Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Hoops Rumors Originals

Prospect Profile: Marcus Smart

March 21st, 2014 at 8:39pm CST by Eddie Scarito

What a difference one season can make. If Marcus Smart would have entered last year’s draft he would have been in the discussion for the first overall pick. He had earned Big 12 Player of the Year honors and was seen as the top player in an otherwise underwhelming draft class. Instead, Smart opted to return to Oklahoma State for another season, and now finds himself unlikely to even be the first point guard to come off the board.

Back in April of last year when he announced his choice, Smart said, “There’s a lot of speculation going. I’ve been bashed and criticized that I probably made a mistake of coming back here, the NBA will be there, I should have took it, and this year’s draft class is much weaker than next year’s. But I think I made the right decision. All that was telling me, from those people that said that, is they don’t have confidence in my ability and my game to compete with those players next year. You guys have given me that confidence to do that, so I chose to stay here. I’m aware of how much money I am giving up.”

Smart’s sophomore numbers have remained mostly in line with his freshman production. He did raise his shooting percentage slightly, from .404 to .425, which helped him increase his scoring average, but everything else is nearly identical. This can be looked at a couple of ways. The positive spin is that he has shown remarkable consistency in his game and proved last season was no fluke. The negative perspective would be that he hasn’t shown much growth offensively in his second year. Smart’s season stats are 17.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, and 2.8 SPG in 32.5 minutes per contest. His slash line is .425/.302/.736. His career numbers are 16.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 2.9 SPG over 33.0 minutes. His career slash line is .414/.297/.756.

Shooting is the main aspect of Smart’s game that he will need to continue to improve on in order to become a more effective offensive player at the next level. He has solid form and looks to have good overall mechanics, but he is just not a consistent shooter at this stage in his development. He is a 30.3% spot-up shooter, 22% coming off of screens, and in isolation he shoots 30.8% from the field, according to NBA Draft Insider.com. Part of the issue is that Smart displays poor shot selection, which has been criticized during his college career. Smart would be better served to stop settling for long-range jump shots and to instead take better advantage of his explosiveness by driving to the basket more. He has shown a slight improvement in this area, raising his free throw attempts per game from 6.5 his freshman season to 7.7 this year.

Smart has the capability of playing either of the guard positions, but he’s spent most of his career at point guard. As a playmaker Smart is an excellent passer within the flow of an offense, but creating for teammates off the dribble isn’t his specialty. Smart is a score-first point guard. He’s also rates as just an average ball-handler, but he has improved in that area this season, cutting his turnovers from 3.4 to 2.5 per game.

His build is NBA ready, and at 6’4″, 220 pounds, he will be able to compete physically in the league right away. With his size and strength Smart is able to defend multiple positions. He has good body control and moves well with his man on or off the ball. When guarding ball-handlers he has shown quick hands that he uses to bother his man and force turnovers. When defending off the ball he tracks the ball well, gets in passing lanes to make plays, and applies timely double-teams to force turnovers. It is as a defender that Smart has the most immediate value in the NBA. His 3.4 steals per 40 minutes shows just how active a player he is on the defensive end. Smart has to use his basketball IQ and strength to his advantage as he isn’t the fastest player, and he may struggle against some of the quicker guards in the league.

Smart has shown flashes of immaturity during his time at Oklahoma State. There was an incident where he kicked a chair out of frustration during a game against West Virginia, which was a relatively minor flare-up. The major incident occurred a few weeks later during a game versus Texas Tech, when Smart pushed a vocal Red Raiders fan. The fan reportedly used a racial slur toward Smart, but the NCAA still suspended the point guard for three contests. “Unfortunately for Smart, there is going to be a fallout after this,” an NBA executive told Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports. “His reputation has taken a hit. That is all people and the media are going to want to talk about with him before and after the draft. Some teams won’t want to deal with that.” Yet when asked if the push affects Smart’s draft stock, an NBA GM told Spears that his decline on draft boards was solely because of concerns about his game.

NBA teams have shown a willingness to overlook incidents like these in lieu of talent. Smart also just turned 20 years old on March 6th, and he has plenty of time to mature. Based on recent mock drafts, Smart is still projected to be a top-10 pick. NBADraft.net has him being taken fourth, Draft Express has him sixth, and Smart also currently sits sixth on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big Board.

While he doesn’t have the unlimited raw athleticism of some of the other prospects in this draft, Smart’s strength and explosiveness coupled with his understanding of the game should assure him of being drafted in the middle of the lottery. There are no questions about his drive or overall skill set, but he’ll have to significantly improve his outside shot to be a star at the next level. Smart will also have to show he has matured and developed a thicker skin to quiet down any talk of him being a risky selection. Scouts have compared his game to Baron Davis and Jason Kidd‘s, and Draft Insider.com has projected his “ceiling” as Dwyane Wade and his “basement” as Marcus Banks. His ability to defend both guard positions will make him valuable, and that should guarantee him a roster spot for years, but if he can’t improve his outside shooting, he won’t achieve greatness at the next level.

Repost Share Send via email

Players Who Can Earn Higher Qualifying Offers

March 21st, 2014 at 4:32pm CST by Chuck Myron

The stretch run of the season matters a lot to members of this summer’s free agent class. But the effect of what happens between now and the end of the regular season will perhaps be more well-defined for Trevor Booker, Brian Roberts and Jordan Crawford than anyone else. That’s because all three have a chance to trigger the league’s starter criteria and boost the value of their qualifying offers.

Teams must extend qualifying offers to their restricted free agents to reserve the right to match offers that other teams might make. Without a qualifying offer, a restricted free agent becomes an unrestricted free agent. For most players, the amounts of their qualifying offers are set in stone, and they’re usually determined by draft position. Whether or not the starter criteria come into play depends on whether or not a player logs at least 2,000 minutes or 41 starts during the season prior to his free agency, or hits those benchmarks over the average of the final two seasons before he becomes a free agent. Here’s what’s at stake:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive the same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.

These four players have already triggered higher qualifying offers for this summer:

  • Avery Bradley, Celtics ($4,677,708) — would have been $3,581,302
  • Greivis Vasquez, Raptors ($4,677,708) — would have been $3,203,780
  • Isaiah Thomas, Kings ($2,875,131) — would have been $1,148,163
  • P.J. Tucker, Suns ($2,875,131) — would have been $1,148,163

Conversely, three will likely see their qualifying offers reduced:

  • Ekpe Udoh, Bucks ($4,268,609) — would have been $5,962,377
  • Ed Davis, Grizzlies ($4,268,609) — would have been $4,361,788
  • Patrick Patterson, Raptors ($4,268,609) — would have been $4,319,474

Booker, Roberts and Crawford are toss-ups, as we explain here:

  • Trevor Booker, Wizards — This appears to be the most intriguing case. Booker could be in line for a higher qualifying injury because of Nene‘s injury. Booker has been starting in his place, and if he makes 10 more starts over Washington’s final 14 games, his qualifying offer increases from $3,420,443 to $4,677,708. Nene is already in the middle of his original four-to-six week timetable for a return, so if he comes back anytime soon, Booker will end up with the lower qualifying offer.
  • Brian Roberts, Pelicans — An injury also affected Roberts’ case. He became the starter at point guard when Jrue Holiday went down with injury in January, and with Holiday lost for the season, it looks like Roberts will make the 41 starts needed to raise his qualifying offer from $1,115,243 to $2,875,131. He’s seven starts shy, and the Pelicans have 15 games left.
  • Jordan Crawford, Warriors — He’d have to average 28.5 minutes over the last 12 games for the Warriors, or start half of those contests. Both are long shots, but if he accomplishes either, his qualifying offer would escalate from $3,206,867 to $4,677,708.

Basketball Insiders and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

Repost Share Send via email

Teams With Sunk Costs For 2014/15

March 19th, 2014 at 5:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

When the Sixers waived Eric Maynor on Monday, they did so even though he had a 2014/15 player option for more than $2.1MM. Assuming we don’t hear late news of a waiver claim today, the Sixers will owe Maynor that money, regardless of whether or not he intended to exercise the option at the end of the season. We haven’t heard any suggestion that the Sixers will use the stretch provision to soften the blow, meaning that they’ll enter the summer with a significant part of their 2014/15 cap figure already accounted for by a player who won’t play at all for them next season.

Maynor’s salary is a pittance compared to what Orlando already has committed to ex-Magic players for next season. The Magic didn’t use the stretch provision when they waived Glen Davis shortly after the trade deadline, meaning he’s presumably on the books for his full $6.6MM salary next season. Most reports indicated that Davis participated in a buyout arrangement, so perhaps he gave up a chunk of that amount. The terms of his buyout remain unknown. The Magic also waived Al Harrington before the season began. His contract for this season and next was only 50% guaranteed, but he’s still due more than $3.8MM for 2014/15. That amount could be lowered slightly if Harrington signs with another team, allowing the Magic to exercise their set-off rights. The same is true with Davis.

Still, Orlando figures to lead the league by a wide margin in terms of sunk costs for 2014/15, and that doesn’t even take into account the cash they still owe Gilbert Arenas, whom they waived via the amnesty provision. Amnestied salary doesn’t count against the cap, so we’re not including it for the purposes of this post. The Magic could be on the hook for more than $10.4MM combined for Davis and Harrington next season.

Here’s the complete list of teams that already know they’ll have former players counting against the cap 2014/15. Again, this doesn’t count players waived via the amnesty clause.

Basketball Insiders and ShamSports were used in the creation of this post.

Repost Share Send via email

Free Agent Stock Watch Series

March 19th, 2014 at 8:58am CST by Chuck Myron

The NBA’s regular season ends in four weeks. That means players on expiring contracts are running out of opportunities to prove their worth, and that’s especially true for anyone on a team that isn’t bound for the postseason. So, it’s time to start looking at soon-to-be free agents across the league and gauge their value.

Hoops Rumors will examine several players who are a part of the 2014 free agent class. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore what a player brings to a club, what sort of earnings he can expect on his next contract, teams that could be in the market for the player, and where the player might want to end up, along with any other relevant factors.

Below is a list of the players we’ve profiled so far. They’re in alphabetical order by last name, and potential restricted free agents will have an (R) by their names. You can find this list, which we’ll continue to update, anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.”

Repost Share Send via email

Free Agent Stock Watch: LeBron James

March 18th, 2014 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

If LeBron James has learned anything in the nearly four years since he took his talents to South Beach, it’s not to create another frenzy about his next free agent move. This time, the four-time MVP’s choice will simply be a decision, and not “The Decision,” the title of the ESPN telecast on which he announced his intention to sign with the Heat in 2010. James told media at the beginning of the season that he wouldn’t address his ability to opt out of his contract and hit the market this summer, and he’s largely kept his word. The vacuum of information from James himself has led to speculation and rumors, but not nearly as much as has revolved around Carmelo Anthony, who made it clear before the season that he wants to opt out and become a free agent.

Another reason why there hasn’t been much hype around James is the success that he and the Heat are enjoying. There’s been no 27-game win streak like last year, but the Heat remain a strong title contender, and if they win their third straight championship, it would seem counterintuitive for James not to try for a fourth. James, in a rare break from his silence about his potential free agency, said last month that he couldn’t envision himself leaving the Heat, though he insisted that he won’t make up his mind until the season is over. A report soon thereafter from Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio indicated that most NBA executives reportedly feel as though it’s a two-team race between the Heat and the Cavaliers, with the Heat way out in front. Amico wrote much the same today, though he cautions that most of it is merely educated guesswork from people around the league.

A confidant of James recently revealed to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Phil Jackson‘s arrival in New York would prompt the superstar to at least consider signing with the Knicks. That wouldn’t have otherwise happened thanks in part to James’ falling out with the Creative Artists Agency, his former representation and a firm with close ties to the Knicks. New York remains a long shot regardless of Jackson and CAA because the Knicks lack cap flexibility for next summer. The team would surely do all that it could to trade away salary and clear room for James if he wanted to sign there, but that wouldn’t be an easy task, particularly with Amar’e Stoudemire‘s cap-clogging $23.4MM salary for 2014/15.

Still, a lack of cap flexibility didn’t stop Brian Windhorst and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com from writing in February that the Clippers are “perhaps the most serious competitor” the Heat have for James. A source close to James told Windhorst and Shelburne that the 29-year-old will consider teams without cap room. That means the Heat would have to cooperate in a sign-and-trade, and executives around the league think they’d ask for Blake Griffin from the Clippers if James insisted on such a move. Miami would probably hold out for similar ransoms from other capped-out teams, and James could be less inclined to sign with those clubs if they’re stripped of other significant talent. The Clippers could work out salary-dumping moves with other teams to open cap space, but those trades would also probably mean parting with a key contributor or two.

James, like the other two Heat stars, isn’t planning a hometown discount for the Heat, according to Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News, and that suggests that the Rich Paul client is looking for the maximum payday wherever he goes. He could make slightly more than $115MM over five years from the Heat and close to $85.5MM over four years from another team, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors explained before the season. That nearly $30MM chasm would be mitigated by a new contract that gives James the maximum salary in what would otherwise be the fifth year of a deal with the Heat, meaning the difference is actually only about $6MM. Still, that doesn’t take into account changes that could come about if the league and players, as expected, opt out of the collective bargaining agreement in the summer of 2017, when James would only be three years into his next deal. There’s no telling if James will still be an all-world force after four more years, when he’ll be 33. So, a legitimate financial incentive exists for James to sign a new five-year max deal with the Heat this summer.

Stll, the most lucrative path might be for James to opt into his current deal for at least one more season, since that would give him a higher 2014/15 salary than he could get in any new contract. Amico’s latest report casts that as unlikely, given the general assumption that most NBA players enjoy being the subject of free agent recruitment. It’s certainly no given that James will opt out, however. I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts in, particularly since it would allow him to make as much money as possible next season while still granting him the flexibility to make a choice again next summer, when he’d hold a player option for 2015/16.

The notion that James might not even become a free agent this summer makes every team aside from the Heat something of a long shot to sign him. The Cavs make sense as the leading non-Miami candidate for him, since James has spent the vast majority of his life in northeast Ohio and still owns a house in his native Akron. Of course, James also has a house in South Florida, too, and he didn’t win a championship until he fled Cleveland. The Cavs don’t appear anywhere close to title contention these days. The odds that they’ll overtake the Hawks for the final playoff berth this season are growing worse, seemingly by the day. Kyrie Irving is already a marquee player, and former No. 4 overall picks Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson are on the rise, but even with James, the Cavs wouldn’t approach the sort of “super team” label that was affixed to the Heat in 2010. The presence of James would ostensibly make Cleveland a more attractive free agent destination, but no superstars signed with the team when James was there the first time.

There’s a team that’s even lower in this year’s standings that might have a better shot at surrounding James with free agent talent. There’s been precious little talk connecting James to the Lakers since a July report from Shelburne and Windhorst noted that the Lakers had him in their sights for 2014. That was before the Lakers signed Kobe Bryant to a two-year, $48.5MM extension that kicks in for 2014/15, compromising the team’s cap space. They’d still have enough room for James this summer, plus perhaps another top-tier free agent in 2015, when Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge and others could become available. Bryant’s ability to recover from a season lost almost in its entirety because of injuries could be the stumbling block to their pursuit of James, since he won’t have a chance to see the 35-year-old shooting guard perform in an NBA game this year. If there’s fear about how Wade, at 32, will hold up, the same is true about Bryant.

The uncertainty over where James will end up next season will make his choice a major story at some point, regardless of how little insight he gives us about his intentions. It won’t be like 2010, but James probably won’t exactly get to enjoy a quiet start to his summer vacation. At least a few teams will probably hold off on other business until they know what James is going to do. I expect he’ll attempt to defuse the hubbub with as quick a decision as possible, and if he feels strongly about staying with the Heat, he might make an announcement well in advance of July 1st, when he’s set to become a free agent. As soon as the Heat are either eliminated from contention or lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, the attention will zero in on the league’s pre-eminent star. What happens from there will shape the 2014 free agent market, the 2014/15 season, and, depending on his choice, the 2015 free agent market, too.

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Andrew Wiggins

March 17th, 2014 at 8:01pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Few players have entered their freshman season as hyped as Andrew Wiggins. Before he even set foot inside Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas, the media was anointing Wiggins as the next LeBron James, regardless of the fact that James never played one game at the collegiate level. That’s a tough pedigree for any young player to have to live up to, especially when his personality and game is so much different from James’. It’s turned out to be an up-and-down season for Wiggins, who just turned 19 last month, but he’s been playing his best basketball down the stretch and has regained his spot as the top-ranked player in the upcoming NBA draft. He’s currently ranked first in updated mock drafts at Draft Express and CBSSports.com, and he tops Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s big board.

The criticisms of his game and his production have been harsh and unforgiving at times, much harsher than the freshman deserves. After his first game in a Jayhawk uniform, a night that saw him score 16 points, his performance was deemed merely “adequate.” Those critiques continued as the season progressed and Wiggins has been called everything from “disappointing” to “underwhelming.”

Wiggins’ performance has been somewhat of a roller coaster ride, as he’s highly effective one night and comes up soft the next. NBA scouts have complained that he lacks a killer instinct, or desire to be the “alpha” on the court, and has been knocked for being too deferential to his teammates. Wiggins has been unselfish almost to a fault at times, and he has seemed hesitant to attack the basket and make the most of his great finishing abilities. He can be too willing to crank up shots from the perimeter, which lowers his overall production and efficiency. Even when he does take it strong to the rim, Wiggins tends to settle for lower percentage shots. He has also shown a tendency to pull up his dribble too soon and take to the air too far from the hoop, resulting in pull-up jumpers, runners, or scoop shots, rather than use his outstanding vertical to dunk or draw fouls.

One of the big questions about Wiggins entering college was whether he would exhibit the assertiveness to try to take over games on a regular basis against both elite and average competition. At Huntington Prep School, he often showed his immense potential and had some monster games. But there were other times when his coaches had to try different ways to motivate him, because he could seem complacent against competition that he deemed beneath him.

Wiggins’ numbers on the year are solid but not spectacular. He’s averaged 17.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, and 1.2 SPG in 32.6 minutes per contest. His slash line is .449/.350/.768. His highest scoring output was when he dropped 41 points on West Virginia, but he has failed to reach double figures in five contests, including a season-low three points on only five shots versus Oklahoma State.

Some scouts have compared him to Rudy Gay. His greatest strengths are his quick first step, superior athleticism, and long, gliding stride, all of which should make him an offensive threat at the next level. He stands 6’8″, but he has a 6’11” wingspan, and though he’s a bit thin, he can add muscle to his 200-pound frame as he matures. Wiggins has a good outside shot but is a streaky shooter. His favorite area on the floor is the corner, where he likes to spot up or cut along the baseline for lobs. He’s shown the ability to create separation off the dribble for pull-up jumpers, but this will be more difficult to accomplish against the larger and more physical defenders in the NBA. Wiggins also has displayed good court vision, and he’s an able and willing passer.

The weaknesses in Wiggins’ game are his inconsistent motor and tendency to drift at times. Wiggins isn’t a physical player, which will make guarding small forwards difficult, and because of this he projects more as a shooting guard. His lack of strength also affects his ability to be a productive rebounder. But at only 19, he has plenty of room to improve in this area. He’s still unrefined as a ball-handler, and sometimes he has trouble against aggressive ball pressure. Scouts have also noted that he has difficulty converting on drives to his left.

The final verdict on Wiggins is that he is an extremely athletic prospect with loads of potential. He has shown remarkable improvement during the course of his freshman season, and there is no reason to think that he won’t be a successful pro. He needs to become more of an aggressive player if he wants to reach superstar level, but playing against NBA-caliber talent every night should keep him motivated. He has handled all the hype and criticism very well, which shows a maturity beyond his age. If Wiggins continues his hot play in the NCAA tournament, he will further solidify his standing at the top of the draft rankings. He is guaranteed to be a top-three pick, and no one will be surprised if he is taken first overall.

Repost Share Send via email

Hoops Rumors Originals

March 16th, 2014 at 6:31pm CST by Zachary Links

A look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff..

  • Chuck Myron broke down early termination options.
  • Eddie Scarito asked Hoops Rumors readers who will coach the Knicks next season.
  • We highlighted the best comments from readers in this week’s Featured Feedback.
  • DId you miss out on this week’s chat?  Get caught up here.
Repost Share Send via email

Early Termination Options

March 11th, 2014 at 3:19pm CST by Chuck Myron

LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are among the luminaries facing summer decisions about whether to exercise the early termination options in their contracts. Early termination options, or ETOs, are opportunities for players to free themselves from their contracts before they run to term, as the name suggests. They’re essentially player options, but with a few tweaks.

They were originally designed to give players a second chance to escape from their deals, since player options can only cover one season. That’s why James, Bosh and Wade all have early termination options for this summer and player options for 2015 as part of their contracts. The Heat stars signed under the previous collective bargaining agreement. The new CBA prevents deals from running longer than five seasons, and since early termination options may only be included in five-year pacts, contracts can no longer contain both an ETO and a player option.

That ETOs are only allowed in five-year deals also means that most of the players who hold ETOs are marquee names, since few others sign deals that cover five seasons. It also means that going forward, ETOs will be exclusively for free agents who re-sign with their teams via Bird rights, since there’s no other way to obtain a five-year contract in the new CBA.

ETOs allow teams and players slightly more room for negotiation than standard player options do, since the salary in a player option year can’t be any lower than in the previous season. There’s no such rule with an ETO, so players can have the contract front loaded, with an ETO season at a reduced salary around as insurance against an injury or decline in play. If the player is still performing at a high level after four seasons, he can exercise the early termination option and seek another lucrative contract. Teams may also benefit from this rule, similarly using the cheaper fifth season as protection against a drop-off in the player’s production. Still, no existing contract with an ETO is structured this way, in large measure because many of them are for the maximum salary, which precludes front-loading.

A player who signs a deal with a trade kicker stands to benefit if the contract also includes an early termination option. A trade kicker is a bonus that a player receives when he’s traded, and it’s usually equal to a percentage of the money remaining on the deal. Standard player option seasons don’t count toward trade kickers, but seasons covered by ETOs do.

There’s another difference between player options and ETOs that rarely comes into play. If a player opts out using a standard player option, he can still sign an extension before hitting free agency. That’s not the case with ETOs. Still, most players make formal decisions on these options not long before becoming free agents, leaving little time to negotiate extensions. Veteran extensions usually aren’t beneficial to players under the current collective bargaining agreement anyway, so there’s little incentive to choose a player option over an ETO just to gain more flexibility in signing an extension.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Repost Share Send via email

Hoops Rumors Originals

March 9th, 2014 at 4:37pm CST by Zachary Links

A look back at the original work generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

Repost Share Send via email

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Bosh

March 6th, 2014 at 9:36pm CST by Charlie Adams

Chris Bosh didn’t command as much star power as LeBron James or Dwyane Wade when the trio grouped together in the summer of 2010, but he’s played a huge part in the Heat’s three consecutive finals appearances and might have surpassed Wade as the second most productive member of the Big Three. In fact, the first installment of Hoops Rumors’ 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings has Bosh ranked as the third biggest name set to test the market this summer behind only LBJ and Carmelo Anthony. Bosh’s contract will afford him the option to remain a member of the Heat if he so chooses, but a report has indicated the big man will likely choose to exercise the early-termination option on his contract and enter free agency to seek a max deal.

After being selected fourth overall in the 2003 NBA draft, Bosh quickly made a name for himself in Toronto. The club saw him as its cornerstone to build around after Vince Carter was shipped off to the Nets in 2004, and he lived up to the expectations, to be sure. He holds the Raptors franchise records for points, rebounds, blocks, and minutes played. He helped lead the Raptors to their first division title and quickly found himself as a fan favorite north of the border. However, after seven seasons in Toronto, Bosh’s desire to win a championship led him to decide to sign in Miami so he could play with LeBron and D-Wade.

A report earlier today indicated that Bosh would like to play until he’s 36 years old, and that desire might factor into his decision to opt of his contract early. Although still a very efficient player, Bosh’s best years might be behind him. He turns 30 years old this month and is likely interested in locking up a long-term deal. If he chooses to stay in a Heat uniform with his current contract, he’ll have next season guaranteed at $20.6MM and a player option for the 2015/16 campaign worth $22.1MM. It’s tough to turn down a guaranteed $42MM, but opting out would give a team the chance to offer Bosh a four- or a five-year contract on which the big man could stand to make even more money over a longer period of time.

Waiting until his pact with the Heat is up means risking serious injury or a production drop-off, which would hurt his ability to secure a lucrative deal down the road. It’d certainly be possible for Bosh to exercise his early-termination option only to land another long-term deal with Miami. However, although the Heat could technically offer Bosh more money in free agency than any other squad since they own his Bird Rights, doing so would greatly limit their flexibility in signing other players in years to come, so they might be hesitant to do so. Bosh took a discount to play with James and Wade in Miami in 2010, and reports have indicated he won’t be interested in giving up guaranteed money this time around.

Bosh has said he’d like to remain in Miami for the remainder of his career, but we know that such statements don’t always hold true. Rumors have circulated suggesting that he’s actually the most likely of the Big Three to leave Miami this summer, due in large part to the temptation of taking on more of a leading role for another squad. The Heat haven’t utilized Bosh in the same way the Raptors did. His usage rate dropped from 28.7% during his last year in Toronto to 23.5% in his first year in Miami, and his value has often been overshadowed by the success of James and Wade. Bosh has made it known that his main priority is playing for a winning team, but it’s tough to imagine that a chance to play in a leading role isn’t one of his top wishes as well.

The Mavericks are one team said to have interest in Bosh, and a move to Dallas would make a lot of sense for the Creative Artists Agency client. Bosh was born and raised in the Lone Star State, and the Mavs will likely have the flexibility to retain Dirk Nowitzki and target another big name since we’ve heard that Nowitzki won’t be asking for an outrageous contract this summer. Bosh mostly played the four earlier in his career, but he’s recently been more of a center, and a frontcourt pairing of Dirk and Bosh would have the potential to be a headache for opposing defenses.

Nothing is written in stone, and Bosh might very well end up deciding to remain a member of the Heat for at least one more season by choosing not to exercise his early-termination option. His value isn’t the same at age 30 as it was at age 26, but he’s shooting an impressive 52.7% from the floor and a solid 36.6% from beyond the arc. With efficiency numbers just a smidgen below his career marks, Bosh will likely be able to garner a sizable level of interest from teams around the league this offseason, and he’ll be able to make his money whatever he decides to do. It’s just a question of whether he feels like staying in Miami or taking his talents elsewhere.

Repost Share Send via email
Load More Posts