Community Shootaround: 2020/21 NBA Predictions
It may feel as if the 2019/20 NBA season just ended, but we’re just suddenly hours away from the ’20/21 regular season tipping off.
With the coronavirus pandemic ongoing, this season won’t quite look like a typical NBA campaign. Teams are only scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, and that’s assuming that they can get through the season without cancellations.
On Monday, commissioner Adam Silver told reporters – including Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press – that he expects some “bumps in the road” for the NBA as the 2020/21 season progresses, acknowledging that there will likely be some positive COVID-19 tests among players and other on-court personnel. However, Silver also said the league is “prepared for all contingencies” and is confident that it will be able to get through the full season.
Time will tell if Silver is right. But for now, let’s assume – or at least hope – that he is. We want to get your predictions on which teams and players will rule the 2020/21 NBA season — assuming the league can get through it.
Playoffs and NBA Finals
Betting site BetOnline.ag currently lists the following 12 teams as the best bets to claim the top six spots in each conference:
Eastern Conference:
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Brooklyn Nets
- Boston Celtics
- Miami Heat
- Toronto Raptors
- Philadelphia 76ers
Western Conference:
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Denver Nuggets
- Dallas Mavericks
- Utah Jazz
- Portland Trail Blazers
Only the top six finishers in each conference are assured of playoff berths this season, as the Nos. 7-10 teams will participate in a play-in tournament at the end of the year for the final two spots. The seventh and eighth seeds will only have to win once in two games to claim their spots, while the ninth and 10th seeds would require two wins.
Based on BetOnline’s odds, the Pacers, Hawks, Wizards, and Magic are the best bets for the 7-10 spots in the East, with the Bulls, Hornets, and Cavaliers among the teams lurking as threats.
In the West, the Suns, Warriors, Rockets, and Pelicans are considered the best bets for that 7-10 range, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Kings, and Timberwolves looking to push them out.
Meanwhile, the Bucks and the Nets are the frontrunners to make the NBA Finals in the East, per BetOnline, while the Lakers and Clippers are the overwhelming betting favorites to represent the West.
What do you think? Do those projected standings look about right to you, or do you think certain teams are noticeably overvalued or undervalued? Do you expect some combination of the Bucks, Nets, Lakers, and Clippers to play in the Finals, or will another team (or two) crash the party?
NBA End-of-Season Awards
Some end-of-season awards are a little easier to forecast than others. We have a general idea of which players should be in the mix for the Most Valuable Player award or Defensive Player of the Year honors. But there could be dozens of candidates for Most Improved Player, while an award like Sixth Man of the Year often hinges on whether injuries force certain top bench players to become starters.
Still, BetOnline has provided betting favorites for all of major awards. Here are bettors’ top five picks for each one:
Most Valuable Player:
- Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
- Kevin Durant (Nets)
- Stephen Curry (Warriors)
- Anthony Davis (Lakers) / LeBron James (Lakers) (tie)
Defensive Player of the Year:
- Anthony Davis (Lakers)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
- Bam Adebayo (Heat)
- Joel Embiid (Sixers)
Rookie of the Year:
- LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
- Obi Toppin (Knicks)
- James Wiseman (Warriors)
- Killian Hayes (Pistons)
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
Sixth Man of the Year:
- Lou Williams (Clippers)
- Jordan Clarkson (Jazz)
- Danilo Gallinari (Hawks)
- Goran Dragic (Heat)
- Serge Ibaka (Clippers)
Most Improved Player:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
- Deandre Ayton (Suns)
- Christian Wood (Rockets) / Michael Porter (Nuggets) (tie)
- Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
- Coby White (Bulls)
Coach of the Year:
- Steve Nash (Nets)
- Tyronn Lue (Clippers)
- Monty Williams (Suns)
- Brad Stevens (Celtics) / Erik Spoelstra (Heat) / Frank Vogel (Lakers) / Rick Carlisle (Mavericks) (tie)
- Doc Rivers (Sixers)
While the favorites for each of those awards make sense, there are some guys I like who don’t make the cut. I think Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton is an intriguing Rookie of the Year candidate, and I’d be tempted to make Davis Bertans my choice for Sixth Man as long as the Wizards intend to continue bringing him off the bench.
What do you think? Are you picking mostly from the above candidates for your award selections, or are you going off the board with some of your choices?
With the regular season to tip off, we want to hear your predictions for the coming year.
Head to the comment section below to share your picks for the 2020/21 regular season standings, the playoff results, the award winners, and any other subjects you want to weigh in on (James Harden‘s trade destination? Or maybe the first head coach to be fired?).
Happy opening night!
Injury Updates: Hayward, Kemba, Thompson, Ennis, Morris
Hornets forward Gordon Hayward, who broke the bone at the base of his right pinky finger last week, will be available for Charlotte’s regular season opener in Cleveland on Wednesday, he said today (Twitter link via team).
When Hayward’s injury was announced last Wednesday, a report indicated that the Hornets didn’t believe he’d require surgery and that he’d likely be able to return to action when he felt he could comfortably manage the pain and perform effectively. Apparently, it didn’t take long for the veteran forward to feel comfortable playing through the injury.
Here are a few more health updates from around the NBA:
- Celtics point guard Kemba Walker is still “a long way away,” head coach Brad Stevens said today (Twitter link via Tim Bontemps of ESPN). Walker, who is rehabbing a left knee injury, is still limited to 1-on-1 work with a coach, and the team won’t update his status until the first week of January. Stevens is hopeful that big man Tristan Thompson (hamstring) will be able to play in Boston’s opener on Wednesday, Bontemps adds (via Twitter).
- Magic swingman James Ennis will miss the first game of the season due to hamstring and calf injuries and his status beyond that game is questionable, head coach Steve Clifford said today (Twitter link via Roy Parry of The Orlando Sentinel).
- The Clippers have listed Marcus Morris as out for their regular season opener on Tuesday night due to right knee soreness (link via ESPN). Morris didn’t play in any of the club’s three preseason games.
New York Notes: Ntilikina, Rivers, Thibs, Durant, Nets
Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina was one of the 13 players who didn’t sign a rookie scale extension by Monday’s deadline despite being eligible for a new deal, and will now be on track for 2021 free agency.
While some of those 13 players engaged in contract negotiations with their respective teams, that wasn’t the case for Ntilikina, according to Ian Begley of SNY.tv, who says there were no extension talks between the Knicks and the former lottery pick.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Knicks won’t attempt to re-sign Ntilikina when he becomes a free agent in 2021 or that they’ll try to trade him before then. But it appears as if the team is content to take a wait-and-see approach with the fourth-year guard, as Begley observes.
Here’s more on the NBA’s two New York teams:
- New Knicks combo guard Austin Rivers, who has missed all four preseason games due to a right groin injury had yet to return to practice as of Monday and seems very likely to miss the start of the regular season, per Zach Braziller of The New York Post.
- Ian O’Connor of ESPN takes an in-depth look at Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau, examining Thibs’ popularity among players, his coaching style, and his outlook in New York.
- Nets forward Kevin Durant will face his old team in Tuesday night’s opener, but doesn’t anticipate added emotions or higher stakes in the game against the Warriors, writes Malika Andrews of ESPN. “I feel like each game is important to me,” Durant said. “And it’s no more important to me because I am playing against my old teammates. I just feel like the game of basketball is going to have me on that level anyway and it’s going to be good to see some of my old teammates.”
- The preseason gave us a preview of what the Nets‘ primary bench unit should look like, according to Mollie Walker of The New York Post, who says the group, led by Caris LeVert, should also feature Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince, Landry Shamet, and Jeff Green.
NBA Teams With Most, Least Roster Continuity
The NBA’s offseason felt awfully busy, with free agency opening just two days after the draft and training camps starting about 10 days later. As hectic as those couple weeks were though, they actually didn’t feature a ton of player movement relative to a typical offseason.
A year ago, for instance, when we looked at the teams with the most and least roster continuity from year to year, we found that only one team was bringing back 13 players (counting two-ways) from its previous squad, while a total of four had 11 or more returning players.
This time around, seven clubs are bringing back 13 or more players from their end-of-season 2019/20 rosters, and a total of 18 teams will have 11 or more returning players. The Bulls and Pacers lead the way, having carried over 14 players apiece.
While the condensed offseason made for an exciting November, the quick turnaround also likely played a major part in teams’ decisions to stand relatively pat. Without a Summer League or the opportunity to conduct offseason mini-camps, teams haven’t had a lot of time to integrate new players, and have generally opted for as much continuity as possible.
Of course, while that may have been the general rule for the 2020 offseason, it certainly doesn’t apply to every team. A year ago, seven teams – including the eventual-champion Lakers – brought back just six players from their 2018/19 rosters. This time around, two clubs had that much turnover.
Of those two clubs, one – the Pistons – exhibited an impressive disregard for roster continuity, retaining just four players (Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Sekou Doumbouya, and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk) from last season’s roster. That’s the lowest number of returning players a team has had to start a season since the 2017 Celtics.
Here are the number of returning players for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, from most to fewest:
- Chicago Bulls: 14
Indiana Pacers: 14 - Boston Celtics: 13
Brooklyn Nets: 13
Memphis Grizzlies: 13
Miami Heat: 13
San Antonio Spurs: 13 - Golden State Warriors: 12
Orlando Magic: 12 - Cleveland Cavaliers: 11
Los Angeles Clippers: 11
Los Angeles Lakers: 11
Minnesota Timberwolves: 11
New York Knicks: 11
Sacramento Kings: 11
Toronto Raptors: 11
Utah Jazz: 11
Washington Wizards: 11 - Charlotte Hornets: 10
Dallas Mavericks: 10
Denver Nuggets: 10 - Portland Trail Blazers: 9
- Atlanta Hawks: 8
Houston Rockets: 8
New Orleans Pelicans: 8
Phoenix Suns: 8 - Milwaukee Bucks: 7
Philadelphia 76ers: 7 - Oklahoma City Thunder: 6
- Detroit Pistons: 4
Warriors Re-Sign Juan Toscano-Anderson To Two-Way Deal
10:12am: Toscano-Anderson’s two-way contract is now official, the Warriors announced in a press release.
9:04am: After releasing him from their standard roster on Saturday, the Warriors will bring back wing Juan Toscano-Anderson on a two-way contract, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Toscano-Anderson cleared waivers on Monday.
A former Marquette standout, Toscano-Anderson went undrafted in 2015 and spent the first few years of his professional career playing in Mexico and Venezuela. The 27-year-old joined the Warriors’ G League affiliate in Santa Cruz for the 2019/20 season and was eventually promoted to Golden State’s NBA roster. He averaged 5.3 PPG and 4.0 RPG on .460/.348/.600 shooting in 13 games (20.9 MPG) down the stretch.
Toscano-Anderson’s contract with the Warriors included a non-guaranteed salary for 2020/21, so the team hung onto him through training camp and the preseason. Mychal Mulder beat him out for the 15th roster spot, but because Toscano-Anderson didn’t have a partial guarantee exceeding $50K, he remained eligible to sign a two-way deal with the club once he cleared waivers.
The Warriors, whose other two-way player is Nico Mannion, had been one of five teams with an empty two-way contract slot. As our tracker shows, the Pistons, Suns, Trail Blazers, and Kings still have open spots.
Nets Re-Sign Chiozza To Two-Way Contract, Waive Martin
The Nets have made a change to one of their two-way contract slots, announcing today in a press release that they’ve waived Jeremiah Martin and re-signed Chris Chiozza to a two-way deal to replace him.
Chiozza, 25, signed a two-way contract with Brooklyn in January and emerged as a reliable rotation player for the team, averaging 6.4 PPG and 3.1 APG on .425/.357/1.000 shooting in 18 games (15.4 MPG).
The Nets issued Chiozza a qualifying offer in November, making him a restricted free agent. He ended up signing a one-year, minimum-salary contract with Brooklyn, but it was non-guaranteed, which made him expendable on Saturday when the club made its roster cuts.
Although he didn’t make the 15-man squad, Chiozza cleared waivers and is now back on another two-way contract, which will allow him to be active in up to 50 of the Nets’ 72 regular season games this season. He’ll earn $449,155 on the deal, alongside fellow two-way player Reggie Perry.
Martin, meanwhile, will become a free agent on Thursday if he goes unclaimed on waivers. The former University of Memphis point guard, who signed a two-year, two-way contract with the Nets in January appeared in nine games as a rookie in 2019/20, averaging 7.1 PPG and 2.0 APG in 11.0 MPG. He also averaged 17.7 PPG and 4.5 APG in 37 G League games (30.4 MPG) for Long Island and Sioux Falls.
Suns Pick Up 2021/22 Options On Ayton, Bridges, Johnson
The Suns have exercised their fourth-year team options on the rookie scale contracts of Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges, along with the third-year option on Cameron Johnson‘s rookie deal, per RealGM’s log of official NBA transactions.
All three options apply to the 2021/22 season, guaranteeing each player’s salary for that year. Ayton’s option is worth $12.63MM, Bridges’ is for $5.56MM, and Johnson’s has a value of $4.44MM.
None of the decisions came as a surprise, as all three players have established themselves as promising young contributors in Phoenix.
Ayton, the former No. 1 overall pick, averaged 18.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG, and 1.5 BPG in 38 games (32.5 MPG) in 2019/20 after serving a 25-game suspension to start the season for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension in 2021.
Bridges, who will also be extension-eligible next year, recorded 9.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.4 SPG with a solid .510/.361/.844 shooting line in 73 games (28.0 MPG) last season. He moved into Phoenix’s starting lineup later in the season, including for the team’s 8-0 run during the summer restart.
Johnson, the 11th pick in the 2019 draft, averaged 8.8 PPG and knocked down 39.0% of his three-point tries in 57 games (22.0 MPG) as a rookie. The Suns will have to decide next year whether to exercise his $5.89MM fourth-year option for 2022/23.
Tension Between James Harden, Rockets Teammates?
The Rockets appear set to open the regular season with James Harden on their roster, and while the star guard has reportedly vowed to be professional as he waits for the team to satisfy his trade request, the environment around the team has been tense at times in recent days, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Harden had multiple verbal confrontations with teammates during practices on Sunday and Monday, reports Charania. Sources tell The Athletic that one of those confrontations saw Harden throw a basketball at Jae’Sean Tate after the two had a “heated exchange.”
Charania acknowledges that tense practice interactions between teammates aren’t necessarily uncommon in competitive environments. However, he says some people around the franchise view the confrontations as signaling an “uncharacteristic level of frustration” for Harden, who is typically more calm and laid back.
While Charania compares the situation to Jimmy Butler‘s final weeks in Minnesota, he notes that there are a number of differences between the two situations — Butler was in a contract year, which gave him added leverage, and has a more fiery, volatile personality than Harden. The Rockets are hoping to avoid that sort of volatility as they wait out the trade market and focus on finding a deal that meets their asking price, says Charania.
For what it’s worth, Charania writes that sources have described Harden as “engaged and encouraging” with teammates during games so far this month.
The Rockets will open their regular season by hosting the Thunder on Wednesday night.
2020 NBA Rookie Scale Extension Recap
The NBA’s annual deadline for rookie scale contract extensions passed on Monday, with a flurry of deals completed just before time ran out. In total, 10 players eligible for rookie scale extensions signed new contracts this year.
We’ve seen an uptick in rookie scale extensions over the last couple years, but 2020 still represents an impressive high water-mark after 2019 featured nine such extensions. The last time as many as 10 rookie scale extensions were completed in a single league year was back in 2006, when players like LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh were signing their second NBA contracts.
Here’s a breakdown of the 10 rookie scale extensions signed before this year’s deadline, sorted by total value. In cases where we haven’t yet seen the official contract terms for the extension, we’re basing our figures on the latest reports. These deals will go into effect beginning in 2021/22:
- Donovan Mitchell (Jazz): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Mitchell earns All-NBA honors in 2021. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker.
Jayson Tatum (Celtics): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Tatum earns All-NBA honors in 2021. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker.- Bam Adebayo (Heat): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Adebayo earns MVP honors in 2021 ($185,820,675 for All-NBA First Team; $179,300,645 for Defensive Player of the Year).
- De’Aaron Fox (Kings): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Fox earns First Team All-NBA honors in 2021 ($182,560,660 for Second Team; $169,522,180 for Third Team).
- OG Anunoby (Raptors): Four years, $72,000,000 (story). Includes fourth-year player option.
- Derrick White (Spurs): Four years, $70,000,000 (story). Includes $5MM in incentives.
- Jonathan Isaac (Magic): Four years, $69,600,000 (story). Includes $10.4MM in incentives and Exhibit 3 injury protection.
- Luke Kennard (Clippers): Four years, $56,000,000 (story). Includes $8MM in incentives and a fourth-year team option.
- Markelle Fultz (Magic): Three years, $50,000,000 (story). Includes $3MM in incentives and partial guarantee in third year.
- Kyle Kuzma (Lakers): Three years, $39,000,000 (story). Includes third-year player option.
The first four extensions on this list were completed relatively early in the offseason and didn’t come as a surprise. Mitchell, Tatum, Adebayo, and Fox are considered crucial franchise building blocks for their respective teams, and there was no point in getting cute by waiting until the 2021 offseason to lock them up, since all four teams were prepared to offer the max.
The other six deals were arguably more interesting, since non-maximum-salary rookie scale extensions are generally trickier to negotiate.
The Spurs and Raptors, for instance, had to weigh how much they wanted to prioritize maximizing their cap room in 2021. Both teams cut into their projected room slightly by finalizing extensions with their respective fourth-year players, but that trade-off will be worth it if White and Anunoby have breakout seasons in 2020/21. Several other teams around the NBA will have significant cap room as well, and would’ve been in position to give those players more lucrative offer sheets.
The Lakers and Clippers each projected to be over the cap in 2021, so they were in position to negotiate new deals for their fourth-year players without really worrying about reducing their flexibility for next offseason.
While I don’t particularly love either Kennard’s or Kuzma’s new contract from a team perspective, I understand why each team felt compelled to act now. Kennard is an elite shooter who could’ve received offers in the range of Joe Harris (four years, $72MM) or Davis Bertans (five years, $80MM) if he stays healthy and has a nice year in Los Angeles. As for Kuzma, he’s only receiving a little more than the mid-level and it’s not a long commitment — that’s a relatively safe investment, and a deal he would’ve topped with a strong bounce-back 2020/21 season.
The Magic, meanwhile, completed perhaps the two most curious deals of the extension period, committing $80MM to Isaac, who will be out for the season with a torn ACL, and $50MM to Fultz, who has had one healthy season in the NBA and is a career 26.7% three-point shooter.
While Orlando may end up regretting one or both deals, I definitely don’t hate them. Isaac looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before he got hurt last season, and would’ve been in line for a contract much closer to the max if he had stayed healthy. If the Magic feel good about his ability to make a full recovery, that deal will pay off in its later years.
As for Fultz, Orlando protected itself to some extent with a final-year team option, and frankly didn’t even give the former No. 1 pick that significant a raise — he’ll earn $12.3MM in the final year of his rookie contract in 2020/21. The contract isn’t long enough or expensive enough to ever become a real albatross if Fultz regresses or deals with more health issues. If he develops like the Magic believe he can – they reportedly feel as if he’s capable of become an “upper-echelon point guard” – it’ll be a bargain, though that’s a big if.
While 10 players signed rookie scale extensions, that leaves 13 players who were eligible for a new deal and didn’t get one (a 14th, T.J. Leaf, was waived by the Thunder on Saturday). Here’s the list of those players, who are now eligible to become restricted free agents during the 2021 offseason, assuming they finish their current contracts:
- Jarrett Allen (Nets)
- Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
- Tony Bradley (Sixers)
- John Collins (Hawks)
- Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
- Terrance Ferguson (Sixers)
- Josh Hart (Pelicans)
- Justin Jackson (Thunder)
- Lauri Markkanen (Bulls)
- Malik Monk (Hornets)
- Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
- Dennis Smith Jr. (Knicks)
- D.J. Wilson (Bucks)
The most interesting names here are Allen, Ball, Collins (both of them), and Markkanen.
The lack of a new deal made some sense for Markkanen and the Collinses — the Bulls forward had a down year in 2019/20, while the Hawks‘ Collins missed 25 games due to a suspension and the Trail Blazers‘ Collins missed most of the season due to an ankle injury. All three players likely feel they can increase their value by staying on the court and playing to their full potential this season.
Ball also has an injury history, having missed some time in each of his three NBA seasons, so the Pelicans may have wanted another year to assess him — Ball’s agent Rich Paul also generally prefers to take his clients to free agency.
As for Allen, the Nets‘ financial situation may have played a part in the club’s decision to hold off on an extension. The team already has over $140MM in salaries on its books for 2021/22. Not extending Allen will also make it simpler to include him in a trade this season if the right deal arises. The poison pill provision would’ve applied if he’d inked a new contract, meaning he would’ve had significantly different outgoing and incoming cap figures, making salary-matching more challenging.
All of these players will be well positioned to land a big payday if they have big years in 2020/21, since there the 2021 free agent market lost plenty of talent due to all this year’s extensions and several teams still project to have big chunks of cap space.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Suns Claim Frank Kaminsky Off Waivers
The Suns have reunited with veteran forward/center Frank Kaminsky, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, who reports (via Twitter) that Phoenix claimed Kaminsky off waivers.
Kaminsky, 27, averaged 9.7 PPG and 4.5 RPG on .450/.331/.678 shooting in 39 games (19.9 MPG) for Phoenix in 2019/20. A patella stress fracture shortened his season, however, and he played a very limited role during the Suns’ 8-0 run in the bubble at Walt Disney World. The team declined his $5MM option for 2020/21 last month.
After being let go by the Suns, Kaminsky signed a non-guaranteed minimum-salary contract with the Kings, but was beaten out by Glenn Robinson III for the 15th spot on Sacramento’s roster and was cut on Saturday.
As a result of tonight’s waiver claim, Kaminsky is back in Phoenix on a much more team-friendly deal than the $5MM option the Suns turned down in November. Because the club had an open roster spot, no corresponding roster move was required to claim Kaminsky.