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Column: Do Bucks Stop Here? Doesn’t Seem Like It

August 18th, 2015 at 9:31am CST by Hoops Rumors
Sam Amico, the founder and editor of AmicoHoops.net and a broadcast journalist for Fox Sports Ohio, will write a weekly feature for Hoops Rumors with news, rumors and insight from around the NBA. If you missed last week’s edition, click here.
When the Milwaukee Bucks take the floor this season, they’ll be a different team. Yes, Jason Kidd returns as coach.
Yes, the roster largely remains the same.
And yes, the Bucks will still be a mostly young group that is trying to find its way.
But the vibe will be different.
Kidd is entering his second season with the team, his third as a coach. The main players have gotten a taste of the playoffs — and anyone in any NBA capacity will tell you that alone counts for a lot. And the Bucks are no longer just athletic. Experience has made them smarter.
Last season, the Bucks were the surprise of the league. They jumped from 15 wins in 2013/14 to finish a respectable 41-41. They moved the ball on offense, bent their knees and shuffled their feet on defense, and much to the highlight shows’ delight, occasionally glided through the air with the greatest of ease.
Now, they get Jabari Parker back.
The second-year forward and No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 draft averaged 12.3 points on 49% shooting in just 25 games — before tearing his ACL and being stuck on the sidelines for the rest of the season.
Now, they’ve added Greg Monroe — and the free-agent signee from Detroit is likely to start and bring sturdiness to the center position right away.
The Bucks will also have starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams from the beginning. That’s something they couldn’t say last season — as Carter-Williams wasn’t part of the team until a deadline-day trade at the end of February.
Along with Carter-Williams, Monroe and Parker, the Bucks boast the forever-energetic Giannis Antetokounmpo and forever-underrated Khris Middleton on the wings.
It’s true that this is a lineup devoid of true-blue superstars, or the type of players that will make the media circus long to set up camp in Milwaukee.
But suddenly, this is a team worthy of everyone’s attention.
“They’re not a secret anymore,” Kidd said of his team.
Of course, he said that following a disaster of a 120-66 defeat to the Chicago Bulls — a game that eliminated the Bucks from the first round of the playoffs and sent them into the offseason with a whimper.
But that, of course, followed the Bucks winning two straight and staying alive after a 3-0 series hole.
Basically, the Bucks behaved like the young, talented and fairly inconsistent team they were.
Still, as mentioned previously, merely tasting the postseason tends to make guys feel better, and more confident, when training camp gets going.
“We got better,” Kidd said. “The whole experience of being in the playoffs, you can’t take that away from those guys, no matter if you lose by 40 or you lose by one.”
Off the bench come the likes of big men John Henson, Johnny O’Bryant and Miles Plumlee, along with veteran guards O.J. Mayo and Greivis Vasquez (obtained in a June trade with the Raptors), as well as free agent signee Chris Copeland at forward.
The Bucks are also excited about the potential of first-round pick Rashad Vaughn — a fairly athletic shooting guard and former McDonald’s All-American who spent one season at UNLV.
Do the Bucks having the makings of a champion? Not yet. Not in this league, where veteran teams with playoff savvy are always the ones playing at the end.
But these Bucks are climbing, they’re exciting, and they will enter the season with a better idea of how to get to where they need to go.
They will be different, for sure. But that’s OK. It will most likely be in a good way.
More Bucks stuff
1. ESPN began its summer forecast and projected the Bucks to win 44 games and finish seventh in the Eastern Conference. That’s three more victories than last season, but one less spot – as the Bucks were the East’s No. 6 seed this past spring.
2. With new owners promising a new arena, as long as public funding is finalized, it appears the Bucks are in Milwaukee for the long haul. That said, here’s an interesting story from Michael Powell in The New York Times that uses Milwaukee as an example of “all that is wrong with our arena-shakedown age.”
3. Finally, the Bucks signed hometown guy Marcus Landry, a 29-year old forward. Landry has spent most of his career overseas or in the D-League. He played his high school ball in Milwaukee and his college ball at the University of Wisconsin. He is also the brother of NBA forward Carl Landry, a member of the Sixers who has spent eight years in the league. It would seem Marcus will have a difficult time sticking on a roster that’s deep and basically set. But if there’s one thing this team could use, it’s an older guy.
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Trade Candidate: Markieff Morris

August 17th, 2015 at 12:38pm CST by Chuck Myron
NBA: Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Markieff and Marcus Morris “desperately” wanted to play together, as Lon Babby, then president of basketball operations for the Suns and now an adviser to the team, said last year shortly after the twins signed their extensions. So, perhaps the Suns should have seen Markieff’s trade demand coming when they dealt Marcus to the Pistons in July. It’s just as reasonable to suggest that the brothers should have known they’d have to play apart from each other sooner or later. Still, neither the Suns nor Markieff can be pleased with where they find themselves now, with Markieff clearly upset and Phoenix left to negotiate from a position of weakness.

Other teams know that the Suns risk poisoning their locker room if they bring their disgruntled power forward to camp, and Phoenix surely doesn’t want to be stuck paying $8MM this season to a player it tells to stay at home. Waiving Markieff would be hardly palatable, since the Suns still owe him the entirety of his four-year, $32MM extension. The stretch provision could spread those payments over a period as long as nine years, but the Suns would almost certainly rather bring back value, even pennies on the dollar, in exchange for making the contract another team’s obligation.

The trick for the other 29 teams lies in knowing just how far to push. The market for Josh Smith‘s contract was so barren last year that the Pistons reportedly would have had to attach draft assets to him if they were to have traded him, prompting Detroit to release him instead. That’s not the case with Markieff, whose deal is reasonable at $8MM a year. He’s arguably underpaid, a case that his brother tried to make last week, so it’s much more likely that an interested team will be willing to give up assets for Markieff rather than demand that the Suns give them up in a swap. Just what those assets might be is the sticking point.

The Suns would no doubt love to end up with a starting power forward in return for the one they’d be giving up. They made a shrewd addition when they signed Mirza Teletovic to a one-year, $5.5MM deal a few days after trading Marcus. It’s reasonable to suspect that the Suns had an inkling that Markieff might push his way out of town when they made the signing, since Teletovic rebounds at roughly the same frequency per minute as Markieff does, and both are putative floor-stretchers. Teletovic has proven a better three-point shooter over his three-year NBA career than Markieff has in his first four years in the league, canning 36.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc, though he made just 32.1% of them last season. Still, Teletovic is the strongest candidate to start at power forward on the Suns roster other than Markieff, and the Bosnian who turns 30 next month has yet to average more than 22.3 minutes per game in an NBA season. Trade acquisition Jon Leuer, who’s never seen more than the 13.1 MPG he posted each of the last two seasons with the Grizzlies, would seemingly be next in line.

It would be exceedingly difficult for the Suns to find that sort of value for Markieff under the duress they face now, however. In hindsight, GM Ryan McDonough would have dealt him soon after he realized the team’s strong pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge had come up just short, or at least before Markieff’s discontent became public knowledge. That the Suns stood pat suggests that the market for him wasn’t as strong as McDonough would have liked, and indeed, at least one report indicated that the Suns tried to find a new home for Markieff. Reasons ranging from Markieff’s legal troubles, to the 15 technical fouls that tied him for the league lead in that category last season, to his criticism of Suns fans may have played a factor in a market that failed to yield equal on-court value in July, but offers are surely worse now than they were then.

The Suns could try to swing a deal that creates a trade exception equivalent to Markieff’s $8MM salary, one in which Phoenix wouldn’t take any salary in return. That would give the Suns a valuable weapon they could use at some point in the next 12 months, but as we saw last month with the Cavs and the Brendan Haywood contract, a de facto trade exception, the mere ability to add a quality player without having to give up salary in return doesn’t mean an attractive trade opportunity will come up. Indeed, pursuing this angle would force the Suns to find two trades instead of just one, and given the team’s playoff aspirations, it’s doubtful that McDonough wants to relinquish his starting power forward without some sort of immediate help coming back.

Phoenix may have to end up dealing from a position of strength on the wing to fix a position of weakness at power forward. The Suns have a pair of recent late first-round picks in Archie Goodwin and T.J. Warren. Each carries promise and plays on a cheap rookie scale contract. A deal of either of them plus Morris would give the Suns a much better chance of landing a starting-caliber power forward. McDonough could look to Boston, where his old boss, Danny Ainge, has no shortage of quality fours, and Houston, where GM Daryl Morey is another Celtics alum and where the power forward position is also relatively well-stocked. The addition of Markieff wouldn’t resolve the logjam at the position in either Boston or Houston, unless those teams gave up multiple power forwards in return, but, his off-court trouble and petulance aside, Markieff may well offer better at the position than either of those teams have now.

The Suns are in a tough spot, to be sure. The league knows they essentially have to make a deal. But, McDonough and company can still try to make the best of a regrettable situation rather than panicking or acting on emotion. A cool-headed approach will let the Suns cut their losses and move forward, even if it requires a step back first.

Do you have a trade idea involving Markieff Morris? Leave a comment to share your scenario.

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Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 8/9/15-8/15/15

August 15th, 2015 at 5:27pm CST by Eddie Scarito

In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:

“Where do you see Markieff Morris ending up?” — Stu

This is an extremely difficult situation that the Suns have been placed in, and there is no easy answer to this quandary. If Morris had demanded to be dealt immediately after his twin brother was traded, then Phoenix would have had a much better chance of flipping Markieff for ample value, as teams were still in the midst of filling out their rosters, and more franchises would have had available cap space to play with. As it stands now, other teams around the league are well aware of that the Suns need to move the forward, and that limits Ryan McDonough‘s bargaining power significantly.

At this point I don’t think Morris is on the Suns’ opening night roster, unless some serious fence-mending is done by both parties. Thankfully for Phoenix, Mirza Teletovic is on hand to step into the rotation in Morris’ place, which is a nice insurance policy in case the team is unable to deal or placate the young forward. As for potential landing spots, the most likely candidates include the Celtics, Raptors, and possibly the Lakers. Speculation indicated that the Suns had expressed interest in the Pelicans’ Ryan Anderson, but it’s not known if New Orleans would be amenable to a swap, especially given Morris’ reputation as a locker room disruption and his legal issues. I do expect Morris to eventually be dealt, but it will likely be for below market value. Even so, it could become a case of addition by subtraction for the Suns.

“I’m not sold on D’Angelo Russell becoming a star player for the Lakers. Do you think Los Angeles will regret passing on Jahlil Okafor or Emmanuel Mudiay?“ — Deon

Actually, I do think Russell will turn into something special in the league, though I don’t necessarily see him becoming a superstar playmaker like Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul. Having said that, I think if Los Angeles regrets passing on anyone it would be Okafor, since there are far more elite guards entering the NBA than there are big men with star potential. Okafor’s game isn’t without holes, and he and Julius Randle on the same court defensively would have been ugly for the team, but he certainly has the talent to become a franchise centerpiece. I’m also a fan of Mudiay, but he’s a wildcard thanks to his limited track record and decision to play in China last season. I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on him at No. 2 if I were making decisions for the Lakers, especially with Russell and Okafor available at that slot.

With the NBA becoming more and more reliant on guard play, selecting a talented playmaker like Russell was a wise move. Plus, with the propensity for big men to get injured nowadays, going with a backcourt player is also a safer route. While I do expect Russell to have a challenging rookie season, he was a solid pick by the team, and the Lakers’ fanbase should come to love him in no time at all.

“What happens with the Cavs and Tristan Thompson? If he re-signs for a max salary deal, is he worth that amount?” — Keith

I do believe the two sides will reach an agreement on a deal prior to training camp beginning. The team wants him back, and perhaps more importantly, so does LeBron James.  The complication involved is the luxury tax hit that will be attached to Thompson’s deal, a penalty that could end up being in the $35MM range. Spending approximately $50MM for a backup forward, even one as effective as Thompson, is probably a tough pill for owner Dan Gilbert to swallow. But with the Cavs looking to hang a championship banner, Gilbert almost has no other choice but to pony up. The only real alternative here is for Thompson to sign his qualifying offer, worth nearly $6.778MM, and then hit the market next offseason as an unrestricted free agent. For many players, the opportunity to play for a contender and then enter free agency just as the salary cap is primed to explode would be a dream come true. But Thompson reportedly wants the security of a long-term pact prior to the season tipping off, and has indicated he won’t re-sign with the Cavs if he is forced to go the qualifying offer route.

As for Thompson’s worth, he is indeed a valuable part of Cleveland’s rotation, as well as a solid insurance policy in the event Kevin Love is injured. But is he worth a starting salary of $16,407,500, which is the maximum amount for a player of his experience? I’m sure his agent, Rich Paul, would argue that Thompson is. Me, I’d have to say no. Thompson is a big part of the team, but that is also a huge chunk of cap space to dedicate to a player who averaged 8.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game. Even with the expected jump in player salaries beginning next season thanks to the bulging cap, the economics of a max salary deal for Thompson are a bit hard to fathom. I think the Cavs will argue that point to Paul and Thompson, and in the end they will likely compromise somewhere in the $12MM-$14MM range annually.

“With the new NBA schedule reducing the number of back to back games, does this set up the Spurs to be the favorites to win the NBA title this season?” — Jeffrey

It certainly won’t hurt their chances, but it should also help a number of contending teams just as much, if not more. San Antonio rests its players regularly anyway, much to the chagrin of the league and its broadcast partners, so it’s not as big a game-changer for Popovich’s crew as one might think. The reduction in back to backs should actually help teams like the Cavaliers, Grizzlies, Clippers, and Heat more than the Spurs. Those squads all rely quite heavily on their star players, and aren’t necessarily very deep teams rotation-wise, though Miami has made strides in that area this offseason. Giving players like LeBron or Dwyane Wade more recovery time between contests will not only keep them fresher for the playoffs, it should help improve their overall effectiveness on a night to night basis. I still think the better answer for the league would be to reduce the overall amount of regular season games. Eighty-two is far too many, and I think the NBA’s product suffers as a result. But with all that new TV money set to roll in, I doubt that change will occur.

That’s all the space that I have for this week’s edition. Once again, thanks to all those who submitted their questions, and please keep them coming. I’ll be back next Saturday with more responses.

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Poll: 2013 NBA Draft Take Two (Pick No. 11)

August 15th, 2015 at 2:25pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Drafting players is far from an exact science, and many a GM has been second-guessed for his draft night decisions. I’m willing to bet that every team executive has at least one pick that he would like a mulligan for. While life, and the NBA, doesn’t allow for such opportunities, we at Hoops Rumors decided it would be fun to give our readers a second take at picking players, complete with the benefit of hindsight.

The first NBA Draft lottery picks we’re tackling is 2013’s, the year that the Cavaliers surprised quite a few people when they nabbed UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the No. 1 overall pick. Quite a number of talented players were in that year’s player pool, including Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert, just to rattle off a few.

In the days ahead, we’ll be posting a series of reader polls that will ask you to vote on the player whom you believe should have been selected with each pick in the 2013 Draft lottery. We’ll continue onward with the Sixers, who held the No. 11 overall pick that season, and who already added a shooting guard with the No. 6 overall selection. Readers, you are now on the clock! Cast your vote for Philadelphia’s pick and check back tomorrow night for the results, as well as for your chance to vote for whom the Thunder should have taken at No. 12. But don’t limit yourself to a simple button click. Take to the comments section below and share your thoughts on the pick and why you voted the way that you did. Also, if I fail to list a player who you think should be selected, feel free to post that in the comments section and I’ll be certain to tally those votes as well.

Draft Results thus far:

  1. Cavaliers: Giannis Antetokounmpo
  2. Magic: Victor Oladipo
  3. Wizards: Nerlens Noel
  4. Hornets: Rudy Gobert
  5. Suns: Michael Carter-Williams
  6. 76ers: Ben McLemore
  7. Kings: Mason Plumlee
  8. Pistons: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
  9. Jazz: Dennis Schröder
  10. Trail Blazers: Allen Crabbe
With the No. 11 Overall Pick the Sixers Select...
Shabazz Muhammad 16.24% (173 votes)
Gorgui Dieng 14.46% (154 votes)
Trey Burke 9.11% (97 votes)
Alex Len 8.83% (94 votes)
Otto Porter 8.17% (87 votes)
C.J. McCollum 7.79% (83 votes)
Isaiah Canaan 7.51% (80 votes)
Steven Adams 6.85% (73 votes)
Tim Hardaway Jr. 6.48% (69 votes)
Kelly Olynyk 4.41% (47 votes)
Shane Larkin 2.07% (22 votes)
Ryan Kelly 1.88% (20 votes)
Tony Snell 1.78% (19 votes)
Cody Zeller 1.69% (18 votes)
Anthony Bennett 1.13% (12 votes)
Ray McCallum 0.75% (8 votes)
Lucas Nogueira 0.47% (5 votes)
Archie Goodwin 0.19% (2 votes)
Andre Roberson 0.09% (1 votes)
Nemanja Nedovic 0.09% (1 votes)
Total Votes: 1,065

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Hoops Rumors Originals 8/9/15-8/15/15

August 15th, 2015 at 11:35am CST by Eddie Scarito

Here’s a look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week…

  • As a part of our continuing series “The Beat,” Chuck Myron interviewed Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic on a number of topics regarding the Phoenix Suns.
  • If you missed the week’s live chat, you can view the transcript here.
  • Chris Crouse examined the free agent stock of J.R. Smith.
  • I broke down the 2015/16 salary cap commitments for the Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, and Pistons.
  • Chuck ran down where the players who inked 10-day contracts during the 2014/15 campaign are now.
  • Zach Links highlighted some of the better basketball blogs around in his weekly installment of Hoops Links.
  • Dana Gauruder looked at the free agent stock of Tayshaun Prince.
  • Chuck examined Bucks forward John Henson, and the Raptors’ Jonas Valanciunas as contract extension candidates.
  • We asked readers to vote on who they would select if they had the chance to redo the lottery portion of the 2013 NBA Draft. Here are the results for the No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7, No. 8, No. 9, and No. 10 overall picks.
  • Chuck ran down the teams with open roster spots heading into the 2015/16 campaign.
  • If you missed any of our daily reader-driven discussions, be sure to check out the Community Shootaround archives.
  • I answered reader questions in Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag.
  • Chuck ran down the players who have been traded multiple times since the beginning of the 2014/15 season.
  • Here’s how you can follow Hoops Rumors on social media and RSS feeds.
  • Chuck broke down the largest remaining trade exceptions, as well as opined on how likely each was to be used.
  • We reviewed our commenting policy. Play nice everyone.
  • Chuck examined how players who turned down their options fared this offseason.
  • We ran down the scenarios involving traded 2016 first round draft picks.
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Teams With Dead Money On Their Books

August 14th, 2015 at 10:27pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Not every dollar of each team’s payroll shows up on the court, as franchises often dish out funds to players who are no longer on their rosters. Players with guaranteed money who are waived, either through a standard waiver release, use of the stretch provision, or when a buyout arrangement is reached, still count against a team’s cap figure for the duration of their contracts, or the amount of time specified by the collective bargaining agreement for when a player’s salary is stretched. There are even situations that arise, like the one with JaVale McGee and the Sixers, where these players are actually the highest-paid on the team! McGee is set to collect $12MM from Philly, and he won’t score one point or collect one rebound for the franchise this season. The next highest-paid athlete on the Sixers’ roster is Gerald Wallace, who is scheduled to earn $10,105,855. He could conceivably be a buyout or waiver candidate himself at some point this season, though that is merely my speculation.

Listed below in alphabetical order are the names and cap hits associated with players who are no longer on the rosters of teams that still owe them money. Teams are able to carry as many as 20 players prior to the beginning of the regular season, so there will be quite a few training camp deals inked that include partially guaranteed funds. As franchises pare down their rosters to the regular season maximum of 15, any players cut loose with guaranteed money will be added to this list.

Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets

Chicago Bulls

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Los Angeles Clippers

Memphis Grizzlies

Milwaukee Bucks

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

Sacramento Kings

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: 2013 NBA Draft Take Two (Pick No. 10)

August 14th, 2015 at 8:02pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Drafting players is far from an exact science, and many a GM has been second-guessed for his draft night decisions. I’m willing to bet that every team executive has at least one pick that he would like a mulligan for. While life, and the NBA, doesn’t allow for such opportunities, we at Hoops Rumors decided it would be fun to give our readers a second take at picking players, complete with the benefit of hindsight.

The first NBA Draft lottery picks we’re tackling is 2013’s, the year that the Cavaliers surprised quite a few people when they nabbed UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the No. 1 overall pick. Quite a number of talented players were in that year’s player pool, including Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert, just to rattle off a few.

In the days ahead, we’ll be posting a series of reader polls that will ask you to vote on the player whom you believe should have been selected with each pick in the 2013 Draft lottery. We’ll continue onward with the Trail Blazers, who held the No. 10 overall pick that season. Readers, you are now on the clock! Cast your vote for Portland’s pick and check back tomorrow night for the results, as well as for your chance to vote for whom the Sixers should have taken at No. 11. But don’t limit yourself to a simple button click. Take to the comments section below and share your thoughts on the pick and why you voted the way that you did. Also, if I fail to list a player who you think should be selected, feel free to post that in the comments section and I’ll be certain to tally those votes as well.

Draft Results thus far:

  1. Cavaliers: Giannis Antetokounmpo
  2. Magic: Victor Oladipo
  3. Wizards: Nerlens Noel
  4. Hornets: Rudy Gobert
  5. Suns: Michael Carter-Williams
  6. 76ers: Ben McLemore
  7. Kings: Mason Plumlee
  8. Pistons: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
  9. Jazz: Dennis Schröder
With the No. 10 Overall Pick the Blazers Select...
Gorgui Dieng 17.93% (184 votes)
Allen Crabbe 17.25% (177 votes)
Trey Burke 9.55% (98 votes)
Alex Len 9.45% (97 votes)
Otto Porter 8.77% (90 votes)
Steven Adams 8.38% (86 votes)
Tim Hardaway Jr. 6.92% (71 votes)
C.J. McCollum 4.00% (41 votes)
Shabazz Muhammad 3.70% (38 votes)
Kelly Olynyk 3.51% (36 votes)
Robert Covington 2.92% (30 votes)
Cody Zeller 2.14% (22 votes)
Anthony Bennett 1.36% (14 votes)
Tony Snell 1.07% (11 votes)
Matthew Dellavedova 0.88% (9 votes)
Sergey Karasev 0.39% (4 votes)
Ray McCallum 0.39% (4 votes)
Mike Muscala 0.29% (3 votes)
Lucas Nogueira 0.19% (2 votes)
Archie Goodwin 0.19% (2 votes)
Ryan Kelly 0.19% (2 votes)
Shane Larkin 0.10% (1 votes)
Solomon Hill 0.10% (1 votes)
Reggie Bullock 0.10% (1 votes)
Nemanja Nedovic 0.10% (1 votes)
Isaiah Canaan 0.10% (1 votes)
Andre Roberson 0.00% (0 votes)
Grant Jerrett 0.00% (0 votes)
Total Votes: 1,026

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Traded 2016 First-Round Pick Exchange Scenarios

August 14th, 2015 at 2:34pm CST by Chuck Myron

The moves that teams make in the offseason don’t merely affect the season to come. Indeed, every transaction has a ripple effect of some kind, and as rosters get either better or worse this time of year, it has significant ramifications on next year’s draft. Nearly 20 different scenarios exist in which a first-round pick may change hands. As usual, some are more likely than others, but the relative likelihood in many cases has changed since July 1st.

We’ll break down every scenario here, with an assist from our Round-by-Round Traded Picks Register, which Mark Porcaro compiles, and RealGM’s comprehensive database. The simple explanation for the likehihood of each pick exchange is in bold, with details to follow:

  • Nets to Celtics (unprotected) — 100% certain to happen
  • Cavaliers to Suns (top-10 protected) — Overwhelmingly likely to happen: It would take devastating injuries to LeBron James and others or one of the most disappointing seasons in NBA history for the Suns to miss out on this one.
  • Mavericks to Celtics (top-7 protected) — Likely to happen: Dallas will probably be in the mix for one of the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference, but with lots of changes, a still-healing Wesley Matthews, the hole at center that DeAndre Jordan left, and Dirk Nowitzki’s 37-year-old legs, certainty is elusive.
  • Heat to Warriors (Golden State gets Miami’s pick if it falls outside the top 10 and comes after Golden State’s pick and Oklahoma City’s pick) — Unlikely to happen: A complicated set of scenarios surround this exchange, but essentially, the Heat, who missed the playoffs last season, would have to finish with a better record than the Warriors, who are coming off 67 wins and the championship, and the Thunder, who are getting Kevin Durant back. Miami will be better, but so will Oklahoma City, and it seems a long shot the Heat will eclipse them both.
  • Heat to Sixers (Philadelphia gets Miami’s pick if it falls outside the top 10 and comes before either Golden State’s pick or Oklahoma City’s pick) — Likely to happen: This would-be swap is a corollary to the long shot Heat/Warriors possibility described above. As long as that vague Golden State possibility doesn’t materialize and the Heat make the playoffs as expected, Miami’s pick is going to Philly.
  • Thunder to Warriors (Golden State gets Oklahoma City’s pick if it falls outside the top 15 and comes after Miami’s pick and Oklahoma City’s pick) — Toss-up: This is another one related to the Heat/Warriors exchange above. This possibility is harder to dismiss, since it’s quite conceivable that a Thunder team at full health will end up with a better record than the Warriors.
  • Thunder to Sixers (Philadelphia gets Miami’s pick if it falls outside the top 15 and comes before either Golden State’s pick or Oklahoma City’s pick) — Toss-up: If the Thunder don’t send their pick to the Warriors, it probably goes to Philly. The only other scenario, one in which Oklahoma City would keep its pick, would involve another disappointing and likely injury-filled campaign for the Thunder in which they either miss the playoffs or barely sneak in.
  • Warriors to Sixers (Philadelphia gets Golden State’s pick if it comes before either Miami’s pick or Oklahoma City’s pick, as long as Miami’s pick falls outside the top 10 and Oklahoma City’s pick falls outside the top 15) — Toss-up: The final of this string of five possible outcomes most likely depends on whether the Thunder finish with a better record than the Warriors do. If so, the Sixers take the Warriors’ pick. If not, Philly probably ends up with the Thunder’s.
  • Rockets to Nuggets (top-14 protected) — Likely to happen: You never say never in the Western Conference, where injuries that knock stars out for even partial seasons can turn a contender into a lottery team. Still, Houston seems like a shoo-in for the playoffs, so this pick is probably going to Denver.
  • Lakers to Sixers (top-3 protected) — Likely to happen: The Lakers look like they’ll be better this year, and even if they don’t make the playoffs, they’ll probably be picking outside the top three. This one may well come down to the bounce of a lottery ping-pong ball, however.
  • Grizzlies to Nuggets (Denver gets the Memphis pick if it falls anywhere from No. 6 to No. 14) — Unlikely to happen: This pick essentially carries double-protection, at the top of the draft and at the bottom. Again, it’s tough to definitively say any Western Conference team will make the playoffs, as last year’s injury-riddled Thunder showed, but presuming the Grizzlies do, they’ll keep their pick.
  • Timberwolves to Celtics (top-12 protected) — Unlikely to happen: The Timberwolves have an unmistakably talented roster, but most of that talent is either still developing (Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins) or well past its prime (Kevin Garnett, free agent signee Tayshaun Prince). So, it’s tough to see the Wolves mounting a challenge for a playoff spot that’s strong enough to knock this pick out of the top 12.
  • Knicks to Nuggets (Denver gets the better pick among its own and New York’s) — Toss-up: Neither the Knicks nor the Nuggets look like playoff contenders this year, and it’s not clear which one will end up with greater chances in the lottery.
  • Knicks to Raptors (Toronto gets New York’s pick if it comes after Denver’s pick) — Toss-up: The Raptors will end up with whichever pick the Nuggets don’t take in the pick swap described immediately above.
  • Nuggets to Raptors (Toronto gets the Denver’s pick if it comes after New York’s pick) — Toss-up: See the explanation for the last two picks.
  • Trail Blazers to Nuggets (top-14 protected) — Unlikely to happen: It’s hard to know precisely how well the Blazers will play after they replaced four out of five starters this summer. It’s not inconceivable that Portland makes the playoffs, but it doesn’t appear the most probable outcome in a difficult Western Conference, since the Blazers don’t have the level of talent they had before this summer’s upheaval.
  • Kings to Bulls (top-10 protected) — Toss-up: Sacramento, like Portland, has a chance at one of the last playoff spots in the West, though the Kings are moving in the opposite direction. Of course, the Kings also have perhaps the most combustible roster in the NBA, given the DeMarcus Cousins trade rumors earlier this summer and the addition of temperamental Rajon Rondo, among other factors. So, this pick swap is tough to call.
  • Kings to Sixers (Philadelphia gets the better of Sacramento’s pick and its own if Sacramento’s pick falls inside the top 10) — Unlikely: The Sixers will root for chaos in Sacramento, since Philadelphia would thus have an extra chance to win the lottery. Still, the Kings will probably be better than the Sixers this year, barring a complete disaster for Sacramento, so this pick doesn’t appear destined for Philly.
  • Sixers to Kings (Sacramento gets the inferior of its own pick and Philadelphia’s pick if its own pick falls inside the top 10) — Unlikely: Since Philadelphia probably doesn’t end up with Sacramento’s pick, the Sixers probably won’t be sending their pick to the Kings.
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Teams With Open Regular Season Roster Spots

August 14th, 2015 at 10:29am CST by Chuck Myron

The offseason isn’t over in Cleveland by a long shot. Thanks to lingering negotiations with Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith, the Cavs have seemingly stalled as they possess 11 fully guaranteed deals but haven’t signed anyone else. They’ll have to sign at least two more players, and it’s likely they sign several more before the start of training camp.

A glance at the teams that have fewer than 15 fully guaranteed deals provides a chance to see where this year’s remaining free agents might fit in. Six teams already have 15 full guarantees on their books, while the Pistons, Celtics and Timberwolves would appear among the most likely to make a trade before opening night. That’s because those teams have more than 15 full guarantees, so they’d surely like to avoid eating salary.

Here’s a look at where each team stands. Players without full guarantees are listed by the names of the teams with open spots on their 15-man rosters. Teams can carry as many as 20 players in the offseason, but they must cut down to 15 for opening night.

Four open spots

  • Cavaliers — No players have contracts without full guarantees.

Three open spots

  • Heat — Tyler Johnson ($422,530), Hassan Whiteside ($245,337), James Ennis ($0)
  • Lakers — Tarik Black ($0), Jabari Brown ($0), Jonathan Holmes (unknown), Robert Upshaw (unknown)
  • Nets — Willie Reed ($500K), Markel Brown ($150K)1, Ryan Boatright ($75K guaranteed), Quincy Miller ($50K), Donald Sloan ($50K)
  • Pelicans — No players have contracts without full guarantees.
  • Rockets — Chuck Hayes (unknown)
  • Sixers — Scottie Wilbekin ($200K), Robert Covington ($0), JaKarr Sampson ($0), Hollis Thompson ($0), T.J. McConnell (unknown), Jordan McRae (unknown), J.P. Tokoto (unknown)

Two open spots

  • Bulls — Cameron Bairstow ($425K), Cristiano Felicio (unknown)
  • Hawks — Mike Muscala ($473,638), Terran Petteway ($75K), Lamar Patterson ($75K)
  • Jazz — Jack Cooley ($0), Bryce Cotton ($0), Chris Johnson ($0), Elijah Millsap ($0)
  • Knicks — Langston Galloway ($220K)2, Thanasis Antetokounmpo ($75K), Wesley Saunders (unknown, but no more than $75K), Darion Atkins (unknown)
  • Magic — Melvin Ejim ($150K), Devyn Marble ($0), Keith Appling (unknown)
  • Spurs — Matt Bonner ($749,594), Jimmer Fredette ($507,711), Reggie Williams ($0), Youssou Ndoye (unknown), Keifer Sykes (unknown)
  • Suns — No players have contracts without full guarantees.
  • Warriors — James McAdoo ($100K), Chris Babb ($0), Ian Clark (unknown)

One open spot

  • Clippers — Yanick Moreira (unknown)
  • Grizzlies — JaMychal Green ($150K)
  • Hornets — Elliot Williams ($80K), Aaron Harrison ($75K)
  • Kings — David Stockton ($0), Vince Hunter (unknown)
  • Raptors — Ronald Roberts ($75K), Michale Kyser ($0), Axel Toupane ($0), Shannon Scott (unknown)
  • Trail Blazers — Cliff Alexander ($100K), Tim Frazier ($0), Phil Pressey ($0)

No open spots

  • Bucks
  • Mavericks
  • Nuggets
  • Pacers
  • Thunder
  • Wizards

Overloaded

  • Pistons (17 full guarantees)
  • Celtics (16 full guarantees)
  • Timberwolves (16 full guarantees)

1 — Brown’s salary with the Nets would become fully guaranteed at the start of training camp.
2 — Galloway’s salary with the Knicks would become $440K guaranteed before the start of training camp.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

Which battle over roster spots in training camp are you most looking forward to? Leave a comment to let us know.

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Poll: 2013 NBA Draft Take Two (Pick No. 9)

August 13th, 2015 at 7:44pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Drafting players is far from an exact science, and many a GM has been second-guessed for his draft night decisions. I’m willing to bet that every team executive has at least one pick that he would like a mulligan for. While life, and the NBA, doesn’t allow for such opportunities, we at Hoops Rumors decided it would be fun to give our readers a second take at picking players, complete with the benefit of hindsight.

The first NBA Draft lottery picks we’re tackling is 2013’s, the year that the Cavaliers surprised quite a few people when they nabbed UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the No. 1 overall pick. Quite a number of talented players were in that year’s player pool, including Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert, just to rattle off a few.

In the days ahead, we’ll be posting a series of reader polls that will ask you to vote on the player whom you believe should have been selected with each pick in the 2013 Draft lottery. We’ll continue onward with the Jazz, who acquired the No. 9 overall pick that season. Readers, you are now on the clock! Cast your vote for Utah’s pick and check back tomorrow night for the results, as well as for your chance to vote for whom the Trail Blazers should have taken at No. 10. But don’t limit yourself to a simple button click. Take to the comments section below and share your thoughts on the pick and why you voted the way that you did. Also, if I fail to list a player who you think should be selected, feel free to post that in the comments section and I’ll be certain to tally those votes as well.

Draft Results thus far:

  1. Cavaliers: Giannis Antetokounmpo
  2. Magic: Victor Oladipo
  3. Wizards: Nerlens Noel
  4. Hornets: Rudy Gobert
  5. Suns: Michael Carter-Williams
  6. 76ers: Ben McLemore
  7. Kings: Mason Plumlee
  8. Pistons: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
With the No. 9 Overall Pick the Jazz Select...
Dennis Schröder 25.52% (209 votes)
Gorgui Dieng 10.38% (85 votes)
Trey Burke 10.26% (84 votes)
Steven Adams 8.18% (67 votes)
Otto Porter 7.69% (63 votes)
Alex Len 7.69% (63 votes)
Tim Hardaway Jr. 7.57% (62 votes)
Shabazz Muhammad 4.88% (40 votes)
Kelly Olynyk 4.40% (36 votes)
C.J. McCollum 2.69% (22 votes)
Cody Zeller 2.56% (21 votes)
Robert Covington 2.08% (17 votes)
Matthew Dellavedova 1.71% (14 votes)
Tony Snell 1.22% (10 votes)
Anthony Bennett 0.85% (7 votes)
Lucas Nogueira 0.49% (4 votes)
Reggie Bullock 0.37% (3 votes)
Ray McCallum 0.37% (3 votes)
Sergey Karasev 0.24% (2 votes)
Solomon Hill 0.24% (2 votes)
Nemanja Nedovic 0.24% (2 votes)
Livio Jean-Charles 0.12% (1 votes)
Archie Goodwin 0.12% (1 votes)
Ryan Kelly 0.12% (1 votes)
Shane Larkin 0.00% (0 votes)
Andre Roberson 0.00% (0 votes)
Mike Muscala 0.00% (0 votes)
Total Votes: 819

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