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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 19th, 2015 at 11:05am CST by Charlie Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Ricky Rubio ($12,700,000)
Nikola Pekovic ($12,100,000)
Kevin Martin ($7,085,000)
Anthony Bennett ($5,803,560)
Andrew Wiggins ($5,758,680)
Chase Budinger ($5,000,000)
Zach LaVine ($2,148,360)
Shabazz Muhammad ($2,056,920)
Adreian Payne ($1,938,840)
Gorgui Dieng ($1,474,440)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Lorenzo Brown — $947,276

Options

None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Justin Hamilton ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer²
Robbie Hummel ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer³
Arinze Onuaku ($1,147,276) — $1,147,276 qualifying offer⁴

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Kevin Garnett ($18,000,000)
No. 1 pick ($4,753,000)
Gary Neal ($4,225,000)
(Othyus Jeffers $947,276)⁵

Draft Picks

1st Round (1st overall)
2nd Round (31st overall)
2nd Round (36th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $56,065,800
Non-Guaranteed Salary: $947,276
Options: $0
Cap Holds: $31,367,104
Total: $88,380,180

The Timberwolves lay claim to the longest playoff drought in the NBA, but with the luck they’ve seen over the last calendar year, it certainly looks like the tide is turning in Minnesota’s favor. It’s been nearly 10 months since the franchise officially sent Kevin Love to the Cavaliers in exchange for a package that included the reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins, who flashed definite superstar potential during his first year in the NBA. With a roster chock full of young talent and the No. 1 selection in the upcoming draft, the Wolves have a chance to be one of the NBA’s best teams in just a few seasons; they’ll just need to manage their resources correctly, beginning with the moves they make this summer.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

For the first time in franchise history, the Wolves own the top pick in the draft. There’s always the chance that team president Flip Saunders swings a trade to move down in the order or makes an off-the-wall choice, but odds point to Adam Silver calling either Karl-Anthony Towns’ or Jahlil Okafor’s name as the first overall selection next week. Both of the big men have a chance to become cornerstone players for whatever team selects them, but Towns’ outside shooting and superior low-post defense seemingly make him a better fit alongside back-to-the-basket monster Nikola Pekovic, whom the Wolves inked to a five-year, $60MM deal just two summers back.

Pekovic has had trouble staying healthy since signing his big contract, and while Gorgui Dieng has shown he’s capable of contributing during his absence, Towns’ offensive versatility and defensive prowess could improve the club’s less-than-stellar floor spacing and nearly non-existent rim protection; two components crucial to today’s NBA. Plus, Towns could play alongside either, as his skillset means he could see plenty of time playing the four at the next level. Reports originally pegged Saunders to prefer Okafor, but the latest rumors suggest Towns might be the Wolves’ top choice. A frontcourt consisting of whichever big man they choose alongside Pekovic, Dieng, Adreian Payne, and Anthony Bennett is a solid young group with a chance to be exceptionally deep from top to bottom, especially with mentorship from future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett.

Garnett is entering free agency, but he’s reportedly expected to re-sign with the team for two more years. The Wolves have apparently wanted him to do so since the trade that brought him in from the Nets, and while it seemed in April that KG hadn’t made any definitive decision just yet, that looks like the direction he’s been leaning, and Saunders anticipates that he’ll be back. Just what sort of money Garnett will make isn’t so easy to predict. Minnesota has the Bird Rights necessary to pay him up to the max, but he’s no longer worth that sort of money, and even the $12MM he made this past season seems like a bit much. Perhaps Dirk Nowitzki‘s three-year, $25MM contract with the Mavericks, one that provides an average annual value of about $8.3MM, will serve as an example to follow for Garnett’s two-year arrangement. Nowitzki made tremendous financial sacrifice, but he’s a significantly more productive player than Garnett is at this point, and that was especially so last year when he signed. Such a deal would allow the Wolves plenty of room to use the full $5.434MM mid-level exception without having to worry about the projected $81.6MM tax line.

It would apparently take that mid-level amount to sign Euroleague MVP Nemanja Bjelica, whose NBA rights the Timberwolves own. Bjelica and the Wolves seem to have mutual interest, but shelling out a long-term mid-level deal may well be too rich for Minnesota’s blood. A handful of teams have interest in trading for his rights, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities, and while another report casts doubt on any pursuit from one of those teams, the Wolves seem to have a chance to pick up another asset for the future in return for Bjelica, who’s already 27.

Attaching Bjelica to Chase Budinger in trade proposals would ostensibly make it easier for the Wolves to offload the six-year veteran small forward, whom the Wolves reportedly sought to trade early last season and again at the deadline. The Sixers apparently had interest just before the deadline, and given Philadelphia’s affinity for draft-and-stash talent like Bjelica, that could be an avenue for Minnesota to explore this summer. Budinger was somewhat more productive this past season than in 2013/14, so that would help Saunders find a new home for him, though the now 27-year-old did compile the sixth-most minutes on Minnesota’s injury-hit roster this past season.

Trade rumors swirled around Ricky Rubio this spring, with conflicting reports painting different pictures of whether he wants out and whether the Timberwolves would be pleased to accommodate such a wish. Rubio himself said he’d like to stay, and Saunders mentioned Rubio among the team’s building blocks, calling him a “great point guard,” so neither side is giving any public indication of trade interest. It’s unlikely that any player, aside from Wiggins, anyway, is truly off-limits on a team that just finished with the league’s worst record, but with a new four-year, $55MM extension kicking in for next season, Rubio probably isn’t going anywhere, at least until he can prove his health to potential suitors. It’s tough to envision any team wanting to take on a player signed to eight-figure salaries for that length of time who’s coming off a 22-game season and who’s played in only 65% of his team’s games over his career.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have the opportunity to enter next season with much of their roster intact. They’ll have the chance to tender inexpensive qualifying offers to Arinze Onuaku, Justin Hamilton, and Robbie Hummel, with the latter two seemingly the most likely candidates of the trio to return next season. Saunders has shown a fondness for both players, although he declined to make a qualifying to Hummel last year before eventually re-signing him. Given the team’s potential depth down low, it seems like Hamilton is a long shot to be back next year, while Hummel might be offered a one-year, minimum salary pact to stick around, though that’s just my speculation.

The Wolves can begin next season as the first team in NBA history with three consecutive No. 1 picks on their roster, so more optimism is present than usually surrounds a 16-win team. Still, Minnesota has a long way to go to become a contender, particularly in the brutal Western Conference. The Wolves should improve on their record from this past season with better health and continued development of their youthful core in 2015/16, but with limited cap flexibility, especially with Garnett poised to return, a palpable limit exists on just how much better the team can be next season. A Bucks-style leap from the league’s worst record into the playoffs the very next year doesn’t appear to be forthcoming for Minnesota.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Budinger’s salary for 2015/16 was originally in the form of a player option, but in April he formally opted in.
2 — The cap hold for Hamilton would be $947,276 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
3 — The cap hold for Hummel would be $1,144,000 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
4 — The cap hold for Onuaku would be $947,276 if the Timberwolves elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
5 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation of why players like Jeffers technically remain on the books.

Chuck Myron was a contributing writer to this story. The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

Pacific Notes: Cook, Lakers, Clippers, Lee

June 15th, 2015 at 10:42pm CST by Charlie Adams

Reports have indicated that the Lakers have their sights set on Jahlil Okafor with the second pick in the draft, but Quinn Cook, Okafor’s teammate at Duke, is hoping LA might have some interest in nabbing him later in the night, as Janis Carr of the Orange County Register passes along. Cook described himself as the “biggest Lakers fan you could ever think of,” and while he isn’t a sure thing to get drafted (he’s listed as this year’s 55th best prospect by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress), the Lakers’ decision to work Cook out means there’s at least a chance LA has some interest in wheeling for a late second round selection to swoop him up. While we wait to see if an Okafor-Cook reunion might be in the works, here’s more out of the Pacific Division:

Along with Cook, the Lakers also worked out Branden Dawson, Treveon Graham, Vincent Hunter, Travis Trice, and Aaron White, the team announced on Twitter. Anyone LA might be thinking of taking from this group would likely come late in the second round.
The decision that the Clippers made to deal away Spencer Hawes to the Hornets increases the likelihood that the team retains big man Glen Davis, as Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times surmises in a tweet.
The Warriors never considered trading David Lee at the trade deadline this year, as Golden State owner Joe Lacob tells Sam Amick of USA Today, adding that the front office believed he could help the team win a championship. The decision appears to be a wise one as the Warriors are one win away from taking home the NBA title.
Lee acknowledged to Amick in the same piece that he understands there’s a chance he might get moved this summer for the right price. “But I also know that whether it’s here [in Golden State] or somewhere else next year, that I’m going to have a great year, given the opportunity.” Lee said. “I have confidence in myself. It’s not like I played bad and lost my job. I got injured, and things have worked out the way they have, and I’m excited for the future. And most importantly, I hope we can get this done.”

Draft Notes: Booker, Hornets, Knicks, Qualls

June 15th, 2015 at 9:36pm CST by Charlie Adams

The trade sending Lance Stephenson to the Clippers will likely have an impact on how the draft unfolds, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com tweets that the move raises the probability that the Hornets take Devin Booker or Kelly Oubre with the 10th pick. Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune concurs (on Twitter), suggesting that Booker “definitely” won’t be around by the time the Jazz are on the clock with the 12th selection. Ford adds (via Twitter) that the Hornets have an affinity for R.J. Hunter too but that the team won’t take him as high as 10th. Instead, Ford thinks they could potentially move down in the draft if the right deal presents itself. Let’s have a look at more on the quickly approaching draft:

The Knicks are giving serious consideration to trading down and drafting Cameron Payne, league sources tell Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com, who adds that the decision not to bring in the former Murray State point guard for a workout means there could potentially be varying opinions on his value in the team’s front office.
Kristaps Porzingis’ draft stock is rising faster than any other lottery pick’s, league executives tell Ken Berger of CBSSports.com (Twitter link).
Second round hopeful Michael Qualls has been diagnosed with a torn ACL, Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress passes along on Twitter. The Arkansas wing had been listed as the 40th best prospect by Givony and the 48th best one by Ford, but this injury almost certainly means Qualls won’t be selected.
The Pacers possess the 11th pick, but Frank Vogel insists that the depth of this draft has him feeling like he can get a talent that would usually be taken with the third, fourth, or fifth selections, as Dana Hunsinger of the Indy Star details.
If the Hornets are to move down in the draft, Ford tweets that the most logical trade partner for the team is the Celtics, who have the 16th pick. It’s unclear whether his statement is an indicator of interest on either team’s part or if it’s merely speculative, however.

Atlantic Notes: Nets, Blatt, Lalanne, Celtics

June 4th, 2015 at 10:27pm CST by Charlie Adams

The Nets will swap picks with the Hawks in the upcoming draft as a result of the Joe Johnson trade, meaning they’ll be selecting at 29th. Still, Brooklyn director of player personnel Gregg Polinsky doesn’t sound like he’s too worried about picking so low, as Roderick Boone of Newsday passes along, since Polinsky believes GM Billy King’s creativity will help the Nets land a difference maker late in the first.

Lakers Rumors: Second Pick, Russell, Kobe

June 4th, 2015 at 9:48pm CST by Charlie Adams

The growing feeling around the league is that the Lakers will be willing to move the second overall pick in the upcoming draft if it means they get back a younger veteran who can make an immediate impact, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com writes in his latest chat with readers. Los Angeles isn’t keen on rebuilding, according to Ford, and he believes the right offer could mean the club parting ways with the chance to select either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor. Nothing is certain yet, but the Lakers are in a good position whether they choose to keep the pick or deal it. Let’s round up some more on LA..

Ford writes in the same chat that it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Lakers select D’Angelo Russell over Okafor, should the club choose to retain its pick and Towns is selected first.
The Lakers will bring in St. John’s product D’Angelo Harrison as part of a workout group on Friday, a league source tells Michael Scotto of Sheridan Hoops (on Twitter). Harrison is represented by Bernie Lee of Lee Basketball Services.
Free agents are said to be leery of playing with Lakers star Kobe Bryant, but some of this year’s draft prospects seem excited about the possibility, as Bill Oram of the OC Register writes. “I would probably sleep over at his house every night,” UNLV guard Rashad Vaughn said on Wednesday. “I’m serious; on his lawn. He’d probably have to kick me out. I think would be great to be able to come here and learn under him.”

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Draft Notes: Bucks, Mudiay, Jones, Powell

June 4th, 2015 at 9:16pm CST by Charlie Adams

There’s talk among NBA front offices that the Bucks have their sights set on a pair of shooting guards as potential targets for the 17th pick in the upcoming draft, according to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times, who identifies Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Arizona) and Rashad Vaughn (UNLV) as the two players Milwaukee will be targeting. As Woelfel points out, both members of the pair are represented by Jeff Schwartz, who works at the same agency that serves Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis, Khris Middleton and Jason Kidd. We’ve got more on the Bucks and the upcoming draft below:

Bobby Portis (Arkansas), Cameron Payne (Murray State), Justin Anderson (Virginia), Kevon Looney (UCLA), Jerian Grant (Notre Dame) and R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) will work out for the Bucks, Woelfel notes in the piece linked above. He also mentions that Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky have declined to work out for Milwaukee. Prevailing word around the league is that neither player will drop out of the lottery, according to Woelfel.
Emmanuel Mudiay is scheduled to work out for the Timberwolves in addition to the Lakers, Sixers, and Knicks, as SMU coach Larry Brown tells Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. Brown had already told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that the highly touted point guard would be putting his skills on display for the latter three of the group mentioned before. Of course, those four teams hold the top four picks in the draft.
Duke freshman Tyus Jones won’t be showing off for any more teams in the near future, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN hears that the national-champion point guard’s back acted up during a workout with the Rockets (Twitter link). Still, Wolfson and Woelfel both note the Mavs have interest Jones with the 21st pick.
The Knicks have almost “no idea” what to do with the fourth selection in the upcoming draft, a person close to the organization tells Moke Hamilton of Basketball Insiders for a mock draft piece. New York is willing to trade back, according to Hamilton, since there are teams who would potentially be interested in getting the fourth pick to nab Willie Cauley-Stein.
UCLA senior shooting guard Norman Powell is touting his ability to play the point and his four years of college experience as he makes the pre-draft workout rounds, as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News details. He’s already auditioned for the Bulls, Rockets, Spurs and Sixers, Medina notes.

Eddie Scarito contributed to this post.

Atlantic Notes: Love, Celtics, Nets, D-Will

May 11th, 2015 at 10:42pm CST by Charlie Adams

Kevin Love harbors no long-lasting ill-will toward Kelly Olynyk or the Celtics, a source “authoritatively” told TNT’s David Aldridge, who writes in his Morning Tip column for NBA.com. Love recently insisted he had moved on from the injury Olynyk caused him, and there’s apparently been legitimate fear in the Cavs front office that the soon-to-be free agent will sign a new deal with a different team this summer, perhaps even Boston. As we wait to see if Love moves on from Cleveland, there’s more to pass along from Aldridge in tonight’s look around the Atlantic:

The Nets are not interested in reaching a buyout deal with Deron Williams, Aldridge writes in the same piece, explaining that management is not interested in paying D-Will while he doesn’t play for the team. Instead, Aldridge speculates Brooklyn will likely try to find a suitor for Joe Johnson’s hefty contract in order to lighten the team’s payroll.
There’s “genuine uncertainty” about whether or not Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young will exercise their player options this summer, as Sean Deveney of Sporting News writes in his offseason outlook of the Nets. Although Lopez’s option figure is much higher than Young’s, both decisions will ultimately affect Brooklyn’s approach to free agency. Rumor has it Lopez will opt out in search of a bigger deal.
Sports Illustrated’s Phil Taylor examines how Celtics coach Brad Stevens and Thunder coach Billy Donovan might be opening up the door for other college coaches to be hired by pro clubs, suggesting that previous failed NCAA-to-NBA hires were a result of big egos and/or poor organizational fits.
Earlier today, we heard the Knicks are likely to sign Thanasis Antetokounmpo this summer.

Prospect Profile: Devin Booker

May 11th, 2015 at 9:20pm CST by Charlie Adams

Devin Booker’s name is one that often goes unmentioned when discussing the best talent in this year’s draft class, but that’s not because of unimpressive play during his brief stint with Kentucky. Instead, the NBA-bound Wildcat freshman can blame his hyper-talented team for overshadowing the efficient numbers he was able to put up during his lone season in blue and white. Booker is one of seven Kentucky players leaving school early to enter the pros, and while ex-teammates Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein almost certainly figure to be taken ahead of him, there’s little doubt that Booker’s game will effectively translate to the next level and give whichever team that takes him a solid NBA shooting guard.

Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Booker as the 12^th best prospect in this year’s class, while Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider link) has him a decent amount lower at 19^th. At only 18 years old, Booker is the youngest player in the upcoming crop of rookies; he won’t even turn 19 until the 2015/16 season has already tipped off. In spite of his youth, Givony writes in the previously linked piece that Booker’s strong fundamentals and high basketball IQ should definitely stand to appeal to GM’s around the Association. Younger players can oftentimes be knocked for taking bad shots or turning the ball over, but Booker’s stellar 47.1% field goal percentage and ultra-low 1.8 turnovers per 40 minutes prove that he makes good decisions when he’s got the rock in his hands.

While his intelligence on the floor shouldn’t be overlooked, it’s obvious that the most impressive skill Booker brings to the table is his lights-out shooting. He nailed 41.1% of his takes from beyond the arc last season, and his 60% true shooting percentage was fourth best in the SEC. Right around half of his attempted field goals came from three point range, so his eye-catching numbers don’t come from a small sample, and at 6.9 threes attempted per 40 minutes, it’s clear Booker is confident in his ability to hit from downtown (rightfully so). Floor spacing is a critical component in today’s NBA game, and Booker’s excellent mechanics and high release point make him arguably the best marksmen in this year’s class.

At 6’6” and over 200 pounds, Booker definitely possesses enough size to play shooting guard at the next level. He’s not an elite-level athlete, but he does have the capability to create his own shot and doesn’t just rely on spot-up jumpers to earn his points. Excellent footwork and crafty use of teammates’ screens give Booker the ability to hit on looks from all over the floor, and he’s not afraid to drain it from anywhere he can get open. Still, Booker’s game primarily takes place outside of the paint, and Ford believes he’ll need to improve his ability to drive to the basket if he wants to become a complete offensive player at the next level. It’s not that Booker struggles to finish once he’s at the rim; he just has a tough time cutting through defenses and making adjustments to get there.

Booker’s defense was nothing spectacular last year, but he didn’t hurt his team while he was on the floor either. His 92.2 defensive rating was good enough to rank eighth in the SEC, but that figure was heavily impacted by the presence of teammates Towns and Cauley-Stein, two elite rim protectors who gave opposing offenses nightmares. Booker’s height and weight will allow him to stick with most two-guards in the NBA, but Givony notes that Booker’s diminutive 6’6″ wingspan will likely prevent him from effectively guarding longer wing players, severely limiting his positional versatility.

It’s almost impossible to find a “sure thing” in the draft, but Booker’s high IQ and precise shooting make him a low-risk selection worthy of being taken in the middle of the first round. In fact, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him taken in the back end of the lottery, depending on how his workouts go over the next month and a half. Booker will probably never develop into a perennial All-Star, but his combination of youth, intelligence, and floor spacing capabilities have him looking like he has the makeup to be a solid NBA two-guard at the very least, with the ceiling of a very good fundamental player who can score in bunches.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

D’Angelo Russell Declares For Draft

April 22nd, 2015 at 5:00pm CST by Charlie Adams

APRIL 22ND, 5:00pm: Russell has officially decided to enter the draft, Paul Biancardi of ESPN.com reports. “This was a hard decision because I knew I could come back and play with my teammates who I love, and to be coached by coach Thad Matta again would have been awesome, but at the same time I wanted to pursue my dream of playing in the NBA,” Russell said. “I know what I am capable of and the sky’s the limit with effort. I know I have a lot to work on.“

APRIL 12TH, 9:38pm: Ohio State freshman D’Angelo Russell plans to declare for the draft within the next two days, league sources tell Shams Charania of RealGM (Twitter link). There’s been no official announcement from Russell’s camp, but the news is hardly surprising given the 19-year-old point guard’s sky-high draft stock. Both Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress and Chad Ford of ESPN.com list him as the fourth best prospect in this year’s class, behind only Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and Emmanuel Mudiay.

Russell was not as heralded as some other prospects in this year’s draft class when the season began, as Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors detailed in his prospect profile of the likely soon-to-be lottery pick, but his stock rose significantly as the NCAA season rolled on. At 6’5”, he’s capable of playing either guard position in the NBA, and even though he doesn’t possess freak athleticism, he’s an intelligent playmaker who can score in bunches and also improve his teammates.

While Mudiay’s stock is higher than Russell’s at the moment, this year’s crop of guard’s doesn’t extend very deep. Outside of the pair of guards I just mentioned, no ones or twos in the draft stand out as potential stars, and Russell’s average marks of 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists definitely show he’s got the chance to excel at the next level.

Atlantic Notes: ‘Melo, Knicks, Perkins, Kidd

April 12th, 2015 at 10:48pm CST by Charlie Adams

The Knicks are guaranteed to have a record that’s among the worst three in the NBA this season, but Bucks coach Jason Kidd thinks Carmelo Anthony’s presence on New York’s roster could help lure free agents to the Big Apple this summer, relays Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. The Knicks will have about $32.4MM in commitments next season, and they’ll surely be looking for an upgrade at almost every position on their roster going forward. We’ve got more from Begley on the Knicks in tonight’s look at the latest from the Atlantic:

Pacers executive and former Knicks president Donnie Walsh believes Phil Jackson’s influence will eventually turn New York into a winning club, as Begley writes in the same piece. Still, Walsh cautions that Jackson’s approach will likely require patience, and free agents won’t just flock to the Knicks simply because they play in a big market.
Kendrick Perkins spoke fondly of the Celtics and told Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com that he thinks the C’s are on the right track moving forward. Perkins, a free agent at season’s end, added that he’s proud of the progress his former team has made this season and complimented the play of Avery Bradley.
Tim Bontemps of the New York Post explores Kidd’s transition from coaching the Nets to coaching the Bucks.

Author: Charlie Adams