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Cap Holds

May 1st, 2014 at 1:31pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Lakers have committed only about $34.1MM in guaranteed money to player salaries for 2014/15, but that doesn’t mean the team will have nearly $30MM to spend on free agents. Each of the Lakers’ own free agents will be assigned a free agent amount or “cap hold” until the player signs a new contract or the Lakers renounce his rights.

The following criteria are used for determining the amount of a free agent’s cap hold:

  • First-round pick coming off rookie contract: 250% of previous salary if prior salary was below league average; 200% of previous salary if prior salary was above league average
  • Bird player: 190% of previous salary (if below average) or 150% (if above average)
  • Early Bird player: 130% of previous salary
  • Non-Bird player: 120% of previous salary
  • Minimum-salary player: Two-year veteran’s minimum salary, unless the free agent only has one year of experience, in which case it’s the one-year veteran’s minimum.

A cap hold for a restricted free agent can vary based on his contract status. A restricted free agent’s cap hold is either his free agent amount as determined by the criteria mentioned above, or the amount of his qualifying offer, whichever is greater. Kent Bazemore and Ryan Kelly are set for restricted free agency this summer. Both earned the minimum salary this year, so if they were unrestricted free agents, their cap holds would only be worth next year’s minimum. Their status as restricted free agents bumps their cap holds to the amount of their qualifying offers — $1,115,243 and $1,016,482, respectively. The Lakers can knock their cap holds down to the minimum if they elect not to tender qualifying offers to them, making them unrestricted free agents.

No cap hold can exceed the maximum salary for which a player can sign. That’s why Pau Gasol‘s cap hold will be less than 150% of his salary this season even though the Lakers hold his Bird rights. Gasol made slightly more than the maximum salary for a veteran of 10 or more years this past season. There’s a decent chance that the maximum salary for 2014/15 could be higher than $20,250,143, which is 105% of what Gasol makes now, but it certainly won’t go high enough to allow for a cap hold worth 150% of Gasol’s pay from this season.

The Lakers have an even more unusual case in MarShon Brooks, who was traded twice this season. They have his Bird rights, but the Celtics declined the fourth year team option on his rookie scale contract before the season, so the Lakers can’t pay him more than what he would have made in the option year. That rule is in place so a team can’t circumvent the rookie scale and decline its option so it can give the player a higher salary, and it applies even if the player is traded after the option is declined, as in the case of Brooks. The Lakers faced a similar dilemma with Jordan Hill two years ago. In these cases, the cap hold is equal to the amount of the fourth-year team option.

If a team holds the rights to fewer than 12 players, cap holds worth the minimum rookie salary ($507,336) are assigned to fill out the roster. So, if Nick Young opts out of his contract and the Lakers choose to renounce their rights to all of their free agents and players on non-guaranteed contracts, the team would have three players and about $34.1MM left under contract. However, nine holds worth $507,336 would be added to the team’s cap, reducing its total cap space by about $4.6MM.

Cap holds aren’t removed from a team’s books until the player signs a new contract or has his rights renounced by the club. For instance, since John Salley never signed elsewhere after reaching free agency after the 1999/00 season, and the Lakers have never renounced him, the Lakers still have a minimum salary hold for Salley on their cap. It’s been so many years since the Lakers have gone under the cap that there’s been no reason for them to renounce their rights to players who retired long ago. Keeping those cap holds allowed the Lakers some degree of cushion to help them remain above the cap and take advantage of the mid-level exception and trade exceptions, among other advantages afforded cap teams. There’s a strong chance that Salley, Mitch Richmond, Brian Shaw, Karl Malone and others will disappear from the Lakers’ list of cap holds this summer with the team finally poised to open cap space.

The general purpose of a cap hold is to prevent teams from using room under the cap to sign free agents before using Bird rights to re-sign their own free agents. If a team wants to take advantage of its cap space, it can renounce its rights to its free agents, eliminating those cap holds. However, doing so means the team will no longer hold any form of Bird rights for those players — if the team wants to re-sign those free agents, it would have to use its cap room or another kind of cap exception.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

A Version of this post was initially published on May 1st, 2012, by Luke Adams.

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Prospect Profile: Josh Huestis

May 1st, 2014 at 8:30am CST by Zachary Links

Every year, the second round is full of project picks, but you’ll also find players who come ready to hit the ground running.  Stanford’s Josh Huestis is out to show teams that after four years of facing tough competition, he has the experience necessary to make an immediate impact.  Tough defense is the 22-year-old’s calling card but his mission is to show teams that he can be a factor on the other end of the floor as well.NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament-Dayton vs Stanford

“I’m definitely somebody who can be aggressive on the boards. I see offensive rebounding as my strong suit.  I averaged 2.5 offensive rebounds per game in college,” Huestis told Hoops Rumors, referring to his numbers in his senior year. “I can shoot the ball better than people think, too, and with more opportunities, I can do more than people think.  I’m working on ball handling and by the time the season rolls around I’ll be more comfortable attacking the basket.”

The 6’7″ forward believes that because he was asked to be a defensive anchor for the Cardinal throughout his time there, he didn’t get many chances to show what he can do with the basketball.  Some scouting reports, including a recent writeup from Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress, have knocked Huestis’ shooting range, but he’s determined to shed that rap over the next few months.  An improved shooting stroke will help inflate his stock for sure, but his value will continue to lie primarily in his defense.

“I feel like I can guard whoever anybody wants me to,” said Huestis, who has great size for the small forward position and could conceivably play the four in a smaller lineup. “I can be somebody who can guard twos and threes and fours.  I think I’m a really versatile defender.”

Huestis is coming off a performance at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament where he feels that he displayed his trademark D but didn’t do as much as he wanted to offensively. Even though things didn’t go perfectly, a number of teams reached out to Huestis and showed active interest over the course of the week.  Since then, he’s been refining all parts of his game at the Impact Basketball Academy in Las Vegas and going up against stiff competition.  Every day, Huestis works out with and against training partners like Pittsburgh product Lamar Patterson and former All-American Mike Moser.

Draft sites are quick to offer up NBA comparisons for prospects, and when asked to come up with his own, Huestis said that his game most closely resembles that of Kawhi Leonard.  Like the Spurs swingman, the Stanford standout can guard multiple positions on the floor, be a “really good glue guy,” and grab the tough rebounds.  While using a second-round choice on a draft-and-stash candidate may be enticing, it’ll be hard for teams to take a pass on a player like Huestis who can help fortify a bench immediately.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Prospect Profile: Dante Exum

April 28th, 2014 at 5:05pm CST by Zachary Links

Last year, Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart was widely viewed as the top player eligible for the 2013 draft.  This time around, he’s not being seen by most as the best player at his position.  By and large, Australia’s Dante Exum is being looked at as the best point guard in the 2014 draft.

At 6’6″, Exum has tremendous size for the one guard position with a frame reminiscent of Shaun Livingston.  On top of that, the 18-year-old (19 in July) has a wingspan that is slightly larger at 6’9″.  That size helps to make Exum a legitimate threat to score in the low post and gives him the ability to see the rim in a lot of positions that your typical point guard couldn’t.  From close range, your average-sized one guard is likely to get burned.  Exum can force a lot of switches, opening things up for the entire offense.

Exum also boasts a lightning-quick first step and overseas opponents have been struggling to stay in front of him at every level.  He’s also a very adept ball handler who can change direction in no time, allowing him to seemingly penetrate at will.  No guard in this year’s class can slash to the basket better than Exum which is why he is expected to be the first backcourt player off the board.

The Australian is more than a scorer, of course, as he’s proven himself to be a very solid floor general, both in transition and in the halfcourt set.  A quick scan through YouTube shows Exum dishing crisp passes to open teammates, putting them in prime position to score.  He’ll also trigger a fast break in no time, whether the rest of his squad is ready to get out and run or not.  Often times, you’ll see Exum take the ball wire-to-wire and finish on the other end with nine guys left in the dust.

As we’ve established, Exum is quick, athletic, and very capable of scoring at the rim, but his shooting definitely leaves something to be desired.  The book on Exum over the past few years has been that his shot is somewhat flat and doesn’t have enough of an arc to regularly find a home in the basket.  He’s made strides with it as of late, but he’s no Stephen Curry.  His off-the-dribble shot leaves much to be desired and he’ll have to improve that if he wants to be a true triple threat at the next level.

Exum’s shot selection has also been questionable in the past.  For a so-so outside shooter, he has fallen in love with his downtown shot at times, like when he hoisted up 7.7 three-pointers per 40 minutes at the FIBA Under-19 Championships in 2013 and knocked down just 33.3%. He’s also been known to force up low-probability shots closer to the rim when he’s smothered by the defense, rather than kicking out.  While these aren’t irreparable problems, they are adjustments that will have to be made.

Opinions on many of this year’s top prospects have shifted over the course of the last year, but Exum’s standing as one of the very best players in the 2014 class seems to have held up. DraftExpress has Exum ranked as the No. 5 prospect out of this group and ESPN’s Chad Ford (Insider sub. req’d) rates him as the fourth-best, but he could go in the top three depending on how the ping-pong balls fall.  The Bucks (owners of the league’s worst record), Magic (third-worst), Jazz (fourth-worst), and Lakers (sixth-worst) are all reportedly high on the guard and there’s no reason why one of those teams couldn’t tap him before Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, or Julius Randle.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

April 27th, 2014 at 6:54pm CST by Zachary Links

A look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

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Prospect Profile: Jerami Grant

April 27th, 2014 at 12:26pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Syracuse sophomore forward Jerami Grant, the son of former NBA forward Harvey Grant, announced his intention to enter the 2014 NBA Draft. Grant said, “After extensive discussions with my family and coaches, I have decided to pursue my dream of playing professional basketball and enter the 2014 NBA Draft. I am so thankful to coach [Jim] Boeheim and the rest of the Orange coaching staff for guiding me throughout my college career, and am grateful to my teammates for two incredible seasons.  I am excited to start my journey in the NBA, but I also look forward to finishing my college degree. I cannot thank my coaches, teammates and the entire Orange community enough for all of their support.”

Draft experts see Grant as a mid-to-late first round pick. In current mock drafts, DraftExpress has him going 19th, CBSSports.com puts him 16th, NBA Draft.net ranks him 20th, and Bleacher Report places him 19th, and Chad Ford of ESPN.com ranks Grant 21st on his Big Board.

Grant started 20 of 32 games for the Orange during his second season. He averaged 12.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 APG, and 0.8 SPG in 31.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .496/.000/.674. His career numbers were 7.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 0.9 APG in 21.9 minutes per contest. His career slash line was .486/.300/.641.

At this stage of his development Grant is unpolished as a player but has a high upside athletically. One of the first issues affecting his draft stock is that he doesn’t have a clearly defined NBA position, and can be categorized as a tweener. His size (6’8″) and defensive skills suggest his best fit is as a small forward, but his ball-handling and shooting touch limit him offensively. Without a solid post game and possessing a slender frame, it is unknown if he can hold up as an undersized everyday power forward. Grant does have a 7’2″ wingspan, which could help compensate for his size defensively.

“I like his size and length and athletic ability,” a player personnel director for a team in the NBA’s Western Conference said to Mike Waters of The Post-Standard. “He needs to show that he can handle the ball on the perimeter and shoot the ball on the perimeter.” Another NBA executive said that Grant should improve his overall game with another year at Syracuse. “I personally think he should stay in school,” an assistant GM for a Western Conference team said to Waters. “He’s got a lot of upside but he’s got a lot of skill development to do. I think he could really improve his draft status by staying in school.”

Offensively, Grant’s value right now is limited to scoring around the rim and in transition.  According to DraftExpress, he did most of his damage inside, where his leaping ability and touch helped him be a consistent finisher. Grant also runs the floor well, moves without the ball, and plays off his teammates. He crashes the glass aggressively, and showed excellent ability to attack the rim. Grant shot 57% at the rim in the half court and 68% in transition according to Synergy Sports Technology, which ranked him third among small forward prospects in the top 100.

Outside shooting is the biggest hole in Grant’s game at this stage in his development. He is extremely inconsistent from mid-range to the three-point line. He does not have a soft touch or a great mechanical release on his jump shot. Grant also hasn’t developed a reliable post arsenal or the advance ball-handling ability to help him create his own shot regularly one-on-one against quality defenders.

As a play-maker Grant is a team oriented player who is a willing passer and has shown flashes of being good at finding teammates in good positions to score. He is merely an average ball-handler, though. In the open court Grant can rebound the ball and push it up-court, but he has a lose handle that can be susceptible to turnovers. This season he averaged 1.2 turnovers per game.

Defensively, Grant is very active and avoids overplaying jumpers when closing out on his man. While not statistically a great shot blocker, he does not chase after blocks by leaving his position as many young defenders tend to. Grant has shown the ability to defend multiple positions, and in addition to his skills as a transition scorer, his immediate impact in the league will be felt on the defensive end. His game in this area has been compared to Shawn Marion‘s.

For a young player with limitations, one positive that can be said is that Grant is aware of them, and he doesn’t try and do things outside his skill set.  Chad Ford noted this and compared Grant to Detroit’s Josh Smith, saying, “What if [Josh] Smith had just been content doing the things he does well instead of launching ill-advised long 2s and 3s all game? Hawks fans probably stay up late at night wondering that. Well, Grant might be your answer. Like Smith, he’s a freak athlete who has versatile skills. Unlike Smith, he knows he’s not a great 3-point shooter and has taken just five all season.”

Grant is an intriguing prospect from an athletic standpoint. He has more question marks than teams would generally like in a first round selection, but he does have a high upside. Besides Marion, his game has been compared to those of Darius Miles and Anthony Randolph. I don’t see him as a starter, but if he can make the jump from Syracuse’s 2-3 zone to the more man-to-man oriented NBA, he could be valuable off the bench as a defender and a high-energy transition scorer. I definitely see a team selecting him in the first round, but I wouldn’t use a top 20 pick on a tweener with limited offensive skills. I see him going somewhere in the mid-20s.

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Prospect Profile: James Young

April 26th, 2014 at 7:07pm CST by Eddie Scarito

James Young, one of Kentucky’s six high school All-American recruits from a year ago, declared he was leaving school to play in the NBA. Young said in a statement that ”my time at Kentucky has been special to me, something I’ll always treasure, but I feel that I’m ready to take the next step to the NBA.” In recent mock drafts the consensus is that Young is a late lottery pick. DraftExpress has him going 15th, Bleacher Report slots him in 12th, and CBSSports.com places him 15th. Young is also currently ranked 15th on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

Coach John Calipari weighed in on Young, saying ”From Day 1, the NBA people who came to our practices in the preseason raved about him. He’s done everything we’ve asked of him all season, investing himself in his brothers for the betterment of the team, and I think we all saw the end result in the tournament and Final Four. Whatever team drafts James is not only getting a superb athlete, they are getting the ultimate teammate.”

At 6’6″ with a 6’11″ wingspan, Young has prototypical size for an NBA wing player, and has a 215-pound frame that should continue to develop over time. He doesn’t possess tremendous speed or a quick burst off the dribble, but Young is an exceptionally smooth athlete who can play above the rim and score in bunches. His numbers on the season were 14.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, and 0.8 SPG in 32.4 minutes per game. His slash line was .407/.349/.706.

Young will have to shoot the ball well to succeed in the NBA because he showed little ability to fill up a stat sheet. He’s not much of a playmaker, which could be an issue at the next level. Young can struggle to get separation when he puts the ball on the floor, and he lacks creativity with his ball-handling and doesn’t change tempo or direction well. He’s an average passer, but he tends to make mistakes with the ball and averaged 1.9 turnovers a game, not great numbers considering he was rarely the primary ball handler at Kentucky.

Young’s ability to get shots off over defenders makes him a scoring threat, but it also limits his efficiency. The left-handed shooter struggled from the perimeter for long stretches this season thanks to the high amount of contested jump shots he attempted. According to DraftExpress, almost three-quarters of Young’s 199 catch-and-shoot jump shots this season were defended. He connected on 45% of his open shot attempts but hit only 32% while being guarded. Since uncontested shots are at a premium in the NBA, Young will have to improve his consistency in this area.

If he doesn’t improve his shot, 2-guards or wings who struggle with offensive consistency don’t have much value to NBA teams if they don’t contribute on defense. Young has some defensive tools, but he lacks natural instincts in this facet of the game. He has a low defensive IQ, and that isn’t always something a player can easily change.

One indicator of Young’s lack of defensive ability is his abnormally low steal rate for the position he plays. Despite all of Young’s athleticism he’s averaging less than a steal per game in over 32 minutes of action. ESPN’s analytics expert Kevin Pelton wrote (Insider subscription required) that “Historically steal rate has outsized the importance of physical tools in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA.”

Young is a solid rebounder for his position but is still figuring things out on this end of the floor. His fundamentals need work, as illustrated by Young’s tendency not to get in a proper stance, allowing smaller, less athletic players to get position on him. DraftExpress noted that Young’s poor fundamentals, average awareness, and lack of lateral speed doesn’t give him outstanding upside in this area as a pro, but he has the capacity to improve his effectiveness over time.

Young is far from a sure thing and lacks a complete skill set as a player, but he is only 19 years old and has a wealth of potential. Young has the foundation of necessary skills to be an effective scorer down the line, which is something in high demand in the NBA. His upside at the pro level has been compared to that of Arron Afflalo‘s. Like Afflalo, I believe it will take a few years for Young to blossom into an effective rotation player. While I don’t believe he’ll be a superstar at the next level, I do think his upside is higher than that of fellow shooting guards Gary Harris or Nik Stauskus in the long run. If he doesn’t markedly improve his defense though, he’ll limit his usefulness to being a sixth man. Unless he blows teams away during his pre-draft workouts, I have him being taken after Harris in the 10-15 range of the draft.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Dwyane Wade

April 26th, 2014 at 8:39am CST by Cray Allred

A three-time champion, Dwyane Wade could find himself in a peculiar position this summer. This offseason will be the first of two opportunities for the guard to get out of his contract early, and his decision will likely be tied to what he and teammates LeBron James and Chris Bosh decide to do collectively. All three players have early termination options this offseason and player options for 2015/16, a structure they formed by design when they joined forces in hopes of forming a dynasty before the 2010/11 season. NBA executives reportedly expect the trio to terminate their contracts but re-sign with Miami next season. While they made moderate sacrifices to squeeze into Miami’s salary books together, they aren’t expected to give up millions of dollars in salary to benefit the Heat cap structure this time around.

Ranked ninth in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings, Wade would risk the most by becoming a free agent before his six-year, nearly $108MM contract runs its full course. While James and Bosh could find max contracts in a number of cities, it seems doubtful that teams would be jumping at the chance to offer over roughly $20MM in annual salary to a 32-year-old who missed 74 games over the last three seasons due to knee injury and regimented rest. It’s unlikely that there are many teams, if any, outside of Miami that could afford to regularly rest a player of Wade’s caliber while paying him more than most or all of their other players.

Wade could play it safe and ride out his contract, but he would then face an even more precarious scenario at the age of 34. A team that believed in his talents enough to pursue him in free agency would presumably think he is still capable of performing as one of the best guards in the league for years to come. It could be worth accepting an annual pay decrease if it means securing a lengthy extension that guarantees more money overall. There haven’t been any teams legitimately linked to Wade at this point as the league waits on the Miami trio to makes their moves. The last time Wade was on the open market, his hometown Bulls made a serious play for his services.

Wade’s game has transformed significantly since taking a backseat to LeBron in the Heat offense. The year before the big-three era began, Wade averaged 30.2 points per game and stood tallest among the Heat legends. His scoring average has decreased each year since, with his 19.0 clip this season a career low outside of his rookie season. His 2013/14 per-game averages in minutes played, field goals attempted, free throws attempted, steals, and blocks are also at career-worst levels for Wade, not including his rookie year. On the other hand, he has adapted to his reduced role with improved efficiency. His true shooting percentage of .588 this season is a career high, as is his field goal percentage of .545, well above his career average of .492.

Wade has always been an abysmal three-point shooter, and he hasn’t improved at all as a veteran. He only took 0.6 threes per game this year, and only hit on 28.1% of those attempts. As his knee issues continue to be a concern, his reliance on a brutally physical offensive game is somewhat troubling. All aging players lose athleticism, and if Wade’s knee problems cause his driving and slashing abilities to decline more quickly than with most players, he doesn’t have a long-term skill set to fall back on. Shooting guards that can’t shoot from distance aren’t common in the NBA, and typically have to play defense at an elite level to stay on the floor. Wade is one of the best instinctive defenders in the game, but deteriorating athleticism would damage his defensive ability as well.

Wade has built his Hall-of-Fame career in Miami, and he has expressed a desire to play there until he retires. Kobe Bryant‘s latest extension fortified Wade’s inclination to stay, but many around the league pilloried the wisdom of such a lucrative deal for a player on the downside of his career. It would be difficult for the Heat to avoid repeat-offender tax penalties if they extend Wade significantly above market value and they also retain James and Bosh.

If Wade does opt out, my guess is that Wade’s fate as a free agent will be influenced as much by Miami’s thinking as his own. Pat Riley has been shrewd in building a championship roster without incurring enormous tax bills, but the repeater tax looms if the team moves forward with three max contracts. It would certainly be unpopular with the fan base, but if Wade’s departure would open the door for Miami to free up space for better role players or even another, younger star to complement the final stretch of LeBron’s prime, the Heat might just walk through it.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rudy Gay

April 25th, 2014 at 4:02pm CST by Chuck Myron

Rudy Gay was so torn about whether to exercise his $19.3MM+ player option for 2014/15 when the month began that he couldn’t so much as identify the criteria he’d use to come to his decision. He now has little more than two months to make a choice that seemed a certainty in the wake of his trade to the Kings in December, when he appeared ready to opt in. He spent the rest of the season reviving his game to the point that accepting a season of guaranteed maximum salary is no longer a slam dunk.

The former eighth overall pick hit a nadir in Toronto at the beginning of the season, becoming the epitome of the inefficient albatross so many of his analytically minded detractors had regarded him to be. He was shooting just 38.8%, a career low, and yet he was taking a career high 18.6 shots per game through 18 contests with the Raptors, 12 of which were losses. His PER was 14.7, a tick below the mark of an average NBA player.

Enter an NBA owner and advanced metrics devotee who had a different view of Gay. Vivek Ranadive has said repeatedly that his numbers suggested that Gay would perform much better with the Kings, for whom he could be a secondary option to the inside presence of DeMarcus Cousins. Gay was a 20.1 PPG scorer in a partial season in Sacramento, an average identical to the one he posted during 2007/08, his highest scoring season of his eight years in the NBA. He shot 48.2% with the Kings, which would have exceeded his all-time best mark. He also dished out 3.1 assists per game, a volume great enough to set a new career high of 2.9 for the season.

The advanced metrics tell a similar story. His PER spiked to 19.6 in Sacramento, 1.8 points better than his previous career best. He notched .114 win shares per 48 minutes on a team that finished with 28 wins. Tellingly, the average distance of his shot attempts decreased to 11.6, nearly a foot closer than his career average, according to Basketball Reference.

Ranadive had coveted him for months and reportedly was the catalyst behind the trade. There probably isn’t an owner who’s a greater fan of Gay’s, or more willing to open his checkbook for the Octagon Sports client. Perhaps Gay feels as though the time to capitalize on this is now, before any regression happens, before another losing season in Sacramento spoils the owner’s mood, and before the Kings make another move that ties up their books.

There hasn’t been much chatter about an extension after it seemed in the wake of the trade that there was a decent chance it would become a topic of discussion. Former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo had broached the subject before his ouster last summer. Still, unless Gay opts in and signs an extension after the end of June, it could only run two years longer than his current deal. It wouldn’t give him the kind of long-term financial security that a new, five-year deal from the Kings could provide.

Even a four-year deal with an interested suitor from outside Sacramento would probably ensure more money than an extension would. Some GMs said early in the season that he wouldn’t be worthy of mid-level exception salaries, but that group probably doesn’t include Suns GM Ryan McDonough, as Phoenix appears to have him in its sights. The Suns have been linked to a number of potential free agents this summer, as they’re set to have plenty of cap flexibility even with a new max deal for Eric Bledsoe.

Phoenix, coming off a 48-win season, might be an intriguing destination for Gay, who suggested in December that he wants to play for a winning team. He made similar comments when he spoke about his option decision at the beginning of the month, saying that while he can see himself continuing to play for a rebuilding team, it’s not ideal. Gay was part of a high-scoring trio with Cousins and Isaiah Thomas in Sacramento, but the Kings are miles from contention, and Thomas is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.

Gay has expressed a fondness for Sacramento and said in February that he appreciates the on-court freedom Kings coach Michael Malone and his staff have given him. Gay’s arrival in Sacramento was certainly a boon for his on-court production, even if it meant joining a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2005/06. The vast majority of that streak of lottery appearances was under the ownership of the Maloof family. Ranadive was right about Gay’s improved play this season, and his complete reboot of the front office and coaching staff since buying the team last year is reason for optimism. Sacramento has a decent chance to make significant improvements between now and the end of Gay’s next deal.

That next deal is one I think he chooses to sign with Sacramento after opting out of the final season of his existing contract. Hoops Rumors readers pegged his value at between $10MM and $15MM before his time in Sacramento began, and I think he’ll warrant salaries at the high end of that spectrum from Ranadive and company, if not slightly more. That kind of long-term money will more than make up for sacrificing his lucrative option year.

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Prospect Profile: Shabazz Napier

April 24th, 2014 at 9:21pm CST by Charlie Adams

Shabazz Napier finished out his impressive four-year career at UConn in spectacular fashion, winning his second NCAA championship over the preseason favorite Kentucky Wildcats. The point guard’s impeccable shooting and must-win mentality propelled the seventh-seeded Huskies to four consecutive upsets en route to their title matchup in Texas. Although generally considered a second-round pick prior to the Big Dance, his outstanding tourney performance now has Napier being discussed as a potential first-rounder.

During his senior season, Napier averaged 18.0 points on 42.9% shooting while dishing out 4.9 assists per contest. His ability to shift gears and move quickly with the ball allowed him to find ways around defenders in college, even without explosive athleticism. Napier’s biggest asset during his time in the NCAA was his top-notch scoring ability from all over the floor; he drained 46.5% of shots beyond the arc throughout his most recent tournament play and was noted for several clutch shots that ended up being the deciding factor in games.

A player profile from Jacob Stallard of NBADraft.net notes how Napier was criticized during his freshman and sophomore seasons for so-so shot selection and a penchant for taking contested jumpers rather than finding open teammates. He was able to improve his decision making abilities during his last two years and become a better distributor. He’ll likely need to further develop this portion of his game since he won’t be able to drive to the basket quite so easily once he reaches the NBA, and finding the open man is perhaps the most valuable skill an undersized point guard can possess.

His defense proved to be adequate in college, where he was able to nab 1.8 steals per game over the course of his four-year career. There are obvious concerns that his diminutive 6’1″ height and 6’2″ wingspan will limit his ability to defend at the next level, and it’s tough to argue that his small stature and less-than-stellar speed won’t make it difficult to guard bigger, more athletic NBA competition on a nightly basis. Still, shorter players, like Chris Paul, have been able to find ways to excel on defense despite height disadvantages. Napier will need to work to figure out how to succeed on defense without great size if he wants to see major minutes.

Seniors have been selected less frequently than collegians from any other class, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors recently detailed, likely due in large part to the perception that their potential for development is limited. Napier is actually older than plenty of NBA players, including the likes of All-Stars such as Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, but Napier’s age and experience in this season’s tournament could actually stand to benefit his stock for teams seeking a player who can contribute minutes in his first year. The latest mock draft from Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress sees Napier being taken 28th overall, while NBADraft.net‘s newest mock has Napier going 12th.

It’s an understatement to say there’s disparity regarding Napier’s projected draft stock. There are reports that say he’s still a second-round pick, while his tournament play has over-inflated his draft projection in some circles. Still others peg him as a true first-rounder capable of making an impact wherever he goes. The team that selects him will land a player with terrific scoring instincts and a knack for excelling in big time situations, but they’ll also need to recognize the limitations his age and physical tools will have on his overall game.

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10-Day Contract Trends In 2013/14

April 24th, 2014 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

A total of 41 players signed 10-day contracts this past season, up from 36 last year. It’s a greater volume of 10-day signees than in any season since 2006/07, the first represented in our 10-Day Tracker. There’s plenty of other data that can be gleaned from this year’s slew of 10-day signings, as we detail below:

  • There were 16 players who signed one 10-day contract with a team, but didn’t re-sign.
  • Almost as many — 14 — signed two 10-day contracts with a team, but didn’t re-sign.
  • A dozen players signed two 10-day contracts with a team before re-signing on a deal for at least the rest of the season.
  • Five players signed one 10-day contract and followed with a deal covering at least the rest of the season with the same team.
  • Shannon Brown, Dewayne Dedmon, Cartier Martin, Darius Morris, James Nunnally and Jarvis Varnado all signed at least one 10-day contract with two teams.
  • ASM Sports and Wasserman Media Group were the agencies with the most clients signing 10-day deals. Each represented four signees.
  • The Sixers led the NBA with 23 players appearing in a game this season, so it’s no surprise that they signed an NBA-high five players to 10-day contracts. That doesn’t include their deal with Adonis Thomas. The Sixers referred to it as a 10-day contract, but it covered the final 10 days of the regular season, making it analogous to a rest-of-season deal.
  • No team signed four players to 10-day contracts, but the Hawks, Celtics, Bulls, Cavaliers, Clippers, Bucks, Thunder, Kings and Spurs signed three each.
  • Ten teams — the Raptors, Pacers, Pistons, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks and Pelicans — didn’t sign anyone to a 10-day contract this season. I noted in March that they were unlikely to do so.

Feel free to play around with the tracker and see if you can identify a few more trends.

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