The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the sixth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
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The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
The lottery results since 2021 have featured fewer surprises. Perhaps, after a few relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2024. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Sunday, May 12.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2024 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.
Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WSH | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 13.3 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 27.1 | 7.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 13.2 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 24.6 | 16.4 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAS | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| TOR* | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| MEM | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| UTH* | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| BKN* | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| ATL | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| CHI | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| HOU* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| SAC | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| GSW* | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96.6 |
Notes:
- The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it lands outside the top six.
- The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top 10.
- The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
- The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top four.
- The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it lands outside the top four.
The full pre-lottery 2024 draft order can be found right here.