The Raptors‘ decision to part ways with Coach of the Year Dwane Casey and then to trade beloved star DeMar DeRozan generated some angst among the fanbase last summer. But the moves ultimately paid off in dividends for the long-snakebitten organization this spring.
A Raptors postseason run that featured an improbable Game 7 buzzer beater against the Sixers and a comeback from a 2-0 deficit against the Bucks culminated with a Finals win over the Warriors for Toronto’s first NBA championship. Now, with the hangover from that title celebration still wearing off, the club will have to figure out whether it can keep All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard and make another run in 2019/20.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will Kawhi Leonard re-sign?
With Kevin Durant expected to miss the 2019/20 season due to his torn Achilles, Leonard is unquestionably the top free agent on the market. And with just hours remaining until free agency officially begins, we still don’t really have a sense of what his plans are.
Did his championship run with the Raptors make him gain a new appreciation for Toronto or does he still want to play in his hometown of Los Angeles? Would teaming up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the Lakers appeal to him after he led a team to a championship as the unquestioned No. 1 option? Does he want to join forces with another top free agent like Durant or Jimmy Butler? Does he intend to sign a shorter-term deal or opt for long-term security?
All of these questions remain up in the air, which makes it impossible to get a good read on how likely a return to Toronto is. That puts the Raptors in a tough situation, especially if Leonard doesn’t intend to make a quick decision once free agency opens, since their outlook going forward hinges on whether they’ll have the Finals MVP for five years, two years, or one year — or not at all.
Fortunately for the Raptors, they’re not in a position where they’d have to remain in a holding pattern with other top free agents as they wait for Leonard’s decision. They don’t project to have cap room, so Kawhi’s decision may actually not impact their 2019 offseason roster moves in a huge way. Most of their key contributors remain under contract.
It’s possible Danny Green‘s free agency decision will be tied to Kawhi’s to some extent, and the Raptors may not be limited to just the taxpayer mid-level exception if Leonard heads elswhere Otherwise, I wouldn’t expect their short-term plans to change too drastically based on Kawhi’s decision.
2. Will Danny Green re-sign?
Of the eight players who saw the bulk of the minutes in the Raptors’ final two playoff series (Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, Green, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka, and Norman Powell), only Leonard and Green are free agents.
Green has suggested he’d be interested in running it back with the same group – many of whom will be on expiring contracts – and trying to defend their title. But if Leonard takes a few days to make his decision in free agency, Green probably can’t wait around to see what he does. He’ll be one of the more coveted three-and-D wings on the open market and should draw plenty of interest from around the league.
With Green’s Bird rights in hand, the Raptors are in position to be one of the bidders that makes a strong play for him, and I think they’d be interested in re-signing him whether or not Leonard returns. Despite some up-and-down performances in the playoffs, Green was the team’s best three-point shooter during the regular season, and his ability to lock down perimeter players nearly earned him a spot on one of the NBA’s 2018/19 All-Defensive teams.
Green can reasonably expect to get mid-level offers and it may take a stronger bid than that to land him — I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for $12MM+ annually. If the Raptors want to keep him, they’ll likely need to commit to a price in that range for multiple years.
So far, Toronto has kept its books relatively clean beyond 2020 (only Powell and OG Anunoby are under contract past next season for now), but the team shouldn’t be hesitant to offer Green a multiyear deal if it wants him back — at age 32, he should still have at least two or three more quality seasons left in him.
3. What’s the plan if Leonard and Green don’t return?
As noted above, many of the Raptors’ veterans will be on expiring contracts in 2019/20. Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka, and VanVleet are all on track for unrestricted free agency next summer. So it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the club could begin a retooling process if Leonard leaves, flipping some of those useful veterans on expiring deals for younger pieces or future assets.
I don’t expect that to happen though. Raptors management may feel as if it owes it to its players and fans to keep as much of its championship roster together as possible. And even if the team doesn’t feel that obligation, there’s a much more practical reason to keep the roster intact: It was a pretty good team even without Kawhi last season.
While Leonard managed his load and nursed minor injuries in 22 games over the course of the season, the Raptors posted a 17-5 record. Obviously, Toronto’s championship upside would take a hit without Leonard – and Green – but the club could potentially use its mid-level exception (and possibly its bi-annual exception) to add a starter and a rotation player via free agency. Throw in potential improvements from Anunoby and other young players and this is still a strong playoff team in the East. And if it struggles, midseason trades involving those expiring contracts are always a possibility.
If Leonard and Green walk, I’d expect the Raptors to aggressively pursue wing help on the free agent market. Wesley Matthews, James Ennis, Trevor Ariza, Garrett Temple, Reggie Bullock, Wayne Ellington, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Rodney Hood are among the many players who could be decent fits.
4. Is Nando De Colo finally in the Raptors’ plans?
De Colo, a longtime EuroLeague standout, appeared in 21 games for the Raptors in 2013/14 after a brief stint with the Spurs, and hasn’t been back in the NBA since then. However, Toronto has made an annual bookkeeping move involving De Colo, issuing him qualifying offers that he has never accepted to ensure the team retains his NBA restricted free agent rights.
Those QOs may finally pay off this summer, as De Colo has parted ways with CSKA Moscow and will be seeking a return to the NBA. If the 32-year-old guard signs an offer sheet with any of the NBA’s 29 teams besides the Raptors, Toronto will have an opportunity to match it.
While De Colo may not be a fit on a roster that features Lowry and VanVleet at point guard, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the Raptors to just renounce their rights to the former second-round pick and move on.
Trading for De Colo was one of the first moves Ujiri made during his tenure as the Raps’ head of basketball operations, and there’s a reason the team never gave up its rights to De Colo over the last five years. I still have a hard time envisioning De Colo suiting up for the Raptors in 2019/20, but this is a situation worth watching.
De Colo is one of two Raptors restricted free agents. Patrick McCaw is the other. McCaw’s situation could be interesting as well, given how his restricted free agency with the Warriors played out last year — the two sides locked in a stalemate well into the regular season. Of the two, McCaw is probably the more likely one to suit up for Toronto next season, but I don’t have a good feel yet for how attached the team is to either player. If Leonard returns, it’s possible both will be renounced for tax-related reasons.
5. Will the Raptors extend Pascal Siakam?
Technically, Siakam is part of that group of Raptors who are entering the final year of their respective contracts and haven’t yet been locked up through next season. But there’s little doubt that the NBA’s Most Improved Player is part of the club’s long-term plans, even if it takes a maximum-salary deal – or something close to it – to keep him in town.
Siakam will become eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and if he’s willing to accept something of a team-friendly rate, I’d expect the Raptors to work hard to get something done. If not, it makes more sense for the front office to be patient and re-sign Siakam once he hits restricted free agency in 2020.
With so many contracts set to come off the books next year, the Raptors project to have a massive amount of cap room, which could give the team a ton of options in free agency or on the trade market. A lucrative new extension for Siakam would cut into the team’s flexibility by upwards of $20MM. If Toronto lets the young forward become a restricted free agent, the club could keep his very modest $7MM cap hold on the books for the first part of 2020’s free agent period, then go over the cap to re-sign him once it has used up the rest of its cap room.
It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Siakam isn’t a Raptor for the next several years, so if he doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, it can probably be chalked up to cap-related technicalities rather than a lack of interest in a long-term deal.
Check out the Toronto Raptors’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I wouldn’t completely write off De Colo in a Raptors uniform. Even with Lowry and FVV Masai could see fit to add De Colo as a 3rd pg/wing, especially at 6’5″ and the Raptors proficiency in using two guard line ups. While not as defensively savvy or versatile as Delon Wright, it’s easy to envision De Colo in a similar role and if the Raptors do retain him it’s hard to envision anything more than a 2-year deal (similar to Teodosic) which would make him a possible trade chip if things go south should Kawhi not re-sign. There’s also the possibility that De Colo doesn’t get any NBA offers at all and stays overseas, but with Darren Collison taking himself off the market by retiring, that should make teams look at De Colo as a cheaper option.
I would keep it shortterm with DannyG, and they could even do better at this point. I think he is declining.
Kawhi of course must be waited upon. Would you care for more coffee sir.
Nobody seems to be mad at these major FAs making people wait for their decisions like they were with Lebron. It’s a good thing James is spiritually durable.
Toronto should not expect to be the same winners if Kawhi leaves. In other words, rebuild mode.