Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Originals

Here’s a look at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

Poll: Will The Mavs Win The Title With Rondo?

Earlier in the week, the Mavs acquired four-time All-Star Rajon Rondo and reserve forward Dwight Powell from the Celtics in exchange for Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, the Mavs’ 2015 first-rounder and a 2016 second-rounder. The team was looking for improvement in order to push itself into the upper echelon in the Western Conference.

Dallas didn’t need any help on the offensive end. The Mavs were already scoring 110.1 points per game, which was best in the league. The primary reason for the trade, according to owner Mark Cuban, was to bolster the team’s defense. The point guard position was the weakest area for the Mavs, and their upgrades on defense could pay real dividends. When the playoffs come, one of Dallas’ biggest challenges will be defending All-Star point guards like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard and Tony Parker. This would have been problematic for the Mavs without Rondo. By turning their biggest weakness into a perceived strength, the Mavs now stand a fighting chance.

However, there are reasons to temper expectations after the trade. Dallas gave up three role players and by doing so, the team’s lack of depth becomes a liability, especially at the backup center position. The Mavs are now relying on 32-year-old Tyson Chandler to stay healthy without having a proven option behind him. The team is the front-runner to sign veteran free agent Jermaine O’Neal and he would fill that void, but it is unclear how big of role the 36-year-old will be able to play at this stage in his career.

Overall, the move would seem to be a net positive for Dallas, at least for this season. After going 0-5 against incumbent Western Conference playoff teams to begin the year, the team realized it needed to make adjustments in order to make it out of a tough Western Conference and reach the NBA Finals. After their blockbuster trade, how far will the Mavs advance this season?

How Far Will Mavs Advance?
Reach the Conference Finals 36.95% (398 votes)
Early Playoff Exit 34.73% (374 votes)
Win the NBA Title 15.60% (168 votes)
Reach the NBA Finals 11.88% (128 votes)
Miss the Playoffs 0.84% (9 votes)
Total Votes: 1,077

 

How The Rajon Rondo Trade Worked Financially

The Celtics, at least on the surface, didn’t reap a package for Rajon Rondo that at all resembles what the Timberwolves received for Kevin Love this past summer. Rondo, who’s two and a half years older and nine inches shorter than Love and is averaging only 8.3 points per game, isn’t quite the sort of player that Love had proven to be when Minnesota relinquished him, but the Celtics surely wanted more for him than Dallas gave up. Boston was reportedly seeking as many as three first-round picks for Rondo at times over the past year or so, but the C’s reaped only one, and the deal weakened their cap flexibility for next season, since Jameer Nelson holds a player option worth $2.855MM for 2015/16.

Still, Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge deftly crafted a trade that allowed him to use as many as three trade exceptions to create a new $12,909,090 trade exception that instantly becomes the league’s largest. Ainge and his staff took Brandan Wright‘s $5MM salary into the $5,285,816 trade exception that they created in their Keith Bogans trade and Nelson’s $2.732MM salary for this season into the trade exception left over from the deal that sent Joel Anthony away, as Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders points out. They folded Jae Crowder‘s $915,243 salary into either the remainder of the Anthony exception or the $1,334,092 that was left over from the original $4.25MM exception they created when they gave up Kris Humphries in a sign-and-trade with the Wizards this past summer, Pincus also notes.

Its unclear which path they took with Crowder, since there are benefits to both. Using the Anthony exception for Crowder preserves the $1,334,092 still on the Humphries exception, a larger amount than they’d have if they used the Humphries exception and left the Anthony exception at $1.068MM. But that’s not much of a difference, and the Anthony exception expires nearly three months later than the Humphries one does. Whichever exception Crowder’s salary went into would be reduced to an amount that’s less than the full-season minimum salary for a rookie, making it largely unusable.

The Rondo trade also allows the Celtics to create a $507,336 exception for Dwight Powell. That exception, equivalent to the rookie minimum salary, is only slightly more useful than whatever remains of the exception that Crowder’s salary went into. It’s nonetheless difficult to rule out much when it comes to Ainge and the use of trade exceptions, as this deal demonstrates. The trades that created the Humphries, Anthony and Bogans exceptions all took place within the last five months. Those transactions seemed to matter little at the time, since none of them netted the Celtics a player who remains on the roster, but collectively they gave Ainge the ammunition needed to enhance the Rondo deal. By contrast, the Mavs didn’t possess any trade exceptions entering the deal, and they needed to use all of their outgoing salaries to make the matching math work so they could absorb Rondo’s salary.

The first-round pick headed from Dallas to Boston, which will probably end up coming in the latter half of the 2016 first-round, given the protections attached to it and the Mavs’ prospects for success, isn’t necessarily the best asset that the Celtics acquired in the deal. Instead, the Celtics can use their trade exception to acquire a player or group of players who make as much as $13,009,090, or $100K more than Rondo’s salary for this season, anytime between now and next December, without sending out matching salary in return. It’d be difficult for Boston to pull that off now, since the team is still about $7MM shy of the luxury tax line, but the Celtics will have more leeway come the offseason. Indeed, the Rondo trade gives the C’s a little more breathing room beneath the tax threshold for now, since they were only about $2MM shy of it prior to the deal.

There are no guarantees that teams will be able to use trade exceptions at all, much less to use them to net star players. Still, they give teams power to make maneuvers they otherwise couldn’t. For now, that’s the greatest benefit the Celtics have reaped from parting with their point guard.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback

We value your input on the news we cover here at Hoops Rumors. That’s why we’re passing along some of the best insight from the comments on our posts and on the Hoops Rumors Facebook page. Share your reaction to and insight on the news and rumors around the league, and you’ll have a chance to see your name here.

If you haven’t commented at Hoops Rumors before, it’s easy to sign up and start. First, read our Commenting Policy. Then, scroll to the bottom of any post, and you’ll see the word “Login” on the right side atop the comments section. Click the word and choose whether you want to comment using a Disqus account or your existing Facebook, Twitter or Google account. If you don’t have a Disqus account and you want to create one, just choose that option and click “Need an account?” at the bottom right of the box that pops up.

More Hoops Rumors readers chose the Pacers than any other team in a recent poll that gauged the best fits for trade candidate Lance Stephenson, but reader ozzie is optimistic about a future in Charlotte for Stephenson.

  • I said it in the beginning, could be a problem fitting into the Hornets type of system. I don’t think he’d be missed but it’d be great if everything would just be worked out with having Lance as a Hornet. He’s young and the sky’s the limit on how far he could go. Still growing up!!! and needs to learn and get along, period.

The Lakers are in the mix for Rajon Rondo, and around the time that Rondo and Kobe Bryant kicked up a few rumors when they met for breakfast, boston2az wondered why the purple-and-gold would poke around at this point instead of waiting until free agency.

  • As much as I would love it, why in the world would the Lakers trade anything for Rondo? They’re going nowhere this year and will get a top 3 or 4 draft choice. Then they can get Rondo for nothing after the season. So the idea is that they trade a lot for Rondo so that they can win a couple of more games and mess up their draft selection?

Ralow believes the Knicks are without the necessary assets to trade for a long-term fixture and applauds team president Phil Jackson‘s willingness to be hesitant about making a deal.

  • This is precisely why he said they aren’t going to make a trade at this point. No trades just to be making a trade as the last 5 Knicks GMs always seemed to do. I’m glad someone is finally showing some patience in MSG. If Isiah Thomas had any patience, we would have drafted [Joakim] Noah and [LaMarcus] Aldridge instead of trading them (as draft picks) for one decent year of Eddy Curry.

Check out what more readers had to say in previous editions of Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback. We appreciate everyone who adds to the dialogue at Hoops Rumors, and we look forward to seeing more responses like these from you!

Players On De Facto Non-Guaranteed Deals

More than two dozen current NBA players without full guarantees on their salaries for this season have at least a modicum of salary protection in the form of partially guaranteed money. Many of them had a leg up in training camp because of that cash, which would have made it more costly for their teams to let them go and keep another player who had a non-guaranteed deal. However, the majority of the players who have partially guaranteed salary this season have already earned more than those amounts and have no guaranteed money for any subsequent seasons on their contracts, meaning they’re now on de facto non-guaranteed pacts.

Tarik Black received a partial guarantee worth $50K when he signed with the Rockets for this season. He beat out some players with fully guaranteed salaries to earn a spot on the opening-night roster, but for much of the season, he’s kept his place on the team even though the Rockets would no longer owe him any extra money if they let him go. Precisely 30% of the season has already lapsed, but Black’s partial guarantee covered only about 10% of his full season’s pay. By virtue of sticking around as long as he has, the Rockets have already paid out much more than that $50K, meaning they wouldn’t be on the hook for any more money if they let Black go today.

Several others are in a similar position, as the list below shows, with the partially guaranteed amount and the full season salary for each player in parentheses. The final figures here are rounded to the nearest $1K:

Two players appear set to cross that threshold soon. Dewayne Dedmon, guaranteed $250K of a salary worth about $816,482, will, as of Friday, have stayed on the Magic’s roster longer than the amount of time his partial guarantee covers. The same will be true come January 3rd for Kings power forward Eric Moreland, who will make no less than $200K of his $507,336 salary. Other players on partially guaranteed deals won’t surpass their guaranteed amounts by January 7th, the last day teams can waive non-guaranteed contracts before those deals become fully guaranteed. They’re listed here:

Notes:

— Various reports over the summer left it unclear just how much of Pacers power forward Luis Scola‘s salary is partially guaranteed, so he’s not listed above.

— The dates considered in the calculations for this post presume that each player’s salary is to be distributed in even amounts during the season. Players are permitted to receive advances of up to the lesser of 80% of their guaranteed salary or 50% of their base salary if they’re not on minimum-salary contracts. Minimum-salary players can draw advances up to the lesser of 80% of their guaranteed salaries or 7.5% of their base salaries. Still, it’s profoundly uncommon for a player on a contract that’s not fully guaranteed to receive an advance.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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NBA Players Who Can’t Be Traded This Season

Most offseason signees became eligible for inclusion in trades Monday, meaning the vast majority of NBA players are subject to a trade between now and the February 19th trade deadline. Only a small fraction of those players will actually end up in deals, in part because teams have no motivation to trade certain players and in part because their teams won’t be able to find suitable exchanges. There are also trade restrictions on several players that don’t necessarily preclude their teams from making a swap but make it more difficult to pull one off.

A handful of players have no-trade clauses written into their contracts, and many more have de facto no-trade clauses because they re-signed with their teams on a one-year deal or a two-year deal that includes an option, or because they signed an offer sheet that their original team matched. Those players are difficult to trade, but it’s not impossible. Kevin Garnett waived his no-trade clause to approve the deal that sent him from the Celtics to the Nets in 2013, and Aaron Brooks gave his OK to a trade that sent him from the Rockets to the Nuggets at last season’s deadline in spite of a de facto no-trade clause. Yet there’s simply no way to work around the restriction on players who sign within three months of the trade deadline or sign certain kinds of veteran extensions within six months of it.

Seven of the 10 players who are off-limits for trades during the 2014/15 regular season signed after November 19th, the point at which the trade deadline was three months away. Teams can’t trade players at any point during the season within three months of having signed them. So, even if the Sixers wanted to include Furkan Aldemir, who signed Monday, in a trade, they couldn’t until after the regular season. The same is true for the Nets and Darius Morris, who signed with Brooklyn last week. If the Nets make the playoffs and Morris is on Brooklyn’s roster for the postseason, the team couldn’t trade him until after it’s eliminated.

The Lakers can’t move Carlos Boozer at any point this season because they claimed him off amnesty waivers. Any time a team claims a player through that process, that team can’t deal him until the following July 1st.

The rule that prevents the Cavs from trading Anderson Varejao and the Kings from dealing Rudy Gay at any point this season rarely comes into play. They’re only the fifth and sixth players, respectively, to have signed veteran extensions under the existing collective bargaining agreement. Both signed extensions that tacked three seasons onto their existing contracts and involve raises of greater than 4.5%, which means those extensions couldn’t have been part of extend-and-trade transactions. Even though the extend-and-trade is largely a vestige of old CBAs, it lives on through Varejao and Gay. That’s because anytime a team signs a player to an extension that doesn’t fit the restrictions called for under an extend-and-trade, the team can’t trade him for six months. Varejao signed his extension in October, and Gay put pen to paper in November, so they can’t be traded until the spring. Tony Parker and Zach Randolph also signed extensions in recent months that would have run afoul of extend-and-trade rules, but the six-month trade restrictions on both will expire before the trade deadline.

Here’s a list of every player who can’t be traded at any point during the regular season this year:

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Poll: Best Fit For Lance Stephenson?

You’ve got to give it to Lance Stephenson. Whether he’s blowing in LeBron James‘ ear or stirring up trouble elsewhere, the talented shooting guard is rarely boring. The question, however, is whether or not he’s worth the headaches that he inevitably comes with. The Hornets sure don’t seem to think so, as they’ve reportedly discussed moving him with a handful of teams in recent days.

After losing in Cleveland tonight, Charlotte is off to a disastrous 6-18 start. Stephenson has complained about his role in the offense, struggled to learn the team’s system and been generally unable to co-exist with point guard Kemba Walker. Nearly 60% of Hoops Rumors readers thought the Hornets should trade Stephenson as of two weeks ago and the team has gone 2-4 since.

It seems like Charlotte, a team that was perceived as a contender in the East as recently as a month or so ago, is ready to pull the plug on its prized offseason acquisition. If that is indeed what transpires, what team is best suited to bring aboard the polarizing Stephenson? His talent is undeniable and he is still only 24 years old, but he also brings a level of volatility that had one writer today caution the Pacers from staging a reunion.

So, of the teams he’s been linked to, which team do you think should roll the dice on Lance?

Best Fit For Lance Stephenson?
Pacers 38.53% (413 votes)
A different team 21.36% (229 votes)
Nets 18.28% (196 votes)
Clippers 14.09% (151 votes)
Nuggets 7.74% (83 votes)
Total Votes: 1,072

Hoops Rumors Originals

Here’s a look at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

2014/15 Salary Rankings: Centers

Hoops Rumors is in the process of ranking the cap hit for each NBA player by position. I’ve already posted the point guard, shooting guard, small forward, and power forward salary rankings for the 2014/15 campaign. The next spot on the hardwood that I’ll be looking at is the center position for the 2014/15 season.

All told, NBA teams have committed a total of $383,653,157 in cap hits this season to the men tasked with patrolling the paint around the league. The average hit for the five spot this season is a more than respectable $5,048,068, with the Rockets’ Dwight Howard topping the list with a salary of $21,436,721.

It should be noted that teams won’t necessarily pay out every dollar listed here. There are quite a few players who have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts. Some of those players will be sweating it out all the way until January 7th. That’s when teams must waive players with no specific guarantee date written into their contracts to avoid having to guarantee their salaries for the rest of the season. Most salaries align with cap hits, but that’s not the case for a player like Jeremy Lin, who’s getting close to $15MM from the Lakers this season even though his cap hit is little more than half that amount, because of the contract he signed through the Gilbert Arenas Provision. In addition, incentive clauses that a player either triggers or fails to meet can leave a player with more or less money than his cap hit reflects.

Still, the purpose of this list is to show the relative pay scale by position, which is why all contracts are included in this post. The only deals which were omitted were for players with non-guaranteed deals who were already waived.

The league’s centers are listed below, in descending order of salary:

  1. Dwight Howard (Rockets) $21,436,721
  2. Marc Gasol (Grizzlies) $15,829,688
  3. Brook Lopez (Nets) $15,719,062
  4. Roy Hibbert (Pacers) $14,898,938
  5. Tyson Chandler (Mavs) $14,846,887
  6. DeMarcus Cousins (Kings) $14,746,000
  7. Al Jefferson (Hornets) $13.5MM
  8. Andrew Bogut (Warriors) $12,972,973
  9. Joakim Noah (Bulls) $12.7MM
  10. Nikola Pekovic (Wolves) $12.1MM
  11. Al Horford (Hawks) $12MM
  12. DeAndre Jordan (Clippers) $11,440,123
  13. JaVale McGee (Nuggets) $11,250,000
  14. Larry Sanders (Bucks) $11MM
  15. Marcin Gortat (Wizards) $10,434,782
  16. Anderson Varejao (Cavs) $9,704,545
  17. Kendrick Perkins (Thunder) $9,654,342
  18. Jordan Hill (Lakers) $9MM
  19. Omer Asik (Pelicans) $8,374,646
  20. Robin Lopez (Blazers) $6,124,729
  21. Chuck Hayes (Raptors) $5,958,750
  22. Enes Kanter (Jazz) $5,694,674
  23. J.J. Hickson (Nuggets) $5,381,750
  24. Chris Andersen (Heat) $5,375,000
  25. Spencer Hawes (Clippers) $5,305,000
  26. Zaza Pachulia (Bucks) $5.2MM
  27. Chris Kaman (Blazers) $4.8MM
  28. Timofey Mozgov (Cavs) $4,650,000
  29. Joel Embiid (Sixers) $4,427,640
  30. Samuel Dalembert (Waived by Knicks) $4,051,527
  31. Cody Zeller (Hornets) $4,030,560
  32. Ian Mahinmi (Pacers) $4MM
  33. Kevin Seraphin (Wizards) $3,898,693
  34. Bismack Biyombo (Hornets) $3,873,398
  35. Joel Anthony (Pistons) $3.8MM
  36. Jonas Valanciunas (Raptors) $3,678,360
  37. Alex Len (Suns) $3,649,920
  38. Jason Smith (Knicks) $3,278,000
  39. Joel Freeland (Blazers) $3,013,512
  40. Kosta Koufos (Grizzlies) $3MM
  41. Nikola Vucevic (Magic) $2,751,260
  42. Udonis Haslem (Heat) $2,732,000
  43. Andre Drummond (Pistons) $2,568,360
  44. Meyers Leonard (Blazers) $2,317,920
  45. Brendan Haywood (Cavs) $2,213,688
  46. Steven Adams (Thunder) $2,184,960
  47. Vitor Faverani (Celtics) $2,090,000
  48. Kelly Olynyk (Celtics) $2,075,760
  49. DeJuan Blair (Wizards) $2MM
  50. Lucas Nogueira (Raptors) $1,762,680
  51. Jusuf Nurkic (Nuggets) $1,762,680
  52. Tyler Zeller (Celtics) $1,703,760
  53. Ronny Turiaf (Wolves) $1.5MM
  54. Gorgui Dieng (Wolves) $1,413,480
  55. Mason Plumlee (Nets) $1,357,080
  56. Pero Antic (Hawks) $1.25MM
  57. Clint Capela (Rockets) $1,189,200
  58. Miles Plumlee (Suns) $1,169,880
  59. Rudy Gobert (Jazz) $1,127,400
  60. Festus Ezeli (Warriors) $1,112,880
  61. Alexis Ajinca (Pelicans) $981,784
  62. Cole Aldrich (Knicks) $915,243
  63. Ryan Hollins (Kings) $915,243
  64. Nazr Mohammed (Bulls) $915,243
  65. Robert Sacre (Lakers) $915,243
  66. Henry Sims (Sixers) $915,243
  67. Greg Stiemsma (Raptors) $915,243
  68. Dewayne Dedmon (Magic) $816,482
  69. Justin Hamilton (Heat) $816,482
  70. Jerome Jordan (Nets) $816,482
  71. Ognjen Kuzmic (Warriors) $816,482
  72. Jeff Withey (Pelicans) $816,482
  73. Hassan Whiteside (Heat) $769,881
  74. Alex Kirk (Waived by Knicks) $507,336
  75. Fab Melo (Waived by Grizzlies) $437,080
  76. Miroslav Raduljica (Waived by Clippers) $300K

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.