Extension Candidate

Extension Candidate: Larry Nance Jr.

August 31st, 2018 at 12:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Twenty-three players became eligible for rookie scale extensions when the 2018/19 NBA league year began in July. One of those 23, Devin Booker, quickly finalized a new deal with the Suns, leaving 22 other players who could sign rookie scale extensions before the October 15 deadline. In the weeks leading up to that deadline, we’ll be taking a closer look at some of the strongest candidates for new contracts.

Our examination of this year’s candidates for rookie scale extensions continues today with Cavaliers big man Larry Nance Jr. Let’s dive in…

Why the Cavaliers should give him an extension:

The Cavaliers liked Nance enough at last season’s trade deadline that they were willing to give up a first-round pick and take on Jordan Clarkson‘s contract – not exactly a bargain – to acquire him from the Lakers, despite the fact that the deal helped pave the way for LeBron James to eventually sign with L.A.

Nance struggled a little to adjust to his new team, playing just 15.4 minutes per game in the postseason, but he provided the Cavs with the sort of energy and athleticism that their frontcourt had been lacking. For the season, Nance established new career highs with 8.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and a .581 FG%, showing an ability to run the floor, finish at the rim, and guard multiple positions on defense.

While the sample size wasn’t huge and his numbers were certainly boosted by playing major minutes alongside James, Nance’s on/off-court stats for the Cavs were impressive — the team had a 102.7 defensive rating during his minutes, compared to a 110.9 mark for the rest of the season.

Taking into account his on-court ability, his age (25), and his familial ties to the franchise – Larry Nance Sr. was one of the best players in Cavs history – it makes sense that the Cavs would view Nance Jr. as a long-term building block.

Why the Cavaliers should avoid an extension:

Nance has yet to enjoy a true breakout season, and it’s not entirely clear what such a year would look like. He doesn’t have an outside shot and probably isn’t the type of player who will ever average 20 PPG in a season.

Of course, that same sentiment applies to Clint Capela, who just secured a five-year deal with the Rockets worth between $80-90MM, so it’s not as if Nance doesn’t have value. But unlike Capela, who has developed into one of the NBA’s best interior defenders, Nance isn’t an elite rim protector. While he’s solid on that end of the floor, Nance may not be capable of anchoring a defense.

Even if the Cavs do view Nance as part of their future, the team may want to see what he looks like in a LeBron-less rotation during the 2018/19 season before making a significant financial investment in him. After years of the Cavs’ game plan revolving around James and Kyrie Irving, it remains to be seen how the leftover pieces will fit together going forward.

Points of comparison:

Among recent rookie scale extension recipients, the two best comparables for Nance are probably Gorgui Dieng and Cody Zeller, two big men who aren’t exceptional scorers or rim protectors. Both players signed four-year extensions, with Dieng getting $62.8MM while Zeller received $55.63MM.

Of course, both of those extensions came during the infamous summer of 2016. Teams have tightened up their spending since then, so I’m not sure Nance will be able to match or exceed those deals. A better point of comparison might be a player like Jusuf Nurkic, who signed a four-year contract with the Trail Blazers this summer that has a base value of $48MM, plus incentives.

Nurkic’s skill set isn’t necessarily the same as Nance’s, but he plays a similar role in Portland to the one Nance figures to have in Cleveland, as the team’s third or fourth option. A deal in the Nurkic range is much more realistic for Nance that one in the neighborhood of Capela’s.

Cap outlook:

After several years in the tax, the Cavaliers have actually done a pretty good job clearing their cap of major commitments in 2019/20 and beyond.

Currently, Cleveland has about $77MM in guaranteed salary on its ’19/20 cap. Starting in 2020/21, Kevin Love is the only guaranteed contract only the Cavs’ books, with Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic likely to join him via rookie-contract team options. In other words, a new deal for Nance shouldn’t create any cap or tax issues for the club down the road.

If Nance doesn’t sign an extension this year, his cap hold would be just shy of $7MM in 2019. The difference between that figure and the potential starting salary in an extension probably isn’t big enough to justify waiting to sign him as a restricted free agent, assuming the Cavs want to get him locked up. Especially since Cleveland probably won’t be a major player in 2019 free agency.

Conclusion:

Nance and the Cavaliers reportedly have mutual interest in a long-term arrangement, and talks between the two sides were said earlier this month to be “ongoing.”

While I don’t view Nance as the sort of slam-dunk extension candidate who needs to be secured as soon as possible, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cavs make a strong effort to finalize a deal by October 15. With James gone, the team will want to show that it’s still a desirable destination — extending Love was a good first step, and I expect re-upping Nance to be the next phase of that plan.

Nance may not get the sort of payday he would have had he been negotiating in 2016, but with the cap expected to take another modest jump next summer and the Cavs seemingly enthusiastic about his potential, the big man should still do pretty well.

Will Nance get extended by October 15?
Our prediction: Yes.
Our estimate: Four years, $50MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Kristaps Porzingis

August 29th, 2018 at 12:17pm CST by Luke Adams

Our examination of this year’s candidates for rookie scale extensions continues today with Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis. Let’s dive in…

Why the Knicks should give him an extension:

Porzingis’ unique skill-set, which helped earn him his Unicorn nickname, is also his strongest argument in favor of a lucrative long-term deal. There simply aren’t any other NBA players – now or in the history of the league – who stand 7’3″ but still possess the athleticism and outside shooting ability (.395 3PT%) of Porzingis.

In his first three NBA seasons, Porzingis just kept getting better, increasing his PPG from 14.3 to 18.1 to 22.7. He has also developed into one of the league’s best shot-blockers, establishing a new career high with 2.4 BPG in 2017/18.

While his play has yet to translate to much team success for the Knicks, Porzingis’ on/off-court numbers reveal his value to the team — New York was noticeably better both offensively and defensively when the Latvian big man was on the court (+0.1 net rating) in 2017/18 than when he sat (-7.0 net rating).

Porzingis is still just 23 years old and there’s a sense that he still has plenty of potential yet to be unlocked. New head coach David Fizdale could be the man for the job — reportedly, he and Porzingis have hit it off already, which is a positive sign for the franchise after the young star didn’t always see eye-to-eye with former head coach Jeff Hornacek.

Why the Knicks should avoid an extension:

The 2017/18 season was Porzingis’ best as a pro, but it was also his briefest — a torn ACL ended his year after just 48 games, and he’s not expected to be ready to play at the start of the 2018/19 campaign.

While it’s probably unfair to say Porzingis is injury-prone, he has never played more than 72 games in a season, and many players who stand 7’3″ or taller have battled leg injuries throughout their NBA careers. ACL tears are no joke, so even if New York expects Porzingis to make a full recovery, the team should be wary of making a massive investment in him while he’s still rehabbing the injury.

In terms of non-health-related concerns, Porzingis’ modest rebounding numbers (6.6 RPG in 2017/18) are somewhat surprising, but he has typically played alongside prolific rebounders like Enes Kanter and Joakim Noah in the frontcourt, and probably could grab a few more boards if he was counted on to do so.

The Knicks also may want to avoid an extension this year if they have aspirations of making a big splash during the 2019 free agent period. Porzingis’ cap hold as a restricted free agent would cost less than the cap charge on a new contract, so if the Knicks hold off on re-signing him until next July, the team could maximize its cap flexibility, as we detail below.

Points of comparison:

Porzingis’ best and simplest point of comparison is another player who is a “unicorn” in his own right: Sixers center Joel Embiid. Last fall, Embiid signed a five-year, maximum salary contract with the Sixers that included some injury protection for the club.

While the Knicks could explore including similar injury-protection language in an offer for Porzingis, it seems unlikely that his camp would go for that — Embiid had only appeared in 31 NBA games over three seasons when he signed his deal, whereas the Knicks’ star has logged 186 contests. The 76ers’ durability concerns with Embiid were arguably more pressing and more justified than the Knicks’ with Porzingis, despite his ACL tear.

Cap outlook:

Assuming they stretch Noah’s contract at some point after September 1, the Knicks could enter the summer of 2019 with only about $48.14MM in guaranteed salary on their books. That figure doesn’t include any non-guaranteed salaries or cap holds.

If Porzingis is a restricted free agent at that point, his cap hold would be worth $17,091,162, increasing the Knicks’ total commitments to about $65.23MM. After taking into account a handful of cap holds for empty roster spots, New York would still have upwards of $38MM in cap room in that scenario, allowing the team to pursue a star free agent before eventually going over the cap to re-sign Porzingis.

If Porzingis signs an extension this year, his cap charge for 2019/20 would increase to a projected $27.25MM, cutting into the Knicks’ projected cap room by approximately $10MM and compromising the team’s ability to afford a maximum-salary free agent without making additional cost-cutting moves.

That wouldn’t be the end of the world — there’s no guarantee that the Knicks will be able to land a star in 2019 free agency anyway, and if they did get a commitment from someone after having extended Porzingis, it shouldn’t be too hard to trade a player like Courtney Lee in a deal that clears a little extra cap space. Plus, allowing Porzingis to reach restricted free agency would open up the door for another team to sign him a shorter-term offer sheet (ie. four years with a player option) that would let him reach unrestricted free agency earlier.

Still, if the Knicks want to maximize their 2019 flexibility, it probably makes sense to hold off on a Porzingis extension for now.

Conclusion:

Like fellow star big man Karl-Anthony Towns, Porzingis is a lock to get a massive new deal at some point — it’s just a matter of when. If it happens this year, it probably won’t happen until very close to the October 15 deadline, to give the Knicks as much time as possible to evaluate the 23-year-old’s ACL recovery process.

Given Porzingis’ rocky relationships with Hornacek and Phil Jackson in past years, the Knicks won’t want to risk upsetting their potential franchise player again. So if it’s important to Porzingis that he gets his new deal this year, I think the Knicks will be ready to comply.

On the other hand, it’s not out of the question that the Knicks are able to convince Porzingis it’s best for the team’s long-term interests to wait until next summer to finalize his new deal — that would allow New York to maximize its cap flexibility and potentially add a star free agent to play alongside the big man a year from now.

That approach wouldn’t be without its risks for Porzingis. If he doesn’t look great after returning from his ACL injury, or if he re-injures his leg, the Knicks would gain some additional leverage in contract talks next summer. Porzingis has more upside than either Zach LaVine or Jabari Parker, but it’s still worth looking at how their respective free agent values took a hit after they returned from their own ACL injuries. Even if it would hamstring the Knicks’ spending power a little next summer, it might be in Porzingis’ best interests to push for an extension sooner rather than later.

Will Porzingis get extended by October 15?
Our prediction: Yes, unless he’s willing to wait.
Our estimate: Four or five years, maximum salary (or very close to it).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Karl-Anthony Towns

August 27th, 2018 at 12:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Our examination of this year’s candidates for rookie scale extensions begins today with Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns. Let’s dive in…

Why the Timberwolves should give him an extension:

Towns’ case for a new deal is obvious. A former first overall pick, he’s already one of the NBA’s most talented big men, earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods in 2017/18. He has averaged a double-double in each of his three NBA seasons, recording 21.6 PPG and 11.7 overall over the course of his young NBA career.

Unlike many other NBA bigs, Towns figures to have no problem adapting as the NBA continues to evolve — his .387 career 3PT% (.421 in 2017/18) reflects his ability to score from the outside as well as the inside, so he’s hardly a one-dimensional offensive player. He can also pass the ball effectively (2.4 career APG), and while he’s not an elite rim protector on defense, he’s capable of blocking shots (1.4 career BPG).

On top of all that, Towns has displayed a skill that’s over overlooked and undervalued — durability. He has yet to miss a game since entering the league, playing all 82 contests in three consecutive years.

At age 22, Towns still has plenty of room to develop into a more complete and effective player, a scary possibility for opposing teams to consider. He’d likely be one of the first few players named if NBA general managers were given the ability to lock up any current player for the next decade.

Why the Timberwolves should avoid an extension:

While Towns is already a monster on offense and on the glass, his play on defense leaves something to be desired. Tom Thibodeau brought in Taj Gibson a year ago in order to pair Towns with a tough, defensive-minded veteran in the frontcourt, and the young star may need to be complemented by similar frontcourt partners in the coming years.

Additionally, there may be some concern about how Towns meshes with his fellow stars in Minnesota. Reports of tension have followed around the Timberwolves’ three most important players – Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Jimmy Butler – and if there’s truth to those rumors, locking up Towns to a long-term deal may help push someone like Butler out of Minnesota.

Of course, if the Wolves are worried at all about Towns’ defense or his locker-room relationships, they aren’t exhibiting that concern publicly. The two sides have reportedly discussed a maximum-salary extension, with team owner Glen Taylor confirming that Minnesota put an offer of that caliber on the table. Taylor sounds confident that it’s just a matter of when – not if – Towns will sign a new deal with the Wolves.

Points of comparison:

The clearest points of comparison for Towns in terms of recent rookie scale extensions are Joel Embiid (2017) and Anthony Davis (2015), both of whom signed five-year, maximum-salary deals. Towns may not quite have the two-way potential of either of those players, but he’s as talented a scorer as either of them. Plus, both Embiid and Davis had durability concerns when they signed their rookie scale extensions. Those concerns don’t exist with Towns.

Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Andrew Wiggins, and Kyrie Irving are among the other players who have signed five-year, max-salary extensions within the last few years, and Towns compares favorably to all of them. There’s no question that he’ll be in line for the max.

Cap outlook:

Assuming Towns signs a max contract, it currently projects to count for at least $27.25MM on the Wolves’ cap for 2019/20. If Towns’ representatives are able to negotiate a Rose Rule extension worth up to 30% of the cap, the big man’s starting salary would increase to a projected $32.7MM, should he earn All-NBA honors again in 2018/19.

Either cap hit would essentially eat up the Timberwolves’ potential cap room for the summer of 2019, and that’s even before taking into account a new deal for Jimmy Butler, who can opt out of his contract next year.

If Butler leaves, it will create a new set of on-court problems for the Wolves, but would likely reduce any long-term financial concerns. However, if Butler decides to re-up in Minnesota alongside Towns, the tax ramifications would become an immediate issue for the franchise, and would perhaps necessitate a salary-dump deal involving Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, or Jeff Teague.

Conclusion:

Barring a huge last-minute surprise, it’s a safe bet that Towns will sign a five-year, maximum-salary extension with the Wolves at some point before October 15. The specific details will be interesting to keep an eye on though.

If Towns is able to negotiate a fifth-year player option, like Davis did with the Pelicans, it would put him on track to reach free agency a year earlier, in 2023 rather than 2024. He’d be 27 years old at that point, presumably in the midst of his prime, and with the NBA’s salary cap expected to keep increasing in the coming years, reaching unrestricted free agency a little sooner could pay off in a big way.

Additionally, as we alluded to above, not all maximum-salary contracts are created equal. A player who earns two All-NBA nods in the final three years of his rookie contract is eligible for a max salary starting at 30% of the cap instead of 25%. That gap would result in a difference of more than $30MM over the life of a five-year contract, so Towns’ reps will do all they can to make sure that language is included in his new deal. If Minnesota is resistant to going as high as 30%, the two sides could compromise somewhere between 25-30%, but I’d expect Towns’ camp to win out.

Will Towns get extended by October 15?
Our prediction: Yes.
Our estimate: Five years, maximum salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Julius Randle

September 22nd, 2017 at 7:58pm CST by Austin Kent

For the third straight season, Julius Randle made progress establishing himself as a significant factor in the Lakers’ frontcourt. However, that progress won’t impact whether or not the 22-year-old inks a contract extension prior to the October 16th deadline.

No, Randle’s fate – perhaps more than any other player headed into the final year of a rookie contract – is tied to the lofty ambitions of the franchise that he plays for.

Put simply, the Lakers are all-in on preserving cap space for the 2018 free agency period — a period in which they’ll inevitably pursue LeBron James and Paul George. Or LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. Or LeBron James and any other star player who opts to test the waters next summer, it really just depends on which barber you ask.

This isn’t a knock on Randle. It’s a reality. The same reality that saw L.A. ship D’Angelo Russell out of town just to alleviate the club’s $16MM obligation to Timofey Mozgov in 2018/19.

Signing Randle to any extension in the realm of what he would justifiably qualify for before the October deadline would unnecessarily eat into the room that the Lakers would need in order to make a big, nay, massive splash next offseason. As it stands, Los Angeles has just under $54MM on their books for the 2018/19 season and you can bet the farm that they club will do anything within reason to unload Luol Deng‘s 18MM as soon as conceivably possible.

Of course, the Lakers can always circle back to Randle as a restricted free agent once they have a better idea of how their 2018 offseason will play out, but that obviously comes with inherent risk. It’s not inconceivable that Randle will raise his value this season and coax an aggressive offer sheet out of a team with cap space to burn.

So the question isn’t whether Randle will earn a contract extension in the next month – that almost certainly won’t happen – but rather if his play thus far has warranted it.

In his two full seasons with the Lakers, Randle has averaged just under a double double, putting up 12.2 PPG and 9.4 RPG while flashing impressive vision for a post player and a handle reminiscent of a slightly less polished Blake Griffin (that’s still a good thing).

Randle’s per-36 numbers ooze Zach Randolph-esque potential and the fact that he’s a productive contributor who doesn’t require much of the spotlight bodes well for a Lakers team that has every intention of filling the lineup around him with stars.

Expect Randle, already a competent third or fourth option, to take yet another step forward in 2017/18. The power forward has committed to improving his physical conditioning this summer and will now play alongside Lonzo Ball, one of the most exciting playmakers to come into the league in years.

We saw excellent rebound and assist rates out of Randle last season, as well as a modest 13.2 points per contest. That last figure could jump up to a more headline-worthy level, conveniently ahead of July 2018, when he hits the market for the first time.

If the pending restricted free agent drives his value to a level that precludes Los Angeles from retaining him, then that’s simply a consequence of the Lakers’ own ambition.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Jusuf Nurkic

September 14th, 2017 at 9:01pm CST by Austin Kent

After slowly establishing himself as one of the most efficient, low-usage big men in the NBA, Jusuf Nurkic got his first consistent opportunity to shine when the Nuggets shipped him off to the Trail Blazers partway through the 2016/17 campaign.

And shine he did.

It’s not Nurkic’s fault that Nikola Jokic caught up to him and surpassed him on Denver’s depth chart last season but, regardless, it was Nurkic’s value that seemed to dissipate over night. Fast forward to the end of the campaign and there’s more confusion than ever as to what the bruising low post threat really is worth in today’s NBA.

One can’t exactly blame the Nuggets for getting impatient and trading Nurkic for pennies on the dollar — there were clearly elements of addition by subtraction at play considering Nurkic’s reported attitude regarding his demotion in Denver. Still, they gave away a possible star to a division rival in exchange for Mason Plumlee, a 26-year-old with a considerably more modest ceiling.

Nurkic, just 23 years old, is entering the fourth year of his career this season and is thus eligible for a rookie extension prior to the October 16 deadline. There’s no consensus, however, about whether the Trail Blazers should rush out to sign him to one.

With few reported updates, other than Blazers general manager Neil Olshey saying that he doesn’t typically talk about ongoing contract negotiations, there’s no clear sense as to whether locking Nurkic in long-term is even a priority of the organization.

On one hand, Nurkic hit the ground running in Portland, averaging 15.2 points and 10.4 rebounds per game over the course of his 20-game stint with the Blazers post-trade.

The inflated numbers aren’t just the byproduct of a particularly motivated young player either, Nurkic’s 18.7 points and 12.8 rebounds per 36 were only slightly higher than the 15.3 points and 12.0 rates he posted through two and a half years with Denver.

So, yes, Nurkic knows how to fill a stat sheet and, even better, his production contributed to tangible success with his new club. In his taste of action with Portland, the Blazers went 14-6. As Joe Freeman of the Oregonian wrote at the time, the club soared with Nurkic in the lineup, his presence solidifying the squad’s offerings on both ends of the court.

Alas, the sudden arrival of the dominant young big man was, in at least one sense, too good to be true. In late March, Nurkic fractured his right leg and missed the remainder of the 2016/17 season, including the club’s four-game sweep at the hands of the eventual NBA champion Warriors.

Whether the non-displaced fibular fracture was the result of a seven-footer in supposedly sub-optimal condition being suddenly thrust into the heaviest workload of his career or an omen of things to come, the fact that he missed the last chunk of the season is a concern.

While Nurkic’s injury isn’t as catastrophic as the words “out for the remainder of the season” may seem – a similar issue set Steve Nash back a total of 24 games… at age 38 – this isn’t Nurkic’s first significant injury and that’s something that could impact whether the Blazers do or do not offer him a sizable contract earlier than they need to.

If Nurkic can return to the court healthy and put forth 70-plus games at the same standard as last season, it’s hard to imagine him having any trouble finding suitors as a restricted free agent next summer. In that regard, locking him in now could potentially save the organization money in the long run.

The risk, however, may not be worth it.

A more pragmatic approach would be to wait for Nurkic’s borderline cult-like following to normalize over the course of a full season. Then with a larger sample size on which to base expectations, Olshey and company could decide whether or not that’s a direction they want to take the franchise.

Worst case scenario, Nurkic struggles to stay on the court next season and Portland walks away unscathed. Best case scenario, Nurkic Fever continues to sweep the Pacific Northwest and the Blazers are socially obligated to max out a 24-year-old franchise talent that already thrives with the teams existing star backcourt just as they hit their respective primes.

There are worse fevers to succumb to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Clint Capela

September 10th, 2017 at 9:14pm CST by Austin Kent

The Rockets can be forgiven for not coming to terms on a contract extension with 23-year-old Clint Capela so far this offseason, but despite the fact that the franchise is undergoing a change in ownership, the deadline for locking in fourth year players looms.

While Capela has been regarded as a low-key game-changer for Houston ever since a strong showing in the 2015 postseason, the steady strides that he’s made ever since have put him firmly on the fringe of the mainstream hoops community’s radar.

In 65 games for the Rockets last season, including 59 starts, Capela averaged 12.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Those are per-minute production rates on par with some of the best versatile big men in the game. That the 6’10” center did so while shooting a staggering 64.3% from the floor puts him in a class of his own.

Houston will welcome Chris Paul this fall, and it’s hard to imagine Capela’s offense will do anything but continue to expand, considering the legendary playmaker’s ability to work with athletic big men like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan.

Of course whether or not Capela has made a case for an extension is only half the battle. The team will need to justify spending the money, something that’s not necessarily a given considering that the Rockets can so easily obliterate the luxury tax line in the coming years if they’re not careful.

Per Kevin Pelton of ESPN (via ABC), Houston will presumably sign Paul to a max contract next summer. That, paired with James Harden‘s monster extension, will give the Rockets over $80MM in committed salary for their backcourt alone.

Throw in the fact that Houston will commit over $40MM to the trio of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker through 2019/20 and it’s not hard to forecast major luxury tax bills in new owner Tilman Fertitta‘s future.

Pelton projects that Capela and fellow free agent-to-be Trevor Ariza could seek a combined $20MM in salary (a figure that Capela alone could draw, if you ask me) and suddenly Houston runs the risk of annihilating the luxury tax line by nearly $20MM come 2019/20.

The Rockets, of course, could choose to let Ariza walk in the hopes of the recently acquired Tucker filling the role of scrappy perimeter defender, but even that scenario is complicated by the fact that Ariza and Paul have a close enough friendship to have supposedly influenced the trade that brought Paul over from the Clippers in the first place.

As Pelton suggests, the Rockets could make life considerably easier for themselves by finding a taker for the $60MM owed to Anderson through 2019/20. Doing so won’t be easy though.

If Houston has a plan in place, it’s not one that’s been broadcast at this point in the offseason. In May, we discussed a rather innocuous quote from general manager Daryl Morey suggesting that it would be “normal business” to discuss an extension, but all has been silent since.

If the Rockets choose to hold off on extending Capela, the big man would become a restricted free agent next summer. While the 2018 offseason is projected to be slightly tamer than the ones we’ve seen over the past two years, it’s hard to imagine Capela’s value going anywhere but up, relative to where it is currently.

Relative, however, is the operative term. Should the parties decide to go that route, Capela will look to compete with potential free agent centers like Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic and Nerlens Noel, all promising anchors for teams looking to build youthful cores at a time when available cap room, a bountiful resource in 2016 and 2017, normalizes.

So sure, at the end of the day, the Rockets may be able to sit tight on Capela in hopes of retaining him at a lower rate via restricted free agency next summer but doing so would run the risk of letting a team like the Nets extend to him a poison pill offer sheet that Houston would be pressured to match, lest they let a significant part of their core walk just in time for the last few great years Paul will have left in the tank.

Perhaps the best bet for the Rockets when the dust settles from the ownership transition, then, is to square things away with Capela at a generous rate prior to the contract extension deadline on October 16 and then challenge Morey with the task of making the numbers work before Paul’s and Harden’s annual salaries start escalating dramatically after next season.

Regardless, just how the team handles the Capela contract could really shed light on Fertitta’s mentality with his new franchise. While it’s only my speculation, it seems logical enough to infer that an individual who just spent $2.2B on a sports franchise (well over the projected value) wouldn’t be opposed to shelling out extra luxury tax money to preserve one of the most talented cores of NBA players outside of the Bay Area.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Jabari Parker

September 4th, 2017 at 10:05am CST by Austin Kent

It’s been a long three seasons for Bucks forward Jabari Parker, longer still if you consider that there was a brief period in time ahead of the vaunted 2014 NBA Draft that the Chicago native was in the running to be selected with the first overall pick.

Fast forward three seasons and Parker hasn’t exactly had the franchise-altering impact on the organization that fans may have hoped for but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t shown flashes of legitimate value either.

Through three significantly compromised injury-shortened campaigns, it’s been rather difficult to get a handle on what Parker is and what he isn’t. Such uncertainty doesn’t help teams plan for the future in the simplest of times, let alone when there are contract extensions to be negotiated, as is the case now for the forward coming off the third year of his rookie deal.

In 50 2016/17 contests the 21-year-old showed glimpses of the future that draft prognosticators predicted, averaging 20.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while shooting .365 from beyond the arc.

This wasn’t empty production either, it came alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo in a Bucks lineup that finished sixth in the Eastern Conference and firmly established itself as a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future.

Alas, Parker’s particular role in Milwaukee’s ascension – not to mention future – is a complicated one and the new-age power forward fell by the wayside with a torn ACL in early February, remained out for the duration of the campaign and is now expected to be sidelined until the 2018 All-Star Game.

We wrote last week that Basketball Insiders’ Steve Kyler had heard the Bucks were open to getting a deal done ahead of the Oct. 31 rookie scale extension deadline but sought team-friendly terms. That’s not surprising, all things considered.

Even though the organization believes Parker will ultimately make a full recovery from the latest ACL tear, it’s hard to blame them for being reluctant to commit big money to a player with Parker’s track record.

The February, 2017 ACL tear was actually Parker’s second tear in the same knee. In December, 2014 – his rookie season – he tore the ACL for the first time, missed the remainder of the 2014/15 campaign and didn’t get back into full swing until well into the 2015/16 season.

If history repeats itself, Parker may recover along the previously forecast timeline and take the court following the All-Star Break next February, but it could be months after that before he’s physically capable of playing a full work load at his highest level.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Parker could expand upon his impressive 2016/17 line eventually, but if that’s unlikely to happen prior to the 2018/19 season, then venturing into a long-term commitment in the form of a contract extension due less than two months from now seems unnecessarily risky for a franchise at a critical juncture on its path to contention.

Given the context of Parker’s latest injury and the recovery process that stretched well after he returned to the court the last time, the Bucks would be wise to hold off on earmarking a significant portion of their payroll for him sooner than they absolutely have to – nothing is precluding them from throwing money at him next summer.

That said, if Parker’s camp was interested in a locking in a guaranteed deal at a team-friendly rate rather than gambling on restricted free agency after a fourth-straight injury-impacted campaign, the Bucks would have no reason not to listen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Joel Embiid

August 18th, 2017 at 9:41am CST by Dana Gauruder

During the weeks leading up to TNT awards show in late June, one of the biggest mysteries was whether Sixers big man Joel Embiid would be named Rookie of the Year despite playing in just 31 games. Embiid clearly posted the biggest numbers and displayed more talent than any other first-year player in his limited body of work.

Ultimately, voters decided Embiid didn’t play in enough games and handed the prize to Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon.

The Sixers have an even bigger decision to make — does 31 games in three seasons equate to a max contract extension or something close to it?

That’s the biggest dilemma currently hovering over the team’s management, as it must determine what approach to take with the oft-injured Embiid. Virtually from the instant he finally took the court, Embiid essentially removed all debate over which of the three power forward/centers the Sixers invested high draft picks on in recent seasons — Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor — was the best of the trio.

Embiid averaged 20.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 2.5 BPG in those outings, even though the Sixers were being cautious about his minutes. In ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating, Embiid finished fifth among all centers. Embiid, whose career was stalled two full seasons by right foot ailments, still suffered another significant injury.

He was shut down at the beginning of March with torn meniscus and a bone bruise in his left knee. He underwent arthroscopic surgery later that month and has reached the point in his recovery where he’s doing non-contract drills. He’s expected to be ready for training camp and GM Bryan Colangelo has said that he anticipates Embiid will be able to play back-to-backs this season.

With all the time Embiid has spent in the trainer’s room, it would be reasonable to assume that Sixers management would be reluctant to make a long-term commitment to him. Think again. Josh Harris, the team’s managing owner, told reporters in late June he’s focused on locking up Embiid before the October 31 extension deadline.

“Look, I’d just say we want Joel to be on the team for a long time,” Harris said at the time. “We want us all to grow old together. That’s the way I would put it.”

How much would Harris and the rest of the ownership group have to fork over to max out Embiid? The current projection for a five-year max would be $147.9MM, while a four-year commitment would entail $114.24MM in resources.

If the Sixers could have any reasonable expectation that Embiid will stay in one piece for a majority of the next five or six seasons, the investment would pay off handsomely. With a core trio of point guard and top overall pick Markelle Fultz, point forward and 2016 top pick Ben Simmons and Embiid, Philadelphia projects to be one of the Eastern Conference’s elite teams during that stretch.

It’s hard to think that way with the injury issues that Embiid has endured since the tail end of his brief collegiate career at Kansas. Embiid missed the NCAA Tournament as a freshman with a back injury, then underwent his first foot surgery a week before Philadelphia selected him with the No. 3 overall pick in 2014.

It’s been a long and ongoing process to get Embiid, who will make $6.1MM in the upcoming season, on the court since that point. If the Sixers decide to play it a little more cautiously, they could forego an extension to see how his health holds up and then extend a qualifying offer of $8MM next summer to make him a restricted free agent. Taking that approach would also allow the Sixers to see how Embiid’s talents blend with Fultz and Simmons.

The Sixers would then have the option of matching any offer sheet but would also risk the possibility of Embiid gambling on his future and signing the qualifying offer. That would allow him to be unrestricted the following summer.

A more likely scenario is that the Sixers offer Embiid a max extension, or something very close to it, but insist on contractual protections in case his major injury problems persist. The easiest way to do that would be to purchase disability insurance on Embiid but as ESPN’s Bobby Marks pointed out this spring, the Sixers probably won’t have that option due to his injury history.

Instead, as Marks suggested, Philadelphia could follow the approach the Nets took when they re-signed another injury-riddled center, Brook Lopez. Under the multi-year terms of that deal, Brooklyn’s contractual obligations would have been cut in half during the second year and down to 25% in the third year if Lopez had re-injured his right foot and wound up playing fewer than 60 games and averaging less than 15 minutes. The Sixers and Embiid’s representatives could hash out similar minimums in terms of games and minutes played.

If the Sixers take that route, negotiations on an extension could get very sticky and go down to the wire. Should Embiid agree to such a deal, he’d once again be gambling on his health while allowing the club to hedge its bets. Philadelphia also has to be careful not to risk alienating a player who could be a perennial All-Star for years to come.

That’s what makes Embiid’s potential contract extension one of the league’s most intriguing storylines right through training camp. He is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward Extension Candidate.

Extension Candidate: Andrew Wiggins

July 21st, 2017 at 8:28pm CST by Luke Adams

Three weeks into the 2017/18 NBA league year, no players eligible for rookie scale extensions have signed new deals. However, that doesn’t mean that none of those fourth-year players are engaged in negotiations with their respective teams.

Timberwolves head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau confirmed this week that Minnesota is indeed working on a new contract for Andrew Wiggins, who is one of those 21 players eligible for a rookie scale extension. The No. 1 overall pick from the 2014 draft and a former Rookie of the Year, Wiggins has easily been the highest-scoring player of his draft class since entering the NBA, and is one of the most worthy candidates for a new deal.

While Wiggins is a good bet to sign a contract extension with Minnesota this offseason, the length and overall value of that new deal remain up in the air. Reports this week from The Star Tribune and ESPN rightly note that Wiggins is eligible for a five-year extension worth just shy of $148MM, based on current salary cap projections for the 2018/19 season. However, it’s not clear if Thibodeau himself confirmed that a five-year deal is the probable outcome.

Neither the Star Tribune nor the ESPN report cites any sources saying that the two sides are discussing a five-year deal, and there are no quotes from Thibodeau suggesting as much. ESPN’s report doesn’t even include a byline. Still, while it’s possible that it’s just speculation, the Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda is very plugged in on the Wolves, so if he suggests a five-year extension is in play, it’s certainly been considered by the organization.

If a team wants to sign a player entering the final year of his rookie contract to a five-year extension, that means making him a “Designated Player” and offering him a maximum salary deal. There’s some wiggle room in regard to what constitutes a “maximum” salary for Wiggins — language could be included in the contract that ensures he receives a max worth up to 30% of the cap starting in 2018/19 if he makes an All-NBA team, as opposed to 25% if he doesn’t. But even if Wiggins doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, a max deal would still start at a projected $25.5MM in ’18/19, increasing by 8% annually up to $33.66MM by 2022/23.

That would be a massive investment for a Timberwolves team that also has to consider Karl-Anthony Towns‘ impending payday. And while it’s possible that the franchise will ultimately be willing to roll the dice on that sort of five-year max for Wiggins, I don’t think it’s a lock.

Star players who receive five-year maximum salary rookie scale extensions from their teams often complete those deals very quickly when the new league year gets underway. In recent offseasons, Kyrie Irving (2014), Anthony Davis (2015), and Damian Lillard (2015) all agreed to max extensions before the July moratorium came to an end. If a maximum salary offer is on the table, little negotiating is required, and those deals generally don’t take long to finalize.

Additionally, it’s worth considering that 2016’s rookie scale extension class didn’t include a single five-year, maximum salary deal. C.J. McCollum, Steven Adams, and Rudy Gobert were among the candidates for max extensions who ended up accepting a little less. Most notably, Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a four-year, $100MM contract that fell short of the max. Antetokounmpo is only two months older than Wiggins and is a far more complete player at this point in his career, so the Wolves’ front office may use that deal as a point of comparison in negotiations with Wiggins.

Conversely, Wiggins’ camp should be able to make a pretty strong case that he’s worth a maximum salary investment. Few young players in the NBA are as talented on offense as Wiggins, who has increased his PPG from 16.9 to 20.7 to 23.6 over the course of his three NBA seasons. He even added a more reliable three-point shot to his arsenal in 2016/17, making a respectable 35.6% of his long-distance attempts.

Of course, as good as Wiggins is on offense, his performance in many other areas of the game has been lacking. In particular, his play on defense last season was frustrating — the Timberwolves’ defensive efficiency numbers with Wiggins on the court were substantially worse, and the eye test confirmed that the former No. 1 pick was getting beat far too often.

Additionally, while Wiggins is hardly expected to be the Wolves’ top distributor or rebounder, his lack of production in both areas was noticeable. No player in the NBA played more overall minutes last season than Wiggins, but his 4.0 RPG average was modest for a 6’8″ forward, and his career-high 2.3 APG average was also low for a player with the ball in his hands so often.

Although Wiggins has been a fairly one-dimensional player through the first three years of his career, his offensive ability and his age are both significant factors working in his favor. Even if he never develops into an above-average defender, he looks capable of averaging 25+ PPG, and there simply aren’t many players in the NBA who have the ability to score like that night in and night out.

Wiggins’ age, meanwhile, suggests that his best is yet to come, and a contract extension with the Wolves figures to cover many of his prime years. Wiggins’ new teammate Jimmy Butler serves as a tantalizing point of comparison for the 22-year-old. When he was Wiggins’ age, Butler was in the midst of struggling through a rookie season in which he only played 359 total minutes.

Butler, who didn’t enter the league as fully formed on offense as Wiggins, also didn’t post great rebounding or assist numbers right away — in his first season as a full-time starter, the ex-Bulls forward averaged 4.9 RPG and 2.6 APG in 38.7 MPG. By comparison, last season, in fewer minutes per game, Butler posted 6.2 RPG and 5.5 APG to go along with impressive production on both offense and defense.

Not all players develop like Butler did, but Wiggins has the advantage of working with the same coach the three-time All-Star played under for several seasons. If Thibodeau’s defensive-minded approach rubs off on Wiggins, he’s capable of becoming one of the game’s elite players and earning every dollar of a maximum salary extension.

Right now though, that sort of commitment would have to be made with confidence in Wiggins’ ability to develop into a more complete all-around player, since the current version of the young forward probably isn’t worth a max investment.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Paul George

September 22nd, 2016 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Many of the subjects profiled in our Extension Candidate series are good bets to receive maximum-salary contract offers, but that generally doesn’t stop us from discussing whether those players are actually worth the max, or whether they’ll be willing to accept slightly less in an extension. However, in the case of Paul George, who becomes extension-eligible this Sunday, president Larry Bird took the air out of that debate before it even began.

“I know he don’t want to talk about it all year and I don’t either,” Bird said this week, discussing a potential extension for George. “We want Paul here and we know what it’s going to cost and what it’s going to take. If Paul wants to get a deal done, we will. It’s a max deal. There’s no others, so there’s no use talking about it. If he wants it, he’s got it.”

Even though the Pacers still have George under control for two more seasons (plus a third-year player option), it comes as no surprise that the team wants to lock him up for even longer. And it’s not a surprise that Bird is willing to put a max offer on the table — the 26-year-old is one of the league’s best two-way players, having earned multiple All-NBA and All-Defensive nods over the last few seasons.

He’s also coming off a perhaps his best year as a pro, returning from a broken leg – which cost him nearly all of his 2014/15 season – to set a new career-high in PPG (23.1), while matching previous career bests in APG (4.1) and SPG (1.9). For good measure, George threw in 7.0 RPG and connected on 37.1% of his three-point attempts, converting a career-best 2.6 per game.

In many instances, a player receiving a maximum-salary contract offer from his current team won’t hesitate to accept that deal. But in George’s case, there are several pros and cons worth considering, and we shouldn’t necessarily expect him to get something done with the Pacers as soon as he becomes eligible to sign a new deal this weekend. Let’s break them down…

Why George should sign an extension this fall:

George could get an immediate pay raise if he renegotiates and extends his deal with the Pacers, who should have the cap room necessary to bump his salary up to the max. That would mean an extra $3.8MM+ in 2016/17, with his salaries for the next two years jumping by about the same amount.

If George doesn’t ink an extension, he’ll be locked into his current deal until at least the summer of 2018, at which point he could opt out. In other words, the only way he could increase his salaries for the ’16/17 and ’17/18 league years is to sign a new deal with the Pacers.

In addition to securing some extra money in the short term, George would also position himself for a huge payday when his new extension runs out. The Pacers star currently has six years of NBA experience — if he extends his deal to the maximum allowable four years (adding one year to the three he already has left), it would set him up to reach free agency when he has 10 years of experience under his belt, making him eligible for the highest possible max salary (35% of the cap).

Finally, as someone who has already lost nearly a whole season to a significant leg injury, George is all too familiar with how one play can impact his career. He came back better than ever from that broken leg, but there’s no guarantee that he’d be able to do that again if he suffered another major injury. Renegotiating and extending his current contract would ensure that George adds another $40MM in guaranteed money to his deal for essentially tacking on one extra year. That’s a lot of extra security.

Why George should hold off on signing a new deal:

Unlike James Harden, who signed an extension with the Rockets this summer, George only has six years of NBA experience, rather than seven. That difference is significant. Players with six years of experience or less are only eligible for a maximum salary of $22,116,750 in 2016/17. Players with seven to nine years of experience can sign for up to $26,540,100, as Harden did.

While the single-year difference between those two amounts may not be huge, a player’s subsequent raises are based on that initial figure, so the disparity would affect each of the next four seasons of George’s deal. In other words, it might make more financial sense for him to wait until next July to sign an extension. At that point, he’d be eligible for a higher max and could potentially sign a deal like Russell Westbrook did this year, tacking on just one extra year, getting a raise, and still lining himself up to reach free agency after his 10th season.

Of course, signing any extension with the Pacers would push George’s potential free agency back at least one year, and perhaps that would be a drawback for him as well. He has given no indication that he wants to leave Indiana, but he has not yet had the opportunity to explore the open market since entering the NBA, and perhaps that’s something he wants to experience. Currently, he’s on track to have that chance in 2018, assuming he declines his 2018/19 player option. If George wants to see what’s out there, that’s another good reason not to sign an extension with the Pacers quite yet.

Other factors in play:

George isn’t the only Pacer who is eligible for a veteran extension. Newly-acquired point guard Jeff Teague is also extension-eligible this year, and if the Pacers give George a pay raise, they likely won’t have the space necessary for a new deal for Teague. Still, the team might not have room for a Teague extension anyway, and even if he wants to play with his new point guard for more than just one year, George shouldn’t let that affect his decision on an in-season extension. Indiana will still likely try to re-sign Teague next summer.

A more important factor to consider might be the looming opt-out date for the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. The NBA and the NBPA are expected to negotiate a new agreement, and while that new CBA likely won’t undergo many drastic changes affecting player earnings, it’s possible that a few tweaks will take place, which could affect George’s next deal. Will he want to lock in an extension before that CBA goes into effect, or will he want to roll the dice and wait it out?

Ultimately, the odds of the Pacers signing George to an extension soon will come down to what George wants. Does he want to stay in Indiana as long as possible or does he have interest in checking out the free agent market? Does he want a raise this year, or would he prefer to wait a year to try to maximize his earnings? Will he simply want to get something done sooner rather than later in order to preemptively shut down speculation about his future?

George will become eligible for a new deal on September 25, so it’s possible we’ll get answers to those questions soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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