Hoops Rumors Originals

How Salary Bumps For Cunningham, Mobley Affect Pistons’, Cavs’ Cap Situations

May 30th, 2025 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, four players signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions that included Rose Rule language, putting each player in position to earn a starting salary worth 30% of the 2025/26 salary cap – rather than 25% – on his new deal if he met certain performance criteria.

Magic forward Franz Wagner and Raptors forward Scottie Barnes weren’t able to cash in and earn that extra 5%, but Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley did so when he won this season’s Defensive Player of the Year award, and Pistons guard Cade Cunningham followed suit by claiming a spot on the All-NBA Third Team.

As our maximum-salary projections show, Mobley and Cunningham are now in line to earn $269,085,780 over the next five seasons instead of the $224,238,150 they would have made if they hadn’t received those end-of-season awards. Those figures, which are based on a projected cap increase of 10%, include a $46,394,100 starting salary for 2025/26, up from $38,661,750.

While it’s great news for the Pistons and the Cavaliers that Cunningham and Mobley played well enough this season to warrant All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year recognition, that extra $7.7MM+ in salary that each team will have to account for could affect how Detroit and Cleveland operate this summer.

Let’s take a look at the Pistons first. If Cunningham had earned his standard 25% of the cap, Detroit could theoretically have created about $24.6MM in cap room by renouncing all their free agents. Depending on Malik Beasley‘s asking price following a season than nearly earned him Sixth Man of the Year honors, that cap room might’ve come in handy, since they only hold Beasley’s Non-Bird rights.

Operating under the cap in that scenario would’ve given the Pistons the ability to offer Beasley more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception while likely leaving some room left over, along with the $8.8MM room exception.

But with Cunningham’s extra $7.7MM+ on the books, the Pistons’ maximum projected cap room in that scenario dips to just $16.9MM. Renouncing their other free agents to offer Beasley that full $16.9MM would still be an option, but it would leave Detroit with no remaining cap room, rendering the team unlikely to be able to re-sign both Dennis Schröder and Tim Hardaway Jr. (or one of the two, and a replacement for the other) using the room exception.

With Cunningham set to make over $46MM, the Pistons’ most likely path now is probably operating over the cap, which would allow them to retain Schröder’s Early Bird rights, Hardaway’s Bird rights, and the bi-annual exception while using the mid-level exception to try to re-sign Beasley. As long as Beasley is willing to accept a deal in that range, taking that route should work out fine for the Pistons.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were projected to operate well into tax apron territory regardless of where Mobley’s new deal came in, but his $7.7MM+ raise will push them far beyond the second apron, significantly increasing their tax bill and making it more challenging to re-sign key free agents like Ty Jerome and Sam Merrill.

Let’s assume Cleveland simply retains its players currently under contract without re-signing any free agents and fills out its roster using its two second-round picks and minimum-salary free agent deals. The increase in the team’s projected tax bill as a result of Mobley’s raise, based on my math, is nearly $46MM. That number would increase further if the team brings back Jerome and/or Merrill.

Again, as long as Cunningham and Mobley continue to play at an All-NBA level, the Pistons and Cavaliers will be happy to pay them the mega-deals they earned with their performances in 2024/25. But those raises will make life a little more complicated for the cap strategists in the two teams’ front offices.

Withdrawal Deadline Looms For NCAA Early Entrants

May 28th, 2025 at 11:52am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for players who declared for the 2025 NBA draft as early entrants to withdraw their names from the pool is June 15 at 4:00 pm Central time.

A player who withdraws from the 2025 draft by that deadline would be eligible to be drafted in a future season — that could happen as early as 2026 if the player declares again as an early entrant or is automatically draft-eligible next year, or he could become draft-eligible in 2027 or beyond.

However, the NCAA sets its own withdrawal deadline each year. While the NBA’s deadline comes 10 days before the start of the draft, the NCAA’s deadline occurs just 10 days after the combine ends. This year, the NCAA’s withdrawal deadline is May 28 (today) at 10:59 pm CT.

A college player who is testing the draft waters could technically put off his decision for another two-and-a-half weeks, but if he withdraws from the draft pool on June 15, he would lose the ability to return to an NCAA program for the 2025/26 season. That route would only make sense for a player who had lined up a non-college opportunity, such as playing in a professional league overseas.

In other words, nearly all of the college players who declared for this year’s draft as early entrants will finalize their decisions on whether to return to school or go pro by the end of the day on Wednesday. As our tracker shows, there are still a number of prospects whose intentions haven’t been confirmed, so we’ll be keeping tabs on any updates that come in over the next 11 hours or so.

Here are a few of the latest updates:

Forward Toibu Lawal is removing his name from the 2025 NBA draft pool and will return to Virginia Tech for his senior year, a source tells Jeff Goodman of The Field of 68 (Twitter link). After transferring from VCU to Virginia Tech for the 2024/25 season, Lawal was a full-time starter, averaging 12.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per game with a .559/.371/.641 shooting line in 30 contests.
Brandon Walker is pulling out of the draft, he tells Jon Chepkevich of DraftExpress (Twitter link). Walker, who has spent the past two seasons playing for Montana State, is still in the transfer portal and plans to announce a commitment to a “high-major program” soon, Chepkevich notes. The 6’7″ forward put up 14.7 PPG and 4.9 RPG with a .528/.386/.545 shooting line as a junior last season.
After withdrawing from the transfer portal earlier this spring, wing Raysean Seamster has now withdrawn from the draft as well and will return to UT Arlington for his senior season, Chepkevich reports (via Twitter). Seamster was a starter for the Mavericks in 2024/25, averaging 11.4 PPG and 4.9 RPG in 30 games (25.7 MPG).

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offer

May 23rd, 2025 at 1:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth whichever of the following amounts is greater:

135% of his prior salary; or 125% of his prior salary, if he signed his contract before the 2023/24 league year.
His minimum salary, plus $200K.

For instance, after earning $2,019,699 this season, Trail Blazers forward Jabari Walker will be eligible for a qualifying offer this season if Portland wants to make him a restricted free agent. What would that qualifying offer be worth?

Well, 135% of Walker’s prior salary would be $2,726,594, but he signed his contract in July 2022, which means the relevant calculation here would be 125% of his prior salary. That works out to $2,524,624. Walker projects to have a minimum salary worth $2,378,870 in 2025/26. Adding $200K to that figure gets us to $2,578,870.

Walker’s qualifying offer would be worth the greater amount of those two: $2,578,870.

Walker’s minimum-salary projection is based on an estimated 10% salary cap increase. If the cap were to only increase by 5% next season, his projected minimum salary would be just $2,270,736. Adding $200K to that figure would work out to $2,470,736, so in that scenario, 125% of his prior salary would actually be the larger amount of the two and would be his qualifying offer.

It’s not a certainty yet that the cap will increase by the maximum 10%, so Walker’s qualifying offer projection is tentative for now. But as long as the cap rises by at least 7.5%, that QO would be based on $200K plus his minimum, not 125% of his prior salary.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. Under the previous CBA, the qualifying offer for a first overall pick was 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it was 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. Those numbers will increase to 140% and 160%, respectively, under the new CBA, beginning when the 2023 draft class reaches restricted free agency in 2027.

The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2021, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for some RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. Certain players who meet – or fail to meet – the “starter criteria,” which we break down in a separate glossary entry, become eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers. Here’s how the starter criteria affects QOs:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
- Note: In 2025, the value of this QO will be $7,976,830.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
- Note: In 2025, the value of this QO will be $8,741,210.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
- Note: In 2025, the value of this QO will be $5,386,773.

Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga is one example of a player who falls into the first group, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria this year. The No. 7 overall pick in 2021, Kuminga will be eligible this offseason for a QO worth $7,976,830 instead of $10,240,287, the amount for his draft slot.

Conversely, Sixers wing Quentin Grimes (a former No. 25 overall pick) met the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO worth $8,741,210 instead of $6,311,825.

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, assuming he has at least four years of NBA experience. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

Here are a few more details related to qualifying offers:

A team that issues a qualifying offer can unilaterally withdraw that offer anytime up until July 13.
A player who receives a qualifying offer has a deadline of October 1 to accept it. He and the team can agree to extend that deadline.
A different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with a small portion (known as the “maximum two-way protection amount”) guaranteed. For 2025/26, that partial guarantee projects to be worth $85,300.
A player who is coming off a two-year, two-way deal; has already been on two-way deals with his current team for at least two seasons; or has accumulated four years of NBA service would be eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract, with a small portion (known as the “two-way QO protection amount”) guaranteed. For 2025/26, that partial guarantee projects to be worth $102,300.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

Poll: Who Will Win Eastern Conference Finals?

May 20th, 2025 at 3:55pm CST by Luke Adams

A year after falling to Indiana in the 2024 Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Knicks will get another shot at them in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. Star guard Jalen Brunson is looking forward to the opportunity to take advantage of the second chance.

“I mean, it still kind of bothers me,” Brunson said on Monday, referring to last year’s series, per Zach Braziller of The New York Post. “Obviously it was a missed opportunity last year playing them at home in Game 7, regardless of who we had out there.”

The version of the Knicks that finished last season looked far different from the group that will take the court on Wednesday in Game 1 of the Eastern Finals. The 2023/24 roster didn’t feature Karl-Anthony Towns or Mikal Bridges, the club’s two major 2024 offseason additions. Plus, as Brunson alludes to, last year’s team was incredibly banged up, with key players like Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson unavailable for that do-or-die Game 7 and OG Anunoby unable to play more than five minutes.

This time around, the Knicks are fully healthy and are riding high after a strong first-round showing against the upstart Pistons and an unlikely second-round upset of the defending champion Celtics.

Just about everyone had penciled in an Eastern Finals showdown between the 64-win Cavaliers and 61-win Celtics, but New York and Indiana played spoiler and now the Knicks will enter their third-round series holding home court advantage and as betting favorites. BetOnline.ag lists New York as a -160 favorite to advance to the NBA Finals.

Knicks fans have plenty of reasons for optimism. After all, last year’s battle between these two teams nearly went their way even without Randle’s scoring, without Robinson’s elite rebounding, and without Towns and Bridges, who have been two of New York’s most valuable contributors in this postseason. The front office’s vision – Brunson and Towns serving as offensive engines while Bridges, Anunoby, and Josh Hart terrorize opponents on defense – has come together perfectly in recent weeks.

These Pacers, conversely, look pretty similar to last year’s team. In fact, with the exception of Bennedict Mathurin (injured for the 2024 playoffs) replacing Isaiah Jackson (injured for the 2025 playoffs), the Pacers have the exact same top nine players in minutes played that they did last postseason.

Skeptics would also point out that Indiana has benefited in a major way from injury luck over the past two springs. Bucks point guard Damian Lillard went down with an Achilles tear in the first round of this year’s postseason, while several Cavaliers – including Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter – were battling health problems in the second round.

But underestimating this Pacers team would be a mistake. Indiana was doing just fine against healthy versions of Milwaukee and Cleveland before those injuries occurred and has a better overall net rating (+5.5) during these playoffs than that of the Knicks (+0.1). The Pacers are especially dangerous when they’re dictating the speed of the game, which they’ll be looking to do against a Knicks squad that ranked 26th in the NBA in pace during the regular season (Indiana was seventh).

The Pacers have also been getting a balanced offensive attack from their starting lineup and bench this spring. All five starters are averaging at least 14.6 points per game, led by Pascal Siakam (18.8 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (17.5 PPG and a playoff-leading 9.3 APG), with Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin combining for 28 points per contest off the bench. Indiana’s 117.3 playoff offensive rating is easily the best mark of any of the four remaining teams.

The last time the Knicks appeared in the NBA Finals in 1999, they defeated the Pacers in the Eastern Finals to get there. The Pacers returned the favor a year later, beating the Knicks in the Eastern Finals to represent the conference in the NBA Finals. They haven’t gotten back since. Whichever team wins this series and makes their first Finals appearance in a quarter-century will have to get past an old rival to do it.

We want to know what you think. Which team will win the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Poll: Who Will Win Western Conference Finals?

May 19th, 2025 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

By blowing out Denver on Sunday in the lone Game 7 of the NBA postseason’s second round, Oklahoma City set up a showdown of Northwest rivals in the 2025 Western Conference Finals.

The Timberwolves went just 49-33 during the regular season, which was the 10th-best record in the league and was barely enough to earn a guaranteed playoff spot in the West — Minnesota moved into the conference’s No. 6 seed on the last day of the season. But the Wolves have looked more dangerous in the postseason than their regular season record would suggest, winning 10 of 12 games against star-studded Lakers and Warriors teams in the first two rounds.

Skeptics will argue that the Lakers were still adjusting to a midseason revamping of their roster and that the Warriors would’ve been a far more formidable opponent if Stephen Curry hadn’t strained his hamstring in Game 1 of the second round. Still, the Wolves beat the teams in front of them and looked good doing it — their 114.6 postseason offensive rating ranks fifth among 16 playoff teams, while their 106.8 defensive rating is second-best.

Anthony Edwards has proven to be an effective postseason closer, averaging 26.5 points per game in the first two rounds, while Julius Randle (23.9 PPG, 5.9 APG) has played some of his best basketball of the season in the playoffs.

Rudy Gobert wasn’t part of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation this year, but he has shown against L.A. and Golden State that he still deserves to be considered one of the league’s best rim protectors and defensive anchors. And the Wolves are getting necessary contributions from the rest of their eight-man rotation too, including Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Still, Minnesota will enter the Western Finals as a significant underdog against the 68-14 Thunder. Despite the fact that it took Oklahoma City seven games to finish off Denver in round two, oddsmakers and bettors love the club’s chances of advancing to the NBA Finals — BetOnline.ag currently OKC listed as a -355 favorite.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way for Oklahoma City and has found his rhythm this spring following an up-and-down start to the postseason. After making just 18-of-68 shots from the field (26.5%) in his first three games against Memphis, Gilgeous-Alexander has put up 30.8 points per contest on 53.1% shooting in his last eight outings.

Jalen Williams (19.6 PPG on .440/.254/.750 shooting) hasn’t been as effective in the playoffs as he was in the regular season, but the Thunder’s depth has more than made up for it. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe have all appeared in each of OKC’s 11 playoff contests and are averaging between 5.3 and 15.7 points per game.

The defense that ranked No. 1 in the NBA during the regular season hasn’t let up in the postseason either. The Thunder had the best first-round defensive rating (97.6) out of 16 teams and ranked first among eight clubs in the second round with a 103.9 mark. And even though it took seven games to get past Denver, Oklahoma City had the best second-round net rating (+9.9) of any team, outscoring the Nuggets by 64 points in the series.

Even though the Thunder finished 19 games ahead of the Timberwolves in the regular season standings and will have home-court advantage, this series could be a very competitive one. The two teams split their four regular season matchups this season, with one of those games going into overtime and two more decided by single digits. And the Timberwolves probably hold the slight edge in postseason experience, having been in the Western Finals last spring too.

We want to know what you think. Who will win this series and represent the Western Conference in the 2025 NBA Finals? Are you counting on the Thunder to come through or do you think the Wolves will pull off the upset? How many games do you figure it’ll take?

Vote in our poll and head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Early NBA Salary Guarantee Dates For 2025/26

May 17th, 2025 at 1:24pm CST by Luke Adams

An NBA player who has a non-guaranteed salary for a given season will, by default, receive his full guarantee if he remains under contract through January 7 of that league year. Because the league-wide salary guarantee date is January 10, a player must clear waivers before that date if a team wants to avoid being on the hook for his full salary.

However, a number of players who have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2025/26 have earlier trigger dates. Those players will receive either their full guarantee or a partial guarantee on certain dates before January 7, assuming they’re not waived.

These dates are fairly malleable — if a player and team reach an agreement, a salary guarantee deadline can be pushed back.

For example, if a player’s contract calls for him to receive his full guarantee on June 27, his team could ask him to move that date to the first or second week of July to get a better sense of what will happen in free agency before making a final decision. The player doesn’t have to agree, but it might be in his best interest to push back his guarantee date rather than simply being waived.

Those agreements between a player and team aren’t always reported right away, so our list of early salary guarantee dates is a tentative one. When a player’s salary guarantee date passes, our assumption is that he received his guarantee, but it’s possible he and his team negotiated a new guarantee date that simply hasn’t been made public yet. We’ll update the info below as necessary in the coming months.

Here are the early salary guarantee dates for 2025/26:

(Note: More players, particularly those with team options, are expected to be added to this list as the offseason progresses.)

June 29

Anthony Gill (Wizards): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,546,675) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
Maxwell Lewis (Nets): Partial guarantee ($100,000) increases to full guarantee ($2,221,677). (❌)
Nick Richards (Suns): Non-guaranteed salary ($5,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 30

Johnny Juzang (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,840,518) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
Cody Martin (Suns): Non-guaranteed salary ($8,680,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
Leonard Miller (Timberwolves): Partial guarantee ($1,110,839) increases to full guarantee ($2,221,677).
Svi Mykhailiuk (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($3,675,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 1

Colby Jones (Thunder): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes partially guaranteed ($1,110,839). (❌)
Rayan Rupert (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 7

Andre Jackson (Bucks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes fully guaranteed.
Jock Landale (Rockets): Non-guaranteed salary ($8,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
Brandon Williams (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,270,735) becomes partially guaranteed ($200,000).

July 8

A.J. Green (Bucks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,301,587) becomes fully guaranteed.

July 9

Jamison Battle (Raptors): Partial guarantee ($977,689) increases to full guarantee ($1,955,377).

July 15

Chris Livingston (Bucks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
Jordan Miller (Clippers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,191,897) becomes partially guaranteed ($350,000).
Josh Okogie (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($7,750,000) becomes fully guaranteed.
Zion Williamson (Pelicans): Partial guarantee ($7,889,218) increases to full guarantee ($39,446,090).

July 20

Toumani Camara (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes fully guaranteed.
Shake Milton (Lakers): Non-guaranteed salary ($3,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed.

July 23

Antonio Reeves (Pelicans): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,955,377) becomes partially guaranteed ($977,689). (❌)

July 25

Jaden Springer (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,349,578) becomes partially guaranteed ($400,000).

August 1

Julian Champagnie (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($3,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed.
Duop Reath (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,221,677) becomes fully guaranteed.

Day before the NBA regular season

Adem Bona (Sixers): Partial guarantee ($977,689) increases to full guarantee ($1,955,377).

First day of NBA regular season

Keon Johnson (Nets): Partial guarantee ($271,614) increases to $760,520.
Jordan Miller (Clippers): Partial guarantee ($350,000) increases to $1,095,949.
Neemias Queta (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($1,174,789) increases to full guarantee ($2,349,578).
Jaden Springer (Jazz): Partial guarantee ($400,000) increases to $600,000.
Jordan Walsh (Celtics): Partial guarantee ($200,000) increases to $1,110,839.
Jalen Wilson (Nets): Partial guarantee ($88,075) increases to $381,695.

First day of team’s regular season

Terence Davis (Kings): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,546,675) becomes partially guaranteed ($250,000).
Moussa Diabate (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,270,735) becomes partially guaranteed ($250,000).
Pelle Larsson (Heat): Partial guarantee ($977,689) increases to full guarantee ($1,955,377).
Brandon Williams (Mavericks): Partial guarantee ($200,000) increases to $850,000.
Jeenathan Williams (Rockets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,270,735) becomes fully guaranteed.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Who Will Win Thunder/Nuggets Game 7?

May 16th, 2025 at 9:11pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Thunder and Nuggets have played a dramatic, hard-fought series, with neither team able to take a commanding lead. After winning Games 4 and 5, Oklahoma City looked poised to put the series away, but Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Denver’s role players responded in Game 6, forcing a decisive Game 7, which will be played on Sunday at Oklahoma City.

The battle of the MVP candidates has been all anyone could have hoped for through six games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game, while Jokic has responded with 29.8 PPG and 14.7 RPG.

Both teams have five players averaging at least 10 points per night, with Denver’s Murray (22.0 PPG) the lone player outside of the top two stars to crack the 20 PPG threshold. While the Thunder have gotten well-rounded contributions, Jalen Williams has struggled as the team’s second option, averaging 16.5 PPG on 33.7% from the field.

Even more concerning for the Thunder are the shooting woes of its top three players. None of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, or Chet Holmgren are hitting over 27% from three, though their offense has been bolstered by Alex Caruso knocking down 43.8% of his threes in addition to his typical disruptive defense.

One of the most important factors coming into the game will be the health of Denver’s do-it-all forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon was in and out of the final two minutes of Game 6 after injuring his hamstring trying to save a ball tipped away by Holmgren, an injury that has been diagnosed as a left hamstring strain, leaving his status very much in doubt.

Losing Gordon would be a massive blow to the Nuggets’ chances. In addition to his always-excellent defense, the veteran forward has come up clutch all series. He hit the game-winning shot in Game 1 and had multiple clutch baskets in Game 3, including a three-pointer to send the game to overtime with 28 seconds left in regulation and a mid-range jumper with a minute left in overtime to push the lead to nine points.

Depth has generally favored Oklahoma City, which has gotten positive minutes from Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, and Aaron Wiggins. However, the Nuggets have found some answers in Christian Braun and, in Game 6, Julian Strawther, whose 15 second-half points were critical to earning the Nuggets some much-needed momentum.

The two teams have managed to play to their strengths for the most part, with the Thunder forcing a 14.3% turnover rate from the Nuggets while Denver maintains a 4% edge in offensive rebounding rate.

The Thunder are the second-youngest team in the league and occasionally that lack of experience has reared its head, with the most glaring example being in Game 1, when they intentionally fouled the Nuggets while up three with Jokic on the bench and no timeouts to get him back in the game. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have the most Game 7 experience over the last 10 years of any team outside of the Celtics.

The Thunder finished 18 games ahead of Denver in the regular season standings and the oddsmakers favor them trying to win at home. According to BetOnline.ag, the Thunder are currently 8.5-point favorites.

We want to know what you think. Will the Thunder be able to hold off the former champion Nuggets, or will Denver’s experience prove too much for the Thunder to overcome?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: Draft Lottery Changes

May 13th, 2025 at 8:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Is it time for another change to the draft lottery?

That’s what many people are thinking after seeing the Mavericks leapfrog 10 other teams and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes on Monday.

If not for a wave of injuries – and of course, the controversial Luka Doncic trade – Dallas wouldn’t have even held any lottery combinations. The Mavs’ good fortune comes one year after the Hawks jumped from No. 10 to the top spot.

The current lottery format was introduced in 2019, in which the teams with the three worst records have an equal chance – 14 percent – of getting the top pick. Since that time, no team entering the lottery at No. 1 has gained the top pick, though four teams in either the second or third spot has had the winning combination.

With the lottery determining the top four slots, the team with the worst record has dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 three consecutive times – the Pistons twice and this time the Jazz. It can be argued that Utah, which overtly tanked for a good portion of the season, deserved its fate.

And that’s the issue. The current system was designed to discourage tanking, as was the creation of the play-in tournament to get more teams into the postseason. But it certainly hasn’t erased that strategy by struggling or rebuilding franchises.

There could be ways to make the lottery seem more fair. Perhaps not allowing a team to win the lottery more than once in a short span. Similarly, there could be a rule against a team moving up from its slot more than once or twice in a certain time frame. It certainly seems unfair that San Antonio has wound up with the top pick, the No. 4 pick and the No. 2 pick in three straight drafts.

The lottery could also be changed so that teams near the bottom of it can’t get the No. 1 pick. Any number of tweaks could be considered and it appears the current system could use some.

That brings us to today’s topic: How do you feel about the current lottery format? Should changes be made? If so, what should be done to make it fairer?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Full 2025 NBA Draft Order

May 12th, 2025 at 7:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2025 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 25 or 26, or in the days leading up to the draft — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2025 NBA draft order:

First round

Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs
Philadelphia 76ers
Charlotte Hornets
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans
Brooklyn Nets
Toronto Raptors
Phoenix Suns (via Rockets)
Portland Trail Blazers
Chicago Bulls
Atlanta Hawks (from Kings)
San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Magic)
Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
Washington Wizards (from Grizzlies)
Brooklyn Nets (from Bucks)
Miami Heat (from Warriors)
Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
Brooklyn Nets (from Lakers via Hawks)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Pacers)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
Orlando Magic (from Nuggets)
Brooklyn Nets (from Knicks)
Brooklyn Nets (from Rockets)
Boston Celtics
Phoenix Suns (from Cavaliers)
Los Angeles Clippers (from Thunder)

Second round

Minnesota Timberwolves (from Jazz)
Boston Celtics (from Wizards)
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets (from Pelicans)
Philadelphia 76ers
Brooklyn Nets
Detroit Pistons (from Raptors)
Indiana Pacers (from Spurs)
Toronto Raptors (from Trail Blazers)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Suns via Wizards)
Golden State Warriors (from Heat)
Sacramento Kings (from Bulls)
Utah Jazz (from Mavericks)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Hawks)
Chicago Bulls (from Kings)
Orlando Magic
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pistons)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Warriors)
Cleveland Cavaliers (from Bucks)
New York Knicks (from Grizzlies)
Los Angeles Clippers (from Timberwolves)
Phoenix Suns (from Nuggets)
Utah Jazz (from Clippers)
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Lakers
~~New York Knicks~~
- Note: The Knicks forfeited this second-round pick due to free agency gun-jumping.
Memphis Grizzlies (from Rockets)
Orlando Magic (from Celtics)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Phoenix Suns (from Thunder via Rockets)

2025 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 12th, 2025 at 1:53pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2025 NBA draft lottery will take place on Monday evening prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 6:00 pm Central time.

While last year’s draft class had no clear-cut frontrunner to be the first player off the board heading into lottery night, there’s a consensus No. 1 pick in this year’s class: Duke forward Cooper Flagg. As Chris Mannix of SI.com tweets, it’s safe to assume whichever team lands the first overall pick in Monday’s lottery will be keeping it and drafting Flagg rather than entertaining trade proposals.

“If we don’t get him, I just hope he winds up in the (other) conference,” one lottery team executive told Mannix.

While Dylan Harper of Rutgers is considered a strong consolation prize at No. 2, the presence of a surefire No. 1 choice at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2025 lottery especially meaningful, with teams holding out hope that their logo will be on the final card revealed by the NBA on Monday evening.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Monday’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2025 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
Charlotte Hornets
New Orleans Pelicans
Philadelphia 76ers
- Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (36.0%).
Brooklyn Nets
Toronto Raptors
San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets (from Suns)
Portland Trail Blazers
Dallas Mavericks
Chicago Bulls
Atlanta Hawks (from Kings)
- Note: The Kings will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.8%).
San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks)

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Pelicans (12.5%), Sixers (10.5%), Nets (9.0%), Raptors (7.5%), and Spurs (6.7% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Despite the flattened odds, there were few major lottery-night surprises in the years leading up to 2024. The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson, but in each of the next four years, a team in the top three of the lottery standings won the No. 1 pick.

That streak ended a year ago, however, when the Hawks moved up from the No. 10 spot in the lottery standings to claim the No. 1 overall pick, which eventually became Zaccharie Risacher. Perhaps we’ll get another major surprise in this year’s event.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Sixers traded their 2025 first-round pick to the Thunder, but will keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 63.9% chance that will happen and a 36.1% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to Oklahoma City. If Philadelphia retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2026 first-round pick (top-four protected) to the Thunder.

The Rockets have acquired the Suns‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (28.3%), but has a 17.3% chance to move into the top four.

The Kings will owe the Hawks their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 12, which is highly likely. There’s a 92.9% chance that pick will be at No. 13 and a 3.3% chance of it moving down to No. 14. By comparison, there’s only a 3.8% chance that it will move into the top four, allowing Sacramento to keep it.

Finally, the Hawks‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will be sent to the Spurs. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick, but with a 3.4% chance it will turn into a top-four pick, San Antonio has a shot at moving up in the lottery with two separate first-rounders.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

Utah Jazz
- On stage: Ashley Smith (team co-owner)
- Drawing room: Justin Zanik (general manager)
Washington Wizards
- On stage: Bub Carrington
- Drawing room: Will Dawkins (general manager)
Charlotte Hornets
- On stage: Charles Lee (head coach)
- Drawing room: Rick Schnall (co-chairman and governor)
New Orleans Pelicans
- On stage: Zion Williamson
- Drawing room: Joe Dumars (executive VP of basketball operations)
Philadelphia 76ers
- On stage: Jared McCain
- Drawing room: Ned Cohen (assistant GM)
Brooklyn Nets
- On stage: Jordi Fernandez (head coach)
- Drawing room: Makar Gevorkian (VP of basketball operations alignment and strategic planning)
Toronto Raptors
- On stage: Masai Ujiri (vice chairman and president)
- Drawing room: Bobby Webster (general manager)
San Antonio Spurs
- On stage: Mitch Johnson (head coach)
- Drawing room: Brian Wright (general manager)
Houston Rockets
- On stage: Hakeem Olajuwon (former Rockets player)
- Drawing room: Sam Strantz (senior team counsel)
Portland Trail Blazers
- On stage: Toumani Camara
- Drawing room: Andrae Patterson (assistant GM)
Dallas Mavericks
- On stage: Rolando Blackman (team ambassador)
- Drawing room: Matt Riccardi (assistant GM)
Chicago Bulls
- On stage: Matas Buzelis
- Drawing room: Faizan Hasnany (manager of basketball strategy and analytics)
Sacramento Kings
- On stage: Keon Ellis
- Drawing room: Alvin Gentry (VP of basketball engagement)

Although they’ll receive the Kings’ first-round pick if it lands outside the top 12, the Hawks won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.

The Thunder, who will receive the Sixers’ pick if it’s outside of the top six, won’t have an on-stage representative for the same reason. However, executive VP and GM Sam Presti will be in the drawing room.

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