Russell Westbrook received an opportunity to be the clear leader of a team for the first time in his career this past season and he delivered one of the greatest statistical seasons in recent memory. He averaged a triple-double, something that hasn’t been done since Oscar Robinson accomplished the feat in 1962, and he’s likely to take home the MVP award as a result.
The Thunder remained a major story this season because of the milestone, but they were clearly not legitimate title contenders; Kevin Durant‘s departure removed them from that elite class. Westbrook was able to put up numbers post-Durant, but he was unable to elevate the team beyond the first round of the NBA playoffs. His season ended at the hands of the Rockets in a series that highlighted team play over individualism.
Here are five questions facing the Thunder as they enter the offseason…
1. How will the front office upgrade the roster around Westbrook?
A lack of flexibility plagues GM Sam Presti, and the roster is filled with over-priced ancillary parts.
Extensions for Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo kick in this summer and for the next four years, the team will pay on average $46MM per season for two players who are unlikely to ever make an All-Star team. Enes Kanter, who saw a total of 45 minutes of playing time this postseason, will take home nearly $18MM during the 2017/18 campaign and Kyle Singler, who owned a paltry 5.9 player efficiency rating this season, will eat up nearly $4.7MM.
In all, the Thunder have roughly $110MM in guaranteed salaries on the books for the 2017/18 season against an estimated $101MM salary cap. The team owns the No. 21 overall pick in the upcoming draft and it will have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, as well as a trade exception worth approximately $4.9MM, available for use. Those tools don’t inspire much hope for an improved roster and with the team’s lack of flexibility, making substantial changes will require Presti to perform some wizardry.
2. Which of their own free agents will the Thunder retain?
Oklahoma City has Bird rights for Taj Gibson and Nick Collison, so it can go over the cap to retain their services, and it can match any offer that restricted free agent Andre Roberson receives. Despite the ability to keep all three, the Thunder will likely see at least one of their players sign elsewhere due to the team’s financials. The luxury tax line is expected to come in around $121MM next season and it’s hard to envision the front office going into tax territory for a team that isn’t a legitimate title contender.
Collison has been with the team since he was drafted in 2003. He played in just 20 games this past season and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team brought him back on a minimum salary deal.
Presti recently said that if another team extends Roberson an offer, it “decreases the chances” that he returns. He and Gibson will likely each see new deals with annual salaries in the eight-figure range which means it could come down to keeping one or the other. Bringing them both back will certainly take the Thunder over the tax line, though they have until the end of next season to shed salary and duck back under it, should they take that route.
3. Can Presti re-balance the roster?
Five of the Thunder’s top 10 players this past season belonged in the frontcourt. Adams and Kanter can’t play meaningful minutes alongside each other in the league’s new pace-and-space environment. Gibson and Domantas Sabonis arguably are best-suited to play the five in small ball lineups while Jerami Grant has the potential to be a solid stretch four, but he’ll need frontcourt minutes to hone his skills.
The team needs help on the wing and in the backcourt behind Westbrook. Simply letting Gibson walk to free up frontcourt minutes will only address half of the problem. The franchise must find a way to turn its frontcourt depth into wing and backcourt talent.
4. Who will be traded?
A Kanter trade seems likely. During the team’s playoff series against the Rockets, coach Billy Donovan appeared to mouth “can’t play Kanter” to his assistant coach after the former No. 3 overall pick failed to executive a defensive assignment. The big man thrived offensively this season, but he struggled mightily on the defensive end (0nly three centers were worse than Kanter on that end of the floor, per ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus).
Centers who don’t protect the rim don’t have a ton of value in the modern NBA, and Kanter’s inflated salary only compounds the issue of finding a decent return on the trade market. However, getting back a rotation player at a position of need may be enough for the franchise and at least one team should see that price tag as a reasonable haul for the 24-year-old center.
5. Can the Thunder sign Westbrook to another extension?
The most important objective for the Thunder heading into the offseason is getting Westbrook to sign on the dotted line for the second consecutive year. Normally, teams cannot sign players to extensions in back-to-back seasons. However, the Thunder can lock up Westbrook for an additional five seasons via a provision in the new CBA that was specifically designed for him and James Harden.
The new agreement will grandfather the pair of MVP candidates into the pool of players eligible for the new designated player extension since their respective teams wouldn’t have known this tool would be available when they signed the players to extensions last summer.
Westbrook declared that Oklahoma City is where he wants to be and the team has said it hopes to keep him there. The UCLA product could reach free agency in 2018 should he remain on his current deal. That means this offseason is essentially the only one the franchise has to upgrade the talent around him before he has an opportunity to flirt with other clubs.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Russell Westbrook ($28,530,608)
- Steven Adams ($22,471,911)
- Victor Oladipo ($21,000,000)
- Enes Kanter ($17,884,176)
- Alex Abrines ($5,725,000)
- Kyle Singler ($4,666,500)
- Doug McDermott ($3,294,994)
- Domantas Sabonis ($2,550,000)
- Ronnie Price ($2,442,455) — Waived
- Josh Huestis ($1,471,382)
- Total: $110,037,026
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Jerami Grant ($1,524,305)
- Total: $1,524,305
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Semaj Christon ($1,312,611)1
- Total: $1,312,611
Restricted Free Agents
- Andre Roberson ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,457,681 cap hold)
- Total: $5,457,681
Cap Holds
- Taj Gibson ($13,425,000)
- Nick Collison ($7,125,000)
- Norris Cole ($1,471,382)
- No. 21 overall pick ($1,785,000)
- Total: $23,806,382
Trade Exceptions
- Ersan Ilyasova TPE ($4,936,529) — Expires 11/1/17
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: –$12,453,256
- With nine guaranteed salaries, the cap hold for their first-rounder, and two empty roster charges, the Thunder are carrying $113,453,256 in projected salary for 2017/18, and that’s assuming they renounce all their free agents, including Roberson. They won’t have cap room.
Footnotes:
- Christon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 8.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.