After getting back to .500 (41-41) in 2023/24 for the first time in four years following a full-scale rebuild, the Rockets were expected to take another step forward in '24/25. After all, six of their top eight players in minutes per game in '23/24 were still on rookie scale contracts, so it seemed safe to assume those players hadn't yet reached their respective ceilings.
Still, there were relatively modest expectations for just how big a step forward Houston would be capable of taking after a pretty quiet offseason that involved no real roster additions besides No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard. Oddsmakers set their over/under at 43.5 wins, and when we asked our readers last September to make their predictions, a slight majority took the "under" on that figure.
Given that context, it's hard to call the Rockets '24/25 season anything but a huge success for the franchise. Houston won 52 games, its highest single-season total since the James Harden years, and held the No. 2 seed in a competitive Western Conference for much of the season, including from March 19 onward.
Fourth-year big man Alperen Sengun followed up his breakout '23/24 campaign by earning his first All-Star nod, while second-year wing Amen Thompson displayed star potential as a two-way player, boosting his scoring total to 14.1 points per game on 55.7% shooting and emerging as one of the NBA's best defensive players -- he claimed a spot on the All-NBA first team and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, receiving nine first-place votes.
Notably, the Rockets managed to make a significant move up the standings without major breakout seasons from any of their other young players besides Thompson. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason all had good years, but their numbers were in the neighborhood of ones they'd posted in previous seasons. Meanwhile, Cam Whitmore's role was inconsistent and Sheppard had a hard time getting off the bench and cracking Houston's crowded rotation.
In other words, there's reason to believe that all of those players have room to continue improving, especially since they're are still so young -- Eason, who turned 24 last month, is the oldest of the bunch. And if some of them still have another level to reach, it stands to reason that the same is true of the Rockets as a whole.
As we enter the 2025 offseason, the big question in Houston is just how much confidence the front office has in the ability of those young players to take the next steps necessary to turn the team into a legitimate contender. Because, despite their second-place finish in the West, the Rockets weren't a legitimate contender in 2024/25 -- they had trouble generating half-court offense in the postseason and were eliminated by the seventh-seeded Warriors in round one.
The Rockets repeatedly insisted ahead of the 2025 trade deadline that they no interest in breaking up their young core to add win-now help. Will that stance change now that general manager Rafael Stone and his group have had another year - and a seven-game playoff series - to assess this roster? If so, what sort of player will they be targeting on the trade market and which young players and/or draft picks would they be willing to give up to get that player?
The Rockets' Offseason Plan
The two superstars most frequently cited as potential trade candidates this summer are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant. The Rockets have been linked to both players. However, Antetokounmpo has yet to actually request a trade and the Bucks aren't planning to exploring dealing him unless that happens. The Durant sweepstakes, on the other hand, appear to be heating up, with Houston among the teams engaged in discussions with the Suns.
Luke- excellent, as always.
Perhaps you implied it, but have you considered the possibility that Houston has already determined now is the time to make a big trade because:
1) Amen Thompson’s ascension has pushed Eason and Smith too far down the bench for either of them to increase their value as long as they play for the Rockets. Thompson, Brooks, and Whitmore simply leave too few minutes. That means Eason’s and Smith’s trade value is higher now than it will be next season.
2) Houston can’t afford to extend either of Smith or Eason in any case given the players’ likely value as free agents in 1 year. While the Rockets might not want to pay Smith more than 4yrs/$60M and Eason more than 4yrs/$55M, IMO, these players are sure there are other teams that will go significantly higher.
IMO, Houston is highly motivated to move at least one, if not both, of Eason and Smith’s immediately. Houston could package Green, Eason, and Smith for Giannis. Or, for KD, they could package Green along with either Smith or Eason.
I’m w this line of thinking
The Rfa and pray route hasn’t worked out so well w Green
Crunch. I agree on Green. His future is shaky. Houston should sell high.
Of Green, Smith, and Eason, I like Eason the most by far. And I think there might be a team that offers him 4 years at $22M/yr, maybe more. Amen Thompson has made him an afterthought, though.
Did you guys actually watch a lot of rockets games? Or are you just commenting to comment? And I mean actually watch a lot of games, not just see highlights or catch a game here and there. Because based on what you’re saying, not only does it sound like you didn’t watch, you also sound like you have zero insight into how the rockets brass are thinking/what this owner is willing to spend.
Yes and Jalen geeen is overoayed and overr hyped and it was an absolute nightmare watching him last year
Based on what you’re saying ( nothing really ) what makes Smith so great ? Hou benched him this year and his mins have gone downward in his last 4 years ?
Did you watch ?
DannyW- That’s a whole lot of negativity to say nothing specific.
Are you saying Jalen Green is more consistent than what Luke says, above? Or, do you think Jabari Smith and Tari Eason are going to be starters, and not role players, this year? Is Amen Thompson not going to start and play heavy minutes?
As far as “what this owner is willing to spend”, well, there’s the CBA and the fact that the same guy, Tillman Fertitta, has owned the team for 8 years. Is there something else you want to share?
As far as watching Rockets games closely, I watched every minute of 5 regular season and 7 playoff games against the Warriors this season. Jeremy Green played like a future superstar in 2 of them, was ok in 2 others, and stunk in about 5 of them. Inconsistent. Just like Ime Udoka says about him in public. Smith and Eason were playing less by the end of the season, and were non-factors in the playoffs.
What are we missing?