As our list of traded 2023 first-round picks shows, a dozen teams have dealt their first-rounders in next year’s draft (either with protections or without) and another three clubs have surrendered swap rights to their picks. That means more than half of 2023’s first-rounders could theoretically be changing hands, with more potentially on the move as a result of in-season trades.
In actuality, due to protections on several of those traded picks or the fact that certain swap rights won’t be exercised, several of the first-rounders that could change hands won’t do so. It’s still too early to say with certainty which picks will be on the move and which will stay put, but with the NBA season at approximately the one-third mark, we’re starting to get a clearer picture.
Here’s an early look at the traded 2023 first-round picks:
Picks likely to be protected
- Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
- Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs
- Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
The Pistons and Hornets currently have the NBA’s two worst records and their picks have the heaviest protections of any traded 2023 first-rounders. In other words, it’s a pretty safe bet neither will go anywhere.
Assuming those picks fall in their protected range as expected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.
The Wizards‘ recent losing streak, meanwhile, has dropped them down to the NBA’s sixth-worst record. They’ll keep their first-rounder if they don’t make the playoffs, and it looks like earning a postseason berth will be an uphill battle at this point. If they keep their 2023 first-round pick, the Wizards will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-12 protection.
It’s also worth mentioning in this section that the Rockets have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Nets, while the Thunder have the right to swap first-round picks with the Clippers. However, neither of those swap rights appears likely to be exercised based on how those four teams have performed this season.
The most intriguing picks that could change hands
- Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights
- Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
- Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz
- Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
The Pelicans‘ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers doesn’t look quite as valuable today as it did at the start of the season when L.A. was off to a 2-10 start and at the bottom of the NBA’s standings, but there’s still a very real chance that pick will be in the lottery.
If the season ended today, the Lakers would be tied for seventh in the lottery standings, while the Pelicans would have either the No. 27 or No. 28 overall pick, resulting in a tantalizing swap for New Orleans. For what it’s worth, the Pelicans had the seventh-best lottery odds in 2019 when they won the No. 1 overall pick that was eventually used on Zion Williamson.
The Bulls, meanwhile, currently have the NBA’s ninth-worst record and could end up sending a second lottery pick to the Magic as a result of the Nikola Vucevic trade from two seasons ago. The first lottery pick Orlando received as part of that deal became Franz Wagner in 2021.
It seems safe to assume that the Timberwolves and Mavericks are better than they’ve played so far, but if the season ended today, Minnesota would be on the outside of the play-in picture in the West, while Dallas would have to win two play-in games to even make the postseason. It’s not inconceivable that one or both of those traded first-rounders could end up in the lottery if the second half doesn’t go well for the Wolves and Mavs. That would be good news for the Jazz and Knicks.
Later first-round picks likely to change hands
- Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls.
- Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
- Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
- Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.
- Bucks‘ pick (unprotected) to Rockets.
- Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
If the season ended today, none of these picks would land in the top 20, with the Trail Blazers‘ and Sixers‘ first-rounders tied for No. 21 and No. 22. The Nets‘, Cavaliers‘, and Nuggets‘ picks would be 24th through 26th, respectively, while the Bucks‘ and Celtics‘ selections would be the last two in the first round.
That outlook could change, of course. Portland, for instance, is hardly considered a juggernaut and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Blazers ultimately had to go through the play-in tournament to even earn a playoff spot. But with fairly heavy protections on their traded first-rounder, there’s no chance they’ll surrender a lottery pick to the Bulls in 2023.
One point of clarification here is that the Nets will have their choice of swapping their own pick for the Sixers’ selection, with the Jazz receiving the less valuable of the two first-rounders. If the season ended today, that means Brooklyn would move up to Philadelphia’s spot in the draft (No. 21 or 22), with Utah getting the Nets’ pick at No. 24.
Knicks plan to trade Fournier to Lakers for Beverley and Nunn.
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