Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Originals 3/15/15-3/21/15

Here’s a look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week…

  • Chuck Myron ran down potential free agents who could be hitting the market in 2018 when the salary cap may decrease.
  • Chuck listed all of the NBA players making over $10MM per season who had won NCAA championships.
  • Check out Hoops Rumors’ 2014/15 Reverse Standings to see what your favorite team’s current chances of nabbing the No. 1 overall pick in June’s NBA draft are.
  • Chuck listed all the players who are drawing paychecks from multiple teams.
  • The Jazz currently lead the NBA in 10-day contract signings, as Chuck relayed in his look around the league.
  • I ran down the Cavaliers’ salary cap commitments for the 2015/16 campaign.
  • Chuck looked at adjustments to qualifying offers based on the starter criteria.
  • If you missed our weekly live chat you can check out the full transcript here.
  • Chuck ran down the players who have the largest cap holds for the 2015/16 season.
  • Stay on top of all the players who are inked to 10-day contracts with our tracker.
  • Chuck looked at the colleges that have produced players who earn more than $10MM per season.
  • I broke down the Mavericks’ salary commitments for the 2015/16 season.
  • In a reader poll we asked you to predict the annual salary Reggie Jackson will earn on his next contract.
  • Here’s how you can follow Hoops Rumors on Facebook, Twitter, and your RSS feed.

Colleges That Produced Multiple $10MM+ Players

The eye-popping volume of high-profile prospects at the University of Kentucky makes their NCAA tournament games required viewing for just about anyone involved in NBA personnel matters. The Wildcats boast six players within the top 50 on Chad Ford’s ESPN.com Big Board and five among the top 50 prospects that Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress compiles. Coach John Calipari’s presence seemingly ensures that Kentucky will produce a steady stream of NBA players, and NBA stars, for years to come.

Already, Kentucky is one of two schools with four former players making at least $10MM in NBA salary this year. The other school is an SEC rival. Florida boasts just as many, and another is probably on his way, as Bradley Beal will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this year.

Eight other schools can boast multiple $10MM players, counting those who signed extensions this past fall that will give them eight-figure salaries next season and those who are receiving $10MM this season on contracts that were waived via the amnesty provision. Still, bluebloods like North Carolina (Ty Lawson), Indiana (Eric Gordon) and Georgetown (Roy Hibbert) only have one such player apiece.

Here’s a breakdown of schools that have produced multiple NBA players making $10MM-plus:

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Players On The Cap For Multiple NBA Teams

Jameer Nelson is a one-time All-Star who carved out a consistent role for many years with the Magic, but only now, in his 11th season, has he represented seven figure cap hits to multiple teams. The Magic still have him on their books for $2MM this year, the result of having waived his partially guaranteed contract this summer. The point guard found a deal for the full value of the room exception from the Mavericks, and a pair of midseason trades took him to Denver by way of the Celtics. The Nuggets have Nelson’s $2.732MM salary for this season on their cap, just as the Magic have $2MM for Nelson on theirs.

Nelson and John Salmons are the only players this season who account for at least $1MM in cap hits to more than one team, but players who represent at least some money against the cap for more than one NBA franchise are not unusual. There are more than 30 such players this season, including swingman Chris Johnson and forward Quincy Miller, who are each on the books for three different clubs.

There are lots more players who’ve drawn paychecks from more than one team but only show up on the cap for one. That’s a group that includes traded players as well as those waived via the amnesty clause. However, our focus here is on a narrower but still fairly robust bunch who’ve managed to hit the cap in multiple locations. Here’s a complete list, including each player’s respective cap hit. Note that cap hit doesn’t always align precisely with the player’s salary.

* — Cotton’s figure with the Jazz assumes he’s making a prorated minimum salary on the multiyear deal he signed this week, though that’s not entirely certain.

** — Miller’s figure with the Pistons assumes he’s making a prorated minimum salary on the two-year deal he signed last week, though that’s not entirely certain.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Mavericks

With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in at $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented  an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue by taking a look at the Mavericks’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

The Mavs’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $28,064,039
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $14,615,974
  • Total: $42,680,013

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Players With The Largest Cap Holds For 2015/16

Bird rights help teams re-sign their own players, but cap holds are what prevent the same teams from loading up on high-salaried players of their own while also spending lavishly on free agents from other teams. It’s still possible for teams to do that to a degree, depending on the amount of cap flexibility they have, their willingness to renounce their Bird rights to some of their players, and just how high the cap escalates from one year to the next. Cap holds will be less troublesome after next season, when the cap is expected to surge into $90MM territory.

Still, for this year, cap holds are what stand between the illusion of cap space and reality. The Grizzlies have only about $38MM in guaranteed salary for next season, but the notion that they’ll enter the summer with significant cap room is far-fetched if they have designs on keeping Marc Gasol. The sought-after Spanish center will represent a cap hold of about 30% of the salary cap, equivalent to the maximum salary he can make next season. For the right to give Gasol a fifth year in his next deal, along with higher annual raises than he can see elsewhere, the Grizzlies have to keep that maximum amount, likely to be in excess of $18MM, on their books, and they wouldn’t be able to use it to sign other free agents. The Grizzlies surely wouldn’t renounce their Bird rights to Gasol, and the cap hold that comes with it, unless he commits to another team. Those rights are automatically renounced if he signs elsewhere, but that’s clearly not the ideal outcome for Memphis. Factor in Jeff Green‘s $9.2MM player option, and it seems certain that the Grizzlies would only get to use cap space to replace players who depart this summer, not to build around them.

The Knicks are in a different situation with Andrea Bargnani. There’s apparently mutual interest in a new deal, but likely at a drastically reduced price compared to the $11.5MM he’s making this season. Cap holds usually represent much higher amounts than a player’s previous salary, to account for the potential of a raise, so Bargnani’s cap hold will come in at $17.25MM. New York, with only about $32.4MM in guaranteed salary for next season, would surely prefer to use most of that $17.25MM worth of potential cap space on others. Thus, it seems likely that unless the Knicks and Bargnani agree to a new, cheaper deal during the July Moratorium and quickly finalize the contract at moratorium’s end, the team would renounce his Bird rights. The team could still circle back to sign him using a smaller chunk of cap space or the room exception.

Here’s a look at every soon-to-be free agent whose cap hold will represent at least $10MM on the books for their respective teams this summer. Players who have options on their contracts aren’t listed, so conceivably, this list could be even longer. In any case, the players atop the list will likely represent cap holds equivalent to the maximum salaries, which are based on experience and a percentage of the salary cap. The precise values of the maxes won’t be known until after the moratorium, so we’ve included last year’s figures as a guide. Those numbers are likely to escalate this season with the rising cap.

Note: The figures here are rounded to the nearest $1K.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

10-Day Contract Tracker

The 10-day contract isn’t just the domain of the fringe prospect. It’s a path that several notable names take to re-establish their NBA careers. This season, players who were once taken with the first overall pick (Kenyon Martin), the second overall pick (Michael Beasley) and the fourth overall pick (Tyrus Thomas) have all signed 10-day contracts.

The bulk of the signings that take place this time of year are usually of the 10-day variety, and we’re keeping on top of all of them. Hoops Rumors has created a database that allows you to track every 10-day signing all season long. The 10-Day Contract Tracker includes information on all 10-day contracts signed from the 2006/07 season on, giving you a chance to identify trends regarding your favorite teams and players. The search filters in the database make it easy to sort by team, player and year. You can even see whether a player and team signed a second 10-day contract, and if the short-term deals led to an agreement that covered the rest of the season.

For instance, if you want to see how many 10-day deals Lou Amundson has signed over the course of his career, you can find that information here. Similarly, if you want to see all the 10-day contracts the Mavericks have signed in recent years, you can do so here.

A link to our 10-Day Contract Tracker can be found at any time in the Tools menu at the top of the page, or in the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.” We’ll be keeping it up to date for the rest of the season, so be sure to check back to keep tabs on the latest signings as they become official.

Jazz Lead NBA In 10-Day Contract Signings

The Jazz under GM Dennis Lindsey have proven that they’ll dig deep to find talent. They use the waiver wire, work out a ton of draft prospects each year, and, this season, they’ve signed 13.3% of all the 10-day contracts issued across the NBA. They’ve inked 10 such contracts with six different players, both league highs. Bryce Cotton this week joined Elijah Millsap as the second among those six to earn a deal that runs at least until the end of the season. Four weeks are still left before the regular season is over, and it would be surprising if the Jazz didn’t continue to make entries in our 10-Day Contract Tracker.

Five other teams have handed out six 10-day contracts, while 20 of the NBA’s 30 teams have signed at least one 10-day contract this year. We’ve ranked each team by the number of 10-day deals its given out, with the recipients in parentheses.

Qualifying Offer Adjustments Via Starter Criteria

The timing of the three-team trade that sent Iman Shumpert to the Cavaliers on January 5th was likely influenced more by the looming leaguewide contract guarantee date than by any other factor. Still, it was rather significant that the move came after Shumpert had played his 24th game of the season, having started each of them. That was precisely the number of starts that Shumpert needed to make this season to average 41 starts over this season and last, which triggered a bump in his qualifying offer via the league’s so-called starter criteria. Shumpert hasn’t started a single game since the trade, but the Cavs will have to make a qualifying offer worth $4,433,683, instead of $3,695,169, to match offers for him in restricted free agency this summer.

Qualifying offers took on a new level of importance this past summer, when Greg Monroe followed through on his threat to sign his qualifying offer from the Pistons as a means to control his future and reach unrestricted free agency as soon as possible. Eric Bledsoe seemingly came close to doing so before he ended up with a five-year, $70MM deal with the Suns. Kevin Seraphin signed his qualifying offer from the Wizards, joining Monroe in a move that only 16 others have made since 1995. A report before the trade deadline this year indicated that Reggie Jackson was open to signing a qualifying offer from the Thunder.

The qualifying offer almost always represents a steeply discounted salary for a player of the likes of Monroe, Bledsoe and Jackson, which helps explain why Monroe is probably the best player ever to have signed one. Still, for others, like Seraphin, it represents a salary in line with their value. That’s why the starter criteria, which help determine how much qualifying offers are worth, are a key factor for many.

The starter criteria are fulfilled if a player eligible for restricted free agency makes 41 or more starts or plays 2,000 minutes in the season preceding the end of his contract, or in the average of the two seasons preceding the end of his contract. The following are the consequences for meeting or not meeting the starter criteria as they appear in our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry on qualifying offers and as informed by Larry Coon’s invaluable Salary Cap FAQ:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all others, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

The final four weeks of the season will be crucial for a pair of players eligible for qualifying offers this summer. Henry Sims of the Sixers needs to make 10 more starts to bump his qualifying offer from $1,181,348 to $2,725,003. That’s an iffy proposition, since he’s been in and out of the starting lineup this season and last made a start on March 2nd. The Pelicans don’t have enough games left for Norris Cole to make enough starts, but if he averages 32.7 minutes per game over the 15 contests remaining on the team’s schedule, his qualifying offer will go from $3,036,927 to $4,433,683. That’s unlikely but conceivable, since he’s averaging 26.8 MPG as a Pelican.

The following players are former second-round picks or undrafted players who’ve already triggered the starter criteria and are due qualifying offers of $2,725,003 this summer. Their previous qualifying offers are listed by their names.

These are the players selected with picks 10-30 in the 2011 draft who’ve triggered the starter criteria for qualifying offers of $4,433,683 in the offseason ahead. Again, the previous qualifying offers are listed next to their names.

These are 2011 lottery picks who almost certainly won’t meet the starter criteria, meaning their qualifying offers will decline to $4,045,894. The qualifying offers they had been in line to make are listed by their names.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Cavaliers

With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in at $67.4MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented  an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue by taking a look at the Cavs’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

The Cavs’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $26,340,113
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $63,044,806
  • Total: $89,384,919

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2014/15 NBA Reverse Standings

The 2014/15 regular season has only four weeks to go, and as the playoffs near for some teams, many scouts and executives around the league are already drawing a sharp focus on the 2015 NBA draft. They’re no doubt cognizant of the place in the order where their respective teams are slated to pick, and with the Hoops Rumors Reverse Standings, which list the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, you can easily follow along, too. We update these standings daily to reflect the outcomes of the games that took place the night before.

The Reverse Standings take into account playoff teams in each conference, so they’re essentially a reflection of what the 2015 first-round order would look like if the lottery goes according to the odds. Traded picks are indicated via footnotes. For instance, the note attached to the Thunder’s pick shows that they’ll send it to the Sixers if it falls outside the top 18 selections. The final four weeks of the season determine the pick’s fate, since the Thunder are in 14th place in the Reverse Standings as the non-playoff team with the best record, but they’re only there because they would lose a tiebreaker for the last postseason berth to Pelicans, who occupy the 18th spot.

The existence of the lottery means there’s no guarantee that teams atop the Reverse Standings will draft in the order in which they finish, but the worse a club’s record, the better shot it has at landing the cream of the 2015 draft class. This year’s top prospects, including Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns, aren’t as highly touted as the elite 2014 draftees were, but there’s still plenty of star potential.

Our Reverse Standings feature can be found at anytime on our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.” It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2015. Be sure to check back often!