Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: First-Round Playoff Series

After a pair of off-days and three days of play-in games, the 2025 NBA postseason is set to begin in earnest on Saturday, with four series getting underway today and the other four to tip off on Sunday.

The first-round matchups are as follows, along with the date/time of each Game 1:

Eastern Conference

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8): Sunday at 7:00 pm ET
  • Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7): Sunday at 3:30 pm ET
  • New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6): Saturday at 6:00 pm ET
  • Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5): Saturday at 1:00 pm ET

Western Conference

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8): Sunday at 1:00 pm ET
  • Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7): Sunday at 9:30 pm ET
  • Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6): Saturday at 8:30 pm ET
  • Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5): Saturday at 3:30 pm ET

In the view of oddsmakers, three of the eight first-round series are expected to be fairly one-sided. BetOnline.ag lists the Cavaliers (-4000), Celtics (-5000), and Thunder (-4000) as massive favorites to advance. The Knicks are also considered a good bet to get out of round one, having been listed as a -375 favorite over the Pistons.

The other four series are more interesting, with the higher seed not always viewed as the frontrunner. It’s the No. 7 Warriors (-170), for instance, who are favored over the No. 2 Rockets. The No. 3 Lakers (-190) and No. 4 Pacers (-160) have the edge in their respective series, but the No. 4 vs. 5 matchup in the West is considered virtually a toss-up, with the Clippers listed as narrow favorites (-120) over Denver (+100).

Ahead of a full slate of weekend playoff action, we want to know what you think.

Do you expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, or Thunder to stumble at all on their way to the second round?

Can the Rockets defend home court and their higher seed and knock off the veteran Warriors?

Who do you like between the Nuggets and Clippers in what’s considered the most evenly-matched first round series?

Are you anticipating any upsets in the other series and picking the Pistons, Bucks, and/or Timberwolves to advance to the conference semifinals?

Head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts on the first round!

Post-Play-In Update On 2025 Draft Order, Lottery Standings

As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2024/25 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2025 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…


Lottery teams

Because No. 10 Miami made it through the play-in tournament and earned a playoff spot in the East, the lottery teams (and odds) are slightly different from the ones we projected on Monday.

The Magic and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Cleveland, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Warriors and Grizzlies locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Houston and Oklahoma City, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows, per Tankathon:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
UTH 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
CHA 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
NOP 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2
PHI* 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
BKN 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.7 20.6 3.7 0.2
TOR 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0
SAS 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.0 6.8 0.4 >0
PHX* 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 50.7 28.3 3.5 0.1 >0
POR 3.7 4 4.4 4.8 63.4 18.5 1.2 >0 >0
DAL 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 77.6 13.5 0.5 >0
CHI 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 85.2 6.6 0.1
SAC* 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 96.6

(* Asterisks denote traded picks)

  • The Sixers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top six.
  • The Suns‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it’s outside the top 12.
  • The Hawks‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs.

Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Phoenix Suns / Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)
  2. Dallas Mavericks / Chicago Bulls (39-43)
  3. Sacramento Kings / Atlanta Hawks (40-42)

For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Suns, they’ll be the team that has about a 50/50 chance at the No. 9 pick in the lottery, whereas the Suns’ pick (controlled by the Rockets) would become far more likely to end up at No. 10 or 11.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as one another, though the clubs that win the tiebreakers will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13.


Traded first-round picks

The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.

Crucially, as we outlined earlier tonight, the fact that the Heat and Grizzlies made the playoffs on Friday means they’ll both give up their 2025 first-round picks, which were top-14 protected and will now land outside of that range. Miami will send the No. 15 overall pick to the Thunder, while Memphis will send either the No. 18, 19, or 20 pick (depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker) to the Wizards.

Because the Warriors made it through the play-in tournament earlier in the week, their pick at No. 18, 19, or 20 will be conveyed to the Heat.

The Spurs, who control the Hawks‘ first-round pick, will now have a second lottery selection in addition to their own by virtue of Atlanta losing two consecutive play-in games and missing the playoffs. That pick will almost certainly end up at No. 13 or 14, depending on the results of Monday’s tiebreaker. There’s a very slim chance it could move into the top four.

The Hawks lucked out on Friday when the Grizzlies defended their home court and eliminated Dallas from the postseason. If the Mavericks had pulled out a win, Memphis would’ve entered the lottery as the No. 14 team  in the lottery standings and could’ve pushed Sacramento up to No. 12, depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker. The Kings will send their pick to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 12, which is highly likely to happen now that Sacramento will be at either No. 13 or 14 entering the lottery.


Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order outside of the lottery will be as follows, pending tiebreakers:

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
  4. Washington Wizards (from Grizzlies) / Miami Heat (from Warriors) / Brooklyn Nets (from Bucks)
    • Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 18-20.
  5. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers) / Indiana Pacers / Orlando Magic (from Nuggets) / Atlanta Hawks (from Lakers)
    • Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 22-25.
  7. Brooklyn Nets (from Knicks)
  8. Brooklyn Nets (from Rockets)
  9. Boston Celtics
  10. Phoenix Suns (from Cavaliers)
  11. Los Angeles Clippers (from Thunder)

The random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted on Monday afternoon at 3:00 pm Eastern time, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press (Twitter link).

Once those tiebreakers are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2025 draft.

Poll: Who Will Win Friday’s Play-In Games?

The higher seed came out on top in each of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games on Tuesday, but the two lower seeds pulled off upsets in the No. 9 vs. 10 contests on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. 10 matchups on Friday to determine the final playoff teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences.

In the East, the No. 10 Heat will visit the No. 8 Hawks in a second consecutive battle of divisional rivals for Atlanta. The first of those matchups didn’t go well for the Hawks, who really struggled to get the ball in the basket against the NBA’s No. 2 defense on Tuesday in Orlando.

Trae Young (8-of-21), Zaccharie Risacher (2-of-10), and Caris LeVert (3-of-11) were among the players who had poor shooting nights vs. the Magic. Atlanta made a season-low four 3-pointers on the night and shot just 38.1% from the floor, including 19.0% from beyond the arc.

While the Heat weren’t quite as good defensively during the regular season as Orlando, they also ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating and played very well on that end of the court in Wednesday’s win over Chicago. The Bulls scored just 90 points on 39.8% shooting (27.0% on three-pointers). As the Hawks return home, they’ll need to figure out how to make more headway against the Heat’s defense than they did against the Magic’s.

The Hawks, who won 12 of their last 20 games of the regular season, had more momentum entering the play-in tournament than the Heat, who won just 12 of their last 33. Atlanta will also have home-court advantage on Friday.

But the two teams split their season series, and given how the first round of the play-in tournament played out, oddsmakers aren’t willing to give Atlanta the typical edge that would be awarded to the higher seed and home team. As I was writing this article, BetOnline.ag modified their betting line, which had been a pick-em, to make the Heat one-point favorites.

Over in the West, it’s the No. 8 Grizzlies hosting the No. 10 Mavericks in a battle of teams whose seasons have taken a nose-dive since the trade deadline. While Dallas was hammered by injuries and has been dealing with the fallout of the immensely unpopular Luka Doncic trade, Memphis has undergone a head coaching change and fell several spots in the standings.

The only reason the Grizzlies didn’t have the worst record (13-18) among all 10 Western Conference playoff/play-in teams between February 7 and the end of the regular season is because the Mavericks (12-18) were slightly worse.

Both teams were competitive in their first play-in matchups though. Memphis took the Warriors down to the wire in Golden State on Tuesday, while Dallas comfortably handled the Kings in Sacramento on Wednesday. There’s no shortage of talent on either roster, especially in the frontcourt, where Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. is a candidate for All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year honors, while Mavericks big man Anthony Davis would have been too if he’d played enough games to qualify.

The Mavs’ Achilles heel is in their backcourt, where star point guard Kyrie Irving is unavailable after going down in March with a season-ending ACL tear. Dallas actually went without a starting point guard vs. Sacramento, rolling with a jumbo lineup featuring Davis, Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson.

But former two-way player Brandon Williams, who was promoted to the 15-man roster in the final week of the season, showed why Dallas wanted him for the postseason. The undrafted point guard put up 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off the bench — the Mavs outscored Sacramento by 24 points during those minutes.

The Grizzlies’ own star point guard, Ja Morant, vowed to play in Friday’s do-or-die game, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. Morant sustained a sprained right ankle on Tuesday and clearly lost a step late in the game as he tried to play through that injury.

Home-court advantage could end up being a real factor here. The Grizzlies posted a 26-15 record in Memphis this season, while the Mavs went just 17-25 on the road. That’s likely a major reason why the oddsmakers at BetOnline currently have Memphis as the six-point favorite.

We want to know what you think. Will either the Heat or Mavericks become the first No. 10 seed since the play-in tournament was implemented in 2021 to earn a playoff spot? Or will the Hawks and Grizzlies defend their home courts and earn first-round series against Cleveland and Oklahoma City, respectively?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Wednesday Play-In Team Futures

Wednesday evening will see four teams in very different places fight for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences.

For the third straight season, the 39-43 Bulls will be squaring off against the 37-45 Heat in a play-in tournament game. This year, however, Chicago seems to have the edge. Per BetOnline stateside and BetVictor Canada, the Bulls are a marginal favorite as the home team.

Having moved on from former All-Star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago has been emphasizing more pace and ball movement. Star guards Coby White and Josh Giddey are propelling a fast-breaking offense that won 15 of its last 20 games to close out the 2024/25 regular season.

Rookie forward Matas Buzelis has benefited mightily from extended run to close out the year, while center Nikola Vucevic has adapted well to this speedier iteration of the team, operating as a trailing big who can be a release valve in these frenetic offensive sets.

Recently extended guard Lonzo Ball (wrist) and new trade acquisition Tre Jones (foot) will miss Wednesday’s game.

The No. 10 Heat, meanwhile, have been up and down since their blockbuster midseason Jimmy Butler trade. Armed with new additions Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, the club stumbled into a 10-game losing skid that was immediately followed by a six-game winning streak. Miami, which controls its own 2025 first-round pick as long as it lands in the top 14, might be happy to lose this matchup and reset with a quick rebuild through this year’s loaded draft lottery.

Chicago team president Arturas Karnisovas has been a frequent source of fan ire. He and ownership would probably like to see the young Bulls appear in their first playoff series since 2022. If Chicago does clinch a playoff appearance by beating Miami and then the Hawks in Friday’s final play-in game, would it prompt Karnisovas to shy away from the kinds of personnel changes he might otherwise pursue this summer, including a Vucevic trade for draft equity?

The Mavericks, on paper, are fielding the most talented squad out of the four Wednesday teams. Had nine-time All-Star guard Kyrie Irving not torn his ACL, Dallas could have been in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead, the 39-43 Mavs are clinging to the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed. With most of the rest of the roster healthy, the club will be riding a super-sized frontcourt lineup centered around 10-time All-Star big man Anthony Davis as its two-way fulcrum.

Dallas was constructed to win around Luka Doncic. After sending him to Los Angeles in exchange for Davis, three-and-D swing Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick, the front office was roundly criticized. Still, with Irving, Davis, and talented two-way wings and frontcourt pieces, a healthy version of this team looks like it could be a legitimate tough playoff out. Due to the timing of Irving’s recovery and Davis’ extensive injury history, it’s unclear when exactly that healthy iteration might next be available.

Meanwhile, Doncic has raised the Lakers’ ceiling. If Dallas misses the playoffs, will the club’s new ownership cohort look to penalize Nico Harrison for the most unpopular transaction in its franchise’s history? The Mavericks do have the highest upside of any of the teams in action on Wednesday, but that comes with a massive health caveat.

Dallas will be facing off against a mostly-healthy Kings club for the right to play the Grizzlies on Friday.

After Sacramento team owner Vivek Ranadive fired former Coach of the Year Mike Brown midway through the season, guard De’Aaron Fox pushed for – and received – a deal to the Spurs. The 40-42 Kings have since struggled with their newest impact player, LaVine, under interim head coach Doug Christie. Sacramento is loaded with ball stoppers – including LaVine, DeRozan, and Malik Monk – but has perhaps the more talented offense than Dallas sans Irving, thanks in large part to do-everything All-Star center Domantas Sabonis.

Should Sacramento get booted in this initial play-in tournament matchup, would Sabonis at least explore a trade out of town? A report in March suggested that the big man is expected to “seek clarity” this offseason on the Kings’ direction.

Just two years ago, during Brown’s inaugural season, the Kings finally seemed to have discovered a direction and identity. Now, the club is floundering in mediocrity. Massive changes — perhaps starting with Christie and Sabonis — could be underway for the team this summer, barring a strong playoff run.

We want to know what you think. How will the offseason play out for the the teams that get bounced in Wednesday’s games? What changes would – or should – be made if all four clubs eventually fail to qualify for the playoffs?

Poll: Who Will Win Wednesday’s Play-In Games?

When the 2024/25 season began, the Mavericks were coming off a 50-win year and an appearance in the NBA Finals. The Kings were coming off a 46-win campaign and had added DeMar DeRozan in free agency. Dallas had championship aspirations, while Sacramento felt good about its chances of making it back to the playoffs after being eliminated in the play-in tournament last spring.

But neither team’s season played out as hoped. The Mavericks’ shocking decision to trade Luka Doncic caused a fan revolt, but it was really the team’s health issues that sunk its hopes of contending for a title. Big men Dereck Lively, Daniel Gafford, and newly acquired Anthony Davis all missed significant time in the second half of the season due to injuries, while a torn ACL ended Kyrie Irving‘s season in early March.

Even without Doncic, a fully healthy version of this Mavericks team could’ve been a force to be reckoned with in the postseason. But losing Irving cost Dallas its top ball-handler and play-maker, forcing the team to lean heavily on guards like Spencer Dinwiddie and Brandon Williams and significantly lowering its ceiling.

While the Irving-less Mavs are unlikely to win a title this year, that doesn’t mean they can’t win a play-in game. They’ll visit Sacramento on Wednesday as the No. 10 seed in the West and will face a No. 9 Kings team whose season didn’t go much better than Dallas’ did.

Acclimating DeRozan didn’t go as smoothly as hoped and the Kings fell well below .500 two months into the season, leading to the ouster of head coach Mike Brown. Interim head coach Doug Christie helped turn things around in the short term, but just a few weeks later, word broke that the team was looking to trade De’Aaron Fox — he was ultimately sent to San Antonio.

While the Kings’ trade of its star point guard wasn’t nearly as controversial as the Mavericks’, it didn’t exactly kick-start a memorable second half. Zach LaVine, the centerpiece of Sacramento’s return in that three-team blockbuster, wasn’t an ideal fit — the team had a -3.8 net rating during his 1,170 minutes on the court, and his 119.9 defensive rating was easily the worst mark among the team’s rotation players.

Given the way the seasons have played out in Dallas and Sacramento, both teams have the profile of a one-and-done play-in team, but someone has to win on Wednesday and earn the right to face Memphis on Friday for the No. 8 seed in the West. For what it’s worth, oddsmakers favor the home team — the Kings are 4.5-point favorites, per BetOnline.ag.

Over in the East, a familiar matchup is on tap for Wednesday evening. If there’s such a thing as a play-in rivalry, Bulls vs. Heat qualifies. Miami defeated Chicago in the win-or-go-home play-in game for the No. 8 seed in 2023 and again in 2024. The two teams will square off in a single-elimination matchup for a third straight year, though this time it’s just for the right to stay alive and face Atlanta for the No. 8 seed on Friday.

Like Dallas and Sacramento, both the Bulls and Heat traded away star players this season, though those situations played out in very different ways.

LaVine, who had been on the trade block for multiple seasons, was a model citizen in Chicago and was enjoying a nice individual bounce-back season, though it wasn’t translating to team success — at the time he was dealt to Sacramento, the Bulls were just 21-29. And in the immediate wake of the trade, things didn’t improve — Chicago lost six of its next seven games to fall to 22-35 and appeared ticketed for the lottery.

Unexpectedly, though, the team suddenly began showing signs of life, led by breakout star Coby White and buoyed by trade-deadline additions like Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter, and Zach Collins. From March 6 onward, the Bulls improbably won 15 of their last 20 games and ranked in the top 10 in the NBA in both offense and defense.

The Heat’s season followed almost the opposite trajectory. Their star, Jimmy Butler, was disruptive and did all he could to publicize the fact that he had no interest in continuing his career in Miami, earning multiple team-imposed suspensions leading up to the trade deadline. But the team held its own amid the drama and was actually above .500 (25-24) on the day Butler was sent to Golden State.

Even though Butler hadn’t actually been playing much for the Heat for weeks, his departure kicked off an ugly downturn for the club, which wrapped up its season by going just 12-21 after the trade deadline. That stretch was salvaged to some extent by a six-game winning streak in late March and early April, but was otherwise pretty brutal — no playoff or play-in team had a worst post-deadline record than Miami, and a handful of lottery teams (Phoenix, Portland, and Toronto) were better.

Despite those late-season results, the Bulls are favored by just one point over Miami on Wednesday, according to BetOnline, with oddsmakers perhaps respecting the Heat’s wins over Chicago in each of the past two play-in tournaments.

We want to know what you think. Are you taking the favorites and picking the Kings and Bulls on Wednesday, or do you expect to see at least one upset in the No. 9 vs. 10 games? Which teams will keep their seasons alive and which ones are headed home?

Vote in our poll and head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions.

Revisiting 2024/25 NBA Over/Under Predictions

Before the 2024/25 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (58.5 wins) to the Nets (19.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the eighth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in each of the next three seasons. Did that winning streak extend to five straight years in ’24/25? Let’s check in on the results and find out…


Eastern Conference

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (Over 58.5 wins): (61-21)
  • New York Knicks (Over 53.5 wins): (51-31)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 52.5 wins): (24-58)
  • Toronto Raptors (Under 30.5 wins):  (30-52)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 19.5 wins):  (26-56)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 50.5 wins):  (48-34)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 48.5 wins):  (64-18)
  • Indiana Pacers (Over 47.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Chicago Bulls (Under 28.5 wins):  (39-43)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 24.5 wins):  (44-38)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (Over 47.5 wins):  (41-41)
  • Miami Heat (Under 44.5 wins):  (37-45)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Under 35.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Under 29.5 wins):  (19-63)
  • Washington Wizards (Under 20.5 wins):  (18-64)

Eastern Conference record: 9-6

It was another impressive season in the Eastern Conference for our voters, who were just three Knicks wins away from going five-for-five in the Atlantic Division.

There were a couple of big misses elsewhere — the Cavaliers surpassed their over/under of 48.5 wins in February, for instance. But for the most part, the results here were very strong.


Western Conference

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 56.5 wins):  (68-14)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 52.5 wins):  (49-33)
  • Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Utah Jazz (Under 29.5 wins):  (17-65)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Under 22.5 wins):  (36-46)

Pacific

  • Phoenix Suns (Over 50.5 wins):  (36-46)
  • Sacramento Kings (Over 47.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Golden State Warriors (Under 44.5 wins):  (48-33)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (Under 43.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Under 39.5 wins):  (50-32)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 49.5 wins):  (39-43)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Under 47.5 wins):  (48-33)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 46.5 wins):  (21-61)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 43.5 wins):  (52-30)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Under 36.5 wins):  (34-48)

Western Conference record: 4-11

Yikes. There was no shortage of surprises in the Western Conference this season, starting with the 2024 NBA Finalists in Dallas finishing below .500 and a 49-win Suns team sliding by 13 games in 2024/25. There were some tough-luck misses here too, with the Nuggets falling short of their over/under mark by just two wins and the Grizzlies surpassing theirs by a single victory.

But these results tell us that the Pacific Division, in particular, was tough to get a feel for entering the season. The final standings in the Pacific were almost the exact opposite of what oddsmakers were projecting coming into the fall, with our voters betting wrong on all five teams.


Overall record: 13-17

Well, it was a good run. After four straight years above .500, our voters finally posted a losing record for the first time since 2019/20. A 13-17 mark is nothing to be ashamed of — no one beats the house forever, and the fact that so many teams were so hard to pin down this season reflects the fact that it was a fun, unpredictable year.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Poll: Who Will Win Tuesday’s Play-In Games?

The Grizzlies were tied for second place in the West as recently as March 14, while the Warriors held a top-five spot in the conference for the entire first week of April. However, neither Memphis nor Golden State was able to lock up a guaranteed playoff spot in the final days of the regular season.

The two teams will face one another on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the Western Conference, with the winner earning the right to enter the playoffs as the seventh seed and match up with Houston in round one.

Although the Warriors and Grizzlies finished the season with matching 48-34 records, the two clubs were headed in opposite directions down the stretch.

Hours after finalizing a trade for Jimmy Butler on February 6, Golden State fell to 25-26 on the season and held the No. 10 seed in the West only by a tiebreaker. But the Warriors won Butler’s debut two days later and never fell below .500 again, finishing the season on a 23-8 run. During that stretch, Golden State had the NBA’s third-best winning percentage (.742), eight-best offensive rating (118.2) and top defensive rating (109.0).

The Warriors aren’t entering the postseason as one of the title favorites, having stumbled a little as of late — they would have clinched a playoff berth already if they hadn’t lost three of their last five games, including a disappointing defeat to the lottery-bound Spurs last Wednesday. But they’ve certainly looked better than the Grizzlies, whose season has been trending downward in recent months.

On the day of the trade deadline, the Grizzlies had a 35-16 record. But two days later, on the same day the Warriors won Butler’s debut, Memphis lost to Oklahoma City to kick off an uninspiring stretch that saw the team finish the season by going just 13-18. Lottery teams like Portland and Toronto had better records during that stretch than the Grizzlies, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in both offensive rating (115.6) and defensive rating (116.0) from Feb. 8 onward.

Oh, and Memphis also made a head coaching change during that time, replacing Taylor Jenkins with assistant Tuomas Iisalo on March 28. The Grizzlies have a 4-5 record since that change.

The Grizzlies have plenty of talent on their roster and Warriors stars Stephen Curry (thumb) and Butler (thigh) are dealing with nagging ailments, so the result of Tuesday’s Western Conference play-in game is hardly a foregone conclusion. Still, after accounting for the Warriors’ 3-1 record vs. Memphis this season and the fact that they’ll be hosting Tuesday’s play-in game in San Francisco, it’s not hard to understand why Golden State is considered a good bet to advance — BetOnline.ag has the Warriors listed as seven-point favorites.

Over in the East, it’s a battle of the year’s top Southeast teams on Tuesday, as the No. 7 Magic (41-41) host the No. 8 Hawks (40-42). The winner will claim the seventh seed and face Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

It has been an odd season in Orlando, where the Magic looked like one of the conference’s top teams in early going despite losing Paolo Banchero and then Franz Wagner to oblique tears that sidelined them for extended periods. But the Magic’s injury issues – which also ended Jalen Suggs‘ and Moritz Wagner‘s seasons early – eventually caught up with them, resulting in a 12-26 midseason swoon from December to March that cost the team a chance at a top-six seed.

Orlando finished the year strong, winning nine of its last 12 games, and performed very well defensively on the season as a whole, registering the league’s second-best defensive rating (109.1). But even with Banchero and Wagner on the court, the Magic struggled to score — their 108.9 offensive rating ranked 27th in the NBA, ahead of only Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Washington.

The Hawks, meanwhile, appeared to be in trouble when rising star forward Jalen Johnson went down in January with a season-ending shoulder injury. They were 22-22 as of Johnson’s last game and promptly fell several games below .500 without him before trading away second-leading scorer De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline shortly thereafter.

But instead of continuing to slide down the standings and ending up in the lottery, Atlanta got a second wind, led by Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher, along with deadline additions like Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann.

As good as Daniels has been defensively this season, the Hawks’ overall team defense has lagged behind — it was their offense that propelled them to a spot in the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in game. From March 6 onward, Atlanta went 12-8 and posted the second-best offensive rating in the Eastern Conference (120.4).

Tuesday’s matchup, in which the Magic are listed as five-point favorites, per BetOnline, could come down to how much headway the Hawks’ offensive weapons can make against one of the NBA’s best defensive units in Orlando.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams will claim playoff spots on Tuesday and which ones will have to try again on Friday to punch their tickets into round one?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions.

What To Watch For On Final Day Of NBA’s Regular Season

All 30 NBA teams have Saturday off and will play their regular season finales on Sunday. Here are a few things worth keeping an eye on during the season’s final weekend:


Playoff berths and seeding

The Eastern Conference postseason seeding has already been set, as we outlined on Friday night. However, the Western Conference playoff picture remains very much in flux.

The Thunder wrapped up the No. 1 seed weeks ago and the Rockets and Lakers have since clinched the second and third seeds, respectively. But at least two teams remain in play for each of the other seven spots in the West, with an incredible five clubs still in the mix for the No. 7 seed.

Here are the current standings from Nos. 4 through 10:

  1. Denver Nuggets (49-32)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers (49-32)
  3. Golden State Warriors (48-33)
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves (48-33)
  5. Memphis Grizzlies (47-34)
  6. Sacramento Kings (39-42)
  7. Dallas Mavericks (39-42)

And here are the relevant Sunday matchups involving those teams:

  • Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
  • Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
  • Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
  • Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings

There are too many possible scenarios to list them all here, but the NBA has published a handy chart (on Twitter) explaining all of the various outcomes. In short, the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves are vying for the final three guaranteed playoff spots and each need a win to clinch their spot in the top six of the West.

The Nuggets would also clinch a playoff spot if the Warriors or Timberwolves lose, while the Clippers can secure their spot if the Nuggets or Timberwolves lose and the Warriors can sew up a playoff berth with a Timberwolves loss. Minnesota must beat Utah in order to finish in the top six. If the Wolves and Nuggets both win, they’ll finish in the top six along with the winner of the Clippers/Warriors game.

The Grizzlies are locked into a play-in spot and will face whichever one of those four teams fails to clinch a playoff berth on Sunday. They still have a chance to host that 7 vs. 8 play-in game if they beat Dallas and Utah upsets Minnesota.

The only outstanding question for the Kings and Mavericks is which team will host their play-in game — Sacramento can lock up home court advantage with a victory over the Suns.


Traded draft picks and lottery odds

While a win on Sunday would guarantee the Kings a home play-in game, it would reduce the odds that they’ll hang onto their top-12 protected first-round pick, which they owe to the Hawks. In order to hang onto that pick, Sacramento must miss the playoffs and then either move into the top four in the draft lottery or pick 11th or 12th, ahead of multiple play-in teams.

That second scenario technically remains in play. For example, let’s say the Kings lose on Sunday and finish the season with a 39-43 record. And let’s say the Mavericks and Hawks each win on Sunday and finish 40-42, while the Bulls win too to end up at 39-43. Finally, let’s say the Heat claim one of the final playoff spots in the East via the play-in tournament.

In that scenario, there would be two lottery teams (either the Magic or Hawks and one Western team) with better records than the Kings, who would be in a coin flip with the Bulls for the No. 11 spot in the draft lottery. That would give the Kings a strong chance of hanging onto their protected first-rounder, but a lot would have to fall into place for that to happen, starting with a loss on Sunday.

There are several more traded first-round picks that have a wide range of outcomes depending on where teams finish in the standings and how the play-in tournament plays out. For example, the Grizzlies owe the Wizards their lottery-protected first-round pick. If Memphis wins its first play-in game, that pick figures to land at 17 or 18. On the other hand, if the Grizzlies lose consecutive play-in games, they’d keep the pick and Washington would instead get a pair of second-rounders.

Another example: the Timberwolves owe their first-round pick to the Jazz, with no protections. A win on Sunday for Minnesota would mean that pick lands in the late teens or early 20s. A loss, followed by a pair of losses in the play-in tournament, would make it a lottery pick.

Speaking of the lottery, there’s still some positioning to be finalized there too, starting with whether the Wizards and Jazz, who are tied at 17-64, will finish atop the lottery standings. If both teams win (or if they both lose) on Sunday, a coin flip will decide their order. The team that gets the No. 1 spot will have the same odds at a top-four pick as the No. 2 team, but won’t be able to fall further than fifth overall in the draft. The coin flip loser could fall as far as sixth if several teams leapfrog them into the top four.

Most other guaranteed lottery teams are locked into their respective positions, but the Trail Blazers (35-46) and Suns (36-45) at No. 9 and No. 10 could still end up swapping spots if Portland wins and Phoenix loses on Sunday. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team is ninth in the lottery order.


Award races

It may seem safe to assume that no awards will be decided based on what happens on the final day of the season, but you never know.

For instance, if the Nuggets lose on Sunday and end up falling all the way to No. 7 in the Western Conference standings, we can probably just hand the MVP trophy to Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the other hand, if Nikola Jokic helps Denver clinch the No. 4 seed with a 50-point triple-double, maybe that will sway some voters who are on the fence.

There are no serious candidates for end-of-season awards who absolutely need to play at least 20 minutes on Sunday in order to meet the NBA’s 65-game criteria. Technically, Raptors forward Scottie Barnes has one game to go to reach 65, but he’s pretty unlikely to warrant any real consideration for awards like All-NBA and All-Defense.


Teams with open roster spots

As we outlined on Thursday, there are still a handful of teams with open spots on their standard 15-man rosters. Those teams are now as follows:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Toronto Raptors (2)

The Mavericks (Brandon Williams) and Pelicans (Elfrid Payton) have signed players since Thursday to fill spots on their 15-man rosters, and reports have indicated that the Celtics (JD Davison) and Raptors (A.J. Lawson and Colin Castleton) have lined up deals for their openings too. So the Warriors are really the only team we’re waiting on here.

It’s not unprecedented for a team to leave a roster spot open at the end of the season, but it’s pretty rare — all 30 teams finished the season with full 15-man squads in each of the past three years.

That makes the Warriors a good bet to make a roster move before their final game tips off on Sunday, even if it’s as simple as promoting a two-way player to a standard contract to make him postseason-eligible.

2025 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

We’re still nearly two-and-a-half months away from the 2025 NBA draft, but before we get to June 25, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:


April 26 (11:59 pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College and international players who aren’t automatically draft-eligible this year have until the end of the day on April 26 to submit their names into the 2025 NBA draft pool. Those early entrants can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they can’t hire an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

Once the early entrant list is officially set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players.

May 9-11: NBA G League Combine

The NBA has experimented in recent years with the format of this event, which was previously known as the G League Elite Camp. It was revamped in 2019 and consisted that year of 40 veteran G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half.

However, after being canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19, the Elite Camp only featured 40 draft-eligible prospects, without the G League players, when it returned in 2021. That format has carried over to subsequent years, with the league inviting between 44 and 50 prospects who didn’t make the initial list of invitees for the NBA’s actual draft combine.

While the event has been rebranded again this year as the G League Combine, there’s no indication at this point that the format will change as well. Assuming it remains the same, several standouts from the G League combine will likely be invited to remain in Chicago for the full-fledged combine that follows.

May 12: NBA draft lottery

The 2025 draft lottery will be the seventh one employing the format that was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

Although the current system reduced the odds of the league’s very worst teams claiming the picks at the top of the draft, we had gone a few years without any major surprises. That changed in 2024, when the Hawks jumped up from 10th in the lottery standings to nab the No. 1 overall pick, which they used on Zaccharie Risacher.

If we get another surprise in this year’s lottery, it figures to be even more meaningful than it was for Atlanta in 2024, since Duke star Cooper Flagg is considered one of the top prospects of the past decade and is viewed as a lock to be 2025’s No. 1 overall pick. That wasn’t the case for Risacher a year ago, when the race for the top pick was more wide open.

May 11-18: NBA draft combine

This week-long event, which takes place annually in Chicago, allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players.

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

In the past, the draft lottery has taken place after the conclusion of the combine. The NBA flipped the two events on its calendar last year and is sticking with that schedule in 2025. The May 12 lottery results figure to have an impact on which teams focus on which lottery-caliber players in Chicago.

May 28 (11:59 pm ET): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen – and seniors who are eligible to play for more one season – who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by May 28. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine ends.

An early entrant could technically wait until after May 28 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad. College players who want to play overseas for a year or two before entering the NBA draft could take this route.

June 15 (5:00 pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether or not a college player decided to keep his name in the draft, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to June 15.

June 25 and 26: NBA draft days

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when several of the first major trades of the summer are completed and when we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

In 2024, for the first time, “draft day” actually referred to two days, as the NBA and NBPA agreed to make the draft a multi-day event, with the first round occurring on a Wednesday and the second round taking place on a Thursday. The league is sticking with that format this year, with round one scheduled for Wednesday, June 25 and round two to follow on Thursday, June 26.

The change drew mixed reviews from fans a year ago.

The NBA’s thinking in splitting the draft into two days was that it would benefit teams, who get to regroup halfway through the draft to reset their boards and have more time to consider possible trades; the league’s broadcast partners, who will be able to devote more attention to second-round picks that are often made when the television broadcast is in the midst of an ad break; and fans, who won’t have to stay up so late into the night to see the end of the second round.

In 2024, the first day of the draft began at 8:00 pm Eastern on Wednesday, with day two starting at 4:00 pm ET on Thursday. A U.S. presidential debate took place on the evening of day two last year, so it remains to be seen if the NBA will stick with that afternoon start time for the second round or if it will also get the prime-time treatment in 2025.

The hours and days after the second round ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 59 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Final Check-In On Open NBA Roster Spots

With just four days left in the NBA’s regular season, there are still a few teams around the league with open 15-man roster spots, and there’s little downside to filling those openings before the regular season ends.

For playoff teams, adding one more player would create a little extra depth in the event of postseason injuries or garbage-time minutes. For non-playoff teams, it makes sense to try to convince a young player to accept a multiyear deal that includes little or no guaranteed money beyond this season, since it gives those teams another option for next year’s roster.

Even clubs over the luxury tax line or right up against it shouldn’t have a problem paying one more player a prorated minimum salary for the last day or two of the season — the prorated minimum for a veteran on a rest-of-season deal is just $11,997 per day, which is a drop in the bucket for NBA franchises.

With all that in mind, it’s safe to assume that some – if not all – of the teams with open roster spots should fill them by Sunday. Here are those teams:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • Toronto Raptors (2)

The Mavericks‘ plans for their open 15-man roster spot have already been reported. They intend to promote two-way player Brandon Williams to a standard contract and likely would’ve done it much sooner if they’d had enough room under their hard cap to do so.

The Pelicans technically have 16 players on standard contracts as of today, but two of those players – Elfrid Payton and Kylor Kelley – are on 10-day contracts that will expire this weekend. I’d expect New Orleans to look to sign Payton, Kelley or someone else to a multiyear contract that gives the club some roster flexibility beyond this season.

The Raptors opened up a pair of roster spots on Thursday by waiving Orlando Robinson and Cole Swider, both of whom were on rest-of-season contracts. Their reported plan is to fill those two spots in the coming days with players on multiyear deals — Robinson and/or Swider may even return, though Colin Castleton is reportedly also on Toronto’s radar, and a promotion of two-way player A.J. Lawson is a possibility too.

The other two teams here – the Celtics and Warriors – are either assured of a playoff spot (in Boston’s case) or are well positioned to make it (in Golden State’s case). But that doesn’t necessarily mean each of those teams will sign a win-now veteran as a 15th man. They already have enough depth on their respective rosters that they may prefer to add a younger prospect – perhaps a two-way player or someone from the G League – on a multiyear deal.

While there are only five teams with open spots on their 15-man rosters, that doesn’t necessarily mean those five clubs are the only candidates to make roster moves in the next few days.

Teams without an open roster spot could waive one of their current 15 players in order to make room for a new addition or a promoted two-way player. They’ll likely have to make that decision very soon though — 4:00 pm Central time on Thursday is the deadline to waive a player on an expiring contract in order to ensure he clears waivers before the final day of the regular season, as Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets.

The Cavaliers (Chuma Okeke), Kings (Terence Davis), and Knicks (P.J. Tucker) are among the teams who had been carrying an open 15-man roster spot but who have filled that opening this month.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there are a handful of clubs with two-way contract slots available, but the deadline for two-way signings passed in early March, so those roster spots will remain open.