Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Hoops Rumors Originals

2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

April 1st, 2014 at 4:55pm CST by Chuck Myron

There are no changes to the top 10 players on the Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings a month after the debut edition, but the order is shuffled. Gordon Hayward and Dwyane Wade jumped up two spaces apiece, while Lance Stephenson was the most significant tumbler, falling from seventh to 10th. The regular season is nearing an end, meaning there’s limited time for guys on non-playoff teams like Hayward and Greg Monroe to state their cases. Still, money is often earned and lost in the playoffs, so there will be much at stake in the weeks ahead for many on this list.

We’ll be ranking the best of the 2014 free agents on a regular basis from now until free agency begins in July. Here’s our latest look:

  1. LeBron James — The four-time MVP is running out of time to earn his fifth such award, after a March that perhaps met his lofty standards but certainly didn’t exceed them. Still, the Heat find themselves atop the Eastern Conference standings for the first time all season today, and if a three-peat is on the offing, it’d be especially hard to see James leaving Miami with the chance of four in a row looming.
  2. Carmelo Anthony — The Bulls and Rockets appear to be ‘Melo’s top alternatives to re-signing with the Knicks, though it appears New York’s decision to hire Phil Jackson as team president has given the star forward a boost of enthusiasm about sticking around.
  3. Chris Bosh — If Bosh’s one-word answer to a true-false question is to be believed, he and LeBron will be back in Miami next season. Most league insiders reportedly feel as though all three Heat stars will opt out and hit free agency, only to re-sign with Miami.
  4. Eric Bledsoe — The point guard returned to the lineup this month, and while his scoring and shooting percentage are down, his rebounds are up. Perhaps most importantly, the Suns are 8-3 since his return. The Suns plan to match any offer for their restricted free agent, but he seems in line for the maximum salary.
  5. Greg Monroe — So much depends on who’s making basketball decisions for the Pistons come July, as I wrote when I examined the 23-year-old’s free agent stock. Detroit has fallen out of playoff contention, but Monroe had his best month of the season in March, averaging 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.
  6. Gordon Hayward — Hayward likes Salt Lake City, which is a plus for him, since the Jazz have the power to match any offer. The swingman will stay clear of negotiations and leave them to the Jazz and agent Mark Bartelstein, who can point to Hayward’s improved shooting down the stretch if he keeps up his March performance in the season’s final two weeks.
  7. Dwyane Wade — He’ll likely do as the other Heat stars do, which indicates that he’ll remain with the Heat, the only NBA team he’s ever played for. Wade is still capable of dominance, as his 11 for 12 shooting night in his hometown of Chicago this month proved.
  8. Luol Deng — The small forward appears to be counting the days until he can leave Cleveland, though there’s still an outside chance the Cavs will make the playoffs and keep Deng in their uniform a little bit longer. Deng’s numbers still haven’t returned to their Chicago levels since the midseason trade that took him from the Bulls.
  9. Zach Randolph — Z-Bo’s best shooting month of the season coincided with a 12-5 record for the Grizzlies, who are making a late season push for the playoffs. Randolph has perhaps more to gain from a strong postseason than anyone. If he can prove he’s still a beast inside at age 32, he can opt out and sign another lucrative, long-term deal.
  10. Lance Stephenson — The fourth-year shooting guard’s penchant for sins of aggression, like the technical foul that prompted his ejection for the stretch run of a key game against the Heat in March, might be his most glaring flaw. His no-holds barred attitude is also one of his greatest strengths, and GMs will have to weigh the nebulous factors of psychology and intangibles when they consider Stephenson. March has been his worst month, just as its been for the entire Pacers team.

Dirk Nowitzki has a strong chance to sneak into the top 10 next time, especially if the Mavs make the playoffs and Stephenson and the Pacers can’t turn it around. Kyle Lowry‘s making a case for himself, too, although his assists were down and his turnovers were up in March.

Note: I’m not listing players under team control for 2014/15, like Tony Parker, who has a partially guaranteed contract.

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Tyler Ennis

March 31st, 2014 at 9:14pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Tyler Ennis didn’t look like a potential lottery pick at the beginning of the season. Nor was he considered likely to leave Syracuse after just one year, but last Thursday he did just that, and declared himself eligible for this June’s NBA Draft. While considered a Five-star recruit coming out of high school by 247 Sports’ composite rankings, Ennis’ ascent up the national ranks is a bit of a surprise. The Canadian native came into the year ranked no higher than the 20th-best prospect in his class by recruiting services, but since then the Syracuse point guard has swiftly changed opinions with clutch performances and poised point guard play.

Ennis, a second-team All-ACC selection, is considered a mid-to-late lottery pick. ESPN’s Chad Ford ranks him as the tenth-best player and third-best point guard in the 2014 class, behind Dante Exum and Marcus Smart. In current mock drafts, Draft Express has him going 14th, NBA Draft.net has him being taken 18th, and Bleacher Report has him going seventh. In February, an anonymous NBA general manager told Ford (Insider subscription required) he would take Ennis over Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving.

In 34 games he averaged 12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.5 APG, and 2.1 SPG in 35.7 minutes per game. His slash line was .411/.353/.765.

Ennis has impressed scouts with maturity well beyond his age. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim consistently put the ball in his hands with the game on the line, and Ennis rewarded that faith. He made eight of his first nine shots and all 14 of his free throws during clutch situations to start the regular season, according to Chris Carlson of Syracuse.com.

Boeheim isn’t known to shower acclaim on his players, much less on freshmen, but has been quite vocal in his praise of Ennis this season. Boeheim said, “Tyler, for us, he’s so valuable. He plays 40 minutes in the [ACC games]. We can’t win a game without him. Literally. If you talk about the best pro prospect (in the ACC), it’s Jabari Parker, but who’s the most valuable to his team? We don’t have a point guard, I don’t know where we would be without Tyler Ennis.”

Scouts around the league often use the term, “feel for the game,” and Ennis has demonstrated plenty of that. He’s a smart ball-handler who works well within the framework of an offense, communicating with his teammates and keeping the ball moving. He’ll be the latest Boeheim product, following Michael Carter-Williams, who sees the court at an advanced level from the moment he steps on an NBA floor.

When looking at how his skills translate to the NBA game, Ennis’ ability to score off the pick-and-roll also stands out as being promising. Many point guards aren’t given enough trust within college-level offenses to create off the dribble, which slows their growth as they try to learn the nuances of an NBA attack. Roughly a third of Ennis’ possessions that ended in a shot attempt, turnover or foul, came as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).

Ennis is a pass-first point guard, and is as pure as they come at his position. That’s not to say he can’t put up points, but he chooses to score more as a secondary option, which is the more traditional mentality you want your point guard to operate with. It has been said that Ennis is too unselfish at times, and he doesn’t look to score as often as he should. The point guard position has changed over the years, and there aren’t many stars at the point who don’t score in volume.

One stat that jumps out is his 3.24 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s also 18th in the country with a pure point rating of 5.38, a metric devised to accurately weigh assists to turnovers relative to each other. “His assist-to-turnover ratio is almost comical,” said assistant coach Gerry McNamara. “His feel is as good as I’ve ever watched. I said that about Michael [Carter-Williams] last year. Tyler’s in that same realm. It’s difficult to speed him up. He plays at the pace that he wants to play at.”

As far as being a scorer, his shot consistency is a bit of an issue, but Ennis has range and projects as a good, if not elite shooter. He hit three-point jumpers at a 35.3% success rate and appeared more comfortable taking those shots at higher volumes as the season went along. He can also be quite deceptive. Ennis is able to gain separation for a jumper when you least expect it or find ways to avoid the contest at the rim and somehow finish around it. With a reliable stop-and-pop pull-up, Ennis can also be a threatening scorer off the dribble, even if he isn’t able to get to the rim. He has an assortment of runners, floaters and push shots he can make on the move successfully. Ennis might not evolve into a consistent scoring threat, but he can provide some points when the opportunity calls.

Defensively, Ennis might lack the size and strength to guard the larger NBA guards, but he certainly has the speed and the basketball intelligence. He led the ACC in steals, and was second in steal percentage at 3.9. Ennis was eighth in defensive win shares at 2.2. He doesn’t project as an elite defender, but should be an above average contributor.

Ennis’ game has been compared by Dick Vitale of ESPN to Jason Kidd‘s, although I don’t see him as having the same physical strength as Kidd. He’s also been compared favorably with Chris Paul. Paul is a quicker player, but Ennis has a similar ability to change directions to beat defenders and similar steal numbers for players of similar height and build. Paul was 6’0″, 175 pounds coming out, whereas Ennis is listed at 6’2″, 180 pounds. As a passer, Ennis actually has a higher assist percentage as a freshman than Paul did in his first season at Wake Forest. Defensively, Ennis sits just below Paul in steal percentage and steals per game, according to the article by Peter Bukowski at SI.com, who made the Paul comparisons.

Ennis might not become an All-Star level point guard, but he is almost certain to be a solid contributor. He offers plenty of intangibles and instincts that can’t be coached. From a character, toughness and stability standpoint, there’s not much to question. He never seems to get too high or too low, which is what you want from a floor general and potential team leader. The difficulty with teams gauging Ennis’ draft stock is that much of what he offers is in the way of intangibles. He might not wow scouts in pre-draft workouts, but watching Ennis on film, and appreciating all the subtle things he does on the court might tempt some teams to take him in the top ten. My best estimate is that he is the second point guard taken after Exum, and comes off the board in the six to ten range.

Repost Share Send via email

Hoops Rumors Originals

March 30th, 2014 at 4:54pm CST by Charlie Adams

Let’s round up the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week:

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Noah Vonleh

March 30th, 2014 at 10:32am CST by Eddie Scarito

Underclassmen are expected to dominate the lottery of the upcoming 2014 NBA draft. On Monday, Indiana freshman Noah Vonleh officially announced his intention to be one of them. This will make Vonleh the first player under Tom Crean to leave Indiana for the NBA after his freshman season. The last Hoosier to be “one-and-done” was Eric Gordon back in 2007.

Vonleh’s decision to enter the draft was widely expected. The 2013 McDonalds All-American came to Bloomington with his eyes on joining the NBA, hoping to follow in the footsteps of Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, two former Hoosiers who were selected in the top four of last year’s NBA draft. Only 18 years old and with the skills to play the three and four, Vonleh is expected to have plenty of teams interested in him leading up to the draft. In recent mock drafts, Draft Express has him being taken sixth, CBSSports.com has him fifth, HoopsHype has him going sixth, and he sits at #7 on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s “Big Board”.

Despite Indiana’s (17-15) struggles this season, Vonleh managed to shine, although he was never the focal point of the team’s offense. Vonleh was only utilized in 22% of his team’s offensive possessions. He averaged 11.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 0.6 APG, and 1.4 BPG in 26.5 minutes per game. His slash line was .523/.485/.716.

While being recruited, Vonleh was listed at 6’8” and only weighing anywhere from 210-215 pounds.  At that point, most scouts were predicting that his most probable future position would either be at small or power forward, but after just one year at Indiana, he’s put on 30 pounds. and also grown two inches.  Now, according to Draft Express, he’s 6’10” and weighs 242 pounds, and has a 7’3″ wingspan. He still projects as a power forward, but could play center for stretches against teams with smaller lineups.

One of Vonleh’s biggest strengths right now is rebounding. He averaged 9.0 RPG which led the Big 10. Thanks to his tremendous wingspan and athleticism, Vonleh is able to move out of his area to chase down a lot of balls, and he’s particularly good as an offensive rebounder. At this stage of his development many of his baskets come off of misses near the hoop.  Another aspect of Vonleh’s game scouts are in love with is his hustle.  He’s not afraid to hit the deck for a loose ball, and he’s a very unselfish and team-oriented player, which is sometimes rare for young, heralded prospects like him. He’s also known as a gym rat and responds well to coaching, both of which are required for young players to achieve their full-potential.

Vonleh also looks very promising on the defensive end. He’s not afraid to bang in the post, and he’s able to get a lot of blocks thanks to his size and hands. He also has a lot of potential as a perimeter defender because of his wingspan and quickness. Vonleh can defend about any frontcourt position effectively. His defensive win shares was 2.0, good for ninth in the Big Ten, and his defensive rating was 91.7, good for fourth in the conference.

Offensively, Vonleh is much more of a work in progress. He still needs to expand and improve his overall offensive arsenal if he wants to become an effective scorer in the NBA.  Most of his baskets right now come down near the hoop on drive-and-dish plays or off of misses, which is where his offensive rebounding skills come into play. As of now, Vonleh doesn’t have a go-to post move, but this isn’t that unusual for a player of his youth. In high school, Vonleh spent a lot of time playing on the perimeter where he dominated on straight line-drives to the hoop. He has also shown some potential with his jump shot. His form and mechanics could use some refining, but with proper coaching and effort he could become a decent jump shooter in the near future. Vonleh has shown the ability to knock down three-pointers, converting on 16 of 33 attempts. It’s his inside-outside potential that could make him an offensive threat in the league.

Vonleh has the tools to play a significant role in the NBA for many years to come, but it will likely take a few years before he can accurately be gauged as to whether or not he has the skill-level, assertiveness and offensive upside needed to develop into a star. But his size, length, and rebounding prowess, coupled with the fact that he won’t turn 19 until late August, will almost certainly mean that a team with a lottery pick will be happy to select him and wait to see how he develops in the NBA. His ceiling has been said to be comparable to Chris Bosh or possibly Al Horford. If he can approach the production of either player, whichever team drafts him will consider it a pick well spent. My best estimate is that he is off the board before Julius Randle (profiled here), and is taken in the four to six range.

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Jabari Parker

March 29th, 2014 at 3:54pm CST by Charlie Adams

Jabari Parker‘s season came to an abrupt end when Duke lost to Mercer in their opening matchup of the NCAA tournament. Despite the Blue Devils’ crushing early exit, executives around the league still see the explosive forward as a near lock to go in the top three of June’s exceptionally deep draft. DraftExpress has Parker going third in its mock draft, and he’s listed second on Chad Ford of ESPN.com’s Big Board. Certainly there’s been speculation that Parker’s might be the first named called come draft day, but the Kansas duo of Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins are generally seen as more likely candidates for the top overall selection.

While the consensus might be that he doesn’t look to have as high a ceiling as the freakishly athletic Wiggins, scouts who spoke to Ford are intrigued by Parker’s tantalizing offensive skill set and readiness to compete at the next level. He was the second-ranked recruit coming out of high school, and he didn’t disappoint in his freshman season at Duke. Parker led the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding, averaging 19.1 points and 8.7 boards per contest while shooting an impressive 47.3% from the floor in the process. His ability to score stems from his high basketball IQ and desire to put up big numbers, but he’s not a selfish player by any means. He’s just capable of getting to the basket and finds a way to the hoop often. His size and speed allow him to get around less capable defenders, and his willingness to attack the basket resulted in an average of six free throws attempted per night.

Parker isn’t going to shoot the lights out, but he’s got good mechanics and can drain jumpers from all over the floor. He was prone to hot and cold shooting streaks during his freshman season, but scouts were impressed at his ability to switch up his game and attack the paint while his shot was struggling. Still, he’s been known to put up questionable mid-range heaves and will need to be more selective if he wants his game to translate to the next level. His excellent passing skills and impressive ball handling  abilities are rare in a wing of his size and definitely contribute to his knack for getting out and making an impact in transition plays. ESPN.com lists his wingspan at 7’0″ (Insider piece).

Scouts were initially a bit alarmed when Parker’s numbers took a hit during the start of conference play, and his performance in the tournament has pundits questioning his ability to carry a team. At just 19 years old, Parker certainly has some growing up do, and he will need to get used to playing with elite competition since he struggled at times against longer, athletic opponents. Guys who can get around Parker were able to expose his less-than-stellar defensive abilities that caused Coach K to actually bench Parker in the late minutes of Duke’s loss to Mercer. It’s true that there are more athletic players in the draft class, but Parker can hold his own because of his high motor and thirst to score.

There’s been speculation throughout the season that Parker might return to school for his sophomore season, and earlier this month Parker still said he was undecided about whether or not he’d be declaring for the draft. Parker’s desire to play with Blue Devil recruit and former AAU teammate Jahlil Okafor might impact his decision, but it would be hard to pass up such a sure shot at going as a top three selection. While Parker hasn’t declared anything yet, an executive recently told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that he fully expects Parker to enter his name as an early entrant.

Parker has lived up to the hype at Duke and been able to prove he belongs in the elite prospect category. Neither Embiid nor Wiggins is as NBA-ready as Parker, and although those two figure to have greater potential, Parker is definitely more of a “sure thing.” This isn’t to say Parker doesn’t have a high ceiling himself, however, and certainly any team would consider itself lucky to land him in June’s draft. In fact, Parker would be a lock to go first overall most seasons. He can score in bunches and in a variety of ways, and while his defense is far from elite at this stage of his career, he has character and he’ll work to improve at the next level. NBADraft.net lists his pro comparison as Carmelo Anthony, which isn’t a bad level of talent to be associated with. In a class that might go down as one of the deepest groups in the history of the NBA, Parker has found a spot sitting comfortably near the top.

Repost Share Send via email

Free Agent Stock Watch: Greg Monroe

March 27th, 2014 at 4:03pm CST by Chuck Myron

Most restricted free agents as valuable as Greg Monroe is are virtual shoo-ins to return to their teams. That’s not the case with the 6’11” former Georgetown Hoya whose departure would appear to offer the Pistons the easiest way to dismantle their clumsy, super-sized frontcourt. Much hinges on just who the Pistons will have running their basketball operations this summer, with the job security of Joe Dumars in doubt. Most would probably conclude that the teaming of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith has been a failed experiment, but even if Smith and Drummond continue to be unmovable assets, for completely different reasons, it doesn’t necessarily mean Monroe is a goner.

The Pistons could sign Monroe this summer and trade him at the deadline, although his statistical decline this season suggests that his value would take a hit if Detroit continues to play him with its current set of misfit parts. His points, rebounds and assists per game — and per minute — are all down, and his PER is at a career-low 17.9. Monroe no doubt bears some responsibility for his own declining numbers, but it seems most logical to suggest that playing out of position and amid tight offensive spacing has been the primary reason behind his regression. He might not be all that enthusiastic about playing under these conditions for another year, but the Pistons wield the power to match any offer Monroe takes from another club.

Still, part of what makes Monroe such an intriguing case is the strong possibility that other clubs find him significantly more valuable than whoever will be making basketball decisions for Detroit does. Agent David Falk is averse to extensions for less than the maximum salary, and it never appeared as though the Pistons were willing to go that high. Still, Monroe is only 23 years old, and with averages of 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game with a 19.8 PER over the past three seasons, there’s plenty of reason to believe that at least one team would be willing to give him the max. That’s especially true since Monroe qualifies for a max that’s equivalent to only 25% of the salary cap, significantly less than the max salaries that more experienced players can make. The precise amount won’t be clear until after the July Moratorium, but it will likely entail a starting salary close to $14MM a year.

Falk has mastered the art of linking a client with the team that holds him in higher regard than most, having done so most recently with Roy Hibbert of the Pacers. Hibbert, who like Monroe is a former Georgetown big man, wasn’t widely considered worthy of a max deal when the Blazers agreed to sign him to an offer sheet for that amount in 2012, forcing the Pacers to quickly swoop in with an identical offer to retain him.

Five Eastern Conference teams are reportedly already planning to pursue Monroe, and one of them is probably the Wizards, who would apparently like to bring him back to the same city where he played his college ball. The Bobcats and Warriors had interest in trading for Monroe at the deadline, an idea that Detroit resisted short of an extraordinary offer. The resistance to part with Monroe in advance of his free agency indicates that Dumars and company are by no means anxious to see him go. The Pistons are hoping to re-sign him to a contract similar to the four-year, $49MM deal the Thunder gave Serge Ibaka in 2012, as TNT’s David Aldridge wrote in February. Aldridge believes the team will settle for paying the max if another club makes him such an offer, but given Detroit’s inability to find a taker for Smith, it’s not unreasonable to believe otherwise. A max deal for Monroe would require a commitment of nearly half the salary cap to two parts of a three-man unit that simply hasn’t worked.

The possibility of a sign-and-trade is in play. The Pistons could use their ability to match offers as leverage to gain assets from Monroe suitors. Dumars was on the other end of such a transaction this summer, when he acquired Brandon Jennings for three players including Brandon Knight and Khris Middleton, a pair of inexpensive young talents with upside. Detroit can’t expect to receive a player of Monroe’s caliber in this sort of swap, but the big man’s status as a restricted free agent means the club could reap assets more valuable than the ones conveyed in many sign-and-trades.

Monroe is certainly no superstar, but a young, productive interior player who stands 6’11” needn’t be a marquee name to command a max deal. His down year this season raises legitimate concerns, but I think he’ll nonetheless be able to sign a max contract in the summer. Whether it’s the Pistons or another team that winds up shelling out the money depends on just who is running the front office in Detroit. If the new GM is a confident, aggressive sort who feels like there’d be an avenue to solve the team’s frontcourt mess even with Monroe on the books for max money, the big man will stay put. If owner Tom Gores installs someone who wants to play it safe and take the path of least resistance, Monroe will be wearing a different uniform.

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile Series

March 24th, 2014 at 12:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

There’s been an inordinate amount of attention paid to the 2014 draft class dating back to last June, and the focus will only sharpen as the time for teams to make their choices draws near. Hoops Rumors will continue to be on top of it all, and one of the ways we’ll cover the potentially franchise-altering event will be to take a closer look at many of the prospects in line to hear their names called on June 26th.

Our list of Prospect Profiles will continue to be updated in the weeks ahead as we build a comprehensive inventory of reports. They can be found anytime under “Hoops Rumors Features” on the right sidebar. The players we’ve profiled so far can be found below, sorted by their ranking on the DraftExpress list of top 100 prospects for 2014.

*Includes player interview

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Aaron Gordon

March 23rd, 2014 at 8:04pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Aaron Gordon entered this season at Arizona as one of the higher profile freshman in this year’s crop. Though he slipped out of the can’t-miss prospect category early in the season, it hasn’t changed the fact that he is an intriguing athletic talent, and an almost assured lottery pick. Gordon has been referred to as a “video-game” athlete capable of making plays that nobody else can, a quality that hints at him becoming a potential future star in the NBA. He currently is ranked No. 7 on Chad Ford of ESPN.com‘s Big board, and is sitting at No. 8 in the latest mock draft by Draft Express, and No. 19 in NBA Draft.net‘s. This illustrates just how divisive his potential is amongst scouts.

Gordon, in 34 games, has averaged 12.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG in 30.9 minutes per contest, and hasn’t “wowed” scouts like many expected. He was promised to play the small forward position this season by coach Sean Miller and has spent most of his time there. The problem is that Gordon hasn’t shown he can really shoot the ball from deep effectively. His slash line is .481/.308/.435. Some NBA scouts have pegged him as one of those “dreaded tweeners.” Gordon has displayed the ability to handle the ball often and pass well, which can make him effective in the right system.

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, this 18 year-old has the height and athleticism to play power forward, but scouts question if he possesses the strength to do it successfully for long stretches, and over 82 games. Some have likened him to last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. Like Bennett, Gordon is a combo forward, which is a polite way of saying that he lacks a natural position. He doesn’t have a traditional small-forward’s body or game, and isn’t the interior power player you typically get with NBA 4s.

Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report points out that not many recent first-round combo forwards have been successful—or at least they haven’t made a positive impression early on. He cites Bennett, Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams, combo forwards who went No. 2 in their respective drafts, or even Thomas Robinson, a No. 5 pick, as examples of these types of players that have struggled to break through the barrier and find success in the NBA.

Offensively, Gordon has struggled this season. According to Matt Moore of CBSSports.com, Gordon is in the 12th percentile for jump shots, 15th percentile in post-up situations, and 13th percentile in offensive putbacks. That last category is the biggest concern, opines Moore. You can improve your jump shot and post game with hard work and coaching. But someone with Gordon’s wingspan and athleticism should be producing more points on putbacks. Much of what he seems to struggle with is how short his jumps are on both inside attempts and offensive rebounds, based on little to no power being spent from this legs, according to the article. Moore does believe that can be corrected through mechanics or building up core and leg muscle in the NBA.

Gordon is a decent spot-up shooter, as his three-point percentage in a small number of attempts indicates, but his value in pick-and-roll situations is limited to roll-only offense, opines Peter Bukowski of SI.com. He hasn’t demonstrated the shooting skill to be effective in pick-and-pop situations, the article observes. Gordon is actually a solid dribble-drive player, but teams don’t have to play him for the shot, so they can give him space while not biting on any shot fakes. When he gets into the paint though, Gordon is a beast. He can elevate and dunk over defenders, or simply lay it in, as he is a strong finisher. He has phenomenal body control that allows him to use his great length and 40-plus vertical in traffic to score. In this regard he has been compared to Blake Griffin, though he doesn’t have Griffin’s overpowering strength. It also doesn’t help Gordon’s overall production that he is a terrible free throw shooter.

He has been excellent defensively, ranking No. 2 in the Pac-12 in defensive wins shares (3.0), which estimates the number of wins a player contributes to his team due to defense. With quick feet and long arms, defense might actually carry over as a strength for Gordon, something few college combo forwards can make a claim to in the NBA, according to the article by Wasserman. Draft Express’ Mike Schmitz said of Gordon, “He gives you so many things that coaches love. I think he might be the most versatile defenders in the country. His feet are so quick. He works really hard to contest shots, he covers so much ground. He’s just a smart, intelligent kid. Defensively, he’ll be able to get on the floor right away.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller also weighed in, saying, “I’ve never had such a young player be so locked in and capable on the defensive end. While it’s hard to argue that an NBA should draft a lockdown defender so high in such a loaded draft, the thought is Gordon’s offensive skillset has only scratched the surface. He guards multiple players each game. In Aaron’s case, he plays the low post, against a post player, and then he turns around and guards perimeter players. I can say that I don’t think any that I’ve coached have been successful as a freshman doing that.”

Aaron Gordon is an intriguing NBA prospect, but is also a big risk based on not having a well-defined NBA position. He doesn’t have the offensive game yet to be a starting small forward, and isn’t strong enough to be an every-game power forward. Athletically he compares favorably with Griffin and Kenneth Faried, but lacks their strength and bulk. Gordon is still a teenager, and he has a sturdy frame, so he should be able to add muscle. But if it affects his overall athleticism, it would produce diminishing returns. He has a wealth of upside, but he’s an extremely risky top ten pick in such a deep draft. In my opinion, Gordon could benefit greatly from another year in school, but the lure of the NBA will be too tempting for him. Despite all his flaws, I still see him being taken in the 7-12 range.

Repost Share Send via email

Hoops Rumors Originals

March 23rd, 2014 at 4:19pm CST by Zachary Links

Here’s a look at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

Repost Share Send via email

Prospect Profile: Julius Randle

March 23rd, 2014 at 10:30am CST by Eddie Scarito

Julius Randle has looked like a man amongst boys during much of his first season at Kentucky. While he didn’t enter his freshman year with quite the same hype that surrounded Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker, Randle nevertheless was seen as a potential top three pick in the upcoming 2014 NBA draft. Randle has had a strong, but inconsistent season, and though he is still projected as an early lottery pick, scouts are concerned he might not have a defined position in the NBA. Randle is currently ranked No. 5 on Chad Ford of ESPN‘s Big Board, Draft Express has him being take fourth in their latest mock draft, and NBA Draft.net has him slotted in at No. 7 overall.

On a talented Kentucky team Randle was more often than not their best player on the floor. His numbers on the season were strong. In 32 games he averaged 15.1 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, and 0.8 BPG in 30.7 minutes per game. His slash line is .504/.188/.702. Good numbers, but not as dominant as some thought he would be upon entering college.

Randle’s value is as an offensive player, though his offensive game at the NCAA level is mostly considered “bully ball”. He is stronger than most of his college peers and can physically dominate them when trying to put the ball in the basket. His superior strength works against most teams, but it can also lead to forced shots and turnovers. Randle is actually coughing it up 3.2 times a game, an awfully high number for a big man. This is mainly because he tends to recklessly attack defenses by trying to plow his way through them. He uses his natural left hand and can take any contact when hit to finish, but isn’t as confident when using his right.

One of the biggest complaints against Randle’s offensive game is that he doesn’t play on the box as much as he should, and is far too perimeter oriented. He needs to focus more on refining his post game which will be what will make or break him as a pro. Randle settles for too many jumpers at times instead of imposing his will inside. He’s shown enough ability on the block however to suggest he will continue to improve his game down there. He reminds me of Derrick Coleman when he first came into the league in this regard. Randle’s jump shot isn’t ugly by any means, and looks like it should improve with time, but it just might be his biggest weakness offensively. He has no problem taking his man off the dribble when using a pump fake, but if his outside shot ever becomes a reliable weapon, Randle could become a scoring star.

Randle hasn’t made much of an impact on the defensive end, which can probably be attributed to a combination of short arms and below-average awareness. Whether Randle ever evolves into a true 4 or becomes a combo forward like Lamar Odom, defense does not project as one of his strengths at the next level. Randle may have some trouble contesting the big leapers and towering big men in the NBA. He’s not an above the rim type player, and relies on strength more than athleticism when defending. Randle averaged 0.5 SPG and 0.8 BPG, which is poor production for a big man. Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (insider subscription required) has found that block and steal rates in college are important tools when projecting big men prospects.

One major physical trait that is the most talked about as a negative regarding Randle is his wingspan. He has been called a “T-Rex” thanks to his big body and short arms. He has a 6’11” wingspan, per Draft Express, which is enormous in most contexts, but not the “super-sized world” of the NBA. When matched up against the best power forwards in the league, he’s going to have a significant length disadvantage, a problem that could impact his game on both sides of the ball. According to Jonathan Tjarks of SB Nation, in almost any basketball context, having longer arms than your opponent is helpful. Athletes with longer arms can shoot over the top of defenders more effectively. On defense, they can play a step farther back and still contest shots, and will also have an easier time reaching for rebounds and getting hands in passing lanes. The closer you get to the basket, where there is less room to maneuver, the more important this becomes.

The final verdict on Randle is that he is an extremely unique prospect due to his combination of size (6’9″ 240 pounds), strength, scoring instincts and ball-handling skills. It’s rare to find players with his skill-set, at any level of competition, which makes him an intriguing draft candidate. He has a lot of work to do, on the defensive end in particular, but he’s clearly a top-notch prospect for the NBA. His ceiling as a pro seems to compare favorably with Zach Randolph‘s, which would make him worthy of a top ten selection in the upcoming draft. His final ranking will depend on which underclassmen declare for the draft, as well as how his pre-draft workouts fare in assuaging teams worrying about his shorter wingspan. My prediction is he goes within the top five picks.

Repost Share Send via email
Load More Posts