After talking to agents and executives around the league, Jake Fischer of The Stein Line states in his latest Substack column (subscription required) that there will likely be few, if any, rookie scale extensions reached before Monday’s deadline that carry an average annual value larger than $25MM. Fischer adds that teams have become more cautious about handing out large deals because of the restrictions that accompany the first and second aprons.
He points to Hawks guard Dyson Daniels as someone who should be in good position to match the five-year, $150MM extensions that teammate Jalen Johnson and Orlando guard Jalen Suggs both received last offseason. However, sources tell Fischer that Atlanta’s front office is willing to let Daniels test restricted free agency next year if he won’t sign on the team’s terms.
Fischer notes that Daniels’ agent, Daniel Moldovan, also represents Josh Giddey, who just went through a months-long standoff with the Bulls in restricted free agency. Fischer adds that Daniels would likely be entering a more robust market for restricted free agents than the one that Giddey faced.
Fischer offers more information on players eligible for rookie scale extensions:
- Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren haven’t made much progress in their extension talks with the Pistons, sources tell Fischer. He suggests that management might be extra cautious with Ivey following arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this week. Ivey’s camp expects an active market if he does hit free agency, even though he’s also coming off a fractured left tibia that cost him most of last season. Sources describe negotiations with Duren as “tepid” so far, per Fischer, who adds that his representatives are asking for a new deal worth much more than $30MM in AAV and are also optimistic about his prospects on the open market.
- The Rockets are hoping to sign Tari Eason to an extension that’s “significantly lower” than the five-year, $122MM deal that Jabari Smith Jr. accepted this summer, according to Fischer. The outcome of the Eason negotiations will affect what Houston is willing to give Kevin Durant in his extension talks, Fischer adds. With Amen Thompson expected to receive a max extension next offseason, Houston is being careful about not overloading its salary commitments. Fischer talked to capologists who said they would recommend limiting any Durant offers to $80MM over two years. As Fischer notes, it’s not certain that Durant would remain with the Rockets at that number.
- It seems unlikely that Christian Braun will reach an extension agreement with the Nuggets, Fischer states. Sources tell him that Denver is already sending signals that it doesn’t want to become a taxpaying team next season, while Braun and his camp are hoping for a deal at $25MM in average annual value. The Nuggets are also holding extension talks with Peyton Watson, but Fischer suggests a new deal with him may not happen unless they can’t agree to terms with Braun.
- Fischer views Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe as the most likely remaining candidate to hammer out an extension before the deadline. Rival teams that Fischer contacted expect Portland to give Sharpe something in the neighborhood of $100MM over four years.
- Suns center Mark Williams, Jazz center Walker Kessler and Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin all appear headed for restricted free agency, Fischer states. Of the three, Fischer points to Mathurin as the most likely to change teams because of Indiana’s reluctance to add more long-term salary.
I get the concerns the Nuggets have, but they may be making a mistake here. Braun looks like he’s taken another step in the preseason and if that does materialize his asking price is going to shoot up. I’d try for something slightly below that 25MM mark and figure out the rest later.
Good for the Nuggets. Braun’s a fine player but there are loads of good SG’s and Jokic just makes him. He’s an overrated defender who has trouble staying in front of quick ballhandlers, and his elite skill is full court finishing, which is not hard to find.
They could easily let him go and find someone else for Jokic to play with.
The situation has little to do with Braun as a player and everything to do with Denver’s owners not willing to pay tax.
They’ve been doing it for years, upgrading the squad using picks to trade for players on lower wages, or leaving the team short in important positions.
As if his 15.4 ppg as a 4th option including 39% 3 pt shooting/66.5 TS% isn’t elite?
I doubt many would agree that the Nuggets’ cheapness is “good”.
Looks like there could be plenty of RFAs again next summer. Which will be interesting, because none of the good ones are going to get offer sheets. And folks saying stuff like “Kuminga/Grimes/Giddey are dоnkеys, nobody signed them to an offer sheet because nobody wants them, they have no market” will see that it has nothing to do with players not being wanted around the league or “having no market” or whatever. “Kuminga is just an empty stat guy, his point against Minnesota don’t matter. But Mathurin, that’s a different story. He contributed to Indiana’s run, he has proven himself!” Are you one of the people who thought that way? Then wait and watch Mathurin not get any offer sheets next summer, just like Kuminga. Watch and remember my words.
Because Mathurin, Braun, Ivey, Duren, Daniels, Sharpe, Eason, Kessler will not get offer sheets from anyone if they get to RFA. That mechanism is dead. Not working. For one simple reason – everybody knows that the team they are with will match any offer that is not ridiculous.
At most, there will be one offer sheet to somebody like Kessler, which will certainly be matched by Utah. But none of those guys will switch teams via that mechanism.
“Fischer adds that Daniels would likely be entering a more robust market for restricted free agents than the one that Giddey faced.” – Absolute bollоcks. Rubbіsh take. Fischer could have used 10 minutes of his time to check the list of RFA over the last 6 summers. Over that period, there have been 36 first-rounders who became restricted, and plenty of teams around the league with cap space. And only 2 of those got an offer sheet – Ayton and Thybulle. So, since 2020, we are averaging 1 offer sheet per 3 years and one offer sheet per 18 players. Is that the “robust market” Fischer is talking about?
Teams that will have cap space next summer, like Washington, LAL, Chicago and others, will use it to sign real free agents, by real I mean UFAs (as opposed to fake free agents which RFAs are de facto), to extend their own guys, to absorb bad contracts in trades in return for picks, etc.
That’s how they will use their cap space, and won’t waste time chasing mirages by giving out offer sheets.
If the technicalities of it all were different and the offer sheet process happened before free agency opens, it could be a different story. Not radically different, but different. Let’s say, the league had a 7-day RFA window until July, 7, and then the normal free agency started after that. In that case, a team with cap space could give out offer sheets as a pure act of opportunism without any direct negative consequences. Say, Washington, they could give Duren an offer sheet to see what happens. In an unlikely scenario that it wouldn’t get matched, they would create value for themselves and sign a player. Way more likely is that Detroit would match, like 98-99% chance they would. But that wouldn’t hurt Washington in any way because they would still be able to use their cap space freely when normal free agency opens later.
But if they give an offer sheet to Duren under current rules, they will lock up their cap at the time when real UFAs get signed. And that way they could miss out on signing Grimes or Porzingis or whoever will be there that they plan to sign. They also won’t be able to align and participate in multi-team trades to take on salary because again, their cap will be locked up. It may not sound like much, but the technicalities are hugely important here.
Not to mention that offer sheets are perceived as a harassment tool, and a team actively giving them out would be seen as a black sheep. Other teams won’t want to do business with them. Imagine Washington give Duren, Daniels, Eason offer sheets, forcing Detroit, Atlanta and Houston to match contracts they don’t want to have. That would effectively ruin the relationship between the FOs, and Washington wouldn’t be able to make any trades with those guys in the near future. Washington wouldn’t be able to insert themselves in multi-team trades to cleverly use exceptions, etc.
It’s not about teams being reluctant to offer sheets as means of harassing, but managers looking to stay “good” with everyone in the league.
I think that’s what happened with Nets and Kuminga, they could have offered 30ish mil annually but Marks doesn’t want to alienate with Warriors ownership and management.
This is tendency seen in other sports with system like this in America, and even outside of sports businesses on high level are doing this too.
If Warriors had to match much higher salary, they wouldn’t be able to offer Horford more than a minimum, and I’m not sure he would take it.
@Peter
Kuminga’s likely going to be traded by the deadline, and the acquiring team has the option on the 2nd year.
We will see if they decide to decline it.