Details On Traded Picks, Upcoming Draft Tiebreakers
With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.
More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.
However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).
[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]
For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.
For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.
Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:
- Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
- Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
- Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
- Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.
Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.
Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:
- Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
- Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
- Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
- Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
- Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
- Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
- Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
- Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
- Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
- Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30
Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:
- Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
- Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
- Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
- Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
- Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
- Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
- Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
- Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
- Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
- Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
- Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
- Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
- Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60
Robert Pera Decides To Retain Control Of Grizzlies
10:42am: Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post clarifies (via Twitter) that Pera will purchase Kaplan’s share at the same valuation as Straus’ high bid (noted below), buying out both minority stakeholders.
APRIL 10, 9:38am: ESPN’s Zach Lowe provides a couple more details on the Grizzlies’ ownership situation, reporting that it was Straus’ bid – rather than Kaplan’s – that Pera needed to match. Straus’ higher bid valued the franchise between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, per Lowe.
With Pera set to buy out Straus, it’s unclear how Kaplan and his shares are impacted, Lowe adds.
APRIL 9, 7:12pm: Grizzlies majority owner Robert Pera has sent a formal notice to the NBA indicating that he will retain his controlling interest in the franchise, the team announced in a press release.
Pera shared his decision in an open letter from to Grizzlies MVP Season Ticket Members. Minority stakeholders Steve Kaplan and Daniel Straus had triggered a clause in the purchase agreement that forced Pera to either buy them out or sell at a valuation of their choosing.
That duo placed a valuation of just over $1 billion on the franchise. Pera then needed to decide between buying out their shares or selling his own shares at the price of their valuation.
Pera might still wind up selling the team in the long run after buying out their shares, Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post tweets.
Pera’s decision to retain control could also improve the chances of J.B. Bickerstaff being retained as head coach.
Suns Secure Top Spot In Lottery Standings
Following the Grizzlies’ win over Detroit and the Suns‘ loss to Golden State on Sunday, Phoenix has locked up the NBA’s worst record for the 2017/18 season. As our Reverse Standings show, the Suns’ 2.5-game lead for that top lottery spot ensures that they’ll head into next month’s draft lottery with a 25% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. They’ll also be guaranteed a top-four pick in the 2018 draft.
The Suns will be hoping for better luck this year than they had last spring — after finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record in 2016/17, Phoenix slipped out of the top three of last year’s lottery, ultimately landing Josh Jackson with the fourth overall pick. This time around, the Suns will have a 64.3% chance of securing a top-three selection.
Although the Grizzlies are no longer in the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery, they look like a good bet to wind up at No. 2 in the lottery standings — they have a 22-58 record, putting them 1.5 games ahead of the 24-57 Hawks and Mavericks with three days left in the season.
Unlike in the NBA’s playoff race, where ties are broken based on each team’s performance in certain regular-season matchups, lottery ties are broken via coin flips. If Atlanta and Dallas ultimately finish tied for third in the lottery standings, they’d receive nearly equal odds of landing the No. 1 pick. Rather than 15.6% for third place and 11.9% for fourth, one team would have a 13.8% chance for the No. 1 pick and one team would have a 13.7% chance. In that scenario, the winner of a coin flip would receive the slightly higher lottery odds, and would get the higher draft pick if neither team ends up in the top three.
2018 represents the last year that the NBA will use its current draft lottery format. Starting in 2019, the lottery odds will be smoothed out, reducing the “top” teams’ chances of landing the highest picks. If the Suns had finished No. 1 in the lottery standings under that new format, they’d only have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick – plus a 40% chance at a top-three selection – and could have fallen as low as No. 5.
Grizzlies Notes: Pera, Transactions, NBA Draft
The working assumption around the NBA is that Robert Pera will retain ownership of the Grizzlies franchise, Chris Herrington of The Memphis Commercial Appeal tweets. The scribe cites comments made by Marc Stein of The New York Times in a recent podcast.
As we covered last month, Pera is expected to have the opportunity to buy out minority stakeholders Steve Kaplan and Daniel Straus after they triggered a clause in the purchase agreement that forced him to either buy them out or sell at a valuation of their choosing.
Herrington also relays that if Pera remains in control of the franchise, J.B. Bickerstaff is a decent bet to retain the head coaching job.
There’s more out of Memphis tonight:
- There’s a very good chance that the Grizzlies end up with a top-six pick in this June’s NBA draft. Chris Herrington of The Memphis Commercial Appeal recently broke down six of the top league prospects, such as DeAndre Ayton and Luka Doncic, detailing how they might or might not fit with the Grizzlies.
- The Grizzlies haven’t had much luck in the draft of late and 2016 first-round pick Wade Baldwin, who was surprisingly waived by the club prior to the 2017/18 season, is a reminder of that. Chris Herrington of The Memphis Commercial Appeal writes that Memphis needs to find a better way of stocking its cupboard with young talent.
- Shortly after locking MarShon Brooks (our story) into a multiyear deal earlier today, the Grizzlies announced that they’ve cut Marquis Teague in order to make room to sign Omari Johnson (our story).
Grizzlies Sign Omari Johnson, Cut Marquis Teague
The Grizzlies have made a roster change today, announcing in a press release that they’ve signed forward Omari Johnson to a multiyear contract. To create an opening on the roster, Memphis has waived guard Marquis Teague.
Johnson, 28, went undrafted out of Oregon State in 2011 and has played for a variety of professional teams since then, spending time in Canada, Spain, and Lithuania, as well as in the G League. This season, the 6’9″ forward has played for the Grizzlies’ NBAGL affiliate, the Memphis Hustle, averaging 16.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG with a .460/.418/.824 shooting line in 44 games.
Johnson’s salary for 2018/19 will be non-guaranteed, notes Michael Wallace of Grizzlies.com (Twitter link).
As for Teague, he only signed his rest-of-season deal with the Grizzlies three days ago, so his stint on a standard contract didn’t last long. Memphis may have preferred to get a longer look at a forward instead of Teague this summer after signing another guard – MarShon Brooks – to a multiyear deal today. Or the Grizzlies may have simply wanted to reward Teague with an NBA salary despite him not being a part of their long-term plans.
It’s also worth noting, according to Wallace (Twitter links), that the Grizzlies will be without forwards Jarell Martin (ankle) and Chandler Parsons (knee) for the season’s final four games, creating a need for some frontcourt depth. Wayne Selden (knee) will miss the rest of the season too, Wallace notes.
Grizzlies Sign MarShon Brooks To Multiyear Deal
The Grizzlies have officially locked up shooting guard MarShon Brooks to a new multiyear contract, the club announced today in a press release. Michael Scotto of The Athletic (Twitter link) first reported late last night that Brooks would be signing a new deal with Memphis after his first 10-day contract expired.
As Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports reports, Brooks’ deal will be fully guaranteed for the rest of this season and for the 2018/19 campaign. Memphis faced some competition for Brooks, who drew interest from multiple playoff-contending teams as his 10-day deal neared an end, according to Charania. However, the 29-year-old was able to work out a new agreement with the Grizzlies. Charania suggests the club used its leftover mid-level exception money to give Brooks a slight salary bump for the rest of this season.
No NBA player has posted more impressive numbers on a 10-day contract this season than Brooks, who returned to the league after a four-year absence and posted three consecutive 20-point games. In total, the former first-round pick has averaged 23.3 PPG and 3.7 APG so far, with a scorching .571/.647/.846 shooting line.
Brooks had been occupying the 15th and final spot on the Grizzlies’ NBA roster, so the club no longer has any openings as the regular season nears an end.
Grizzlies Sign Marquis Teague For Season
The Grizzlies have signed point guard Marquis Teague for the remainder of the 2017/18 season, the team announced today in a press release. Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported the agreement. Teague had been on a 10-day contract with Memphis, which expired overnight on Monday.
Teague, 25, was a first-round pick in 2012, but before signing with the Grizzlies in March, he hadn’t played in the NBA since the 2013/14 season, when he split time between the Bulls and Nets. In two games during his first 10-day stint in Memphis, Teague averaged just 4.0 PPG in 26.5 minutes per contest, but did pick up five assists in each contest.
The Grizzlies are still carrying MarShon Brooks on a 10-day deal and will make Teague their 14th player on a guaranteed contract, filling up their 15-man roster. As we noted earlier today, the Grizzlies hadn’t yet given a second contract to any player they signed to a 10-day deal — Teague becomes the first.
Grizzlies Sign MarShon Brooks, Cut Brice Johnson
12:39pm: The Grizzlies have officially signed Brooks to a 10-day deal, the team announced in a press release. To open up a roster spot, Memphis has waived Brice Johnson.
Johnson, acquired from Detroit in a deadline trade last month, appeared in nine games for the Grizzlies. Like Brooks, he’s a former 25th overall pick.
11:33am: The Grizzlies intend to sign guard MarShon Brooks to a 10-day contract, reports Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).
Brooks, a first-round pick in 2011, had a decent rookie season with the Nets, averaging 12.6 PPG and 3.6 RPG in 56 contests. However, his minutes were cut back the following year, and Brooklyn traded him in 2013. Brooks bounced around the NBA during the 2013/14 season, appearing in games for the Celtics, Warriors, and Lakers.
Since the end of the ’13/14 campaign, Brooks has played international ball, primarily in China with the Jiangsu Dragons. This season, the 29-year-old filled up the box score with 36.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 5.7 APG in 36 Chinese League games for Jiangsu.
The Grizzlies currently have a full 15-man roster, so there are three possibilities for the team to open up a roster spot and finalize Brooks’ reported signing. Memphis could terminate Marquis Teague‘s 10-day contract, wait until after Teague’s deal expires on April 2, or waive another player with a guaranteed contract.
Grizzlies Sign Marquis Teague To 10-Day Contract
MARCH 24: The Grizzlies made their 10-day deal with Teague official, according to a press release from the team.
MARCH 23: The 10-day contract of Grizzlies guard Briante Weber expires today, and league sources tell Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports that Memphis will sign former first-round pick Marquis Teague of the Grizzlies’ G League affiliate, Memphis Hustle, to the open roster spot vacated by Weber as early as tomorrow.
Teague, 25, was drafted by the Bulls with the 29th pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, but failed to make an impact in the league. Chicago traded Teague to Brooklyn, who subsequently traded him to Philadelphia, who waived him before his rookie-scale contract expired. In 88 career NBA games, he has averaged 2.3 points and 1.4 assists in only 9.5 minutes per game.
Recently, Teague played for Ironi Nahariya of the Israeli Basketball Premier League before being drafted by the Hustle in the G League expansion draft last summer. This season, he has averaged 17.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, and 3.4 RPG while shooting 42.7% from long range in 47 G League games.
With two seasons of NBA experience under his belt, Teague’s 10-day contract will count as $83,129 against Memphis’ cap.
Parsons Confident For Next Season
- It has been a frustrating tenure so far in Memphis for Grizzlies forward Chandler Parsons, but as reported by Michael Wallace of Grizzlies.com, Parsons believes he can get back to form next season barring any additional injury setbacks. “Obviously, there were high expectations coming here and I haven’t come close to meeting them. But in my head, it’s all health. I know if I’m healthy, I can play with the best of them. And I’ve shown flashes of that this year when I’ve played minutes.”