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NBA GMs Vote Lakers As Offseason Winners, Title Favorites

December 18th, 2020 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s general managers liked the Lakers‘ offseason moves and are bullish on the team’s chances to repeat as champions in 2020/21, as John Schuhmann of NBA.com writes in his annual survey of the league’s GMs.

An impressive 81% of the responding general managers picked the Lakers to win the championship in 2021, which is the third-highest percentage any team has received since Schuhmann began conducting his annual GM survey 19 years ago. The Clippers ranked second at 11%, while the Nets and Heat received one vote apiece.

Meanwhile, the Lakers (37%) beat out the Suns (22%) and Thunder (15%) in the voting for best offseason roster moves. The Hawks, Bucks, and Sixers each received two votes, while the Trail Blazers got one too.

Here are a few more of the interesting responses from Schuhmann’s GM survey, which is worth checking out in full:

  • The Suns‘ acquisition of Chris Paul (44%) and the Bucks‘ trade for Jrue Holiday (33%) were voted the moves that will have the biggest impact this season. The Clippers‘ signing of Serge Ibaka (15%), the Pelicans‘ deal for Steven Adams (11%), and the Trail Blazers‘ trade for Robert Covington (11%) were the front-runners for the most underrated offseason player acquisition. Gordon Hayward‘s $120MM contract with the Hornets (54%) was voted the most surprising offseason move.
  • While NBA GMs view Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (39%) as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year over Warriors big man James Wiseman (29%), Wiseman received the most votes (36%) among this year’s rookies to be the best player in five years, followed by Ball (25%). Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton, meanwhile, was voted the biggest steal in the 2020 draft (43%).
  • Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic were the top choices as the player GMs would want to start a franchise with today. They each received 43% of the vote, with Lakers stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James and Pelicans youngster Zion Williamson also picking up votes.
  • Speaking of Williamson, he helped the Pelicans receive the nod for the team with the most promising young core (41%). The Grizzlies (22%), Hawks (11%), Celtics (11%), and Nuggets (11%) also got multiple votes.
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James Harden Rumors: Simmons, Sixers, Heat, Robinson

December 18th, 2020 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

After reporting on Thursday that the Sixers have been willing to discuss Ben Simmons in James Harden trade talks with the Rockets, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (video link) said during an appearance on the Keyshawn, JWill and Zubin Show today that Philadelphia will be “very careful” about including Simmons in any offer that doesn’t get them more than Harden.

While Wojnarowski doesn’t get into any specifics about what Philadelphia would want, it seems reasonable to assume that if they’re being asked to part with Simmons and draft picks, the 76ers would seek at least one more player from the Rockets — perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker. It doesn’t sound like Houston would be enthusiastic about that scenario though, per Wojnarowski, who says the Rockets will likely want Simmons “plus a bunch more assets” for just Harden.

“You saw (Sixers president of basketball operations) Daryl Morey come out yesterday and say, ‘We’re not trading Ben Simmons,'” Wojnarowski said. “Well, I certainly don’t think they’re trading Ben Simmons just in a deal that looks like it’s straight up with some picks for James Harden. I think they’re going to want a lot more than James Harden. That might not be a deal that’s available to the Sixers.”

The two sides could re-engage in discussions, but right now they aren’t close, according to Woj, who says he expects Simmons and Joel Embiid to open the season in Philadelphia.

Here’s more on Harden:

  • Although the Rockets are committed to finding the right deal, they’d be happy to get a Harden trade done “sooner than later,” Wojnarowski said this morning during an appearance on ESPN’s Get Up (video link).
  • Simmons is unlikely to be traded for Harden at this time, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, who cautions that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the coming months if the Simmons/Embiid duo isn’t thriving. For now though, once reports surfaced suggesting Simmons might be available, the Sixers had to publicly back their All-Star guard, Bodner writes.
  • The Heat were said to have interest in exploring a possible Harden trade and have presumably touched base with Houston. However, Ethan Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that the inclusion of Duncan Robinson in a possible offer is a “major sticking point” — in other words, the Rockets would want him and Miami wouldn’t want to give him up.
  • ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) expanded his breakdown of teams that could theoretically make a run at Harden from nine to 14, adding long shots like the Cavaliers, Bucks, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
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Sixers Open To Discussing Ben Simmons In Harden Trade Talks?

December 17th, 2020 at 6:43pm CST by Luke Adams

6:43pm: Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has responded to the reports on Simmons’ potential availability, issuing the following statement to Charania (Twitter link): “We are not trading Ben Simmons — he is an important part of our future.”

While Morey’s statement suggests there will be no traction anytime soon on a swap involving Harden and Simmons, that possibility can’t be entirely ruled out. With both ESPN and The Athletic reporting on the Sixers’ openness to discussing Simmons, there’s likely something to it, and Morey has made this sort of declaration before about a player he later traded.

5:51pm: The Sixers have “signaled a willingness” to include Ben Simmons in trade packages for James Harden, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne. Shams Charania of The Athletic is hearing the same thing, tweeting that the 76ers have made Simmons available in talks with the Rockets for Harden.

However, ESPN’s duo reports that those discussions have “come nowhere close” to a deal, and Charania conveys a similar sentiment, writing that conversations between the two teams “aren’t fluid” for the time being.

While the Rockets and 76ers haven’t gained any momentum toward an agreement, Houston is increasingly expanding trade talks beyond Harden’s preferred destinations, according to Wojnarowski and Shelburne. Sources tell ESPN that the Rockets are engaged in ongoing discussions on several fronts and have been keeping in touch with Harden about those scenarios.

A number of playoff-caliber teams in the East and West are feeling “less inhibited” about trading for Harden without any assurances that they’d be able to keep him beyond his opt-out date in 2022, according to Wojnarowski and Shelburne, who add that those teams appear increasingly comfortable discussing high-level trade assets.

For their part, the Rockets haven’t moved off their reported asking price of a young franchise cornerstone and draft picks, and are prepared to open the season with Harden on their roster, per Woj and Shelburne. However, ESPN’s duo says the Rockets are also signaling to teams that they’re willing to complete a trade sooner rather than later if the right deal arises.

A report last week indicated that the Sixers appear best positioned to acquire Harden if they’re willing to part with Simmons — that still seems to be the case, though Philadelphia and Houston would have to haggle over what else would be included in a hypothetical swap of the All-Star guards. One recent report suggested the Rockets would want three first-round picks in addition to Simmons, which seems unrealistic.

The Rockets’ interest in the Nets‘ assets is limited, sources tell ESPN, so a third team may be necessary to get the former MVP to Brooklyn.

Harden’s list of preferred destinations reportedly includes Milwaukee and Miami as well, though the Bucks aren’t believed to be interested in pursuing a deal, as Brian Windhorst of ESPN said today on his Hoop Collective podcast (hat tip to RealGM). The Heat sound more open to exploring the possibility of adding Harden, and ESPN’s report suggests that other teams may be in the mix as well.

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Southwest Notes: Harden, Rockets, K. Johnson, D. White, Mavs

December 17th, 2020 at 2:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Within his latest look at the James Harden saga in Houston, Sam Amick of The Athletic writes that the Rockets star’s “ball-dominant style, defensive reputation and personality” appear to be limiting the amount of interest on the trade market. Teams not on Harden’s reported wish list have concerns about both cost and fit, says Amick.

“Harden is a terrific scorer, but not a champion,” one front office executive told The Athletic. “He isn’t a two-way player and (he’s) hard to play with. … He is so used to getting his own way, I think there are concerns he can negatively affect a team’s culture.”

While Harden’s preferred landing spot – the Nets, Sixers, Bucks, and Heat – may be more viable destinations, rival executives are “extremely skeptical” that Houston and Brooklyn will reach a deal, and Milwaukee looks like a long shot too, according to Amick.

Philadelphia may be the most viable option, given Daryl Morey‘s strong affinity for Harden, but the 76ers are committed to giving the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid duo an opportunity to play under Doc Rivers. As for Miami, sources close to the situation are skeptical that the Heat will want to try to assimilate Harden into their culture built on “discipline and dirty work,” says Amick.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • The Rockets announced today that they plan to host fans at the Toyota Center to start the season, with a reduced capacity and healthy and safety protocols in place. The team is expected to allow between 3,000 and 3,700 in the building, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
  • Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said on Tuesday that second-year forward Keldon Johnson, who has been sidelined so far this month due to a foot injury, won’t be ready for the team’s regular season opener, but could be good to go in “a couple of weeks,” writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. Derrick White (left toe surgery) will likely be out longer than that, per Popovich. “(Johnson is) going 3-on-3 now,” Popovich said. “He has contact and he’s competing. … Derrick’s further behind (in his rehab). He’s not out on the floor competing or doing anything of that nature.”
  • The Mavericks achieved their offseason goals of improving their defense and gaining more future cap flexibility, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic, who surprisingly projects the club to finish with the second-best record in the Western Conference (47-25).
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Bucks Waive EJ Montgomery, Justin Patton

December 16th, 2020 at 8:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

EJ Montgomery and Justin Patton, who both signed with the Bucks earlier this month, have been waived, the team announced (via Twitter). Neither player saw any action in Milwaukee’s two preseason games.

Montgomery, 21, went undrafted last month out of Kentucky. He averaged 4.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in two seasons with the Wildcats.

Patton, 23, was the 16th pick in the 2017 draft, but injuries have limited him to nine total NBA games with three teams. He was also waived by the Clippers last month, shortly after being acquired from the Pistons.

The Bucks now have 18 players on their roster and have until Monday to make at least one more cut.

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Central Notes: Giannis, Porter, P. Williams, Pacers

December 16th, 2020 at 8:14pm CST by Arthur Hill

Plenty of options were waiting for Giannis Antetokounmpo if he had reached free agency, but he chose to remain loyal to Milwaukee, which has been his NBA home for the past seven years, writes Eric Woodyard of ESPN. Antetokoumpo provided an early Christmas present to Bucks fans on Tuesday when he agreed to a super-max extension that runs through the 2025/26 season.

“The way that this city has supported me and my family has been amazing since day one, since the day I walked in the Cousins Center gym and Bradley Center, also. It’s been amazing. I was 18, I’m 26 right now. All I know is Milwaukee,” Antetokounmpo said. “When I came here, all I knew is that this is a city that loves basketball, it’s a city that … We have more things to do now, but when I came here we had a lot of things to do so I could just focus on basketball and it’s a place that I want to be.”

While the Bucks had a huge advantage in the money they could offer Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP had to be convinced that he could win a championship in Milwaukee. The front office was aggressive over the offseason, trading for Jrue Holiday and signing D.J. Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, and Torrey Craig.

“I think we can get better. I believe we can be better. We’ve got better,” Antetokounmpo said. “We have a great team. We have a great culture. I know that I’m working toward that goal. The front office is working toward that goal, so I’m good. I’m happy. I think everybody’s on the same page.”

There’s more from the Central Division:

  • Cavaliers swingman Kevin Porter Jr. didn’t travel with the team to New York, which means he won’t play at all during the preseason, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. The Cavs have chosen to address Porter’s legal issues internally, Fedor adds, and are being vague in their public statements. Porter didn’t practice with the team until December 10 and may not be ready for the season opener next week.
  • The Bulls gave first-round pick Patrick Williams a start in their third preseason game, notes Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago. The decision was based partly on the team’s shortage of personnel due to injuries and COVID-19 concerns, but coach Billy Donovan also wanted to see how Williams would respond to opportunity. “It’s just more to see, like, OK, what does Patrick look like with that first group,” Donovan said. “Does Otto (Porter Jr.), you know, give us a little bit of a punch off the bench from a scoring standpoint? We’re gonna have to make some sacrifices all the way around as a team in terms of how we need to play, and then also what guys’ roles may be, just because of the uniqueness of what we’re all dealing with at this point in time.”
  • The Pacers appeared to be on track to make another front office addition, possibly a second assistant general manager, but they’ve tabled those plans for now, tweets J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star.
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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

December 16th, 2020 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.

It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.

We’ll turn today to the Central…

Milwaukee Bucks

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Bucks poll.

Indiana Pacers

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pacers poll.

Chicago Bulls

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Bulls poll.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Cavaliers poll.

Detroit Pistons

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pistons poll.

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)
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More On Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Extension, Bucks

December 16th, 2020 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

Following the Bucks‘ second-round postseason loss to Miami, reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo made a conscious decision to play a more vocal role in upgrading the team’s roster, according to a report from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Kevin Arnovitz.

During a fall lunch with Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry, GM Jon Horst, and Giannis’ agent Alex Saratsis, Antetokounmpo named a number of players whom he thought would be good offseason targets for Milwaukee, including Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, per Windhorst and Arnovitz.

Beal wasn’t available, the Bucks never got close to a deal for Oladipo, and their efforts to sign-and-trade for Bogdanovic fell through. However, Milwaukee zeroed in on another player on Giannis’ list, Jrue Holiday, believing he’d be a natural fit in the team’s lineup.

According to ESPN’s duo, the Nuggets and Celtics were aggressive in attempting to acquire a top-10 pick in last month’s draft to flip for Holiday. The Hawks were also interested in moving the No. 6 pick in a deal for the Pelicans guard, but ultimately abandoned that plan due to uncertainty over whether he’d want to remain in Atlanta beyond 2021.

The Bucks didn’t have a top-10 pick in 2020 to offer for Holiday, but were willing to put plenty of future first-rounders on the table. According to Windhorst and Arnovitz, Milwaukee initially offered Eric Bledsoe, two first-round picks, and a pick swap (plus salary filler), then “reluctantly” added George Hill to the offer. The Pelicans countered by asking for one more first-rounder and one more pick swap.

Sources tell ESPN that the Bucks’ decision-makers knew that giving up two rotation players, three first-round picks, and two pick swaps was an overpay, especially since an extension for Holiday may cost in the neighborhood of $30MM per year.

However, the club badly wanted to upgrade its roster and to send a message to Antetokounmpo and decided to pull the trigger. If that deal ultimately helped convince Giannis to sign his super-max extension, the front office presumably feels the cost was worth it.

Here’s more on the Bucks and the Antetokounmpo extension:

  • The report from ESPN’s Windhorst and Arnovitz is worth checking out in full, as it’s packed with interesting nuggets about the process of extending Antetokounmpo. According to the ESPN duo, when the Lakers acquired Dennis Schroder from Oklahoma City, Giannis wanted reassurance that Milwaukee had made a “valiant effort” to land Schroder.
  • As a trio of writers from The Athletic reported on Tuesday, Windhorst and Arnovitz confirm that the Bucks first formally made their extension pitch to Antetokounmpo on December 5. During that meeting, team ownership and management focused on the team’s commitment to building a champion, pointing to its aggressive pursuit of Holiday and its willingness to pay future luxury tax bills, per ESPN.
  • David Aldridge of The Athletic argues that the Antetokounmpo extension is good for the NBA, since it’s hard for fans in non-glamor markets to fully invest in their teams if they believe star players always have one foot out the door.
  • Joe Vardon of The Athletic throws some cold water on the news of Antetokounmpo’s extension, writing that the new deal offers the Bucks a temporary reprieve, but doesn’t guarantee the superstar forward will be with the franchise for the next five years. Jobs will be “on the line” in Milwaukee if the team doesn’t make the NBA Finals and win a title within the next couple years, says Vardon.
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Giannis Notes: Signing Process, Masai, Butler, Small Markets

December 15th, 2020 at 5:45pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Two-time Bucks MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has inked a five-year, $228.2MM super-max contract extension to stay in Milwaukee. Shams Charania, Eric Nehm, and Sam Amick of The Athletic take an in-depth look into the process that saw the star forward opt to remain with the team that drafted him in 2013.

The Bucks made a big splash early in the offseason when they traded for defensive-oriented veteran guard Jrue Holiday. After a botched Bogdan Bogdanovic sign-and-trade deal, Antetokounmpo apparently wavered on a Milwaukee return — Giannis had strived to recruit the then-Kings guard, now with the Hawks.

The star stayed in touch with the Milwaukee front office throughout the offseason before coming to a decision, even though it took longer for him to sign on the dotted line than perhaps initially anticipated.

There’s more news surrounding ripple effects of the Giannis decision:

  • Now that Antetokounmpo will be forgoing free agency for the immediate future, Raptors team president Masai Ujiri will have to get creative when it comes to team-building, per Eric Koreen of the Athletic. Using a bevy of assets towards a trade for Rockets guard James Harden or Wizards guard Bradley Beal could make sense for Toronto. Ujiri’s contract with the Raptors will expire this offseason, and Koreen wonders if the loss of Antetokounmpo as a free agent prospect could affect Ujiri’s decision to remain with the Raptors long-term.
  • With Antetokounmpo no longer be a free agent candidate for the Heat next summer, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald breaks down the next steps Miami can take as it strives for long-term title contention, as well the reaction of Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler. Rather than expressing disappointment, the ultra-competitive wing appeared excited for the opportunity to do battle with the Bucks MVP soon. “I like it,” Butler said. “I don’t think you can go around him [for a title].”
  • The new extension for Antetokounmpo is not just a victory for the Bucks, but for the NBA and all its small market clubs, Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today contends. Giannis’ decision to stay with Milwaukee long term will free up general manager Jon Horst to build a team up around him without needing to worry about a starrier squad snatching him in 2021 free agency, Zillgitt notes.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Signs Super-Max Extension With Bucks

December 15th, 2020 at 5:30pm CST by Luke Adams

5:30pm: The Bucks officially announced their new agreement with Antetokounmpo (via Twitter).

3:35pm: Antetokounmpo’s super-max extension will feature a 15% trade kicker, reports Charania (via Twitter). Since a player’s trade bonus can’t push his salary above his maximum, that’s unlikely to matter unless the cap rises significantly during the later years of Giannis’ new deal.

12:23pm: Giannis Antetokounmpo has decided to sign a five-year, super-max contract extension with the Bucks, per Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Antetokounmpo published an Instagram post announcing the news.

“This is my home, this is my city,” he wrote. “I’m blessed to be able to be a part of the Milwaukee Bucks for the next five years. Let’s make these years count. The show goes on, let’s get it.”

The deal, which will feature a starting salary worth 35% of the salary cap, projects to be worth $228.2MM over five years, making it the largest contract in NBA history, Charania notes. The exact value will depend on how much the salary cap increases for the 2021/22 season — the $228.2MM projection is based on a presumed 3% cap bump.

In that scenario, Antetokounmpo would make $39,344,970 in year one, with annual 8% raises resulting in a fifth-year salary of $51,935,362 in 2025/26. That final year will be a player option, agent Alex Saratsis tells ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Antetokounmpo’s decision to sign the Bucks’ super-max extension offer, which has been on the table since the new league year began last month, is a massive development for the franchise. Milwaukee now has the two-time MVP locked up for the next five seasons and can focus on continuing to build a championship-caliber roster around him.

The Bucks’ efforts to bolster their roster around Antetokounmpo included trading multiple future first-round picks and pick swaps last month to acquire standout guard Jrue Holiday from the Pelicans. Milwaukee also attempted to land Bogdan Bogdanovic in a sign-and-trade, but that deal ultimately fell apart, forcing the club to look elsewhere on the free agent market. The Bucks instead signed D.J. Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, and Torrey Craig to fill out their rotation.

There was some speculation that the Bucks’ failed effort to bring Bogdanovic to Milwaukee may dampen Antetokounmpo’s enthusiasm for an extension, since he was said to be high on the idea of teaming up with the Serbian swingman. However, if that was the case, it wasn’t enough to dissuade Giannis from locking in a new deal with the Bucks before the December 21 super-max deadline.

Antetokounmpo, who turned 26 last Sunday, has led the Bucks’ to the NBA’s best regular season record in each of the last two seasons, establishing new career highs in 2019/20 with 29.5 PPG and 13.6 RPG in just 30.4 MPG (63 games).

In each of those last two years, the Bucks fell short of the NBA Finals, blowing a 2-0 lead to the Raptors in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals and then losing to the Heat in the 2020 Eastern Semifinals. However, Antetokounmpo’s long-term commitment to Milwaukee signals that he still believes in the club’s ability to win a title, since he has long maintained that an ability to compete for a championship was his number one priority in deciding where he wants to play.

With Antetokounmpo no longer on track to reach free agency in 2021, a handful of teams around the NBA will have to reevaluate their plans for next summer. The Raptors, Heat, and Mavericks were among the clubs hoping to take a run at the All-NBA forward. They could still use their projected ’21 cap room to pursue a star, but they’ll have to target someone besides Giannis.

Once he makes it official with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will become the sixth player to sign a super-max contract since the NBA introduced it in 2017, joining Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall, as Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets.

Antetokounmpo will also be the ninth player to sign a contract extension since the 2020/21 league year began and the seventh to ink a max deal, joining LeBron James, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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