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2018 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings

September 15th, 2017 at 3:39pm CST by Luke Adams

The list of 2017 free agents continues to dry up, which means it’s time to shift our focus to the group of players on track to reach the free agent market in 2018. We’ve got a full list of those 2018 free-agents-to-be, divided by position and FA type, and a separate list that sorts them by team.

Since we’re still more than nine months away from the 2018 free agent period opening, those lists look a little more star-studded now than they’ll end up being. A handful of top-tier restricted free agents figure to sign extensions with their current teams before opening night in October, and it’s possible that a couple veterans will do so as well — Russell Westbrook, for instance, could ink a Designated Veteran Extension with the Thunder within the next month.

Still, even though not all of the top potential 2018 free agents will reach the open market – and not all of them will change teams if they do – the list includes enough big names that it should still look pretty impressive when next July rolls around.

Below, we’ve taken our first crack at ranking some of the top potential free agents for 2018. While this is our first extended look at 2018’s top free agents, it certainly won’t be our last. Extensions, injuries, breakout years, trades, and poor performances figure to affect these rankings over the course of the 2017/18 season, so we’ll be revisiting the list every month or two to make updates and changes.

Our list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2018 free agent market, rather than how we think they’ll perform on the court for the 2017/18 season. For instance, older players like J.J. Redick and Dwyane Wade have solid short-term value, but didn’t make our top 20 because they’re unlikely to sign huge, long-term deals next summer. In other words, age and long-term value is important.

Here’s the first installment of our 2018 free agent power rankings:

  1. Kevin Durant LeBron James verticalLeBron James, F, Cavaliers (player option): James will be 33 years old when he reaches free agency next summer, which normally would be enough to drop him a couple spots on this list. However, virtually any team in the league would still jump at the chance to give him as many years and dollars as possible next summer, since he has yet to show any real signs of slowing down.
  2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors (player option): Of all the players on this list, Durant is probably the least likely to change teams in 2018. He’s simply going year by year with the Warriors because it makes more sense than locking himself into a long-term deal — that decision allowed him to get a raise this offseason while forgoing his maximum salary to help Golden State re-sign other key players. Nonetheless, he remains on track to technically become a free agent in 2018, so he deserves this spot, if not the one LeBron is currently holding.
  3. Russell Westbrook, G, Thunder (player option): Four players this offseason were eligible for the NBA’s new Designated Veteran super-max contracts — Stephen Curry, James Harden, and John Wall all signed theirs, but Westbrook has yet to put pen to paper. If he does so before opening night, he’ll come off this list and the Thunder will breathe a little easier. If not, let the rumor-mill fun begin.
  4. Paul George, F, Thunder (player option): While the Thunder remain optimistic about locking up Westbrook, they have no misconceptions about extending George before next July. The former Pacers forward has been long rumored to be eyeing a move to the Lakers, but what happens this season in Oklahoma City – not to mention in Los Angeles – could go a long way toward determining if that’s really his best move nine months from now.
  5. Chris Paul, G, Rockets: Paul was a fixture in the top five of our 2017 free agent power rankings, but when an opportunity to be traded to the Rockets arose in June, he unexpectedly opted into the final year of his contract and put off free agency for another year. It sounds like both the Rockets and Paul expect to continue their relationship beyond the 2017/18 season, but we’ve yet to see the veteran point guard play a single game with his new club, so shouldn’t necessarily pencil CP3 into Houston’s lineup for years to come quite yet.
  6. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Pelicans: While the Kings never came out and said it, it appeared the team wasn’t fully comfortable committing to a max (and possibly a super-max) salary for Cousins’ next contract, opting to trade him before having to make that decision. Cousins’ performance this season in New Orleans may have a significant effect on how many other teams will be ready to make such a commitment. Few NBA big men can score like Cousins, who is even developing a reliable outside shot, but he has yet to play for a winner, and if he can’t break through with another superstar teammate (Anthony Davis), that may dampen some potential suitors’ enthusiasm.
  7. Andrew Wiggins, G/F, Timberwolves (RFA): It’s been a somewhat unusual summer for Wiggins, who was involved in several Kyrie Irving-related trade rumors and then fired his agent after receiving a five-year, maximum salary extension offer from the Wolves. Even if he’s at all put off by owner Glen Taylor requesting a face-to-face meeting before making that commitment, Wiggins seems pretty unlikely to turn down an offer of that magnitude, so I expect him to accept it and come off this list at some point soon.Joel Embiid vertical
  8. Joel Embiid, C, Sixers (RFA): No potential 2018 free agent is trickier to evaluate than Embiid, who has famously only appeared in 31 NBA games during his first three years in the league. Of course, Embiid’s health will be a huge factor in determining whether he slips out of the top 10 during the 2017/18 season, or whether he climbs even higher. When he’s on the court, Embiid looks like the type of player who should have his pick of long-term, maximum salary offers at 12:01am on July 1. If he battles injuries once more though, those offers may be for a shorter term or packed with games-played incentives — and if his health issues get even worse, those offers may not be on the table at all.
  9. Avery Bradley, G, Pistons: Bradley isn’t at the same level as guys like Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward, so it makes sense that the Celtics were willing to part with him in order to secure more All-Star caliber talent. But Bradley is a dynamic two-way threat who shot 39.0% from three-point range and plays strong defense. That type of player is extremely valuable in today’s NBA, making him highly coveted on the open market in 2018.
  10. Gary Harris, G, Nuggets (RFA): Harris’ numbers don’t pop off the stat sheet, but neither did Otto Porter‘s, and Harris had a more effective third NBA season than the Wizards forward, who signed a maximum salary offer sheet earlier this year. Having just turned 23, Harris has plenty of room to improve on last year’s 14.9 PPG and .420 3PT%, and could be one of the hottest commodities on the RFA market next summer if the Nuggets don’t extend him this year.

Here’s the rest of our top 20:

  1. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Trail Blazers (RFA)
  2. Jabari Parker, F, Bucks (RFA)
  3. Clint Capela, C, Rockets (RFA)
  4. Isaiah Thomas, G, Cavaliers
  5. DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers (player option)
  6. Zach LaVine, G, Bulls
  7. LaMarcus Aldridge, F/C, Spurs (player option)
  8. Brook Lopez, C, Lakers
  9. Carmelo Anthony, F, Knicks (player option)
  10. Rodney Hood, G, Jazz (RFA)

Disagree strongly with any of our rankings? Feel like we omitted any players that should be in the top 20 (or the top 10)? Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Candidate: Jusuf Nurkic

September 14th, 2017 at 9:01pm CST by Austin Kent

After slowly establishing himself as one of the most efficient, low-usage big men in the NBA, Jusuf Nurkic got his first consistent opportunity to shine when the Nuggets shipped him off to the Trail Blazers partway through the 2016/17 campaign.Jusuf Nurkic vertical

And shine he did.

It’s not Nurkic’s fault that Nikola Jokic caught up to him and surpassed him on Denver’s depth chart last season but, regardless, it was Nurkic’s value that seemed to dissipate over night. Fast forward to the end of the campaign and there’s more confusion than ever as to what the bruising low post threat really is worth in today’s NBA.

One can’t exactly blame the Nuggets for getting impatient and trading Nurkic for pennies on the dollar — there were clearly elements of addition by subtraction at play considering Nurkic’s reported attitude regarding his demotion in Denver. Still, they gave away a possible star to a division rival in exchange for Mason Plumlee, a 26-year-old with a considerably more modest ceiling.

Nurkic, just 23 years old, is entering the fourth year of his career this season and is thus eligible for a rookie extension prior to the October 16 deadline. There’s no consensus, however, about whether the Trail Blazers should rush out to sign him to one.

With few reported updates, other than Blazers general manager Neil Olshey saying that he doesn’t typically talk about ongoing contract negotiations, there’s no clear sense as to whether locking Nurkic in long-term is even a priority of the organization.

On one hand, Nurkic hit the ground running in Portland, averaging 15.2 points and 10.4 rebounds per game over the course of his 20-game stint with the Blazers post-trade.

The inflated numbers aren’t just the byproduct of a particularly motivated young player either, Nurkic’s 18.7 points and 12.8 rebounds per 36 were only slightly higher than the 15.3 points and 12.0 rates he posted through two and a half years with Denver.

So, yes, Nurkic knows how to fill a stat sheet and, even better, his production contributed to tangible success with his new club. In his taste of action with Portland, the Blazers went 14-6. As Joe Freeman of the Oregonian wrote at the time, the club soared with Nurkic in the lineup, his presence solidifying the squad’s offerings on both ends of the court.

Alas, the sudden arrival of the dominant young big man was, in at least one sense, too good to be true. In late March, Nurkic fractured his right leg and missed the remainder of the 2016/17 season, including the club’s four-game sweep at the hands of the eventual NBA champion Warriors.

Whether the non-displaced fibular fracture was the result of a seven-footer in supposedly sub-optimal condition being suddenly thrust into the heaviest workload of his career or an omen of things to come, the fact that he missed the last chunk of the season is a concern.

While Nurkic’s injury isn’t as catastrophic as the words “out for the remainder of the season” may seem – a similar issue set Steve Nash back a total of 24 games… at age 38 – this isn’t Nurkic’s first significant injury and that’s something that could impact whether the Blazers do or do not offer him a sizable contract earlier than they need to.

If Nurkic can return to the court healthy and put forth 70-plus games at the same standard as last season, it’s hard to imagine him having any trouble finding suitors as a restricted free agent next summer. In that regard, locking him in now could potentially save the organization money in the long run.

The risk, however, may not be worth it.

A more pragmatic approach would be to wait for Nurkic’s borderline cult-like following to normalize over the course of a full season. Then with a larger sample size on which to base expectations, Olshey and company could decide whether or not that’s a direction they want to take the franchise.

Worst case scenario, Nurkic struggles to stay on the court next season and Portland walks away unscathed. Best case scenario, Nurkic Fever continues to sweep the Pacific Northwest and the Blazers are socially obligated to max out a 24-year-old franchise talent that already thrives with the teams existing star backcourt just as they hit their respective primes.

There are worse fevers to succumb to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

September 14th, 2017 at 11:51am CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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15 Two-Way Contract Slots Remain Open

September 13th, 2017 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

With NBA training camps just a couple weeks away, most teams are putting the finishing touches on their respective rosters. In addition to having secured at least a dozen players on guaranteed contracts and perhaps a handful of camp invitees, each NBA club has also signed at least one player to a two-way contract.

As we explain in depth in our FAQ, two-way contracts – a new concept under the league’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement – allow NBA teams to carry two extra players in addition to the 15 on their regular season roster. These players spend most of their time with the club’s G League affiliate, but are eligible to join the NBA roster for up to 45 days per season, and remain under team control — they can’t be poached by rival franchises.

Teams have been signing players to two-way contracts since July, so we’re starting to get a better idea of what players on those deals will look like — some are late second-round draft picks; some are undrafted rookies; others are G League or international veterans, or former NBA players looking to work their way back into the league.

Every NBA club has signed at least one player to a two-way deal, but only half of those 30 clubs have filled both spots, meaning that there are still 15 two-way openings around the league. With the help of our two-way tracker, here’s a breakdown of the teams that still have an open two-way slot:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Houston Rockets
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Miami Heat
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New York Knicks
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Orlando Magic
  • Philadelphia 76ers
  • Portland Trail Blazers

While the Suns and Jazz technically could be included on this list, they’ve reportedly reached agreements – with Alec Peters and Nate Wolters, respectively – to fill their second two-way slots, so unless those deals unexpectedly fall through, they won’t have any openings.

Although some of these two-way openings figure to be filled in advance of training camp, many of the clubs listed above have signed camp invitees to Exhibit 10 contracts, which can later be converted into two-way deals. So rather than signing someone new and waiving a camp invitee, a handful of teams may simply convert an Exhibit 10 contract to a two-way contract before the regular season begins.

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2019 NBA Free Agents

September 13th, 2017 at 10:02am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors’ up-to-date list of current free agents is below. Each player’s 2019 age is noted in parentheses.

These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2018/19 season. They either finished the ’18/19 season on an NBA roster or were unsigned at season’s end, but appeared in at least 10 games. A handful of noteworthy former players who are reportedly generating NBA interest also appear in the list.

This list will continue to be updated throughout the 2019/20 season, so be sure to use it as an ongoing point of reference. You’ll be able to access this list anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Free Agent Lists” section of our mobile menu. If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us.

Updated 7-20-20 (10:50am CT)

Unrestricted Free Agents

Point Guards

Shooting Guards

Small Forwards

Power Forwards

Centers

Restricted Free Agents

There are no restricted free agents left on the market.

Player Options

There are no player option decisions remaining. All player option decisions for the 2019/20 season can be found right here.

Team Options

There are no team option decisions remaining. All team option decisions for the 2019/20 season can be found right here.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

The list of players who have non-guaranteed salaries for 2019/20 can be found right here.

Contract information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Five Teams Carrying Just 12 Guaranteed Contracts

September 12th, 2017 at 6:02pm CST by Luke Adams

As our list of offseason roster counts shows, most NBA teams currently have at least 13 players on guaranteed salaries on their respective rosters, with many teams carrying 14 or 15 such players. However, there are a handful of clubs that haven’t reached that threshold, creating some potential intrigue about what their eventual 15-man regular season rosters will look like.

Of course, not every team needs to carry the maximum 15 players, but every club must have at least 14, so the teams with 12 or fewer guaranteed salaries on their books right now will have more than just those players on their roster for opening night.

Here’s a breakdown of the five teams currently carrying 12 players on guaranteed contracts:

Dallas Mavericks
Fully guaranteed salaries: 12
Non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries: 7

With 19 players on NBA contracts and one two-way player, the Mavs have a full roster, but only 12 of those players have fully guaranteed deals. Still, there may not be many surprises when Dallas eventually makes its cuts for the regular season. Devin Harris and Dorian Finney-Smith don’t have full guarantees, but I wouldn’t expect either player to be waived.

If the Mavs carry 15 players, I’d give Jeff Withey the upper hand for the final roster spot, though Maalik Wayns, P.J. Dozier, Gian Clavell, and Brandon Ashley are also in the mix.

Houston Rockets
Fully guaranteed salaries: 12
Non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries: 5

The Rockets stockpiled players on non-guaranteed contracts this offseason for trade purposes, but haven’t ended up dealing most of them. Troy Williams has a significant partial guarantee and should make the team’s opening night roster, but the final two roster spots could be up for grabs. Tim Quarterman, Shawn Long, Isaiah Taylor, and Cameron Oliver are candidates, and I might give the latter two the edge, since they signed outright with the Rockets, rather than arriving as trade pieces.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Fully guaranteed salaries: 12
Non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries: 1

No team was carrying fewer players on NBA contracts entering Tuesday than the Timberwolves, who have indicated for about two months that they intend to add three more veterans, likely on guaranteed deals. Shabazz Muhammad became the first of the three, reaching an agreement today to return to the club and bringing the club’s total guaranteed salary count to 12. If the Wolves add two more vets, as planned, players like Dante Cunningham, Anthony Morrow, and Jason Terry would be candidates to sign.

If Minnesota doesn’t get up to 14 guaranteed contracts, players like Marcus Georges-Hunt and Melo Trimble (who reportedly agreed to sign with the club) could compete for roster spots.

Philadelphia 76ers
Fully guaranteed salaries: 12
Non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries: 4

While a non-guaranteed salary would mean a precarious grip on a roster spot for most players, that’s not the case for three Sixers with non-guaranteed deals — Robert Covington, Richaun Holmes, and T.J. McConnell will eventually have their contracts guaranteed, barring some unexpected turn. Adding those three players to the 12 Sixers with fully guaranteed contracts already would fill up the 15-man regular season roster, leaving James Blackmon Jr. and any other camp invitees as the odd men out.

Phoenix Suns
Fully guaranteed salaries: 12
Non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries: 2

The Suns currently only have 12 players with fully guaranteed salaries, but a handful of incumbent players may end up filling out the rest of the roster. Alex Len remains a restricted free agent, and seems like a good bet to return to Phoenix, which would bring the team’s roster count to 13. Derrick Jones and Elijah Millsap may also have an inside track on roster spots, having spent time with the franchise last season. Peter Jok – who has a reported agreement with Phoenix – and any other camp invitees could push for consideration with a strong preseason, however.

Note: The New Orleans Pelicans technically have just 12 guaranteed salaries on their books at the moment, but reached an agreement on Monday with Tony Allen, whose deal will increase the club’s guaranteed contract count to 13.

Contract information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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2017/18 NBA Salary Guarantee Dates

September 11th, 2017 at 12:34pm CST by Luke Adams

While the majority of players on NBA rosters currently have fully guaranteed salaries for the 2017/18 season, there are many whose contracts are still non-guaranteed or only have a partial guarantee. We published a post last week dedicated to keeping tabs on those non-guaranteed players, sorting them by team.

By default, NBA contracts all become fully guaranteed on January 10 every year, meaning that a team must waive a non-guaranteed player by the end of the business day on January 7 to ensure he clears waivers before January 10. That way, his full-season salary won’t count against that team’s cap.

However, many players with non-guaranteed salaries have language in their contracts that ensures their guarantee deadline arrives early. We saw that over the summer, as many players with guarantee dates in June, July, or August were either waived in advance of those deadlines or had their 2017/18 salaries become guaranteed.

There are many more players with guarantee dates due in the coming weeks or months, so we’ll use the space below to track those deadlines and decisions. When a deadline date passes, we’ll note below if that player was waived. If he remained on the roster, receiving his guarantee, that’s noted with a ✔️ symbol.

We’re relying on salary information from Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders and Bobby Marks of ESPN, who each do an outstanding job of providing detailed contract info. However, there are a handful of discrepancies between the details they’ve provided, so we’ve noted those cases below — we’ll consider those details tentative for now.

Here’s the full upcoming salary guarantee calendar:

September 15

  • Eric Moreland (Pistons): Guarantee increases from $500,000 to $750,000. (✔️)

September 26

October 15

October 16

  • Troy Williams (Rockets): Guarantee increases from $1,312,611 to $1,471,382 (fully guaranteed). (✔️)

October 17

October 18

  • Khem Birch (Magic): Guarantee increases from $25,000 to $407,808. (✔️)
  • Mario Chalmers (Grizzlies): Guarantee increases from $25,000 to $2,106,470 (fully guaranteed). (✔️)
    • Note: Chalmers’ fully guaranteed salary will count for $1,471,382 against cap.
  • Marcus Georges-Hunt (Timberwolves): Guarantee increases from $0 to $275,000. (✔️)
  • Rodney McGruder (Heat): Guarantee increases from $452,625 to $1,312,611 (fully guaranteed). (✔️)
  • Eric Moreland (Pistons): Guarantee increases from $750,000 to $1,000,000. (✔️)
  • Okaro White (Heat): Guarantee increases from $452,624 to $1,312,611 (fully guaranteed). (✔️)

October 19

October 31

November 10

  • Jordan Crawford (Pelicans): Guarantee increases from $250,000 to $750,000. (Waived)
    • Note: Based on Marks’ data. Pincus had Crawford’s guarantee increasing from $250,000 to $500,000.

December 5

  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks): Guarantee increases from $150,000 to $200,000. (✔️)

December 15

  • Luke Babbitt (Hawks): Guarantee increases from $987,080 to $1,974,159 (fully guaranteed). (✔️)
    • Note: Babbitt’s fully guaranteed salary will count for $1,471,382 against cap.

January 7

Contract information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2017 Hoops Rumors Retro Series

September 10th, 2017 at 10:54pm CST by Austin Kent

Ever get tired of the year 2017 and wish that you could travel back to a simpler time when athletes only made nine-digits and the NBA MVP didn’t dress like Mayim Bialik in Blossom?

With our Hoops Rumors Retro series you can.

Earlier this year we started experimenting with the idea of bringing back a transaction retrospective that shed a light on significant roster moves that helped shape the NBA landscape. In January, for example, I wrote about the mid-season trade that brought Dikembe Mutombo to a scary Sixers team in 2001 and another that sent Gary Payton to Milwaukee, inspiring half a season’s worth of unnatural photo ops in Bucks purple.

We were pleased with the reception that the pieces got at the time and have decided to bring them back into our rotation. I can’t be the only one, after all, who spent late August tweeting out pictures of Patrick Ewing in a Magic jersey while NBA Twitter and the blogosphere at large channeled their attention on the Isaiah Thomas–Kyrie Irving swap.

The truth is, the NBA is awesome. But it’s not just awesome now — it’s always been awesome. The only difference is the influx of content on the internet and how readily available everything is 24/7. How would the hoops world of 20, even 15 years ago, look through the lens of modern media? Imagine David Robinson‘s Instagram feed (trust me, it’s just colorized images of historic sea vessels) or Rik Smits‘ undoubtedly risqué Snapchat stories.

Back in the nineties, we didn’t have social media news or, sadly, even Hoops Rumors to whet our appetite for basketball news but that didn’t stop kids around the world from absorbing the game in any way that they could, even if that meant inferring the Stephon Marbury–Sam Cassell trade from a pack of basketball cards months after the fact because the last thing that they would ever broadcast on basic Canadian cable was a New Jersey Nets game circa 1999. What? No. Who’s bitter? You’re bitter.

Consider Hoops Rumors Retro, then, a series that pays homage to the landmark moments of yesteryear that never got the full internet treatment. It may have been a simpler time with less endless noise and narcissistic hot takes, sure, but think of the hours-long Basketball Reference deep dives we’d be losing. Or the unexpected Woj Bombs. Heck, if Alonzo Mourning ever got up on stage and started dancing at a Digital Underground concert, would anybody outside of the venue even know about it?

It’s almost enough to give these crazy kids a pass for fraternizing with their supposed division rivals on the red carpet of a fashion show.

Almost.

Below is a list of the Hoops Rumors Retro pieces we’ve run this year. Including the latest from just last week. If you have any suggestions for particularly memorable moments that you’d like to see brought to life in a feature, let us know in the comments below or by harassing me on Twitter.

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Extension Candidate: Clint Capela

September 10th, 2017 at 9:14pm CST by Austin Kent

The Rockets can be forgiven for not coming to terms on a contract extension with 23-year-old Clint Capela so far this offseason, but despite the fact that the franchise is undergoing a change in ownership, the deadline for locking in fourth year players looms.Clint Capela vertical

While Capela has been regarded as a low-key game-changer for Houston ever since a strong showing in the 2015 postseason, the steady strides that he’s made ever since have put him firmly on the fringe of the mainstream hoops community’s radar.

In 65 games for the Rockets last season, including 59 starts, Capela averaged 12.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Those are per-minute production rates on par with some of the best versatile big men in the game. That the 6’10” center did so while shooting a staggering 64.3% from the floor puts him in a class of his own.

Houston will welcome Chris Paul this fall, and it’s hard to imagine Capela’s offense will do anything but continue to expand, considering the legendary playmaker’s ability to work with athletic big men like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan.

Of course whether or not Capela has made a case for an extension is only half the battle. The team will need to justify spending the money, something that’s not necessarily a given considering that the Rockets can so easily obliterate the luxury tax line in the coming years if they’re not careful.

Per Kevin Pelton of ESPN (via ABC), Houston will presumably sign Paul to a max contract next summer. That, paired with James Harden‘s monster extension, will give the Rockets over $80MM in committed salary for their backcourt alone.

Throw in the fact that Houston will commit over $40MM to the trio of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker through 2019/20 and it’s not hard to forecast major luxury tax bills in new owner Tilman Fertitta‘s future.

Pelton projects that Capela and fellow free agent-to-be Trevor Ariza could seek a combined $20MM in salary (a figure that Capela alone could draw, if you ask me) and suddenly Houston runs the risk of annihilating the luxury tax line by nearly $20MM come 2019/20.

The Rockets, of course, could choose to let Ariza walk in the hopes of the recently acquired Tucker filling the role of scrappy perimeter defender, but even that scenario is complicated by the fact that Ariza and Paul have a close enough friendship to have supposedly influenced the trade that brought Paul over from the Clippers in the first place.

As Pelton suggests, the Rockets could make life considerably easier for themselves by finding a taker for the $60MM owed to Anderson through 2019/20. Doing so won’t be easy though.

If Houston has a plan in place, it’s not one that’s been broadcast at this point in the offseason. In May, we discussed a rather innocuous quote from general manager Daryl Morey suggesting that it would be “normal business” to discuss an extension, but all has been silent since.

If the Rockets choose to hold off on extending Capela, the big man would become a restricted free agent next summer. While the 2018 offseason is projected to be slightly tamer than the ones we’ve seen over the past two years, it’s hard to imagine Capela’s value going anywhere but up, relative to where it is currently.

Relative, however, is the operative term. Should the parties decide to go that route, Capela will look to compete with potential free agent centers like Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic and Nerlens Noel, all promising anchors for teams looking to build youthful cores at a time when available cap room, a bountiful resource in 2016 and 2017, normalizes.

So sure, at the end of the day, the Rockets may be able to sit tight on Capela in hopes of retaining him at a lower rate via restricted free agency next summer but doing so would run the risk of letting a team like the Nets extend to him a poison pill offer sheet that Houston would be pressured to match, lest they let a significant part of their core walk just in time for the last few great years Paul will have left in the tank.

Perhaps the best bet for the Rockets when the dust settles from the ownership transition, then, is to square things away with Capela at a generous rate prior to the contract extension deadline on October 16 and then challenge Morey with the task of making the numbers work before Paul’s and Harden’s annual salaries start escalating dramatically after next season.

Regardless, just how the team handles the Capela contract could really shed light on Fertitta’s mentality with his new franchise. While it’s only my speculation, it seems logical enough to infer that an individual who just spent $2.2B on a sports franchise (well over the projected value) wouldn’t be opposed to shelling out extra luxury tax money to preserve one of the most talented cores of NBA players outside of the Bay Area.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Weekly Mailbag: 9/4/17 – 9/10/17

September 10th, 2017 at 12:31pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Why did Houston Rockets owner Leslie Alexander lure Chris Paul to create a super team with James Harden only to sell the team two months later? — Greg Dizon

When Alexander announced that the team was for sale in July, the decision seemed to come out of nowhere. Team president Tad Brown said the 73-year-old didn’t have any health problems, but the day-to-day responsibilities of owning a franchise “can wear on you after so many decades.” Alexander owned the team for 24 years and said he has other passions he wants to pursue. Profit was undoubtedly another motivating factor as Alexander bought the team for $85MM in 1993 and sold it for a record $2.2B. The presence of an All-Star backcourt in Harden and Paul no doubt boosted that price a little bit.

What will the Bucks do with Jabari Parker? — Dan Vachalek, via Twitter

There was a report this week that Milwaukee has started extension talks with the 22-year-old forward, but circumstances make it seem doubtful anything will get done before the October 16 deadline. Parker is believed to be asking for a five-year maximum-salary extension, but the situation is complicated by his injury status. He is recovering from the second ACL tear of his career and won’t play again until sometime in 2018. Parker has been productive when healthy, averaging 20.1 points and 6.2 rebounds in 51 games last season, but the injuries are a concern. The Bucks will probably let him become a restricted free agent and try to work out a long-term deal next summer.

How many games this year will Celtics get a combined 50 points from Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward? — bmitch, via Twitter

Any number would just be a guess and it could be affected by injuries or other factors, but it’s clear that Irving and Hayward will be the top two options in Boston’s offense. The Celtics traded away their three leading scorers from last season in Isaiah Thomas (28.9 points per game), Avery Bradley (16.3) and Jae Crowder (13.9) and lost Kelly Olynyk (9.0) and Amir Johnson (6.5) to free agency. That’s a lot of points to replace. It’s hard to say how many times they’ll reach 50 together, but Irving and Hayward will be the leaders of the offense for as long as they’re both in Boston.

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