Pacers Rumors

3. Will the Pacers make a major splash in free agency or on the trade market?

At the trade deadline, several Pacers players implored president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard not to break up the squad. Those players argued that the club’s best move would be to stand pat in order to avoid messing with Indiana’s chemistry and success. Pritchard listened, and the Pacers didn’t make a deadline deal.

That anecdote is worth keeping in mind as Indiana considers trade options this summer. Pritchard will probably make a trade or two if the right opportunity arises, but the Pacers are unlikely to overhaul their roster drastically by packaging three or four regular contributors for one standout player. Not after seeing how well this group meshed during the 2017/18 season.

With cap room available this offseason, the free agent market might represent the best path for the Pacers to add another impact player to the mix. However, Indiana typically isn’t a go-to destination for top free agents, and Pritchard’s own comments this spring about the franchise’s aversion to “big names” and “big personalities” suggest the club is unlikely to be in the mix for stars.

The Pacers will do their due diligence on any signing or trade that could increase their ceiling for 2018/19, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office ultimately decides to take an approach similar to last year’s, when multiple free agents joined the team on short-term, mid-level-type contracts.

4. Will Myles Turner be extended?

If the Pacers do explore a blockbuster deal, Turner would make some sense as a centerpiece. He didn’t have the breakout year that many observers expected in 2017/18, and there’s plenty of overlap between him and Sabonis, raising some questions about whether both players have long-term futures in Indiana.

As a 22-year-old big man who can make three-pointers and block shots, Turner would have substantial trade value. He also has tremendous value to the Pacers, which is why there’s a much better chance that the team hangs onto him and attempts to figure out how to best maximize both his and Sabonis’ skill sets.

Assuming Turner remains on the roster, the Pacers will face another decision on him this offseason — is a long-term extension in the cards? Turner will be extension-eligible for the first time between July 1 and the start of the regular season, and this might be the best time for the club to strike. After all, Turner is coming off something of a down season. If he bounces back with a career year in 2018/19, he’ll get even more expensive as he enters restricted free agency.

I expect the Pacers to explore a long-term deal for Turner in the coming months, perhaps even finalizing a deal if the price is right. But with plenty of teams around the league expected to clear cap room for 2019, Turner’s representatives would be smart not to settle for a team-friendly offer in 2018. And if Indiana can’t get a discount, the club is probably best off keeping its options open by waiting until next year to commit to Turner.

5. What will the Pacers do with their first-round pick?

Armed with the No. 23 overall pick, the Pacers have focused primarily on forwards and swingmen in their group workouts leading up to this year’s draft.

It makes sense that the team would be eyeing that sort of player. In Oladipo, Collison, Cory Joseph, and Lance Stephenson, the Pacers have no shortage of ball-handlers in the backcourt, and Turner and Sabonis figure to man the middle. Acquiring a three-and-D small forward to pair with Bogdanovic – or a power forward as Young insurance – seems logical.

Kevin Huerter, Dzanan Musa, Troy Brown, Jacob Evans, Chandler Hutchison, and Keita Bates-Diop are among the prospects who could be options for Indiana at No. 23. Given how sparingly 2017 first-rounder T.J. Leaf was used in his rookie season, the Pacers probably won’t expect an immediate impact from this year’s top pick. That means targeting the player whose long-term outlook they like the best.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pacers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

• Victor Oladipo ($21,000,000)
• Cory Joseph ($7,945,000): Exercised player option
• Al Jefferson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
• Myles Turner ($3,410,284)
• Domantas Sabonis ($2,659,800)
• T.J. Leaf ($2,407,560)
• Monta Ellis ($2,245,400) — Waived via stretch provision
• Darren Collison ($2,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
• Bojan Bogdanovic ($1,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.³
• Ike Anigbogu ($690,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.⁴
  
• Total: $47,858,044
  

Player Options

• Thaddeus Young ($13,764,045)
• Total: $13,764,045

Team Options

• Lance Stephenson ($4,360,000)
• Joe Young ($1,600,520)⁵
• Total: $5,960,520

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Bojan Bogdanovic ($9,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.³
• Darren Collison ($8,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
• Al Jefferson ($6,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
• Alex Poythress ($1,544,951)⁶
• Ike Anigbogu ($688,242) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.⁴
• Total: $25,233,193

Restricted Free Agents

• None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• No. 23 overall pick ($1,895,624)
• Trevor Booker ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Glenn Robinson III ($1,499,698): Bird rights
• Total: $4,895,020

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $14,602,734

• Our projection accounts for Indiana’s five fully guaranteed salaries, Thaddeus Young‘s player option, full salaries for Bogdanovic, Collison, and Anigbogu, Stephenson’s team option, and cap holds for the first-round pick and one empty roster spot. The result? A total team salary of $86,397,266. However, if Young opts out and/or the Pacers opt to cut more players with non-guaranteed deals, the team could double or even triple its projected cap space.

Footnotes:

1. There are conflicting reports on Jefferson’s guarantee date. His salary becomes fully guaranteed after either July 2 or January 10.
2. Collison’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
3. Bogdanovic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
4. Anigbogu’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
5. Young’s salary would still be non-guaranteed until July 1 if his option is exercised.
6. Poythress’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 25.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.