Hoops Rumors Originals

Weekly Mailbag: 10/30/17 – 11/5/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think the superb performance of Victor Oladipo makes the trade for Paul George seem not so bad and lopsided after all? — Greg Dizon

Not only has Oladipo been a surprise, so has Domantas Sabonis, which has quickly changed the public perception of the deal. It seemed like the Pacers were trying to get anything of value for a departing star when they shipped George to Oklahoma City, but they appear to have landed two promising additions to a young foundation. Oladipo is an early candidate for Most Improved Player, ranking 10th in the scoring race at 24.6 points per game. Sabonis filled in nicely at center while Myles Turner was recovering from a concussion, averaging a double-double with 13.2 points and 10.6 points per night. Give the Pacers’ new management team credit for this one. They were able to make the best of a difficult situation.

The Miami Heat have pieces, all sorts of them. They seem to have the sort of depth that is better suited for a trade than for merely holding onto. What, if any, type of move do you see Pat Riley making? — Rion Golden

Riley has a philosophy of chasing “the big fish,” so there probably won’t be a significant move until one of those becomes available. Eric Bledsoe doesn’t seem like a big enough name, and Jahlil Okafor certainly isn’t, so expect Riley to hold onto his assets until he can pursue someone he really wants, like possibly DeMarcus Cousins if things don’t go well in New Orleans. Miami is far over the cap for next season and doesn’t have any draft picks next summer, so trades are the only way for the Heat to improve quickly. Riley will go after someone, but he will be patient.

I agree he shouldn’t be on the top 20 list [of available free agents for 2018], but will Dante Exum garner much free agency interest? He has lost two years, but is a tall, athletic point guard. — Jimmy Robinson, via Twitter

Because of injuries, we never really found out how good Exum can be. He played a full season for Utah as a rookie in 2014/15, but has only appeared in 66 games since then. He has good size for a point guard at 6’6″, but only averages 2.1 assists per game and is a poor shooter [.385 from the field and .308 from 3-point range]. Plus he’s coming off his second major injury, a separated left shoulder that required season-surgery. Exum should get an opportunity somewhere next season, but he may have to accept a minimum-salary deal and start proving that he can play in the NBA.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 10/28/17 – 11/4/17

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

NBA G League Affiliate Players For 2017/18

Throughout the offseason and preseason, NBA teams are permitted to carry 20 players, but that total must be cut down to 15 (plus two two-way players) in advance of opening night. However, up to four players waived by teams prior to the season can be designated as “affiliate players” and assigned to their G League squads.

The players have a say in this decision — if they’d prefer to sign with a team overseas, or if they get an opportunity with another NBA club, they’re under no obligation to become affiliate players. Most NBA and international teams have fairly set rosters by late October though, so having the opportunity to continue playing in the same system appeals to many of those preseason cuts. Especially since they’ll continue to be NBA free agents while they play in the G League.

There are a few other rules related to G League affiliate players. A player whose returning rights are held by a G League team can’t be an affiliate player for another club, which is why undrafted free agents from the current year are commonly signed and assigned.

Additionally, an affiliate player must have signed with his team during the current league year, which explains why we often see players signed and quickly waived in the days leading up to the regular season. And, of course, not every NBA team has a G League affiliate, so there are four teams with no place to send affiliate players.

With all that in mind, here are the NBA G League affiliate players to start the 2017/18 season, per the league’s official site:

Agua Caliente Clippers of Ontario (Clippers)

Austin Spurs (Spurs)

Canton Charge (Cavaliers)

Delaware 87ers (Sixers)

Read more

Fantasy Hoops: Simmons, Dunn, Irving

Jonathon Simmons took an unconventional path to the NBA, grinding through the G League before landing a deal with the Spurs. Simmons enjoyed success in San Antonio, thriving as both a complementary piece and as a top dog when stepping up for the team during Kawhi Leonard‘s absence in last season’s playoffs.Jonathon Simmons vertical

The fit and versatility led many to believe the at-the-time restricted free agent would be part of the organization’s long-term future. However, the Spurs surprisingly allowed Simmons to become an unrestricted free agent and the Texas native inked a three year, $20MM deal with Orlando.

The Magic are one of the league’s top early-season surprises, powered by a change in offensive strategy and a Simmons-led second-unit. The team ranks third in the league in pace, adding nearly six possessions per game over their 2016/17 totals, and Simmons’ slice of the offense has made him a fantasy darling.

He’s a contributor in many categories, scoring 15.8 points per game while shooting 52.4% from the field. He’s chipping in 3.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and nearly a steal per contest. He owns the highest usage rate among those in the team’s rotation and coach Frank Vogel’s confidence in him suggests his role is not in question.

“He has earned the trust. You know, when we put the ball in his hands, typically, he makes good things happen,” Vogel said of the team’s top offseason signee.

Simmons is owned in 34% of ESPN leagues, a figure that should be much higher. Check your waiver wire and scoop him up if your league-mates have been neglecting this fantasy asset.

Here’s more fantasy notes and analysis from around the league:

  • While the Jimmy Butler trade initially appeared to be a lopsided transaction, Kris Dunn‘s progress will go a long way toward overturning that notion. Dunn sat out the Bulls‘ first four games with an injured finger, but he showed promised over Chicago’s last two outings, accumulating a total of 19 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists over 52 minutes of action. The starting point guard spot in the Windy City is up for grabs and Dunn’s potential to take the reins makes him worthy of a speculative add.
  • Dennis Smith Jrhas the talent to compete for the Rookie of the Year award, as I detailed in a piece for NBAMath, but he’s not cutting it from a fantasy standpoint. The Mavericks point guard scoring just 12.3 points per game on 39.8% shooting and savvy owners should take advantage of his hype by dealing him for a more useful fantasy player.
  • Considering Kyrie Irving in daily fantasy against the Thunder tonight? Look for another option. OKC has suffocated opposing point guards this season, allowing the second-fewest points and the fifth-lowest field goal percentage to opposing floor generals. The team also ranks fourth in turnovers forced and sits in the bottom third in rebounds and assists allowed to the position. Irving’s stats at the end of the night will look fine, but they likely won’t be worth his high price point in daily.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings 2.0

We’re still nearly eight months away from the start of the NBA’s 2018 free agent period, but next year’s free agent class has taken a significant hit within the last month or so.

Since we published our initial 2018 free agent power rankings in mid-September, several top free-agents-to-be have signed contract extensions, with Russell Westbrook, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Gary Harris among the players coming off the board. All four of those guys were in our top 10 last time around.

As such, the newest installment of our free agent power rankings for 2018 will look a little different, and not just because the players who inked extensions are no longer on our list. Early-season performances and injuries will play a role in our rankings, and we’re making a couple extra players eligible for the list this time around.

One is Nikola Jokic, who has a $1.6MM team option for 2018/19. We typically don’t include players with team options or non-guaranteed salaries in our free agent rankings, since their teams are expected to just pick up those options, keeping them off the free agent market. But in the Nuggets’ case, it actually might make sense to turn down Jokic’s option — if they do that, he’ll be a restricted free agent. If they exercise the option, Jokic would be eligible for unrestricted free agency the following year.

The other newly-eligible player on our list is Robert Covington, who technically doesn’t show up yet on our 2018 free agents list. We avoid moving players with non-guaranteed 2017/18 salaries to subsequent free agent lists until their salaries become guaranteed. In Covington’s case though, that’s a mere formality. He’ll become a free agent in ’18 unless the Sixers extend him before then.

As usual, our list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2018 free agent market, rather than how we think they’ll perform on the court for the 2017/18 season. For instance, an older player like J.J. Redick has solid short-term value, but didn’t make our top 20 because he’s unlikely to sign a huge multiyear deal next summer. In other words, age and long-term value is important.

Without further ado, here’s the second edition of our 2018 free agent power rankings:DeMarcus Cousins vertical

  1. LeBron James, F, Cavaliers, (player option)
  2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors (player option)
  3. Paul George, F, Thunder (player option)
  4. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets (team option; RFA)
  5. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Pelicans

Although his team is struggling to start the season, James remains a dominant force. Yet he has looked mortal in recent weeks, slowed in the preseason by an ankle injury and unable to will the Cavaliers to wins against opponents they should beat. The door is open for Durant to take over the No. 1 spot at some point during the season, though the distinction between the top two shouldn’t matter much.

Meanwhile, Cousins is off to a monster start in New Orleans, and while I still think George’s two-way ability and Jokic’s age make them slightly more valuable assets, Cousins may force my hand and make me bump him into the top three if he keeps playing like this (30.1 PPG, 13.0 RPG).

  1. Chris Paul, G, Rockets
  2. Aaron Gordon, F, Magic (RFA)
  3. DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers (player option)
  4. Jabari Parker, F, Bucks (RFA)
  5. Avery Bradley, G, Pistons

Paul slips out of the top five this time around, and is in danger of falling further as the season progresses. If CP3 continues to battle injuries and doesn’t adjust to the Rockets’ pace and style of play as well as the team hopes, it’s hard to imagine him getting a long-term, maximum salary contract next summer at age 33.

I may be overreacting to Gordon’s hot start, but he’s finally locked in at the power forward spot and has looked tremendous so far for Orlando, averaging 20.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG with a .561/.577/.739 shooting line. The former fourth overall pick is only 22 years old, and if he becomes a reliable three-point threat this season, he’s going to be in line for a massive payday in 2018.

Parker’s placement in this list is tricky — the fact that Andrew Wiggins signed a max extension buoyed my confidence in Parker getting a huge contract of his own in July, but that will hinge on him coming back strong from his ACL injury. For now, I’m betting on that happening.

  1. Robert Covington, F, SixersRobert Covington vertical
  2. Clint Capela, C, Rockets (RFA)
  3. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Trail Blazers (RFA)
  4. Zach LaVine, G, Bulls (RFA)
  5. Isaiah Thomas, G, Cavaliers

Covington and Capela are somewhat overlooked on their respective clubs, perhaps dismissed as merely “role players.” But they’re terrific role players. Already a reliable defender, Covington has improved his three-point efficiency in the early going this season, making an impressive 3.4 threes per game at a 48.2% rate. He likely won’t keep up that pace, but three-and-D specialists do very well in free agency and he’s set to get a big raise.

As for Capela, his game isn’t as well-rounded as you might like, and it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be the sort of player who can average 30+ minutes per game. So far in 2017/18 though, the 23-year-old is averaging a double-double (13.3 PPG and 11.4 RPG), providing rim protection (1.6 BPG), and practically never missing a shot (.707 FG%).

Nurkic, LaVine, and Thomas all have the potential to jump into the top 10 by season’s end, but LaVine and Thomas will have to get back on the court and show that they’re fully healthy first. As for Nurkic, he has been plagued by injury issues throughout his career, but his main problem at the moment is that the Blazers have been a much more effective scoring and rebounding team with him off the court this season. Nurkic’s stock will improve as those numbers do.

  1. Danny Green, G/F, Spurs (player option)
  2. Elfrid Payton, G, Magic (RFA)
  3. Rodney Hood, G, Jazz (RFA)
  4. Carmelo Anthony, F, Thunder (player option)
  5. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, G, Lakers

Like Covington, Green is playing the three-and-D role to perfection this year. After being named to the All-NBA Defensive Second Team last season, Green is knocking down a career-best 43.8% of his three-point attempts in 2017/18. He’ll be 31 next July though, limiting his long-term earning potential.

Payton and Hood beat out the 33-year-old Anthony here due to their youth and their upside, but Carmelo may provide the better return on investment for the next year or two.

As for Caldwell-Pope, he remains a confounding player to evaluate. After an impressive sophomore season in 2014/15, he showed few signs of improving his production during his ages 22 and 23 seasons in Detroit, and his age-24 season in L.A. has been no different to date. KCP is young enough that a breakout could still be coming, but for the time being, it may be hard to justify a substantial long-term investment in him.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Early-Season Surprises

The NBA season is just over two weeks old, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t already been a few surprises. From the Magic’s success to the “Greek Freak’s” utter dominance to Ben Simmons‘ channeling of Magic Johnson, there has been no shortage of eyebrow-raising moments in the early going.

  • Frank Vogel has the Magic playing well above what anyone expected. ESPN’s preseason power rankings slotted Orlando at 24. To his credit, Vogel has strayed from the physical, grinding style that defined his best Pacers teams in favor of a fast-paced attack predicated on ball movement and good floor spacing. Perhaps that explains Aaron Gordon‘s newfound accuracy from long-range – in his first three NBA seasons, Gordon never cracked 30% from three-point range. This season, he’s hitting over 57% from deep. It is a guarantee that Gordon will regress, but will the same be true of the Magic?
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo was a star last season, averaging about 23 points, nine rebounds, and five assists per contest. But his performance through eight games this season has made those numbers look pedestrian. The “Greek Freak” is leading the league in scoring at 31.3 PPG, pulling down 10.6 RPG and handing out 5.1 APG. His superior athleticism is evident, but his efficiency – he is shooting 60% from the floor – is deadly. If these early season numbers hold, he’s a near lock to earn MVP honors.
  • Ben Simmons missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury. The No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, Simmons obviously had the talent to project greatness, but a year off from basketball can build up rust on even the greatest athlete (see: Jordan, Michael). This makes Simmons’ dominance through eight games a surprise. He is stuffing the stat sheet at 18.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG and 7.9 APG. Lonzo Ball garners a lot of attention for basketball and non-basketball reasons, but Simmons is the one with the dominant game reminiscent of Magic Johnson in style and stature.

We want to know what you think. Which early-season player or team performances have surprised and impressed you? Which are likely to last and which are a flash-in-the-pan? Please share your thoughts in the space below.

2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings

Throughout the 2017/18 NBA season, Hoops Rumors will be maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2018 draft order will look like. Our 2017/18 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, will be updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings take into account playoff teams in each conference, so they’re essentially a reflection of what 2018’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. In addition to not considering the results of the lottery, our tracker lists teams in random order when they have identical records. At the end of the year, those ties would be broken via random drawings.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For instance, the note next to Miami’s pick says that the Heat will send their pick to the Suns if it’s not in the top seven. As of today, Miami is tied for the NBA’s eighth-worst record, meaning that pick would head to Phoenix.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2018. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

Community Shootaround: Rookie Of The Year Eligibility

Ben Simmons entered this season as the odds-on favorite to be named Rookie of the Year, and he hasn’t disappointed.

The Sixers guard has been outstanding over the first two weeks of the season, averaging 18.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game. He’s a tough matchup for opposing point guards at 6’10”, he’s versatile enough to defend multiple positions and he has a shooting touch that is better than advertised. But is he really a rookie?

Simmons was the first player picked in the 2016 draft as a highly touted prospect out of LSU, but he missed all of last season after suffering a Jones fracture in his right foot during training camp. Although he didn’t play his first game until this season, Simmons had the advantage of learning the game in an NBA environment for an entire year.

Joel Embiid, Simmons’ teammate, was third in last year’s Rookie of the Year voting. His stats of 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per night dwarfed those of the top two finishers, but he only appeared in 31 games, which disqualified him in the eyes of many voters. Like Simmons, Embiid was technically a rookie, but he was in his third season since being drafted.

Clippers forward Blake Griffin is the only player to win the Rookie of the Year trophy after sitting out a season with an injury. Griffin suffered a broken left kneecap during the 2009 preseason and didn’t make his official debut until the following year.

Another aspect to this discussion is international players, such as Clippers guard Milos Teodosic, who is classified as a rookie even though he is 30 years old and has more than a decade of international experience. Is it fair for players in the prime of their careers to be competing with kids just out of college, many of whom are still in their teens?

We want to know what you think. Should the Rookie of the Year race be open to all first-year players, or does the NBA need to make a distinction for players who sat out with injuries or spent time overseas? Please share your thoughts in the space below.

Explaining The Celtics’ Disabled Player Exception

As a result of Gordon Hayward‘s ankle injury, the Celtics were granted a disabled player exception by the NBA last week. Disabled player exceptions aren’t used with nearly the same frequency as other salary cap exceptions, such as the mid-level or bi-annual, and the rules surrounding DPEs are a little more complicated than they are for most other exceptions.Gordon Hayward vertical

With that in mind, we’re here to answer a few questions related to disabled player exceptions. We’ll be taking a closer look at the Celtics’ DPE specifically, in the hopes of clearing up any misconceptions about it and explaining exactly what Boston can and can’t do with the new exception. Let’s dive in…

Why did the Celtics receive a disabled player exception?

A team can apply for a disabled player exception when it has an injured player who is expected to miss the entire season. If an NBA-designated physician determines that the injured player is more likely than not to be sidelined through the following June 15, the league will grant the team a DPE.

In this instance, Hayward is considered likely to miss the rest of the 2017/18 season and to be out through June 15, so the Celtics were given a disabled player exception to replace him.

So the Celtics get an extra roster spot?

No. A disabled player exception is about cap flexibility rather than roster flexibility. The Celtics are still limited to 15 players on NBA contracts, but they’re allowed to spend an extra $8.4MM to add a replacement for Hayward. If not for that exception, the over-the-cap C’s would be limited to offering a minimum salary contract to a free agent.

Why is the Celtics’ DPE worth $8.4MM?

A disabled player exception is worth 50% of the injured player’s salary or the amount of the full mid-level exception, whichever is less.

For instance, last season, when Justise Winslow sustained a season-ending shoulder injury, the Heat applied for and were granted a disabled player exception. However, because Winslow was only earning $2.6MM, the exception was worth 50% of his salary — $1.3MM. As a result, Miami couldn’t do much with that DPE.

Hayward, on the other hand, is earning $29.7MM in the first year of his maximum salary contract with the Celtics. Half of his salary would be nearly $15MM, but the value of a disabled player exception can’t exceed the mid-level exception. This year, the full MLE is worth $8.406MM, so that’s also the value of Boston’s DPE.

Are there any free agents left worth $8MM?

Probably not. There are a few interesting names on the list of available free agents, but Boston could probably sign just about any of them for a minimum salary contract.

Still, if the Celtics are willing to be patient, it’s possible their DPE could come in handy for a free agent addition later in the season. Each year, a few potential impact players are bought out after the trade deadline, and Boston’s ability to offer up to $8.4MM to one of those players could be valuable.

Additionally, the disabled player exception doesn’t need to be used on a free agent — it can also be used to acquire a player in a trade. The player must be in the final year of his contract, but as long as he’s earning $8.506MM or less (the DPE allows for a $100K buffer in trades), the Celtics wouldn’t have to send out any salary in a trade.

So a disabled player exception functions like a combo mid-level/traded player exception?

Sort of. It can be used to sign a free agent, like the mid-level exception, or to acquire a player in a trade, like a traded player exception. Also, like MLEs and TPEs, it can’t be combined with another exception or a player’s salary to increase its value. Still, there are a few differences that set the DPE apart.

For one, the disabled player exception can only be used once. Mid-level and trade exceptions can be used to acquire multiple players, but if the Celtics decide to use their DPE to trade for a player earning $3.4MM, they wouldn’t still have $5MM left to use on someone else. The DPE would be gone.

Additionally, because the disabled player exception is intended to be a short-term solution to replace an injured player, a team can’t use it to add a player for multiple seasons. If it’s used to sign a free agent, he has to sign a one-year deal. If it’s used to acquire a player via a trade, he has to have just one year left on his contract (or one year plus an option, if the option is declined as part of the deal).

If the DPE is designed to help a team replace its injured player, what happens if Hayward comes back this season?

If Hayward makes a miraculous recovery and returns to the court in April, with the Celtics having already used their DPE to add another player, that’s great news for the team — Boston would be able to activate Hayward without the replacement player being affected.

Hayward’s injury has already been deemed season-ending by the NBA. If it hadn’t been, the Celtics’ application for the disabled player exception wouldn’t have been approved. If his diagnosis changes later, that’s not a problem.

The only scenario in which a Hayward return would compromise the Celtics’ ability to use the DPE is if he gets back on the court before the team has used the DPE and before it expires. Then they’d lose it.

And when does it expire?

March 10. If the Celtics haven’t used it by that point, they lose it.

That date applies to all disabled player exceptions — teams have until January 15 to apply for a DPE, and until March 10 to use it.

So which players might the Celtics target with their DPE?

It’s probably still too early to come up with a comprehensive list. The Celtics have adjusted well since losing Hayward and aren’t in immediate need of reinforcements. They can afford to wait until closer to the trade deadline (February 8) – or even after the deadline, if they have their eye on a buyout candidate – to determine which player would be the best fit.

As the season progresses, more and more teams will fall out of contention and more players will land on the trade block. Additionally, the Celtics will have more time to assess which position is their greatest area of need.

Still, there are at least a handful of trade candidates already out there. Jahlil Okafor is the most popular name now that the Sixers have turned down his 2018/19 option. Young big men on rebuilding teams, such as Nerlens Noel and Alex Len, would be intriguing possibilities, though they have the ability to veto trades and would lose their Bird rights if dealt. If the Celtics are eyeing a wing, veterans like Corey Brewer and Vince Carter meet the necessary criteria.

Again though, it probably makes sense for the C’s to wait and see how the season plays out. Many players – including a few listed above – aren’t yet trade-eligible, and most teams aren’t looking to deal quite yet anyway.

Have more DPE questions that aren’t answered above? Ask away in the comment section below.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eight 2018/19 Rookie Scale Options Not Exercised

October 31 represented the deadline for teams to exercise their rookie scale team options for the 2018/19 season, and the majority of those options were picked up, as expected.

Although making option decisions a year early can be challenging, rookie scale salaries are affordable enough that most of those decisions are no-brainers, assuming the player is part of his club’s rotation. Of the 2018/19 rookie scale options, the most expensive one was Karl-Anthony Towns‘ fourth-year option, which will count for $7,839,435 against the Timberwolves‘ cap. That’s less than the value of the mid-level exception, and most are much cheaper than that.

Still, not every rookie scale option is a great investment. For clubs looking to reduce future tax bills or create some additional cap flexibility going forward, it may make sense to turn down an option for a former first-round pick who has underwhelmed in his first couple NBA seasons.

This year, eight available rookie scale options weren’t exercised, with Jahlil Okafor and Mario Hezonja – a pair of top-five picks in 2015 – heading the group of players who will now become unrestricted free agents next summer.

Here’s the full list of those players whose options weren’t picked up:

For the full list of the players whose rookie scale options for 2018/19 were exercised, be sure to check out our tracker.