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2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Chicago Bulls

January 30th, 2018 at 8:01pm CST by Austin Kent

After navigating the drama of last season and coming out in a solid position, the Bulls will need to do everything they can to keep the momentum of their rebuild rolling.

The club has shown glimpses of being a competent squad at times this season, with a number of intriguing assets already on the roster. However, nobody would bat an eye if the Bulls end up bottoming out with a solid pick in the lottery.

Much of Chicago’s long-term success will come down to the eventual growth of players like Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, but don’t think that the forthcoming free agency period won’t represent its own opportunities for progress.

Zach LaVine, SG, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $9.6MM deal in 2014
It’s hard to believe that LaVine is still so young considering how long he’s been in the league. This summer he’ll hit the market as a restricted free agent following a torn ACL that sidelined him for parts of each of the past two seasons. That’s good news and bad news for Chicago. Like the rest of us, the Bulls are intrigued by LaVine’s ceiling and an abbreviated campaign isn’t enough to base such an important long-term decision on. That said, other teams will have even less to base a substantial offer on. Given the uncertainty around his health and even his ability to be a primary offensive weapon, it’s hard to imagine the Bulls offering a max contract but they’ve got enough cap flexibility to make him their highest-paid player in 2018/19 and beyond, assuming they like what they see out of him down the stretch.

Nikola Mirotic, PF, 27 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $25MM deal in 2017
It’s hard to imagine that Mirotic will still be in a Bulls uniform come next summer considering that earlier today it seemed all but certain he would be traded to the Pelicans. Nonetheless, Mirotic’s contract situation will be similar wherever he lands up — his $12.5MM team option for 2018/19 is a bargain. Mirotic has shown that he’s capable of having a major impact on his ball club and any team that brings him on ahead of the February 8 trade deadline would be wise to lock him in at the discount. The open-ended contract buffs his value as a trade chip for Chicago but at the end of the day he’s a stretch four with no major red flags. That’s worth $12.5MM.

David Nwaba, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $1.4MM deal in 2017
The Bulls are rebuilding their roster from the ground up, so players like Nwaba hold appeal even if they don’t necessarily scream team cornerstone. Nwaba is a respected perimeter defender that gels well with other, more offensively inclined weapons on the roster. There may be a few teams interested in poaching him for the intangibles that he brings to the court, just as Jonathon Simmons had suitors last summer, but a dearth of league-wide cap space may keep things in check. My guess is that the Bulls would be happy to cut Nwaba a check similar to Simmons’ (~$6MM per) so long as it’s on a short-term deal.

Quincy Pondexter, SF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $14MM deal in 2014
It’s impressive enough that Pondexter is back on the court after his years-long battle with injuries and illness. This year, his first with the Bulls after coming over in a salary clearing trade from the Pelicans, is the last of a four-year contract extension that’s basically felt like 12. It’s hard to envision Pondexter back in Chicago once the deal expires, but he could stick around the league if he can prove to other teams that he’s healthy enough to play the role of veteran gunner. He’s certainly earned the opportunity, at least.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Kris Dunn Didn't Travel With Bulls To Portland

January 30th, 2018 at 6:15pm CST by Austin Kent

The Bulls didn’t expect Kris Dunn back in the lineup when they played Portland on Wednesday but they did expect him to travel with the team. That is no longer the case, K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune writes.

Pelicans’ Deal For Nikola Mirotic Falls Apart For Now

January 30th, 2018 at 1:40pm CST by Luke Adams

1:40pm: In his full report on the story, Wojnarowski suggests that Mirotic’s 2018/19 option is the primary source of the stalemate. Mirotic appears unwilling to sign off on the deal if his option isn’t exercised, and the Pelicans are reluctant to commit to that option due to concerns about next season’s payroll.

12:59pm: Goodwill classifies the trade as having hit a “snag,” while Johnson says the two teams remain in “advanced discussions” (Twitter links). So while nothing is officially done yet, it sounds like the deal isn’t dead either.

12:48pm: The Pelicans and Bulls had a deal in place for Mirotic, but it has fallen apart for now, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). ESPN’s Bobby Marks notes (via Twitter) that the Pelicans’ proximity to a hard cap prevented the team from trading Asik straight up for Mirotic.

If the Pelicans include another player for cap purposes, the deal could still happen, tweets K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune. However, New Orleans hadn’t yet agreed to pick up Mirotic’s team option, so a trade would also require his OK, assuming the Pelicans don’t relent and agree to exercise that option.

12:40pm: The Pelicans and Bulls have reached an agreement on a trade that would send power forward Nikola Mirotic to New Orleans, according to Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago (Twitter link). Goodwill reports that the Bulls will receive Omer Asik and a first-round pick in exchange for Mirotic.

There have been no further reports or official announcements confirming the move so far, but it’s possible the two teams are working out details related to Mirotic’s contract. His deal gives him the ability to veto trades unless his 2018/19 team option is exercised, though there was a belief that he’d give his approval to a deal if the Bulls found an offer they liked.

Mirotic, who has been the subject of trade rumors throughout the 2017/18 campaign, was sidelined with facial injuries to start the season after being punched by teammate Bobby Portis during an altercation in practice. Mirotic’s camp reportedly issued an ultimatum in the fall in an effort to get the Bulls to trade either Mirotic or Portis, but the power forwards were willing to bury the hatchet and coexist on the court when Mirotic got healthy.

Since returning to action, Mirotic has enjoyed the most productive year of his NBA career, averaging 16.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG to go along with a .474/.429/.823 shooting line. All of those numbers are career highs. Despite his solid play and the club’s improved record, Mirotic was still said to prefer a trade out of Chicago.

As the Bulls explored the market for Mirotic, the Jazz and Pistons were cited most frequently as potential trade partners. However, Detroit landed a bigger fish on Monday, acquiring Blake Griffin from the Clippers, and Utah was reportedly unwilling to include a first-round pick in an offer for the stretch four.

The Bulls, who were said to be seeking a first-rounder for Mirotic all along, appear poised to get that pick from the Pelicans, though they’ll have to take on an unwanted contract in the process. Asik, a former Bull, is earning about $10.6MM this season, with a guaranteed salary worth $11.29MM in 2018/19. The veteran center has one more year on his deal in 2019/20, but it’s only partially guaranteed for $3MM. By comparison, Mirotic will earn $12.5MM this season and has a $12.5MM team option for ’18/19.

While the Bulls did well to find a first-round pick for a player whose value looked to be on the decline just a few months ago, it’s worth questioning why the team is willing to take on a toxic contract like Asik’s to make it happen, just seven months after selling a high second-round pick to the Warriors for a mere $3.5MM.

As for the Pelicans, they’re set to fill the lineup hole created when DeMarcus Cousins went down on Friday with a season-ending Achilles injury. The move signals that New Orleans still fully intends to make a playoff push this season, pairing Mirotic with Anthony Davis in the frontcourt. The club will also have the financial flexibility to retain Mirotic on his team option next season, since it’ll only cost about $1.2MM than Asik’s guaranteed salary would have. The ability to retain Mirotic is solid insurance in the event that Cousins leaves in free agency — if Cousins re-signs, it’d be interesting to see if the Pelicans would want to carry all three players on next year’s roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Two Teams Remain Below 2017/18 Salary Floor

January 29th, 2018 at 1:49pm CST by Luke Adams

When we discuss the NBA’s salary cap, we often refer to a team’s position in relation to either the cap itself or to the luxury tax line. For the 2017/18 season, the league has a salary cap of $99.093MM, with a luxury tax threshold of $119.266MM. With the exception of a few potential taxpayers and a few clubs with cap room, most team salaries fall between those two figures.

There’s at least one more key figure related to the salary cap though, and that’s the salary floor, as it’s informally known. The salary floor, which is 90% of the salary cap, is the minimum amount that a team must spend on its roster in a given NBA season. For 2017/18, that amount is $89,183,700.

While it’s possible that more teams will dip below the salary floor based on moves they make at the trade deadline, for now there are just two teams below that line, according to Basketball Insiders’ salary data. Those teams are the Mavericks ($85,669,472) and the Bulls ($83,223,828).

Both the Mavs and Bulls are actually functioning as over-the-cap teams at the moment, since they have various mid-level and trade exceptions that they haven’t renounced — added to their respective team salaries, those exceptions take them over the $99.093MM cap line. Still, that exception money isn’t technically being spent on any players right now, so it doesn’t count toward each club’s minimum salary.

Under the NBA’s old Collective Bargaining Agreement, it was fairly easy for teams below the salary floor to game the system. At the deadline, a team could simply acquire a highly-paid player whose cap hit would take the team over the salary floor, despite the fact that the club would only owe that player a prorated portion of his salary.

For instance, a year ago, the Sixers took on Andrew Bogut‘s $11MM+ salary as part of the deal that sent Nerlens Noel to Dallas. Bogut’s full $11MM+ cap hit counted for minimum team salary purposes for Philadelphia, but the Mavs had already paid a majority of the center’s salary, since the trade happened with less than two months left in the season. In other words, despite only having to pay about $3MM that was left on Bogut’s contract, the Sixers were able to artificially put an extra $8MM toward the calculation of their minimum team salary.

The league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement closed that loophole. Now, players traded or acquired during the season will only count toward a team’s minimum salary for the amount that they were paid by that team. So the Bulls can’t simply acquire a player earning $7MM to get above the salary floor — if 40% of the season remains, that player would only count for $2.8MM toward Chicago’s minimum team salary, with the other $4.2MM applying to his old club’s minimum team salary.

With those new rules in mind, it will be interesting to see how the Bulls and Mavericks approach the trade deadline. In order to reach the salary floor based on the new guidelines, each team would have to use nearly all of its remaining cap room. While Chicago and Dallas should be willing to take advantage of that cap space to take on a contract or two if it means acquiring some extra assets in the process, that sort of deal may not be worth it if it adds major long-term money to the books. In that case, it may simply make more sense for the teams to finish the year below the salary floor, then make up the difference at season’s end by paying out the shortfall to their players.

And-Ones: Pistons, Hood, Muscala, Referees

January 29th, 2018 at 12:41pm CST by Luke Adams

The general consensus among various league executives and agents is that this season’s trade deadline won’t be overly eventful, writes Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer. While several smaller-scale deals could be made, the 2018 deadline figures to be short on blockbusters, particularly since many big trades already happened during the 2017 offseason.

Still, O’Connor’s trade deadline preview touches on many players and teams, mixing in a few new tidbits alongside news and rumors that have been previously reported. For instance, the Bulls and Pistons are among the teams believed to have interest in Jazz shooting guard Rodney Hood, according to O’Connor, who adds that virtually any Utah player not named Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell could be had in the right deal.

Among O’Connor’s other items of interest: Hawks big man Mike Muscala has generated “light interest” around the NBA, and execs across the league have vastly different opinions on Pistons trade candidate Stanley Johnson — some view him as a potential low-cost steal, while others are bearish on his value.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the NBA:

In his latest piece at NBA.com, TNT’s David Aldridge has 10 trade ideas that he believes would make sense for the various teams involved.
The NBA recently announced an initiative that the league hopes will improve the working relationship between its players and referees. Sam Amick of USA Today spoke to Monty McCutchen, a former top-rated ref who has joined the league office, about the five-part program.
In his latest look at trade rumors from around the NBA, Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post explores how the Pelicans and Thunder will try to fill the holes created in their rotations after season-ending injuries to DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Roberson, respectively.

Kris Dunn's Absence Felt By Bulls

January 28th, 2018 at 7:22pm CST by Austin Kent

The Bulls have seen their offense stagnate without Kris Dunn, Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago writes. The sophomore guard’s absence has really driven home the impact that he has on the team when healthy.

Kris Dunn Still Showing Concussion Symptoms

January 26th, 2018 at 5:57pm CST by Austin Kent

We wrote last week that Bulls guard Kris Dunn was out indefinitely after entering the NBA’s concussion protocol. This week, Nick Friedell of ESPN writes that the guard’s symptoms haven’t changed much. Dun, who still suffers headaches, will take the comeback process slow and be out a while longer.

Bulls' Rebuild Advancing Faster Than Expected?

January 26th, 2018 at 1:52pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Bulls completed the Jimmy Butler blockbuster last June and embarked on a full-scale rebuild, team management expected to end up with a top-five pick in the 2018 draft. However, the rebuild appears to be advancing faster than anticipated, reducing Chicago’s chances of securing a premium pick — the team is currently tied for seventh in our Reverse Standings. K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune examines how the Bulls’ relative success this season could affect the team’s long-term plans.

Seven Central Trade Candidates To Watch

January 26th, 2018 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and there’s no shortage of players around the league who could change teams. With that in mind, we’re taking a closer look at some of those top trade candidates, breaking them down by division.

While our focus will be primarily on teams expected to be sellers at the deadline, our lists may also include some players on contenders who could be used as trade chips when those teams look to make upgrades.

So far, we’ve covered the Southeast, Southwest, Atlantic, and Northwest. We’re examining the Central Division today, so let’s dive in and identify seven players who could be on the move on or before February 8…

Nikola Mirotic, PF (Bulls): A potential fit for the Jazz or Pistons, among other teams, Mirotic is a player whose trade potential we’ve discussed at length over the last couple months, so we won’t spend long revisiting it. Still, it’s worth reiterating what a terrific job Mirotic has done of boosting his own value this season — his 17.0 PPG, .475 FG%, .429 3PT%, and 6.5 RPG all blow away his previous career highs, albeit in a small sample (23 games). If he can continue playing anywhere close to that level, he’ll be a strong value at $12.5MM next season, and may even net the Bulls the first-round pick they’re reportedly seeking.
Robin Lopez, C (Bulls): Compared to Mirotic, Lopez has flown under the radar this season as a trade candidate, but he finds himself in a pretty similar situation (minus the preseason scrimmage dust-up). The veteran center has a $13.79MM cap hit for this season, followed by one more guaranteed year worth $14.36MM, so he offers a little team control without necessitating a long-term commitment. A solid defender in the middle, Lopez has been his usual productive self this season, averaging a career-high 12.9 PPG with a .536 FG%. If big-name centers like DeAndre Jordan and Hassan Whiteside stay put at the deadline, Lopez would be a decent Plan B or C for a club seeking a frontcourt upgrade.
Reggie Jackson, PG (Pistons): The Pistons reportedly explored potential Jackson trades last season, then did so again in the offseason. The veteran point guard hasn’t been mentioned in any legit trade rumors since opening night, but he’s still a subject of frequent speculation, since the Pistons are known to be surveying the trade market and Jackson’s contract makes him a logical outgoing piece in any major move. That contract – along with Jackson’s ongoing injury issues – will likely hurt his value until he shows he’s capable of once again being the sort of player he was during his first full season in Detroit (18.8 PPG, 6.2 APG). Nonetheless, there could be teams out there interested in an opportunity to buy low.
Stanley Johnson, SF (Pistons): The eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft, Johnson has provided solid defense during his three NBA seasons in Detroit, but doesn’t offer much on the other end of the court — for his career, he’s shooting just 36.4% from the floor and 29.7% from outside. Still just 21 years old, Johnson has tantalizing upside and will remain on his rookie contract through 2019. He’s averaging a career-high 27.4 minutes per game for the Pistons this season in 35 contests (23 starts), but the team has reportedly been willing to discuss him in trade talks. Assuming Detroit’s asking price isn’t unreasonable, Johnson should be a prime target for a few rebuilding teams, especially if any of those clubs believe they could improve the young forward’s jump shot.
Tristan Thompson, C (Cavaliers): The Cavaliers have several players who could be traded before this year’s deadline, and some are more likely to be dealt than Thompson. Channing Frye‘s expiring contract looks like a lock to be used in a trade, and there’s a good chance Iman Shumpert will be on the move as well. Still, those players are essentially just trade chips due to their cap figures — Thompson’s case is a bit more interesting, since he could actually provide multiyear value to a team in need of frontcourt help. Thompson is overpaid, with two years and $36MM left on his contract after this season, but he’s still only 26 years old and has more on-court value than a lot of bigs being paid at a similar rate (think Joakim Noah, Timofey Mozgov, Bismack Biyombo, and Ian Mahinmi). With Thompson playing fewer minutes than ever in Cleveland this season, his trade stock is at an all-time low, meaning the Cavs might even be willing to attach another asset or two in a deal.
John Henson, C (Bucks): When Greg Monroe headed to Phoenix earlier this season in the Eric Bledsoe deal, the Bucks were probably hoping that second-year big man Thon Maker would take on a more substantial role. Although Maker’s minutes have increased, his production has slipped, and Milwaukee has had to rely more on Henson at center. The 27-year-old has been up to the task, averaging a respectable 8.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 1.5 BPG with a career-best .587 FG%. Still, Henson’s skill-set is somewhat limited — he’s a decent piece off the bench, but he’s probably not the center the Bucks want on the court in crunch time in the playoffs. Henson’s $11.4MM cap hit makes him a candidate to be moved if the Bucks trade for another center, and while he has has two more guaranteed years left on his deal, his declining annual cap hits are at least a little team-friendly.
Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): A trade package that includes Henson and rookie scale players like D.J. Wilson and Rashad Vaughn is likely the Bucks‘ preference, but if the opportunity to land an impact big man arises and offering Parker is required to get it done, the team will have to seriously consider it. It’s been a long time since Milwaukee had Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton healthy and in the lineup at the same time, so the chance to get a look at that trio down the stretch this season may be too intriguing for the franchise to pass up. Still, Parker is expected to get much more expensive in a few months when he reaches restricted free agency, and the Bucks already have nearly $106MM on their books for 2018/19. If the team plans to re-sign the former second overall pick, perhaps moving another contract to stay out of the tax, then he’ll stay put at the deadline. But if there are any doubts about Parker’s long-term future in Milwaukee, gauging his value on the trade market makes sense.

Here are a few more potential Central trade candidates to monitor:

Jerian Grant, PG (Bulls): Grant still has a year and a half left on his rookie contract and the Bulls are reportedly gauging interest in him. Given his modest upside though, Grant is unlikely to bring back a significant return.
Luke Kennard, SG (Pistons): If the Pistons target a big fish, Kennard may have to be up for discussion. I don’t expect him to be moved though.
Matthew Dellavedova, G / Mirza Teletovic, PF (Bucks): While Henson is more likely to be the player included in a Bucks trade to make the salaries work, Dellavedova’s and Teletovic’s cap hits ($9.6MM and $10.5MM, respectively) could also be useful. It won’t be easy to move either contract though.
J.R. Smith, SG (Cavaliers): Smith has been a mess since signing a lucrative four-year contract in the 2016 offseason. Dumping his contract probably isn’t viable at this point for the Cavaliers, but I’m sure they’ll explore it.
Al Jefferson, F/C (Pacers): Another beneficiary of 2016’s league-wide spending spree, Jefferson is overpaid and underused. However, his $10MM salary for 2018/19 is only partially guaranteed for $4MM — that figure could be reduced further if he’s stretched, so he represents an expiring contract of sorts. The Pacers actually have a few contracts structured this way, but Jefferson is the only player on such a deal who isn’t a key rotation piece.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Kyler’s Latest: Nuggets, Whiteside, Mavs, Kings

January 25th, 2018 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Nuggets veterans Kenneth Faried and Emmanuel Mudiay could be had in trades at this year’s deadline, league sources tell Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, who suggests that the asking prices for those players likely wouldn’t be too high. I identified both Faried and Mudiay as potential trade candidates in my look at the Northwest on Wednesday.

If the Nuggets become a seller, Will Barton would also be a very intriguing trade chip, Kyler writes. However, that may be wishful thinking on the part of rival teams. Denver currently holds a playoff spot in the West and Barton has played the second-most minutes on the club, so it seems unlikely that the Nuggets would move him. Ultimately, the team may not end up trading anyone — Kyler suggests there’s a sense around the NBA that Denver isn’t looking to make a deal as aggressively as several other teams.

Here’s more from Kyler:

Sources close to the Heat acknowledge that teams have called about Hassan Whiteside, but say he probably won’t be made available at the deadline, writes Kyler.
The Mavericks “have had eyes” for Julius Randle, and would be a potential trade partner for L.A. if the Lakers move the big man. Kyler refers to Dallas a “open for business” in terms of trades.
According to Kyler, the prevailing thought around the NBA is that Willy Hernangomez is the player most likely to be moved by the Knicks, though he’s unlikely to net a significant return.
While many league insiders think Nikola Mirotic will end up in Utah, the Jazz don’t currently seem to be on board with sending a first-round pick to the Bulls, says Kyler.
Team sources tell Kyler that Garrett Temple and Zach Randolph are more likely than not to finish the season in Sacramento, but the Kings have been “very open and receptive” to trying to find their veterans new homes.
Although the Magic are viewed as a team that could be active at the deadline, the team is reluctant to take back long-term salary and would be happy to ride out the season and make changes in the summer if necessary, per Kyler.