Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

June 19th, 2017 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

Few NBA franchises have been more successful in the 21st century than the Mavericks, who finished at .500 or better for 16 consecutive seasons, earning 15 playoff berths, 13 postseason series wins, and a championship during that stretch.

However, the 2016/17 campaign was a disappointment, as the Mavs missed the playoffs by a wide margin, finishing with a 33-49 record. It looks like it’s time for a rebuild in Dallas, but that decision is complicated by the fact that longtime star Dirk Nowitzki likely only has another year or two left in him. After years of building contending rosters and pursuing win-now upgrades, will the Mavs be willing to patiently retool their roster as Nowitzki’s career winds down?

Here are five key questions facing the Mavs as the offseason begins:

1. Will the Mavs ask Dirk Nowitzki to take a pay cut?

A year ago, the Mavericks voluntarily gave Nowitzki more money that the two sides had initially agreed upon, bumping the total value of his two-year contract from $40MM up to $50MM, since it didn’t hamper the team’s ability to make other moves. A year later, Dallas may ask Nowitzki to return that favor.

The German big man, who celebrates his 39th birthday on Monday, is coming off his least productive season since his rookie year, having seen his averages slip to 14.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and a .437 FG%. He also missed 28 games due to injuries. Now, the Mavs have to decide whether or not to exercise a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18.

Exercising that team option would leave the Mavs without any cap room, and based on the players they’ve been linked to in various reports and rumors, it doesn’t sound as if they’re necessarily planning on operating as an over-the-cap team. That suggests Dallas may decline Nowitzki’s option and re-sign him at a lesser rate. The amount of the pay cut that Dirk is willing to take could dictate how much spending flexibility the Mavs have this summer.

2. How big will Nerlens Noel‘s new contract be?

Along with Nowitzki, Noel is the other Maverick without a guaranteed contract for 2017/18 who will nonetheless take up a significant chunk of cap room. Having acquired the former sixth overall pick at the deadline, the Mavs appear to regard Noel as their center of the future, and appear to have every intention of retaining him.

Noel, who is eligible for restricted free agency, currently has a cap hold just shy of $11MM. Assuming he intends to re-sign with the Mavs, the team can keep that somewhat modest figure on its books until it uses up the rest of its cap room, and then can go over the cap to lock up Noel. However, if another suitor swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet for Noel, perhaps one worth the max, Dallas’ flexibility may be compromised.

However Noel’s free agency plays out, I don’t expect the Mavs to let him get away, but it will be interesting to see what his new contract looks like. Dallas already has Harrison Barnes on a maximum salary deal, and neither he nor Noel have ever received serious All-Star consideration. With Wesley Matthews also on a sizable contract, the Mavs will have to be careful about paying too many solid starters like they’re franchise players.

3. Will Wesley Matthews be shopped in trade talks?

One way to make a big deal for Noel more palatable would be to move Matthews in a trade that cuts costs. However, Matthews’ trade value isn’t high.

The former Blazer will earn nearly $17.9MM in 2017/18, with an $18.6MM+ player option for the following year. The Portland version of Matthews would have been worth that sort of money, but the Dallas version has seen his shooting numbers decline substantially. A 44.3% shooter (39.3% on three-pointers) before joining the Mavs, Matthews has made just 39.0% of his field goals and 36.2% of his threes over the last two years.

With Barnes now doing many of the things the Mavs initially expected of Matthews, the Marquette product has become more expendable. Dallas wouldn’t get a ton in return for Matthews in a trade, but even just getting out from under his salary would create a new series of possibilities for the club, so it’s worth considering.

4. Who will play point guard for the Mavs?

For the last several years, the Mavs have been searching for long-term answers at the point guard and center positions. With Noel expected to remain in Dallas, the club has a solid option at center. So, what about a point guard?

The free agent market offers plenty of point guard options this summer, and by the sounds of it, the Mavs are exploring the possibility of splashing in that end of the pool. A recent report suggested that the team is viewed as a serious candidate to sign Jrue Holiday, along with his brother Justin Holiday. Signing Jrue would likely require at least $20MM in cap room, so the Mavs’ ability to make a serious play for him – or another point guard of his caliber – may hinge on what happens with Nowitzki, Noel, and Matthews.

Dallas could also delve into the trade market, with another recent report indicating that Ricky Rubio is one trade candidate on the club’s radar. Rubio may be viewed as an underwhelming solution to the Mavs’ point guard problem, but if he continues to play like he did down the stretch in 2016/17, he’d be a worthwhile investment — after the All-Star break, Rubio averaged an impressive 16.0 PPG and 10.5 APG with a .420/.353/.917 shooting line. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly loaded with three-point shooters, so a deal involving Matthews might make some sense for both sides.

5. What will the Mavs do with their lottery pick?

Of course, even if the Mavs don’t land a veteran point guard via trade or free agency, they’re in a great spot to add a prospect at the position. This year’s draft class is heavy on promising point guards, and while the No. 9 pick won’t be high enough to land Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, or De’Aaron Fox, the Mavs may be in position to nab Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

The Knicks, with the No. 8 pick, are a good bet to take one of those two players off the board before Dallas is on the clock, but I’d expect at least one of them to be available. We don’t know for sure that the Mavs are high on both Ntilikina and Smith, and it’s possible the club would rather go in another direction with that pick, such as selecting Lauri Markkanen as Nowitzki’s eventual replacement. But drafting a young point guard and perhaps acquiring a stop-gap veteran (such as Rubio or a second- or third-tier free agent) would be a great way to address a position that has given the Mavs trouble in recent years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Harrison Barnes ($23,112,004)
Wesley Matthews ($17,884,176)
Dwight Powell ($9,003,125)
J.J. Barea ($3,903,900)
Seth Curry ($3,028,410)
Devin Harris ($1,339,662) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
A.J. Hammons ($1,312,611)
Gal Mekel ($315,758) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $59,899,646

Player Options

None

Team Options

Dirk Nowitzki ($25,000,000)
DeAndre Liggins ($1,577,230)¹
Yogi Ferrell ($1,312,611)
Total: $27,889,841

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Devin Harris ($3,062,884) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.
Salah Mejri ($1,471,382)²
Nicolas Brussino ($1,312,611)³
Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,312,611)⁴
Jarrod Uthoff ($1,312,611)⁵
Total: $8,472,099

Restricted Free Agents

Nerlens Noel ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $10,961,225 cap hold)
Total: $10,961,225

Cap Holds

No. 9 overall pick ($2,681,900)
Total: $2,681,900

Trade Exceptions

Andrew Bogut TPE ($6,642,537) — Expires 2/23/18
Justin Anderson TPE ($1,514,160) — Expires 2/23/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $34,340,379

The Mavericks have six fully guaranteed contracts on their books. Adding cap charges for their first-round pick and five empty roster spots brings their total team salary to $66,659,621. That would create enough flexibility to pursue a maximum salary player, but it also doesn’t account for players like Noel or Nowitzki, who will almost certainly be back. So, barring cost-cutting trades, Dallas figures to have less cap room than that when July begins.

Footnotes:

Merji’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.
Liggins’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($26,773) after June 24 if team option is exercised.
Brussino’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Finney-Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after July 6.
Uthoff’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200,000) after July 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

June 18th, 2017 at 9:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks aggressively pursued win-now roster upgrades in the summer of 2016, acquiring Derrick Rose in a trade with the Bulls and signing Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee a couple weeks later in free agency. Rose was so bullish on the new-look Knicks that he optimistically referred to them as a “super-team” alongside the Warriors last offseason, an assertion that looks even more misguided now than it did at the time.

Not only did the Knicks miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season, but the team actually won fewer games (31) than it did in 2015/16 (32). The 2016/17 campaign was filled with indignities for the storied franchise, ranging from Charles Oakley being ejected and banned from Madison Square Garden to Phil Jackson publicly criticizing his highest-paid player and top scorer, Carmelo Anthony.

With the offseason underway in New York, the Knicks will be looking to repair their image off the court in addition to finding ways to improve the product on the court. Here are five key questions facing the club:

1. What will happen with Carmelo Anthony?

Having tired of subtlety, Phil Jackson suggested outright at season’s end that Anthony, the face of the franchise for the last several years, might be better off with another team. He’s not necessarily wrong — the relationship between Anthony and the Knicks seems to have run its course, and if the club is prepared to acknowledge that a rebuild is necessary, it makes sense for Carmelo to pursue a championship elsewhere. Still, it’s the sort of comment rarely made publicly by a team executive, particularly since it could negatively impact his player’s trade value.

Despite the fact that he’s still a reliable scorer, Anthony’s value wasn’t overly high even before Jackson torpedoed it, since his contract is an onerous one, and his 15% trade kicker only makes his salary more difficult to move around. Carmelo also holds a no-trade clause, meaning that his future is ultimately in his own hands, but he appears to be increasingly open to a move, perhaps to a team like the Clippers or Cavaliers.

The Knicks are unlikely to receive too appealing a package in any Anthony deal, and trading with an over-the-cap team like L.A. and Cleveland would mean taking back a sizable chunk of salary to meet the CBA’s trade rules. But at this point, both sides could use a fresh start, and it would be somewhat surprising to see Carmelo still wearing a Knicks uniform next fall.

2. What about the Knicks’ other big contracts?

Anthony’s $26.24MM cap hit is easily the highest on the Knicks’ books for 2017/18, but the team also has two more players earning eight-digit salaries whose long-term futures in New York are uncertain.

Joakim Noah ($17.765MM in 2017/18, plus two more years) had a disastrous first year with the Knicks after signing a $72MM pact with the team. He struggled to produce during the first half of the season, battled injuries in the second half, and capped off the year by receiving a 20-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program. Noah has negative trade value, and now is not the time to stretch his contract to gain cap room, so the Knicks’ best bet is to hope he bounces back when he returns from his suspension in the fall and rebuilds his value.

Unlike Noah, Courtney Lee ($11.75MM in ’17/18, plus two more years) would have some value on the trade market as a three-and-D wing veteran who converted more than 40% of his long-distance attempts in 2016/17. New York won’t trade Lee just to trade him, but he made more sense as a complementary piece on a win-now roster than he does for the current iteration of the Knicks, so the club will likely consider moving him for the right offer in the coming weeks.

3. Is everything okay with Kristaps Porzingis?

With Anthony on the trade block and the Knicks apparently – and reluctantly – ready to embrace a rebuild, it seems logical that the team would be focused on keeping Porzingis happy. The former fourth overall pick, who is still just 21 years old, looks like a franchise cornerstone, and a player worth building around.

The Knicks’ dysfunction didn’t sit well with Porzingis though, prompting the Latvian big man to skip his exit meeting with the franchise and head back to his home country for the summer. The Knicks are extremely unlikely to trade Porzingis – or even to seriously consider it – but if he’s going to be a key piece of the franchise for the next five to 10 years, fence-mending may be required. The Knicks’ front office needs to prove that the Carmelo situation was an aberration, and not a preview of how the team will treat its stars going forward.

4. How will the Knicks address the point guard spot?

The 2016/17 season was Derrick Rose‘s best as a scorer since his All-Star days from 2009-12, but his three-point shot was worse than ever – in the rare instances he shot from deep – and he wasn’t a great facilitator during his first, and possibly only, season in New York. Rose’s agent has suggested his client wants to re-sign with the Knicks, but if he wants anything close to the $21MM+ he earned this past season, the team would probably be wise to move on.

Reports in recent months have suggested that there’s some support within the Knicks’ organization for pursuing a veteran free agent point guard, with Jrue Holiday among the players mentioned. But if the Knicks are serious about running the triangle in 2017/18, it’s not clear how much interest they’ll get from those top free agents. It may make more sense to draft a point guard prospect and teach that player the triangle from the get-go.

5. How will the Knicks use their lottery pick?

That brings us to the Knicks’ lottery pick, which landed at No. 8. This year’s draft class has a strong group of 10 to 12 players at the top, so New York should land a promising prospect, and there’s a good chance that prospect will be a point guard.

Depending on how the first seven picks play out, it’s possible that the Knicks will have their pick of Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and Malik Monk at No. 8. Smith and Ntilikina are more traditional point guards, while Monk is a combo guard who can handle the ball, but is more of a scorer and shooter than a facilitator.

There’s no guarantee that Smith, Ntilikina, and Monk will all be available when the Knicks are on the clock, but at least one or two should be. New York would do well to walk away with any of those three players, adding a building block in the backcourt to pair with Porzingis for the long term.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Carmelo Anthony ($26,243,760)
Joakim Noah ($17,765,000)
Courtney Lee ($11,747,890)
Lance Thomas ($6,655,325)
Kristaps Porzingis ($4,503,600)
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,087,500)
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,025,035)
Willy Hernangomez ($1,435,750)
Total: $75,463,860

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Maurice Ndour ($1,312,611)¹
Marshall Plumlee ($1,312,611)²
Chasson Randle ($1,312,611)
Total: $3,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Ron Baker ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $1,512,611

Cap Holds

Derrick Rose ($30,300,000)³
No. 8 overall pick ($3,501,120)
Justin Holiday ($1,471,382)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,471,382)
Total: $36,743,884

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $19,588,175

Adding the Knicks’ eight guaranteed salaries to cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, the team’s salary totals $81,411,825. Even after waiving their three non-guaranteed players and renouncing free agents like Rose, Holiday, and Baker, that wouldn’t be nearly enough for a maximum salary contract, so the Knicks will have to get creative – or dump salary in a Carmelo trade – if they want to make a splash in free agency.

Footnotes:

Ndour’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Plumlee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after June 30.
Rose’s cap hold is his maximum salary, based on a $101MM cap projection. If the salary cap is higher than $101MM, Rose’s cap hold would increase along with it, up to a maximum of $31,984,878.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 6/12/17 – 6/18/17

June 18th, 2017 at 1:35pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

Will any of these stars get traded on draft night: Carmelo Anthony, Paul George or Jimmy Butler? — Deven Parikh, via Twitter

Probably not Carmelo. The Clippers are his most likely destination and they don’t have any draft picks to offer New York. Then there’s the matter of putting together a deal and convincing Anthony to waive his no-trade clause, all in four days. Look for any movement on that front after the draft. George continues to pledge his loyalty to the Pacers and the franchise says it intends to keep him, but management has to see the writing on the wall. He’s going to be one of the biggest names in free agency in 12 months, and Indiana may decide to unload him now if the right offer arises. A deal still seems more likely closer to next year’s deadline as the Pacers take more time to gauge the market and try to convince George to stay. Butler could be interesting, especially if Dwyane Wade opts out and makes his announcement by Thursday instead of the June 27th deadline. If Wade leaves, that could be the last straw in pushing the Bulls toward rebuilding.

Do you think the Kings would scoff at Timofey Mozgov and the 28th pick for Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple? — thedirewolf

If there is a franchise willing to take Mozgov’s albatross contract away from the Lakers, it could be Sacramento, which will have more cap room than anyone this summer. It depends on the Kings’ plans for Koufos with younger big men like Willie Cauley-Stein, Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere already on the roster. There are cheaper ways to unload Koufos than to pay Mozgov $48MM over the next three years, but the Kings might consider it to pick up an extra draft choice. If they deal away picks No. 5 and 10 to move up for De’Aaron Fox, they’ll be looking for another selection later in the round.

Is T.J. Leaf the next Kevin Love? Is Frank Jackson a first-round pick? — Michael Huff, via Twitter

There are a lot of big guys in college who can shoot, but few of them ever get to Love’s level. Don’t forget that Love was a top prospect in 2008 who was drafted fifth overall. Leaf is projected somewhere in the middle of the first round. He could eventually develop into a Love-type player, but he could also have a rookie season similar to Henry Ellenson‘s. Jackson is a fringe first-rounder who will probably go in the late 20s or early 30s, depending how the other picks play out. In the latest mock drafts, he is listed 25th by ESPN.com’s Chad Ford and 33rd by DraftExpress.

Am I the only one who is absolutely terrified of the prospect of the Spurs drafting Jordan Bell? — Alex Joel, via Twitter

An impressive athlete and a tenacious defender, Bell would replace some of what Jonathon Simmons provides if the Spurs lose him in free agency. But Bell’s limited shooting range doesn’t fit the profile of what San Antonio looks for in a power forward.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2017 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

High lottery picks don’t always guarantee success. The Orlando Magic can attest to that. The Magic had a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts, starting in 2013, and failed to come away with a franchise player.

Last season, Orlando tried a different approach, packaging the No. 11 overall pick in a trade with the Thunder to acquire Serge Ibaka, who was entering his walk year. When their season fell apart once again, the Magic ended up dealing Ibaka to the Raptors. Orlando finished 29-53 during Frank Vogel’s first season as head coach with the franchise, a six-game slide from the 2015/16 campaign. Now under new management, the Magic will try to snap their streak of five consecutive losing seasons.

Here are five key questions for the Magic as they enter this offseason:

1. Who should they take with the No. 6 pick in the draft?

It’s generally believed that there’s a drop-off after the first five players come off the board on Thursday. Just the Magic’s luck, they have the sixth pick.

If Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De’Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum are all gone by the time the Magic’s turn comes up — a pretty safe assumption — they’ll have to strike gold with a less-heralded prospect.

The team’s newly-hired decision-makers, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond, have some interesting options and will probably settle on the one with the highest ceiling. Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac could be that guy. His length and ability to guard multiple positions would boost the team’s defense and he has the range to step out and make 3-pointers.

Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen and Kentucky’s Malik Monk would be safer options. Markkanen is a classic stretch four — he made 42% of his 3-point attempts during his lone college season. Monk, a shooting guard, could emerge as the No. 1 scoring option on a team that needs one.

2. Should the Magic offer extensions to Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton?

Payton’s numbers have steadily improved through his first three seasons. He averaged 12.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 6.5 APG with an above-average 17.25 PER this past season. But it would be surprising if Payton received a serious extension offer. Payton hasn’t convinced anyone that he can be the floor leader for a contending team and he’s a poor three-point shooter, a very big hole in his game. It’s awfully tough to give big money to a point guard who can’t shoot from outside, unless he’s an elite passer.

Gordon is a tougher call. His scoring totals jumped after Ibaka was dealt to Toronto and he was able to slide to his natural power forward position. He averaged 15.8 PPG in March and 19.0 PPG in April. Like Payton though, he’s not adept at shooting three-pointers and he needs to become a better rebounder. It’s likely the new regime will take a wait-and-see approach on Gordon, assuming they don’t deal him.

3. What is the best way for the new regime to upgrade the roster?

Make trades. The Magic won’t be able to acquire a top-level free agent. Not only do they lack the cap room (a max of about $15.7MM to spend), but quality players aren’t going to sign on with a franchise that has become a perennial loser, no matter how nice the Orlando weather is in the winter. The giant contract handed to Bismack Biyombo last season will limit any free agent spending to depth-related causes.

Gordon is the player most likely to be dealt, mainly because he’s a starter still working on his rookie deal. Ideally, Orlando would package him with one of their more onerous contracts such as Biyombo’s or D.J. Augustin‘s. Nikola Vucevic could draw some interest around the league — he’s a solid scorer and rebounder with a reasonable contract (two years, $25MM remaining).

The Magic need more versatile defenders and shooters. They were a woeful perimeter-shooting team last season.

4. What should the Magic do with their other picks?

Orlando has a pair of first-round rounders, with the No. 25 pick (courtesy of the Raptors) to go along with their lottery selection. They also have two high second-rounders (Nos. 33 and 35).

It’s a good bet that Weltman will trade at least one of these picks. Don’t be surprised if the Magic move the late first-rounder and one of the second-rounders to move up in the first round. Orlando has needs all over the board and could probably find another rotation piece with an extra pick in the top 20.

The Magic could also go the draft-and-stash route with at least one of the picks.

5. Should the Magic try to re-sign unrestricted free agent Jodie Meeks?

It depends on what they do with their lottery pick. If they select Monk, then there would be no need for Meeks with Evan Fournier and Monk at the shooting guard spot.

If they draft a forward, or perhaps even a point guard, then bringing back Meeks would make some sense. Meeks can deliver shooting off the bench and his injury history will probably limit his options in the open market. Meeks is a career 37.6% shooter from long range and made 40.9% of his three-point tries last season.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000)
Evan Fournier ($17,000,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($12,250,000)
Terrence Ross ($10,500,000)
D.J. Augustin ($7,250,000)
Aaron Gordon ($5,504,420)
Mario Hezonja ($4,078,320)
Elfrid Payton ($3,332,340)
C.J. Watson ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $77,915,080

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

C.J. Watson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Patricio Garino ($1,312,611)
Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,312,611)
Stephen Zimmerman ($1,312,611)²
Total: $7,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Damjan Rudez ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Total: $1,724,305

Cap Holds

Jeff Green ($18,000,000)
Jodie Meeks ($12,426,000)
No. 6 overall pick ($4,186,320)
No. 25 overall pick ($1,516,200)
Total: $36,128,520

Trade Exceptions

Serge Ibaka TPE ($2,250,000) — Expires 2/14/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $15,751,170

Orlando’s eight guaranteed salaries, cap holds for two first-round picks, and cap charges for two empty roster spots total $85,248,830 in team salary. The Magic aren’t likely to waive all their non-guaranteed players, but they don’t have any free agents they badly needs to bring back, so renouncing those FAs and getting close to their maximum cap room is possible.

Footnotes:

Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
Zimmerman’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/10/17 – 6/17/17

June 17th, 2017 at 3:15pm CST by Joshua Fischman

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

Luke Adams provides an explanation as to how cash-trading rules may affect teams’ draft plans.
We offer five more installments in our Five Key Offseason Questions series with the Nuggets, Rockets, Nets, Spurs, and Heat.
Arthur Hill discusses whether the 76ers can nab any big-name shooting guards this offseason, if the Pistons are breaking up the band, and draft rumors in his weekly Sunday mailbag. Submit your questions via Twitter (@HoopsRumors) or by sending us an email (hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com).
In his weekly Hoops Links roundup of interesting articles from around the blogosphere, Austin Kent shares pieces on the Celtics‘ imminent need to make difficult choices, unlikely ambassador Dennis Rodman‘s unique capability to broker peace between the United States and North Korea, and how the Cavaliers should resist pulling the trigger on any blockbuster trades this offseason.
Check out our free Trade Rumors app available for IOS and Android.
Here are the questions we asked you in our Community Shootaround discussions and polls this week:
- Which team will win Game 5 of the NBA Finals?
- What should the 76ers do with their first-round pick in the draft?
- What are your thoughts on Adam Silver’s new policy on resting players?
- What are your thoughts on a potential 76ers big three of Markelle Fultz– Ben Simmons –Joel Embiid?

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 16th, 2017 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

After three straight seasons with win totals in the 30s, the Nuggets took a modest step forward in 2016/17, battling for a playoff spot in the Western Conference and ultimately falling just short of the postseason – and of .500 – at 40-42.

While the end result was somewhat disappointing, the Nuggets can view the season as an overall success, since it saw the emergence of a potential franchise player. Nikola Jokic, a second-round pick in 2014, entered Denver’s starting lineup for good on December 15, and from that point on, he averaged an eye-popping 19.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 5.8 APG to go along with a shooting line of .587/.342/.825. The Joker is still only 22 years old, and looks like a tremendous building block for a Nuggets team that has lacked star power since trading Carmelo Anthony.

Still, while Jokic’s breakout season was encouraging, the team has several key questions to answer as the offseason gets underway. Here are five:

1. Will Danilo Gallinari be back?

Gallinari, a key piece in that aforementioned Carmelo trade, has been a Nugget since 2011, but will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this July after turning down his player option with the team. Gallinari has been one of the league’s more underrated scorers in recent years, and is coming off the best shooting season of his career (.447/.389/.902). The Nuggets also have more than enough cap flexibility to bring him back.

On the other hand, Gallinari has a lengthy history of injuries, having failed to play more than 63 games in a season since 2012/13. Furthermore, Denver has a crowded rotation at the forward position, with Kenneth Faried, Juan Hernangomez, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur among the players who would be vying with Gallinari for minutes at the three and four. If the Nuggets trade one or two of those forwards, re-signing Gallinari makes a little more sense, but it’s not hard to imagine him ending up elsewhere this summer.

2. How can the Nuggets acquire another star to pair with Jokic?

If Gallinari doesn’t return, the Nuggets could create more than $35MM in cap room, which would be enough to make a maximum salary contract offer to a free agent. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised then that Denver has been mentioned as one of the teams that Chris Paul intends to talk to if he explores leaving the Clippers this offseason.

Still, while newly-promoted president of basketball operations Tim Connelly says agents have told him their clients want to play with Jokic, Denver hasn’t historically been a top destination for elite free agents. The Nuggets made an unsuccessful push for Dwyane Wade last summer, and Connelly has talked about being wary of free agents using Denver for leverage. Jokic’s presence and a solid core makes the Nuggets a more appealing landing spot, but it’s still hard to believe that a player of Paul’s caliber would choose Denver over teams closer to contending or over more glamorous cities.

While it doesn’t hurt to go after a marquee free agent, the Nuggets may have more luck pursuing a top player via trade. The team holds all its future first-round picks and has a handful of young players of various appeal on cheap contracts, including Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Malik Beasley. Denver could put together a tantalizing trade package, but once again, the team would have to be careful about targeting a player who could depart in free agency in the near future. There’s probably no sense giving up several assets for Paul George if you’re concerned he’ll head to the Lakers in 2018.

3. How will the Nuggets address the point guard spot?

On paper, the Nuggets’ point guard duo of Mudiay and Jameer Nelson seems somewhat promising — the former seventh overall pick heading into his third year paired with the reliable veteran backup. However, Mudiay’s development in his first two NBA seasons has been slow, and Nelson will turn 36 years old during the 2017/18 season. For a team with an All-Star caliber center and solid performers on the wing, there’s a real risk that the point guard spot will be the lineup’s weak link.

The handling of Mudiay is perhaps the trickiest decision for the Nuggets going forward. He’s still only 21 years old, and the club certainly shouldn’t give up on him yet. But Denver is getting to the point in its rebuild where annual postseason contention is expected, and it’s not clear that Mudiay is capable of leading a playoff team.

This year’s class of free agent point guards is a strong one, and while the Nuggets probably won’t land Paul, it will be interesting to see whether the team shows serious interest in any other top FAs at the position. A veteran point guard like George Hill, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, or even Kyle Lowry would look good in Denver’s lineup, though adding a player of that caliber would create uncertainty about Mudiay’s future with the franchise. Will he continue to get significant minutes, or will he become a potential trade chip this offseason?

4. What will the Nuggets do with their lottery pick?

Although they won’t pick as high as they have in the last couple years, the Nuggets should be able to land a talented prospect with the No. 13 pick. Chad Ford’s tiers at ESPN.com (Insider link) suggest that a few players out of a third tier that includes OG Anunoby, Zach Collins, Harry Giles, Luke Kennard, and Donovan Mitchell should be available for Denver.

I’d expect Kennard and perhaps Mitchell to be off the board by No. 13, but players like Anunoby and Giles would present the Nuggets with an interesting choice. Denver already has a fairly deep roster and doesn’t need to draft someone who can step into the rotation immediately. As such, it might make sense for the Nuggets to roll the dice on a player like Anunoby or Giles.

Both players are risks because of their injury histories, but would likely be top-10 selections based on talent alone. Denver is in a spot where it can afford to take a chance on a prospect with major upside — and potential downside.

5. What will Mason Plumlee‘s new deal look like?

The Nuggets would have had a second first-round pick in this year’s draft if not for a February deal with Portland. That trade looks like a heist for the Trail Blazers, who not only landed Jusuf Nurkic, but also picked up a first-round pick, which will be the No. 20 overall selection.

Nurkic likely wouldn’t have blossomed in Denver like he did in Portland, so the Nuggets shouldn’t feel too disheartened, but in order to salvage some value from the move, the team will need to get good production out of Plumlee in the coming years. The only problem? Plumlee is already eligible to hit the market as a restricted free agent this offseason.

Connelly has said that the team views Plumlee as a key part of its core, so it doesn’t sound like the Nuggets will let him get away. But if a team makes an aggressive offer like the Nets did to multiple RFAs last year, keeping him could get pricey. Plumlee is a solid player, but as a backup center, his role won’t necessarily be substantial unless Jokic gets hurt. The Nuggets will have to be determine how high they’re willing to go if Plumlee gets a big offer sheet.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kenneth Faried ($12,921,348)
Wilson Chandler ($12,016,854)
Darrell Arthur ($7,464,912)
Jameer Nelson ($4,736,050)
Will Barton ($3,533,333)
Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,381,480)
Jamal Murray ($3,355,320)
Gary Harris ($2,550,055)
Juan Hernangomez ($2,076,840)
Malik Beasley ($1,700,640)
Nikola Jokic ($1,471,382)
Total: $55,208,214

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Mike Miller ($3,500,000)¹
Total: $3,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Mason Plumlee ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,821,325 cap hold)
Total: $5,821,325

Cap Holds

Danilo Gallinari ($22,575,000) — Player option declined.
Roy Hibbert ($6,000,000)
No. 13 overall pick ($2,621,280)
Total: $31,196,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $43,170,506

With 11 guaranteed salaries on their books and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Nuggets have a modest team salary of $57,829,494. If the club intends to make a serious effort to re-sign Gallinari, that figure will grow, reducing cap flexibility. But if Gallinari departs and Denver makes a trade or two, the team could create even more cap room.

Footnotes:

Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Cash-Trading Rules May Impact Teams’ Draft Plans

June 16th, 2017 at 10:35am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, five draft-night trades involving second-round picks saw money change hands between two NBA teams. In some cases, the cost of those picks wasn’t exorbitant — the Nuggets reportedly only received $730K from the Thunder in exchange for the rights to the No. 56 pick, which was used on Daniel Hamilton. However, the price tag on a few other picks was higher.

The Warriors, for instance, sent $2.4MM to the Bucks in exchange for the right to draft Patrick McCaw. The Nets gave $3MM to the Jazz for the right to move up and nab Isaiah Whitehead. The No. 54 pick, which was used on Kay Felder, cost the Cavaliers $2.47MM to acquire from Atlanta.

Teams with an excess of second-round picks will likely look to sell a selection or two this year, while clubs looking to get back into the second round can dangle cash in lieu of players or picks. But teams can’t simply send as much money as they want in order to acquire draft picks.

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement limits the amount of money teams can send and receive in trades during a given league year. For the 2016/17 season, the maximum is $3.5MM. A team can send out as much as $3.5MM in trades, and receive up to that amount as well, but after that point, they can’t use any more cash in trades.

Cash paid and cash received are separate entities, so a team that has sent out $3.5MM in trades can’t “start over” by receiving $3.5MM in another trade — once they’ve paid $3.5MM, they’re essentially capped out in terms of tradeable cash. Since the new league year doesn’t begin until July 1, trades made since July 2016 will affect how much money teams can pay or receive in this year’s draft.

There are potentially ways to get around these restrictions — if a team without any tradeable cash left badly wants to buy a second-round pick, it’s possible an agreement in principle with another club could be reached, and a trade could be finalized in July when spending resets. But both teams would have to be on board, and a team with the ability to send or receive cash this year may not want to hamper its 2017/18 flexibility by waiting. When teams sell draft picks for cash, those deals are generally made official on draft night.

According to data from Basketball Insiders, these are the teams that have already paid or received more than half of their $3.5MM limit in 2016/17, reducing their flexibility on draft night:

Cash Paid:

Cleveland Cavaliers: $0 remaining ($3,500,000 paid)
Dallas Mavericks: $272,714 remaining ($3,227,286 paid)
Portland Trail Blazers: $575,000 remaining ($2,925,000 paid)

Cash Received:

Denver Nuggets: $0 remaining ($3,500,000 received)
Philadelphia 76ers: $100,000 remaining ($3,400,000 received)
Indiana Pacers: $272,714 remaining ($3,227,286 received)

The two teams impacted most by the money they’ve already spent or received in trades are probably the Cavaliers and Sixers. Cleveland has traded both of its 2017 picks, and will have a hard time getting back into the draft without any cash to use.

As for the Sixers, they have more picks than any other team in this draft, including four second-rounders. Philadelphia probably doesn’t want to use all of those picks, but trading them could be tricky, since the team isn’t eligible to receive more than $100K. If Philadelphia does trade a second-rounder or two, the return could be future picks rather than cash.

Hoops Links Vol. 9: Time Travel, North Korean Diplomacy, More

June 15th, 2017 at 3:25pm CST by Austin Kent

We’re back with the latest edition of Hoops Links, one that will make you appreciate the joys of the NBA blogosphere as much as we do. Now, with the Finals in the rear-view mirror, celebrating good original content is as important as ever.

Once a week we round up the best content that we come across while obsessively perusing the internet and now you can help. Find a blog article that you think deserves a shout out next Thursday? Send it my way on Twitter (@AustinKent). Even if you wrote the blog yourself, nominate it for inclusion in future editions.

Remember, keep things limited to Cavaliers Era Shawn Kemp, relevant, original and fresh.

The Celtics have plenty of decisions to make over the course of the next few years, especially since their cap space projects to dry up after this offseason. Retaining their roster as is and signing a big name free agent in 2017 could put Boston in position to far exceed the luxury tax next season when it comes time to re-sign Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Jason Sullivan of You’re Ducking Right recently broke down the pros and cons of retaining each guard, coming to the conclusion that the C’s will inevitably need to part with one if they want to build around Markelle Fultz.

Author: Jason Sullivan – @Sully6827
Rating: 9 out of 10 Sophie’s Choices
Link: Isaiah Thomas vs. Avery Bradley.

Much has been said about how an increasing reliance on three-point shooting has changed the game of basketball, but few have delved into what it takes to stop a successful team on the perimeter. Thomas Bassine of Big Three Sports went to work compiling the three-point percentages certain teams allowed compared to what one might reasonably expect those opposing percentages to be. The result? A statistical analysis of how teams are defending against the biggest trend in basketball.

Author: Thomas Bassine – @Big3Sports
Rating: 9 out of 10 Scatter Plots
Link: Three-point defense trends.

There’s a decent chance that Dennis Rodman‘s latest trip to North Korea will have a negligible impact on anything but perhaps the quarterly sales of bootlegged Bulls jerseys on the streets of Pyongyang, but that doesn’t change the fact that the retired forward is likely the only person alive that has personal relationships with both Donald Trump and Kim-Jong Un. Dan Devine of Ball Don’t Lie summarizes the Washington Post’s reporting.

Author: Dan Devine – @YourManDevine
Rating: 7 out of 10 Mermaid Puzzles
Link: Dennis Rodman in North Korea, 2017.

It didn’t take long for the speculation about hypothetical Cavaliers trades to kick in following their loss in the NBA Finals. Sam Beech of the King James Gospel, however, insists that Cleveland should resist making a blockbuster trade. Forget Carmelo Anthony altogether and don’t rush out to trade Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving, Beech says, thwarting some of the most frequently discussed trade possibilities.

Author: Sam Beech – @KJG_NBA
Rating: 7 out of 10 Hasty Overreactions
Link: Cavs should not make blockbuster trade.

If you were simultaneously granted the abilities to go invisible and time travel, it’s presumed that you’d skip ahead to the day the free agency moratorium lifts in order to sneak through the journals of various general managers. I get it. Alas, for now at least, we’re stuck with David Nash’s thought exercise. For The Four Point Play, Nash imagines what the diaries of Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Thunder GM Sam Presti might look like after two vital 10-day stretches in each executive’s career.

Author: David Nash – @DKN17
Rating: 9 out of 10 Cringeworthy Drakes
Link: Sam Presti, Daryl Morey diaries.

After last summer’s historically mediocre shopping spree, the Trail Blazers don’t have much cap space in 2017. Eric Griffiths of Blazer’s Edge, however, has some options that could create some breathing room for the franchise. Griffiths floats Pat Connaughton and Tim Quarterman as possible cuts with Meyers Leonard an intriguing salary dump option.

Author: Eric Griffiths – @EricG_NBA
Rating: 8 out of 10 Scroungers
Link: How Blazers can make cap space.

The Wizards haven’t had much success luring NBA superstars home to the D.C. area, most recently missing out on Kevin Durant last summer. Durant, a Washington native, didn’t even grant the franchise a meeting last offseason before taking his talents to Robert W. Crown Memorial State Beach. Ryan Eugene of Wiz of Awes, however, thinks the tide could be changing, citing recent comments from Will Barton and Greivis Vasquez about returning home.

Author: Ryan Eugene – @ButterScotchT
Rating: 8 out of 10 Google Searches For Beaches Near Oracle Arena
Link: Local players interested in playing for Wizards.

After spurring a chorus of speculation at the trade deadline by tweeting an emoji, Pistons big man Andre Drummond has done it all over again. Count Steve Hinson of Detroit Bad Boys among those frustrated that we may be in line for another barrage of social-media-fueled angst as the rumor mill surrounding possible transactions begins to fly.

Author: Steve Hinson – @Shinons8
Rating: 7 out of 10 Damn Millennials
Link: Andre Drummond’s emoji tweet.

While they’ve managed to turn themselves into a perennial playoff team and regular dark horse option to make noise in the west, make no mistake, the Clippers Curse is alive and well. Need a reminder of just how blech things have been for the franchise? Autumn Anderson of Clipperholics recently published a feature detailing just how much of an impact the Michael Olowokandi-era bad luck continues to have on the organization.

Author: Autumn Anderson – @AAAutumn_
Rating: 8 out of 10 Eric Piatkowski Jerseys
Link: The Clippers Curse is real.

The thought of Dwight Howard putting up jump shots from beyond the arc is naturally unsettling, but that’s exactly what the big man plans to do for the Hawks in order to prolong his career. Justin Hodges of Soaring Down South weighed in on some recent comments made by the traditional back-to-the-basket big man, suggesting that Howard no longer boasts the impressive interior defense to get away with being a one-trick pony.

Author: Justin Hodges – @HodgepodgeHoops
Rating: 8 out of 10 Ambitious Shooting Coaches
Link: Dwight Howard to add three-pointer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Houston Rockets

June 15th, 2017 at 12:08pm CST by Arthur Hill

A year ago, the Rockets were a directionless team that barely snuck into the playoffs. They had no coach after dispatching both Kevin McHale and J.B. Bickerstaff, and there was disharmony in the locker room stemming from a cold war between James Harden and Dwight Howard.

The problems cleared up over the span of a few weeks last summer, and Houston emerged from the wreckage with a team that posted the league’s third-best record. Mike D’Antoni was hired as head coach in early June and brought a fast-paced, spread-the-floor philosophy that the Rockets embraced. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon signed as free agents, adding two weapons that were perfect for D’Antoni’s system. Howard left for Atlanta, ending the behind-the-scenes dissension.

But even with those problems solved, there are questions that remain. Here are five:

1. Does this really work?

D’Antoni has a history of excellent regular-season teams that had short playoff runs. In four straight seasons in Phoenix, he coached clubs with 62, 54, 61 and 55 wins, but never advanced past the conference finals. So even as the Rockets strung together a 55-27 campaign with a record number of 3-point attempts and makes, there were plenty of skeptics waiting for the playoff failure.

It came against San Antonio, a familiar nemesis for D’Antoni teams. The Rockets’ three-point marksmen misfired badly in the elimination game as the Spurs embarrassed them by 39 points in Houston, despite playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. A second-round ouster raises the age-old question of whether a team that so heavily emphasizes offense over defense can ever be a serious threat to the NBA title.

2. How do the Rockets get better?

The Rockets shipped this year’s first-round draft pick to the Lakers in a deadline deal for Lou Williams, and their second-rounder belongs to the Knicks from a 2015 trade. They own Denver’s second-round pick at No. 43 and Portland’s at No. 45, but it’s hard to find someone who can contribute right away at that point in the draft.

Free agency options will also be limited, as the Rockets lack real cap space. The good news is nine of their top 10 players are under contract next season, with Harden secured for the next two years and Anderson and Gordon for the next three. However, any significant personnel moves this summer will probably have to come through trades. GM Daryl Morey pledged this week to “keep improving our roster,” saying he doesn’t view the champion Warriors as unbeatable.

3. Will Nene be back?

The one member of the rotation headed for free agency is veteran center Nene. The Rockets signed him with their room exception last summer, getting valuable interior help for the bargain price of $2.898MM. Nene became a dependable backup, averaging 9.1 PPG in 17.9 MPG over 67 games and posting his best production per 36 minutes since 2011/12.

Nene will turn 35 before next season opens, and it’s hard to picture a better situation at this stage of his career. Look for him to re-sign in Houston, probably with a modest raise.

4. How many extensions will get handed out?

The Rockets knew they had decisions to make this summer on Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza, but changes in the new collective bargaining agreement mean Williams, Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell with be eligible for extensions as well.

Beverley can receive $31MM over three years in a new contract that would start with 2019/20. That represents a nice increase for a player who will be paid $10.5MM total over the next two seasons, but he will turn 31 before that contract kicks in, so the Rockets have to consider whether it’s a wise investment. Williams, who is two years older, can get $39MM over four years, starting with 2018/19. Capela, entering his fourth season, can be extended for four years at up to 25% of the salary cap for ’18/19.

5. Should they go over the cap or under?

Being so close to the cap line gives the Rockets a lot of flexibility heading into the summer. They could create up some extra room by renouncing all their cap holds and non-guaranteed deals, but that would mean giving up Nene and would still give them only about $12MM to work with, along with a room mid-level exception worth $4.2MM.

If Houston decides to operate over the cap, it would have two exceptions available in the amounts of $8.4MM and $3.1MM. That’s enough for a couple of small roster tweaks, but likely wouldn’t be enough for a real difference maker.

The Rockets are fully committed to their style of play, from management to the coaching staff to their superstar to their roster decisions over the past year. There’s no turning back now, so look for any personnel moves this summer to set up another record-setting year of bombing away from behind the three-point line.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

James Harden ($28,299,399)
Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455)
Eric Gordon ($12,943,020)
Trevor Ariza ($7,420,912)
Lou Williams ($7,000,000)
Patrick Beverley ($5,513,514)
Clint Capela ($2,334,528)
Sam Dekker ($1,794,600)
Montrezl Harrell ($1,471,382)
Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611)
Total: $87,668,421

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Wiltjer ($1,312,611)¹
Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611)
Total: $2,625,222

Restricted Free Agents

Bobby Brown ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Troy Williams ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $3,236,916

Cap Holds

Nene ($3,477,600)
Total: $3,477,600

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $11,700,349

With more than $87MM on their 2017/18 cap in the form of guaranteed salaries, the Rockets would have a team salary of $89,299,651 if they added a couple cap charges for empty roster spots to that total. That would give the club about $11.7MM in cap room, which isn’t much more than what the mid-level exception is expected to be worth. In order to clear out additional space, a trade would be necessary.

Footnotes:

Wiltjer’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Brooklyn Nets

June 13th, 2017 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second straight season, the Nets struggled to crack the 20-win mark, and for the second straight year, the race for the top spot in the lottery was no silver lining for fans, since the Celtics will end up with Brooklyn’s pick.

The 2013 blockbuster that saw the Nets trade multiple first-round picks (and swap rights) to Boston for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett continues to loom large over the franchise. Although there were some positive signs from some of the Nets’ young players in 2016/17, Brooklyn finished with an NBA-worst 20-62 record and owes the Celtics one more first-round pick in 2018, hampering the organization’s ability to accelerate its rebuild.

Here are five key questions facing the Nets this offseason:

1. Is Brook Lopez staying put?

Few NBA players have been involved in as much trade speculation in recent years as Lopez, but the Nets continue to show little interest in moving their veteran big man, despite not being close to contention. Brooklyn was reportedly seeking multiple first-rounders in exchange for Lopez earlier this year, reluctantly lowering the asking price to a first-round pick and a second-rounder just before the deadline, as bigs like DeMarcus Cousins and Nerlens Noel were dealt for modest packages.

Lopez is heading into the final year of his contract with the Nets, which means the team could risk losing him as an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Lopez seems happy in Brooklyn, and the franchise likes having him around as a reliable veteran presence. But the Nets aren’t going to contend in 2017/18, which means that if Lopez is going to be a part of Brooklyn’s next playoff roster, he’ll have to re-sign.

Lopez has stayed healthy in recent years and even added a three-point shot to his arsenal last season. He’d have value in a trade, so the Nets will have to decide in the coming months – or perhaps even the coming weeks – what his future holds. Is he considered a long-term piece? If so, is the club confident he won’t leave as a free agent in 2018? If not, Brooklyn may have to seriously listen to trade inquiries.

2. Will the Nets return to the restricted free agent market?

A year ago, the Nets aggressively pursued multiple restricted free agents, inking Tyler Johnson, Allen Crabbe, and Donatas Motiejunas to offer sheets. All of those offers were matched, leaving Brooklyn empty-handed, so it will be interesting to see if the team dips back into that well in 2017.

Restricted free agents are generally younger and less expensive than the top players on the unrestricted free agent market, which appeals to a Nets team building for the future. But the fact that teams have the ability to match any offer sheet their restricted free agents sign makes it difficult to pry them away. The Nets would likely have to overpay to avoid having their offers matched, and even then, there are no guarantees — Crabbe’s deal looked untenable for the Blazers, but they still matched.

This time around, the Nets could splash around for RFAs like Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Nerlens Noel, but those players likely aren’t going anywhere even if Brooklyn offers the max. Second-tier RFAs like Jonathon Simmons, Mason Plumlee, Nikola Mirotic, and Tony Snell may make better targets for the Nets, if they decide to go that route.

3. What should the Nets do with their two first-round picks?

Although the Nets were forced to give up the No. 1 overall pick to Boston, the team still holds a pair of first-rounders. Brooklyn has the Celtics’ first-rounder (No. 27) as a result of that pick swap, and also acquired the Wizards’ pick (No. 22) in a deadline deal for Bojan Bogdanovic.

A year ago, the Nets showed that they were willing to roll the dice on a player who wouldn’t necessarily be ready to contribute right away, when they used their lone first-round selection on injured guard Caris LeVert. That’s looking like a savvy pick 12 months later, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nets go a similar route this time around.

Prospects with health questions, such as Harry Giles and OG Anunoby, could be on the Nets’ radar, and draft-and-stash prospects like Andzejs Pasecniks and Isaiah Hartenstein may also make sense. Rodions Kurucs and Jonathan Jeanne may also have been possibilities for Brooklyn, but Kurucs has withdrawn from the draft, and Jeanne was diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, putting his basketball career in jeopardy.

4. Are there other opportunities to add draft picks?

If the Nets don’t dive into the free agent market as actively as they did a year ago, they’ll have plenty of cap room available. In order to reach the salary floor, it might make sense for the team to accommodate another club’s salary dump, if it means gaining an asset of value.

For instance, the Trail Blazers are believed to be shopping one of their three first-round picks in an effort to reduce team salary, and the Nets have reportedly inquired. The opportunity to add a first-round pick as a reward for taking on a contract like Crabbe’s or Evan Turner‘s or Meyers Leonard‘s should be appealing to the Nets. Particularly since each of those players has some upside, even if they are overpriced.

Crabbe, a Nets target last summer, would be the most obvious fit for Brooklyn, though he’ll be even more expensive than he was in 2016, due to a 15% trade kicker. It’s also worth noting that the Nets currently don’t have a 2018 first-round pick, so if they want to get back into that draft, they could seek out a trade partner besides Portland.

5. Which of the Nets’ non-guaranteed players are keepers?

The Nets only have one free agent – Randy Foye – but six of their players have non-guaranteed contracts or team options for the 2017/18 season. In some cases, those decisions should be fairly easy — Sean Kilpatrick will be brought back on his minimum salary deal, for example. Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris should return too.

In some instances though, those decisions may not be so simple. Did the Nets see enough from K.J. McDaniels down the stretch to warrant picking up his $3.48MM team option? How about former first-round pick Archie Goodwin, who is on a minimum salary contract? For every player the Nets bring back, there will be one fewer roster spot to use on a new draft pick or free agent signing.

Brooklyn has plenty of time to make many of those decisions, but will have to make early calls on Kilpatrick, Harris, and Quincy Acy, whose 2017/18 salaries will all be guaranteed by mid-July.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Brook Lopez ($22,642,350)
Jeremy Lin ($12,000,000)
Trevor Booker ($9,125,000)
Andrew Nicholson ($6,362,998)
Deron Williams ($5,474,787) — Waived via stretch provision.
Justin Hamilton ($3,000,000)
Caris LeVert ($1,632,480)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,471,382)
Isaiah Whitehead ($1,312,611)
Total: $63,021,608

Player Options

None

Team Options

K.J. McDaniels ($3,476,873)
Total: $3,476,873

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Quincy Acy ($1,709,538)¹
Archie Goodwin ($1,577,230)
Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,524,305)
Joe Harris ($1,524,305)²
Sean Kilpatrick ($1,524,305)³
Total: $7,859,683

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Randy Foye ($3,000,000)
No. 22 overall pick ($1,713,720)
No. 27 overall pick ($1,423,560)
Total: $6,137,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $33,209,882

With eight guaranteed salaries, two cap holds for first-round picks, and a pair of cap charges for empty roster spots, the Nets would have a team salary of $67,790,118. Their available cap room will dip a little if they keep some of their players with non-guaranteed salaries, as is expected, but they’d still have more than enough room to aggressively pursue at least one major free agent — perhaps an RFA, if they follow 2016’s blueprint.

Footnotes:

Acy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 16.
Harris’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Kilpatrick’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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