Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Originals 3/29/15-4/4/15

Here’s a look at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week…

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/29/15-4/4/15

In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have added a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:

“What players helped their draft stock the most with their NCAA tournament performances?” — Matthew

While I don’t think the tournament impacts where players are selected quite as much as the pre-draft workouts do, a standout performance can definitely get a player’s name on the lips of scouts and GMs around the league. With that in mind, the players who I think helped their draft value the most were Sam Dekker (Wisconsin), Jakob Poeltl (Utah),and Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky).

Dekker really opened a number of eyes around the league with his 21.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game during March Madness. He has also shown that he can play the stretch four role, which is a position that is continuing to grow in importance in today’s NBA. Dekker may have vaulted himself from being a late first round selection to hearing his name called in the late teens.

Poeltl showed a nice inside presence in his work against Jahlil Okafor of Duke during Utah’s tournament loss to the Blue Devils. Poeltl answered a number of questions with that game, and if he decides to leave school he’ll be off the board by pick No. 20. He’s a player who should probably return to school for another season though, since his post game is about as refined as mine is right now. If Poeltl continues to develop he could be a lottery pick in 2016.

As for Towns, he was already going to be a top three selection, so he hasn’t jumped all that far. He has been held back statistically by Kentucky’s platoon system and ridiculous depth this season, but in the tournament he’s really getting a chance to shine. He may have vaulted over Okafor for the top pick already. Once individual workouts begin his athleticism is likely to boost his stock even further. I’d say he’s probably going to end up going No. 1 overall at this point thanks to his late season production.

“If you were an NBA GM with the first overall draft pick…who would you take in June?” — Connor

The answer to that depends on which team I was selecting for. Roster composition is important, and if I were selecting for the Sixers for instance, I would focus on selecting a guard since they already have Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel. But if I have to make a choice I would take Towns with the top overall pick. Selecting Okafor wouldn’t be a bad move by any means, but I firmly believe that Towns’ ceiling is much higher than Okafor’s as a two-way player in the NBA.

“Does Al Jefferson opt out of his deal this summer?” — Hank

That’s a tough one to call. Jefferson is 30-years-old, and has a ton of mileage on his legs. He will have to weigh the security of opting out and signing a long-term deal against risking injury next season to try and cash in on the 2016 cap increase money that will be out there. If Charlotte were a playoff team instead of struggling mightily this season, the chances of Jefferson opting in would be much greater than they are. The seriousness of his right knee injury could also play a big part in his decision. I’d say right now that the big man will likely opt out and test the market this summer.

“Where does Rajon Rondo end up playing next season?” — Lukas

I’ll say right off the bat that I don’t believe it will be in Dallas. Rondo hasn’t been a great fit there on the court, nor with coach Rick Carlisle. This will likely be the 29-year-old’s last chance at a big contract, unless he decides to ink a one-year deal with the hope of cashing in on the salary cap increase in 2016. So he’ll likely be shooting for a maximum salary deal this summer, which many around the league, and myself, don’t believe that he is worth. But desperation can do funny things to NBA GMs, and franchises like the Knicks and Lakers, who will have plenty of cap space this offseason, just may bite the bullet and pay Rondo what he wants. If I had to pick where Rondo will end up, I’ll go with the Lakers.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for continuing to fill up my inbox with all of your submissions. Please keep them coming! I’ll be back next week with more thoughts, opinions, and answers…

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Trail Blazers

With the NBA trade deadline passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Blazers’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

The Blazers’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $23,073,077
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $15,728,810
  • Total: $38,801,887

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Suns

With the NBA trade deadline passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Suns’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

  • None

Players with options:

The Suns’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $41,038,578
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,170,465
  • Total: $43,509,043

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Prospect Profile: D’Angelo Russell

While he entered the school year not as highly touted as some of the other members of the 2014/15 freshman class, D’Angelo Russell emerged as one of the top players in college basketball. The sky would appear to be the limit for the young player, who has shot up draft boards as quickly as anyone this season.  Russell played shooting guard in college, but many pro scouts are projecting him as a point guard in the NBA, which has definitely helped increase Russell’s overall draft stock. He is currently ranked as the No. 4 prospect by both ESPN.com and DraftExpress.com, No. 3 by NBA Draft.net, and No.2 by CBSSports.com. In 35 games this season Russell averaged 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.6 steals in 33.9 minutes per outing.

NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament-2nd Round-Ohio State vs VCUThe 6’5″ guard was named to the AP All-America team. He also made first team All-Big Ten, and was the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Year as well. Russell led his Ohio State squad to the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament, but the Buckeyes lost to No. 2 seed Arizona. He was stifled on the offensive end of the court by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, whose aggressive defense helped hold Russell to a 3-for-19 shooting night, including going just 1-for-7 from beyond the arc.

Russell is not a super athletic player, instead relying more on skill, feeling, and instincts, writes Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com. His great size for a guard, and his shooting ability, give Russell an intriguing versatility since he can be paired alongside many different styles of guards and wings, Givony opines. This should allow the team that drafts him to use Russell to exploit mismatches and for his coaches to get creative with their lineups.

Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) broke down his thoughts on Russell’s offensive game, saying, “There are a number of things that Russell has done well. He has proved to be a terrific, efficient scorer despite the fact that defenses in the Big Ten keyed in on him every night as Ohio State’s only real weapon on offense. Russell took 45% of his shots from 3-point range and hit a terrific 41% . His 2-point jumpers are a little low at 40%, but his field goal percentage at the rim jumps back up to 65%. In short, he can score from anywhere on the floor.

There’s so much to love about his game,” an NBA GM told Ford about Russell. “Even when he has a bad game, it looks like a good one because every time the ball leaves his lands, it looks like it’s going in. He plays with such great confidence and has a terrific feel. I think he could be a James Harden-type player at the next level. That’s what kind of scorer and playmaker he could be.

Like the majority of young players, Russell has a number of things he needs to work on in order to transition to a successful professional career. Offensively he needs to learn to attack the basket more instead of settling for long range shots. Russell also needs to improve upon his finishing ability close to the rim, and he also could stand to get to the free throw line more often. His lack of elite speed and athleticism will make this a bit of a challenge in the NBA, but Russell’s basketball IQ should help him overcome this deficiency. As a ball-handler Russell also needs to learn to be more careful, as his turnover rate of 2.9 per game is a touch high. The 6’5″ playmaker is also an effective rebounder, though he’ll need to bulk up if he wants to be a factor on the boards in the NBA.

The guard is a capable defender, though he’ll struggle at first with the bigger, faster players in the NBA. Russell doesn’t have great lateral quickness, which he’ll have to compensate for with his smarts. One big knock on Russell is that he does tend to be a touch passive on the defensive end, and the player has been known to coast and take a number of possessions off, Givony notes.

Russell’s limitations make him a player who is unlikely to be able to carry an NBA team on the offensive end his rookie season, which could place the guard in a difficult situation. He will need talent around him to best utilize his complementary skills, which isn’t something that lottery teams generally possess an abundance of. Russell isn’t a player who will be capable of turning around a franchise on his own, but he is a fantastic prospect who should continue to improve as he matures. A number of scouts have compared Russell’s upside to that of Harden and Manu Ginobili, both of whom are crafty, intelligent scorers who get by quite well in the NBA without being freakishly athleticIf Russell approaches the production level of either of those players, the team that drafts him will likely be overjoyed. 

While Russell may not end up being the first guard selected in June’s draft, he’s a lock to be taken amongst the top five picks. His main competition is Emmanuel Mudiay, who is ranked No. 3 overall by both Givony and Ford. Mudiay is almost sure to blow away scouts with his athleticism once individual pre-draft workouts begin, something Russell won’t necessarily do. Russell isn’t as flashy a player, and his NBA upside may not be quite as high as Mudiay’s thanks to their physical differences. But Russell is most certainly a noteworthy talent who should improve any franchise that selects him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Coaches Fared After College-To-NBA Move

The Nuggets and Magic are reportedly planning to target University of Florida coach Billy Donovan this coming offseason, and Donovan is apparently as receptive as ever to taking an NBA job. He has a track record of producing successful NBA players be the most decorated college coach to come to the NBA in quite some time, perhaps since Rick Pitino, who coached Donovan in college, made his leap from Kentucky to the Celtics. That didn’t turn out well for Pitino, and he certainly wasn’t alone. No coach who has gone directly from a college job to an NBA head coaching job since the turn of the century has guided his team to the playoffs. Of course, that would change if Brad Stevens makes the postseason with his Celtics this year, and Boston is tied with the Heat for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Here’s a look at each of the coaches who’ve made the college-to-NBA jump since 2000. Note that this doesn’t include former college coaches who were in other jobs, such as NBA assistant coaching gigs, when they became NBA head coaches.

  • Brad Stevens, Butler to Celtics, 2013 — 59-98, no playoffs (yet)
  • Mike Dunlap, St. John’s (assistant) to Bobcats, 2012 — 21-61, no playoffs, fired after one season
  • Reggie Theus, New Mexico State to Kings, 2007 — 44-62, no playoffs, fired midway through 2008/09 season
  • Mike Montgomery, Stanford to Warriors, 2004 — 68-96, no playoffs, fired in 2006
  • Leonard Hamilton, Miami (Fla.) to Wizards, 2000 — 19-63, no playoffs, resigned in 2001
  • Lon Kruger, Illinois to Hawks, 2000 — 69-122, no playoffs, fired midway through 2002/03 season

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Sixers

With the NBA trade deadline passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Sixers’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

  • None

The Sixers’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $26,703,760
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,981,791
  • Total: $29,685,551

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Magic

With the NBA trade deadline passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Magic’s cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

  • None

The Magic’s Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $38,875,806
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $9,042,335
  • Total: $47,918,141

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Update On Traded 2015 First-Round Picks

The regular season is down to its final two weeks, and as teams clinch playoff spots and seedings, the draft order is solidifying in much the same way. The final order won’t be set until the NBA’s draft lottery on May 19th, but plenty will be determined by the end of the regular season. That includes the fate of some of the traded first round picks that have protection attached to them.

The Rockets have clinched a playoff berth, which means the Lakers have clinched the rights to Houston’s first-round pick this year. Similarly, it’s already mathematically impossible for the Celtics to receive the first-round picks that could have come their way from the Sixers and Timberwolves, and the Nuggets won’t be getting the Grizzlies’ pick this year.

Likely outcomes are apparent for all but two of the protected first-round picks that were liable to change hands this year, though the Sixers are the would-be beneficiaries of two picks that remain squarely in limbo. The next two weeks will determine whether Oklahoma City’s pick goes to Philadelphia, and the same is true for the Heat’s pick if they make the playoffs. If Miami doesn’t, the lottery will likely decide whether Philly gets that pick.

Our Reverse Standings help you follow the action on a day-by-day basis. The protection attached to each pick that has been traded is outlined at the bottom of the standings. Today, as we’ve done a few times since the start of the season, we’re taking a closer look. The traded first-round picks that involve protection are listed below and categorized by the relative likelihood of the picks going from team to team.

Tossups

Team: Thunder (42-33)
Pick traded to: Sixers
Protection: Top 18
Current position: tied for 18th

Team: Heat (34-40)
Pick traded to: Sixers
Protection: Top 10
Current position: tied for 15th

Traded picks likely to change hands:

Team: Pelicans (40-34)
Pick traded to: Rockets
Protection: Top 3 and 20-30
Current position: 14th

Traded picks that will change hands:

Team: Rockets (51-24)
Pick traded to: Lakers
Protection: Top 14
Current position: tied for 27th

Traded picks likely to stay put:

Team: Mavericks (46-29)
Pick traded to: Celtics
Protection: Top 3 and 15-30
Current position: 22nd

Team: Kings (26-48)
Pick traded to: Bulls
Protection: Top 10
Current position: 6th

Team: Lakers (20-54)
Pick traded to: Sixers
Protection: Top 5
Current position: 4th

Traded picks that will stay put:

Team: 76ers (18-58)
Pick traded to: Celtics
Protection: Top 14
Current position: 3rd

Team: Timberwolves (16-59)
Pick traded to: Celtics
Protection: Top 12
Current position: 2nd

Team: Grizzlies (51-24)
Pick traded to: Nuggets
Protection: Top 5 and 15-30
Current position: tied for 27th

Additional notes:

  • The Clippers will send their first-round pick to the Celtics regardless of finish, since there’s no protection on the pick. It’s the No. 26 selection as it stands now.
  • The Hawks have the right to swap picks with the Nets, and since Atlanta has already clinched a better record than Brooklyn, the exchange is set to take place. Brooklyn, which is currently tied for the 15th spot in the draft order, is poised to send that pick to Atlanta, which occupies the 29th spot.
  • The Heat’s pick is listed in the tossups category even though there’s a five-spot difference between their position and the protected range because they’re separated from the Hornets, who are in the 10th spot, by only two games. By contrast, the Lakers are likely to keep their top-five protected pick even though they have only the fourth worst record because their 20-54 mark is six games worse than the 26-48 mark that the Kings, current occupants of the No. 6 spot, have compiled.
  • To see what happens to traded picks that aren’t conveyed this year, check out the database of traded picks by round that Mark Porcaro compiled for Hoops Rumors. It runs down the protection on each pick through 2021.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Thunder

With the NBA trade deadline passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Thunder’s cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

  • None

Players with options:

  • None

The Thunder’s Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $78,260,713
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Total: $78,260,713

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.