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How Starter Criteria Will Impact QOs For Potential 2024 RFAs

April 7th, 2024 at 4:40pm CST by Luke Adams

As we outlined in a glossary entry earlier today, the value of a qualifying offer for a player eligible for restricted free agency can increase or decrease depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency — or if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

In many cases, the difference in the qualifying offer amounts is negligible. For instance, since the Sixers will almost certainly sign Tyrese Maxey to a long-term, maximum-salary contract this summer, it doesn’t really matter that he has bumped the value of his qualifying offer a little by meeting the starter criteria.

But in other cases, the adjusted qualifying offer amount could have a real impact on how a player’s free agency plays out by making his team more or less likely to actually issue the QO — and by making the player more or less likely to accept it.

Here are the players whose projected qualifying offers will change as a result of the starter criteria this season:

Players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 who met the starter criteria:

Bey, Maxey, and Quickley would have had qualifying offers worth $6,498,258, $6,259,588, and $6,128,004, respectively, if they had fallen short of the starter criteria. Instead, their QOs will each be worth $8,486,620.

As noted above, the QO change won’t have any effect on Maxey’s free agency. It’s unlikely to affect Quickley either, since the Raptors will be looking to sign him to a multiyear deal. But it could make a difference for Bey, who tore his ACL last month to bring an up-and-down season to an early end.

A healthy Bey would probably be a safe bet to to get his qualifying offer despite a disappointing season, but ACL recoveries are lengthy processes. If Bey isn’t going to play much – or at all – next season, will the Hawks want to risk him accepting a one-year qualifying offer worth $8.5MM that would set him up to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025?

That QO decision will likely depend on whether or not the Hawks envision Bey as part of their long-term future and whether they expect to reach a multiyear agreement with him.

Second-round picks or undrafted free agents who met the starter criteria:

An experienced veteran who will turn 29 later this year, Fontecchio spent the first part of his career playing in Europe and has just two years of NBA experience, so he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer. His qualifying offer got bumped from $3,806,090 to $5,216,324 when he met the starter criteria.

Fontecchio has been a bright spot in Detroit, averaging 15.4 points per game with a .426 3PT% in 16 games as a Piston. Based on those numbers – and his solid first-half play in Utah – the Italian wing is probably in line for a salary exceeding $5.2MM, which means the QO bump shouldn’t be a difference-maker.

Top-14 picks who won’t meet the starter criteria:

As a former No. 2 overall pick, Wiseman would have been in line for a qualifying offer worth $15,815,870 if he had made at least 41 starts or played 2,000 minutes. Because he fell short, his actual QO will be worth less than half that ($7,744,600).

Wiseman hasn’t shown a whole lot in Detroit, averaging just 6.9 points and 5.0 rebounds in 16.6 minutes per game this season across 59 appearances. But the Pistons will have a ton of cap room this offseason — maybe they’d be comfortable bringing back Wiseman for one more year and trying again to unlock his full potential if the price is just $7.7MM instead of $15.8MM. I’m still skeptical he’ll get that qualifying offer, but it’ll at least be a tougher decision now.

Toppin’s qualifying offer, meanwhile, will drop from $9,170,460 to $7,744,600, but I think the Pacers would have extended it either way. The former No. 8 overall pick has had his best season in 2023/24 as a reserve in Indiana, establishing new career highs in points per game (10.1), field goal percentage (57.2%), and three-point percentage (40.3%), among other categories.

It’s worth noting that three other top-14 picks from the 2020 draft met the starter criteria this season. The qualifying offers for Bulls forward Patrick Williams and Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro will remain at $12,973,527 and $11,828,974, respectively. Those aren’t cheap, but I’d still be a little surprised if either team decides to pass on the QO.

Former Pistons guard Killian Hayes also met the starter criteria, but was later waived, so he won’t get a qualifying offer this June. If he had remained under contract and was eligible to receive one, it would have been worth $9,942,114.

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Central Notes: Green, Bulls, Ball, Mitchell, Bucks, Flynn

April 6th, 2024 at 1:10pm CST by Rory Maher

In his first game after signing a rest-of-season contract that made him eligible for the postseason, Bulls swingman Javonte Green had the best performance of his career in Friday’s victory against the Knicks, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.

The 30-year-old finished with careers highs of 25 points and 13 rebounds, shooting 10-of-14 from the floor while contributing a pair of steals and a block in 33 minutes.

“He’s one of those guys you want to have on your team,” DeMar DeRozan said of Green. “For him to bounce back in a tough year for him just trying to get back healthy and for him to be doing what he’s been doing since he came back is amazing. We all know what to expect from Woo. Every time he goes out there, he plays like he’s 6-9 and he does anything and whatever for the team. … He’s one of a kind. I’m glad to have him back.”

While Green provided a much-needed boost and a feel-good story, the win was marred due to ankle injuries to Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both left the game and were unable to return, Johnson adds. The two starters were able to walk on their own after the game and seemed to be in “good spirits,” though head coach Billy Donovan said the team would have to await further testing to learn the extent of the injuries.

Here’s more from the Central:

  • Appearing on 670 The Score (YouTube link), LaVar Ball — the father of injured Bulls guard Lonzo Ball — projected his son could start playing 5-on-5 with full contact in August or September, as Ryan Taylor of NBC Sports Chicago relays. “I’m thinking at least four or five months. Four or five months where he can really get dialed and do what he do,” LaVar said. That projection aligns with what Donovan said about Lonzo’s recovery last month, Taylor notes. Ball, who hasn’t played since January 2022, has undergone three knee surgeries over the past two-plus years, but the team is cautiously optimistic he could return next season.
  • If the Cavaliers fail to make a deep playoff run and Donovan Mitchell declines a contract extension, would they entertain the possibility of trading him this summer? Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report explores that topic, listing five potential landing spots for the All-Star guard if Cleveland goes that route.
  • The Bucks were expected to be a title contender, and they’re still (barely) clinging to the No. 2 seed in the East. However, they’ve been playing their worst basketball of the season at the absolute worst time, dropping five of their past six games, including three straight to Washington, Memphis and Toronto — three teams at the bottom of the standings — with only five regular season games remaining, per Eric Nehm of The Athletic. After Friday’s loss to the Raptors, who had dropped 15 straight games, Bucks players said they’re not panicking, but they’re frustrated, as is their head coach. “The last three were against three bad teams. To me, that’s inexcusable. For all of us,” said Doc Rivers, who is now just 15-16 with Milwaukee since taking over mid-season. “As I told them, this is on me. I gotta figure out what we gotta do to play at a higher pace.”
  • Pistons guard Malachi Flynn has averaged 5.4 points on .386/.337/.749 shooting in 208 career regular season games (14.2 MPG). He had one of the most unexpected 50-point games in NBA history on Wednesday, shooting 18-of-25 from the floor while being plus-14 in 34 minutes in an eight-point loss to Atlanta. In Friday’s loss to Memphis, the former 29th overall pick fell back to Earth, notes John Hollinger of The Athletic (Twitter link), going 0-of-12 from the field and scoring three points (all at the free throw line) while being minus-13 in 23 minutes. If Detroit issues him a qualifying offer, Flynn will be a restricted free agent this summer; otherwise, he’ll be unrestricted.
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Central Notes: Lillard, Giannis, Craig, Cade, Flynn, Mitchell

April 5th, 2024 at 3:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Damian Lillard will be back in action for the Bucks on Friday vs. Toronto after missing the last three games due to personal reasons and an adductor strain, tweets Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report and TNT. Lillard will be looking to help Milwaukee get back on track after a pair of ugly losses this week to lottery-bound teams (the Wizards and Grizzlies).

As Eric Nehm of The Athletic writes, during Wednesday’s loss to the Grizzlies, Giannis Antetokounmpo was dealing with what the Bucks are calling left hamstring tendinopathy and didn’t look like his usual explosive self en route to 21 points on 10-of-23 shooting. He’s listed as doubtful to play in Friday’s game.

Here’s more from around the Central:

  • One reason why the Bulls signed Javonte Green for the rest of the season is a belief that Torrey Craig‘s knee still isn’t 100%, even though the veteran wing hasn’t missed a game in nearly a month. “I’m not a doctor, but I do know he has stiffness,” head coach Billy Donovan said of Craig, per Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. “To me, he’s just not himself. That doesn’t mean he isn’t cleared to play. He is, and he wants to play, as well. Going back to the plantar fasciitis [from earlier in the season] and then the knee injury over All-Star break, he’s not moving the way he was before those things. He’s just not.”
  • Pistons guard Cade Cunningham hasn’t gotten any real buzz for this season’s Most Improved Player award, but does he have a case for consideration? James L. Edwards III of The Athletic explores that topic, laying out the argument for Cunningham as MIP.
  • Although it came in a loss, Malachi Flynn‘s 50-point outburst on Wednesday was a feel-good moment for a Pistons team that hasn’t had many of them and for a player who has had a tough season, writes Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (subscription required). A former first-round pick, Flynn has played for three teams in his contract year and has struggled to carve out consistent minutes for any of those clubs. “We’re all super happy for him because we all know what he’s had to go through,” Evan Fournier said. “I don’t want to say we wouldn’t give a (expletive) if it was Cade, but it wouldn’t be the same. The fact that it’s Malachi adds more to the story, I think.”
  • Following a loss to Phoenix on Wednesday, Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell spoke about the issues he’s having getting past a nagging knee ailment and his desire to have it get “1% better every day” in order to be ready to go for the playoffs. Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com has the story and the quotes from Mitchell.
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Bulls Sign Javonte Green, Waive Terry Taylor

April 4th, 2024 at 9:49am CST by Dana Gauruder

The Bulls have signed swingman Javonte Green for the remainder of the season, the team announced today in a press release.

Chicago used a hardship exception to sign Green to a 10-day contract on March 23, but needs to clear a 15-man roster spot in order to sign him to a rest-of-season deal. To make room for him, the team has waived forward Terry Taylor.

By signing a standard contract, Green is now eligible for the postseason, including the play-in tournament. Chicago is currently tied for ninth place in the Eastern Conference with Atlanta.

Green has spent parts of three seasons with Chicago. He was limited to 32 games last season due to a knee injury, which required surgery.

Green signed a training camp deal with Golden State in October, but was waived a few days later. He also appeared in 10 regular season games with the Warriors’ G League affiliate in Santa Cruz this season.

In his first 10 days with the Bulls, the 30-year-old appeared in three games, averaging 5.0 points and 3.7 rebounds in 17.0 minutes per night.

Taylor has been out of the rotation most of the season. He has appeared in 31 games but only averaged 6.1 minutes in those outings. Terry had a $2MM salary this season and a $2.2MM non-guaranteed contract for next season.

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Donovan Defends Vucevic; Bulls Clinch Play-In Spot

April 2nd, 2024 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams
  • Nikola Vucevic‘s three-point percentage has dipped noticeably in the first season of a three-year contract — his 28.6% mark is his worst since he started regularly attempting outside shots seven years ago. However, as Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times writes, Bulls head coach Billy Donovan praised the veteran center for his play this season and indicated he doesn’t believe the 33-year-old’s skills are diminishing. “He’s a consummate professional, he’s incredibly reliable, he’s durable, he’s available, which is the most important thing,” Donovan said. “I know he’s a much, much better shooter than he has shown this year. I really believe that.”
  • Despite losing to Atlanta on Monday, the Bulls clinched a spot in the Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Even if they don’t win another game, the Bulls can’t finish worse than 36-46, while the 11th-place Nets can’t do better than 35-47.
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Coby White Talks Most Improved Player Candidacy, Leadership, Development

March 31st, 2024 at 5:45pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Coby White has emerged as a top candidate for Most Improved Player honors this season. As he tells K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago, the Bulls‘ point guard feels he is just one among many legitimate contenders for the accolade.

Through 71 games this season, White is averaging a career-best 19.3 PPG on .444/.381/.839 shooting, along with a career-best 5.3 APG and 4.7 RPG.

“There are a lot of guys playing well this year,” White said. “It would mean a lot if I would get that award—just to show the work. And I always say, it would set a standard for other young guys in the league who maybe wasn’t looked at as a power right away. Like, ‘Aw, he was the seventh pick’ and not written off so much but looked at as, ‘He can’t make that leap.’ A lot of people say the leap comes from your second to third year. Mine came from my fourth to fifth year. There’s always still time. I’m only 24. Just continue to trust that work.”

Their conversation is well worth reading in full. Here are some other highlights.

On why he considers his improvement this season more meaningful than his performance in his second pro season (when he averaged 15.1 PPG and 4.8 APG):

“My second season was cool, bro. But we weren’t as competitive as we are now. I think that’s what makes a huge difference. We’re playing for something now. My second season, it was cool. I averaged whatever. But I just feel like this year . . . my second year I was just out there playing. Like, I didn’t know what the hell was going on. I was just out there hooping. This year, I know what’s going on. I know more of what I’m doing. Obviously, I still have to get better. But I feel I’ve grown as a player and person so much since that second season that this feels different.”

On how he’s evolving as a leader:

“I’m comfortable. I was talking to AC (Alex Caruso) last game. I was telling him: I found my voice last year. OK, cool. The challenge this year is with the importance I have on the team, with the role that I have, with the amount of minutes I play, how can I continue to lead on a consistent basis? In the course of a game, emotions are high. A lot of variables go into each game. You’re human. You’re obviously aware of how you’re playing in any given game.

And that’s what I was talking to AC about and he said being consistent with your voice no matter how it’s going for you was one of the hardest things he had to learn. No matter how the game is going or how I’m playing, I want to continue to consistently use my voice and bring my spirit to uplift my teammates and not do it on an inconsistent basis. I feel like I have to continue to grow there.”

On how he’s working with player development coach Ty Abbott to improve his endurance:

“He talked about me solidifying myself as a player now so going into next season, we have to sit down and figure out a way where you still feel comfortable and in a rhythm without putting too much wear and tear on your body on those off days. I’ve had to change a lot of stuff in my routine, even game-day routines. After every shootaround, I used to shoot for 30 or 40 minutes. Now it’s down to like 12 to 15 minutes. It’s been a learning process. It’s an exciting learning process. This is what you want as a player. But it has been difficult to adjust.”

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Checking In On 10-Day Contracts

March 29th, 2024 at 9:03am CST by Luke Adams

As our tracker shows, there are currently seven 10-day contracts active around the NBA, though that number will dip to three in less than 24 hours. Here are the details on those active 10-day deals:

(* Contracts marked with an asterisk were signed via a hardship exception.)

Of those seven players, only Jarreau is on his second 10-day deal with his current team, meaning he’ll be ineligible to return to the Grizzlies on another 10-day contract after this one expires.

Since he was signed using a hardship exception, the only way for Jarreau to remain with Memphis beyond Friday would be for the team to waive one of its 15 players on standard contracts to make room on the roster to sign him for the rest of the season, which likely isn’t happening.

Pereira could sign a second 10-day contract with Memphis though, and as long as they continue to qualify for a second hardship exception, I’d expect the Grizzlies to bring in a new player on a 10-day deal to replace Jarreau.

Each of the non-Grizzlies players in this group is eligible to sign a second 10-day contract with his team, and since the regular season doesn’t end until April 14, there’s more than enough days left in the season to accommodate such arrangements. That doesn’t mean that Metu, Thomas, Green, Wilson, or Simmons are locks to stick around, but they’re in good position to do so if they make a positive impression during their initial 10-day stints.

The last day to sign a standard 10-day contract this season is one week away. After April 5, teams would still be able to sign “10-day” contracts using a hardship exception, but any standard deal would be a rest-of-season or multiyear agreement.

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Central Notes: Haliburton, Turner, Strus, Green

March 28th, 2024 at 9:14pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Assuming he remains healthy, Pacers All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton is on track to appear in 69 games this season. Haliburton has noted in the past that he felt he returned a bit soon from a hamstring injury, in part because he knows he needs to appear in 65 contests in order to qualify for postseason honors, writes Joe Vardon and Sam Amick of The Athletic.

Specifically, the Indiana phenom is hoping to land on an All-NBA team, which would increase the value of his five-year, maximum-salary contract extension worth roughly $245MM. Otherwise, he’ll make $204.5MM.

“It’s no secret what’s at stake for me personally this year, and for us [as] a group,” Haliburton told Vardon and Amick. “So I feel like I’m looking to help lead this group. And if I’m playing like this and we’re still winning, I don’t care. It doesn’t bother me. I’ll get over it because obviously I’m doing enough to help us win. But when we’re not winning and I’m doing this, then that’s when it can really get to me.”

There’s more out of the Central Division:

  • Haliburton and Pacers center Myles Turner seem to have unlocked an elite pick-and-roll chemistry, writes Mark Medina of Sportskeeda. “They understand the attention that they bring to themselves,” power forward Obi Toppin said of the fearsome twosome’s tandem attack. “They understand the attention that they bring to themselves. They allow other people to play on the ball to get them open. That helps them tremendously.”
  • Cavaliers shooting guard Max Strus is back from a knee injury, but a playoff-bound Cleveland club is struggling down the home stretch of the regular season, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. To wit, the Cavaliers recently dropped a game to a banged-up, lottery-bound Hornets squad on Wednesday, 118-111. “We just didn’t play hard,” Strus said. “Nobody wanted to play defense tonight. That was our problem. Can’t lose to teams like this at this point in the season. Is what it is. Gotta take it on the chin and hopefully get back at it on Friday.” He scored 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting from the floor, which included 5-of-10 shooting from deep. He also chipped in four rebounds and two steals.
  • In a 125-99 blowout win over the Pacers on Wednesday, Bulls wing Javonte Green saw his first game action since rejoining Chicago on a 10-day deal. Players and fans alike seemed happy he was back in Bulls red, notes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. Green was tasked during his initial nine-minute stint with defending the much taller Indiana power forward Pascal Siakam, but he did his best to pester the two-time All-Star. The 6’4″ vet, who finished the night with a game-high +26 mark in 19 minutes, got an ovation from the United Center faithful when he first was subbed into the contest. “It means a lot,” Green said. “Especially coming from this city, the city that really gave me an opportunity to showcase my talent during the game.”
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DeRozan Fuming After Loss To Wizards

March 26th, 2024 at 8:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder
  • The Bulls lost by two points to Washington on Monday. DeMar DeRozan was angry that his team didn’t take advantage of a matchup against a depleted team playing out the string, according to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. “All these games matter. You want to be playing good basketball towards this part of the season,” DeRozan said. “I’m pretty sure I’m going to be pissed off until we get back out on the court. We shouldn’t drop games like this right now. We’re resilient. But we can’t live on the edge every game. We gotta leave it out there these last 10 games. We can’t have no more excuses. We gotta play like your life depends on it.”
  • Bulls forward Dalen Terry has been working on his three-point shot since being drafted in the first round in 2022. However, it hasn’t shown on the court. He’s shooting 24.1% from deep this season. “I definitely believe it’s going to be a real big offseason for me, just taking care of my shot,” Terry told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times.
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