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Hoops Rumors Originals

Bird Rights

April 24th, 2014 at 11:16am CST by Chuck Myron

The Bird exception, named after Larry Bird, is a rule included in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own players. A player who qualifies for the Bird exception, formally referred to as a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, is said to have “Bird rights.”

The most basic way for a player to earn Bird rights is to play for the same team for at least three seasons, either on a multiyear deal or separate one-year contracts. Still, there are other, more complicated criteria. A player retains his Bird rights in the following scenarios:

  • He changes teams via trade, rather than being waived or signing elsewhere as a free agent. For instance, MarShon Brooks is in the third year of his contract. He has been traded three times, from the Nets to the Celtics, the Celtics to the Warriors and the Warriors to the Lakers, but he still has his Bird rights because he hasn’t been waived.
  • He finishes a third season with a team after having only played partial seasons with the club for one or both of the first two years (without signing elsewhere in between).

However, a player sees the clock on his Bird rights reset to zero in the following scenarios:

  • He changes teams via free agency.
  • He is selected in an expansion draft.
  • He is waived and is not claimed on waivers.
  • His rights are renounced by his team.

If a player has earned Bird rights, he is eligible to sign a maximum-salary contract for up to five years with 7.5% annual raises when he becomes a free agent. The maximum salary will vary depending on how long the player has been in the league, but regardless of the amount, a team can exceed the salary cap to complete the deal.

Although the Bird exception allows teams to exceed the cap, a team cannot necessarily use free cap room to sign free agents and then re-sign its own players via Bird rights. A team with a Bird free agent is assigned a “free agent amount” or cap hold worth either 190% of his previous salary (for a player with a below-average salary) or 150% of his previous salary (for an above-average salary), up to the maximum salary amount. For players coming off rookie scale contracts, the amounts of those cap holds are 250% and 200%, respectively.

The Mavericks, for instance, will have a $6.042MM cap hold for Vince Carter on their 2014/15 books — 190% of his $3.18MM salary this season. Dallas could renounce Carter and clear that $6.042MM in cap space, but the Mavs would lose his Bird rights if they did that. That would force them to use either cap room or a different cap exception to follow through on their plan to re-sign him.

Ultimately, the Bird exception was designed to allow teams to keep their best players. The CBA ensures that teams are always able to re-sign them to contracts up to the maximum salary, assuming the player is interested in returning and his team is willing to go over the cap.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Versions of this post were initially published on April 17th, 2012, and May 2, 2013 by Luke Adams.

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Teams With The Most 2014 Draft Picks

April 23rd, 2014 at 2:29pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Sixers were not afraid to employ rookies this season, and they’re in line for another influx of NBA neophytes in 2014/15. Philadelphia will have a pair of first-round picks this year, barring a lucky bounce of a lottery ping-pong ball for the Pelicans, and five second-rounders, giving the Sixers a league-high seven draft choices in 2014.

Whenever a team is holding that many picks, there’s a strong chance it’ll trade one or more of them. The Sixers are in the midst of a rebuilding project, but even so, it’d be difficult for them to find room for seven rookies on next season’s opening-night roster. Likewise, Suns GM Ryan McDonough has spoken on multiple occasions about packaging his team’s slew of first-round picks in a trade. Most teams aren’t in Phoenix’s enviable position and are increasingly reluctant to part with first-round picks, so second-rounders are becoming valuable trade fodder, too.

The final draft order won’t be determined until the May 20th lottery, but you can check out the projected first-round landscape here, and teams are ranked below by the volume of 2014 picks they possess, showing which teams might be looking to deal. There’s a chance the lottery will take a few picks away from some teams and give them to others, so we’ve noted those potential scenarios here. The number of first round picks is in parentheses to the left of the slash, with the number of second-rounders to the right.

Seven picks

  • Sixers (2/5) — There a 4% chance they won’t receive the Pelicans’ first-round pick, which would leave them with six picks.

Four picks

  • Suns (3/1) — There’s a 2% chance they’ll receive the Timberwolves’ first-round pick, which would give them five picks.
  • Timberwolves (1/3) — There’s a 2% chance they’ll have to send their first-round pick to the Suns, which would leave them with three picks.
  • Bucks (1/3)

Three picks

  • Bulls (2/1)
  • Jazz (2/1)
  • Nuggets (1/2)
  • Raptors (1/2)
  • Spurs (1/2)

Two picks

  • Celtics (2/0)
  • Magic (2/0)
  • Thunder (2/0)
  • Bobcats (1/1) — There’s an 18% chance they’ll receive the Pistons’ first-round pick, which would give them three picks.
  • Cavs (1/1)
  • Hawks (1/1)
  • Heat (1/1)
  • Pistons (1/1) — There’s an 18% chance they’ll have to give their first-round pick to the Bobcats, which would leave them with one pick.
  • Rockets (1/1)
  • Mavericks (0/2)

One pick

  • Clippers (1/0)
  • Grizzlies (1/0)
  • Kings (1/0)
  • Lakers (1/0)
  • Pacers (0/1)
  • Wizards (0/1)

Zero picks

  • Pelicans — There’s a 4% chance they’ll get to keep their first-round pick from going to the Sixers, which would give them one pick.
  • Nets
  • Warriors
  • Knicks
  • Trail Blazers
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Hoops Rumors Originals

April 20th, 2014 at 3:40pm CST by Zachary Links

Here’s our look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

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Prospect Profile: Gary Harris

April 20th, 2014 at 12:39pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The upcoming NBA Draft will have almost certainly have the lottery portion dominated by freshman, but teams looking for a solid shooting guard who can do a little bit of everything might find Michigan State’s Gary Harris to be the answer. The 6’4″ sophomore announced he was entering this year’s draft last week. “I expect Gary to be a high pick in the draft, but more importantly, I know that he is well prepared for a long career,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said in a released statement.

During the announcement Harris said, “The last two years have been the best of my life, but it’s time to follow my dream and declare for the NBA Draft. My two seasons at Michigan State have been an amazing experience. I have a lifetime of memories, including some incredible games in some incredible places, NCAA tournaments, and cutting down the nets after a Big Ten Tournament Championship. But most important are the friendships I’ve developed with my teammates. These are bonds that will last forever, especially the guys in my class. I can’t imagine a better group of guys to be around.”

In 35 games this season, Harris averaged 16.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 32.3 minutes per night. His slash line was .429/.352/.810. In two seasons, Harris’ career numbers were 14.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.6 SPG in 31.0 minutes per game. His career slash line was .440/.376/.788.

Harris is currently projected as a late lottery pick. NBA Draft.net projects him being taken eighth in their latest mock draft, CBSSports.com has him going 10th, Bleacher Report has him 11th, and Draft Express slots him 13th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Harris ranked as the 11th best prospect on his “Big Board.”

Harris is a well-rounded player who can do numerous things to help his team win on both ends of the court. He is one of the best offensive prospects in the draft, and a highly proficient scorer on the perimeter, despite the fact he didn’t shoot the ball nearly as well as he was a year ago. After shooting 43% from the three-point line as a freshman, his percentage dropped to 35% this year. Whether or not Harris can make the shots from deep more consistently in the NBA is a question that scouts are asking. One plus is that his high and quick release will not need much adjustment as he moves to playing against elite athletes in the NBA.

While most scouts thought of Harris as just a shooter after his freshman campaign, he worked hard in the weight room to develop his body and put on muscle. This bulk helps him to attack the rim and finish off the bounce and not be rattled by larger defenders in the paint. Harris is also able to create for himself with a quick two-dribble attack and is excellent at the catch-and-shoot game. He is also very solid coming off screens and is skilled at knowing the proper time to come off them for a jump shot, or drive to the rim.

Harris is a tenacious defensive player who has a good chance to translate his gifts to the professional level sooner than other 2014 first round prospects. His game is also more mature than his age as he will be only 19 on draft day. He ranked fourth in the Big Ten in steals, and eighth in defensive wins shares with 2.0. Harris is both disruptive and consistent enough on the defensive end that other teams have to account for him at all times.

One concern for Harris is his size. He is considered a small two guard at the next level, and could be taken advantage of by bigger, stronger, guards. He still has time to develop and fill out his frame, so he could increase his overall strength, but the height could be an issue if he’s a starter. Coming off the bench as a sixth man could offset his disadvantage and maximize his productivity.

Some scouts have opined that it’s “unrealistic” to think he’ll be a high-impact player right away, but he is a player without a glaring weakness. NBA executives like his size, strength, athleticism, scoring ability, defense and character. The biggest plus about Harris is that GMs already know what type of player he is, as well as what position he’ll play. He isn’t an elite athlete like a few of the top prospects in this year’s class, but he is a solid, steady player who will contribute in every facet of the game.

His upside and game have been compared to O.J. Mayo and J.R. Smith, but with a more solid character, and he’s regarded as much more coachable. Harris isn’t a player who will blow teams away during pre-draft workouts, but on film the nuances of his game will shine. He is almost certain to be taken in the lottery, and I believe he will become a solid pro, but not a No. 1 scoring option in the NBA. He’s a great value pick in the 10-15 range.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Luol Deng

April 18th, 2014 at 12:32pm CST by Chuck Myron

Luol Deng is eighth in the latest version of our 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, but there’s a strong chance that he’ll be the most valuable free agent changing teams. It seems that there’s at least a better shot of that happening than there is of Deng re-signing in Cleveland, given the rumors that have surrounded him since the Cavs brought him in via trade on January 7th. Cleveland was 19-21 with Deng in the lineup, and while that’s better than the team’s record without him, his arrival didn’t exactly bring about drastic change to a moribund Cavs franchise. Deng began to privately express displeasure with the Cavs shortly after the trade, and a dispatch from last month indicated that Deng was simply counting the days until he could leave.

Deng took a much more positive tone in public, saying shortly after the trade deadline that he was pleased with the direction of the franchise. Less than a week after Cleveland acquired him, he expressed a willingness to sign an extension and referred to the Cavs as an “amazing organization.” It wouldn’t be in character for Deng, the winner of season’s J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award and a tireless worker in his days with the Bulls, to lash out or undermine his team in on-the-record statements. Still, it appears he holds some misgivings about the Cavs, given the reports that have leaked, and it’s telling that his most forthcoming statements about his future came months ago. Extension chatter has vanished, too.

The Cavs were in talks with several teams about flipping Deng at the deadline, a sign that the club isn’t confident about its chances to keep the small forward, who turned 29 on Wednesday. The Wizards, Pistons, Pacers, Kings, Warriors and Mavs were among the teams reportedly in the conversation, though the Cavs were apparently merely gauging the market and never closed in on a deal. Still, some teams seemed reluctant to take on a player who can walk away this summer, reflecting a greater sentiment of uncertainty over just where Deng is headed in the offseason.

The Lakers and Suns have interest, and the Mavs, Celtics, Magic and Bobcats are reportedly likely suitors as well. Deng, when asked, didn’t rule out the notion of returning to the Bulls, though that seems a long shot. Agent Herb Rudoy has publicly pointed to Andre Iguodala‘s four-year, $48MM deal with the Warriors as analogous to Deng’s value, and some believe Rudoy will seek annual salaries greater than the $13.5MM Josh Smith makes. Deng was upset with the assertion that he sought an extension of $15MM a year from the Bulls before Chicago traded him, so it would be surprising if Rudoy attempted to go that high. Still, Deng scoffed at Chicago’s final offer of three years at $10MM each, so he’ll almost certainly seek more than that in free agency.

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft put up numbers this season that were similar to the ones he had the past two years, when he was an All-Star with the Bulls, though much of that is a product of strong performance in the months leading up to the trade. He was scoring 19.0 points and dishing out 3.7 assists per game in Chicago this season, which would have been career highs in spite of him having played fewer minutes than he ever had under Tom Thibodeau. Those minutes took an even sharper decline once he arrived in Cleveland, down to his lowest rate in six years, and his production suffered accordingly. Some of that could simply be a regression to the mean after his hot start, but Deng’s half-season with the Cavs hasn’t been memorable.

Deng’s most valuable contributions are usually on defense, and indeed the Cavs were a better defensive team with him on the floor, giving up 1.1 fewer points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. He didn’t revolutionize the Cavs defense, which finished tied with the Magic for the 13th most points per 100 possessions allowed, but drastic improvement was probably too much to ask, considering the shortcomings of the rest of the team’s starting unit.

His half-season as a Cavalier probably didn’t hurt his value, since he had such a strong start with the Bulls that his performance essentially evened out. Some teams may worry that Deng was a product of an effective system in Chicago, and that he’d more closely resemble the Cleveland version of himself on most NBA teams, but Thibodeau, for all his accomplishments as a coach, is no offensive genius, and Deng’s defense has held steady.

The shock of a midseason trade and the turmoil in Cleveland, where GM Chris Grant lost his job just weeks after acquiring Deng, probably didn’t help him play his best. Injuries to his back, ankle and Achilles tendon all forced him to miss time, which helps explain his offensive drop-off, too. Perhaps the ailments signal that his body is breaking down as he nears 30, after having led the league in minutes per game the past two seasons, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of his suitors insist on non-guaranteed money at the back end of his deal.

Deng is no superstar, and he won’t ask to be paid like one. He’s been a valuable starter for eight playoff teams in his 10 seasons, and he became an All-Defensive Second Team selection under Thibodeau’s guidance in 2011/12. He’s the sort of player who can help an established team that’s ready to start contending, and he’d be a better fit with teams like the Mavs, Wizards and Suns than the Lakers, Magic, or any other team with cap flexibility but without a semblance of a playoffs-worthy core. Deng might have to settle for salaries closer to Iguodala’s than Smith’s to fit into the sort of ascendant team that’s ideal for him, but that might be the best way for him to sustain his value for his next contract, particularly if his new coach watches his minutes. His signing won’t be July’s leading story, but it might make a significant difference come the following June.

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Draft Order Situations To Watch Tonight

April 16th, 2014 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

There are 15 games on the NBA schedule tonight, and only one of them, the contest between the Hawks and Bucks, won’t have any bearing on the 2014 draft order. With the help of our Reverse Standings, I’ve sketched out what’s at stake in each matchup.

Bulls at Bobcats
Charlotte owes its first-rounder to Chicago, so the outcome of tonight’s game could be doubly meaningful for the Bulls. A Chicago win would ensure the Bulls of the No. 16 pick via Charlotte, but it would drop Chicago’s own pick as low as No. 21. If Charlotte wins, the pick it sends to the Bulls might fall to 17th, while the Bulls’ own pick might go as high as No. 19.

Pacers at Magic
The Magic would seal the third-best lottery position with a loss, but a win might drop them to fourth. The Pacers’ pick belongs to the Suns, who’d be assured of No. 27 with an Indiana loss. Phoenix might wind up with No. 26 if the Pacers win.

Mavericks at Grizzlies
Dallas will have a chance to keep its first-round pick if it loses, but only if the Raptors and Bulls both win and the Mavs win a series of coin flips to determine who picks 19th. Otherwise, the selection goes to the Thunder, who might wind up picking as high as 20th if the Mavs lose and as low as 23rd if the Mavs win. The Grizzlies’ pick might go as high as No. 19 with a loss and as low as No. 23 with a win.

Jazz at Timberwolves
The Jazz can have, at best, the third-best chance of winning the lottery with a loss, or, at worst, the fifth best with a win. The Timberwolves are locked into the 13th position for the lottery.

Rockets at Pelicans
Houston might pick as high as 24th with a loss and as low as 27th with a win. New Orleans, which owes its first-rounder to the Sixers unless it wins one of the top three picks in the lottery, will be locked into the 10th lottery position with a win, but the Pelicans might climb into the ninth lottery position with a loss.

Pistons at Thunder
Detroit, which owes Charlotte its pick if it doesn’t wind up eighth or better, will be locked into the eighth lottery position with a win, but the Pistons might climb to seventh if they lose. The Thunder will pick 29th if they win, but they might pick 27th if they lose.

Lakers at Spurs
The Lakers will have the sixth lottery position if they win, but they might move into fifth with a loss. San Antonio is locked into the final pick of the first round.

Wizards at Celtics
Washington owes its selection to the Suns, who’ll pick as high as 16th with a Wizards loss and as low as 18th with a Wizards win. The Celtics might have a lottery position as high as fourth with a loss and as low as sixth with a win.

Nets at Cavaliers
Brooklyn’s pick goes to the Celtics, who’ll pick 18th if the Nets win, though the pick might go to No. 17 if the Nets lose. The Cavs can lock up the ninth lottery position with a loss, but a win could drop them to 10th.

Sixers at Heat
Miami might pick as high as 24th with a loss and as low as 27th with a win. Philadelphia is locked in to the second-best lottery position.

Raptors at Knicks
The Raptors might pick as high as 19th if they lose and as low as 22nd if they win. The Knicks owe their pick to the Nuggets, who in turn owe the Magic the least favorable of the Knicks’ pick and their own pick. Denver and New York are tied, but one of them will finish in the 11th lottery position and the other will finish in the 12th lottery position regardless of tonight’s outcomes.

Clippers at Trail Blazers
The Clippers will pick 28th if they win, but they might drop to 29th if they lose. The Blazers owe their pick to the Bobcats, who’ll pick 24th if Portland wins, but might pick as low as 26th if Portland loses.

Suns at Kings
The Suns are locked into the 14th lottery position. The Kings will have the seventh lottery position if they lose, but they might drop to eighth if they win.

Warriors at Nuggets
The Warriors owe their pick to the Jazz, who’ll pick 23rd if Golden State wins and might pick as high as 21st if Golden State loses. The Nuggets owe the least favorable of their own pick and the Knicks’ pick to the Magic. Denver and New York are tied, but one of them will finish in the 11th lottery position and the other will finish in the 12th lottery position regardless of tonight’s outcomes.

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Prospect Profile: T.J. Warren

April 13th, 2014 at 6:58pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The announcement had been expected since the team lost its second-round tournament game, and last Tuesday it became official when North Carolina State’s T.J. Warren declared for the 2014 NBA Draft. The announcement was made by the university. “It’s been a fun ride the last few years. I’ve had some great experiences and now I feel I’m ready to play at the next level,” Warren said in a released statement. “Playing in the NBA has been a lifelong dream of mine and playing at NC State has prepared me well to achieve my dream.”

The Wolfpack sophomore finished the 2013/14 regular season with back-to-back 40-plus scoring nights, and in the NCAA tournament Warren averaged 26.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 3.0 SPG. In 35 total games this season, Warren averaged 24.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 35.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .525/.267/.690. For his career Warren averaged 18.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG in 31.2 minutes per contest. His career slash line is .555/.315/.654.

Warren’s value is as an offensive threat. He can score in a variety of ways, and many of his skills should translate to the NBA. Despite his 24.9 PPG and ACC Player of the Year honors, Warren doesn’t project as an NBA superstar. He also won’t be a dynamic shot-creator or a No. 1 scoring option, but can still be a productive pro. I see Warren providing Shane Battier or John Salmons level numbers on the right team, but he’s not a number one option.

Warren is a highly unconventional player, and is quite a gifted scorer. He moves off the ball exceptionally well, and finds gaps instinctually in opposing defenses, and can score in a variety of ways. While not a traditional one-on-one player (most of his isolation plays come from the elbow or short corner), he’s extremely tough to defend because of the quality of his mid-range game and how many different release points he has on his shots. Jeff Benedict of SI.com said, “So many of Warren’s baskets this season have come after he’s used off-the-ball screens to get himself open. When moving without the ball, Warren is like a gun fighter who always has his hand on the trigger. Any sign of the slightest opening and Warren fires. Especially when he’s within 15 feet of the basket.”

He also displays terrific footwork, an extremely soft touch and has a knack for going glass. Warren is also extremely effective close the basket, making 69% of his non-floater attempts around the rim, which is also first among the Top-100 ranked prospects. Warren has also taken the third highest amount of runners and floaters in all of college basketball this season according to Synergy Sports Technology, hitting over 50% of these attempts, which is first among the Top-100 prospects.

Warren’s outside shooting may be suspect from NBA long range distance. He has shown some issues with his shooting stroke, and only connected on 26.7% of his threes last season. A long, low dip has been observed in his shooting motion, and he’s a bit “chicken-winged” when he raises up to deliver the ball. If he fails to refine these deficiencies, he won’t be able to stretch opposing defenses at the professional level. Continued inability to regularly connect from beyond the arc would end his chances of being a legitimate rotational weapon at the pro level. You can’t play the three or be a small four in the NBA unless you can shoot with real range and space the floor.

If Warren cannot find an effective role in the NBA, he may struggle to maintain substantial minutes which would lower his production and value. The positive view is that he wouldn’t require a whole lot of touches to put up points, especially when working in transition and away from the ball. As a third or fourth scoring option, he could score double digits with only eight or nine shot attempts per night. Warren could also operate well as a facilitator if he’s able to draw defenses in, because he’s demonstrated that he’s a capable if not always willing passer while at N.C. State.

His main weakness is that he doesn’t have a defined position in the NBA. Warren lacks athleticism at the wing, and he’s small for a post player and has short arms. Regardless of what position he plays he’s going to be at an athletic disadvantage due to poor lateral quickness and being only an average athlete.

Warren was primarily tasked with guarding power forwards at NC State, and will likely see more time on the perimeter defensively in the NBA, which poses another set of questions he’ll have to answer in his pre-draft workouts. Warren could have a lot of trouble guarding swingmen in the NBA according to Draft Express video analyst Mike Schmitz, whose scouting report stated, “Not a great on-ball defender…Not all that quick laterally…A bit of a ‘tweener on defense. Not strong enough for power forwards. Must be able to check NBA small forwards if he wants to be a 3.”

Warren’s tweener skills make his NBA value a bit difficult to predict. Most mock drafts have him as a mid-to-late first round pick. Warren currently ranks 18th in Draft Express‘ latest,  28th in CBSSports.com‘s, NBA Draft.net has him ranked 20th, Bleacher Report has Warren 23rd, and he ranks 32nd on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

The one facet that Warren has to sell teams on is his ability as a scorer. Whether he can defend well enough to stay on the court long enough to get his shots in will be a big question mark. Warren will also need to make adjustments and work towards improving his outside shot. The ceiling on his game has been compared to that of Michael Beasley and Trevor Ariza. Based on his college production and taking into account his limitations, Warren could make for a good value pick late in the first round, and would make a nice complementary piece on a playoff team. I wouldn’t take him in the lottery though, especially when players with higher upsides will still be on the board.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

April 13th, 2014 at 3:33pm CST by Zachary Links

A look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors team this week..

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Prospect Profile: Rodney Hood

April 12th, 2014 at 9:22pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Heading into the 2013/14 college basketball season, most of the discussions about Duke players and the 2014 NBA Draft revolved around Jabari Parker, and deservedly so. But Rodney Hood also began the year as a projected top-10 pick, but has moved down in the rankings due to the unexpected emergence of other players and some of his limitations on the defensive end.

But Hood apparently decided one year in Durham was enough and was rumored to be entering the 2014 draft. He is ranked 25th in the latest mock by Draft Express,  while NBA Draft.net has him 11th, and CBSSports.com ranks him 13th. Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Hood currently ranked 16th on his Big Board.

The Mississippi State transfer entered the season as a player regarded to have a great outside shot, a good ability to take the ball to the rim, and no major offensive weaknesses that would keep him from being an NBA player. He didn’t do anything to dispel these notions. In 35 games Hood averaged 16.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.1 APG while playing 32.9 minutes per game. His slash line was .464/.420/.807. Hood’s numbers his freshman year at Mississippi State were 10.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.0 APG in 32.8 minutes a night.

Hood shares many of the traits that have attracted NBA teams to Parker’s game. He has shown himself to be a versatile player with excellent length, and good athleticism. He is also effective out in transition, able to finish at the rim, can beat defenders off the dribble, and can be very effective from behind the three-point line.

He ranked eighth in the ACC in 3-point field goals made, and sixth in total field goals made. Hood ranked first overall in effective field goal percentage with .550. His overall field goal percentage of .464 was good for fourth in the ACC, and his offensive win shares of 3.7 was good for third in the conference. Fine numbers for playing on a team as talented as Duke.

There aren’t a bunch of concerns about Hood’s offensive game, but there are a few question marks. Hood hardly ever goes to his right and this could become an issue at the next level. Teams will force him to use his right hand and it hasn’t been seen if he can finish going that way. The other unknown is Hood hasn’t been viewed as a play maker. While at Mississippi State he was strictly a catch and shoot player, but at Duke he has demonstrated a little more variety to his game. To be an effective scorer in the NBA though, Hood will have to show more of an ability to create his own shot. He also still needs to work more on passing to the open man instead of forcing up bad shots.

Though he has worked on his body, Hood has a slight frame and needs to add upper body strength, which he’ll need to play against NBA small forwards. He stands 6’8″, but is a slim 215 pounds. The majority of his offense comes as a shooter, because his lack of strength makes him hesitant to drive. Hood is also not a great rebounder, which again points to a lack of strength. He doesn’t have a frame made to carry bulk, so it will be a challenge for him to correct this.

Hood’s biggest weakness as an NBA prospect revolves around his defense, as he has shown questionable intensity on this end of the floor, rarely getting into an actual stance and frequently being knocked off balance and taken advantage of off the dribble due to his lack of strength. His relatively short arms don’t help, which may be reflected in his inability to generate steals (0.7 SPG), blocks (0.3 BPG) or rebounds (3.9 RPG), all of which rank among the worst rates in the draft at his position. According to Draft Express Hood has decent lateral quickness, so he could end up becoming at least adequate in this area, but he’ll have to improve his motor and hustle quite a bit and also get stronger and tougher, as he allows himself to get pushed around with minimal resistance more than he should.

It is all but certain that if Hood makes the jump to the NBA, the interest will be there. He will be a first-round pick and possibly crack the lottery, so it’s difficult to fault him for turning pro. But if Hood elected to come back to Duke this would give scouts the chance to see how he performs when he isn’t benefiting from playing alongside Parker, who is arguably the best player in college basketball. Hood could also use another year under coach Mike Krzyzewski to raise his overall basketball I.Q.. This could set him up to be an early lottery pick in 2015.

The temptation will probably prove too great for Hood. There is always a demand for shooters in the league, and he certainly has a sweet stroke from downtown. His offensive game reminds me of Robert Horry‘s, and as a prospect, his ceiling has been compared to Rashard Lewis‘. My prediction is that he might sneak into the end of the lottery, but more than likely falls into the 16-24 range, where he could end up being a value pick. His limitations will hold him back from stardom, but he has the offensive tools to be a valuable role player in the NBA.

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Freshmen Outnumbered In Recent NBA Drafts

April 11th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

The perception inherent in commissioner Adam Silver’s rhetoric about his desire to raise the NBA’s minimum age is that the draft is overrun with college freshmen. One-and-dones nonetheless represent only 20.7% of the first-round picks from the last five seasons. Juniors outnumbered all other classes during that span, meaning a significant portion of first-round picks entered the league more than halfway through college.

Each college class represents between 16.7% and 24% of the first-rounders in the last five years, indicating balance throughout the collegians. The sample size is somewhat limited, and it doesn’t count players picked in the second round or who go undrafted, but it reflects the most current trends in the NBA, and shows that NBA teams aren’t choosing to load their benches with talent just a year removed from high school.

Here’s how the past five years break down by class:

2013

  • Freshmen: 6
  • Sophomores: 7
  • Juniors: 7
  • Seniors: 3
  • International: 7

2012

  • Freshmen: 8
  • Sophomores: 11
  • Juniors: 6
  • Seniors: 4
  • International: 1

2011

  • Freshmen: 6
  • Sophomores: 4
  • Juniors: 8
  • Seniors: 7
  • International: 5

2010

  • Freshmen: 7
  • Sophomores: 8
  • Juniors: 9
  • Seniors: 5
  • International: 1

2009

  • Freshmen: 4
  • Sophomores: 6
  • Juniors: 8
  • Seniors: 6
  • International: 6

Five-year totals

  • Freshmen: 31
  • Sophomores: 36
  • Juniors: 38
  • Seniors: 25
  • International: 20
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