Texas Notes: Ellis, Rockets, Mavs

Did you miss out on some of Boris Diaw‘s social media highlights from the past year?  Well, the good news is that the staff at Spurs.com compiled some of the Spurs forward’s greatest hits on Twitter and Instagram, including his flirtation with Movember.  While you flip through that, here’s a look at  more out of the Lone Star State..

  • The expectation remains that Mavericks guard Monta Ellis will opt out of the final season of his contract, Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com tweets.  However, the Mavs have yet to get word from him on his final decision.  Ellis has until June 24th to decide on his $8.72MM player option for next season. Last year, the 29-year-old averaged 18. 9 PPG and 4.1 APG in 33.7 minutes per contest.
  • The Rockets would like to sign draft-and-stash prospect Sergio Llull, but it doesn’t sound like that’s in the cards for this summer. “I’m flattered that there’s talk about me, but I’m happy in Madrid and I have a multi-year contract,” Llull told Spanish outlet Piratas del Basket (translation via HoopsHype). Kevin McHale has made no secret about his desire to coach Llull in Houston, but it’s believed that he’s less-than-thrilled about the prospect of playing a backup role.
  • Georgetown product Josh Smith auditioned for the Mavericks recently, as Mark Medina of the Daily News writes.  Within the article, Smith admitted that his effort was lacking through his first three years of college at UCLA and Georgetown but said that his senior season was indicative of the performance he’ll give at the next level.

Draft Notes: Bucks, Mudiay, Jones, Powell

There’s talk among NBA front offices that the Bucks have their sights set on a pair of shooting guards as potential targets for the 17th pick in the upcoming draft, according to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times, who identifies Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Arizona) and Rashad Vaughn (UNLV) as the two players Milwaukee will be targeting. As Woelfel points out, both members of the pair are represented by Jeff Schwartz, who works at the same agency that serves Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis, Khris Middleton and Jason Kidd. We’ve got more on the Bucks and the upcoming draft below:

  • Bobby Portis (Arkansas), Cameron Payne (Murray State), Justin Anderson (Virginia), Kevon Looney (UCLA), Jerian Grant (Notre Dame) and R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) will work out for the Bucks, Woelfel notes in the piece linked above. He also mentions that Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky have declined to work out for Milwaukee. Prevailing word around the league is that neither player will drop out of the lottery, according to Woelfel.
  • Emmanuel Mudiay is scheduled to work out for the Timberwolves in addition to the Lakers, Sixers, and Knicks, as SMU coach Larry Brown tells Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. Brown had already told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that the highly touted point guard would be putting his skills on display for the latter three of the group mentioned before. Of course, those four teams hold the top four picks in the draft.
  • Duke freshman Tyus Jones won’t be showing off for any more teams in the near future, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN hears that the national-champion point guard’s back acted up during a workout with the Rockets (Twitter link). Still, Wolfson and Woelfel both note the Mavs have interest Jones with the 21st pick.
  • The Knicks have almost “no idea” what to do with the fourth selection in the upcoming draft, a person close to the organization tells Moke Hamilton of Basketball Insiders for a mock draft piece. New York is willing to trade back, according to Hamilton, since there are teams who would potentially be interested in getting the fourth pick to nab Willie Cauley-Stein.
  • UCLA senior shooting guard Norman Powell is touting his ability to play the point and his four years of college experience as he makes the pre-draft workout rounds, as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News details. He’s already auditioned for the Bulls, Rockets, Spurs and Sixers, Medina notes.

Eddie Scarito contributed to this post.

Rockets To Pursue Sergio Llull

Kevin McHale made it clear this week that the Rockets want to sign draft-and-stash point guard Sergio Llull this summer, as the coach expressed to host Charlie Pallilo in an appearance on SportsTalk 790 in Houston (audio link), and as Max Croes of SB Nation’s The Dream Shake blog transcribes. McHale said that the Rockets “would love to bring over” the point guard who plays for Real Madrid of Spain, adding that “signing a Sergio Llull would be huge.”

Rockets GM Daryl Morey denied a report that the team was willing to give Llull a deal worth at least $17MM over three years, terms similar to what fellow draft-and-stash prospect Nikola Mirotic received from the Bulls last summer. Such a deal would be difficult for the Rockets to pull off if they elect to remain over the cap and retain Patrick Beverley and Josh Smith. Houston would like to keep both, but while the Rockets have full Bird Rights with Beverley, they only have Non-Bird rights with Smith, so it’s quite possible they’ll have to use the mid-level exception to keep him. That would remove any opportunity for the Rockets to sign Llull for more than the minimum if Houston indeed elects to operate above the cap,

Of course, it’s not a given that the Rockets won’t clear cap room, with about $55MM in guaranteed salary against a projected $67.1MM cap and Morey’s history of salary-clearing deals, as I wrote in my look at the offseason ahead for Houston. Croes suggests that Houston’s apparent desire for Llull is an ominous sign for Kostas Papanikolaou, on whom the Rockets have a team option worth nearly $4.8MM for next season. Still, even if Houston picks up that option, his salary wouldn’t be guaranteed until October 4th.

It’s unclear exactly what it would take for Houston to convince Llull to come stateside, though Llull didn’t seem too excited about the NBA when he said recently that the best place for him to win titles was with Real Madrid. David Pick of Eurobasket.com cast doubt a month ago on the idea of Llull leaving Europe, believing that the 27-year-old, who’ll turn 28 in November, wouldn’t be enthusiastic about coming over in a backup role. Llull is averaging 10.7 points, 4.3 assists and 0.9 turnovers in 25.8 minutes per game this season.

Southwest Notes: Pelicans, Mavs, Grizzlies

The Pelicans and Celtics assistant coach Darren Erman have an agreement in principle for Erman to join Alvin Gentry‘s coaching staff in New Orleans, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported overnight that the Pelicans were aggressively pursuing Erman, a detail-oriented defensive whiz who complements Gentry’s offensive acumen. The Raptors also recently made a run at Erman, sources told Wojnarowski. New Orleans is poised to hire Thunder assistant coach Robert Pack for Gentry’s staff, too, as Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times hears (Twitter link). However, Wojnarowski, whose story appeared later, writes that the Pelicans and Pack are in talks but makes no mention of a deal. Regardless, new Thunder head coach Billy Donovan is unlikely to keep Pack on his staff, Wojnarowski adds. Here’s more from around the Southwest Division:

  • San Diego State small forward Dwayne Polee worked out for the Mavericks late last month, as he tells Zach Links of Hoops Rumors (Twitter link). Michigan State’s Travis Trice, Stanford’s Chasson Randle, Dayton’s Jordan Sibert and Harvard point guard Wesley Saunders showed off for Dallas today, tweets Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops.
  • Big men highlight the Grizzlies workout scheduled for Wednesday, with Kentucky center Dakari Johnson and French center Mouhammadou Jaiteh on the docket, writes Ronald Tillery of The Commercial Appeal in a subscription-only piece. Centers Youssou Ndoye from St. Bonaventure and Charles Jackson from Tennessee Tech, Connecticut point guard Ryan Boatright and Boise State shooting guard Derrick Marks are the others in the workout, as Tillery details.
  • Florida’s Michael Frazier is auditioning for the Spurs today, Scotto reports, and the team will also get a look at North Carolina’s J.P. Tokoto, according to Pincus (Twitter links).
  • Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders adds the Rockets to the list of teams working out N.C. State shooting guard Trevor Lacey (Twitter link).

Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 2nd Round (32nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $54,629,767
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,294,572
  • Options: $4,797,664
  • Cap Holds: $22,523,182
  • Total: $83,245,185

Maybe the Rockets would be best served to have an offseason of disappointment. That’s what happened last summer, and this spring they made their first conference finals appearance since the Hakeem Olajuwon era. Of course, the Rockets probably would have been in a better position if they had signed Chris Bosh, as they thought they were about to do, or another one of the other stars they targeted. Still, it’s undeniable that Trevor Ariza, Houston’s primary acquisition from the offseason of 2014, fit in well as a replacement for Chandler Parsons, giving James Harden a stronger defensive complement on the wing. Harden took another leap on both sides of the ball, responding to widespread criticism of his defense with a career best number in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box/Plus Minus metric and a marked gain in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus figures. Midseason pickups Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni became key contributors, as did Jason Terry, whose outsized salary the Rockets accommodated via trade in exchange for a pair of sizable non-guaranteed deals that came via the Omer Asik deal.

Apr 26, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Josh Smith (5) waits for play to resume against the Dallas Mavericks in game four of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Rockets 121-109. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Terry’s contributions underscore how the Rockets really didn’t miss Asik or Jeremy Lin, both of whom Houston traded last summer to clear cap space for their failed run at a star. Coach Kevin McHale, who validated the team’s decision to extend his contract, and GM Daryl Morey spent the year making the best of an offseason that didn’t go to plan and a host of injuries that cost Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas significant time. The concern going forward is whether this season’s accomplishments are sustainable. The Rockets won 56 games when they should have won only 50, according to Basketball-Reference‘s expected win-loss stat, which is based on point differential. The Clippers could have denied them that Western Conference Finals bid if they had held on to a 19-point lead in Game 6 of their series.

Regardless, Houston seems to have faith in its supporting cast. The Rockets are “determined” to re-sign Beverley, and they’d like a new deal with Smith, too, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported. Morey told Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com that the team has interest in re-signing its other free agents, too. Certainly, the Rockets would still like a third star to go with Harden and Howard, but such a pursuit may well have to wait until 2016. The Rockets can take their cap figure down to $57,577,046 barring any sort of trade, only about $10MM shy of the projected $67.1MM cap. They’d have to create roughly another $6MM or so of cap flexibility to sign Greg Monroe, the cheapest of the star-level unrestricted free agents, and somewhere around $9MM for most of the rest of the marquee free agents. Morey has made a habit of clearing salary this time of year, and surely there would be takers for Ariza and Houston’s first-round pick if he wants to renew that tradition. Cap holds for Beverley and Smith would further eat into Houston’s flexibility, but Morey could offset those with salary-clearing trades of Jones and Motiejunas.

Indeed, there is a route by which the Rockets could sign a max free agent, give Beverley whatever’s necessary to retain him and have the flexibility to at least get in the ballpark to re-sign Smith. That said, pulling off a trifecta of deals that would send away Ariza, Jones and Motiejunas for no salary in return wouldn’t be a snap, and it would come with consequences, particularly if the Rockets come up short again in free agency. Still, Morey is canny enough that NBA observers shouldn’t rule out the possibility.

That said, it seems more likely that Morey and his staff set to work on determining the right price for Beverley and Smith, whose respective market values are among the most difficult to peg in this year’s free agent class. Beverley has a reputation as a defensive bulldog, though he’s a negative in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus and not far into positive territory in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The Rockets were 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with Beverley on the floor this season, according to NBA.com, though that number is heavily influenced by who was on the floor with him. Beverley has barely averaged 10 points per game the past two seasons and his paltry 3.4 assists per game this season were a career best. He’s a strong rebounder for his 6’1″ size, but the none of Beverley’s numbers suggest that the Rockets should pay him much more than the equivalent of the $5.464MM mid-level exception.

Still, the Rockets seem want him back, so perhaps Morey’s proprietary advanced metrics show value that other stats don’t. It’s possible that Houston’s success in the playoffs without him, as he battled in vain to return from season-ending left wrist surgery, will take him down a notch in the team’s eyes, just as postseason results may well have sweetened the team’s pot for Smith. McHale’s insertion of the oft-maligned forward into the starting lineup coincided with Houston’s comeback from a 3-1 series deficit against the Clippers, and for the playoffs as a whole, Smith had a 16.4 PER, better efficiency than he’s put up in either of his two seasons since leaving the Hawks. Some of that had to do with his 38.0% postseason three-point accuracy, an unsustainable rate based on his track record, but Smith proved nonetheless effective in his role as a supporting player instead of as a miscast star.

The Rockets don’t have the flexibility with Smith, with whom they have only Non-Bird rights, that they do with Beverley, a full Bird player. Houston can’t top $2,492,400 in a starting salary for Smith without using another exception or cap space. That’s probably less than he’s worth, though Smith is due $5.4MM from the Pistons next season, and each year through 2019/20, thanks to the stretch provision Detroit used to waive its fat contract with him in December. The next contract that the Brian Dyke and Wallace Prather client signs will defray a fraction of the Pistons’ obligation via set off, but there’s still incentive for Smith to sign for as much as he can, even if he knows he has at least $5.4MM coming. That very figure, almost equivalent to the non-taxpayer’s mid-level, seems like a fair price for Smith’s next deal, a cost that would be quite difficult, if not impossible, for the Rockets to pay if they dip beneath the salary cap to make a marquee signing. If Houston operates above the cap and re-signs Beverley, re-signing Smith at that level would take away the team’s capacity to sign anyone it doesn’t already own the rights to for more than the minimum.

Reports have indicated the Rockets have interest in signing draft-and-stash prospects Sergio Llull, Alessandro Gentile and Marko Todorovic this summer, though none are former first-rounders, and thus the Rockets wouldn’t have a rookie exception to use toward signing them. Gentile doens’t have an out in his overseas contract and Llull doesn’t seem to have much motivation to come stateside. Morey shot down the idea that Houston was planning a three-year mid-level deal for Llull. That leaves Todorovic, a 23-year-old center from Montenegro who’s said the Rockets would like to sign him. He averaged 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game for Bilbao Basket of Spain this past season. Those are decent numbers that suggest a minimum-salary offer wouldn’t cut it.

All of this makes it more likely the Rockets would seek to re-sign Terry and Brewer if they don’t open cap space. They’ll have full Bird rights on both, so they won’t face much restriction on their salaries. There’s a decent chance that Brewer, who turned down a $4.905MM player option for next season to facilitate the midseason trade that sent him to the Rockets, would want a similar amount in a new deal with Houston, but regardless, Morey will surely exercise caution with him and with Terry. The Rockets probably don’t want to court the projected $81.6MM tax line, nor will Morey be anxious to commit too much long-term money that gets in the way of a run at free agents in 2016.

K.J. McDaniels also holds intrigue as a potential restricted free agent based on the strong performance in Philadelphia that validated his decision to sign a one-year, non-guaranteed deal for the minimum salary, though he didn’t play much after the Sixers traded him to Houston. Kostas Papanikolaou hardly justified his nearly $5MM salary this season, but his uniquely designed contract that features both an option and non-guaranteed salary at least gives the team a chance to see how he develops over the summer before decision time arrives.

The Rockets face a stiff challenge to improve on this year’s performance, though they haven’t failed to make progress in any of the past three seasons. Improved health, more so than a star addition, is Houston’s likeliest path to another step toward a title next season, but the Rockets will once more loom as an outside threat to acquire any marquee name that becomes available.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Prigioni’s salary is partially guaranteed for $440,000.
2 — Papanikolaou’s salary would be non-guaranteed if the Rockets pick up his option. It would become fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through October 4th.
3 — The cap hold for Beverley would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for McDaniels would be $947,276 if the Rockets elect not to tender a qualifying offer.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

Draft Notes: O’Neale, Haws, Harvey

Royce O’Neale has seen his stock go up significantly since he began a slate of about 15 predraft workouts, a source tells Hoops Rumors. The small forward from Baylor has shown off for five teams so far, including the Spurs, Rockets and Bulls, and he’s set to work out Monday for the Clippers, the source said. The Mavs have also auditioned him, as Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops reported earlier, and as the source confirmed to Hoops Rumors. Here’s more on the draft:

Draft Notes: Anderson, Brown, Randle

Virginia’s Justin Anderson worked out with the Lakers on Thursday and afterward said he expects to be selected in the middle or toward the end of the first round based on conversations with his agent and interviews during draft workouts and the NBA pre-draft combine, Mark Medina of The Los Angeles Daily News writes. Anderson, who is ranked 23rd by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress and is pegged at No. 28 by Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required), believes he can thrive in the league with his strength, defense and ability to knock down shots, Medina adds. Johnson has also worked out with the Bulls and Spurs and plans to work out with the Celtics, Medina notes.

“I’m just going to be a complete and smart defender as well as a knockdown shooter,” Anderson said. “I’ll use my physicality and strength and be as complete as I can be. Whatever system I land, I know I can adjust.”

Here’s more news on the draft:

  • Stanford’s Anthony Brown also worked out with the Lakers, and his shooting ability could be of use to the to the Lakers, who own the second, 27th and 34th picks, Medina writes in a separate story. Brown shot 44.1% from 3-point range in two seasons at Stanford, Medina notes. The Lakers received poor shooting seasons from several players, including Nick Young, who shot a career-low 37% from the field, as Medina points out. “I’m a great shooter,” Brown said. “That’s the number one thing I hang my hat on, shooting the basketball. I’m also going to defend you. I’m a three-deep player.”
  • Stanford guard Chasson Randle‘s next workout will be with the Sixers, Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe tweets. Randle has already worked out for the Thunder and Celtics, Washburn adds.
  • Jarvis Threatt has workouts with the Wizards, Suns and Rockets next week, Adam Johnson of D-League Digest tweets.
  • BYU’s Tyler Haws wants to hear his name called on draft night, but if he doesn’t, he will have opportunities to play overseas, Jeff Call of the Deseret News writes. “He’s got a couple of offers already overseas,” said BYU coach Dave Rose, who added he expects Haws to be drafted.

Southwest Notes: Grizzlies, Beverley, Smith

Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger said he will make a push to add a player who is between 6’7″ and 6’9″ who can shoot 3-pointers in the draft, Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal writes. The Grizzlies own the 25th pick. The Grizzlies’ workout on Friday featured Tennessee’s Josh Richardson, Arkansas’ Ky Madden, Florida State’s Aaron Thomas, Notre Dame’s Pat Connaughton, Florida’s Chris Walker and Arizona’s Brandon Ashley, Tillery reports. Citing the team’s recent draft history, Tillery writes that the Grizzlies believe it’s very conceivable to find a player that is talented and ready to fill a need at that pick. Connaughton appeared to be the most intriguing player in the Grizzlies’ workout, Tillery adds, citing the 6’5″ guard’s 44-inch vertical leap, shooting ability and basketball savvy. GM Chris Wallace said that the pick has to end up being an asset.

“You’d love to have need and talent coincide,” Wallace said. “What you’re trying to do is get a player who is going to be with you for a while and help the team or someone that gains some interest around the league, and helps you make a transaction. Those are reasonable scenarios for picks in the 20s.”

Here’s more from out of the Southwest:

  • Like he has expressed previously, Patrick Beverley, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, is hopeful he will be with the Rockets next year, tweets Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston. Hopefully it’s here,” Beverley said, per Berman. “I’m very loyal. This is the only team that took a chance on me. I understand it’s a business.” Reports in April indicated the Rockets would like to re-sign Beverley, who earned  $915,243 this season.
  • Josh Smith is another free agent who has previously conveyed his desire to return to the Rockets next season, but the veteran understands how unpredictable the free agency climate can be, Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle writes. “Coming into free agency, you never know what is going to happen,” Smith said. “You just hope for the best and stay positive. Just reflect right now and don’t worry about the future.” It was reported last month there there’s mutual interest between Smith and GM Daryl Morey in a new deal.

Western Draft Notes: Towns, Grant, Jazz

Karl-Anthony Towns will interview with the Wolves and the Lakers, but won’t work out for any teams, Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv reports. The big man would relish the opportunity to play in Minnesota. “It would be a blessing and an honor to even have a chance to play for Minnesota and be able to have the chance to play for a great organization and learn from a great mentor like Kevin Garnett, Towns said.

Here’s more on the upcoming draft:

  • Jerian Grant, whom I profiled earlier today, will work out for the Raptors, Heat, Hornets, Nuggets and Wizards according to Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic. Grant previously worked out for the Pacers, SunsThunder and Rockets.
  • The Suns are looking for play-makers off their bench and Grant may be a good candidate for the No. 13 pick, Coro opines in the same piece.  “We’re looking at the guys who could possibly be backup point guards,” coach Jeff Hornacek said. “The more guys we can get on this team, whether it’s point guard, off-guard, three-man, center, forward, whatever it is — that bring intelligence to the game can only help us.” 
  • The Jazz own the No. 12 selection in the draft and Kincade Upstill of the Deseret News wonders if the team should trade its pick. Upstill examines some hypothetical trades involving the team’s first-rounder, including an intriguing swap with the Clippers that involves sending J.J. Redick to the Jazz for Trey Burke and the No. 12 pick.

Draft Notes: Holmes, Christmas, Mickey, Vaughn

Richaun Holmes, Rakeem Christmas, Jordan Mickey and Rashad Vaughn have improved their stocks considerably, as one Eastern Conference GM tells Michael Scotto of Sheridan Hoops. 

“All four have helped themselves so far during the workouts,” the anonymous GM said. “Vaughn has a chance to go in the first round. The other three are second-round picks. Although Christmas has apparently intrigued some teams at the bottom of the first round.”

Here’s more from Scotto on these prospects:

  • Holmes will work out for the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Raptors and Grizzlies as well as other teams that should bring him to roughly 15 workouts. He has already worked out for the Jazz, Spurs, Suns, Pacers and Mavericks. Holmes previously spoke with Zach Links of Hoops Rumors about how he changed his form to improve his shooting.
  • Mickey will work out for the Wolves and Spurs. He has already worked out for the Bulls, Rockets and Celtics“I like Mickey,” an Eastern Conference GM told Scotto. “He’s an NBA shot blocker and rebounder. He’s a more athletic Taj Gibson.”
  • Vaughn has already worked out for the Heat and Pacers“I really like Vaughn,” one GM told Scotto. “He’s a good shooter with range. He can get his own shot and is athletic.” 
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