Hoops Rumors Glossary: Bird Rights
The Bird exception, named after Larry Bird, is a rule included in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own players, as most NBA fans know. A player who qualifies for the Bird exception, formally referred to as a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, is said to have “Bird rights.”
The most basic way for a player to earn Bird rights is to play for the same team for at least three seasons, either on a multiyear deal or separate one-year contracts. Still, there are other criteria. A player retains his Bird rights in the following scenarios:
- He changes teams via trade. For instance, the Pelicans hold DeMarcus Cousins‘ Bird rights as he approaches 2018 free agency, despite just acquiring him in February. His Bird clock didn’t reset when he was traded from Sacramento to New Orleans.
- He finishes a third season with a team after having only signed for a partial season with the club in the first year. Sean Kilpatrick signed his current contract with the Nets in March of 2016. It’s only a two-year deal, so Kilpatrick won’t qualify for full Bird rights this season, but that 2015/16 season counts as the first year on his Bird clock, even though he was only under contract with the club for about a month.
- He signed for a full season in year one or two but the team waived him, he cleared waivers, and didn’t sign with another team before re-signing with the club and remaining under contract through a third season. For instance, the Sixers waived Gerald Henderson in June after he spent a single season in Philadelphia. If the club were to re-sign Henderson at some point this season, his Bird clock would move to a second year, rather than resetting.
A player sees the clock on his Bird rights reset to zero in the following scenarios:
- He changes teams via free agency.
- He is waived and is not claimed on waivers (except as in scenario No. 3 above).
- His rights are renounced by his team. However, his Bird rights are restored if he re-signs with that team without having signed with another NBA team. Shabazz Muhammad (Timberwolves) and Udonis Haslem (Heat) were among the free agents who were renounced by their respective teams this past offseason before re-signing with those clubs. They’ve retained their Bird rights.
- He is selected in an expansion draft.
If a player is waived and claimed off waivers, and he would have been in line for Bird rights at the end of the season, he would retain only Early Bird rights. Meanwhile, a player with Bird rights who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year contract (or a one-year deal with a second-year option) would lose his Bird rights if he’s traded. As such, he receives the ability to veto trades so he can avoid that scenario.
When a player earns Bird rights, he’s eligible to re-sign with his team on a maximum-salary contract for up to five years with 8% annual raises when he becomes a free agent, regardless of how much cap room the team has. The maximum salary will vary for each player depending on how long he has been in the league, but regardless of the amount, a team can exceed the salary cap to complete the deal.
A team with a Bird free agent is assigned a “free agent amount” or cap hold worth either 190% of his previous salary (for a player with a below-average salary) or 150% of his previous salary (for an above-average salary), up to the maximum salary amount. For players coming off rookie scale contracts, the amounts of those cap holds are 300% and 250%, respectively.
The Bulls, for instance, will have a cap hold worth about $9.6MM for Zach LaVine on their 2018/19 books — 300% of his $3.2MM salary for 2017/18. Chicago could renounce LaVine and clear an extra $9.6MM in cap space, but the Bulls would lose his Bird rights if they did that, which would force them to use either cap room or a different cap exception to re-sign him.
Instead, the Bulls will likely use LaVine’s Bird rights and his cap hold strategically, perhaps using their cap space on other free agents and/or trades while LaVine’s $9.6MM cap hold remains on the books. The Bulls could then circle back and use Bird rights to sign LaVine to a contract with a starting salary much higher than $9.6MM.
Ultimately, the Bird exception was designed to allow teams to keep their best players. The CBA ensures that teams are always able to re-sign them to contracts up to the maximum salary, assuming the player is interested in returning and his team is willing to go over the cap.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.
Weekly Mailbag: 11/13/17 – 11/19/17
We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.
Will the Bulls trade Nikola Mirotic in January? If so, what’s his value around the league? Personally I like his game, but if he’s not willing to play … Gotta receive something in return. — Hasun Rogers, via Twitter
The question stems from Mirotic’s refusal to forgive teammate Bobby Portis for their training camp skirmish that left Mirotic hospitalized with two broken facial bones. Representatives for Mirotic have told the Bulls he doesn’t want to be part of the team as long as Portis still is, which leaves the organization in an awkward position. Mirotic was expected to miss four to six weeks and it has been 31 days since the incident, so he should be cleared to return soon. Portis is playing well, averaging 14.6 points and 8.4 rebounds since returning from a suspension, making him unlikely to be dealt.
Executive VP John Paxson made his stance clear this week, telling reporters, “They are adults. This is our workplace. They’re both part of the team. I think it’s pretty simple.” If Mirotic won’t return with Portis still there, it could lead to a standoff with the team and an eventual suspension. He can’t be traded until January 15 due to the terms of the contract he signed in the offseason. As far as trade value, keep in mind that Mirotic was on the market all summer without receiving an offer, so Chicago shouldn’t expect much in return.
The Sacramento Kings had good crop of rookies drafted recently, plus veterans Zach Randolph and Vince Carter, but they seem to have regressed vastly this early season. What do you think is wrong with the team? — Greg Dizon
The main problem with the Kings is that they’re in the very early stages of a rebuilding project. It started with last year’s trade of DeMarcus Cousins, and this year’s draft class was the second step. De’Aaron Fox might be a future star, but he’s only 19 and still learning how to play in the NBA. Fellow first-rounder and fellow teenager Harry Giles won’t play until at least January because of his injury history.
It will be interesting to see how long Sacramento holds on to Randolph, Carter and George Hill, who were brought in to be mentors to the young talent. Carter has a one-year, $8MM deal, so he should be easy to move to a contender by the deadline. But Randolph is signed for one more season at nearly $11.7MM and Hill will make $19MM next season and a non-guaranteed $18MM in 2019/20, so they might both be with the Kings beyond this year.
Will the Knicks sign LeBron James? — Tyler Eisloeffel, via Twitter
Only LeBron knows what he’s planning for July, and he may need to see how things play out for the rest of the season before deciding. Staying with the Cavaliers and joining the Lakers are the two safest bets, but the Knicks could be a dark horse if they stay in the playoff race and Kristaps Porzingis remains an MVP candidate. New York projects to have about $32MM in cap space, although player options for Enes Kanter, Kyle O’Quinn and Ron Baker could bring that figure down. Let’s say that the Knicks’ chances to land LeBron were zero when Phil Jackson was around, and are a little bit higher now.
Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/11/17 – 11/18/17
Every week, the writers here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Here are those segments and features from the last 7 days:
- Like we did last season, we’re keeping track of all in-season trades during the 2017/18 campaign.
- We’ve also provided salary cap outlooks for all 30 teams, division by division, based on each team’s current roster.
- While NBA waiver claims don’t happen very often, a waiver order applies when they do. Until December 1, this order is based upon teams’ 2016/17 records. For a current waiver priority list and further analysis of the waiver procedure, click here.
- We analyzed why the current CBA prohibits players signed after November 9 from being traded during the 2017/18 season.
- As part of our Fantasy Hoops content, we examined the performances so far this season of Otto Porter Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., and Paul Millsap, three players who cashed in big this past offseason.
- In several different Community Shootaround posts, we asked:
- Who has been the most impressive 2017 NBA Draft selection so far?
- Who is the early favorite for the 2017/18 MVP Award?
- How should the Nets approach D’Angelo Russell’s injury?
- We asked you, the readers, to weigh in on two polls:
- Are the Celtics the new favorite to face the Warriors in the NBA Finals?
- Which NBA player is the least expensive star this season?
2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southwest Division
NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.
We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re finishing up our series with the Southwest division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Southwest teams:
Memphis Grizzlies
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $101,105,736
Projection: Over the cap
Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, and Marc Gasol will earn a combined $78MM+ in 2018/19, so unless the Grizzlies trade one of those players, the team is extremely unlikely to create any meaningful cap space. If Memphis struggles and misses the playoffs this season, I could see trade rumors surrounding Gasol begin to intensify, but for now, we’re assuming the Grizzlies will begin the 2018 offseason over the projected $101MM salary cap.
New Orleans Pelicans
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $91,577,138
Projection: Over the cap
With nearly $92MM committed to just seven players, the Pelicans would need to account for cap charges for five empty roster spots. Once those cap charges are added to team salary, New Orleans is left with about $5MM in potential cap room, which is less than the value of the mid-level exception. So even if the Pelicans don’t end up keeping DeMarcus Cousins‘ cap hold on their books to try to re-sign him, they’ll likely function as an over-the-cap club.
San Antonio Spurs
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,410,994
Projection: Up to approximately $18MM in cap room
It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Spurs ultimately don’t have any cap room at their disposal for 2018. The team has three veterans holding player options, in Danny Green ($10MM), Rudy Gay ($8.8MM), and Joffrey Lauvergne ($1.7MM), as well as three potential restricted free agents (Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans, and Bryn Forbes).
It’s entirely possible that all three of those players with options turn them down, and it’s also within reason that the Spurs will let their RFAs go. Still, I’d expect at least two or three of those six players to remain in San Antonio. And if guys like Green and Gay are among those returnees, either on their options or on new contracts, then the Spurs’ cap space will evaporate in a hurry.
Houston Rockets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,123,448
Projection: Up to approximately $18MM in cap room
Like the Spurs, the Rockets could create a modest amount of cap room by parting ways with all their potential free agents, but the more likely scenario will see them stay over the cap. Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Trevor Ariza will be among the most coveted free agents in the NBA, and re-signing even one of the three would likely take Houston over the cap, or close to it. Re-signing two, or all three, could push Houston into luxury-tax territory.
Dallas Mavericks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $41,269,318
Projection: Up to approximately $35MM in cap room
Based on their current team salary projections for 2018/19, the Mavericks could theoretically create up to $53MM in cap space. However, that’s probably an unrealistic estimate, since it doesn’t include Wesley Matthews‘ $18.6MM player option.
The 31-year-old guard has failed to make more than 40% of his field goal attempts in any of his three seasons with the Mavs, and his .359 FG% so far this season is his worst mark yet. He’s also averaging just 11.2 PPG despite playing 34.6 minutes per contest. Simply put, Matthews isn’t going to find an $18MM salary on the open market if he turns down his option.
As such, our projection for the Mavs assumes that Matthews will exercise that option, which still leaves Dallas with about $35MM in cap room. That would be more than enough to bring back Seth Curry and Dirk Nowitzki – if he doesn’t retire – and still have space left over.
Previously:
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Atlantic Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Central Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southeast Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Northwest Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Pacific Division
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Fantasy Hoops: Big-Money Free Agents
Compared to the spending spree summers of 2015 and 2016, this past offseason was a mild showing for players cashing in on major contracts. Yet, quite a few players received deals that appeared above the market rate at the time. Let’s examine how some of the players who signed bloated free agent contracts are performing early on and assess their fantasy value going forward:
Otto Porter Jr., Wizards (four years, $106MM):
Does Simon Helberg warrant $26.5MM per year? In a vacuum, probably not. But in his current environment, the figure is much more understandable. Hollywood’s third-highest-paid TV actor, who stars in The Big Bang Theory, doesn’t carry the mega-successful sitcom, but his efficiency and excellent chemistry with the show’s stars (the industry’s two highest-paid actors) allow him to thrive in his role.
Porter is Washington’s Simon Helberg. The combo forward has evolved since being drafted with the No. 3 overall pick, developing from a high-risk, high-reward 3-and-D prospect to someone who can not only play that role but also is dangerous enough to lead his own sets and take the pressure off of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards look like legitimate threats to make the Eastern Conference Finals and Porter’s versatility and next-level efficiency (shooting 50% from downtown this season; 57.6% from the field) are major reasons why.
The Nets saw Porter’s talent and potential and wanted to give him his own show in Brooklyn, but the Wizards matched the offer sheet and kept him as a secondary option. Could he succeed as the lead star of the team? Perhaps. Porter, like Helberg (36 years old), is relatively young and could eventually grow into someone capable of carrying a majority share of the load. However, in both cases, the best shot at landing near the top of standings is to remain in their current situations.
Fantasy owners don’t need Porter to take on a bigger role to appreciate his production. His contributions across multiple categories make him a top-20 player in Roto leagues, and while some may be tempted to sell high on Porter given the likelihood that his stats will decline to some extent, it’s best to resist that urge.
The Georgetown product might have the highest fantasy-value-to-star-status ratio in the league, meaning many owners may not appropriately evaluate his worth. Unless you can land a clear upgrade (Paul George, Marc Gasol, Joel Embiid), keep Porter on your squad and enjoy the production.
In ESPN leagues, Porter was selected on average with the No. 44 overall pick. If you nabbed him near that spot, you, like the Wizards, can enjoy an excellent return on your investment.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks (four years, $72MM):
New York’s prized offseason addition has been very busy early on, especially from behind the arc. Only three players (Eric Gordon, James Harden, and Stephen Curry) are taking more three-pointers than Hardaway’s 7.9 per game.
Hardaway is only shooting 30.9% on those attempts. However, while those in Roto leagues may worry about his field goal percentage, the volume – combined with his ability to contribute in other categories – should alleviate those concerns. The 25-year-old is pulling down 4.4 rebounds, dishing out 3.1 assists, and snatching over a steal per game. Value him above players like Will Barton, Dennis Smith Jr., and Lonzo Ball.
Paul Millsap, Nuggets (three years, $90MM):
The Nuggets, though still wildly inconsistent, appear to be a playoff team, something fueled by Millsap’s contributions on the defensive end. However, the power forward has taken a step back on the offensive end and it’s hurt his fantasy stock early on.
Those who drafted Millsap in ESPN leagues took him on average with the No. 36 overall pick and he simply has not produced value from that spot so far this season. His value has fallen more in points leagues than in Roto, though he is still usable in both.
Millsap has never been a master at any one statistical category, but rather a steady force in many. His decline in per-game points (15.7; lowest mark since 2012/13 in Utah), rebounds (4.8; fewest since the 2009/10 season) and assists (2.8; fewest since 2012/13) are discouraging, but he’s just one of nine players averaging at least a block and a steal per contest. He won’t kill you in the percentage categories and he’ll remain his normal self from beyond the arc.
Millsap’s versatile stat line makes him a high-floor player and that will help to mitigate the loss in value from his draft-day price. He could actually be a buy-low target if someone in your league is over-projecting his decline.
Remember, staying active and exploring all opportunities in trades is a key part of fantasy leagues and that means not turning away from players who appear to be on the downswing. If you can properly evaluate, you can get an edge in trade discussions and Millsap’s perceived decline may present you with a chance to win a deal.
Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.
Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Pacific Division
NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.
We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Pacific division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Pacific teams:
Golden State Warriors
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $102,091,455
Projection: Over the cap
The Warriors’ total guaranteed salary of $102MM for next season looks modest at first glance. But that figure only accounts for seven players, and Kevin Durant isn’t one of them. Even if Durant is willing to sign for several million less than the max again, which is certainly no lock, re-signing him and then filling out the rest of their roster figures to take the Dubs into luxury-tax territory.
Phoenix Suns
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $70,667,235
Projection: Up to approximately $28MM in cap room
While the Suns’ return in the Eric Bledsoe trade was widely viewed as underwhelming, the move did clear $15MM in guaranteed salary from the club’s 2018/19 cap, creating additional flexibility. Retaining Alan Williams – who has a non-guaranteed salary – and re-signing Alex Len would cut into the Suns’ cap space. However, neither of those moves are locks at this point, so Phoenix could get easily get to $25MM+ in cap room, and could potentially open up even more room by trading Jared Dudley and/or Tyson Chandler, who will be on expiring contracts next season.
Sacramento Kings
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $68,252,577
Projection: Up to approximately $33MM in cap room ($16MM if player options exercised)
There have been no reports yet suggesting that Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple will exercise their player options for 2018/19, which are worth about $8.74MM and $8MM, respectively. The Kings should probably be preparing for that outcome though — neither player has a major role, and the free agent market won’t be as player-friendly as it was in 2016, when Koufos and Temple signed their current deals.
If those options are exercised, the Kings’ guaranteed salaries will increase to about $85MM, limiting their cap flexibility. But they’ll also be able to dedicate that remaining cap room to a single player, if they so choose — assuming Koufos and Temple return, Sacramento would head into the offseason with 14 players under contract, not including draft picks.
Los Angeles Clippers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $59,880,133
Projection: Up to approximately $31MM in cap room
Only five Clippers players currently have fully guaranteed salaries for 2018/19, but there are several other candidates to return. For one, Patrick Beverley and his $5MM non-guaranteed salary will certainly be back — that’s a tremendous bargain for one of the league’s best defensive players, and our cap projection for the Clippers assumes he’ll be on the books at that price.
Our cap projection doesn’t take into account any player options though, and four Clippers players hold those options for 2018/19. DeAndre Jordan, who figures to land a lucrative multiyear deal, will likely turn down his $24MM option, but Austin Rivers ($12.65MM), Milos Teodosic ($6.3MM), and Wesley Johnson ($6.1MM) are candidates to opt in. If all three of those players pick up their options and Beverley is retained, the Clips’ cap room will essentially disappear.
Los Angeles Lakers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $49,336,471
Projection: Up to approximately $47.5MM in cap room
The Lakers’ desire to open up two maximum-salary slots for the 2018 free agent period has been well publicized, but the team still has some work to do to achieve that goal. Based on a $101MM cap, maximum salaries for, say, LeBron James and Paul George would be worth a combined $65.65MM in 2018/19. L.A. remains about $18MM shy of that figure, even assuming the team renounces Julius Randle, Brook Lopez, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Of course, moving Luol Deng‘s $18MM salary would just about get the Lakers there, but finding a club willing to take on that deal without sending out any salary in return will be challenging, to say the least. Waiving and stretching Deng’s contract next July and dumping Jordan Clarkson‘s $12.5MM salary is probably a more realistic path for the Lakers to get into that range for two max deals.
Previously:
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Atlantic Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Central Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southeast Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Northwest Division
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Northwest Division
NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.
We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Northwest division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Northwest teams:
Portland Trail Blazers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,456,026
Projection: Over the cap
The Trail Blazers reduced their future commitments by trading Allen Crabbe to Brooklyn earlier this year, and Ed Davis will come off the books next summer, giving Portland a chance to avoid the luxury tax in 2018/19. However, their $110MM+ in guaranteed salaries for next season doesn’t include a contract for Jusuf Nurkic, who will be a restricted free agent. If they want to re-sign Nurkic and don’t dump another salary, the Blazers figure to return to tax territory.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,233,979
Projection: Over the cap
The Timberwolves’ salary commitments look a lot different now than they did a year ago. Gorgui Dieng‘s lucrative new extension went into effect this summer, and Andrew Wiggins‘ max deal will begin in 2018. Throw in substantial salaries for offseason acquisitions Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, and Taj Gibson, and Minnesota projects to be well over the cap for 2018/19. With a potential extension for Karl-Anthony Towns looming for 2019/20, the Wolves won’t have cap space for the foreseeable future if they intend to keep their current core group together.
Denver Nuggets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $89,903,848
Projection: Over the cap
The Nuggets’ guaranteed salaries for 2018/19 currently sit around $90MM, but even based on a $101MM cap projection, we shouldn’t expect the team to have any room. There are too many factors working against it.
For one, Denver will face a tough decision on Nikola Jokic — exercising his ultra-affordable $1.6MM team option would put him on track to become an unrestricted free agency in 2019, so the club may opt to decline that option and make him a restricted free agent. In that scenario, a new contract for Jokic would push the Nuggets over the cap.
Even if they simply pick up Jokic’s cheap option, the Nuggets will also have to consider player options for Kenneth Faried ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM). Arthur is a good bet to exercise his option, and even though Faried hasn’t always loved his role in Denver, it’s possible he’ll pick up his too, since it features a pretty player-friendly salary.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $88,907,222
Projection: Over the cap
Carmelo Anthony‘s early termination option for 2018/19, worth nearly $28MM, is a major X factor for the Thunder, whose guaranteed team salary would increase from approximately $89MM to nearly $117MM if Anthony opts in. Taking into account Carmelo’s age, his production trends, and the current state of the free agent market, it makes sense for him to play out the final year of his current deal, so we’re penciling in Oklahoma City as a probable over-the-cap team.
Even if Anthony opts out and Paul George doesn’t re-sign, OKC could only get up to about $8.8MM in cap room. That’s barely more than the projected value of the mid-level exception, so even in that scenario, the Thunder may simply remain over the cap to avoid renouncing all their exceptions.
Utah Jazz
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $67,839,543
Projection: Up to approximately $28MM in cap room
Only six Jazz players have fully guaranteed salaries for 2018/19, while seven others have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries, or are restricted free agents. That gives Utah some flexibility if the team wants to maximize its cap room.
However, retaining Thabo Sefolosha for his reasonable non-guaranteed salary of $5.25MM would cut into the Jazz’s space, as would re-signing Rodney Hood and/or Dante Exum. Realistically, unless Utah decides to only hang onto those six fully guaranteed players and make major changes around them, we shouldn’t expect the club to enter July 2018 armed with a ton of cap room.
Previously:
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Atlantic Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Central Division
- 2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southeast Division
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Community Shootaround: Early Look At MVP Race
We’re only about a month into the NBA season, but a handful of strong contenders for this season’s Most Valuable Player award are already emerging. While there’s plenty of time for players like last year’s MVP Russell Westbrook to pick up the pace and insert themselves into this season’s race, AJ Neuharth-Keusch of USA Today and Dennis Chambers of Basketball Insiders have identified the players who look like the strongest candidates so far.
Neuharth-Keusch and Chambers agree that James Harden (Rockets) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) have been the top two candidates for MVP, in some order. The two stars are the only players in the NBA averaging more than 30 points per game, and Harden is also leading the league with 10.3 assists per contest. Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, is averaging a double-double of his own with 10.3 RPG.
LeBron James (Cavaliers) is also a consensus pick on Neuharth-Keusch’s and Chambers’ early lists, which makes sense, despite the fact that James’ Cavs are off to a sluggish start. The four-time MVP is playing some of the best basketball of his career, with 28.1 PPG, 8.8 APG, and an incredible .586 FG% while averaging an NBA-high 38.1 minutes per contest.
From there, the lists diverge. Neuharth-Keusch – whose list features input from fellow USA Today scribes Sam Amick, Jeff Zillgitt, and Michael Singer – rounds out the top five with Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks) and DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans).
Both New York and New Orleans were projected to be sub-.500 teams this season, but are off to solid starts behind the incredible play of their respective big men. Porzingis is averaging an impressive 29.5 PPG and shooting 41.0% on three-pointers, while Cousins is stuffing the stat sheet with 28.2 PPG, 14.0 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, and 1.6 SPG.
As for Chambers, he weighs team success a little more heavily, filling out his list with Stephen Curry (Warriors), Kevin Durant (Warriors), and Kyrie Irving (Celtics). Golden State leads the Western Conference with an 11-3 record, while Boston has an NBA-best 13-2 mark.
What do you think? Do you have an early pick for 2017/18 MVP? Do you think a player not mentioned above will become a part of the conversation in a big way within the next few weeks or months? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!
2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southeast Division
NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.
We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Southeast division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Southeast teams:
Miami Heat
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $117,444,952
Projection: Over the cap
Since the start of the 2016 offseason, the Heat have handed out lucrative long-term contracts to Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, and Josh Richardson. It will be Tyler Johnson‘s deal that will be the toughest to swallow in 2018/19 though. Because of the way his 2016 offer sheet from the Nets was structured under the old CBA, Johnson’s cap charge will jump from about $5.88MM this season to $19MM+ next year.
Barring major cost-cutting moves, the Heat will be well over the cap in 2018/19, and may end up surpassing the luxury tax line too.
Charlotte Hornets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $116,377,251
Projection: Over the cap
The Hornets have six players on their roster set to make at least $12MM apiece in 2018/19, including two – Nicolas Batum and Dwight Howard – earning about twice that. Most of those contracts won’t be easy to move, and Charlotte won’t want to dump the more team-friendly salaries from that group, like Kemba Walker‘s $12MM expiring deal. As such, we can expect the Hornets to head into the 2018 offseason as an over-the-cap club.
Washington Wizards
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $115,896,497
Projection: Over the cap
Despite the fact that John Wall‘s super-max extension won’t go into effect until 2019/20, the Wizards have nearly $116MM committed to just eight players next season. Even if the team were to trade a non-core player on an eight-figure salary, such as Ian Mahinmi or Marcin Gortat, it wouldn’t be enough to create meaningful cap space.
Orlando Magic
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,180,655
Projection: Up to approximately $19.5MM in cap room
The summer of 2018 will be a good test for just how attached the Magic’s new front office is to the old regime’s top draft picks. Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton will be restricted free agents, and if Orlando intends to retain both players – or even just Gordon – the team’s cap room will disappear. Letting Gordon and Payton walk and waiving Shelvin Mack and his non-guaranteed salary would get the Magic up to nearly $20MM in cap space.
Atlanta Hawks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $56,232,915
Projection: Up to approximately $41MM in cap room
The Hawks’ maximum available cap space for 2018 will hinge in part on whether Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala decide to pick up their respective player options. Those options being exercised would reduce the Hawks’ max cap room to about $31MM, which would still be more than enough to make a major addition or two — or to take on a couple undesirable contracts along with picks or young players, if Atlanta isn’t ready yet to accelerate its rebuilding timeline.
Previously:
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Central Division
NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.
We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Central division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Central teams:
Milwaukee Bucks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $104,034,259
Projection: Over the cap
The Bucks’ recent acquisition of Eric Bledsoe, which added another $15MM to the team’s books for next season, all but guarantees that Milwaukee won’t have any cap space available in 2018. Moving another contract or two could change that, but if the Bucks intend to re-sign Jabari Parker to a long-term deal, they’ll likely end up much closer to the luxury tax line than to the salary cap threshold.
Detroit Pistons
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $101,685,313
Projection: Over the cap
The NBA’s most recent salary cap projection estimated a $101MM cap for 2018/19, which would put the Pistons right around the threshold. Don’t expect Detroit to try to sneak below that line and create space though — if they intend to re-sign Avery Bradley, the Pistons figure to remain well over the cap next summer.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $75,902,175
Projection: Up to approximately $21MM in cap room
Since LeBron James returned to Cleveland in 2014, the Cavaliers have spent more money than any other NBA team on player salaries and tax payments, so it’s somewhat surprising to see the club with only $76MM in guaranteed commitments for 2018/19.
Of course, the only reason the Cavs’ projected team salary is so modest is because James and his $35MM+ player option aren’t included. Neither is Isaiah Thomas, another free-agent-to-be. And neither is Iman Shumpert, who seems like a good bet to exercise his $11MM player option. If any of those players return to the Cavs, the team’s cap space will disappear quickly. If Cleveland actually ends up with $21MM in available cap room, the squad will look a whole lot different next season.
Chicago Bulls
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $46,648,020
Projection: Up to approximately $43MM in cap room
The Bulls, who don’t have many pricey long-term commitments on their books, could actually create up to about $52MM in cap room, but we’re adding Zach LaVine‘s cap hold to their team salary, since the club has been adamant about re-signing LaVine, one of the key pieces of this year’s Jimmy Butler trade.
Still, that leaves the Bulls with a ton of flexibility, as Nikola Mirotic‘s $12.5MM team option is the only other salary that could cut into the team’s cap room significantly. Based on recent events in Chicago, it’d very surprising if that Mirotic is still a Bull at that price – or at all – a year from now.
Indiana Pacers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $39,913,044
Projection: Up to approximately $54MM in cap room
In order to get up to $54MM in cap room, the Pacers would have to move on from several key players from this year’s squad. Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, and Al Jefferson all have partially guaranteed salaries. Thaddeus Young and Cory Joseph have player options. Lance Stephenson and Joe Young have team options. The odds that none of those players will be back are incredibly slim.
Even if the Pacers’ available cap room is ultimately much more modest than the maximum figure suggests, the team is in a pretty good spot. The Thaddeus Young and Joseph contracts aren’t toxic, and Indiana is in full control of all the other players with options or without full guarantees. That will give the Pacers the opportunity to retain the deals that are solid values and dump the rest.
Previously:
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.