Weekly Mailbag: 9/18/17 – 9/24/17
We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.
With Carmelo Anthony joining Russell Westbrook and Paul George at OKC, forming their version of a super team, what do you think are their chances of beating the Warriors or even winning the NBA championship this season? — Greg Dizon
Having three [or more] stars has become the path to an NBA title in recent years, so obviously that’s what the Thunder have in mind. The Warriors are obviously the toughest obstacle, but there are many others in an increasingly loaded Western Conference. The Rockets won 55 games last season and added Chris Paul. The Spurs won 61 games and added Rudy Gay. The Nuggets, Timberwolves and Pelicans all made moves to get better. Getting through the West won’t be easy, even with three great scoring options in Anthony, Westbrook and George. Then there’s the question of whether Anthony is still an elite player. Don’t forget that ESPN ranked him 64th in this year’s top 100 list, and he’s coming off four straight non-playoff seasons in a weak Eastern Conference. In a seven-game series with the Warriors, maybe the Thunder have the firepower to make it interesting, but they’ll have to make some moves to improve defensively to give themselves a fighting chance.
Who gets the ball when the game is on the line? — Boozybua, via Twitter
That’s one of the first questions to work out in Oklahoma City, just as it was for the Warriors when Kevin Durant arrived and for the Heat when LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade. Westbrook, George and Anthony are all used to being their team’s primary scorer and taking the important shots. Sometimes it takes a few months for everyone to get comfortable with their roles, but the best guess here is that the ball still belongs to the MVP. Westbrook will dictate play, not just in crunch time but whenever he’s on the floor, with George and Anthony settling into complementary roles.
How can the Knicks get rid of Joakim Noah’s contract? That’s the only bad situation they have now. Any realistic options? — Scottie2hottie, via Twitter
The Knicks will be paying nearly $38MM this season for the center combination of Noah and Enes Kanter, while Willy Hernangomez and Kyle O’Quinn might be better options. Noah is part of the Phil Jackson legacy, with $55MM still due over the next three seasons and the perception that he is done as a productive player at age 32. As we outlined earlier today, the Knicks could use the stretch provision, although they missed the deadline for this season, so it would only help with the final two years of the deal. Noah’s contract probably makes him untradable unless the Knicks are willing to take on an equally bad arrangement in return.
2017 Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Lakers
Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2017 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2017/18 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Los Angeles Lakers.
Signings:
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: One year, $17.746MM.
- Tyler Ennis: Two years, minimum salary. Second year non-guaranteed.
- Andrew Bogut: One year, minimum salary. Partially guaranteed ($50K).
- Alex Caruso: Two-way contract. One year.
Camp invitees:
- V.J. Beachem: One year, minimum salary. $50K guaranteed.
- Vander Blue: One year, minimum salary. $50K guaranteed.
- Briante Weber: One year, minimum salary. $50K guaranteed.
- Stephen Zimmerman: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
Trades:
- Acquired Brook Lopez and the draft rights to Kyle Kuzma (No. 27 pick) from the Nets in exchange for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov.
- Acquired the draft rights to Josh Hart (No. 30 pick) and the draft rights to Thomas Bryant (No. 42 pick) from the Jazz in exchange for the draft rights to Tony Bradley (No. 28 pick).
Draft picks:
- 1-2: Lonzo Ball — Signed to rookie contract.
- 1-27: Kyle Kuzma — Signed to rookie contract.
- 1-30: Josh Hart — Signed to rookie contract.
- 2-42: Thomas Bryant — Signed to two-year, minimum salary contract. Second year non-guaranteed.
Departing players:
- Tarik Black
- Timofey Mozgov
- David Nwaba (waived)
- Thomas Robinson
- D’Angelo Russell
- Metta World Peace
- Nick Young
Other offseason news:
- Fined $500K for tampering with Pacers/Paul George.
- Re-branded G-League affiliate. Formerly known as Los Angeles D-Fenders, franchise is now South Bay Lakers.
Salary cap situation:
- Started under the cap and used all cap space. Currently carrying approximately $101MM in guaranteed salary. Full room exception ($4.328MM) still available.
Check out the Los Angeles Lakers’ full roster and depth chart at RosterResource.com.
Story of the summer:
Magic Johnson entered his first offseason as the Lakers’ president of basketball operations with a clear objective: set the stage for a star-studded 2018 free agency.
Johnson hired former player agent Rob Pelinkia as the team’s GM, something that may help with recruiting big names to the Lakers’ organization. He refrained from adding substantial salary to the future books in free agency, a mistake of the previous regime. And he cleared long-term salary in the D’Angelo Russell trade by attaching Timofey Mozgov to the former No. 2 overall pick in a deal that yielded Brook Lopez and the No. 27 overall pick in the 2017 draft (Kyle Kuzma) from the Nets.
If the organization makes a few smaller-scale moves at some point, such as moving Jordan Clarkson or other players on manageable contracts, it will have the ability to add multiple max-salary free agents next offseason. Maintaining flexibility trumped the desire to contend immediately and with Johnson running the show, the strategy could easily be lauded as soon as next July.
Hoops Rumors Originals: 9/16/17 – 9/23/17
Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:
- Luke Adams examined Five Lingering Offseason Questions before the opening of training camps.
- We provided a list of the teams that are now limited to just minimum contract offers.
- Our weekly mailbag answered questions on LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony and Nikola Mirotic.
- Our Contract Extension Tracker is the best way to follow all the players who are eligible to receive extensions this fall.
- We looked at the case for the Lakers’ Julius Randle in our Extension Candidate Series.
- Our Offseason in Review series examined the Mavericks and Magic.
- Our Community Shootarounds discussed which non-playoff teams from last year are ready to make the postseason and who are the best available free agents.
- We conducted polls for the win totals of the Jazz, Sixers, Blazers, Hornets, Heat, and Clippers, respectively.
- If you don’t have it already, be sure to download the Trade Rumors app for iOS/Android and give it a try.
Extension Candidate: Julius Randle
For the third straight season, Julius Randle made progress establishing himself as a significant factor in the Lakers’ frontcourt. However, that progress won’t impact whether or not the 22-year-old inks a contract extension prior to the October 16th deadline.
No, Randle’s fate – perhaps more than any other player headed into the final year of a rookie contract – is tied to the lofty ambitions of the franchise that he plays for.
Put simply, the Lakers are all-in on preserving cap space for the 2018 free agency period — a period in which they’ll inevitably pursue LeBron James and Paul George. Or LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. Or LeBron James and any other star player who opts to test the waters next summer, it really just depends on which barber you ask.
This isn’t a knock on Randle. It’s a reality. The same reality that saw L.A. ship D’Angelo Russell out of town just to alleviate the club’s $16MM obligation to Timofey Mozgov in 2018/19.
Signing Randle to any extension in the realm of what he would justifiably qualify for before the October deadline would unnecessarily eat into the room that the Lakers would need in order to make a big, nay, massive splash next offseason. As it stands, Los Angeles has just under $54MM on their books for the 2018/19 season and you can bet the farm that they club will do anything within reason to unload Luol Deng‘s 18MM as soon as conceivably possible.
Of course, the Lakers can always circle back to Randle as a restricted free agent once they have a better idea of how their 2018 offseason will play out, but that obviously comes with inherent risk. It’s not inconceivable that Randle will raise his value this season and coax an aggressive offer sheet out of a team with cap space to burn.
So the question isn’t whether Randle will earn a contract extension in the next month – that almost certainly won’t happen – but rather if his play thus far has warranted it.
In his two full seasons with the Lakers, Randle has averaged just under a double double, putting up 12.2 PPG and 9.4 RPG while flashing impressive vision for a post player and a handle reminiscent of a slightly less polished Blake Griffin (that’s still a good thing).
Randle’s per-36 numbers ooze Zach Randolph-esque potential and the fact that he’s a productive contributor who doesn’t require much of the spotlight bodes well for a Lakers team that has every intention of filling the lineup around him with stars.
Expect Randle, already a competent third or fourth option, to take yet another step forward in 2017/18. The power forward has committed to improving his physical conditioning this summer and will now play alongside Lonzo Ball, one of the most exciting playmakers to come into the league in years.
We saw excellent rebound and assist rates out of Randle last season, as well as a modest 13.2 points per contest. That last figure could jump up to a more headline-worthy level, conveniently ahead of July 2018, when he hits the market for the first time.
If the pending restricted free agent drives his value to a level that precludes Los Angeles from retaining him, then that’s simply a consequence of the Lakers’ own ambition.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2017 Offseason In Review: Orlando Magic
Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2017 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2017/18 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Orlando Magic.
Signings:
- Jonathon Simmons: Three years, $18MM. Third year partially guaranteed ($1MM).
- Shelvin Mack: Two years, $12MM. Second year non-guaranteed.
- Arron Afflalo: One year, minimum salary.
- Marreese Speights: One year, minimum salary.
- Adreian Payne: Two-way contract. One year.
Camp invitees:
- Khem Birch: Two years, minimum salary. $25K guaranteed.
- Troy Caupain: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- Kalin Lucas: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- Damjan Rudez: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- Rodney Purvis: Reported agreement not yet finalized.
Trades:
- Acquired a 2020 first-round pick (Thunder; top-20 protected) and a 2020 second-round pick (less favorable of Knicks’ and Nets’ picks) from the Sixers in exchange for the draft rights to Anzejs Pasecniks (No. 25 pick).
- Acquired a 2019 second-round pick (Nets) from the Grizzlies in exchange for the draft rights to Ivan Rabb (No. 35 pick).
Draft picks:
- 1-6: Jonathan Isaac — Signed to rookie contract.
- 2-33: Wesley Iwundu — Signed to three-year, $4.047MM contract. Third-year team option.
Departing players:
- Patricio Garino (waived)
- Marcus Georges-Hunt (waived)
- Jeff Green
- Jodie Meeks
- C.J. Watson (waived)
- Stephen Zimmerman (waived)
Other offseason news:
- Fired general manager Rob Hennigan.
- Hired Jeff Weltman as president of basketball operations; sent 2018 second-round pick to Raptors as compensation.
- Hired John Hammond as general manager.
- Hired Randy Wittman as coaching consultant.
- Will have new G League affiliate (Lakeland Magic).
Salary cap situation:
- Essentially capped out (carrying approximately $98MM in guaranteed salary), but full room exception ($4.328MM) still available.
Check out the Orlando Magic’s full roster and depth chart at RosterResource.com.
Story of the summer:
No NBA teams replaced head coaches this offseason, but Orlando was one of several clubs to make changes to its basketball operations department. The Magic had been patient with general manager Rob Hennigan, watching as he made incremental improvements over the course of his first four years with the franchise, increasing the club’s win total from 20 to 23 to 25 to 35. After a series of major moves failed to pan out, however, the Magic slipped back to 29-53 in 2016/17.
With no playoff berths or star players to show for five years of work in Orlando – and an embarrassing dry-erase board incident fresh in everyone’s mind – Hennigan was a goner. To replace him, the Magic brought in Raptors executive Jeff Weltman to run the basketball operations department, and poached John Hammond from the Bucks to become their new GM.
In his fifth year, Hennigan clearly felt the pressure to make win-now moves, which resulted in overpays for players like Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. The new management group won’t be under the same sort of pressure — this roster isn’t capable of legit contention in the short term, which means Weltman and Hammond can be patient and focus on longer-term moves.
Both of the Magic’s new executives showed a willingness in their old jobs to gamble on young, athletic prospects with high upside. So far in Orlando, they’ve exhibited that same tendency. Not all of those moves will pan out, but with the Magic still going through a rebuild, Weltman and Hammond will likely be happy to roll the dice on a few Bruno Caboclos if the process eventually leads them to a Giannis Antetokounmpo.
NBA Teams That Can’t Offer More Than The Minimum
At this point in the NBA offseason, most free agents who remain on the open market will have to settle for minimum salary contracts, if they receive an NBA offer at all.
There are some exceptions, particularly on the restricted free agent market, where Mason Plumlee just signed a three-year, $41MM deal with the Nuggets. Within the last week or two though, we’ve seen top remaining unrestricted free agents like Shabazz Muhammad, Tony Allen, and Andrew Bogut settle for minimum salary contracts.
That’s good news for several teams who have used all their available cap room and/or exceptions and can only offer minimum salary contracts for the rest of the 2017/18 league year. They won’t necessarily be at a disadvantage when it comes to signing free agents if those players aren’t being offered more than the minimum by teams with the means to do so.
In some cases though, an inability to offer more than the minimum can handicap a team. Dante Cunningham‘s free agent decision this week reflects this — according to multiple reports, the deal Cunningham agreed to with the Pelicans is actually worth $2.3MM, which is more than his minimum salary of $2.1MM. While we haven’t seen the official terms of Cunningham’s new contract yet, it’s possible that the $200K difference was one reason Cunningham chose New Orleans over a suitor like the Timberwolves, who could only offer the minimum.
Teams with the flexibility to offer more than the minimum could also benefit later in the NBA season. For instance, if Dwyane Wade negotiates a buyout with the Bulls and considers which team to join as a free agent, the fact that the Heat have retained their $4.328MM room exception could be a factor — it would allow Miami to make a stronger offer than the Cavs could.
With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of the teams that currently don’t have the ability to offer more than the minimum salary, which is $815,615 for a first-year player:
- Boston Celtics
- Detroit Pistons
- Golden State Warriors
- Houston Rockets: $350 of mid-level exception available
- Los Angeles Clippers: $774,770 of mid-level exception available
- Memphis Grizzlies: $1,440,385 of mid-level exception available, but will use at least $815,615 to sign Ivan Rabb.
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New York Knicks
- Oklahoma City Thunder
Meanwhile, the following teams have less than $3.29MM (the value of the bi-annual exception) to offer to free agents:
- Cleveland Cavaliers: $2,549,143 of taxpayer mid-level exception available
- Utah Jazz: $1,128,000 of room exception available
- Washington Wizards: $1,902,000 of taxpayer mid-level exception available
Of course, just because a team has an exception available, that doesn’t mean the club will be eager to use it. Teams like the Bucks or Pelicans, for instance, still have various MLE and BAE exception money available, but their proximity to the luxury tax threshold will make them reluctant to offer more than the minimum salary to anyone the rest of the way.
For a full breakdown of how teams have used their mid-level, room, and bi-annual exceptions for the 2017/18 league year, be sure to check out our MLE tracker and BAE tracker.
2017 Offseason In Review: Dallas Mavericks
Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2017 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2017/18 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Dallas Mavericks.
Signings:
- Dirk Nowitzki: Two years, $10MM. Second-year team option.
- Nerlens Noel: One year, $4.188MM. Signed qualifying offer.
- Jeff Withey: Two years, minimum salary. First year partially guaranteed ($350K).
- Maxi Kleber: Two years, minimum salary. First year fully guaranteed.
- Johnathan Motley: Two-way contract. Two years, $50K guaranteed in each season.
Camp invitees:
- Brandon Ashley: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- Gian Clavell: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- P.J. Dozier: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
- Maalik Wayns: One year, minimum salary. Exhibits nine and 10.
Trades:
- Acquired cash ($175K) from the Rockets for DeAndre Liggins.
- Acquired cash from the Rockets for Jarrod Uthoff.
- Acquired Josh McRoberts, cash ($5.1MM), and a 2023 second-round pick from the Heat in exchange for A.J. Hammons.
Draft picks:
- 1-9: Dennis Smith Jr. — Signed to rookie contract.
Departing players:
- Nicolas Brussino (waived)
- A.J. Hammons
- DeAndre Liggins
- Jarrod Uthoff
Salary cap situation:
- Operating as an over-the-cap team with full mid-level ($8.406MM) and bi-annual ($3.29MM) exceptions available.
- Can create up to approximately $18MM in cap room by renouncing exceptions and waiving non-guaranteed contracts.
Check out the Dallas Mavericks’ roster and depth chart at RosterResource.com.
Story of the summer:
The Mavericks finished with a losing record last season for the first time since the 1999/2000 campaign, and the team’s 33-49 mark, good for 11th place in the Western Conference, appeared to serve as a wake-up call.
Having been a perennial player for big-money free agents in recent years, the Mavericks sat out the summer fun in 2017, rightly recognizing that they weren’t just a player or two from title contention. When the Mavs won the championship in 2011, they were one of several teams that had a viable shot at a title, but the dominance of the present-day Warriors likely helped Mark Cuban and company realize that it would require more than just a little good fortune in the postseason to return to the NBA Finals.
Rebuilding certainly wasn’t the Mavs’ preference — the club had prioritized win-now moves over the last several years in the hopes of getting Dirk Nowitzki a shot at one last title. But even with the clock running out on Nowitzki’s playing career, the time was right for a rebuild in Dallas, as the team entered the offseason with a top-10 draft pick in hand for the first time in nearly two decades. With many of their conference rivals loading up to make a run at Golden State, the Mavs made a $5MM guarantee for Nowitzki their biggest free agent expenditure of the summer.
2017 NBA Contract Extension Tracker
So far this offseason, we’ve been keeping close tabs on the way teams are acquiring new players, tracking free agent signings, draft pick signings, draft-and-stash deals, two-way contracts, and trades. However, there’s another form of transaction worth monitoring: contract extensions.
Extensions, of course, don’t involve adding a new player to the roster. By extending a contract, a team ensures that a current player will remain locked up for multiple years to come. While it may not change the club’s outlook on the court, it can have a major impact on that team’s salary cap situation — in terms of total value, the extensions signed this summer by James Harden and John Wall rank among the largest new contracts.
While rookie scale extensions are the most common form of contract extension, no fourth-year player has signed a rookie scale extension so far this offseason. Andrew Wiggins is expected to do so soon though, and there are many other players eligible for new deals up until the October 16 deadline. It’s common for about six to eight players entering the final year of their respective rookie contracts to sign extensions before the October deadline, and I wouldn’t expect this year to be any different.
[RELATED: Players eligible for rookie-scale extensions]
While they’re generally less common than rookie-scale extensions, veteran extensions are happening a little more frequently these days, with the league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement expanding the rules for eligibility and creating some additional incentives for star players to sign new deals before they reach free agency. So far this offseason, each new contract extension signed has been a veteran extension.
Listed below are the players who have finalized contract extensions so far in the 2017/18 league year. This list, which can be found on the right-hand sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site (or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu) will be kept up to date throughout the offseason, and even into the ’17/18 season, if any veteran players ink an extension at that point.
Veteran extensions:
- Russell Westbrook (Thunder): Five years, 35% maximum salary (story). Starts in 2018/19.
- James Harden (Rockets): Four years, 35% maximum salary (story). Starts in 2019/20.
- John Wall (Wizards): Four years, 35% maximum salary (story). Starts in 2019/20.
- Robert Covington (Sixers): Four years, $60MM (story). Includes renegotiation for 2017/18. Extension starts in 2018/19.
- LaMarcus Aldridge (Spurs): Two years, $50MM (story). Starts in 2019/20.
- Norman Powell (Raptors): Four years, $41.965MM (story). Starts in 2018/19.
- Josh Richardson (Heat): Four years, $41.965MM (story). Starts in 2018/19.
Rookie scale extensions:
- Andrew Wiggins (Timberwolves): Five years, 25% maximum salary (story). Starts in 2018/19.
- Joel Embiid (Sixers): Five years, 25% maximum salary (story). Starts in 2018/19. Includes injury protections.
- Gary Harris (Nuggets): Four years, $74MM (story). Starts in 2018/19.
- T.J. Warren (Suns): Four years, $47MM (story). Starts in 2018/19.
- Check out our in-depth look at 2017’s rookie scale extensions for more details.
Community Shootaround: Remaining Free Agents
Tony Allen and Shabazz Muhammad agreed to new deals within the last week, while Dante Cunningham appears set to follow suit, further reducing the number of appealing players on the unrestricted free agent market. Meanwhile, on the restricted free agent front, we finally saw some movement this week, with Mason Plumlee and the Nuggets reaching an agreement on a multiyear contract.
As our list of 2017 free agents shows, there are still some intriguing players available, particularly on the restricted market, where Alex Len, JaMychal Green, and Nikola Mirotic remain unsigned. However, the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bulls all have plenty of flexibility to bring back their own RFAs, so those players are good bets to remain with their current teams, like Plumlee and Nerlens Noel did before them.
The unrestricted market features less upside — there are former first-round picks in their mid-20s out there, such as Trey Burke, Thomas Robinson, and Derrick Williams, but those guys appear to have settled into roles as back-end rotation players, barring a late and unexpected leap.
The most interesting names on the UFA market are veterans with a little more experience, including Deron Williams, Monta Ellis, and Aaron Brooks in the backcourt. Gerald Green, Matt Barnes, and Alan Anderson may also have some appeal for teams in need of a swingman. Up front, veteran centers like Andrew Bogut, Spencer Hawes, and Roy Hibbert are still looking for work [Update: Bogut has agreed to sign with the Lakers], while power forwards like David Lee and Kris Humphries also seek new homes.
We shouldn’t count on any of those players to be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series next spring, but some of them could still have a little value, particularly on low-risk, minimum salary contracts.
What do you think? Which of the remaining free agents would you invest in? Are there any teams that you think would be particularly good fits for any available FAs? Or do you think clubs would be better off passing on this group of players in favor of a G League call-up or an undrafted rookie?
Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts on the remaining players from this year’s free agent class.
Hoops Rumors’ 2017 NBA Free Agent Tracker
With NBA training camps around the corner, teams are finalizing their preseason rosters, and Hoops Rumors is here to help you keep track of which players signed new contracts this offseason. To that end, we present our Free Agent Tracker, a feature we’ve had each year since our inception in 2012. Using our tracker, you can quickly look up deals, sorting by team, years, salary, and a handful of other variables.
A few notes on the tracker:
- Some of the information you’ll find in the tracker will reflect reported agreements, rather than finalized deals. As signings become official, we’ll continue to update and modify the data.
- Similarly, contract years and dollars will be based on what’s been reported to date, so in many cases those amounts will be approximations rather than official figures. Listed salaries aren’t necessarily fully guaranteed either — deals marked with a † symbol are primarily non-guaranteed.
- A restricted free agent who agrees to or signs an offer sheet will be included in the tracker, but the team won’t be specified until his original club matches or passes on the offer sheet, in order to avoid confusion.
- Two-way contracts and draft pick signings aren’t included in the tracker.
- Click on a player’s name for our full report on his deal.
- If you’re viewing the tracker on mobile, be sure to turn your phone sideways to see more details.
Our 2017 Free Agent Tracker can be found anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features,” and it’s also under the “Tools” menu atop the desktop site. You can find it on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It will be updated throughout the offseason, so be sure to check back for the latest info. If you have any corrections, please let us know right here.
Our lists of free agents by position/type and by team break down the players who have yet to reach contract agreements.