2016/17 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division
The 2016/17 NBA regular season will get underway next week, which means it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign. With the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv, we’re going to run through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division, and have you weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic. Having looked at the Atlantic, Northwest, and Central divisions so far, we’re moving on to the Southwest today…
San Antonio Spurs
- 2015/16 record: 67-15
- Over/under for 2016/17: 58.5 wins
- Offseason in review: Added Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon, David Lee, Dejounte Murray, Livio Jean-Charles. Lost Tim Duncan, David West, Boris Diaw, Boban Marjanovic, Matt Bonner, Kevin Martin, Andre Miller.
How many games will the Spurs win?
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Under 58.5 57% (252)
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Over 58.5 43% (187)
Total votes: 439
(App users, click here for Spurs poll)
Houston Rockets
- 2015/16 record: 41-41
- Over/under for 2016/17: 44 wins
- Offseason in review: Added Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Nene, Pablo Prigioni, Tyler Ennis, Chinanu Onuaku. Lost Dwight Howard, Jason Terry, Josh Smith, Terrence Jones, Michael Beasley.
How many games will the Rockets win?
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Over 44 53% (220)
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Under 44 47% (197)
Total votes: 417
(App users, click here for Rockets poll)
Memphis Grizzlies
- 2015/16 record: 42-40
- Over/under for 2016/17: 42.5 wins
- Offseason in review: Added Chandler Parsons, Troy Daniels, James Ennis, Wade Baldwin, Andrew Harrison, Deyonta Davis. Lost Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, Jordan Farmar, P.J. Hairston.
How many games will the Grizzlies win?
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Over 42.5 60% (231)
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Under 42.5 40% (156)
Total votes: 387
(App users, click here for Grizzlies poll)
Dallas Mavericks
- 2015/16 record: 42-40
- Over/under for 2016/17: 38.5 wins
- Offseason in review: Added Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Seth Curry, Quincy Acy. Lost Chandler Parsons, Zaza Pachulia, Raymond Felton, David Lee, Charlie Villanueva.
How many games will the Mavericks win?
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Over 38.5 70% (290)
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Under 38.5 30% (126)
Total votes: 416
(App users, click here for Mavericks poll)
New Orleans Pelicans
- 2015/16 record: 30-52
- Over/under for 2016/17: 37 wins
- Offseason in review: Added Solomon Hill, E’Twaun Moore, Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, Terrence Jones, Cheick Diallo. Lost Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Luke Babbitt, Toney Douglas, Norris Cole, James Ennis.
How many games will the Pelicans win?
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Under 37 71% (268)
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Over 37 29% (110)
Total votes: 378
(App users, click here for Pelicans poll)
Previous voting results:
- Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
- Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
- New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
- Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
- Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
- Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
- Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
- Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
Mavs Pick Up Justin Anderson’s 2017/18 Option
The Mavericks have locked in Justin Anderson‘s salary for the 2017/18 season, exercising their team option on the third year of his rookie contract, per RealGM’s transactions log. The move guarantees Anderson’s $1,579,440 salary for the ’17/18 campaign.
[RELATED: Offseason In Review: Dallas Mavericks]
The deadline for teams to make 2017/18 option decisions on rookie contracts is October 31, but the Mavs didn’t exactly need to take their call on Anderson down to the wire. Although the Virginia product didn’t make a huge impact in his rookie season in Dallas, averaging 3.8 PPG and 2.4 RPG in 55 regular-season contests (11.8 MPG), he appears poised to take on a bigger role as he continues to develop his game.
Anderson’s salary also represents a very small fraction of what the Mavericks will spend on player salaries for the next few seasons. Assuming the cap for 2017/18 rises to at least $102MM, as expected, Anderson’s salary would only represent about 1.5% of that figure.
The 6’6″ forward, who will turn 23 next month, would get another salary bump to about $2.52MM in 2018/19, assuming the Mavs exercise that option next fall. That would put Anderson on track for a contract extension in 2018 or potential restricted free agency in 2019.
Offseason In Review: Dallas Mavericks
Over the next several weeks, Hoops Rumors will be breaking down the 2016 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2016/17 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Dallas Mavericks.
Free agent signings:
- Harrison Barnes: Four years, $94.439MM. Maximum salary contract. Fourth year player option.
- Dirk Nowitzki: Two years, $50MM. Second year team option.
- Dwight Powell: Four years, $37.269MM. Player option.
- Deron Williams: One year, $9MM.
- Seth Curry: Two years, $5.926MM.
- Jonathan Gibson: Three years, minimum salary. Second and third years non-guaranteed.
- Quincy Acy: Two years, minimum salary. Second year non-guaranteed.
Camp invitees:
- Nicolas Brussino: Three years, minimum salary ($100K guaranteed)
- Kyle Collinsworth: Two years, minimum salary ($70K guaranteed)
- Dorian Finney-Smith: Three years, minimum salary ($100K guaranteed)
- Keith Hornsby: One year, minimum salary (summer contract)
- Jameel Warney: One year, minimum salary ($20K guaranteed). Waived.
- C.J. Williams: One year, minimum salary (summer contract)
Trades:
- Acquired Andrew Bogut and Warriors’ 2019 second-round pick from the Warriors in exchange for the Mavericks’ own 2019 second-round pick (protected 31-55).
- Acquired the draft rights to Stanko Barac from the Pacers in exchange for Jeremy Evans, the draft rights to Emir Preldzic, and cash ($3.2MM).
Draft picks:
- 2-46: A.J. Hammons: Signed for three years, $2.606MM. Fully guaranteed.
Departing players:
- Jeremy Evans
- Raymond Felton
- David Lee
- JaVale McGee (waived)
- Zaza Pachulia
- Chandler Parsons
- Charlie Villanueva
Other offseason news:
- Andrew Bogut eligible for contract extension as of October 25.
- Pursued Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside in free agency.
Check out our salary cap snapshot for the Dallas Mavericks right here.
“Always a bridesmaid and never the bride.” That classic phrase sums up what the Mavericks’ offseasons have become the past few years. In 2013, the team set its sights on Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, a year when both were still highly sought after free agents, only to end up with Monta Ellis. In 2015 the franchise let Tyson Chandler depart (for the second time) and targeted DeAndre Jordan, only to have the big man switch gears and after a bizarre psuedo-standoff at his home, rejoin the Clippers. Instead, the Mavs ended up signing Zaza Pachulia. This past summer, Mark Cuban and company had designs on signing Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside, but instead ended up with Harrison Barnes. Notice a disturbing trend here?
One could easily argue that the Warriors’ signing of Kevin Durant ultimately saved Dallas from having an absolutely disastrous summer. If KD doesn’t join the Warriors, Golden State has no reason to let Barnes leave as a free agent or to trade Andrew Bogut, and the Mavs would have been left high and dry as a result of overreaching for players who had no intention of joining the team. While the Bogut acquisition was a solid move for the club, perhaps it may have been better to bottom out for a year rather than fork over the exorbitant contract that the team gave to Barnes.
Dallas essentially chose Barnes over Chandler Parsons, who signed with the Grizzlies this offseason. Given Parsons’ injury woes, I don’t knock the Mavs for balking at offering him a maximum salary contract, but committing that amount of money to Barnes is just as big of a risk. Barnes has been a solid rotational piece for the Warriors throughout his first four NBA seasons, shooting 37.6% on three-pointers and averaging double-digits in points for his career. However, he was inconsistent in the playoffs this past season, no-showing in some key games down the stretch for Golden State. In the 2016 NBA Finals, Barnes shot just 35.2% from the floor, including 31.0% from three-point range, and many of those misses were uncontested shots. Now he’s going to be the focal point of Dallas’ rebuilding plan and have the weight of needing to live up to his contract on his shoulders.
If Parsons wasn’t worthy of this level of investment, I’m not sure how Barnes is. Granted, his numbers should see an uptick based on increased playing time and coach Rick Carlisle‘s ability to squeeze production out of his players, but it is extremely unlikely that the 24-year-old will perform to the level his contract. Adding him seems reactionary on the part of Dallas, with the team needing to do something over the summer to try and change up the formula. I like Barnes as a third-option on a playoff team, but not as one of its primary building blocks, which is what earning $22MM-$25MM per season over the course of his contract forces him to be.
As I previously mentioned, I’m a fan of the team’s acquisition of Bogut for the low cost of a protected second-rounder in what was a clear salary dump for the Warriors. The 31-year-old is an injury risk, but with just one year remaining on his current deal at the very reasonable rate of $11,027,027 for 2016/17, this one could pay off big for Dallas. The Mavs have had a gaping hole in the middle since Chandler departed, and Bogut’s defense, grit and rebounding are all welcome additions. Coupled with the arrival of Barnes, who is a defensive upgrade over Parsons, and a healthy Wesley Matthews, the team should be much improved on that end of the court.
The rest of the Mavs’ offseason signings were solid, if unspectacular. Given the lack of options, re-signing Deron Williams for one-year, $9MM was a decent move. Williams is no longer the star player he was during his time with the Jazz, which seems like a lot longer than six seasons ago, but his 2015/16 numbers of 14.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 5.8 APG to go along with a shooting line of .414/.344/.869 are worth keeping him around on this low-risk pact. However, I’m not as bullish on re-signing Dwight Powell to a four-year, $37.27MM deal. Giving that level of commitment to a player who has been as inconsistent as Powell has been is a risky move that could hamper the team in future offseasons. The 25-year-old has struggled to remain healthy during his brief time in the league and he doesn’t quite fit the mold of where the league is headed regarding how big men are utilized.
One signing that I am excited about for the Mavericks is the addition of Seth Curry, whose two-year, $5.93MM could turn out to be an absolute steal for the team. Curry has looked very sharp thus far in the preseason, averaging 12.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.5 APG while connecting on 53.3% of his shots from beyond the arc. While he’s never likely going to approach the skill level of his brother Stephen Curry,, the younger Curry has a legitimate shot under Carlisle to be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Dallas should focus more on adding undervalued players who can have breakout seasons, rather than chasing the “big fish” every offseason without having a legitimate chance of landing them.
Perhaps the best move the Mavericks made this offseason was re-signing Dirk Nowitzki to a two-year, $50MM deal. The franchise finally did right by the big German, upping the initial deal by $10MM when it became clear that the money wasn’t going to other players. Nowitzki has been the textbook example of unselfish, taking far less than market rate on his past two contracts in order to give the team flexibility to add players around him. Besides rewarding his loyalty, Dallas avoided having its longtime franchise player depart over a lowball offer the way Dwyane Wade ended his tenure in Miami this summer. Kudos to Cuban on the move, its just unfortunate that Nowitzki will likely end his career without having a legitimate shot at winning another NBA title.
After what turned out to be another disappointing summer for the team and its fans, the Mavs enter the new season as an unknown quantity. The team will likely struggle to equal its 42 wins from a season ago and it will take a number of players meeting and exceeding expectations for the club to reach the postseason again. The only true positive I can offer is that Dallas at least has a higher ceiling than it did last year, with the defense likely to be improved and some new blood on the roster. If Barnes can come close to living up to his contract, the Mavs could surprise. But that is a tall order, especially if the young forward succumbs to the pressure of silencing his critics. Hopefully, the franchise will enter next offseason with a more realistic shopping list, which could help it avoid having to play catch-up like it has the past few summers.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mavericks Sign Jaleel Cousins
The Mavericks have added a big man to their roster, announcing in a press release that they’ve signed former South Florida center Jaleel Cousins to a contract. Terms of the agreement aren’t known, but Cousins will almost certainly get a minimum-salary contract with little or no guaranteed money.
Cousins, who went undrafted in June, is the brother of All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins. The younger Cousins averaged 8.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 1.6 BPG in his senior year at South Florida in 2015/16, appearing in all 33 games for the team. He also spent some time with the Mavs in July, playing for the club’s Orlando Summer League squad.
As is the case with many signings of undrafted free agents at this point, the Mavs likely added Cousins with an eye toward having him join their D-League team. Because Cousins wasn’t previously affiliated with another D-League club, he’d be eligible to join the Texas Legends if and when he’s waived by the Mavs.
Dallas is now back at 20 players on its preseason roster, having cut Jameel Warney on Sunday.
Mavs Waive Jameel Warney
The Mavs waived power forward Jameel Warney Sunday, the team announced in an emailed press release.
Warney went undrafted earlier this year out of Stony Brook. The Mavs signed him in late July. He played in three preseason games for the Mavericks, averaging 4.0 points and 2.7 rebounds in 9.2 minutes per contest. It would not be surprising to see Warney find a spot on a D-League roster.
This is the Mavs’ first cut and their roster is still at 19 players, so more are on the way. Warney played well in the summer league, leading Dallas in field goal percentage and averaging 6.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.0 block in 16.5 minutes per contest. He finished his career at Stony Brook as the school’s all-time leader in points (2,132), rebounds (1,275), blocks (275) and games (135).
Andrew Bogut Open To Long-Term Stay With Mavs
Andrew Bogut, traded from the Warriors to the Mavericks over the summer, has yet to play his first regular-season game as a member of his new team. Based on his experience in Dallas so far though, he’s very open to the idea of remaining a Maverick beyond this season. The veteran center tells Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com that he’d love to stay with the Mavs long-term, if he can.
“I’d love to be here,” Bogut said. “The organization is first class. [Mark Cuban is] a great owner. Passionate and wants to win. From everything that I’ve seen, if it remains this way throughout the season, it’s sensational.”
Bogut, who also extensively praised the Dallas-Fort Worth area, cautioned that “things could change throughout the year,” so he’s not getting his signature ready for his next contract with the Mavericks quite yet. Based on his comments, it also sounds like Bogut will wait until next summer to ink his next deal, giving himself a chance to explore the market.
The former first overall pick is eligible for a contract extension as of October 25, but because the Mavs don’t have any cap room available at the moment, he’d only be able to get a small raise on a new deal by signing an extension. There will be no such salary restrictions next July.
While October declarations about future free agency should probably be taken with a grain of salt, Dallas was Bogut’s preferred destination when the Warriors looked to trade him in the offseason. His enthusiasm for the team and the city is also reciprocated by the Mavs. As Howard-Cooper details, head coach Rick Carlisle said he has been “an enormous fan of [Bogut’s] for over a decade.”
“You’re talking about a [Arvydas] Sabonis-, [Bill] Walton-level rim protector, rebounder, passer, play-maker at 7’2″ or whatever his height is,” Carlisle said of Bogut. “I just remember he was such a load to deal with in Milwaukee when he was a central figure in their offense. Not that he’s going to be a central figure [in Dallas], but we want him to be one of the people that creates a real balance when he’s on the floor.”
Bogut is set to earn just over $11MM this season before reaching free agency next offseason at age 32.
Mavs Notes: Nowitzki, Barnes, Hammons
Dirk Nowitzki isn’t thinking about retirement quite yet, but when he does decide to call it a career, he’ll have a standing offer with a team in Germany. As The Dallas Morning News notes, Uli Hoeness, the president of Bayern Munich’s basketball team, told German news outlet Bild that his club would “warmly welcome” Nowitzki if he has interest in an advisor role. Of course, if Nowitzki wants a coaching or front office role after his playing career is over, he should have no shortage of NBA opportunities either, particularly with the Mavericks.
- Matt Mosley of SportsDayDFW.com believes Harrison Barnes will be a fine addition for the Mavericks as long as he doesn’t get consumed with having to live up to his max contract, and suggests A.J. Hammons should get “plenty of chances” to deliver on his upside.
Argentinian Forward Making Case For Roster Spot
- Argentinian small forward Nicolas Brussino has improved his prospects of making the Mavs’ 15-man roster, Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com writes. Brussino, who signed a partially-guaranteed three-year contract this summer, scored 13 points in 23 minutes against the Pelicans in the preseason opener. The fact that Brussino has enrolled in English-speaking classes is another sign that the team is serious about keeping him, Sneed adds.
Players Who Can Veto Trades
No-trade clauses are rare in the NBA, and they became even rarer this offseason, when several players with those clauses in their contracts either called it a career or signed new deals. Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett, who all opted for retirement, had no-trade clauses last season, and so did Dwyane Wade, who doesn’t have the same protection on his new contract with the Bulls.
Nonethless, while the list of players with explicit no-trade clauses may be dwindling, there are still several players each year who have the ability to veto trades. A player who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year contract – or a two-year contract with an option clause – is given no-trade protection, and so is a player who signs an offer sheet and has that offer matched by his previous team. Players who accept qualifying offers after their rookie deals expire can also block deals, though no restricted free agents signed their QOs this year.
Taking into account that list of criteria, here are the players who must give their consent if their teams want to trade them during the 2016/17 league year:
No-trade clauses
- Carmelo Anthony (Knicks)
- LeBron James (Cavaliers): Received no-trade clause on his new contract with Cavs.
- Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks)
Players whose offer sheets were matched
- Allen Crabbe (Trail Blazers)
- Tyler Johnson (Heat)
Players accepting qualifying offers
- None
Players re-signing for one year (or two years including an option)
- Lou Amundson (Knicks) (waived)
- Elton Brand (Sixers) (retired)
- Ian Clark (Warriors)
- Alonzo Gee (Pelicans) (waived)
- Manu Ginobili (Spurs)
- Udonis Haslem (Heat)
- Kris Humphries (Hawks)
- Dahntay Jones (Cavaliers) (waived)
- James Jones (Cavaliers)
- James Michael McAdoo (Warriors)
- Steve Novak (Bucks)
- Marcus Thornton (Wizards)
- Beno Udrih (Pistons)
- Anderson Varejao (Warriors)
- Sasha Vujacic (Knicks)
- Metta World Peace (Lakers)
Information from Basketball Insiders and Yahoo! Sports was used in the creation of this post.
Justin Anderson Talks Mavs Offseason
- In a conversation with Oliver Maroney of Basketball Insiders, Justin Anderson weighed in on the Mavericks‘ offseason additions, noting that Harrison Barnes has already had an impact on him and helped him improve his game.
