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Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.

Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.

Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.

Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.

None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.

So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.

For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.

If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.

The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).

Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.

Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.

We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!