After missing the postseason for the first time in 23 years in 2019/20, the Spurs didn’t exactly bounce back with a vengeance in ’20/21. Their 33-39 record was just a half-game improvement over the year before, and while San Antonio earned a spot in the play-in tournament, the team was quickly eliminated by Memphis, missing the playoffs two years in a row for the first time in franchise history.
San Antonio’s struggles can be traced back to an inability to maximize the return for All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard in 2018. That wasn’t entirely the team’s fault – Leonard’s injury situation and his discontent with the organization hurt his value – but it was a problem.
The Spurs haven’t been bad enough in recent years to land high in the lottery and potentially draft a new franchise player. As a result, the club that went from David Robinson to Tim Duncan to Leonard now lacks a cornerstone for its next phase.
Still, given where the Spurs have drafted in recent years, there’s plenty of promising young talent on the roster, including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Devin Vassell, so it’s not as if the cupboards are totally bare going forward. San Antonio still has one of the league’s better developmental programs, and as long as those youngsters continue to improve, it shouldn’t be much longer until the team is back in the postseason.
The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:
With the exception of the occasional major move – such as the Leonard trade in 2018 or the signing of LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015 – the Spurs can rarely be counted on for action-packed offseasons that feature a bunch of roster turnover. Their general preference is to identify guys they like and then to keep re-signing them, favoring continuity and development over constantly seeking out potential upgrades.
Having said that, if the Spurs do want to significantly turn over their roster, this would be the time to do it. Aldridge departed earlier this year, highly-paid veterans DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills are among the team’s five unrestricted free agents, and the club currently has less than $57MM in guaranteed salary on its books for 2021/22.
While the opportunity is there, I wouldn’t expect the Spurs to renounce all their vets to create the cap room necessary to make a run for a top restricted free agent such as John Collins. They could surprise me, but it just doesn’t feel like their M.O.
There are rumors that DeRozan may look to sign elsewhere, however. In that case, perhaps the Spurs focus on re-signing Mills and Gay. If the team can bring back that duo for a combined 2021/22 cap hit of about $25-30MM, it would still leave enough room to make a play at a second- or third-tier free agent or two.
Lauri Markkanen would be an intriguing target as a reclamation project, since the former lottery pick has seen his value dip a little in Chicago. Josh Hart and Bruce Brown also strike me as Spurs-type players.
However, all of those guys are restricted free agents, so San Antonio would either have to be aggressive with an offer sheet, work out a sign-and-trade, or hope that the player’s current team is only lukewarm on bringing him back. That may be the case with Markkanen and the Bulls, but I imagine the Pelicans and Nets will prioritize Hart and Brown, respectively.
Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter, JaMychal Green, and Kelly Oubre are among the unrestricted free agents I could envision as fits for the Spurs. Justise Winslow might also be an intriguing target if the Grizzlies don’t pick up his $13MM option.
Of course, the big question looming over the Spurs is how much longer Gregg Popovich will patrol the team’s sidelines. A year or two ago, there was speculation that the NBA’s longest-tenured head coach would retire after coaching Team USA at the 2020 Olympics. The Tokyo games have since been pushed back a year and there’s still no indication that Popovich plans to call it career once they conclude. But he’s 72 years old, so it’s hard to imagine his run as the Spurs’ coach will last too much longer.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Derrick White ($15,678,571)
- Dejounte Murray ($15,428,880)
- Jakob Poeltl ($8,750,000)
- Lonnie Walker ($4,447,896)
- Devin Vassell ($4,235,160)
- Luka Samanic ($2,959,080)
- Keldon Johnson ($2,145,720)
- Tre Jones ($1,517,981)
- DeMarre Carroll ($1,242,340) — Bought out.
- Drew Eubanks ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. 1
- Total: $56,905,628
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- DaQuan Jeffries ($1,701,593) 2
- Total: $1,701,593
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Drew Eubanks ($1,262,796) 1
- Total: $1,262,796
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 12 overall pick ($3,946,800)
- No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,946,800
Extension-Eligible Players
- Lonnie Walker (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
DeMar DeRozan ($39,344,970): Bird rights 4- Rudy Gay ($21,750,000): Bird rights
- Patty Mills ($20,303,571): Bird rights
- Marco Belinelli ($7,600,000): Early Bird rights 5
- Trey Lyles ($7,150,000): Early Bird rights
- Dante Cunningham ($2,984,400): Non-Bird rights 5
- Nikola Milutinov ($2,096,880) 6
- Gorgui Dieng ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Joffrey Lauvergne ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 5
- David Lee ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 5
- Donatas Motiejunas ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 5
- Quincy Pondexter ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 5
- Total: $109,575,711
Offseason Cap Outlook
Taking into account the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Spurs have about $61MM committed to nine roster spots, putting them in position to open up a serious chunk of cap room. However, they also have nearly double that amount in options, non-guaranteed salary, and free agent cap holds, meaning they could very well operate as an over-the-cap team to start the offseason.
The Spurs’ decision on DeRozan may dictate whether or not they dip below the cap. If he re-signs at a salary close to this season’s $27.7MM figure, staying over the cap probably makes sense, but if he walks for nothing, the club might as well take advantage of its financial flexibility.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Room exception: $4,910,000 7
Footnotes
- Eubanks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 20.
- Jeffries will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Spurs for two seasons, Weatherspoon is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- This is a projected value. DeRozan’s cap hit will be either the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service or $41,609,963 (whichever is lesser).
- The cap holds for these players remain on the Spurs’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- The 26th overall pick in 2015, Milutinov has yet to sign his rookie scale contract. His cap hold will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2021/22.
- This is a projected value. If the Spurs operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Before this season the Spurs had never missed the playoffs two years in a row.
As deep as the Western conference is these days, that streak become three years.
Still will be shorter than Houston’s upcoming streak.
Do you have any positive NBA talk in you???
Rah rah sis boom bah, go team! Better?
And how is pointing out the fact that San Antonio had never missed the playoffs two years straight before 2021 supposed to be negative?
I say positive things all the time, but since almost everyone here thinks my team is a steaming pile of garbage I get labeled a homer.
What I’m supposed to do here to survive as a Rockets fan?
Not being a tool would go a long way towards people not hating you.
I think the spurs should either let derozan walk or figure out a sign and trade for him if at all possible. I just think that with him the spurs are stuck in the Bermuda triangle between getting a good lottery pick and being competitive. And it’s hard to get out of that middle ground of irrelevancy, which is why teams like the magic, kings, pistons have been only good for so long. Pistons and magic realized it and finally dumped all their older players. And while I think their is value in leadership from older veterans, if just being stuck at 9-10 in the conference standing is the result than that should be avoided no matter the cost. So I personally wouldn’t mind keeping Patty mills as the veteran presence and team leader. But I think the spurs need to get worse to get better, and something needs to change. Just my thought. Obviously they could draft someone really great at like 12-16 like Kawhi was. But I think it’s rare. Plus Kawhi had time to hone his skill while the big 3 were stil carrying the team before he had to step up, bc he wasn’t great to start. Idk. I hope we make some changes. Stick with the young players and ride out the year. Might just be what is needed for Dejounte to step into the star role, or any one of the young players.
So go tank
Or no tank
Agreed and will also note DeRozan really doesn’t make sense in SA from either vantage point. Why would SA want to watch him age on a new contract? And why would he want to spend his last productive years on a team with the ceiling of an 8 seed?
Same for Gay & Mills too, and 25-yos Lyles & Batesdiop have not shined, so may as well play the good young depth players they have and tank.
Gay is still average, Mills still a handful, but they won’t be contending, and the playoff streak is over.
Drafting at #12 offers mostly wings but they have done that the last two years. The two best-paid guys are points. They could afford anyone!
I’m aggressive if the Spurs during the short window between now and start of Free Agency in seeking a DDR sign and trade for Ben Simmons. Spurs have a number of decent assets they can attach to make it worth Philly’s time.
Hart and Brown are getting matched, and they’ll have to overpay for Lauri but he should be gettable.
But who knows what/if the Bulls are thinking.
I have to strongly disagree with the choice to keep Patty, Rudy or Demar. Rudy Gay makes 15-16 million a year to do absolutely nothing and for that price we could have another product player if not borderline a star. Patty was shooting the worse he ever has this season and looks washed up on the court he to takes away valuable cap space. DeMar on the team eliminates good ball movement and productive offense because he so ball dominant. This is proof why thats a bad idea. (I watched every spurs game this season besides 2 trust me)
Let them all walk, blow it up and draft some more talent. Sign some harden vets to get the young team over the hump when the timings right for championship push.
Pop’s a great coach but the talent level in this teams isn’t going anywhere.
San Antonio probably—no, they do owe it to Pop to let him coach however long he wants. But it’s hard to envision them blowing it up completely with him on the sidelines. Yet it’s even harder to imagine them signing the level of players that would make them much beyond first round fodder over this summer.
Which puts them in an interesting place. I don’t think any of their young guys have much star potential, but they’re solid. The Simmons possibility is interesting. That’s probably the best “soft rebuild” option—have Simmons work with their shooting coaches and have him soak up Pop’s wisdom for a season or two. But while I think DDR makes some sense for Philly, I don’t know if Morey won’t get a more appealing offer.
I think the worst of all options long term would be to bring the band back together on long terms deals, achieve mediocrity next season, then be left with a dumpster fire in 2023 when Pop retires. At the very least I would want to keep my cap sheet open for the post-Pop era.