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Players With Early 2014/15 Guarantee Dates

April 11th, 2014 at 2:02pm CST by Chuck Myron

Most teams have the benefit of waiting until the draft and free agency to start making decisions about what to do with their rosters for next season. The Nuggets don’t have such a luxury with Quincy Miller.

His contract dictates that his salary for next season becomes partially guaranteed for $150K if he isn’t waived on or before the date that falls seven days after the team’s final game, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports. The Nuggets aren’t headed to the playoffs, so that means the team has to either waive him by the end of the day on April 23rd or take a cap hit next season for a player who’s seen action in just 56 games since Denver picked him 38th overall two years ago. Denver recently moved Miller into the starting lineup, knowing that the time to evaluate him is running perilously short.

Several other players on non-guaranteed contracts for next season have guarantee dates that come up before July. Almost all of their guarantee dates are on June 30th, four days after the draft. That suggests that some of the players could find themselves in trades around draft time, given their value to teams looking to clear cap space for next season. The early guarantee dates put a little extra pressure on GMs, who can’t wait until the free agent landscape starts taking shape to decide on these players.

Here’s a complete list of players who have 2014/15 guarantee dates that come up before the books close on the 2013/14 season. The 2014/15 salaries are currently non-guaranteed, unless otherwise noted.

  • April 23rd: Quincy Miller, Nuggets — Becomes partially guaranteed for $150K
  • June 28th: Andre Miller, Wizards — Already $2MM guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $4,625MM
  • June 29th: Tyler Hansbrough, Raptors — Already $1MM guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $3,326,235
  • June 30th: Jamal Crawford, Clippers — Already $1.5MM guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $5.45MM
  • June 30th: Jeffery Taylor, Bobcats — Becomes fully guaranteed for $915,243
  • June 30th: Kosta Koufos, Grizzlies — Already $500K guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $3MM
  • June 30th: James Anderson, Sixers — Becomes fully guaranteed for $981,084
  • June 30th: Tony Parker, Spurs — Already $3.5MM guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $12.5MM
  • June 30th: Austin Daye, Spurs — Already $250K guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $1,063,384
  • June 30th: John Salmons, Raptors — Already $1MM guaranteed; becomes fully guaranteed for $7MM

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Gordon Hayward

April 10th, 2014 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Gordon Hayward has had no choice but to step into a leading role for the Jazz this season. Utah cleaned house this past summer, allowing Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams and others to leave via free agency, and the team used the cap space to absorb Golden State’s toxic contracts in exchange for two first-round picks and three second-rounders. It was a clear indication that the Jazz are looking down the road, particularly since only one of those picks comes Utah’s way anytime before 2016. The Jazz ensured Derrick Favors would be a part of their future, inking him to a four-year, $48MM extension before the deadline to do so in October. Utah didn’t do the same with Hayward, a fellow 2010 draftee, setting him up for restricted free agency this summer, when he’ll be one of the top 10 players available.

Just how available the 24-year-old will be remains to be seen, since the Jazz have the power to match any other team’s offer and Hayward has said that signing a new deal to stay in Utah is his preference. The comments coming from Hayward, agent Mark Bartelstein and Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey in the wake of their failure to reach an extension deal were universally rosy. Lindsey expressed his admiration for Hayward and Bartelstein, who heaped similar praise on the Jazz. All of the three will surely look out for themselves this summer, but without any reports of private resentment behind their public statements, it seems as though the working relationship between the three is fully functional, at the very least.

The Jazz aren’t the only ones signing Hayward’s praises. Clippers coach Doc Rivers, who doubles as the team’s primary front office decision-maker, said this past autumn that he has a “man-crush” on the former Butler star. The Celtics employ Hayward’s college coach, Brad Stevens, and they showed interest in trading for the versatile swingman before the trade deadline. Many in the league have seen Boston as a strong candidate to pursue Hayward this summer. One NBA GM told Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher before the October extension deadline that “the Jazz had better lock up Hayward,” a signal that there would be leaguewide interest this summer. League executives told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News in February that they generally feel as though the Jazz plan on re-signing him unless they wind up drafting a marquee small forward, in which case they believe that Utah will consider sign-and-trade possibilities.

It’s no secret that the Jazz covet combo forward Jabari Parker, a Mormon who would have inherent popular appeal in Utah, and small forward Andrew Wiggins looms as a possible draft pick for the Jazz, too. Still, Utah has started three small forwards for much of the season, grouping Hayward, Marvin Williams and Richard Jefferson together. Parker could slide in at power forward, and Wiggins, a strong defender, could cover the opposing team’s most potent offensive wing player, allowing the team to hide Hayward. The Jazz give up fewer points per possession when Hayward isn’t playing this season, per NBA.com, and that’s been true three out of the four years he’s been in the league.

Hayward nonetheless contributes in a multitude of other ways. He’s one of only five players in the league to average more than 15 points, five rebounds and five assists per game this season, as Basketball-Reference shows. The others are Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Michael Carter-Williams, putting Hayward in heady company. The opportunity to play outsized roles on teams with poor records surely has to do with the inclusion of Hayward and Carter-Williams on this list, but it nonetheless suggests Hayward’s wide-ranging value to the Jazz.

Hayward and Bartelstein apparently never asked for a maximum-salary extension from Utah, though they and the team were reportedly in talks for a deal worth more than what Favors received. Assuming the team was and remains willing to exceed $12MM salaries, and that Hayward and Bartelstein are still willing to accept less than the max, it would make for a small window of negotiation between $12MM and roughly $14MM. I’d be surprised if they couldn’t get a deal done, though there are a lot of “ifs” in that scenario.

The Jazz have no shortage of cap flexibility in the years ahead, with about $27MM in commitments for next season and only Favors under contract after that. Enes Kanter and Alec Burks will be extension-eligible this summer, but neither is likely to command the same sort of money that Hayward and Favors are about to make, and Utah should be able to keep all four if it wishes. Retaining Trey Burke and this year’s first-rounders might become an issue down the line, but Burke’s second contract would only overlap with the last season of Favors’ deal, so it shouldn’t be that much of a concern at this point.

Hayward is clearly a hot commodity around the league, but it would be a surprising about-face if he doesn’t wind up back with the Jazz, who hold most of the leverage with their right to match offers. Even if they didn’t, Hayward seems to feel comfortable in Salt Lake City and is giving every indication he intends to stay there for years to come.

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Teams With Open Roster Spots

April 10th, 2014 at 10:30am CST by Chuck Myron

We’ve been keeping track of the number of players each team has on its roster all season long, and we’ve featured teams with open roster spots at key junctures, doing so at the start of the season and before the trade deadline. With the end of the regular season less than a week away and the playoffs about to start for 16 teams, we’ll follow up with another look at clubs that have the most flexibility to make a signing.

A team with a full 15-man roster can still make a move, of course, but unless one of their players is on a 10-day contract that’s about to run out, it would entail waiving a fully guaranteed contract. There’s little consequence in waiving a guaranteed contract that runs only through 2013/14 at this point, since this season is almost over, but chances are that the players who are on rosters now will continue to be there.

Only three teams ended up without 15 players on their rosters at the end of last season, and none of them were playoff teams, so there’s a fair chance that the clubs below will be making additions in the next few days. Here’s the list of teams with fewer than 15 players:

The following teams have 10-day contracts that are set to expire before the end of the season, creating an open roster spot:

  • 76ers — Philadelphia has two 10-day contracts, though their 10-day deal with Adonis Thomas runs through the final day of the regular season.
  • Spurs
  • Bucks
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Prospect Profile: Joel Embiid

April 6th, 2014 at 6:21pm CST by Zachary Links

This wasn’t the year that Kansas had envisioned for themselves at the outset and it certainly wasn’t the season that Joel Embiid had hoped for.  At least, it’s not how he wanted it to end.  The 7-foot center saw his draft stock steadily rise throughout the year but the back injury he suffered earlier this year might eliminate him from contention for the first overall pick.  Out of action since March 1st, the big man is now unsure of whether he will enter the June draft at all.

If Embiid decides to go pro, he’ll go through an medical exam that is stringent even by NBA Draft standards.  He’ll also have to go in with absolute confidence in his ability to perform in workouts.  Embiid could probably keep away from live competition and still land in the top three, but he’ll at least have to audition for teams and show that his mobility is still there.

In a season that was supposed to be all about teammate Andrew Wiggins, Embiid averaged 11.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in 23.1 minutes per game.  While the preordained No. 1 overall pick in the draft failed to display a killer instinct at crucial times throughout the year, Embiid likely made scouts drool with his athletic ability.  He could probably stand to add some weight to his 250 pound frame, but the 7-footer boasts a 7’5″ wingspan that allows him to disrupt any offense he goes up against.

On the other side of the ball, Embiid’s agility allows him to move quite well in transition for easy buckets.  Meanwhile, in the halfcourt set, Embiid probably offers more low post ability than your average college big man.  He can also convert from mid-range, making him a tough assignment for any center.

For all of the praise that Embiid received throughout his freshman campaign, no one has accused him of being a polished product.  The 20-year-old came off of the bench for the first eight games of the KU season and while he took off like a rocket ship from that point, it’s clear that he still has a long way to go.  In any given draft, you’ll find that the top prospects available were veterans of the AAU circuit with an eye on the NBA dating back to middle school.  In Embiid’s case, the Cameroonian has only been playing hoops since 2011.  That should mean a high ceiling for the Jayhawk, but it could also signal some rough patches early on in his NBA career.

Will Embiid ultimately enter the draft?  Back in January, he confessed that he wasn’t sure if he was quite ready to make the jump and he sounds just as conflicted today.  However, as Marcus Smart has reminded all of us, staying in school can be a risky and somewhat regrettable move.  Sometimes life offers us opportunities before we’re actually ready for them and, usually, you can’t put them on hold.  Embiid may not feel like he’s ready, but the only logical choice for him is to dive into the deep end and become a top pick while it’s still a lock.  Returning for his sophomore season may be the more comfortable option, but it’s not the wise one.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

April 6th, 2014 at 3:50pm CST by Zachary Links

Here’s a look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

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Prospect Profile: Kyle Anderson

April 6th, 2014 at 10:00am CST by Eddie Scarito

UCLA’s Kyle Anderson has to be considered one of the tougher prospects to accurately gauge as a draft prospect, as well predict what position he will actually play at the professional level. Anderson ran the point in high school, where he was a national standout and a McDonald’s All-American, but UCLA played him at the wing in his first year, alongside veteran point guard Larry Drew II, who averaged 35 minutes a game.

Anderson wasn’t overly impressive during that first season. He lacked the quickness and scoring repertoire to really generate much offense on his own, and without an effective outside shot, he became more of a passing specialist than a scorer or playmaker.

Kyle Anderson Sr., a high school basketball coach in New Jersey, had spent years molding his son into a point guard. So he was upset when coach Bob Hurley Sr. used Anderson as a shooting guard at St. Anthony High in Jersey City. “I was offended by that,” Anderson Sr. said, and continued to be upset when former UCLA coach Ben Howland did the same thing last season.

But then out went Howland, and in came Steve Alford, and with him came a move back to the point for Anderson. Instead of seeing a player who was too slow or a shooting guard playing out of position, Alford saw something unorthodox but special. Alford said, “He’s very unique. A 6’9″ point guard that facilitates the way he can. He’s a nightmare to match up with.”

Anderson quickly proved his value at the position, and was selected as one of six finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, presented annually to the nation’s top point guard. He also earned all-Pac-12 honors for his efforts. In 36 games Anderson averaged 14.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.5 APG, and 1.8 SPG while playing 33.2 minutes per game. His slash line is .480/.483/.737. His career numbers are 12.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.8 SPG in 31.6 minutes a night. His career slash line is .452/.375/.736.

Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com writes that Anderson is unique, and has no match in college basketball. Norlander stated in his article, “Standing 6-feet-9 and playing point guard — and doing it well — he’s the closest thing to Magic Johnson since Magic Johnson. No, he’s not the next Magic Johnson, nor is he approaching Magic Johnson. But a player so tall, lengthy and commanding never gets trusted to run an offense in contemporary college hoops. ”

On KenPom.com (subscription required), the per-possession player stats are tracked and ranked in 15 different categories. Players whose stats fall in roughly the top 10 percentile among players in each category are highlighted in yellow. Anderson’s stat line is yellow in 11 out of the 15. Pretty impressive for a relatively unheralded player.

It’s metrics like that, plus his intriguing size and versatility that has taken him from being just another college prospect and now positioned him as a first-round, and possible late-lottery selection. The scouts are quite divided on where Anderson will end up being taken. NBA Draft.net has him going as high as fifth. Draft Express.com has him going 19th, while both Bleacher Report and CBSSports.com have Anderson being taken 24th. He currently sits 23rd on Chad Ford of ESPN.com’s Big Board.

The biggest knock on Anderson is his speed. His nickname is “Slow-Mo,” and being slower is a major concern, especially when you consider the speed at which the point guard position, or any position, is traditionally played at in the NBA. The argument against Anderson actually starts at the defensive end. With below-average lateral quickness, he won’t have an easy time guarding opposing point guards, and without much strength, athleticism or explosiveness, he’d be open to exploitation as a wing defender. There really isn‘t a defensive position that can hide his weaknesses. Anderson might be a versatile threat on offense, but he’s a tweener on defense.

In college, Anderson was able to use his size and basketball IQ to his advantage. He ranked ninth in the Pac-12 with a defensive rating of 95.4, and his defensive win shares of 206 was good for sixth in the league. Anderson was third in steals with 1.8 per game, and also ranked first in total defensive rebounds with 270. He has the ability and desire to be productive on the defensive end, but whether or not his lack of elite level athleticism will hamper him at the next level remains to be seen.

Offensively, scouts wonder if his lack of breakdown burst will prevent him from creating his own shots or getting to his spots, both as a point guard or a small forward. Despite the improvements he made to his jump shot, it’s still not a reliable weapon. Anderson made less than one three-pointer a game, and he doesn’t have the most confident release, which dampens hope that he can become a scoring threat from outside. An NBA scout said, “I honestly don’t see him lasting more than a few years in the league, though I’ve talked to other scouts that really like him. I just think his offense will take a step back once he gets to the NBA, and his inability to defend is really going to hurt him.”

As with any point guard, his true value will be measured in how well he runs an offense. Anderson is a very strong playmaker. He is very good at finding people in transition, he throws an accurate lob pass, and is effective at throwing outlet passes to facilitate fast breaks. Anderson is also good at recognizing the open man and setting up his shooters. As a ball handler though, he was prone to turnovers, averaging 3.1 per game this year. He was especially vulnerable to being stripped when driving to the basket. More experience running the point could correct these tendencies, but it is something to be wary of.

The final verdict on Kyle Anderson is a complicated one. Natural point guards of his size don’t come along very often, so this alone makes him an intriguing candidate. His lack of speed and athleticism is an issue, especially in the NBA where guards seemingly get faster every year. Anderson has the ability to play multiple positions, which could make him a valuable role-player off the bench. I also see his size and passing ability being a plus in certain systems. The triangle offense is one that requires a “point forward”, and is a role that I could see Anderson sliding into very well. His pre-draft workouts will be especially important to where he eventually gets selected. If he can belay some fears about his lack of explosiveness, he might prove too intriguing a prospect to pass up. I believe he’ll be taken in the 15-22 range of the upcoming draft. If he ends up with a team that runs the right system and exhibits some patience with his development, Anderson might have a future in the league. I just don’t see him becoming an all-star anytime soon.

Note: Kyle Anderson Sr. tells Hoops Rumors that he was misquoted in the USA Today article linked in the third paragraph, and that he loved the multifaceted role that Hurley crafted for his son at St. Anthony. Anderson Sr. said he “never once had a complaint” with his son’s high school coach.

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Prospect Profile: Doug McDermott

April 5th, 2014 at 9:39am CST by Cray Allred

Doug McDermott strongly considered entering last year’s draft, but opted to stay in school for one more year. As we detailed in our profile of Marcus Smart, a year can make quite a difference in a player’s draft value. While Smart’s stock has slipped from last year, when he declined to stay at Oklahoma State despite being projected near the very top of the draft, McDermott has seen his stock skyrocket after returning to Creighton for his senior year.

Last year, McDermott was seen as a late first-rounder or second-rounder at best, but he’s projected at No. 10 overall in the latest DraftExpress mock draft, and ranked No. 13 in ESPN Insider Chad Ford’s Top 100 prospects list. Ironically, McDermott didn’t even consider a lottery selection to be a possibility when making his decision to return for his senior year. McDermott sought Creighton alum Kyle Korver‘s advice, telling Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports at the time, “[The 2014 draft] looks stronger at the top 15 to 18 picks, but after that it’s about the same. But that’s probably not going to be my range this year or next year, anyway. That helped me [decide].”

McDermott played power forward in college, and is listed at 6’8″ and 225 lbs. A dynamic scorer, the 22-year-old averaged 21.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game with a slash line of .550/.458/.831 in his four years at Creighton. He upped his scoring average this year, but was actually a slightly more efficient scorer in his junior year. It’s possible that Creighton’s move from the Missouri Valley Conference to the Big East had a hand in raising his profile, validating his status as one of the nation’s premier scorers. McDermott is already an extremely decorated athlete, holding Creighton’s all-time scoring record with more than 1,000 points more than the next most prolific scoring Bluejay, ranking third in career rebounds at the school, and becoming one of just a dozen players to earn First-Team All American honors three times in the history of the award.

McDermott is probably a bit undersized to establish himself as exclusively a power forward in the NBA, and isn’t quick enough to guard many of the league’s small forwards. The dreaded “tweener” label isn’t always a death knell, especially in a league utilizing more and more small-ball and unconventional lineups. However, some young frontcourt players with positional ambiguity have indeed struggled, for example Anthony Bennett (6’8″, 259 lbs.; designated a small forward) and Derrick Williams (6’8″, 240 lbs.; designated a power forward).

McDermott’s greatest strengths have been shooting and rebounding, two skillsets that tend to translate well from college to pro hoops. However, some scouts have questions about his size and lack of athleticism. Whether McDermott can survive defensively in the NBA is a concern. McDermott’s athletic limitations don’t preclude him from finding ways to effectively spot-up or even create his shot consistently, but it’s a tougher task to overcome the same limitations on defense.

There are plenty of elite shooters and scorers in the NBA who thrive despite being liabilities on the defensive end, although it is easier to hide or even utilize a physically overmatched wing in a team defense scheme than it is to accommodate for a limited frontcourt defender. David Lee of the Warriors is close to McDermott’s size, and his poor defense makes his value as a starter arguably a net loss despite his knack for scoring and rebounding, depending on how you value certain advanced metrics. Still, McDermott would be a huge success as a late lottery pick if his career paralleled that of Lee.

Whichever team selects McDermott will see whether he can continue to find ways to make his game work, taking a chance in the hopes that he will be able to produce somewhere north of 15 points per game in a best-case scenario. McDermott, a coach’s son, will no doubt work to make that team’s gamble worthwhile. Even in the case that he doesn’t pan out as a top-shelf NBA talent, there are greater risks than drafting an established shooter.

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Updates On Protected 2014 First-Round Picks

April 4th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

There were five protected first-round picks that appeared up for grabs a month ago when I last looked at the 2014 selections that could change hands. Now, there are only two. The Pistons have little to play for, suggesting their free fall will help them keep their pick, protected for the top-eight selections, from going to the Bobcats. The Mavs, fighting for a playoff spot, are in a much more intriguing position, with their pick headed to the Thunder if its not in the top 20.

Dallas sits 22nd in our Reverse Standings, and the Mavs are in line for the seventh playoff seed in the Western Conference. They’re also just a half-game up on the Grizzlies and Suns, who are tied for eighth. Missing the playoffs would guarantee that Dallas keeps its pick, but that’s clearly not the ideal outcome for the franchise.

The disparity between the conferences has much to do with the uncertainty. Normally, a team with the ninth-best record in the league would be a shoo-in for the playoffs, but that’s not the case this year. Dallas has a better record than all but two Eastern Conference teams, and that could still be true even if the Mavs miss the playoffs. The Bulls and Raptors are tied for 19th and 20th in our Reverse Standings, and their records are a game and a half inferior to Dallas’ 45-31 mark. Memphis, at 44-31, is a game better than the Bulls and Raptors, but the Grizzlies would be out of the playoffs if they started today.

In all likelihood, either the Bulls or Raptors will have to finish well to give the Mavs a shot to make the playoffs and keep their pick. It would help the Mavs if they, the Suns, and the Grizzlies all struggle in the season’s final days, but that seems unlikely, given their strong records and how much is at stake.

It’s so much simpler for the Pistons. They’ll be rooting for the Cavs, who are ninth in the Reverse Standings, to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff race and keep winning. The Pistons have a realistic shot to finish with the sixth-worst record in the league. If they finish in the eighth position, they’d run a slight risk of having a team behind them in the order jump ahead of them during the May 20th draft lottery.

The fate of the rest of the picks is more or less decided. The Timberwolves sit 13th in the Reverse Standings, and they’d have to give their pick to the Suns if it’s No. 14 or lower. But, Minnesota is six and a half games worse than Memphis, which is currently in the 14th spot. It appears that unless the Grizzlies, or whoever finishes in the 14th spot at the end of the regular season, gets incredibly lucky in the lottery, the Wolves will keep their pick.

Here’s a rundown of all the protected picks, sorted by the likelihood that they’ll change hands:

Up in the air

    • Detroit Pistons (to Bobcats if not in top 8). Current projection: tied for 7th/8th.
  • Dallas Mavericks (to Thunder if not in top 20). Current projection: 22nd.

Will change hands (mathematically certain)

  • Washington Wizards (to Suns if not in top 12). Current projection: 17th.
  • Indiana Pacers (to Suns if not in top 14). Current projection: 26th.

Likely to change hands

  • New Orleans Pelicans (to 76ers if not in top 5). Current projection: 10th.
  • Charlotte Bobcats (to Bulls if not in top 10). Current projection: 16th.
  • Portland Trail Blazers (to Bobcats if not in top 12). Current projection: 24th.

Unlikely to change hands

  • Minnesota Timberwolves (to Suns if not in top 13). Current projection: 13th.
  • Sacramento Kings (to Bulls if not in top 12). Current projection: tied for 7th/8th.

Will not change hands (mathematically certain) 

  • Philadelphia 76ers (to Celtics if not in top 14). Current projection: 2nd.
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Team Options And Restricted Free Agency

April 3rd, 2014 at 3:32pm CST by Chuck Myron

Every rookie scale contract in the league, by rule, includes a pair of team options. Otherwise, team options are rare. NBA clubs prefer the flexibility of non-guaranteed seasons instead, since they allow the team to cut ties with the player at any point before the leaguewide guarantee date of January 7th. Team options must either be exercised or declined before the NBA’s calendar flips over on July 1st. (Rookie scale options must be exercised or declined on October 31st the year before the option season would begin.) Players, too, can benefit from the greater flexibility of a non-guaranteed contract, since they can earn a portion of their salary if they remain on the roster for a partial season.

Still, a growing number of free agents are signing contracts with team options. Of the 13 existing NBA contracts that include team options for future seasons and aren’t rookie scale deals, 11 have been signed since this past July. A handful of those contracts last four seasons, and there’s a compelling reason for teams to structure deals that way for second-round picks and undrafted players.

Chandler Parsons is Exhibit A. The Rockets haven’t informed Parsons about whether they intend to decline his option, worth about $965K, for next season, as Parsons tells Grantland’s Zach Lowe. Under most circumstances, Houston’s decision would be a no-brainer. Parsons has far outperformed his deal, signed after the Rockets took him in the second round of the 2011 draft, and having him for an additional season at a cost of less than $1MM would give the team one of the league’s best bargains. What makes his case so intriguing is that undrafted players and second-round picks, like Parsons, can be restricted free agents if their contracts end before their fourth seasons. So, the Rockets could decline their option and have the right to match other teams’ offers for their small forward. Houston wouldn’t have that right in 2015 if the team exercised its option on Parsons, who’d become an unrestricted free agent when his contract ends after 2014/15.

The team option gives Houston a choice that a non-guaranteed season wouldn’t. If 2014/15 were a non-guaranteed year for Parsons, rather than an option year, the Rockets could only make him a free agent this summer if they waived him, and he’d be an unrestricted free agent, and not a restricted one, if he cleared waivers.

Three other teams did deals this year that mimic the Parsons contract, and it’s not surprising that the Sixers are one of them. GM Sam Hinkie was the executive vice president of basketball operations for the Rockets when they signed Parsons. Philadelphia signed two undrafted rookies this season to four-year contracts with a team option in the fourth year. The contracts for Brandon Davies and Hollis Thompson, just like the one for Parsons, aren’t fully guaranteed in the seasons leading up to the option. Davies signed his deal without any guarantee at all, while Thompson received a tiny partial guarantee of $35K for this season.

Neither Davies nor Thompson has guaranteed salary on his respective option year. That means that the Sixers could pick up their options and still cut ties with them before opening night without owing them any money that year, just as with a regular non-guaranteed season. Parsons has a partial guarantee on his salary next season. If the Rockets and Sixers exercise their options, those contracts will become just like any other deal that isn’t fully guaranteed. The only difference will be that their teams will have had a chance to make them restricted free agents, a valuable resource in case the player, as Parsons did, blossoms into a sought-after commodity.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey and his disciple aren’t the only ones who’ve caught on. Former Cavs GM Chris Grant signed Carrick Felix, the 33rd overall pick in the 2013 draft, to a four-year deal with a team option in the final season. In Felix’s case, the only non-guaranteed money is in the third year, and the fourth year is fully guaranteed providing the Cavs exercise their option. Hawks GM Danny Ferry, Grant’s former boss in Cleveland, produced the latest iteration of this trend when he pried 2013 second-rounder Mike Muscala from his Spanish league contract in February to bring him stateside. Muscala’s four-year deal is 50% guaranteed next season but henceforth completely non-guaranteed, and that includes the fourth-year option season.

Not every team has the flexibility to make four-year offers. Teams need either cap space or a portion of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception to sign rookies for four years. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more contracts like these in the future, especially if the Rockets use their team option on Parsons this summer and other teams hesitate to give him an offer. Teams may become more hesistant to use their full mid-level on veteran free agents so they can leave room to sign one or two intriguing young players to four-year deals.

It’s unlikely that Thompson, Davies, Felix or Muscala will ever become as valuable as Parsons is, and there’s a decent chance that their teams will waive them long before the option year comes around. Still, the Rockets, Sixers, Cavs and Hawks had nothing to lose, and neither would any team that does a similar deal. It’s a smart play that can look even smarter over time.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Eric Bledsoe

April 2nd, 2014 at 1:50pm CST by Chuck Myron

Suns owner Robert Sarver and president of basketball operations Lon Babby both said even before Eric Bledsoe returned from a torn meniscus in his right knee that they intend to match any offer for the restricted free agent this summer. That doesn’t preclude teams from challenging them to honor their word and making the Suns pay dearly to keep a 24-year-old who’s only started 69 games in his NBA career. Indeed, it appears the Lakers have considered overpaying for Bledsoe this summer to see if they can bring him back to L.A., where he spent his first two NBA seasons with the Clippers.

Overpaying for Bledsoe would almost certainly entail a maximum-salary offer, and even that sort of money might not be too much for a player with his upside. The Rich Paul client is only eligible for a starting salary worth approximately 25% of the salary cap. The precise figure won’t be known until after the July Moratorium, but it’ll likely be close to $14MM, based on last year’s numbers. That would give him more money than fellow point guards Stephen Curry and Ty Lawson but less than elites like Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. He’d have the same salary as John Wall, who shared a backcourt with Bledsoe in their lone season at the University of Kentucky.

Wall received his max via an extension with the Wizards this past summer. The Suns were wary of handing out a lucrative extension to Bledsoe, whom they’d just acquired via trade with the Clippers. The former 18th overall pick had never been a full-time starter, and so GM Ryan McDonough and company took a cautious approach, even though it seems likely they could have extended Bledsoe for significantly less than the max. The Suns gave him a chance to prove his worth this season, and when healthy, he’s done just that, averaging 17.3 points, 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. The Suns give up 3.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Bledsoe on the floor, thanks in part to his team-leading 1.5 steals per game. In hindsight, the decision not to extend Bledsoe looks like a mistake.

There’s still plenty of room for him to improve, as his 3.1 turnovers per contest demonstrate. Still, it’s about the same rate of turnovers per minute as he’s committed throughout his career, so it’s no sign of regression. He shot nearly 40% from behind the arc last season and is making just 34.2% on such attempts this year, but apart from last season’s small sample size of 78 attempts, he’s never been a top-flight shooter from long distance. His assist numbers aren’t eye-popping because he shares ball-distributing duties with Goran Dragic.

The presence of Dragic complicates matters to some degree. The pairing of two point guards has certainly worked so far this season, but Bledsoe and Dragic have only shared the floor for a total of 716 minutes, or the equivalent of about 15 full games, a sample size that might be too small for the team to draw definitive conclusions. Dragic, not Bledsoe, has been the team’s most productive player this season, and if Dragic turns down his $7.5MM player option after next season, he can become a sought-after free agent in the summer of 2015. Dragic is also three and a half years older than Bledsoe, and the Slovenian has never played nearly as well as he has this season, so a regression could be in order for next year. If Dragic continues his sterling play, the Suns face the prospect of paying nearly $30MM a year to retain both of them.

The Suns have the benefit of cap flexibility if that scenario emerges. They’re tied only to about $23.6MM for next season and less than $1MM in the two seasons that follow. That doesn’t include rookie salaries for the slew of first-round picks coming Phoenix’s way in the new few years, but those are fungible assets that the Suns would have little trouble sending away if they want to pursue a marquee to add to Bledsoe and Dragic.

Plenty of teams would love to forestall the rise of the Suns, who play in an attractive, warm-weather city, as a title contender, and Bledsoe will draw plenty of attention this summer, as he did last year when he was on the trade block. The Raptors, Pelicans, Pistons, Magic, Mavericks and Celtics all expressed interest in trading for Bledsoe this past summer, with the majority of the talk surrounding Orlando. The Magic’s interest might have been overstated, and while the team seems committed to a slow rebuild, I wouldn’t be surprised to see GM Rob Hennigan float an offer to the point guard. The Magic would have little to lose in doing so, since even if Bledsoe signs an offer sheet and the Clippers take the maximum three days to match, Orlando probably wouldn’t miss out on any of its primary targets during the 72-hour holding period.

Sacrificing $14MM worth of cap maneuverability for three days is probably a worthwhile endeavor for other teams, too, but it’s certainly no given that Bledsoe would entertain signing an offer sheet. His contract could run for five years, with 7.5% raises, if he signs with the Suns outright, but he’d only get four seasons and 4.5% raises on an offer sheet with another team. Given the team’s stated intention to match any offer, Bledsoe and his agent have reason to negotiate with Phoenix first. That might be why Sarver and Babby have both said publicly that they’re willing to match offers, though I’d expect Paul to shop his client elsewhere if the Suns don’t at least come in with an offer equivalent to what other teams can make.

Ultimately, I don’t expect Bledsoe to change teams for a second consecutive summer. He’s only appeared in 35 games for the Suns, but his success, and the success of the team, is enough to justify the Suns keeping the No. 4 free agent in our 2014 power rankings around at any price.

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