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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

May 16th, 2014 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $63,970,632
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,810,928
  • Cap Holds: $15,406,048
  • Total: $81,187,608

In the span of eight days, the Warriors went from an ex-Knick as their coach to someone who seemed destined to become a future Knick. Instead, Steve Kerr will be on the Warriors bench next season, overseeing an offense with a few triangle-inspired principles but with a heavy dose of Stephen Curry in the pick-and-roll, as he told Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group. Kerr cites Gregg Popovich, who coached him for four seasons in San Antonio, as an influence, but it’s a stretch to declare him a member of the vaunted Popovich coaching tree, or any coaching tree at all, since he’s never coached before. He walks into the job with the sort of comfortable relationships with co-owner Joe Lacob, GM Bob Myers and other Warriors bigwigs that predecessor Mark Jackson didn’t have, but the pressure for Kerr to succeed in a field that’s new to him will be instant. Lacob expected this year’s squad to be a top-four team in a loaded Western Conference, and with limited flexibility for changes to the roster over the summer, the onus will be on Kerr to lift the team to that elite level immediately to avoid the sort of in-house scrutiny that dogged Jackson.

The club enters the offseason with commitments that slightly exceed the projected $63.2MM salary cap. Even if the cap winds up going even higher, any room the Warriors could create would almost certainly not be significant enough to entice the team to renounce its cap holds and officially dip under the cap, thus causing the forfeiture of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception. That mid-level, worth $5.305MM, figures to be the team’s primary offseason tool. The biannual exception is unavailable, since the team used it to sign Jermaine O’Neal last year. The projected increase to the tax threshold for next season doesn’t get as much publicity as the rise in the salary cap, but it’s actually a larger jump, exceeding $5MM. The ability to spend up to $77MM without incurring the tax gives Golden State plenty of cushion to use the full mid-level, re-sign their trio of free agents, and explore trades that would add to the payroll.

Lacob has expressed his willingness to pay the tax in the right circumstance, and it might come to that if the team is to become a true title contender. Still, short of the chance to acquire a superstar, the Warriors seem more likely to lurk beneath the threshold and revisit the idea of going over it closer to the deadline, when their relative title chances will be more apparent. Golden State pulled off the Andre Iguodala trade last year with much less flexibility beneath the tax than it has now, so the front office has established that it’s capable of finding a way to manage an upgrade even under challenging financial circumstances. Still, the Iguodala deal cost Golden State its ability to promise a team a first-round pick before 2019, and the Warriors don’t have the haul of expiring contracts they needed to make the salaries work last time, making it tough to manage a trade that makes a difference without cutting into the core of the roster.

The most obvious target is the man whom Iguodala knocked from the starting lineup. It was Jackson’s call to bring Harrison Barnes off the bench, and it’s not out of the question that Kerr has different ideas. Still, the Warriors starting five of Iguodala, Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee and Andrew Bogut was a tantalizingly efficient unit, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That’s the second-best margin of any five-man unit in the league that saw at least 250 minutes together this season. It’s a sign of success, and a sign of failure for the bench, since the team outscored opponents by just 5.4 points per 100 possessions overall.

Barnes doesn’t deserve all the blame for a group of reserves that suffered from the departures of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, but the seventh overall pick from 2012 suffered a disturbing stall in his development, with most of his numbers holding steady or declining slightly in spite of more minutes per game. His PER fell from 11.0 as a rookie to 9.8 this season, and most lottery picks who record sub-10 PERs have trouble avoiding the “bust” label. Barnes, who’ll turn 22 in a couple of weeks, seemingly still has time to turn his career around and fulfill his promise. While that possibility makes it difficult to fathom trading him away, it also makes this summer perhaps the perfect time to strike, before the perception of his upside changes for the worse.

The Grizzlies reportedly made a push to trade for Barnes at the deadline, and the Cavs apparently inquired about him, too, but the Warriors brushed off such talks and Lacob publicly cast doubt on the idea of letting him go. The Warriors made counter-proposals in response to a few offers, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com reported as he passed along a list of names that intrigued the team: Greg Monroe, Thaddeus Young, Tristan Thompson, Kenneth Faried, John Henson, Amir Johnson and Kevin Love. Some of those names would appear on any team’s list of intriguing players, and others are cornerstones that their clubs would be reluctant to trade. Still, the Warriors aren’t afraid to try to hit home runs, as their pursuit of Dwight Howard last summer made clear, and the likes of Love can’t be considered out of the realm of possibility, no matter how unlikely they are to wind up in Golden State next season.

Barnes might be the team’s best trade asset, but he isn’t the only one, even if the team does have a few sacred cows. Trading Curry seems unthinkable, and Lacob has vowed to keep Thompson, who’s up for an extension this summer, for the long haul. Bogut just received an extension this past fall, and while his inability to remain healthy is troubling, his presence as a defensive anchor, not to mention his long-term contract, would make it tough for the Warriors to send him away.

Lee inspires much disdain from critics who see beyond his impressive traditional stats, reminiscent of the advanced metrics community’s vitriolic deconstructions of Rudy Gay. The Warriors made their 2013 playoff run largely without his help, save for his laudatory efforts to play through a painful hip injury. He nonetheless has more than $30MM and two years left on his deal, and it might prove impossible to find a team willing to take that on and give back fair value in return this summer. Iguodala has changed teams the past two summers, and if the front office determines it was better off in 2012/13 with reserves like Jack and Landry than this past season with Iggy, there’s a decent chance he’d be on the move again. The Warriors might also attempt to trade bench players for bench players, banking on their ability to get more than they give.

The only pressure the Warriors would have to make a major upgrade this summer would be self-created, and there’s plenty of incentive for the team to concentrate on finding the best mid-level fit available. Curry and Thompson are young, with room for continued improvement, and the same can be said of Barnes, providing that this past season was an aberration. Festus Ezeli was impressive as a rookie, and his return to health bodes well for the bench. No matter what, negotiating that extension with Thompson will be a priority. Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group (no relation) suggested recently that the shooting guard will wind up with $12MM annual salaries, putting him on par with Ty Lawson, who was probably the best player on a 57-win Nuggets team in 2012/13. The Warriors no doubt have higher aspirations than to mimic the team they pushed aside in last year’s playoffs, but Thompson is at best second on Golden State’s hierarchy to Curry, who’s on an even cheaper deal for another three seasons. The Warriors appear to have the foundation and framework needed to contend. The question is whether they have the front office savvy and patience necessary to fill in the gaps.

Cap footnotes

* — Green’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 1st.
** — Crawford’s qualifying offer is worth $3,206,867.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

May 15th, 2014 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (15th overall)
  • 2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $47,057,817
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,658,241
  • Cap Holds: $13,843,649
  • Total: $62,559,707

Rarely does much optimism surround a team that went 38-44 in the regular season and enters the draft without a lottery pick. Yet such is the case with the Hawks, whose injury-depleted roster just barely held off the Knicks for the last playoff berth in the Eastern Conference but nearly toppled the No. 1 seed Pacers in the first round. Much of Atlanta’s success in that series was likely a product of Indiana’s disturbing late-season malaise, but Jeff Teague once more proved a more valuable player in the playoffs, where it really counts, than in the regular season. Team’s all-out attack from behind the three-point arc engendered faith in first-year coach Mike Budenholzer and the team’s trio of inside-out big men. All three — Paul Millsap, Pero Antic and Mike Scott — were on bargain deals.

Millsap has one more year left at the team-friendly rate of $9.5MM, and the Hawks intend to keep Antic past the point when his paltry $1.25MM salary becomes fully guaranteed this summer. Scott’s contract is up, but he’s a restricted free agent, and Hawks GM Danny Ferry can match any offer. But it would be far-fetched if Ferry were content to take a passive approach this summer and hope improved health and the return of Al Horford would be enough for the team to win a round or two in the playoffs.

The Hawks can free up close to enough cap room to register a maximum offer for restricted free agents coming off rookie scale contracts, and it appears as though the team is considering a run at Pistons big man Greg Monroe. Ferry’s agent from his playing days, David Falk, is Monroe’s representative, and there are conflicting reports on just what new Pistons boss Stan Van Gundy intends to do with the former seventh overall pick. Still, the Hawks have Millsap and Horford firmly entrenched at either starting position that Monroe would occupy, and after competing for time with Andre Drummond and Josh Smith this past season, I’d be surprised if Monroe jumped into another crowded frontcourt.

A trade, of course, could change that dynamic, and Ferry would surely have no shortage of intriguing offers for either Horford or Millsap, both underpaid, if he were to put them on the block. A max deal for Monroe, who turns 24 this summer, would give Atlanta a young building block to pair with Teague, who’s facing his 26th birthday, with both on long-term deals. The trick would be finding a trade partner who can provide a piece that fits in exchange for one of the team’s incumbent big men. In that scenario, the Hawks would ideally bring in a wing player who can complement Kyle Korver‘s expert outside shooting with defense and dribble penetration at a level of production and a price point similar to Horford’s or Millsap’s. That’s a lot to ask of Ferry or any basketball executive.

Still, the team knows it needs one more star. The idea of playing with Teague, Horford and Millsap reportedly intrigues free agents, and while the Hawks probably won’t land LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony this summer, Ferry’s pursuit of Dwight Howard last year showed that he’s not afraid to make a pitch to anyone. It wouldn’t be shocking if the team made a run at Gordon Hayward, Luol Deng or Lance Stephenson, all of whom have appeared in the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings as among the 10 best free agent options for the summer ahead. I’m just speculating about those names, but they’d probably be within Atlanta’s price range.

The Hawks are also well-positioned to attack the more star-studded 2015 free agent class, as the team only has Horford, Teague and Korver with guaranteed contracts beyond next season. The prospect of staring at those three plus upward of $35MM in cap flexibility 12 months from now will surely make Ferry think hard before committing long-term money to anyone other than a superstar. Even so, signing a free agent with the cap room likely available to the Hawks this summer wouldn’t preclude the team from clearing enough or nearly enough cash next year to go after the likes of Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, or even LeBron.

All of that make it critical that the team not overspend on Scott or Shelvin Mack, another soon-to-be restricted free agent. Scott, whom the team unearthed at pick No. 43 in 2012, represents the most productive of the players from the team’s brief draft history under Ferry. He promises to develop into a valuable rotation-level role player who can contribute to even the best of teams, but the Hawks would be wise to let him sign elsewhere if another team shows strong interest. Mack made a valuable contribution this past season as a backup for Teague and as a spot starter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks decline to tender qualifying offers for him and for Scott, clearing $2.5MM worth of cap flexibility. That extra room could make all the difference for a more desirable free agent. Atlanta may also elect to float the qualifying offers with the intention of withdrawing them should one of their primary free agent targets show interest, but that would be a greater risk, since Scott and Mack would be free to quickly accept the offers during the July Moratorium.

Ferry acquired a pair of projects in the draft last year, trading for 16th overall pick Lucas Nogueira, who didn’t sign and spent the season overseas instead, and taking Dennis Schröder at No. 17. Last year’s draft was unusually talent-poor, and this year’s prospects are much more promising, even if they aren’t quite as ballyhooed as they were a year ago. The Hawks are set up to find a more valuable player this year even though they’re drafting at more or less the same position, and Ferry will surely enter draft night with a player or two he’d love to see fall to No. 15. Still, trading the pick seems a distinct possibility, perhaps in exchange for a future first-rounder. The Hawks have a chance to make a move toward title contention in the next year or two, and extra cap flexibility, plus the trade bait that a future first-round pick represents, seem more attractive than a mid-first-round rookie.

Ferry entered last summer with much the same aspirations, and though he accomplished plenty, swiping Millsap at a discount, retaining Teague and Korver, and plucking Antic out of Greece, the Hawks fielded a team that was no better in 2013/14 than it was the year before. Injuries pushed the team even farther down the standings. The Hawks could have ended up with a lottery pick if they’d been just a game or two worse, but it was a stroke of luck for them to make the playoffs and draw a Pacers team that’s wheezed toward the finish line. The Hawks didn’t win, but their showing against Indiana piqued the interest of a long-dormant Atlanta market. The Hawks aren’t a hot ticket quite yet, but their playoff momentum probably bought enough patience for the franchise to allow Ferry to hold on to his cap flexibility for 2015 if his aggressive pitches fall on deaf ears this summer. The offseason ahead could be a pivot point for the Hawks, but it doesn’t have to be.

Cap footnotes

* — Antic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
** — The Hawks hold the draft rights to Nogueira, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 16th overall pick last year, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 16th overall pick in this year’s draft.
*** — Mack and Scott’s cap holds would be $915,243, respectively, if the Hawks do not tender a qualifying offer.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Prospect Profile: Joe Harris

May 12th, 2014 at 7:02pm CST by Zachary Links

The Virginia Cavaliers didn’t get as far as they hoped in the NCAA Tourney, but they still turned in one of their best seasons in campaign history.  Their success was in no small part due to the play of senior Joe Harris, who helped keep defenses honest with his dangerous outside shooting.  The senior terrorized the ACC in his final season and he’s anxious to try and do the same at the next level.

“I can shoot the ball and defend at a high level and I think that’s a pretty good combination for any NBA team.  You can never enough shooters on any team.  i’m fortunate enough to bring that ability to the table,” Harris told HoopsRumors.com. NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament-East Regional-Virginia vs Michigan State

Harris, who averaged 12.0 PPG and shot 40% from beyond the arc this season, stands apart from a lot of the other 2014 draft hopefuls.  While this year’s class is deep overall and chock full of intriguing athletes, the general feeling is that there aren’t a ton of great shooters in the first round.  If you want to come away with a jumper you can count on, you’ll likely have to scour the second round for players like the Virginia star.

Harris arrived on campus with an automatic shot but his play on the other side of the floor left much to be desired.  He was tasked with upping his D and, with time, he morphed into a stout defender.

“I think the system that I played in taught defensive principals and the defensive mindset that you need to have.  Of course, defense is more than a mindset, you have to have the lateral quickness too, but the principals and that mindset and helped me become a much better defender.  Coach [Tony Bennett‘s] program made me better and I’ll carry that with me to the NBA,” said the small forward.

The 22-year-old is confident but knows that there is still a lot of work ahead of him.  Harris says he’ll be working to improve his ball handling and overall athleticism, two of his commonly cited weaknesses.  He’s currently training alongside fellow Mark Bartelstein clients Doug McDermott, Nik Stauskas, and Sean Kilpatrick in an effort to improve in not just those areas but “all areas.”

As a wing with range, some have been quick to compare Harris to Kyle Korver.  Harris, who called the Hawks forward an “unbelievable shooter,” doesn’t see it, but he stressed that they are similar in that both can bring much more to the table than three-point shooting.  In the coming weeks, Harris will be traveling to the West Coast for individual workouts with the Suns and at least one of the Los Angeles teams before heading to the Lone Star State for auditions with the Mavs and Spurs.  Between those sessions and the combines, Harris is hopeful that he’ll find not only an NBA opportunity, but the “right fit” to help make his transition to the Association a seamless one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Maximum Salary

May 12th, 2014 at 1:41pm CST by Chuck Myron

Superstars like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony are often referred to as “maximum-salary players” as they approach free agency, since they’re likely to command the most lucrative contract offers possible when they hit the market. That holds regardless of whether they’re making less than the max on their current deals, as in the case of James, or have suggested they’ll take less when they next sign, as Anthony has. The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement limits players to salaries based on a percentage of the salary cap, but the maximum varies from player to player. That helps explain why Anthony could sign at a discount this summer and still make a higher salary than James, even if the four-time MVP ends up with the max.

If a player has been in the NBA for six years or fewer, he can earn up to 25% of the salary cap in the first year of his deal. Players with seven to nine years of experience can earn up to 30%, while veterans with 10 or more years in the NBA are eligible for up to 35% of the cap.

Those percentages are somewhat deceiving, since the NBA uses factors to determine the maximum salary that are slightly different than what goes into calculating the salary cap. That’s why James Harden made $13,701,250 on his max deal in 2013/14 rather than $14,669,750, which is 25% of the $58.679MM salary cap for 2013/14. For players eligible for the 30% max in 2013/14, their top salary was $16,441,500, and the 35% max was $19,181,750. These figures will fluctuate from year to year, depending on the league’s projected Basketball Related Income for a given season.

There are a number of exceptions to the maximum salary, as follows:

  • The maximum salary only applies to the first year of a multiyear contract. For example, if Eric Bledsoe were to sign a maximum-salary deal this summer, he would be subject to the maximum salary for the first season, with either 7.5% or 4.5% raises, depending on whether he signs with the Suns or another team. So by the third or fourth year of his contract, he could be earning significantly more than the max.
  • A free agent’s maximum salary is always at least 105% of his previous salary. For instance, Anthony’s 2013/14 salary was $21,388,954. He is eligible to sign a new contract that will allow him to earn a maximum of $22,458,402 — 105% of his prior salary. That’s why he could take slightly less and still earn more than James, whose salary in 2013/14 was $19,067,500.
  • A first-round pick coming off his four-year rookie scale contract is eligible for a maximum-salary contract extension worth 30% of the cap (rather than 25%) if he meets one of the Derrick Rose Rule criteria. That entails winning an MVP award, being voted an All-Star Game starter at least twice, or being named to an All-NBA team at least twice.

There were 16 players who were either playing on some form of max deal or had signed max extensions when I examined the league’s maximum-salary players in August. Those ranks have since swollen to 18 with the additions of Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins, who inked max extensions. The list demonstrates the many caveats and variations involved with max contracts, which ranged in value from slightly more than $57.5MM to nearly $123.7MM in 2013/14. Simply put, it’s difficult to define the NBA’s maximum salary in a broader sense, since it applies to individual players and not the league as a whole.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

A version of this post, written by Luke Adams, was initially published on May 8th, 2012.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

May 11th, 2014 at 9:43pm CST by Zachary Links

Here’s this week’s look back at the original reporting and analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff..

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Mid-Level Exception

May 11th, 2014 at 3:41pm CST by Chuck Myron

The mid-level exception is the most common way for NBA teams that are over the salary cap to sign free agents from other clubs. Teams can make use of the mid-level every season, and they can split it among multiple players. Different mid-level exceptions apply based on a team’s proximity to the cap.

The most valuable kind of mid-level exception is available to teams that are over the cap but less than $4MM above the tax threshold. Still, clubs deep into the tax, and even those under the cap, have access to less lucrative versions of the mid-level. Here’s a glance at how all three forms of the exception are structured:

For teams with cap room:

  • Called the mini mid-level, or the room exception
  • Maximum two-year contract
  • Maximum 4.5% annual raises
  • First-year salary is worth $2,732,000 for 2014/15

For over-the cap teams:

  • Called the full mid-level, or the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception
  • Maximum four-year contract
  • Maximum 4.5% annual raises
  • First-year salary is worth $5,305,000 for 2014/15
  • Once used, the team cannot surpass the “tax apron” ($4MM above tax line) for the remainder of the season.

For taxpaying teams:

  • Called the mini mid-level, or the taxpayer’s mid-level exception
  • Maximum three-year contract
  • Maximum 4.5% annual raises
  • First-year salary is worth $3,278,000 for 2014/15.

The value of the starting salary in each exception increases by about 3% each season under the current collective bargaining agreement. Here’s the maximum contract a free agent could receive this summer using each of these three forms of mid-level exception:

Room Exception

  • 2014/15: $2,732,000
  • 2015/16: $2,854,940
  • Total: $5,586,940

Non-Taxpayer’s MLE

  • $5,305,000
  • $5,543,725
  • $5,782,450
  • $6,021,175
  • Total: $22,652,350

Taxpayer’s MLE:

  • $3,278,000
  • $3,425,510
  • $3,573,020
  • $10,276,530

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Versions of this post, written by Luke Adams, were initially published on April 24th, 2012 and May 10th, 2013.

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Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback

May 11th, 2014 at 2:04pm CST by Chuck Myron

We value your input on the news we cover here at Hoops Rumors. That’s why we’re passing along some of the best insight from our comments and the Hoops Rumors Facebook page. Share your reaction to and insight on the news and rumors around the league, and you’ll have a chance to see your name here. Check out what readers had to say in previous editions of Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback.

It’s easy to sign up and start commenting on Hoops Rumors. First, read our Commenting Policy. Then, scroll to the bottom of any post, and you’ll see the word “Login” on the right side atop the comments section. Click the word and choose whether you want to comment using a Disqus account or your existing Facebook, Twitter or Google account. If you don’t have a Disqus account and you want to create one, just choose that option and click “Need an account?” at the bottom right of the box that pops up.

The Mavs have their eyes on a couple of Knicks, but reader William McGowan would prefer to see Dallas acquire the less splashy of the two, choosing Tyson Chandler over Carmelo Anthony.

  • I do not want Carmelo on this team. But if we could get Chandler back, that would make me happy again. We never should have let him go. I would love to see Luol Deng as a Maverick. He would be an upgrade over [Shawn] Marion. But I would love to see Marion back as well. We would be set at small forward. We can’t continue to have two guards that can’t defend well. One of them has to go. Though I like [Jose] Calderon, I do believe we should use him as a trade piece. Dallas has a lot of work to do to build a team for the 2014-2015 season. I am excited to see what we do.

News of mutual interest between the Lakers and Chris Bosh sparked a lively discussion with a range of opinions, but John Moore captured the general tenor of the reaction from Lakers fans.

  •  No, no, no! Trading Pau [Gasol] for another kind of Pau is the way I see it. If the Lakers get tied up in another big salary for an aging but still functional player it’s not what I see as a solution.
    A point guard that plays D would be a true asset, but there are no instant cures out there (that I see).

The Warriors made a move that had grown increasingly likely in the past several weeks, firing coach Mark Jackson despite a 51-win regular season that was the team’s best in 22 years. Jackson didn’t get along with Warriors management, and Randolph_Knackstedt sees it as an unjust dismissal that nonetheless presents an opportunity for the ousted coach.

  • Three years as the warriors coach. Each season the warriors have increased scoring and decreased opponents scoring while making it to the playoffs two years in a row. But the Warriors front office doesn’t care because they couldn’t control Jackson like they wanted to. At least Jackson can now coach for an organization that actually appreciates him.

We appreciate everyone who adds to the dialogue at Hoops Rumors, and we look forward to seeing more responses like these from you!

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Prospect Profile: K.J. McDaniels

May 11th, 2014 at 9:50am CST by Eddie Scarito

The expectations for K.J. McDaniels were modest entering his junior season after averaging 10.9 PPG for Clemson in the 2012/13 season. But in 36 games this year McDaniels averaged 17.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 2.8 BPG in 33.7 minutes per game. His slash line was .459/.304/.842. For his career, McDaniels’ numbers were 11.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.9 BPG in 24.3 minutes per contest. His career shooting numbers were .450/.313/.767.

McDaniels is one of the more versatile players in this year’s draft class, but his decision to enter the draft still comes as somewhat of a surprise to some. With the sheer amount of top-tier talent in this year’s draft, especially at the wing position, McDaniels might have had a better chance at becoming a lottery selection next year. It’s difficult to imagine him cracking the top 14 this year, but a team using a late first-round pick might luck into a high-value player who doesn’t project to be a star, but should be able to contribute right away. Current mock drafts project McDaniels as a late first-round pick. Draft Express has him slotted 20th, Bleacher Report has him 22nd, CBSSports.com places him 24th, and NBA Draft.net sees him being taken 35th overall. Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks McDaniels 22nd on his Big Board.

Aaron Brenner of The Post and Courier notes that Clemson head coach Brad Brownell didn’t put any pressure on McDaniels to stay in school, and the coach appreciated everything that McDaniels did for the program. The article quoted Brownell as saying, “At the end of the day, it’s his decision, his family’s decision. He’s the one who has to live with it. We just want him to hopefully be prepared that whatever decision he makes that he’s successful thereafter. He’s given an unbelievable amount to our school and our program over the last three years and I’m really proud of the way he’s handled everything this year. Not just playing on the court, but being a new leader, being a marked man, being an All-ACC guy, handling all the outside distractions and extra people trying to get a hold of him.”

McDaniels ultimately decided that it wasn’t worth the risk of incurring an injury to return to Clemson for his senior year. Of his decision, McDaniels said, “I’m thankful for the opportunity these past three seasons to grow as a player and person at Clemson. None of this would have been possible without the guidance and support of my coaches, teammates and family. This was not an easy decision, but I am excited to take the next step toward fulfilling my lifelong dream of playing in the NBA.”

McDaniels has every tool needed to be an impact starter at the next level, but his offensive game could hold him back. Offensively, he isn’t the most polished player, but his superior athleticism gives him a high upside. He’s extremely dangerous in transition and is a powerful finisher at the rim. McDaniels isn’t a good three-point shooter, connecting on only 30% of his attempts this season. Having an erratic jump shot could severely hamper his offensive production, especially in a more half-court dominated game.

He’s a decent ball-handler, but not strong enough to be a team’s leading play-maker. Avoiding turnovers and improving his off-the-dribble skills will be one of the keys to improving his offensive game in the NBA. His 2.3 turnovers per game against 1.6 assists attests to this deficiency. McDaniels is not a great passer, but he is willing to share the ball. He didn’t play with a wealth of talent around him at Clemson, so it’s difficult to judge him completely on this aspect of the game.

The part of McDaniels’ game that is NBA ready is his defense. McDaniels was named to both the first-team All-ACC and first-team ACC All-Defense squads. He also received the 2014 ACC Defensive Player of the Year award. McDaniels ranked first in the ACC in blocks (100), Defensive Wins Shares (3.1), and second in defensive rating (90.8). For his size he is also a excellent rebounder, which should translate to the next level and improve his positional value.

The 6’6″ small forward is a better shot-blocker than a vast majority of the big men that you’ll find in college basketball. McDaniels’ combination of speed, fundamentals, and athleticism will allow him to defend multiple positions at possibly an elite level in the NBA. His long arms and leaping ability will also allow him to be an effective interior defender. McDaniels’ abilities in this area have some scouts comparing him to Kawhi Leonard, who was also a high value pick late in the first-round.

As a player, I’m very high on McDaniels, and any team snagging him with a pick in the latter part of the first round will receive a high-value, high-energy player who is ready to step in and contribute to a rotation right away. He can play and defend multiple positions, has a high basketball IQ and a very good motor. I don’t see him becoming a superstar player, but if he can improve his offensive game, McDaniels will have a bright future in the pros. Out of the players projected to go late in the first round he will have the greatest opportunity to outperform his draft slot.

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Prospect Profile: Zach LaVine

May 10th, 2014 at 8:13pm CST by Eddie Scarito

UCLA’s Zach LaVine wasn’t among the top 100 prospects entering his freshman season, but he has worked his way up the draft board projections based on his athleticism and upside. This led LaVine to declare for the 2014 NBA Draft despite not being a starter this year. It was most likely a difficult decision for the 6’5″ shooting guard, but ultimately it came down to his future. LaVine disappeared at times on the Bruins bench and was not guaranteed a more prominent role in his sophomore season. LaVine’s father, in an interview with Jack Wang of the Los Angeles Daily News, likened the decision to a breakup: “It’s like a marriage. If it doesn’t work out, you get a divorce. I don’t blame anybody.”

LaVine’s season was primarily defined by his inconsistency. His 18-point, eight-rebound, three-assist outburst against Oregon in late February displayed what he is capable of contributing, but he also had games like the Bruins season-ending loss to the Gators where he logged just five points and two rebounds. That illustrates the maddening inconsistency of LaVine, but his ceiling might make it difficult for teams looking for value in this year’s draft to ignore him. The potential reward with him is very high, but that doesn’t make him a sure thing at the next level.

In 37 games played, LaVine averaged 9.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 0.9 SPG in 24.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .441/.375/.691. These aren’t numbers usually linked to prospective first round draft choices, but with LaVine, all the talk revolves around his athleticism and potential. “Athleticism, size, scoring ability and [being] a combo guard” is what one NBA scout told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv when explaining why LaVine’s name has been so hot in draft circles.

Up to this point, all LaVine has demonstrated is the ability to catch, shoot and dunk. He hasn’t displayed much in the way of advanced offensive skills yet. That isn’t necessarily his fault, since Coach Steve Alford didn’t run many pick-and-rolls or isolation plays LaVine’s way. According to Kenpom’s advanced stats (subscription required), the percentage of possessions LaVine was used in was just 19.3 percent. Seeing how infrequently he was asked to create, it would be unrealistic to expect that LaVine would be ready to significantly contribute to an NBA rotation in his first season.

NBA teams love players who can shoot, and based on LaVine’s numbers, along with his high-flying athleticism, that’s what he looks to be able to provide. But despite having elite quickness and athleticism, LaVine only averaged 1.6 free-throw attempts per game and rarely took the ball to the basket in half court sets. This is a required skill to be an effective scorer in the NBA. With his physical tools it is a part of the game that LaVine should be able to improve on with hard work and adding weight to his 180-pound frame.

The biggest bonus to his game might be his ball-handling ability. LaVine didn’t get many opportunities at UCLA to demonstrate his skill, but when he had the chance, he showed an excellent ability off the dribble. This gives him the label of a combo-guard, but not in the way used to describe a scorer too small to play the 2. If LaVine can show he can handle the ball like a point guard, this would make him a very tough defensive assignment in the NBA.

The player that many scouts compare LaVine to is former Bruin Russell Westbrook. His combination of size, speed, athleticism, and ability to play both guard positions is what draws those references. Westbrook was far from a finished product when he left UCLA, but was further along in his game than LaVine, who could have benefited greatly from a second collegiate season like Westbrook did.

Outside of his offensive inexperience, LaVine is extremely raw defensively as well. UCLA ran a lot of defensive zone schemes that aren’t utilized in the pro game, and observers have noted that LaVine appeared lost when the Bruins would switch to man-to-man defense. Sam Vecenie of Orlando Pinstriped Post wrote, “He [LaVine] just legitimately has no idea where to be and when to help in a man scheme.”

LaVine does have the physical potential to become an effective perimeter defender, with his quickness, athleticism, and long arms. But having the potential and realizing it can be two very different things. Even if LaVine is able to make strides, I believe he’s at least a couple of seasons away from being an adequate NBA level defender and he’ll require some serious time in the D-League to make those improvements.

Whichever team selects LaVine will need to be patient, which is not always something that lottery teams or those picking in the middle of the first-round can afford to be. In current mock drafts he is slotted as a mid-to-late first round choice. NBA Draft.net and CBSSports.com have LaVine going 17th,  Bleacher Report places him 24th, and Draft Express has him going 29th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks LaVine 14th on his Big Board.

I’m a fan of a team taking LaVine in the mid-20s where he could potentially turn into a steal down the line. He has tremendous upside and potential, but he needs a lot of development time. LaVine also needs to add at least 15-20 pounds to his frame to be able to physically compete in the league. With another season at UCLA I could see him entering the discussion as a late lottery pick. Instead, he’s going to have to learn on the job, which will lower his immediate impact and value as a pick. I’m high on LaVine’s athleticism and upside, but he’ll need whatever team that drafts him to show patience in letting him develop as a player.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Zach Randolph

May 10th, 2014 at 12:55pm CST by Cray Allred

Zach Randolph may have spent his final game as a member of the Grizzlies away from the team, serving a surprise suspension for Game 7 against the Thunder. Now Randolph must turn his attention to the the offseason and his player option for the 2014/15 season. His salary is set to drop from $18.2MM to $16.9MM if he picks up the option, a decrease that was ratified despite going against CBA rules per Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com.

Despite shooting under 40% in the playoffs, his inside presence helped Memphis impose its physical style on the Thunder and push the No. 2 seed to the brink of an upset. After missing half of the 2011/12 season due to injury, and scoring well below his career average last year, Randolph returned to form when the Grizzlies desperately needed him to, having lost star center Marc Gasol to injury for a significant chunk of this season. Randolph led Memphis in scoring for the playoffs at 18.2 PPG, and he averaged a double-double in the regular season.

The Raymond Brothers client hasn’t discussed his future with team management, but Randolph and the Grizzlies have mutual interest in him remaining in Memphis for the remainder of his career. Randolph is one of the only great post scorers in a league that has become more perimeter-oriented, even among frontcourt players. The Memphis front office is more driven by advanced stats than most around the NBA, so the continued presence of a player with Randolph’s skill set and age hasn’t always been a foregone conclusion. The Grizzlies denied rumors that they were looking to trade the power forward earlier this season, but Randolph expressed disappointment in the perceived lack of loyalty from the team.

While few teams have a frontcourt scorer as sturdy as Randolph, there isn’t an abundance of teams that seem to be in a position to target the big man. Many clubs with significant cap space are invested in young power forwards, and adding a piece like Randolph could stunt their development. Examples of this include the Bucks and John Henson, the Magic and Tobias Harris, and the Jazz and Derrick Favors. Toronto reportedly showed interest in Randolph this winter, and if the Raptors believe they can contend in the Eastern Conference by building around their core, adding a proven veteran of Randolph’s abilities would make sense. It would probably mean clearing Amir Johnson‘s salary via trade, and Johnson is a productive big on an affordable contract, but pairing Randolph with Jonas Valanciunas would be an intriguing move. The Pelicans were rumored to have light interest in Randolph as well. If New Orleans wasn’t confident in Ryan Anderson‘s return to form following a scary neck injury that cost him most of last season, Randolph could play alongside Anthony Davis.

Randolph could also become a fallback signing for teams that either strike out on their primary targets in free agency or want to offer a one-year deal around the value of Randolph’s option for next season to preserve max money for 2015. The Mavs have pursued a similar strategy in the past, and I could see the Lakers keeping their sights set on 2015 while adding a piece like Randolph in the meantime. It would be tough for Randolph, who turns 33 this summer, to pass on locking in long-term money while his market value is still relatively high, but the right team and the right salary might make him think about it. Randolph mentioned the Lakers earlier this season when he spoke of teams that had shown loyalty, a virtue he hoped the Grizzlies would espouse.

Randolph’s market value is believed to be in the three-year, $30-35MM range. A 13-year veteran who has logged as many bruising minutes as Randolph would seem a risky player to sign for multiple years at over $10MM in annual salary. Al Jefferson, three years Randolph’s junior, inked a three-year, $40.5MM contract last summer. Jefferson has superior offensive prowess at this point, but he’s also a greater liability on the defensive end. The fact that Z-Bo hasn’t built his game on athleticism — Randolph barely jumps when putting up his shot — mitigates some risk of a sudden decline in ability. Randolph relies heavily on strength and craftiness, elements that won’t evaporate overnight.

Randolph’s next contract will likely be his last extended deal as one of the league’s top earners, and it would make sense for him to pursue it sooner rather than later, especially since he’s facing a pay decrease on his option anyway. While Memphis wants to keep Randolph, it will still be interesting to see if the Grizzlies value him as much as they do other players on the market should he decline his option. Randolph came in ninth on our latest Free Agent Power Rankings, but he could find that player pool less crowded once free agency begins. Seven of the players ahead of him on that list can remain with their teams either through option clauses or restricted free agency. If the market dries up and Randolph stands as one of the few premier players available, teams with cap space might be able to pry him away from the city he has thrived in for the last five years.

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