Northwest Notes: Durant, Westbrook, Dixon
Free agency won’t be the only item on Kevin Durant‘s summer schedule, writes Marc Stein of ESPN.com. The former MVP plans to be part of the U.S. Olympic team and may be the biggest name on a roster that has already lost Stephen Curry, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Stein reports that Durant is considered a sure thing for the team, along with Klay Thompson and Paul George. They will join DeMarcus Cousins, whose participation was first reported by Marc Spears of The Undefeated. Kyrie Irving is considered almost certain to join the team, while officials are waiting to hear from LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. The full 12-man roster is expected to be announced soon.
There’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Westbrook is making a smart decision to skip the Summer Games, contends Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman. With Rio de Janeiro beset by a financial crisis, reports of drug-resistant super bacteria on the beaches and possibly the Zika virus present, Tramel believes that presents too many risks for NBA players.
- At age 38, Nazr Mohammed has probably played his last NBA game, according to Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman. Mohammed signed with the Thunder in March, but appeared in just five games and served mostly as a mentor to younger players, in particular giving defensive tips to Enes Kanter. Mohammed said he won’t try to play again next season and would like to someday become a GM. “That’s my five-year, 10-year plan,” he said. “To one day run my own organization.”
- Mike Dixon Jr. has received a passport from the nation of Georgia and will participate in the Blazers‘ free agent camp Monday, reports Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. Dixon was a senior at Memphis in 2014 and played in the Czech Republic this season.
- The Nuggets are facing an unpredictable draft with three picks in the first round, writes Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. Dempsey lists shooting, shot blocking and toughness as Denver’s top needs and speculates that a significant roster shakeup could happen by draft night.
Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder
Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.
State Of The Franchise
The Thunder’s season ended in disappointment, as a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference Finals gave way to three straight Golden State wins and a barrage of Klay Thompson three-pointers. Still, it’s unfair to consider Oklahoma City’s season a disappointment on the whole.
Before being bounced from the playoffs by the Warriors, the Thunder earned the No. 3 seed behind two historically great teams that averaged 70 regular-season wins apiece. Oklahoma City ultimately dispatched one of those two teams – the Spurs – from the postseason before very nearly eliminating the other. If a couple more breaks had gone the Thunder’s way, we could very well be discussing their postseason run as one of the greatest of all time, rather than looking back and wondering how they failed to finish off Golden State.
It’s possible that the Thunder’s 2016 playoff run represented the last time we’ll see this group together, but it would be a bit of a shock if that were the case, as we’ll outline below.
Priority No. 1 (and No. 2 and No. 3): Re-Sign KD
With apologies to LeBron James, whose potential free agency hasn’t generated the same sort of discussion that it has in years past, no free-agent-to-be has been the subject of more speculation and rumors than Kevin Durant. It’s the first time Durant will be eligible for free agency, and there’s an expectation that he’ll be open to hearing pitches from potential suitors.
It remains to be seen exactly how open Durant will be — will only one or two teams besides the Thunder get an audience with the former MVP, or will he be willing to give every interested club a shot? The latter approach could certainly prolong his decision, since it’s possible that 15 or 20 teams will have interest in making a play for Durant, and most clubs will have the cap space necessary to land him.
Ultimately though, there are two key factors that should push Durant back to Oklahoma City after he tests the open market. For one, there simply aren’t many teams around the NBA that are as championship-ready as the Thunder. Only the Spurs and Warriors, both of whom are believed to be eyeing Durant, could make a convincing case that adding KD would make them the prohibitive favorite for the 2017 title, and Durant may not want to simply jump ship to one of the Thunder’s biggest rivals.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, no team can offer the kind of money to Durant that Oklahoma City can. Whether the 27-year-old wants to sign a long-term contract right away or a year from now – when that max contract will likely be worth significantly more, as we’ve previously outlined – it makes the most sense for him to re-up with Thunder, who can offer more years and higher raises than any rival suitor.
Those factors don’t make OKC a lock to re-sign Durant — anything can happen in free agency. But barring a drastic turn of events, the Thunder will head into July as the frontrunners in the KD sweepstakes.
The Other Free Agents
Durant isn’t the Thunder’s only free agent, but he’s clearly the most important one, and his decision will have a trickle-down effect on all the other moves the team makes this offseason. If Durant elects to sign elsewhere, Oklahoma City will have a major hole to fill in its frontcourt, and would have the cap room necessary to add an impact player. But if we’re assuming Durant returns, the Thunder will likely turn their attention to filling out their roster with complementary pieces, and that could mean re-signing Dion Waiters, who is eligible for restricted free agency.
Waiters, acquired in a trade a year and a half ago, isn’t an ideal bench piece for the Thunder. His shooting percentage has been below 40% since he arrived in Oklahoma City, and his PER slipped to single digits in 2015/16. With Durant and Russell Westbrook rarely both on the bench at the same time, Waiters’ ability to create his own shot and score points for the second unit isn’t as valuable as it otherwise might have been, and OKC might be better off with a pure shooter in that spot instead.
However, if Durant re-signs, the Thunder will be right up against the salary cap threshold. Even parting ways with Anthony Morrow – who has a non-guaranteed salary – wouldn’t create much more room under the cap than an over-the-cap OKC squad would have with the mid-level exception at its disposal. So even though allowing Waiters to depart in free agency would free up a roster spot, it wouldn’t necessarily free up any more spending flexibility for the Thunder. That may be why GM Sam Presti has indicated he’s optimistic about bringing back both Waiters and Morrow.
Randy Foye and Nazr Mohammed are unrestricted free agents for the Thunder, but I don’t expect either player to re-sign, unless it’s for the minimum. Mohammed may be headed for retirement, while Foye set new career-lows in FG% and 3PT% in 2015/16.
Looking To The Future
One important consideration for Durant as he decides on his next contract will be the Thunder’s plan for the future. Two years after the former second overall pick agreed to his first contract extension with Oklahoma City, the team sent James Harden to Houston, so Durant will want to know if any such moves are on the horizon this time around.
Durant surely recognizes that the current roster is getting expensive, with several of his teammates eligible for free agency a year from now, so he’ll want to know how the Thunder intend to address the cap crunch. Even with the cap on the rise, retaining Durant, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, and Andre Roberson for the long-term probably isn’t tenable.
The Thunder are unlikely to make any moves related to Westbrook or Ibaka this offseason, but Adams and Roberson will both be extension-eligible for the first time, so the club will have to determine whether it makes sense to lock up either player before they hit restricted free agency. Both Adams and Roberson have emerged as crucial cogs in the Thunder’s rotation, with Adams providing rebounding, rim protection, and toughness, while Roberson is an excellent defender whose three-point shooting has improved.
Of the two players, Adams is expected to be the Thunder’s top priority, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be extended this year. The team will be able to match any rival offer for the big man next summer, so it could be prudent to wait to see what happens at that point with Westbrook and Ibaka, rather than prematurely locking in a big new deal for Adams.
Filling Out The Roster
The Thunder haven’t been very active in free agency in recent years, preferring to build their roster by drafting and making trades, then re-signing their own players. The team usually only has the mid-level exception at its disposal, so that inactivity isn’t surprising. Still, if there was ever a year to use that full MLE to add one more player to the roster, this might be the year.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder made just 55 three-pointers to Golden State’s 90, and shot only 32.2% on their three-point attempts, compared to 39.6% for the Warriors. It’s probably unfair to expect OKC to match up with the greatest three-point shooting team of all time in that department, but players like Morrow and Foye, brought in to fill that role, were mostly non-existent in the Conference Finals. Using the mid-level exception to pursue a free agent like Jared Dudley or Courtney Lee, who could more reliably make those open shots created by Durant and Westbrook, seems logical.
If the MLE isn’t enough to attract a free agent of that caliber, given the rising salary cap, the Thunder could also explore the trade route. Former first-round picks like Mitch McGary and Josh Huestis aren’t part of OKC’s rotation, having spent a good chunk of last season in the D-League, and could be packaged with Kyle Singler and/or draft picks in a trade. Of course, it wasn’t long ago that Singler looked like a possible solution to the Thunder’s three-point woes, so perhaps the team prefers to hang onto him in hopes of a bounce-back season. The club may also still envision McGary and Huestis as inexpensive rotation players for the future.
Final Take
Durant’s decision will dictate what sort of summer it is in Oklahoma City. If he returns, this team remains a championship contender, even without any other real changes. If he bolts, Presti will have some challenging decisions to make, particularly with Westbrook set to enter the last year of his contract.
Guaranteed Salary
- Russell Westbrook ($17,769,374)
- Enes Kanter ($17,145,838)
- Serge Ibaka ($12,250,000)
- Kyle Singler ($4,837,500)
- Nick Collison ($3,750,000)
- Steven Adams ($3,140,517)
- Andre Roberson ($2,183,072)
- Cameron Payne ($2,112,480)
- Mitch McGary ($1,526,040)
- Josh Huestis ($1,191,480)
- Total: $65,906,301
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Anthony Morrow ($3,488,000)
Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)
- Dion Waiters ($6,777,589/$12,846,075)
Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)
- Kevin Durant ($25,894,800)1
- Randy Foye ($5,956,500)
- Nazr Mohammed ($980,431)
- Total: $32,831,731
Other Cap Holds
- Derek Fisher ($980,431)
Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000
Footnotes:
- The cap hold for Durant will be the maximum salary for a veteran of 7-9 seasons. The number shown here is an estimate based on the projected cap figure.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What $94MM Cap Means For OKC, Durant
- With the NBA increasing its salary cap projection for 2016/17 to $94MM, Erik Horne of The Oklahoman explores what that would mean for the Thunder and Kevin Durant.
Andre Roberson Extension-Eligible After Breakout Season
- As Erik Horne of The Oklahoman details, Andre Roberson enjoyed a breakout season in 2015/16, and is becoming a reliable two-way wing just in time for the opening of his contract extension window. If the Thunder don’t sign Roberson to an extension this year, he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.
James Farr To Work Out For Thunder
Northwest Notes: Jazz, Vivant Arena, Nuggets
Tyrell Corbin, son of former Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin, was among the participants in Utah’s free agent mini-camp this week, writes Jody Genessy of The Deseret News. It’s the fourth year for the camp, which GM Dennis Lindsey brought to the Jazz after experiencing similar sessions when he worked for the Spurs and Rockets. Thirteen players from the last three free agent mini-camps have either landed spots on an NBA roster or earned invitations to training camp. “It’s a chance for them to play in front of an NBA coaching staff and for us to get a look at them,” said Jazz director of pro player personnel David Friedman. “Last year, we had a kid by the name of Jonathon Simmons [in camp] just to give you an idea. He didn’t end up with us, but he ended up with the Spurs.”
The camp has an extra dimension this year because Utah has its own D-League team and will be looking for players to fill the roster. Along with Corbin, other prominent names at this week’s event included Preston Medlin, Spencer Butterfield, Dionte Christmas and Julian Mavunga. Greg Stiemsma, who has played for four NBA teams, was also in attendance, along with Argentinian prospect Nicolas Brussino.
There’s more news from the Northwest Division:
- The Jazz hosted a workout this morning, Genessy notes in the same piece. Attending were LSU’s Tim Quarterman, California-Santa Barbara’s Michael Bryson, Memphis’ Shaq Goodwin, Texas’ Isaiah Taylor, Oral Roberts’ Obi Emegano and French prospect Mathias Lessort.
- Utah is planning a $125MM renovation project at Vivant Arena, Genessy writes in a separate story. Larry H. Miller Sports & Entertainment will cover $102.3MM, and the franchise is hoping for $22.7MM from Salt Lake City’s Redevelopment Agency. The Jazz will submit their proposal to the agency this week.
- Washington’s Dejounte Murray will have a private workout with the Nuggets Monday afternoon, the team announced in a press release. The 6’5″ point guard has been rising on draft boards and is listed ninth on the latest list of 100 best prospects compiled by ESPN’s Chad Ford. Denver will hold a Monday morning workout for Bryson, Joe De Ciman of Colorado State, Patrick McCaw of Nevada-Las Vegas, Egidijus Mockevicius of Evansville, Abdel Nader of Iowa State and Chinanu Onuaku of Louisville.
- Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin is joining the effort to keep Kevin Durant with the Thunder, according to The Tulsa World. She is willing to offer the free agent forward a government job to get him to stay with Oklahoma City. “Oklahoma loves Kevin Durant and Kevin Durant loves Oklahoma,” Fallin said. “But if he’ll stay, I’ll make him a Cabinet person for health and fitness.”
Thunder Notes: Kanter, Durant, Ibaka
Enes Kanter raised some eyebrows and the Thunder drew critisim when the center landed a maximum-salary offer sheet last summer, but the first year of the contract was a success, Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman writes. Kanter delivered despite defensive flaws because of his durability and consistency on offense, Slater notes. Kanter signed a four-year, $70MM deal, but came off the bench in a role he unexpectedly thrived in, Slater adds. The Thunder believes Kanter really started to turn a defensive corner around mid-March and the team appreciated his unselfish attitude, Slater relays.
Here’s more on the Thunder:
- It does not make much sense for Kevin Durant, who will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st to sign a long-term deal without knowing what Russell Westbrook will do next year, when he becomes a free agent, Amin Elhassan of ESPN.com opines in an Insider piece. Considering the Thunder’s run this year, Durant likely thinks the team can capture a championship next season, Elhassan surmises. The Spurs would be a logical option next summer for Durant if he chooses to ink a short-term deal with the Thunder in order to maximize on the league’s expected salary cap rise, Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com suggests in the same story.
- Serge Ibaka, who is set to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2016/17 season, adapted well this year into the role of a stretch four, Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman details. In Tramel’s report card on Ibaka, the scribe notes, however, that Ibaka voiced frustration during the middle of the season over not handling the ball as much as he was used to.
Latest Draft News
- Former Louisville small forward Damion Lee has participated in workouts for the Clippers, Celtics, Suns, Spurs, Wizards, Jazz and Raptors, plus, he has upcoming visits scheduled with the Mavericks and Thunder, Kennedy tweets.
Kevin Durant Not Considering Rockets
Kevin Durant and James Harden have been spotted hanging out together this week, but their social plans aren’t related at all to Durant’s free agency, reports ESPN’s Marc Stein. According to Stein, despite Harden’s presence in Houston and the team’s reported interest in Durant, the Rockets aren’t a club KD plans to seriously consider in free agency this summer.
Houston is one of many teams expected to make a run at Durant this offseason, joining the Warriors, Spurs, Heat, Celtics, Knicks, Lakers, and Wizards, among others. As has long been the case though, people around the NBA still believe the most likely scenario involves the Thunder star returning to Oklahoma City on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first season.
Still, Durant is expected to be open to taking recruiting meetings, and we heard on Thursday that the Spurs and Warriors are among the clubs “planning big pitches.” Stein corroborates that report, suggesting that Golden State and San Antonio are considered by many executives around the league to be the two biggest threats to OKC.
While the NBA’s tampering rules don’t prevent Durant’s friends on rival teams, such as Harden, from spending time with him and perhaps making their own pitches this month, clubs won’t be able to formally pursue the seven-time All-Star until the new league year gets underway, three weeks from today.
Free Agent Rumors: Durant, Conley, Whiteside
Within his latest piece for Basketball Insiders, Steve Kyler examines a few of this year’s top free-agents-to-be, taking stock of their situations and passing along the latest notes and rumors he’s heard on each player. Here’s a round-up of some of the key info from Kyler’s piece:
- Even though Kevin Durant is considered most likely to return to the Thunder, he’s expected to take meetings, and Kyler hears that the Warriors and Spurs are “planning big pitches.” The belief around the NBA is that Durant will return to OKC on a deal that allows him to opt out in a year so that his free agency will line up with Russell Westbrook‘s and Serge Ibaka‘s in 2017.
- Sources close to Mike Conley‘s camp have suggested recently that Conley is “more open to new situations” than the Grizzlies would like. According to Kyler, those sources believe that the point guard wants to see signs that Memphis is serious about fortifying its roster with other pieces before committing to the team for the long term. Kyler identifies the “dark horse” in the Conley sweepstakes as the Spurs, who are believed to be willing to make some changes to their core if it means landing another high-level player.
- Hassan Whiteside is expected to land a maximum-salary contract, with the Lakers and Celtics among the teams believed to be interested. The Heat remain the favorites for the big man, but if they “try to play games,” Whiteside will shop around for other offers, according to Kyler.
- The Raptors and Knicks are among the clubs with interest in Nicolas Batum, but Batum will likely be in line for a max contract or something close to it, and the Hornets are viewed as the team most likely to accommodate such a deal.
- DeMar DeRozan is viewed as a near-lock to return to the Raptors on a max deal.
- Assuming they don’t land Durant, the Warriors sound prepared to keep their current roster intact, even if that means matching a “crazy offer sheet” for Harrison Barnes, writes Kyler.
- The odds of RFA-to-be Jordan Clarkson ending up with any team besides the Lakers are slim, but it’s possible his camp will seek out an offer sheet from another club if necessary, in order to get more favorable terms.