2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings
The Kings are searching for answers. This year, they extended their playoff drought to a 15th straight season, tied with the Clippers (1977-91) for the longest in NBA history. They also failed to move up in the lottery, meaning that – barring a trade – they will be picking ninth in this year’s draft. To make matters worse, Marvin Bagley, the team’s highest draft pick since 1989, came under fire this week for liking a tweet about getting him out of Sacramento.
It’s not all bad news, however. Point guard De’Aaron Fox took a star leap this season, averaging 25+ points per game for the first time in his career and becoming the driving force of the offense. Combo guard Tyrese Haliburton, taken with the 12th pick in last year’s
draft, was a revelation, averaging 13 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting above 40% from three in 30 MPG. His stellar play earned him a berth on the All-Rookie First Team. Richaun Holmes also had a breakout year, cementing himself as a bona fide NBA starting center. The team also committed to bringing back head coach Luke Walton after a strong showing of support from the players.
While the Kings finished the season under .500 once again, their winning percentage (.431) was tied for the second-highest since 2008. While that may be a modest accomplishment, it does at least give reasons for optimism, though it wasn’t a step up from last season and the Western Conference is only getting stronger around them.
The Kings’ Offseason Plan:
The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this off-season, whether in the draft, free agency, or trade.
As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bagley.
Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would may have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.
Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox/Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.
Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings may not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.
The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none are going to significantly change the trajectory of the team.
Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in him long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, though the fit is questionable and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.
The other player who may figure into trade talks is guard Delon Wright. Wright is owed $8.5MM and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- De’Aaron Fox ($28,103,550) 1
- Buddy Hield ($22,768,890)
- Harrison Barnes ($20,284,091)
- Marvin Bagley III ($11,312,114)
- Delon Wright ($8,526,316)
- Tyrese Haliburton ($4,023,600)
- Jahmi’us Ramsey ($1,517,981)
- Robert Woodard ($1,517,981)
- Total: $98,054,523
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Damian Jones ($1,977,011) 2
- Justin James ($1,782,621) 3
- Chimezie Metu ($1,762,796) 4
- Total: $5,522,428
Restricted Free Agents
- Terence Davis ($1,897,476 qualifying offer / $1,897,476 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $1,897,476
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
- No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $4,603,320
Extension-Eligible Players
- Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
- Harrison Barnes (veteran)
- Justin James (veteran)
- Delon Wright (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Richaun Holmes ($6,506,955): Early Bird rights- Maurice Harkless ($4,347,600): Non-Bird rights
- Hassan Whiteside ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Corey Brewer ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 6
- Total: $14,192,911
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100MM in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be impacted by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.
They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they may need to make a trade to create space.
With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing year, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6’7″ wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.
Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.
Two-way player King only played six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6’7″ and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
- Trade exception: $3,600,000
- Trade exception: $2,009,019
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
- James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
- Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after August 9.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Southwest Notes: Mosley, Mavs Front Office, Kidd, Vaughn, Pelicans
Assistant coach Jamahl Mosley is expected to leave the Mavericks, writes Tim Cato of the Athletic. Mosley is a respected coach around the league, and had a particularly close relationship with star Luka Doncic. Mosley had expected to receive serious consideration for the head coach position, but felt that failed to materialize as the team zeroed in on its preferred candidate, Jason Kidd. He will likely be an in-demand assistant coach, even if a head coaching position isn’t offered to him this summer.
In the same article, Cato examines the Mavericks’ front office power structure. The most striking thing, Cato writes, is that despite the overhaul, the structure feels exactly the same. The organization is surrounding new head of basketball operations Nico Harrison with former Mavericks players familiar with the team’s dealings, such as special advisor Dirk Nowitzki, vice president of basketball operations Michael Finley, and head coach Kidd, who is expected to bring on J.J. Barea and possibly Jason Terry as assistant coaches. Team owner Mark Cuban is expected to continue acting as the ultimate decision-maker.
We have more from around the Southwest Division:
- Kidd’s contract with the Mavericks will be for four years, tweets Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. The exact amount of the contract is still unclear, but this deal will run until Doncic is 26 years old, a critical period in the All NBA guard’s career.
- Jacque Vaughn is gaining traction to become the head coach of the Pelicans, as Brian Windhorst reported this week. William Guillory of The Athletic examines how Vaughn – a current Brooklyn assistant and former Orlando head coach – could fit in New Orleans, as well as potential question marks for the coach, including the Magic’s lack of success with him at the helm, as well as the question of if he would continue to utilize star Zion Williamson as a point forward or rely more on the traditional guards.
- Next season will mark the third coach in three years for the Pelicans, and Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Times-Picayune writes that it could be president of basketball operations David Griffin‘s last chance to get it right for a while. It will be crucial for Griffin to examine where and why Alvin Gentry and Stan Van Gundy couldn’t succeed in New Orleans, or else the team will be forced into another reset that it cannot afford. “The real issue moving forward is finding somebody who you’re in lockstep with,” Griffin said. “And that includes ownership as well. That has to be something we’re moving with together and moving with the same spirit and same energy. I don’t know how else to put it.”
Rockets Notes: No. 2 Pick, Mann, Front Office, Offseason
What the Rockets do with the second overall pick in the draft will go a large way in dictating the team’s subsequent moves, writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. The pick is the highest Houston has had since it drafted Yao Ming first overall in 2002, and Feigen writes that the team has a responsibility to put whatever player it selects in a position to succeed.
If the Rockets take Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green, that could mean finding a way to move Eric Gordon and/or John Wall to open up more playing time next to revelation Kevin Porter Jr. If they take Evan Mobley, it could mean not re-signing Kelly Olynyk. But moving on from those incumbent players isn’t mandatory. Feigen suggests that playing alongside veterans like Gordon, Olynyk and Wall could help the rookies ease into the NBA a learn under players who have been in big moments before.
We have more from the Rockets:
- Florida guard Tre Mann‘s first NBA workout was with the Rockets, tweets Kelly Iko of The Athletic. The Rockets have two picks at 23 and 24 that could be in Mann’s draft range. The sweet-shooting point guard said he thought he’d fit well on the team.
- The Rockets have moved quickly to remake their front office following the departure of Daryl Morey, Jonathan Feigen writes, and now the pressure will be on to produce results. Part of what makes this brain trust unique, according to Feigen, is the lack of titles or an established hierarchy among the staff outside of the GM and assistant GM positions, especially among the scouts. For GM Rafael Stone, that’s an intentional decision. “It’s more about adding a different perspective or different thought process,” Stone said. “If you are trying to solve a complicated puzzle, which we absolutely are, you put together people from disparate backgrounds who’ve been successful in disparate paths because hopefully you’ll find a lot of intelligent people and maybe they can solve different puzzles in different ways.”
- ESPN’s Bobby Marks breaks down the offseason outlook for the Rockets. This includes Stone opening the doorway to the possibility of trading out of the number two spot. “It’s not necessarily that you’re looking to do that,” says Stone, “but you shouldn’t foreclose any option.” Marks also identifies the paths Stone has taken to rebuild the roster following the trades of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, including – most notably – their sign-and-trade deal for Christian Wood and acquisition of Porter.
Olympic Notes: Popovich, Lillard, Durant, Love, Grant, Broekhoff, Schröder
The respect that players have for longtime Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was instrumental in getting star players to commit to Team USA for the Summer Olympics, Brian Windhorst of ESPN reports. Popovich reached out to players but wasn’t overbearing and that helped gain their trust, compared to prior years when Team USA dealt with dozens of decommitments.
After Damian Lillard and Kevin Durant pledged to participate, Popovich and manager director Jerry Colangelo worked with the two perennial All-Stars to recruit other players.
Windhorst also offered up some other interesting tidbits:
- Lillard was miffed when he missed the final cut before Team USA went to Spain for the World Cup in 2014. That played a role in his decision not to compete for the 2016 Olympic team. With Popovich now coaching the team and knowing this could be a last chance play in the Olympics, Lillard was eager to sign up this time.
- While Kevin Love‘s stature around the league has taken a big hit in recent years, Popovich valued his versatility and shooting. The Cavaliers were also very supportive of Love’s opportunity to play for Team USA.
- Pistons forward Jerami Grant was offered a spot after James Harden declined due his hamstring injury. Lillard and Durant vouched for Grant, which tipped the scales in his favor for one of the last roster spots.
- On the international front, former Mavericks forward Ryan Broekhoff has withdrawn from the Australian national team due to mental health issues, Sportando relays. “My mental health is something I have struggled with for a long time and I think it’s important for me to put my hand up and admit when things aren’t OK and that it is time to seek help,” he said in a statement.
- Lakers guard Dennis Schröder will not play for Germany during the Olympic qualifying tournament next week due to insurance issues, Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press tweets. Schroder will be entering free agency this summer.
Pacific Notes: Anschutz, Vogel, Leonard, Bagley
Philip Anschutz has agreed to sell his 27% stake in the Lakers, Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times confirms. Anschutz is the founder of AEG and owns the team’s arena, the Staples Center. Dodgers owners Mark Walter and Todd Boehly are making the purchase and the transaction values the Lakers at about $5 billion, Scott Soshnick of Sportico reports.
The sale of Anschutz’s stake in the Lakers, which is the largest outside of the Buss family, has to be approved by the league’s Board of Governors. Anschutz also owns of the NHL’s Kings and the MLS’ Galaxy. A major long term question is whether Anschutz’s first right to purchase, should the Buss family ever want to sell its majority stake, will transfer to the two buyers, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN tweets.
According to the Sportico report, the buyers will get those transfer rights.
We have more from the Pacific Division:
- Frank Vogel is entering the final year of his three-year contract with the Lakers and some members of the organization are surprised he hasn’t already received an extension, according to Kyle Goon of the Orange County Register. Vogel could also face numerous staff changes since Jason Kidd, who has agreed to be the head coach of the Mavericks, could take several assistants with him to Dallas, Goon adds.
- Kawhi Leonard has not appeared in the Western Conference Finals and will miss Game 4 on Saturday due to a knee injury, but he’s been a major presence off the court, Kurt Helin of NBC Sports notes. Leonard and another injured Clippers player, Serge Ibaka, have been dispensing advice during games and practices. “Kawhi and Serge both have been great… Kawhi is just more, you know, everything: offense, defense, moving the basketball, how we can attack certain matchups, defensively how we can do different things on certain players,” Clippers coach Tyronn Lue said. “So, he’s always engaged on both ends.”
- Marvin Bagley III‘s future with the Kings remains up in the air and he’s facing a social media backlash from Sacramento fans, according to James Ham of NBC Sports Bay Area. Bagley liked a tweet that stated, “We’ve got to get @MB3Five outta Sac man.” After a negative reaction from fans, Bagley removed any mention of the Kings from his bio on both Twitter and Instagram. Sacramento has already picked up Bagley’s $11.3MM option for next season but he’ll be eligible for free agency next summer.
Kulboka Weighing Two-Way Option With Hornets?
A draft-and-stash prospect is reportedly considering a move to the NBA.
Lithuanian forward Arnoldas Kulboka is expected to leave his European team and one of his options is a two-way contract with the Hornets, Ennio Terrasi Borghesan of Sportando relays, via Chema de Lucas.
Kulboka officially re-signed with Spanish club Bilbao Basket for two more seasons last June, so he apparently had an opt-out clause. The 23-year-old Kulboka was selected by the Hornets with the No. 55 overall pick in the 2018 draft. His agent stated prior to that contract agreement with Bilbao that his client would have made the jump to the NBA this past season if not for the pandemic.
Kulboka, who stands 6’10”, averaged 9.2 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 22.8 MPG while appearing in 33 contests during the 2020/21 European season. He made 42.5% of his 3-point attempts, which increases his appeal. He was a member of the Hornets’ summer league teams in 2018 and 2o19.
The Hornets ended this season with guards Nate Darling and Grant Riller on two-way deals.
Southeast Notes: Simmons, Wizards, Todd, Magic Draft
There aren’t a whole lot of trade scenarios that would work for the Wizards to acquire Ben Simmons, according to Fred Katz of The Athletic. They wouldn’t swap Bradley Beal for the Sixers guard unless Beal suddenly wants out. Dealing Russell Westbrook would have involve a third team, since he doesn’t seem like a good fit with the Sixers’ roster. The Wizards could also piece together other salaries with packages featuring Davis Bertans or Rui Hachimura but Philadelphia would more likely seek top-level impact players for Simmons.
We have more from the Southeast Division:
- The Wizards have scheduled a predraft workout with Isaiah Todd, according to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. Todd played on the G League Ignite team, averaging 12.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG in 15 games. He’s currently ranked No. 52 overall and No. 11 among power forward on ESPN’s Best Available list.
- The Magic‘s best chance of moving up in the draft could be the Rockets’ pick at No. 2, Josh Robbins of The Athletic speculates. Orlando holds the No. 5 and No. 8 picks and might entice the Rockets to trade down if the Magic are willing to take on Eric Gordon‘s contract.
- Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman is in no rush to hire a new head coach, Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel writes. It has been nearly three weeks since the team announced it had parted ways with Steve Clifford.
Atlantic Notes: Dinwiddie, Fizdale, Raptors’ Lottery Pick
Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie is not only looking for a more lucrative contract but also may prioritize a return to Los Angeles, where he grew up, according to Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News.
Dinwiddie is declining his $12.3MM player option in order to test the free agent market despite missing most of this season due to a partial ACL tear. Dinwiddie seems unlikely to return to the Nets and would prefer to join one of the L.A. teams, with Winfield noting he rehabbed his injury in California. However, due to his likely contract demands, Dinwiddie could only join the Lakers or Clippers in a sign-and-trade scenario.
We have more from the Atlantic Division:
- David Fizdale dealt with mental health issues during and after his final season with the Knicks, he said in an interview with Jesse Washington of The Undefeated. Fizdale said he was filled with self-doubt after getting fired during the 2019/20 season. “I thought the lowest point was during the losses,” Fizdale said. “But it was after, when you go through the whole part of, ‘What could I have done different? Did I even deserve this job?’ You think like you were an imposter. You felt like you got over on these people. You’re a fraud.”
- The Raptors emerged from the lottery with the No. 4 pick. Blake Murphy of The Athletic takes a closer look at what the Raptors might have to give up to move into the top three while also speculating on what assets they could acquire if they’re willing to move down to the 5-7 range.
- Agreeing to an extension with president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri, selecting top big man Evan Mobley with the No. 4 pick, and re-signing Kyle Lowry to a two-year deal. Those would be some of the components for an ideal offseason for the Raptors, Eric Koreen of The Athletic writes.
Chauncey Billups Emerges As Blazers’ Choice For Head Coach
Clippers assistant Chauncey Billups has emerged as the Trail Blazers’ choice to be their next head coach and the two parties are looking to finalize a deal, Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic tweet.
Spurs assistant Becky Hammon and Nets assistant Mike D’Antoni were the other finalists for the job previously held by Terry Stotts.
Trail Blazers owner Jody Allen reportedly pushed for Hammon while president of basketball operations Neil Olshey preferred Billups. Both of them came in for second interviews this week. Hammon became the first female finalist for an NBA head coaching position.
For Billups, it’ll be his first head coaching job, assuming the two sides finalize an agreement. The 2004 Finals MVP for the Pistons, the organization in which he acquired the nickname “Mr. Big Shot,” joined Tyronn Lue‘s staff this season after a stint with ESPN. Billups, 44, retired as a player after the 2013/14 season.
Billups, who has frequently been cited as a frontrunner for the job, received an endorsement from point guard Damian Lillard following Stotts’ exit. He also interviewed for the Celtics’ job, which went to Nets assistant Ime Udoka.
The Wizards, Magic and Pelicans are still in the process of hiring new head coaches.
Central Notes: Cavs’ Lottery Pick, Buford, Diallo, Carlisle
The Cavaliers will not just limit their interview and workout list for the No. 3 pick to USC’s Evan Mobley, the G League Ignite’s Jalen Green and Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Those players are widely considered the next three prospects beyond Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, who is only expected to visit Detroit
Duke’s Jalen Johnson, who is ranked No. 9 by ESPN, was scheduled to meet with the Cavaliers on Friday. The Cavs are also expected to look at the G League Ignite’s Jonathan Kuminga (rated No. 5) and Florida State’s Scottie Barnes (No. 6). The latter met with Cleveland’s brass on Thursday, Fedor adds.
We have more from the Central Division:
- Chase Buford is leaving his post as the Wisconsin Herd’s head coach in order to become the head coach of the Sydney Kings in Australia’s NBL, according to a team press release. “We are excited for Chase to pursue this opportunity with one of the best clubs in Australia,” said Herd GM Dave Dean. Buford, 32, led the Bucks’ G League team to a league-best 33-10 record before the 2019/20 season was suspended due to the pandemic.
- Along with mulling what to do with the top pick, the Pistons must decide how high they’re willing to go on restricted free agent Hamidou Diallo, Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) writes. Diallo is projected to command somewhere in the neighborhood of the mid-level exception, which the Pistons could easily match. Marks also explores the team’s other pending decisions and its cap situation.
- With his long track record and a four-year contract, Rick Carlisle will command respect in the Pacers’ locker room, J. Michael of the Indianapolis Star (subscription required) writes.