Hoops Rumors Originals

Expiring contracts don’t have the value they used to, with plenty of teams poised to have maximum-level cap flexibility next summer, but they can still help teams clear cap space when a need arises. A glance at our list of 2016 free agents gives you an idea of the players entering the final seasons of their contracts this year, but the players marked with an (N) on that page fall into a special category.

Those players have non-guaranteed money for next season, empowering their teams with a choice. A team could trade for one of these “de facto” non-guaranteed contracts and use this season to gauge whether the player is worth keeping, and if not, the team could just waive the player and benefit from the extra cap room next summer. So, in that context, “de facto” non-guaranteed deals are somewhat more valuable than simple non-guaranteed deals. That’s especially so with contracts that don’t have any special guarantee dates written into them. In those cases, the team can wait to see how the July free agency rush plays out until deciding whether to keep or unload the player.

Unless a contract otherwise stipulates it, a player with a non-guaranteed salary can’t be assured of any money until the season begins. However, plenty of deals do insert earlier dates that trigger guarantees, and so sometimes, teams in possession of non-guaranteed deals don’t have the luxury of waiting to see what happens in July. That’s true of most of the largest “de facto” expiring contracts this season. Ty Lawson, Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko all have non-guaranteed salaries of $5MM or more for 2016/17, but they become fully guaranteed if their teams keep them through dates that precede July 12th, the first day teams can officially do business after the July Moratorium next year. Lance Stephenson essentially falls into this category, since his contract isn’t non-guaranteed but includes a team option. The decision on that option is due June 29th.

Here’s a look at every “de facto” expiring contract with a salary worth more than $2MM for 2016/17, with any guarantee dates listed in parentheses. The figures listed are roundest to the nearest $1K, and the players are listed in descending order of salary.

• Ty Lawson, Rockets ($13.213MM non-guaranteed until day after last game of Finals or day after draft, whichever is later)
• Amir Johnson, Celtics ($12MM non-guaranteed until July 3rd)
• Lance Stephenson, Clippers ($9.405MM team option)
• Jonas Jerebko, Celtics ($5MM non-guaranteed until July 3rd)
• Kris Humphries, Wizards ($4.63MM non-guaranteed until June 30th)
• Drew Gooden, Wizards ($3.547MM)
• Anthony Tolliver, Thunder ($3.488MM)
• Mike Scott, Hawks ($3.333MM)
• Sonny Weems, Suns ($2.941MM non-guaranteed until July 11th)
• Joel Anthony, Pistons ($2.5MM)
• Shelvin Mack, Hawks ($2.433MM)
• Furkan Aldemir, Sixers ($2.18MM)
• Kendall Marshall, Sixers ($2.048MM)
• DeJuan Blair, Wizards ($2MM non-guaranteed until June 30th)

The players below have salaries of $2MM or more that are partially guaranteed for next season, so they fit a looser definition of “de facto” expiring contracts. The details for each are in parentheses, and again the figures are rounded to the nearest $1K. This time, the players are in alphabetical order.

• Vince Carter, Grizzlies (only $2MM of $4.264MM guaranteed)
• Boris Diaw, Spurs (only $3MM of $7MM guaranteed until June 30th)
• Ersan Ilyasova, Pistons (only $400K of $8.4MM guaranteed until July 1st)
• Jarrett Jack, Nets (only $500K of $6.3MM guaranteed until June 30th)
• Shaun Livingston, Warriors (only $3MM of $5.782MM guaranteed)
• J.R. Smith, Cavaliers (only $2.2MM of $5.375MM guaranteed)
• Jason Thompson, Warriors (only $2.65MM of $7.01MM guaranteed)
• P.J. Tucker, Suns (only $1.5MM of $5.3MM guaranteed)
• Martell Webster, Wizards (only $2.5MM of $5.845MM guaranteed until July 1st)

Notes:

— Anderson Varejao is set to make $10.361MM in 2016/17 with a partial guarantee of just $1MM less than the full total. Thus, he doesn’t offer much benefit as a “de facto” expiring contract, and so he’s not listed above.
— Webster’s full 2016/17 salary becomes guaranteed if he appears in 70 games this year.
— This list doesn’t include players with pending rookie scale team options for 2016/17, since the decisions on those are due November 2nd.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors will be taking a team-by-team look at the battles for regular season roster spots going on around the NBA this month, the last before rosters shrink from the offseason limit of 20 to the 15-man regular season maximum. We’ve already checked out the Northwest and Pacific division franchises, and now we’ll complete the Western Conference with a look at the Southwest Division:

MAVERICKS

15 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Salah Mejri — $525,093)

Non-guaranteed players

• Brandon Ashley — $50K partial guarantee
• Jarrid Famous — $10K partial guarantee
• JaVale McGee — $500K partial guarantee
• Dwight Powell 
• Jamil Wilson — $50K partial guarantee

Analysis: McGee is apparently unlikely to be healthy enough to play in time for opening night, but that hasn’t seemed to doom his chances at a regular season roster spot. Instead, it appears the team is banking on his upside, and with $500K partially guaranteed, that puts McGee on roughly equal financial footing with Mejri and Maurice Ndour, who has only one more dollar on his salary than Mejri does. John Jenkins, Charlie Villanueva and Samuel Dalembert each have full guarantees of less than $1MM, so they’d be vulnerable if one of the other camp invitees makes a push. Jenkins and Villanueva are so far leading the Mavs in preseason minutes per game.

GRIZZLIES

14 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Russ Smith, Jarnell Stokes, tie — $845,059)

Non-guaranteed players

• Sampson Carter
• Yahkouba Diawara
• JaMychal Green — $150K partial guarantee
• Ryan Hollins
• Lazeric Jones
• Alex Stepheson

Analysis: Green’s partial guarantee and status as the lone holdover from last season among the camp invitees ostensibly makes him the favorite here. Still, Hollins knows his way around the NBA, and he surely didn’t join the team with just the D-League in mind. Hollins, along with Diawara, a fellow veteran, have been seeing in excess of 10 minutes a night in the preseason so far. Green and Jones have, too, so Memphis is at least giving most of its camp invitees a shot. Carter and Stepheson are new additions since the start of camp, having replaced Dan Nwaelele and Michael Holyfield.

ROCKETS

14 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Marcus Thornton, Jason Terry, tie — $947,276)

Non-guaranteed players

• Will Cummings
• Arsalan Kazemi
• Denzel Livingston
• Joshua Smith
• Jeremy Tyler
• Chris Walker

Analysis: The Rockets added a player to the mix Monday when they claimed Arsalan Kazemi off waivers, but he probably doesn’t change the equation much here. That the Rockets will carry a 15th player at all is in doubt because the team is less than $2MM shy of its hard cap of $88.74MM, which it triggered when it signed Montrezl Harrell last month. That said, Smith is averaging 7.0 points and 8.0 rebounds in 21.4 minutes per game across two preseason appearances so far, so he’s making a strong impression, particularly on the boards.

SPURS

13 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Jonathan Simmons — $525,093)

Non-guaranteed players

• Matt Bonner — $749,594
• Rasual Butler
• Jimmer Fredette — $507,711
• Youssou Ndoye
• Keifer Sykes
• Deshaun Thomas
• Reggie Williams

Analysis: The sizable partial guarantees for Bonner and Fredette ostensibly make it their competition to lose, but if the Spurs were 100% sold on them, they would have given them full guarantees, so much depends on what happens this month. Bonner and Fredette are a combined 0 for 6 from the floor in their limited preseason action so far, and for players who depend so heavily on their outside shooting, that doesn’t bode well for them. Butler, meanwhile, shot 5 for 7 and made both of his three-point attempts in his only preseason game to date this fall.

PELICANS

13 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Kendrick Perkins — $947,276)

Non-guaranteed players

• Jeff Adrien
• Chris Douglas-Roberts
  
• Jerome Jordan
• Sean Kilpatrick
• Corey Webster
• Bryce Dejean-Jones — $50K partial guarantee

Analysis: Injuries to Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca and Norris Cole have thrown the preseason into flux for New Orleans. It’s unclear how long Cole will be out, and Asik could be back before the start of the regular season, so how just how quickly they return will be key. Adrien and Jordan are the only big men among the camp invitees for the Pelicans, and Jordan the only true center, so each has at least a decent chance to stick, given that Asik and Ajinca are the team’s top two centers. The rest of the camp invitees are wing players, though they could come in handy if Cole has to miss significant time and the Pelicans decide to play Tyreke Evans more at point guard.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors will be taking a team-by-team look at the battles for regular season roster spots going on around the NBA this month, the last before rosters shrink from the offseason limit of 20 to the 15-man regular season maximum. Last week, we checked out the five Northwest Division franchises, and now we’ll do the same for the Pacific:

LAKERS

12 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Jordan Clarkson — $845,059; Anthony Brown makes smaller salary this year but has 2016/17 fully guaranteed, too.)

Non-guaranteed players

• Metta World Peace
• Jabari Brown
• Tarik Black
• Robert Upshaw — $35K partial guarantee
• Marcelo Huertas
• Jonathan Holmes — $100K partial guarantee
• Michael Frazier — $50K partial guarantee

Analysis: An intriguing battle is going on for the purple-and-gold, who boast a mix of veterans and intriguing undrafted players among their camp invitees. Black, who made 39 starts last year, including 27 after joining the Lakers, seems like as safe a bet as any to stick. Huertas, a 32-year-old Brazilian point guard who comes by way of Spain, has impressed his teammates, but a strained right hamstring has kept him from seeing any preseason action. World Peace admits he’s not in shape but the team likes his mentorship of Julius Randle. Holmes would appear to have an economic advantage, given his partial guarantee is twice as large as anyone else’s. Upshaw offers high potential, but he carries baggage, too. The guess here is that Black, Holmes and either Upshaw or World Peace make it to opening night, but much remains up in the air.

CLIPPERS

14 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Branden Dawson — $525,093)

Non-guaranteed players

• Chuck Hayes
• Luc Mbah a Moute

Analysis: The Clippers would appear to have the one of the simplest camp battles in the entire league, with one open regular season spot and two players gunning for it. Hayes and Mbah a Moute have divergent games, with girth and muscle the hallmarks of Hayes’ career so far while Mbah a Moute’s attack is built more on athleticism. It could come down to the qualities the Clippers feel they need as opposed to the level of performance from either. They’ve seen roughly equivalent preseason playing time so far. It would cost the Clippers less than $1MM in cap hits to cut one of Dawson, Pablo Prigioni or Josh Smith if they wanted to keep both Hayes and Mbah a Moute, but that seems unlikely, especially since the Clippers are a tax team.

KINGS

14 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Duje Dukan — $525,093)

Non-guaranteed players

• Eric Moreland — $200K partial guarantee
• David Stockton
• Marshall Henderson — $35K partial guarantee
• Vince Hunter — $35K partial guarantee

Analysis: The Kings are notoriously hard to predict, but the organization seems to like Moreland, having signed him as an undrafted free agent last year and again this year a few weeks after waiving him to avoid guaranteeing his full salary. Vlade Divac has replaced Pete D’Alessandro as the top decision-maker in the front office since Moreland’s first signing, but he nonetheless wound up with a partial guarantee several times larger than anyone else on the team for this year’s camp. He leads all Kings camp invitees in minutes per game so far this preseason. Neither Henderson nor Hunter has made his way into a preseason game yet, suggesting their $35K partial guarantees were designed as enticements for them to sign with Sacramento’s D-League affiliate after an end-of-preseason cut from the NBA roster.

SUNS

13 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Ronnie Price — $947,276)

Non-guaranteed players

• Kyle Casey
• Cory Jefferson
• Henry Sims
• Terrico White

Analysis: Jefferson and Sims, both of whom were on NBA rosters all of last season, would appear to have the inside track on Casey and White, neither of whom has ever played an NBA regular season game. Sims, especially, seems in a strong position, having started 32 games for the Sixers in 2014/15. Jefferson is little more than a year removed from having been the final pick of the 2014 draft, though he cracked double-digit minutes per game, at 10.1, last year with the Nets. Both Sims and Jefferson can play power forward, as can Casey, though Phoenix’s need at that position is unclear with Markieff Morris having apparently gone back on his trade demand.

WARRIORS

13 full guarantees (Smallest full guarantee: Brandon Rush, $1,270,964; Kevon Looney makes smaller salary this year but has 2016/17 fully guaranteed, too.)

Non-guaranteed players

• Chris Babb
• Ian Clark
• Ben Gordon
• Jarell Eddie
• James Michael McAdoo — $100K partial guarantee
• Tony Mitchell
• Juwan Staten

Analysis: Steve Kerr is fond of McAdoo, and despite Kerr’s absence, McAdoo’s status as the only returning player among the seven Warriors without fully guaranteed salaries and his partial guarantee, the only one on the team, puts him in strong position. Golden State wants to add another shooter, and all but Mitchell offer at least some skill in that area. Clark, Gordon and Babb are the only ones to see preseason action so far, though Clark, Gordon and Eddie have sizable chunks of salary that lock in if they make the opening night roster, a financial disadvantage if the taxpaying Warriors want to have some flexibility early in the season.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.