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Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

June 11th, 2012 at 11:10am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Zach Randolph ($16,500,000)
Rudy Gay ($16,460,538)
Marc Gasol ($13,891,359)
Mike Conley ($7,305,786)
Tony Allen ($3,300,000)
Dante Cunningham ($2,090,000)
Quincy Pondexter ($1,234,320)
Jeremy Pargo ($1,000,000)
Josh Selby ($762,195)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

O.J. Mayo ($11,265,274)
Marreese Speights ($6,803,138)
Darrell Arthur ($5,067,798)
Hamed Haddadi ($2,470,000)
Lester Hudson ($1,085,120 – QO)
Gilbert Arenas ($854,389)
(Steven Hunter – $7,022,400)
(Leon Powe – $854,389)
(Marcus Williams – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (25th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $62,544,198
Cap Holds: $36,276,897
Total (not including draft picks): $98,821,095

After an early exit from the postseason, the Grizzlies face the unenviable task of not only trying to find a way to improve the team, but simply finding a way to keep the current roster intact. Big contracts, a handful of restricted free agents, and a reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold mean the Grizzlies will have to get creative if they want to avoid losing a key contributor or two.

Memphis has over $62MM already committed to guaranteed contracts for next season, with Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley making up a huge chunk of that figure. The four starters will earn a combined $54MM+ in 2012/13. While the Grizzlies' cap situation would be the envy of a big-market club like the Lakers, it creates some issues in Memphis. Owner Michael Heisley has been adamant that his team "can't be in the luxury tax business" and says the club isn't in position to add much salary.

If the entire Grizzlies core were under contract, the luxury tax wouldn't be an issue, but three players the team would like to keep – O.J. Mayo, Marreese Speights, and Darrell Arthur – are facing free agency this summer. If Memphis wants to avoid the tax line, which figures to be a little over $70MM, retaining those players will be at the very least challenging, if not impossible.

Consider the qualifying offers the Grizzlies will have to extend if they even want to make those three players restricted free agents, rather than unrestricted. Mayo would have to be offered about $7.39MM, Speights $4.39MM, and Arthur $3MM. If those one-year offers were extended, Memphis would risk the players accepting them, which would send payroll soaring well past the tax threshold, to $77MM+.

The Grizzlies' tricky cap situation is why Gay's name will come up frequently in trade talks this offseason. While Heisley insists the club's leading scorer isn't on the block and isn't going anywhere, it makes all the sense in the world for Memphis to at least listen to offers. If a team like the Raptors, for instance, wanted to offer its lottery pick and a young player or two (think James Johnson or Ed Davis) for Gay, it would allow the Grizzlies to add young talent and cut costs, creating the room to re-sign its free agents.

If Gay stays put though, the Grizzlies will likely prepare to part ways with Mayo. Memphis should have room to retain at least one of Speights or Arthur, if not both, but that would mean the club wouldn't have the flexibility to add any outside free agents. And as good as the Grizz looked at times this past season, losing Mayo without making any major addition wouldn't put the team in a great position to compete with the Western Conference elite.

We'll get a better idea of how much stock to put into Heisley's comments about Gay as this month's draft approaches. If the Grizzlies hold onto the 25-year-old through June 28th, it's unlikely they move him this summer — their best opportunity to clear the cap amount necessary to sign their free agents is by moving Gay in a deal for a draft pick, since they could get fair value without taking significant salary back. Given how many lottery teams covet an athletic small forward, I'd be surprised not to see the Grizzlies listen to offers, but either way, we can look forward to an interesting offseason in Memphis.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Money Time: Upcoming Free Agents In The Playoffs

June 9th, 2012 at 2:50pm CST by Chuck Myron

Throughout the playoffs, we've been tracking soon-to-be free agents week by week as they make their final impressions heading into the offseason. With 12 members of the Finals-bound Thunder possessing guaranteed contracts for next season, most of the cases have been closed. So, here's a look at the three impending free agents who made the most significant leaps throughout the entire postseason, and the three who took the greatest steps back.

Winners

Kevin Garnett, Celtics: Garnett and Tim Duncan were both carrying the banner for 36-year-old former power forwards getting it done at center in the playoffs, but in the conference finals Garnett has set himself apart. In the series, he's averaged 20.0 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, helping Boston to the cusp of the NBA Finals. For the playoffs as a whole, he's ninth in points per game (19.5), fourth in rebounds per game (10.5), and second in Basketball-Reference.com's defensive rating (93.5).

Roy Hibbert, Pacers (restricted): The most significant question surrounding Hibbert's postseason performance is why his 9.5 shot attempts per game were down from the 10.3 he saw in the regular season. That reflects much more poorly on his Pacers teammates than it does upon Hibbert, who shot 50% and controlled the boards to the tune of 11.2 RPG, the second highest rebounding average in the postseason. Though his team was eliminated in the conference semifinals, Hibbert is still second in total offensive rebounds for the postseason, with 45, and third in total blocks, with 34, in 11 games. His defensive rating of 94.8 slots fourth, right behind Garnett and the next man on this list.

Lavoy Allen, Sixers (restricted): One of Garnett's playoff combatants was almost equally as impressive in the playoffs, particularly considering he's less than a year removed from being the 50th pick in the draft. Allen logged just 19.7 minutes per game, but played them efficiently, posting a 17.2 PER. His defensive rating of 94.5 was the third best in the playoffs, between Garnett and Hibbert, and his 55.7 field goal percentage was fifth among qualifiers.

Losers

Ryan Anderson, Magic (restricted): Sure, he made 40% of his three-pointers, slightly better than the 39.3% regular season clip that helped him win the NBA's Most Improved Player award. Yet he was little more than a spot-up shooter in the postseason. He took only 2.8 shots per game from inside the arc, as opposed to 5.5 during the regular season. That explains why his 16.1 PPG for the season was cut to 9.6 in the playoffs. He also had drastic regressions in rebounding (7.7 to 4.6) and PER (21.2 to 7.2).

O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies (restricted): He had more turnovers (18) than made baskets (17) in the playoffs this year, making a strong case that he's unfit the spot duty at point guard he saw against the Clippers. Mayo made 27.4% of his field goals, 29.2% from three-point range, and compiled a PER of 7.9 — well below average. In a roundabout way, he may have created a little more bargaining power for himself this summer, as the Grizzlies may decline to tender him a qualifying offer to avoid the luxury tax, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Matt Barnes, Lakers: In the regular season, Barnes was an asset to the Lakers, rebounding and blocking shots at a higher rate than ever as he settled into the primary backup role at both wing positions. In the playoffs, he was so much of a liability that he barely saw the floor in the last four games against the Thunder. The extra rebounding and blocked shots disappeared, and Barnes shot just 27.1 percent from the field, including an atrocious 5-for-31 from three-point range.

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Grizzlies Owner: No Plans To Move Rudy Gay

June 8th, 2012 at 12:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Recent reports have suggested the Grizzlies are open to shopping Rudy Gay, perhaps for a lottery pick, but owner Michael Heisley insists that's not the case.

"We’re not looking to trade Rudy Gay," Heisley told Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal. "We’re not shopping him around. Period. Do we sit around and say ‘What if we traded Rudy, who could we get?’ No. Right now, Rudy is part of the future of this team."

Grizzlies Expected To Shop Rudy Gay

June 5th, 2012 at 6:47pm CST by Luke Adams

TUESDAY, 6:47pm: Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio confirms that "talk around the league" indicates the Grizzlies are shopping Rudy Gay. According to Amico, Memphis seems to be seeking a lottery pick in return.

"He won't be an easy move," one team executive told Amico. "It's hard to imagine them getting back what they want for him, based on what I'm hearing."

Odds & Ends: Bucks, Grizzlies, Gay, Wizards, Suns

June 4th, 2012 at 10:13pm CST by Zachary Links

The Bucks may be in need of a big man following their trade of Andrew Bogut to the Warriors, but Milwaukee is also taking a hard look at the guards in this year's draft, writes Charles F. Gardner of the Journal-Sentinel. While the club is expected to target size with their No. 12 pick, they could go after a guard with size at No. 42 in support of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom and Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor were among those auditioned yesterday. Here's a look at tonight's links..

Southwest Notes: Grizzlies, Gay, Hornets, Mavs

June 2nd, 2012 at 5:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Spurs are two wins away from the NBA Finals. The Mavs are courting Deron Williams in an attempt to get back into championship contention. The Rockets want to make a splash by going after a star player this summer. The Grizzlies have been a playoff team for two years in a row. The Hornets have the No. 1 and the No. 10 picks in the draft. The Southwest Division could be the league's toughest next season, particularly if the Hornets can re-sign Eric Gordon. Here's what's happening around the Southwest now.

Odds & Ends: Raptors, Gay, Bulls, Hibbert, Draft

May 19th, 2012 at 10:14pm CST by Zachary Links

Links from around the Association as the Thunder and Lakers do battle at the Staples Center…

Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld looks at possible draft day trades for the Raptors. Possible targets include Rudy Gay of the Grizzlies and Luol Deng of the Bulls should they choose to restructure their roster in anticipation of Derrick Rose's return in 2013.
You might think that a player in his contract year would be focused on building up his stats, but Pacers center Roy Hibbert isn't overly concerned with that, writes Conrad Brunner of Pacers.com.
Matt Moore of CBSSports.com hosts a roundtable to ask if the Western Conference is still the stronger of the two.
HoopsWorld compiled the complete history of every draft pick from No.1 all the way to No. 60.

Odds & Ends: Mayo, Joe Johnson, Hawks

May 16th, 2012 at 11:03pm CST by Ryan Raroque

Here are some of tonight's miscellaneous links:

Lang Greene of HoopsWorld had his weekly chat with fans tonight. Among the significant things I took from his exchange: O.J. Mayo will most likely leave Memphis since the Grizzlies do not want to exceed the luxury tax and that Joe Johnson won't likely be dealt anytime soon.
Greene also took a look at what to expect from the Hawks this offseason. Aside from being committed to $61 MM in salaries with six roster spots to fill, the team could have some decisions to face with management and coaching as well. We reported earlier this week that current general manager Rick Sund has drawn interest from the Trail Blazers, and Greene thinks that his departure could also mean an end to Larry Drew's tenure with the team.
Kevin Sherrington of SportsDay DFW answered some questions from fans today, including an explanation of why he'd choose Rick Carlisle over Phil Jackson.
This Reuters article (via Simon Evans) examines Miami's struggles as a result of Chris Bosh's absence. The Heat players outside of Lebron and Wade were a combined 9-for-34, and Mario Chalmers was limited to 22 minutes because of foul trouble. Even with that in mind, the Heat don't appear to be fazed going into a road game against a confident Pacers team.

Southwest Notes: Benson, Carlisle, Assistants

May 16th, 2012 at 6:37pm CST by Ryan Raroque

It's intriguing to note that even with this year's lockout shortened schedule, the Spurs haven't finished a season with less than 50 wins since the 1998-99 season (which only had 50 games). Following a Game One win last night against the Clippers, it's one game down and three more wins to go for San Antonio in their quest to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2008. With about 26 hours until tip-off for Game Two, here's what we've heard out of the Southwest Division in the meantime:

Tom Benson cleared another hurdle in the process of assuming ownership of the Hornets, as the Federal Trade Commission signed off today on his $338 MM purchase of the team, writes John Reid of The Times Picayune.
Not every coach in the league experiences the same pressure of working for a candidly passionate and fanatical owner like Mark Cuban, but Rick Carlisle believes that those traits bring along a constant effort to provide the necessary resources to compete. Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas recorded more of Carlisle's thoughts on his confidence in management along with the work cut out ahead for the Mavericks this summer.
Tom Ziller of SBNation gives his power rankings of the NBA's top assistant coaches who deserve a shot at a head coaching position. Dave Joerger of the Grizzlies is slated at number four, while Mike Budenholzer of the Spurs tops the list at number one.

Free Agent Stock Watch: O.J. Mayo

May 15th, 2012 at 3:24pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks' salary cap situation has received plenty of attention lately, and rightly so. With Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler taking up a good chunk of the team's payroll for the next three years, there's little flexibility to bring in more talent or even bring back the team's own free agents. While the Grizzlies may not be quite as hamstrung, Memphis' situation isn't unlike New York's.

Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, and Marc Gasol are set to earn about $47MM next year, and that number will only increase over the next couple seasons. With Mike Conley and a number of other players on guaranteed contracts for 2012/13, Memphis heads into the summer with about $62.5MM already committed to team salary.

Owner Michael Heisley has said he doesn't want the Grizzlies to be a taxpaying team, so unless the club finds a blockbuster deal in which it moves one of its expensive stars and regains some cap flexbility, one player is clearly on his way out of town: O.J. Mayo.

Mayo is frequently referred to as a restricted free agent, but the chances he becomes restricted are slim. The Grizzlies would have to extend him a one-year qualifying offer worth about $7.39MM in order to make him a restricted free agent. If Heisley is serious about avoiding the luxury tax, the Grizzlies probably can't risk making such an offer, since the team would be forced past the tax threshold if Mayo were to accept it.

So the former third overall pick appears poised to join a group of unrestricted free agent two guards that already includes Ray Allen, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Nick Young, C.J. Miles, and others. While it's a stacked group, it won't necessarily lead to a buyer's market. The Celtics, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Pacers, Clippers, Timberwolves, Magic, and Trail Blazers are among the clubs that could be interesting in signing a free agent two guard this summer.

Of course, Mayo's suitors may not be limited to teams in need of a shooting guard. The 24-year-old has expressed a desire to play the point, and while it would take an adventurous or desperate team to sign him as its starting point guard, perhaps he could draw interest as a combo guard that can earn minutes at both backcourt spots.

Coming off a $5.63MM salary in 2011/12, Mayo likely won't be eager to take a pay cut, but it's hard to imagine him getting an offer much larger than the $5MM mid-level. That means teams with cap space, such as the Cavs or Pacers, won't necessarily have the advantage over over-the-cap clubs like the Clippers and Timberwolves.

Mayo, who was considered the top prep star in the country in 2007, has yet to become the NBA difference-maker that many were expecting. But at the very least, he's turned into a solid scorer, and a player who figures to earn a multiyear deal worth at least in the neighborhood of $5MM annually this offseason.