These teams simply can’t be caught in the position of trading for Davis and watching him walk. Teams like the Jazz, Pacers, and Hawks (via their top draft choice and Trae Young) probably have enough assets to engage in a deal with the Pelicans, though the chances of getting Davis to stick after making a theoretical trade approaches zero. Other teams, such as the Pistons and Grizzlies, simply don’t the means to trade for the 25-year-old superstar.
Trail Blazers
Portland plans to aggressively pursue another star to pair with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and if they can someone land Davis without giving up those two, the franchise should pull the trigger. The Trail Blazers have been good with this core, but – like the Raptors prior to adding Kawhi Leonard – they’ve probably hit their ceiling as currently constructed.
Would Portland rather have at least two serious playoff runs with the Lillard-McCollum-Davis trio or a longer streak of solid, but likely uninspiring playoff appearances? Seems like the former if it’s on the table.
Must Meticulously Evaluate The Risks Internally
Raptors
Sixers
The Raptors are already all-in this season after taking their chances with Leonard and adding Davis before the deadline could potentially help them convince the small forward to stay—even for just one more season. Davis won’t be able to walk until the end of the 2019/20 season and neither player will have a straight path to a contender that’s fully built if they decided to look elsewhere.
Any offer would likely have to begin with Pascal Siakam, who is receiving consideration for an All-Star nod for his work this season, The price would also have to include other assets such as future picks and other players, such as Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka, in order to match salary. The risk-reward ratio is high on both sides.
For the Sixers, it’s about whether or not it would make sense to trade one of their Big Three, as I recently examined. The team does have the ability to add Davis without giving up Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid or Jimmy Butler, but it would be rather difficult to convince the Pelicans to take an offer headlined by Markelle Fultz, veterans, and future first-round picks that are no lock to be near the lottery.
Team That Will Pester The Pelicans
Rockets
There are different ways to play the board game Monopoly. You can have a friendly game where you wait for people to roll the dice while they hear a potential trade pitches. One person talks at a time and all other players wait their turn to speak and pitch a deal.
On the other extreme, there are players who don’t stop talking, negotiating, and haggling until they have all the money. They jump into any trade talk, either angling for the deal for themselves or upping the price for the incumbent suitor. They talk their way out of landing on rival properties by devising payment plans and complex deals that allow others to land on their property at a rate that which probabilities show is favorable for them.
Both ways are within the rules, though it takes a certain type of player to thrive in the latter environment. I’ve been guilty of creating that environment on game nights; Rockets GM Daryl Morey is among those responsible for increasing the complexity and competitive landscape within the NBA.
The Rockets have a roster full of talent but they lack the ability to put together a reasonable package for Davis that doesn’t completely gut their team. Still, the Rockets will haggle, negotiate, and try everything they can to put themselves in a position to bring Davis to town.
What will that deal look like? The franchise was offering four first-rounders in exchange for Jimmy Butler and you’d imagine those are still on the table in Davis talks. Capela’s $85MM contract appeared to be money well spent prior to him missing time with an injured hand. Would the Pelicans consider trading Davis to Houston for Capela ($15.3MM) and cap filler (Brandon Knight at $14.6MM and Marquese Chriss at $3.2MM) along with those picks, provided the Rockets also took back Solomon Hill?
It feels like that’s not enough to entice New Orleans and maybe Morey would have to bring in a third team to offer a young prospect in exchange for Capela. Regardless of whether the Rockets are able to land Davis, it’s certain that they try to make the upgrade.
Dark Horses That Would Need To Get Creative
Clippers
Heat
Nets
All three of these teams play in glamour markets, though they are not created equal. The Clippers have the combination of young talent, valuable players in their prime (hello Tobias Harris), and upcoming available cap space to make any star consider joining the franchise. The key for Los Angeles is gauging whether Davis would be interested in facing LeBron James four times a year rather than teaming up with him.
Brooklyn can offer the Pelicans a mix of young guys (Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert), expiring contracts and future draft picks (the Nets have all their picks) that would entice New Orleans enough to pull the trigger on a deal. The franchise can offer Davis a great culture, a well-run organization and a major market all to himself or the ability to split it with another max free agent this summer.
The Heat don’t have many young prospects. They’re down a first-round draft pick from the Goran Dragic deal and they only possess one second-round pick over the next six years. Yet, Pat Riley believes he can convince anyone to stay in Miami and it probably means the Heat will try their best to land the soon-to-be 6-time All-Star.
The Hometown Threat
Bulls
While the Bulls certainly do not qualify as a contender, the franchise may be in a position to take a calculated risk of trading for Davis, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune contends.
The Bulls have an array of young talent. Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., and Zach LaVine are the three rostered players who likely own the highest trade value and it’s hard to imagine the Pelicans making a Davis deal without receiving at least one first-round pick in return.
Davis currently has no interest in going to his hometown Bulls, per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst. Trading for the 25-year-old without getting reassurance he will sign would carry a massive risk for the organization, though if things break right, Chicago would have an intriguing pitch to make to Davis to stay long-term. The Bulls may be able to offer Davis influence within the organization and a clean cap sheet to work with. The franchise will have upwards of $40MM in cap space during the summer, potentially giving Davis another star to co-pilot Chicago’s turnaround.
If the Pelicans don’t pull the trigger on a Davis deal before the summer, the Bulls’ chances of landing the big man would ostensibly increase. The Bulls are in position for a top draft pick and imagine a scenario where they keep either Zion Williamson or R.J. Barrett and attract a max-level player. While such a scenario seems unlikely, should it occur, the Chicago native would have to at least consider coming home and signing long-term.
The Most Interesting On-Court Fits
Nuggets
Warriors
Golden State finding a way to add the 25-year-old would cost the franchise at least one of its stars, though there is simply too much uncertainty here for both sides to make a deal. Could New Orleans trade for a package headlined by Klay Thompson knowing he could walk this summer? Would the Warriors break up their core in the midst of their quest for a three-peat? Seems unlikely from both sides.
Nikola Jokic and Davis playing off of each other would be a delight to watch and the Nuggets are set up to make a super-sized trade while retaining enough talent to contend for a championship. New Orleans could mix-and-match young talent in a Jamal Murray-led package and while the Nuggets will send the Nets their first-round pick this season, the franchise has all its other future first-rounders on hand. I can’t envision Denver taking this risk, but it’s a fun alternate reality.
The Big Stage
Knicks
New York is in every conversation about stars on the move and the franchise may have the assets to make the best offer right now. If the season ended today, no team would have a better chance at the first pick (14%), as our Reverse Standings show. New Orleans could pick between the lottery-bound selection or a healing Kristaps Porzingis if the Knicks do indeed put the former No. 4 overall pick on the table.
It’s been reported that the Knicks are Davis’ preferred destination in the Eastern Conference and with the ability to add another star this summer, it’s easy to understand why. New York is a special place and Davis would have the chance to be a legend if he delivered the city a title.
The Sleeping Giant
Celtics
Boston can make the best offer but they must wait until this summer. What kind of Jayson Tatum platter do the Pelicans prefer? The Duke product with a dash of Marcus Smart and a hint of Jaylen Brown? How about a hearty helping of a former star with name recognition in Gordon Hayward? The Celtics are hungry to add Davis even if he doesn’t necessarily have a taste for Danny Ainge‘s squad.
The Tune Squad
Lakers
Los Angeles should be viewed as the favorite given that Davis’ camp has already leaked that he may not sign an extension with anyone but the Lakers. That doesn’t mean the Pelicans have to deal him to LeBron’s team. Just as we saw with the Spurs and Kawhi – or the Thunder and Paul George before them – another team can come in and take their chances with the disgruntled star.
Time appears to be the only thing that can stand between Davis and the Lakers. Does another front office have the gumption to take a massive risk and attempt to keep him from Southern California?