Following a head coaching change and a second half surge in 2020/21, the Hawks made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, increasing expectations for the 2021/22 season.
The team struggled to meet those expectations early in the year and ended up nearly replicating the pattern of their previous season. In ’20/21, Atlanta followed up a 14-20 start with a 27-11 finish. In ’21/22, a 17-25 start preceded a 26-14 finish.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, the Eastern Conference was far more competitive in 2022 than it was a year earlier, and even after winning a pair of play-in games, they ran into a less favorable first-round playoff matchup this time around. The Heat’s defense forced Trae Young into perhaps the worst offensive stretch of his NBA career, and Atlanta didn’t have enough other weapons to make it a competitive series, falling in five games.
Now, the front office will have to figure out way to upgrade the capped-out roster and raise the Hawks’ ceiling going forward.
The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:
Many NBA owners and executives will only speak in platitudes when discussing potential offseason moves, talking about wanting to re-sign their own free agents and build continuity. Hawks owner Tony Ressler and president of basketball operations Travis Schlenk have taken an entirely different approach so far this spring, telling reporters and radio hosts that changes are coming to this roster and not everyone will be back.
While that doesn’t mean the Hawks won’t try to re-sign any of their free agents, it seems like a safe bet that the agents for Delon Wright, Lou Williams, Gorgui Dieng, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and Kevin Knox are prepared to seek out new homes for their clients.
Beyond that, even several players who are under contract for next season shouldn’t feel too comfortable that they’ll be back in Atlanta. Young is believed to be the only Hawk who is truly untouchable in trade discussions, though the team presumably won’t be eager to move players like John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu, or De’Andre Hunter.
Still, that leaves a handful of intriguing trade candidates who could be on the table if the Hawks look to make a play for a star or simply want to make personnel changes. Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Kevin Huerter are all under contract for multiple seasons and are earning between $14-19MM — none are great bargains, but they’re far from albatrosses.
The appeal of Danilo Gallinari‘s $5MM partial guarantee is negated by the fact that the Hawks would almost certainly have to increase it to make him a useful trade chip, but even if his $21.45MM salary is fully guaranteed, his expiring contract makes him a logical salary-matching piece in a number of hypothetical trades.
So what will the Hawks be looking for in trades? Rather than addressing a specific position, improving the team’s defense figures to be the number one priority. That could mean pursuing a rim-protecting center like Rudy Gobert, who would be an upgrade over Capela. It could mean going after a two-way wing like Jerami Grant, who could help slow down the Kevin Durants and Jimmy Butlers of the Eastern Conference. Or it could mean seeking out a guard like Malcolm Brogdon, who can play off the ball and help shield Young from the most challenging defensive assignments.
Even though the Hawks project to be well over the cap, free agency also shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential path for a significant upgrade. Atlanta has enough flexibility below the luxury tax line and enough expendable contracts to realistically be a player for top sign-and-trade candidates.
However, some of the most noteworthy free agents who have been linked to Atlanta, including Zach LaVine, wouldn’t help much on the defensive end, and many – like LaVine and Deandre Ayton – would come with base year compensation complications due to their modest 2021/22 salaries.
The mid-level exception will be a more realistic tool for the Hawks to land a rotation player on the free agent market. Versatile defenders like Gary Payton II, Bruce Brown, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Anderson, P.J. Tucker, and Nicolas Batum would be realistic targets using the MLE.
Finally, the No. 16 pick in this month’s draft would be another asset for the Hawks to use on the trade market if they’re not in love with the idea of bringing in a rookie who may not be ready to play rotation minutes right away. If they do keep the pick, they could again prioritize defensive versatility and take a long look at players like Jeremy Sochan and/or Tari Eason, assuming they’re still on the board.
Atlanta’s best candidate for an offseason extension is Hunter, who has battled injuries in his first three NBA seasons and didn’t take a real step forward in 2021/22, but has flashed intriguing upside on both ends of the court when healthy — he put up 35 points and 11 rebounds in Game 5 vs. the Heat. If the Hawks can get him locked in at a team-friendly rate (perhaps a deal similar to Huerter’s), they should jump at the opportunity, but otherwise it may be prudent to see what he does in year four and wait for restricted free agency.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
Trae Young ($36,600,000) 1- John Collins ($23,500,000)
- Clint Capela ($18,706,896)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic ($18,000,000)
- Kevin Huerter ($14,508,929)
- De’Andre Hunter ($9,835,881)
- Onyeka Okongwu ($6,395,160)
- Danilo Gallinari ($5,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Rest of salary is noted in non-guaranteed section below. 2
- Jalen Johnson ($2,792,640)
- Chaundee Brown (two-way)
- Total: $135,339,506
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Danilo Gallinari ($16,450,000) 2
- Total: $16,450,000
Restricted Free Agents
- Kevin Knox ($7,228,448 qualifying offer / $17,537,934 cap hold): Bird rights
- Skylar Mays ($2,011,516 qualifying offer / $2,011,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $19,549,450
Two-Way Free Agents
- Sharife Cooper ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $1,616,044
Draft Picks
- No. 16 overall pick ($3,488,760)
- No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,488,760
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic (veteran)
- Danilo Gallinari (veteran)
- De’Andre Hunter (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Delon Wright ($16,200,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Lou Williams ($9,500,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Gorgui Dieng ($4,800,000 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $32,311,516
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Hawks will be well over the cap and are approaching luxury tax territory, even if they part ways with Gallinari. If we assume Atlanta waives Gallinari and stretches his partial guarantee across three years, keeps its first-round pick, and lets all its free agents go, the team would be on the hook for about $135.5MM for nine players.
The luxury tax line projects to be at $149MM, so the Hawks could fill out their roster and remain below the tax. But they wouldn’t be able to make full use of the mid-level exception without becoming a taxpayer, unless they shed some salary elsewhere.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 3
- Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 3
- Trade exception: $1,782,621
- Trade exception: $1,669,178
Footnotes
- Young’s salary will be worth 30% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
- Gallinari’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
- These are projected values. If the Hawks approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
I’ve said it a bunch of times & it remains true, the current Hawks squad is the best we’ve had since the team moved here. There’s def opportunity to improve on many fronts tho…. Getting tougher is something we def gotta do to win titles. We don’t lack for talent anywhere on the court but we lack for toughness/physicality pretty much everywhere on the court. OKC needs shooting & would obv prefer younger guys that match the Shai/Dort/Giddey timeline. I see win/win written all over a DFavors, Kenrich Williams, future 1st for Kevin Huerter deal. I love Kev, he’s been 1 of my favorites since we got him. But him & Trae are both always gonna be minus defenders & that forever drag on our team defense is too much to be trying to constantly overcome. I’ve said before on here that Favors is a Cleveland Ave legend like Young Thug. Only difference is Favors won’t be facing RICO charges any time soon. Even tho he’s overpaid he’s a perfect replacement for Dieng as our 3rd 5 & could be a good backup 5 if we end up moving Capela (we should def be thinking about it). Plus he brings that toughness that we desperately need. Kenrich would as well. He’s the perfect replacement for Gallo imo. Obv not the shooter that Gallo is but even after losing Kev & Gallo we’d still have more than enough shooting…. Clint Capela has been GREAT for us, especially his 1st yr (shoulda been all-nba). But I’d rather sell high than watch him miss crucial games & lose effectiveness as his athletic fades. Clint has always been an extremely athletic guy for his size. That more than anything is what makes him elite. He’s not nearly as dominant on the boards or as a finisher above the rim without his next level jumping ability/quickness for his size… Also it looks to me like Onyeka is ready. He wasn’t great in the playoffs in Clints absence. He held his own vs Bam tho & has looked ready for a bigger role for awhile now… a whole bunch of teams would love a guy like Clint, especially at his price. We def don’t HAVE to move him but if we did, Jerami Grant for him straight up could work. I’d rather send him West, specifically to Houston for EJ Gordon & Al Sengun. Obv Houston messed up by trading Clint in the 1st place. In this deal they get to make a similar mistake with Sengun…. I’d def try to sign Dre to an extension this summer too. We traded alot to move up to 4 to draft him. We traded the only guy on our team that was similar to him. And he’s looked like a keeper pretty much the whole time. We need the boy & he’s only gonna get more expensive if we wait… resigning Delon Wright should be a high priority as well. He’s 1 of our best defenders & 1 of the best overall backup pgs in the league imo… wuth our #16 overall pick I got us taking MarJon Beauchamp.
He’s 1 of my favorites in this class, fits our needs perfectly & I badly want him to be a Hawk. If he’s gone I wouldn’t mind us picking either of the Baylor forwards or Jovic among others… Trae/Bogdan/Dre/John/Onyeka, with Delon, Sharife, Gordon, Beauchamp, Jalen, Kenrich, Jovic, Favors & Sengun off pine = #FutureDynasty
Paragraphs would help but it’s actually some decent analysis.
Thunder have 3 firsts. They’re going to draft another guard with #12. No desire to give up picks (esp future firsts) for better guys they can draft who will also be cheaper short term.
Nobody they draft is gonna be as good a 3pt shooter as Huerter. Giving up a mid-1st rd pick 2,3yrs from now, along with a fringe rotation forward for a young guard, locked up on a 4yr deal that solves their biggest weakness is sorta no brainer. Especially when you can dump your worst contract in the process. You say OKC is gonna draft a guard at 12. OKC has enough extremely young guards. They got Shai, Maledon, Giddey, Tre Mann & Ty Jerome. Drafting another teenage guard makes zero sense. They need shooting badly & on this deal they’d get it without even giving up much. They have more future draft picks than any nba team has ever had. You think they’re gonna make all those themselves & tank until the sun burns out?
Lol @ no brainer comment. The thunder will dump Favors at some point but not at the cost of bringing in KH. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my crow but pick #2 is Chet and pick #12 will be another guard. Maledon and Jerome will be cut or sent to G league soon.
You see bringing in Huerter as a cost? You sound like Donald Sterling or Ted Stepien. It takes competent players to win nba games. Bringing in shooters is a necessity. It seems like you’re ok with them just continuing to be the youngest/worst team in the league until Shai either retires or demands a trade lol. If you don’t believe in Jerome or Maledon that’s cool but to just replace them with even younger guys just makes no sense
I would agree with most of this, but I can’t stand watching Hunter on the court. He was supposed to be a 3&D, but he really isn’t very good at either and the Hawks have given him enough time. To top it all off, he is worse than Huerter in almost every metric.
Below metrics for 2022, as it’s really the only year Hunter has played most of the games
oRtg (higher is better) – Huerter 112 vs Hunter 106 , Huerter makes quick decisions on offense to move the ball whereas Hunter basically catches it and stops for a beer before figuring out what to do.
dRtg (higher is better) – 117 vs 117 … neither is good, but both are saddled with having to spend a bunch of minutes o the floor with Trae and Collins, which would kill ANYONE’s dRtg
VORP – Value of replacement player (higher is better. This says it all, as Hunter isn’t even close to league average. I had to type out NEG just to make certain it didn’t read as a hyphen.
– Huerter +0.4
– Hunter NEG 0.8
Adjusted Shooting (higher is better). Just tells you how atrociously bad Hunter is at what was supposed to be one of his key skills. Again, Hunter is way below league average.
– Huerter +5.8
– Hunter NEG 24.6
I really don’t see why you keep touting him. He looks discombobulated and confused on the floor more often than not, and ball movement stops with him when he catches it. Huerter makes much better decisions and helps with the flow of offense while not giving up anything on defense.
Absolutely agree with the rest of the post though. The take on Capela and Onyeka especially was spot on, though I would prefer to move Collins and keep the other two. They can dunk gimmee’s from Trae just as well as JC can, they play better defense, cost less, and bring energy on every possession.
I couldn’t disagree more about Dre. 1st off he’s literally our best defender on the entire team. Clint & Delon are basically all on same level as Dre as defenders imo. All very good but not quite all league level great defenders. Dre & Kev aren’t nearly in the same league as defenders & this is just very obvious from watching pretty much any possession they’ve been on the court the past few yrs. Kev obv way more durable but Dre is longer, stronger, more aggressive, slightly better instincts, better hands, more athletic. Dre defends forwards & guards better than Kev. Opposing teams pick on Kev relentlessly for a reason.. Me personally I never saw Dre as just a 3&D guy. I mean he’s a top5 draft pick, he should be able to provide more than 3&D. He’s lethal from midrange (much like the guy who I see as his ceiling, Kawhi Leonard). And when given chances he’s often shown the ability to create off the dribble as well. Dre isn’t a bad 3pt shooter at all either. He’s 36% for his career & 38% last yr puts him well above league average… I agree Kev is way more comfortable in the offense now & is a lil better with the ball in his hands. But Kev is a guard lol I mean as the starting 2 he’s supposed to be a better ballhandler/facilitator than the 3. But also I feel like Dre hasn’t gotten enough touches or been featured nearly as much as he should. With more opportunity to shine, Dre would definitely shine more. I mean it’s extremely obv to me that Dre is a better basketball player than Kev. Just check their track record. Even with his injury history watch how Dre gets a bigger contract than Kev got. Dre is more versatile & his signature skill (guarding the opposing teams best wing) is harder to find than 3pt shooting which is Kevs best skill.. as far as John/Clint/Onyeka. John is the only 1 of these guys that can shoot. Not only can he shoot but he’s a big time scorer from anywhere on the floor. Much like Dre he hasn’t been featured much the past few seasons. But having a guy as offensively gifted as John in the frontcourt is also fairly rare. He’s not cheap but again there’s a reason he costs more than anyone on the team besides Trae. And he brings as much energy on every possession as anyone else in the league
Just another long dump full of homery unsupported assertions. Waste.
The article was right: The EC got better and Ressler is impaient.
Luke provided a good list of defensive FAs.
The Pistons are after a pick or two/young player with promise; I’m sure there will be zero interest in acquiring Clint.
Hunter should be made to go to restrictive route. I don’t think Collins should be traded. I think Bojo is the one that should be Traded. If you can get Brogdon for him and pick do it. Trae needs to get his D on par with Steph Curry or the Hawks will never get anywhere. At least now the have a good GM and ownership. Ownership has said they would pay the tax so we shall see.
Hawks already got to the ECF with Trae playing his usual below average defense. Not sure what makes you think Steph Curry is someone to emulate defensively lol he’s literally 1 of the worst defenders in the league. He’s a good deal bigger than Trae tho. Trae’s not gonna get any taller or longer. I’m not holding my breath on him becoming a good or even average defender. We gotta surround him with plus defenders similar to how GSW did with Steph. Trading Monta (another below average defender) made GSW a much much better team. Same would be true for us trading Kev. Bogdan is tougher, stronger & better defensively compared to Kev. He’s def the 1 to keep of those 2 guys
I did read that. To summarize: Sank thinks Curry is one of the worst defenders in the league.
Why read his endless posts, with more room for gems like that?
Cutty could always rebound, and now he takes on playing defense too, even in the post. There’s a lot of nervous energy out there in the finals, but Curry is composed and lettting nothing go.
Memory is always a tricky thing … but I’m pretty sure I (and others on this board) predicted this capped out near future for the Hawks last summer, to ire of some who’ll I’ll refrain from naming here…
Anyway, this is the classic double-edged sword of drafting well. You build a young core that’s extremely underpaid for a few years and things look like they’ll never stop improving.
Then one day you wake up and say “Wait, we’re an MLE from the luxury tax and we made the PLAY-IN last year?”
At least for Atlanta they have Trae, who’s a legitimate franchise player still in his early 20s. That helps.
Figuring out which mix of players works best around him without extending this cap sheet far into the tax will be a greater challenge though.
Exactly that.