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Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Series

April 23rd, 2024 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

After the NBA playoffs tipped off on Saturday with a handful of one-sided contests, things got a little more interesting on Sunday and Monday, with the Thunder, Knicks, and Nuggets among the teams to pull out victories in games that went down to the wire.

All three days of the playoffs so far, however, have had one thing in common: The home team has won. The road teams have an 0-11 record entering Tuesday’s action.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the home teams are controlling the eight series so far. Those clubs are the higher seeds, and home-court advantage is often a difference-maker in the postseason.

Still, it’s somewhat rare for the higher seeds to be quite this dominant to open the playoffs, especially when we saw so much parity during the regular season. The No. 2 and No. 8 seeds in the East finished the season just four games apart, while only two games separated the No. 4 to No. 7 teams in the West.

The lower seeds are going to start picking up some wins at some point, especially in Game 3s when they get to play on their respective home courts. But will any of them actually make it out of the first round?

Currently, BetOnline.ag lists all the lower seeds as series underdogs, giving the Mavericks (+140) the best chance to erase its 1-0 deficit and win the series. Those odds aren’t surprising — Dallas finished the season strong, was only a game behind the Clippers in the standings, and seems unlikely to face a fully healthy Kawhi Leonard in the first round.

The Suns (+150) and Pacers (+195) are also viewed as viable candidates to pull off upsets over Minnesota and Milwaukee, respectively. On the other hand, despite only being down 1-0 in their series, the Pelicans (+660) and Heat (+5000!) are massive underdogs vs. the Thunder and Celtics.

Of the teams who have to climb out of a 2-0 hole, BetOnline.ag views the Sixers (+380) as the strongest candidates for a comeback, followed by the Magic (+640) and Lakers (+870).

We want to know what you think. Will any of the eight lower seeds make it out of the first round? If so, which ones do you expect to see in round two?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Heat Notes: Butler, Jovic, Jaquez, Wright, Adebayo

April 22nd, 2024 at 12:03pm CST by Luke Adams

As they look to bounce back after a Game 1 loss in Boston, the Heat can’t count on Jimmy Butler to return at some point later in the first round to give them a boost. While the team hasn’t provided any sort of official timetable on Butler’s recovery from an MCL sprain, Shams Charania of The Athletic said on FanDuel’s Run it Back show (Twitter video link) that the star swingman is going to remain on the shelf for a while.

“It’s crazy to me that Jimmy Butler played three quarters with what I’m hearing now was a severe MCL sprain,” Charania said. “He is not going to be back in this series. This is a rehab that’s go at least one month — could be two months of rehab.

“… Thankfully for him it wasn’t the ACL, it wasn’t a meniscus. But even if the Heat were to advance (beyond) this first round, somehow, his postseason availability is still very much up in the air.”

Here’s more on the Heat:

Although Miami suffered a resounding loss in Game 1 on Sunday, there were at least a couple silver linings, as Anthony Chiang writes in a pair of stories for The Miami Herald. The team’s last two first-round picks – Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez – made the first playoff starts of their respective careers and ultimately held their own despite some shaky moments in the first quarter. Additionally, buyout market addition Delon Wright came up big off the bench, scoring 17 points and making all five of his three-point attempts. Wright figures to play a regular role in the series with Terry Rozier (neck) sidelined.
The odds are against the Heat repeating last spring’s success and making another deep playoff run, but even in the event of a first-round exit, the team should be well positioned for the offseason, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Appearing on NBA Countdown (YouTube link), Wojnarowski said he expects a lot of action on the trade market this summer and pointed out that Miami is almost among the preferred destinations for disgruntled stars. That didn’t do the Heat much good in the Damian Lillard talks last summer, but the team should have more leverage with trade targets who have fewer years left on their contracts, Woj adds.
William Guillory of The Athletic takes a look at how Bam Adebayo became Udonis Haslem‘s successor as a pillar of “Heat Culture” and how the big man plans to uphold that ethos for years to come.

Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic Named MVP Finalists

April 21st, 2024 at 6:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nuggets center Nikola Jokic were revealed on Sunday as the finalists for the Most Valuable Player award, according to the NBA (Twitter link).

Doncic led the league in scoring (33.9 points per game) and finished second in assists (9.8) while also grabbing 9.2 rebounds per contest. Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to the top seed in the Western Conference by averaging 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 2.0 steals per contest. Jokic, who is widely considered the favorite to win his third MVP trophy, averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists per night.

The NBA also announced the finalists for six other postseason awards. Here are the finalists for all of those awards:

Most Valuable Player

Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Sixth Man

Malik Monk, Kings
Bobby Portis Jr., Bucks
Naz Reid, Timberwolves

Defensive Player of the Year

Bam Adebayo, Heat
Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Most Improved Player

Tyrese Maxey, Sixers
Alperen Sengun, Rockets
Coby White, Bulls

Note: Sengun appeared in just 63 games but was eligible for award consideration based on the season-ending injury exception described in our glossary entry on the 65-game rule.

Coach of the Year

Mark Daigneault, Thunder
Chris Finch, Timberwolves
Jamahl Mosley, Magic

Rookie of the Year

Chet Holmgren, Thunder
Brandon Miller, Hornets
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Clutch Player of the Year

Stephen Curry, Warriors
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Heat Notes: First-Round Series, Robinson, Rozier, Draft, Lillard

April 21st, 2024 at 10:57am CST by Arthur Hill

If the Heat have any advantage heading into their first-round series with the Celtics, it comes from being more battle-tested, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. While Miami was fighting its way through a pair of high-stakes play-in games this week, Boston was resting up and preparing for its playoff opener. Chiang notes that the Celtics wrapped up the top seed in the East weeks ago, and their regulars haven’t played at all since April 11. Meanwhile, the Heat maintained their intensity through a late-season battle for seeding.

“I love this position, honestly,” Tyler Herro said. “A lot of people didn’t think we were going to win [Friday against the Bulls] and that’s part of it. I feel like we’re better when our backs are against the wall anyways. So we’re going to go to Boston and come up with a game plan with the coaching staff to stop one of the better teams, pretty much ever really, on paper.”

With Jimmy Butler sidelined by an MCL injury and Terry Rozier still out with neck spasms, the Heat are missing two key components from an offense that ranked 21st in the league and often struggled to produce points. Miami’s best chance to duplicate last year’s surprising playoff run is to start by being physical with the Celtics, who led the NBA in offensive efficiency.

“Naturally with some of our firepower out and some guys banged up, it’s going to be an uphill battle,” Kevin Love said. “But different guys are just going to have to step up. You saw it last year with guys going down. But we just have to continue to weather the storm and understand we’re going to be in for a big fight.”

There’s more on the Heat:

Duncan Robinson, who has been dealing with back issues, has been cleared to play in today’s series opener, tweets Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel, who posted a video of Robinson testing out his back while shooting this morning. Robinson logged 12 minutes and scored eight points in Friday’s win over Chicago.
The official diagnosis hasn’t changed for Rozier, Winderman adds (Twitter link), with coach Erik Spoelstra telling reporters, “We’ll continue to treat him day-to-day.” An earlier report described Rozier’s injury as week-to-week.
The play-in results have Miami locked into the 15th pick in this year’s draft, Chiang states in a separate story. The Heat won’t be permitted to trade their selection before the June 26 draft because they owe a lottery-protected first-rounder to Oklahoma City in 2025. It will be Miami’s highest draft choice in five years, and Chiang lists Purdue center Zach Edey, Duke center Kyle Filipowski, Providence guard Devin Carter, Colorado forward Tristan da Silva and Duke guard Jared McCain as players who might be available in that range.
After trying to trade for Damian Lillard for most of last summer, the Heat could renew that pursuit this offseason if the veteran guard decides he wants out of Milwaukee, Winderman notes in another piece. Winderman expects team president Pat Riley to go star hunting again, listing Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Pascal Siakam among a large group of potential targets.

Celtics Notes: Heat Rivalry, Brown, Porzingis, Kornet, Hauser

April 20th, 2024 at 8:52pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Celtics got a very familiar playoff opponent when the Heat defeated Chicago Friday night, writes Khari Thompson of The Boston Globe. The teams have faced each other in three of the past four Eastern Conference finals, with Miami winning last year and in 2020 and Boston prevailing in 2022. With all the history between the two organizations, Jaylen Brown believed another meeting was inevitable.

“I knew it was going to be Miami. I knew it from a few weeks back,” Brown said. “Just coming from last year to this year, it just makes sense, so we’re looking forward to it. It should be a great challenge. Miami is a tough team, well coached, they play hard, and they’re physical. All the things that we need to emphasize. So it should be fun.”

Kristaps Porzingis, who was acquired in a trade last summer, is looking forward to his first experience with the Celtics-Heat rivalry, Thompson adds. Boston won all three regular season matchups, but Porzingis understands that Miami is dangerous because of how its players approach the play0ffs.

“We have to expect them to be ultra-aggressive,” he said. “Ultra-handsy and trying to do all the little dirty things they can. Not dirty things, but to mess up the game a little bit to get some advantages. And, yeah, we have to be ready for that. It’s going to be a war.”

There’s more from Boston:

Luke Kornet will miss Sunday’s opener with a strained right calf, according to Souichi Terada of MassLive. The backup big man has been part of the rotation, but Terada notes that the Celtics have other options due to a midseason trade for Xavier Tillman and the recent conversion of Neemias Queta‘s two-way contract. No explanation was provided for when or how Kornet was injured.
With Sam Hauser developing into a dangerous three-point weapon off the Celtics’ bench, Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe looks back at the night the sharpshooter decided to join the organization. Moments after the 2021 draft ended, Hauser got two-way contract offers from the Celtics and Timberwolves, along with an opportunity to join the Heat’s Summer League team and compete for a two-way deal. All three teams wanted an answer right away so they could pursue other players if they didn’t land Hauser. “When I got off the phone, my dad was like, ‘Well, why don’t you just sleep on it?’” Hauser said. “And I told him, ‘We’ve got 10 minutes.’ So we all just kind of sat down and talked about the options and came to the conclusion that Boston was probably the best spot for me.”
Jared Weiss and Jay King of The Athletic talked to scouts and coaches about the best strategies for countering the Celtics’ defense.

Terry Rozier Week-To-Week With Neck Injury

April 20th, 2024 at 10:30am CST by Tristan Tucker

While Terry Rozier‘s neck injury is improving, he’s not healthy enough to return yet, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (Twitter link). Rozier is considered week-to-week, with Jackson emphasizing that the injury is not considered career-threatening.

Rozier has missed the past six games for the Heat in addition to the fourth quarter of a crucial regular season game between Miami and Indiana. He later said he felt he hurt his team by trying to push through the injury.

The Heat traded for Rozier at the 2023/24 deadline in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first-round pick, and he averaged 16.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game for the team.

It seemed he was getting comfortable in Miami prior to the injury, averaging 23.6 PPG, 3.2 APG and 1.6 SPG while shooting 57.1% on his 9.8 three-point attempts in the five games before the Indiana matchup.

It’s another setback for an injury-plagued Miami team that is already without Jimmy Butler and Josh Richardson. While Rozier could still return in the first round, it’s a downgrade in designation from his previous day-to-day status. It seems as though Rozier will miss at least the first couple games of the series against his former team.

Given that Jackson felt the need to specify that Rozier’s injury isn’t career threatening, it may be a more serious injury than previously thought, so the Heat appear to be taking a cautious approach.

Injury Notes: Caruso, Bulls, Bucks, Embiid, Hartenstein

April 19th, 2024 at 5:36pm CST by Rory Maher

Bulls defensive ace Alex Caruso will be available for tonight’s play-in tournament game in Miami, head coach Billy Donovan said (Twitter link via K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago).

Guard Ayo Dosunmu (quad) and center Andre Drummond (ankle) will be active too, Donovan added. All three players had previously been listed as questionable.

Caruso was said to have sustained a “significant” left ankle sprain in Wednesday’s play-in victory over Atlanta, but the swelling subsided over the past couple days and he told reporters on Friday morning he expected to suit up. The injury was an aggravation of a previous sprain.

Duncan Robinson, who has been battling a back issue, will be available tonight for the Heat, tweets Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. Robinson was technically active for Wednesday’s loss to Philadelphia, Chiang notes, but he didn’t see any action — that might change with Jimmy Butler sidelined due to a knee sprain.

Here are a few more injury-related notes from around the NBA:

Bucks guard Damian Lillard was a full practice participant on Friday, but two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (left calf strain) was unable to do any live drills, according to a report from ESPN. Reserve guard A.J. Green, who sat out Tuesday’s practice with a left ankle sprain, was able to go through most of Friday’s practice. There have been mixed messages from Milwaukee on Antetokounmpo’s status, with president Peter Feigin saying he”definitely will not be back for Sunday,” when the Bucks will host the Pacers in Game 1 of their first-round series. Head coach Doc Rivers is still holding out hope that the perennial All-NBA First Team member will be ready though, per ESPN. “I don’t know yet,” Rivers said. “We’re still hoping. He hasn’t done anything. Would we throw him out there? Yeah, we would. For us, still we’re not sure.”
Speaking of Lillard, the Bucks‘ All-Star said he aggravated his Achilles tendon in Sunday’s loss to Orlando, but his adductor has been giving him the most trouble, as Eric Nehm of The Athletic relays (Twitter links). Lillard missed four games over the past few weeks with various injury designations, but he said the week off has helped him recover.
Sixers center Joel Embiid is officially questionable for Saturday’s Game 1 in New York with what the team is calling left knee injury recovery, tweets Fred Katz of The Athletic. Embiid, who missed a few months after tearing his meniscus in January, has been considered questionable for nearly every game since he returned to action at the beginning of April.
Since January 20, Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein has only played 30-plus minutes five times due to Achilles soreness. However, two of those instances came in his last two regular season games, and he said he’s ready for an increased workload in the postseason, according to Katz (Twitter link).

Poll: Who Will Win Friday’s Play-In Games?

April 19th, 2024 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

If the Heat and Pelicans were fully healthy entering Friday’s play-in games, they’d likely be considered solid home favorites. Instead, both teams will be without their leading scorers, with Jimmy Butler sidelined for Miami due to an MCL sprain and Zion Williamson on the shelf for New Orleans as a result of a hamstring strain.

The injuries to Butler and Williamson don’t necessarily mean that the Heat and Pelicans won’t win and advance on Friday, but they’ve created a sense that anything could happen in either one of the remaining play-in games.

The Heat are still considered two-point favorites over the Bulls, per BetOnline.ag, which makes sense — Miami got used to playing without Butler this season, going 13-9 in games he missed, and Chicago has plenty of injury issues of its own. Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams are among a handful of Bulls players who are out for the season, while Alex Caruso‘s availability is up in the air due to an ankle injury.

Of course, Butler isn’t the only notable Heat player who will miss Friday’s game. Josh Richardson is out for the season following shoulder surgery and Terry Rozier continues to be affected by a neck injury.

The Heat/Bulls outcome will come down to which team’s healthy players step up in a win-or-go-home situation. Chicago’s starters did just that on Wednesday, with Coby White scoring a career-high 42 points while DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Ayo Dosunmu combined for another 65. If Caruso can’t go, the Bulls will have to lean more heavily on reserves ike Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig, and Javonte Green for defensive purposes to complement those offensive weapons.

The Heat, meanwhile, will be looking for more from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Adebayo had just 10 points in Wednesday’s loss to Philadelphia, and while Herro had 25 points and nine assists, he also missed 18 shots from the floor and turned the ball over five times.

In New Orleans, Williamson is the only player on the injury report, but he’s not the team’s only injury-related concern. Brandon Ingram has been back in action for just two games following a multi-week absence due to a knee injury and hasn’t looked 100% since returning — he didn’t play the final 7:38 of Tuesday’s loss to the Lakers.

The Pelicans have a deep roster featuring a plethora of talented two-way contributors, and they went 5-0 vs. the Kings this season, including a win last Thursday. But if Williamson is out and Ingram is hampered, it could be an uphill battle for New Orleans against a feisty Sacramento team that is currently a 1.5-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

While Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are the stars and both played well on Tuesday vs. Golden State, the Kings are extra dangerous when they’re getting major contributions from players like Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, and Keon Ellis, who combined to score 64 points against the Warriors. Ellis was especially active on defense, racking up three blocks and three steals — Sacramento was +27 during his 39 minutes.

We want to know what you think. Will the Heat and Pelicans hang on at home and give their injured stars a chance to try to make it back before the end of round one? Or will we see a pair of road teams pull off victories on Friday and claim the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your predictions for Friday’s games!

Injury Notes: Giannis, Butler, Bulls, Pelicans/Kings

April 19th, 2024 at 7:20am CST by Luke Adams

After Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Tuesday that the Bucks are preparing to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo for the start of their first round series against Indiana, Shams Charania of The Athletic confirmed on Thursday on Stadium’s Playoff Preview show (Twitter video link) that the star forward’s status “is still in doubt” for the series.

“He has been rehabbing daily with that strained calf, getting treatment,” Charania said. “He has had even some stationary workouts on the court, but he is doubtful to start the series. I’m told this injury could be anywhere from two to four weeks, potentially. We know his superhuman ability, but that clearly puts his status for this series in jeopardy.

“The Bucks (and) Giannis have to have some level of caution in being careful with this calf injury. Already this season, Giannis has had Achilles tendinitis, a hamstring injury as well, and now this calf strain. The last thing (they) would want is for him to get back, rush on the floor with a calf injury, not being 100% and then potentially tweaking that or leading to even worse injuries.”

Crucially, Charania didn’t clarify whether or not the two-to-four-week timeline he cited applies retroactively — Antetokounmpo has been sidelined since April 9 as a result of the injury, so he has already been out for 10 days. Assuming the projected recovery timeline described by Charania began on the date of the injury, the two-time MVP still has a chance to play at some point in round one.

Here are a few more injury-related updates from around the NBA:

Jimmy Butler‘s agent Bernie Lee took exception with Thursday’s reports that his client would miss several weeks as a result of his knee injury, suggesting that they were premature, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald relays (via Twitter). “We’re going to see the doctor later today,” Lee said on Thursday afternoon, “and it just blows my mind that somebody that wasn’t in the arena has somehow come up with a medical timeline of something that literally four of us, one is the person that got hurt, and me, the person that has conversations with everything, that everything gets filtered through. We don’t even know and now we’re having to live in someone else’s created reality of you know something that I didn’t know.” The Heat subsequently confirmed that Butler had sustained an MCL sprain, though the team didn’t offer any sort of timeline beyond ruling him out for Friday’s play-in game. MCL sprains are typically multi-week injuries.
Bulls role players Alex Caruso (left ankle sprain), Ayo Dosunmu (right quad contusion), and Andre Drummond (left ankle sprain) have all been listed as questionable for Friday’s play-in game vs. Miami. Dosunmu and Drummond, who were also both listed as questionable for Tuesday’s contest, seem like relatively safe bets to play, while Caruso is expected to be a game-time decision.
There are no surprises on the Pelicans/Kings injury report for Friday, though the absences on each side are notable. Zion Williamson (left hamstring strain) is the only New Orleans player sidelined, while Sacramento is missing Malik Monk (right knee sprain) and Kevin Huerter (left shoulder surgery).

Southeast Notes: Hawks, Miller, Heat, Wizards

April 18th, 2024 at 7:45pm CST by Tristan Tucker

The Hawks fell to the Bulls in the play-in, failing to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020 as a result. With a roster that doesn’t fit together even when healthy, Atlanta could look to go in a number of different directions this offseason. The Hawks are stuck in the middle, lacking incentive to tank due to the first-round picks they owe the Spurs as a result of acquiring Dejounte Murray and also having several talented players on the roster.

As The Athletic’s John Hollinger observes, attention will likely turn to star guard Trae Young after trade talks involving Murray didn’t pan out at the deadline this year. Speculation regarding Young’s future continues to run rampant, and teams like the Lakers and Spurs are some of the most frequently named potential destinations.

Additionally, the Hawks will have significant money tied up in the frontcourt to both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, prompting Hollinger to wonder whether the team will look to trade one. Atlanta’s most significant impending free agent is Saddiq Bey, who is set to be restricted this summer, but he’ll be recovering from an ACL tear.

Both Hollinger and ESPN’s Bobby Marks assert the Hawks need to pick a lane by making a significant move of some kind, whether that’s moving Young or Murray. Armed with a young core that includes extension-eligible Jalen Johnson, Kobe Bufkin, Okongwu and AJ Griffin, along with potentially two top-16 picks (if Sacramento makes the playoffs), Atlanta has the assets necessary to retool rather than fully rebuild if they so choose.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

Hornets rookie Brandon Miller had a terrific first season and while he won’t win the Rookie of the Year award (that honor will almost certainly go Victor Wembanyama), he cemented himself as a franchise cornerstone in just one year, Alex Zietlow of The Charlotte Observer writes. In 74 games, Miller averaged 17.3 points while shooting 44.0% from the field and 37.3% from three. “He can be whatever he wants to be,” teammate Seth Curry said. “I see All-NBA, perennial All-Star, possible MVP consideration in his future. All the talent, all the size, the competitive nature. I think he’s going to work on his game and add stuff every year. So I’m excited to see him grow.“
The Heat are in the same position on Friday that they were a season ago. They hosted the Bulls in a win-or-go-home play-in tournament game for the eighth seed last season and will do so again this year, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. From Miami’s perspective, the win over Chicago jump-started a historic run that saw the Heat become the first No. 8 seed in a non-lockout season to reach the NBA Finals. However, the Bulls remember last year in a much more painful view, which could be a motivating factor against a Heat team without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier. “I remember that plane ride back home [last year] vividly, everybody was just frustrated,” Bulls guard DeMar DeRozan said.
Wizards general manager Will Dawkins and president Michael Winger admitted that year one of Washington’s rebuild featured growing pains, but they saw some positive steps within the organization, The Athletic’s Josh Robbins writes. Young players like Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly all showed progress from the beginning to the end of the season. “We feel very strongly that we have the right fans, that we have the right principles, that we have the right market to build a sustainably great team,” Winger said. “We set out to do that a year ago. That plan has not changed at all.“
The Washington Post’s Ava Wallace tackles a similar topic, noting that the Wizards‘ regime is excited to dig into its first full offseason. As Wallace writes, the most significant move the team will make this season could be its head coaching hire.