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NBA Middle Class Deals

August 7th, 2014 at 3:56pm CST by Chuck Myron

The NBA’s middle class might not be vanishing, but it is not robust. There has been no evidence of drastic change in the willingness of teams to hand out middle class deals over the past few years, as team sources and former interim players union executive director Ron Klempner told Grantland’s Zach Lowe for a piece published in April. Lowe defined a middle class deal as one with annual salaries that fell between $5MM and $10MM. There have been 108 signings or agreements between free agents and NBA teams so far this summer, according to our Free Agent Tracker, and 20 of them fall with Lowe’s range. But the equation changes with a slight alteration to the definition of middle class.

The NBA’s non-taxpayer mid-level exception this season calls for a deal with a starting salary of up to $5.305MM. The most a player could receive through this exception is slightly more than $22.652MM over four years. That works out to an average annual value of about $5.663MM. That’s strikingly close to the league’s $5.632MM estimated average salary for 2014/15 season. The average annual value of a four-year mid-level deal would nonetheless likely end up beneath the NBA average salary over the full span of the contract, since average salaries have risen each season since the first one under the latest collective bargaining agreement. That equation isn’t different even for a player who signs a shorter mid-level contract, since the 4.5% annual raises involved in a mid-level deal boost the average annual value of longer such contracts. The average annual value of a two-year mid-level deal, for instance, is only about $5.425MM, beneath this year’s estimated average salary.

The exception is a tool that teams can use without opening cap space. If we remove the deals that would have fit within the parameters of the mid-level and instead define middle class deals as those that come in above the mid-level amount, only 12 of this year’s signings and agreements fit the middle class criteria. That means teams have been largely unwilling to commit cap space to players making more than the mid-level but less than eight-figure salaries.

There’s an even more profound dearth of pacts in the next bracket. Teams have handed out only three contracts with starting salaries of at least $10MM but less than $14.746MM, the maximum salary for a player with fewer than seven years of experience. This sort of “upper middle class” deal has been exceedingly difficult for players to find this year.

I’ve listed this year’s middle class deals here, grouped by tier and listed in descending order of average annual value. The salaries are rounded to the nearest $1K.

Upper middle class ($10MM or more but less than $14.746MM)

Above mid-level deals (More than mid-level exception, less than $10MM)

Mid-level and near-mid-level ($5MM to mid-level exception)

* — The salaries in Tucker’s deal descend over the life of the contract, so his first-year salary exceeds the amount of the mid-level, while the average annual value comes in at less than the mid-level.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ray Allen

August 6th, 2014 at 10:58am CST by Chuck Myron

Ray Allen‘s offseason stands as a reminder that probable outcomes don’t always come true. A report in June indicated that he was leaning toward returning for another season and that he wanted to continue playing alongside LeBron James. That pointed to a return to the Heat, who kept the NBA’s all-time leading three-point maker in their plans. Once James bolted to the Cavs, it sent the league for a spin, and perhaps no player felt the dizzying effects as much as Allen did.

The Cavaliers reportedly began their pursuit of the 18-year veteran even before James made his choice to return to Cleveland. Mike Miller started recruiting Allen to come north as the Heat renounced their rights to Allen and used their cap space on others, leaving Miami only the minimum salary to offer. Multiple reports indicated that Allen had begun to lean toward the Cavs, but he put the brakes on that idea, dismissing not only the idea that he preferred Cleveland but raising doubt about whether he’d play at all this coming season.

That sort of back-and-forth suggests that Allen is torn about his next course of action. As he told Don Amore of the Hartford Courant this weekend, he has nothing left to prove after breaking the all-time record for three-pointers made and winning two NBA championships. He’s headed for the Hall-of-Fame sooner or later. He nonetheless remained a productive player this past season even as he stared down his 39th birthday, which took place last month. Returning for another season would allow Allen to put his three-point record further out of reach and chase one more ring, alluring draws for any competitor.

Allen’s 37.5% three-point accuracy fell below his career mark of 40% for the first time in four years this past season, but he shot just 36.3% from long range in 2009/10 and bounced back with new career highs in three-point percentage in each of the next two seasons. A more disconcerting stat from last season is his 12.8 PER, the sort of number that’s usually the domain of below-average NBA players. It was the worst PER that Allen had ever recorded, and teams considering him for more than the minimum salary might worry that his efficiency will suffer another decline.

The Jim Tanner client seemingly rebuffed the idea that he’s only worth the minimum at this point in his career during a conversation a few days ago with Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald. The Cavs and Heat can offer only the minimum, and Cleveland, with rookie head coach David Blatt, doesn’t appear to fit Allen’s preference for a veteran coach, unless he’s willing to count Blatt’s experience overseas.

A dozen NBA teams can give Allen no more than the minimum, as the Lakers have since joined those ranks since I compiled this list last month. The only teams that employ a coach with more than a season of NBA head coaching experience and have more than the minimum salary to spend are the Pistons, Rockets, Pelicans, Magic, Spurs, Raptors, Thunder and Timberwolves. Minnesota can offer just about $100K more than the minimum with the partial amount of its mid-level left over from its deal with Mo Williams, and the Thunder would be unlikely to spend more than the minimum on Allen since they’re bumping up against the luxury tax. The Raptors are flirting with the tax line, too, so they might be similarly hesitant.

That leaves just five teams capable of meeting Allen’s preferences, and only Houston and San Antonio among them are within hailing distance of a title. The Spurs could throw their entire $5.305MM mid-level exception at him if they see fit, while the Rockets could come within about $500K of matching that. Both teams have made three-point shooting a premium over the years, so Allen would fit that bill.

The Rockets would seemingly make more sense, stung as they are from an offseason that didn’t go as hoped and without a logical backup to James Harden. The Spurs have plenty of depth, but they’re closer to the title, a factor that Allen surely wouldn’t dismiss. The team-oriented culture of San Antonio might hold appeal as well, but Houston appears to be in a position of greater need and perhaps greater willingness to make a more lucrative offer, though that’s just my speculation.

Allen said to Murphy that it would take a “perfect storm scenario” for him to play this season, and while the conditions in Texas seem ripe for clouding his thoughts of retirement, the most likely outcome at the moment suggests that Allen has played his final game. But, as we’ve learned from following him this summer, there’s no safe bet.

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And-Ones: Bledsoe, Sixers, Seattle

August 5th, 2014 at 5:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

The relationship between the Suns and Eric Bledsoe continues to sour, and as it does, it’s looking like he’ll end up taking Phoenix’s one-year qualifying offer, worth about $3.7MM, tweets Chris Broussard of ESPN.com. That route would allow him to hit unrestricted free agency by next summer, but it would also represent a severe discount, not only on the maximum salary that Bledsoe has been seeking, but also from the four-year, $48MM offer the Suns have reportedly made. It’d be a surprising move if he ends up taking the QO, but it doesn’t seem as though the Rich Paul client is any closer to another deal. There’s more on Bledsoe amid the latest from around the league:

  • Four NBA executives and two agents who spoke with Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic believe that the four-year, $48MM offer the Suns reportedly made to Bledsoe is fair and don’t think that the 24-year-old point guard has merited the maximum salary. “I’m surprised that they would offer him that much,” one of the executives said. “They don’t need to. It is really fair and, in fact, generous. He is talented, but he has never put it together very long, and he hasn’t been healthy. It’s hard to turn your team over to him.”
  • The possibility that the Sixers could acquire Anthony Bennett and give up Thaddeus Young as the third team in a Kevin Love trade, one that Brian Windhorst of ESPN raised in a radio interview Monday, would be difficult to comprehend, argues Dei Lynam of CSNPhilly.com. Philadelphia’s purge of existing talent has been so profound that such a swap would seem like piling on, Lynam posits.
  • Coming up short in bids for the Bucks and Kings prompted Steve Ballmer to pounce on the chance to strike a deal to buy the Clippers and abandon his dream of bringing the NBA back to Seattle, as he tells Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times. The former Microsoft CEO said he hopes Seattle ends up with a team eventually, though he reiterated that he has no intention of moving the Clippers.
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And-Ones: McGrady, Barea, George, Bledsoe

August 4th, 2014 at 10:36pm CST by Zachary Links

Tracy McGrady, 35, is at peace with his decision to retire from professional basketball, writes Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders. While he says that he could still play in the NBA or an overseas league, and admits that he sometimes gets the itch, he’s no longer interested in putting in the necessary work. “At times I get…the urge to go back and play.  I still can, I’m young enough to still play.  My body feels good; I haven’t played in a couple of years so my body feels great.  It’s just the mental part of [not] having that drive to get back in that type of shape and to put that type of time and focus into it,” McGrady said. More from around the Association..

  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (on Twitter) gets the sense that J.J Barea wouldn’t be involved in a two-team deal involving Kevin Love and maybe not even in a three-team deal.  Because his contract could be difficult to move, Wolfson wonders aloud if the stretch provision could be back in play for the Wolves when it comes to the guard.
  • None of the 19 players remaining on Team USA’s roster are planning to pull out of international competition following Paul George‘s catastrophic injury, report Brian Windhorst and Marc Stein of ESPN.com.
  • Is Suns restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe a true No. 1 player?  David Nurse of HoopsHype looks at both sides of the argument.  On one hand, the guard has been the “other guy” everywhere he’s been from Kentucky (John Wall) to the Clippers (Chris Paul) to the Suns (Goran Dragic).  On the other hand, Bledsoe has looked like a mini-LeBron at times and is a major impact player on both sides of the court.  Ultimately, while a max contract may be tough to swallow, Nurse feels he’s worth it.
  • Mavs guard Monta Ellis could be the next NBA notable looking for a change of scenery, writes Jonathan Tjarks of RealGM.  The 29-year-old has a player option in his contract and could hit free agency next summer.  He’ll be looking for one last long-term deal and the Mavs might not want to lock themselves into a core with a number of defensive issues.

Chuck Myron contributed to this post.

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And-Ones: Wiggins, Cavs, Murry, George

August 3rd, 2014 at 10:44pm CST by Zachary Links

The No. 1 overall pick in June’s draft is in a weird spot, writes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post.  Andrew Wiggins has been heavily connected to a possible Kevin Love deal between the Wolves and Cavs and on top of that, it turns out that he hasn’t even chatted with LeBron James since the game’s top player announced in Sports Illustrated that he was going back to Cleveland.  “No. I’m sure he’s busy,” Wiggins said. “I feel like I’m busy, so I am sure he’s busy.”   More from around the NBA..

  • Toure’ Murry still has interest from the Heat, Jazz, and Clippers and a return to the Knicks remains a possibility, writes Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com.
  • Paul George‘s injury isn’t just a loss for the Pacers, it’s a loss for all of basketball, writes Candace Buckner of the Indy Star. It has been noted that in 1985, when quarterback Joe Theismann suffered a similar horrific fracture, the injury forced him into retirement at age 36. However, Buckner notes that George has the advancements of modern medicine on his side as well as his youth.
  • Italian team Ferentino is eyeing former D-League guard Chris Roberts, sources tell Paolo DePersis of Sportando.  The swingman spent last season in Serie A with Caserta averaging 11.6 PPG and 3.1 RPG.
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And-Ones: Wade, Warren, Smith, Woodbury

July 27th, 2014 at 6:41pm CST by Zachary Links

Dwyane Wade has a new favorite opponent to square off against in LeBron James, write Brandon Di Perno and Surya Fernandez of SB Nation. Wade said, “Well, it used to be Kobe Bryant…the second best all-time…now, I have a new favorite player to play against…my former teammate, LeBron.” The 2014/15 NBA schedule won’t be released until next month, but one of the highlights is sure to be the first contest between the Cavaliers and James’ former team, the Heat.  Here’s more from around the league..

  • Rookie T.J. Warren‘s game is well-suited for the Suns, writes Jesse Biancarte of Basketball Insiders.   Warren played in five games in summer league for Phoenix and averaged 17.8 points and 4.8 rebounds in 24.8 minutes.  His only noticeable weakness during this stretch was his outside shooting, something he’ll have to work on.
  • Former Duke guard Nolan Smith is working towards a two-year deal with Turkish club Galatasaray, according to David Pick of Eurobasket.com (on Twitter).  Smith was reportedly entertaining partially guaranteed offers from the Bulls and Thunder in late April.
  • Former Georgia and D-League swingman Terrance Woodbury worked out for the Nets, but he’ll instead be heading to Nicaragua to join up with Raptors de Matagalpa, a source tells Enea Trapani of Sportando (on Twitter).  In his senior year at Georgia (2008/09), Woodbury averaged 14.0 PPG and 4.6 RPG while shooting 43.1% from downtown, but he went undrafted the following summer.
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Contract Details: Brooks, Bairstow, Brown

July 23rd, 2014 at 7:55pm CST by Alex Lee

As free agent transactions around the league become official, so do the monetary specifics of their contract agreements. Here’s a round up of the latest contract details to come to light this evening:

  • The minimum salary contract Aaron Brooks signed with the Bulls is for one year, as Mark Deeks of ShamSports reveals on his updated Bulls salary page.
  • Cameron Bairstow‘s three-year contract with the Bulls is guaranteed for $425K in year two and otherwise non-guaranteed past the first season, Deeks also reports.
  • Markel Brown‘s two-year deal with the Nets is fully guaranteed in year one, with a series of guarantee dates for the second season, as Deeks shows.
  • The two-year deal the Nets gave Cory Jefferson is similar, except it’s only guaranteed for $75K this year, Deeks also notes.
  • The Nets gave Bojan Bogdanovic a 15% trade kicker on his three-year deal rather than the player option that he initially appeared to be getting, as Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders reports on his Nets salary page.
  • Robbie Hummel‘s deal with the Timberwolves is fully-guaranteed for $880K for the upcoming season, reports Pincus. It was originally reported to be worth $900K. Pincus adds that the deal allows Hummel to block any trade Minnesota may try to include him in (Twitter links).

Chuck Myron contributed to this post.

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Pacific Rumors: Bledsoe, Thomas, Clippers

July 23rd, 2014 at 1:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Suns have little interest in sending restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe away in a sign-and-trade, and Suns president of basketball operations Lon Babby is confident in the team’s two-point guard look, writes Bob Young of the Arizona Republic. The four-year, $48MM offer the Suns reportedly have out to Bledsoe is for significantly more than what the team and agent Rich Paul spoke about last fall in extension talks, Young adds. There’s more from Young’s piece amid the latest on the Suns and the rest of the Pacific Division:

  • New Suns acquisition Isaiah Thomas told Young that he felt as though the Kings were looking to replace him at every turn. “I felt very disrespected,” Thomas said. “Every year it was somebody new. I felt I did a good enough job to show them I was a starting point guard or a guy who could play a big role with their team. But they thought differently.
  • Differing opinions on the relative values of David Lee and Kevin Love, a reluctance to take on Kevin Martin, and a reticence to give up Harrison Barnes on top of it all have the Warriors holding out in talks with Minnesota, as Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group explains. That’s in addition to Golden State’s decision to keep Klay Thompson‘s name out of the discussion.
  • Attorneys for Donald Sterling made it clear Tuesday that he wants the NBA to vote to terminate his ownership of the Clippers so he can move forward with his antitrust suit against the league, tweets Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The judge in the probate trial between Sterling and his wife can rule that Shelly Sterling’s sale of the team to Steve Ballmer would go forward even if Donald Sterling appeals, but such a ruling would be difficult to come by, Shelburne adds (on Twitter).
  • The Kings are among several teams that Dan Fegan, the agent for Omri Casspi, has spoken to, as Casspi tells Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee. Casspi, whom the Pelicans are likely to waive this month, added that he has interest in returning to Sacramento, where he played his first two NBA seasons.
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Latest On Donald Sterling

July 22nd, 2014 at 10:32pm CST by Ryan Raroque

As the struggle between Donald Sterling and his wife Shelly regarding the sale of the Clippers continued in probate court today, we passed along earlier that Doc Rivers – according to the testimony of team interim CEO Dick Parsons – would no longer want to be part of the franchise if Donald remained as the team’s owner. Parsons also testified that while the Clippers have retained a majority of their sponsors throughout this ordeal, there are several of them who would only want to continue their business relationship with the team if Sterling is ousted, noted Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

There were a few more notable tidbits we’ve rounded up this evening, and you can find them below:

  • Pierce O’Donnell, a lawyer for Shelly Sterling, didn’t elaborate on the details of a meeting between Steve Ballmer, Donald, and a group of lawyers at Sterling’s Beverly Hills home on Monday. “Nothing really happened of any moment…It was pleasant. Mr. Sterling was a gentleman. But nothing came of it” (report from David Leon Moore of USA Today). Bobby Samini, an attorney for Donald, commented that he doesn’t expect a settlement to be reached. 
  • Donald alleges corporate fraud in a lawsuit he filed today in Superior Court against his wife Shelly and the NBA, tweeted Shelburne. According to Donald’s lawyer, Bobby Samini, it could be years before a ruling is handed down, says Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles.com (Twitter links).
  • In a piece for ESPN Los Angeles, Shelburne and Markazi relay Samini’s statement regarding Donald’s new lawsuit, which alleges that Donald became the sole shareholder of the Clippers once he revoked the family trust. “The new lawsuit states the seller of the team is not Donald and it’s not Shelly — the seller of the team is corporation that owns the team, and that’s LAC Basketball Club Inc…When Donald bought the team, the shares of the corporation are only in Donald’s name. They were only issued to Donald, so Donald owns the shares of the corporation. He’s the sole shareholder. He put the shares up into the trust in 1989, and when we revoked the trust, the shares go back down to him.”
  • Bank of America expert Anwar Zakkour, who helped negotiate the team’s sale agreement between Shelly and Steve Ballmer, testified that “none of us believed we could get $2 billion” when the sale process began. Zakkour also said he heard Shelly mention the phrase “Plan B” when she had spoken with her attorneys (Twitter links via Nathan Fenno of the Los Angeles Times).
  • According to Zakkour, the Clippers were initially valued between $1 billion and $1.3 billion, and that the $2 billion offer was “nirvana,” tweeted Shelburne.
  • Dean Bonham, testifying on Donald’s side, said that the Clippers could find another $2 billion bid to buy the team if the judge were to block the sale to Ballmer, noted Moore in the aforementioned USA Today report.
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And-Ones: Love, Wiggins, Sterlings, Durant

July 21st, 2014 at 1:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Cavs aren’t dangling Andrew Wiggins in trade talks with the Wolves about Kevin Love, at least for the time being, a source tells Bob Finnan of The News-Herald, who was the first to report last week that Cleveland was open to the idea of parting with Wiggins. So, while no one involved would guarantee Finnan that Wiggins wouldn’t wind up in a Love deal, it sounds like that idea is on the backburner for now. Here’s more from around the Association:

  • Testimony has resumed today in the probate trial between Clippers owners Donald and Shelly Sterling after the judge made a pair of decisions Friday that appear to help Shelly Sterling’s case, as USA Today’s David Leon Moore details. The judge has the power to allow Shelly Sterling to go forward with her sale of the Clippers to Steve Ballmer, if he rules in her favor, even if Donald Sterling decides to appeal, according to Moore.
  • A member of the players association’s executive committee told TNT’s David Aldridge that the union will discuss the idea of taking action should the Sterlings continue to own the Clippers at the start of next season, as Aldridge writes in his Morning Tip column for NBA.com.
  • Thunder assistant coach Brian Keefe, whom Knicks head coach Derek Fisher has reportedly lured to serve as a Knicks assistant, was the member of the Oklahoma City staff whom Kevin Durant trusted the most, Aldridge notes in the same piece.
  • A source tells Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Knicks GM Steve Mills recently pulled his name from contention for the union’s executive director vacancy. Mills re-emerged as a candidate this spring after having been the apparent front-runner last summer prior to taking the Knicks job.
  • The final two seasons of the four-year contract between Devin Harris and the Mavs are a little more lucrative than previously reported. He’ll make nearly $4.728MM in year three and nearly $4.903MM in the final season, which is partially guaranteed for almost $1.34MM, as Mark Deeks of ShamSports details on his Mavs salary page.
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