The rebuilding Grizzlies, who traded longtime cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in 2019, exceeded expectations in ’19/20. Rather than taking a step back with a younger roster, Memphis had its best season in three years, ultimately falling just short of a playoff spot in the Disney bubble by virtue of losing a play-in game to Portland.
Some regression was expected in 2020/21, but no one told Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. Despite dealing with some health issues – presumed second option Jaren Jackson Jr. was limited to just 11 games due to a knee injury – Memphis took another step forward, finishing the season with a 38-34 record in a tough Western Conference and then winning play-in games over San Antonio and Golden State to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
In theory, continued improvement from Morant, who turns 22 next month, and a full season of good health from Jackson should make the Grizzlies even more dangerous next season. But growth isn’t always linear, and it feels like Memphis probably needs to add some reinforcements to the current group to increase its ceiling. Fortunately, the team is in a pretty good position to do just that.
The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan:
Of the 17 players who finished the season under contract in Memphis, 14 remain under contract for next season, and the team can increase that number to 15 by exercising its option on Justise Winslow. The only free agents are Tim Frazier and Killian Tillie, neither of whom was a major contributor in 2020/21.
That means the Grizzlies are well-positioned to run it back with the current group, perhaps just adding another young player with the No. 17 overall pick and signing one veteran free agent to fill out the roster.
While the club could certainly go in that direction, I’d expect Zack Kleiman and his front office to be a little more aggressive in pursuing upgrades. The Grizzlies are loaded at certain positions and don’t have any bad contracts on their books, meaning they’re in a good spot to explore trades that consolidate their depth and land them a starting-caliber player.
That doesn’t mean I expect the Grizzlies to be the frontrunner for a star like Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal should they become available (though Beal would be a great fit). Acquiring a player of that caliber would likely involve surrendering several first-round picks, and I’m not sure Memphis is ready to take that step, especially if the player in question isn’t a lock to stick around long-term.
However, the Grizzlies certainly have the ammo to go after a second- or third-tier trade candidate — Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and/or Xavier Tillman, among others, could be included in an offer for such a player. And Memphis, which controls Utah’s 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected) and Golden State’s 2024 first-round selection (top-four protected), could afford to give up one or two first-rounders.
While none of their own key players are eligible for free agency, the Grizzlies’ decision on Winslow will be an interesting one. The team gave up a couple solid trade chips (Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder) and took on a pair of unfavorable contracts (Dion Waiters and Gorgui Dieng) at the 2020 trade deadline in order to acquire Winslow, but he hasn’t given them much so far, playing just 26 underwhelming games in Memphis since that trade.
If the Grizzlies still believe in Winslow, exercising his $13MM option makes sense. The team has no cap concerns to worry about, and if things don’t work out with Winslow, the downside is minimal, since he’ll come off the books in a year. Still, if Memphis’ faith in the former lottery pick is wavering, declining the option may be the right move — doing so would help create a chunk of cap room that could be used on a player more capable of making an impact in 2021/22.
The Grizzlies’ other important offseason decision will be on Jackson, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension. After a season essentially lost to injury, the club may want to see more from the former No. 4 overall pick before committing to a lucrative, long-term deal. But if he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly extension, it could be a good buy-low opportunity for Memphis before JJJ truly breaks out.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
Jonas Valanciunas ($14,000,000)- Dillon Brooks ($12,200,000)
- Kyle Anderson ($9,937,150)
- Ja Morant ($9,603,360)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. ($9,180,560)
- De’Anthony Melton ($8,805,976)
- Tyus Jones ($8,376,286)
- Grayson Allen ($4,054,695)
- Brandon Clarke ($2,726,880)
- John Konchar ($2,200,000)
- Desmond Bane ($2,033,160)
- Xavier Tillman ($1,517,981)
- Jontay Porter ($300,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. 1
- Sean McDermott (two-way)
- Total: $84,936,048
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Justise Winslow ($13,000,000): Bird rights
- Total: $13,000,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jontay Porter ($1,650,000) 1
- Total: $1,650,000
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 17 overall pick ($3,053,760)
- No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,053,760
Extension-Eligible Players
- Grayson Allen (rookie scale)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (rookie scale)
- Kyle Anderson (veteran)
- Tyus Jones (veteran)
- Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
- Justise Winslow (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Tim Frazier ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Tyler Dorsey ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 2
- Total: $3,338,356
Offseason Cap Outlook
If the Grizzlies waive Porter and keep their first-round pick, they’ll have about $88MM in commitments for 13 players. Ultimately then, their cap outlook figures to come down to their decision on Winslow.
Should Memphis pick up Winslow’s option, the team would still have a little cap room, but the difference between that space and the full mid-level exception for over-the-cap teams would be marginal, and the team may just decide to operate over the cap. Turning down Winslow’s option, on the other hand, could help the Grizzlies generate $24MM+ in cap space, making them a potential player for some of the top free agents in this year’s class.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Room exception: $4,910,000 3
Footnotes
- Porter’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 18.
- The cap hold for Dorsey remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. It can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. If the Grizzlies operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
If the choice is between finding a player for $24 million or keeping Winslow for $13MM and adding a player for around $11MM the choice should be obvious. Winslow has at best been disappointing and could be argued as a flat out bust. He is not worth the money.
I’m not sure exactly which free agent wings would fit into the $24MM tier, but if they could add a healthy Oladipo or an Oubre or maybe a DeRozan to their mix, Memphis could be very interesting for the next few years.
As bad a Winslow has been – and he’s been bad – Oladipo and Oubre aren’t much, if any, better. Oladipo is already talking about sitting out next season, so I don’t see any team offering him a LT deal.
And I’m not sure Oubre is even good enough to start on this Memphis team, which seems important to him. I think Anderson and Brooks are both better than him on the wing. And Melton might be too.
DeRozan could be interesting, if they could give him a bigger but shorter term contract.
Yeah after I typed their names, I realized that this is a bad year to be needing to upgrade the wing positions. I am not a fan of either Oubre or Oladipo, but they have the better track records of FA wings. And both are clear upgrades from Winslow. Oladipo is a whiner, but he is a former All Star, so if you can motivate him, you have a good player. Big IF though.
DeRozan I have always felt was underrated. I think where and when he played is a big factor. Playing in Toronto before the title and San Antonio after Duncan have not exactly been media-friendly places to play. Good player on pretty good teams, but no one really noticed.
Yeah I agree on DeRozan 100%, he’s quietly become a pretty good distributor, almost an oversized PG, in SA and not many people have seemed to take notice. Had almost .600 TS% both years there despite still not hitting 3’s. And he got to the line 7.2 times a game last year, so his athleticism is holding up pretty well so far.
I think wherever he lands – Memphis, Dallas, NY, LA – he could be a difference maker next season.
Grab Will Barton (who went to U/Memphis, for what it’s worth). Fits nicely into that backcourt/wing rotation and is a little veteran presence for a team that could use it. Nuggets have loved Kyle Anderson forever, and their costs are a pretty good match.
Memphis has cap room and a bunch of young role players who are on favorable deals – Brooks, Anderson, Melton, Allen are all positive value guys. Even Jonas probably is a guy certain teams would like.
I think the question is do you try and package those guys now, with picks, and get a star – or do you wait and monitor Jackson’s progress for another season and then reassess?
Morant is the real deal. The fate of this team’s future is really on Jackson. Is he a superstar player, or a very good player? If it’s the latter, things could get dicey quickly.
It also will depend on who ends up being on the table, if anyone, this summer. If Beal is available I would probably go all in to get him. He’s young enough and his game will age well enough that you could have a franchise backcourt for 4-6 years with him and Ja. And if Jackson hits his ceiling you might even have a contender.
Kyle Anderson was a top performer statistically, like Valensunas, and can playmake like Jenkins wants from a 3 and a high post. Morant and Brooks look tough on court but did not shoot that well. Interesting contrast that could easily be given more time to gel with JJJ and a deep prospect bench.
Derozan is quite the temptation. How would he affect Morant? Is Morant better with his hair-on-fire style or should he stabilize and shoot better?
There are prospects on the bench… Bane, Clarke, Tillman, Koncar, Melton, Dieng, TyusJ, GraysonA, and Winslow. May as well drop Winslow and skip FAs to make room for the rookies. A capspace gift for the owner! Make moves at the TDL.
Lot to like about the Griz from a talent and cap standpoint.
Ja and J3 need to improve their shooting, otherwise this team goes no where.
Melton, Bane, and Konchar are the spot starter/bench pieces I’d keep.
I’d look to deal Jonas*, Winslow, Allen, Anderson, Jones. Ziaire Williams for the wing at #17. Usman Garuba if they go the development route. Trading back isn’t the answer – they really should look to move up and grab Wagner, Johnson, or Kispert.
*If Jonas is looking for a big pay day, I’d deal him. More so because his age is at the end of the spectrum for this core. I think you could get good value back due to his contract and skillset, but let someone else pay for his Age 30-33 years. If they can re-up him at a reasonable rate – what he’s at now, I’d keep him. Value judgement.
Winslow just is a salary match at this point. Anderson isn’t quick enough. Allen is replaceable by Bane.
I think they could bring in more talent. I’m thinking target an upgrade at SG like Buddy Hield or CJ McCollum, and a Stretch 4/5 like MB3, Lauri Markkanen. Myles Turner could be an option. Or they could go risky and push chips in for Siakam.
If this were 2K you’d do:
Griz get Siakam & Hield
Raptors get Valanciunas, Winslow, MB3, 2 Grizzly Lottery Protected 1sts
Kings get #17, Anderson, Jones, and Allen
PG – Ja – Melton
SG – Buddy- Bane / Konchar
SF – Brooks – Porter
PF – Siakam – Clarke
C – J3
8M in cap space available after doing that. Probably enough to land Otto Porter to back-up the wing.