Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Memphis Grizzlies

May 12th, 2017 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies entered the 2016/17 season with high expectations, having hired David Fizdale to replace former head coach Dave Joerger and having locked up Chandler Parsons to a lucrative new four-year contract. However, 2016/17 looked a lot like 2015/16 for the Grizzlies, who increased their win total from 42 to 43 and managed to take the Spurs to six games in the first round instead of four.

In Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, Memphis has two cornerstone pieces, both of whom were at their best this past season, establishing new career-highs in scoring. But the Grizzlies have been unable to find the right complementary players necessary to take the next step — or at least have been unable to keep those players healthy.

Here are five questions facing the Grizzlies as they enter the offseason…

1. Can the Grizzlies count on Chandler Parsons to be a legit contributor?

A year ago, the Mavericks decided not to bring back Parsons on a max deal, opting instead for Harrison Barnes. That decision raised some eyebrows at the time, but Dallas knew better than anyone that Parsons’ injury history was a red flag, as the Grizzlies saw first-hand during his first season in Memphis.

Parsons appeared in just 34 games for the Grizzlies in 2016/17, and even when he was able to get on the court, he struggled badly, shooting just 33.8% from the field and 26.9% on three-pointers. Both marks were career worsts by far.

Parsons was a career 38.0% three-point shooter before arriving in Memphis, and if he can regain his old form, he’d be an ideal threat on the wing to help take the scoring load off Conley and Gasol. But if Parsons continues to battle injuries, his contract – which is guaranteed for $72MM+ over the next three years – will be an albatross on Memphis’ cap, limiting the team’s flexibility to add other pieces.

2. Is this the end of an era for Zach Randolph and/or Tony Allen?

Randolph and Allen didn’t start their respective NBA careers in Memphis, but it’s hard to imagine them playing anywhere else at this point. Randolph was traded to the Grizzlies way back in 2009, and Allen signed with the club as a free agent a year later. The duo has helped epitomize the “Grit ‘n’ Grind” era in Memphis, but they’ll be free agents this summer, and there’s no guarantee they’ll both be back.

For his part, Allen has expressed a strong desire to remain with the Grizzlies, and has indicated he’s not looking to “break the bank” in free agency. The veteran guard has never earned more than about $5.5MM in a season, and deserves a raise, but if he’s willing to take a hometown discount to remain in Memphis, it would help the team re-sign Randolph or add another free agent.

Randolph’s situation is a little more complicated, in part because the power forward who replaced him in the starting lineup this season is also a free agent, which brings us to our next question…

3. Will the Grizzlies re-sign JaMychal Green?

The Grizzlies inserted Green into their starting lineup on a full-time basis in 2016/17, figuring that his skill-set made him a better fit in the frontcourt with Gasol. That bet paid off, as Green enjoyed a modest breakout year, averaging 8.9 PPG and 7.1 RPG with a shooting line of .500/.379/.802.

Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, but Green was a reliable and consistent performer in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt, providing solid defense, rebounding, and the ability to hit the occasional outside shot. He’ll turn 27 next month, so unlike Randolph, he’s still very much in his prime, and after earning the minimum salary in 2016/17, he should be in line for a substantial raise as he enters restricted free agency.

The Grizzlies have Green’s Bird rights, meaning they can go over the cap to re-sign him, and they also hold the right of first refusal, allowing them to match another team’s offer sheet. Still, if the Grizzlies commit to a raise for Allen and want to use their mid-level exception to bring in another player, the club may be forced to choose between Green and Randolph unless ownership is willing to approach the tax line.

4. Are Jarell Martin and/or Wade Baldwin ready for larger roles?

If the Grizzlies aren’t able to retain both Randolph and Green, they’ll need to fill a hole in their frontcourt rotation. The most logical in-house candidate for an increased role would be Martin, a 2015 first-round pick who turns 23 later this month. The LSU product looked solid in limited minutes during his rookie season, but failed to take a step forward in his second year, as his field goal percentage dipped from .466 to .384. If Memphis isn’t confident in Martin’s ability to provide productive minutes, that puts more pressure on the team to bring back its two free agent power forwards or to seek outside help.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have had trouble finding a backup for Conley in recent years, prompting them to use 2016’s 17th overall pick on Baldwin. The rookie guard played more minutes in the D-League than he did in the NBA in his first year, and even his D-League stats weren’t all that impressive — he averaged 12.9 PPG and 5.3 APG with a .433/.311/.748 shooting line in 33 games. If Baldwin isn’t ready to assume backup duties behind Conley, the team may end up targeting a veteran point guard using its MLE.

5. Will Vince Carter finish his career in Memphis?

With Randolph, Allen, and Green all eligible for free agency this offseason, Carter probably won’t be the top priority for the Grizzlies, but the 18-year veteran continues to be a key part of Memphis’ rotation. He averaged 24.6 minutes per game for the club in 2016/17, making 1.5 threes per game (37.8%). He also wants to play for two more seasons.

Presumably, the Grizzlies would love to have Carter back if he’s willing to sign for the minimum. And if a couple of Memphis’ other free agents leave, the team would have the ability to offer him more than the minimum. However, if another team makes a strong pitch to Carter when free agency opens on July 1, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him head elsewhere, creating another hole to fill in the Grizzlies’ rotation.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Grizzlies financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Mike Conley ($28,530,608)
Chandler Parsons ($23,112,004)
Marc Gasol ($22,642,350)
Brandan Wright ($5,955,760)
Troy Daniels ($3,408,520)
James Ennis ($3,028,410)
Wade Baldwin ($1,874,400)
Jarell Martin ($1,471,382)
Deyonta Davis ($1,312,611)
Andrew Harrison ($1,312,611)
Jamaal Franklin ($163,296) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $92,811,952

Player Options

None

Team Options

Wayne Selden ($1,312,611)
Total: $1,312,611

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

JaMychal Green ($2,820,497 qualifying offer / $2,820,497 cap hold)
Total: $2,820,497

Cap Holds

Zach Randolph ($15,542,168)
Tony Allen ($10,460,674)
Vince Carter ($8,101,708)
Wayne Selden ($1,312,611) — If team option is declined
Total: $35,417,161

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $6,556,818

With no cap hold for a first-round draft pick to worry about, the Grizzlies would have $94,443,182 on their books if they only kept their players on guaranteed salaries, plus a pair of empty roster cap charges. In that scenario though, their projected cap room would be less than the mid-level exception, and it would mean renouncing free agents like Green, Randolph, Allen, and Carter. As such, Memphis is far more likely to stay over the cap and make an effort to re-sign at least a couple of those players.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Houston Rockets

May 12th, 2017 at 12:32pm CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets outperformed expectations in 2016/17, with James Harden receiving MVP consideration and Mike D’Antoni entering the Coach of the Year discussion as the club set records for three-point shooting. However, the season ended on a sour note, and Daryl Morey won’t have as much cap flexibility to make roster additions this summer as he did a year ago, when Houston landed Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2017:

Guaranteed Salary

James Harden ($28,299,399)
Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455)
Eric Gordon ($12,943,020)
Trevor Ariza ($7,420,912)
Lou Williams ($7,000,000)
Patrick Beverley ($5,513,514)
Clint Capela ($2,334,528)
Sam Dekker ($1,794,600)
Montrezl Harrell ($1,471,382)
Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611)
Total: $87,668,421

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Wiltjer ($1,312,611)¹
Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611)
Total: $2,625,222

Restricted Free Agents

Bobby Brown ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Troy Williams ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $3,236,916

Cap Holds

Nene ($3,477,600)
Total: $3,477,600

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $11,700,349

With more than $87MM on their 2017/18 cap in the form of guaranteed salaries, the Rockets would have a team salary of $89,299,651 if they added a couple cap charges for empty roster spots to that total. That would give the club about $11.7MM in cap room, which isn’t much more than what the mid-level exception is expected to be worth. In order to clear out additional space, a trade would be necessary.

Footnotes:

Wiltjer’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.

NBA Player Option Decisions For 2017/18

May 12th, 2017 at 10:22am CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the final year of his deal, finishing out his contract, or to opt out and hit the free agent market a year early.

A year ago, 29 veterans held player options on their contracts for 2016/17, and 26 of those players declined to pick up those options, choosing instead to enter free agency. The three players that exercised their options were Tim Duncan, Caron Butler, and Mo Williams — none of the three played a single NBA minute this past season.

In other words, if you had a player option on your contract last year, declining it was a no-brainer, unless you didn’t expect to land another contract. Even someone like Shane Larkin, who spent the season overseas playing ball in Spain, turned down a player option for that opportunity.

This year’s player option decisions will likely follow a similar pattern, with a few exceptions. Although the salary cap won’t make the same leap in 2017 that it did in 2016, there’s still plenty of money available out there for free agents, so guys with player options may turn them down in search of a longer-term contract that will pay more overall.

This year’s player options are detailed below. We’ll keep this list updated through the end of June to note the latest decisions.

Point Guards

Langston Galloway, Kings ($5,434,000): Opting out
Kyle Lowry, Raptors ($12,000,000): Opted out
Chris Paul, Clippers ($24,268,959): Opted in*

Shooting Guards

C.J. Miles, Pacers ($4,772,675): Opting out
Dwyane Wade, Bulls ($23,800,000): Opted in
Dion Waiters, Heat ($3,028,410): Opting out

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant, Warriors ($27,734,405): Opting out
Danilo Gallinari, Nuggets ($16,100,000): Opting out
Rudy Gay, Kings ($14,263,566): Opted out
Gordon Hayward, Jazz ($16,736,710): Opted out
Luc Mbah a Moute, Clippers ($2,302,135): Opted out
Nick Young, Lakers ($5,668,667): Opted out

Power Forwards

Dante Cunningham, Pelicans ($3,106,500): Opting out
Blake Griffin, Clippers ($21,373,952): Opted out*
David Lee, Spurs ($2,328,652): Opted out
Josh McRoberts, Heat ($6,021,175): Opted in
Paul Millsap, Hawks ($21,472,407): Opted out
Willie Reed, Heat ($1,577,230): Opting out

Centers

Aron Baynes, Pistons ($6,500,000): Opted out
Dewayne Dedmon, Spurs ($3,028,410): Opting out
Pau Gasol, Spurs ($16,197,500): Opting out
Spencer Hawes, Bucks ($6,021,175): Opted in
Greg Monroe, Bucks ($17,884,176): Opted in
Marreese Speights, Clippers ($2,116,955): Opted out

* Note: Paul and Griffin have early termination options on their contracts. These aren’t technically player options, but practically speaking, they serve the same function.

Hoops Links Vol. 4: Conspiracy Theories, Broken Mechanics, More

May 11th, 2017 at 11:27am CST by Austin Kent

Once a week, we here at Hoops Rumors like to share the best blog content on the internet. In this, our fourth installment, of Hoops Links we take you all over the blogosphere from the upcoming NBA lottery to the Raptors rebuild that never was and the fountain of youth.

Want to see your favorite content featured here next week? Submit it for possible inclusion by tweeting @AustinKent or emailing HoopsRumorsTips@Sports.ws. We want entertaining, unique content and that’s exactly what’s out there.

When the dust settled on the 2016/17 regular season, the Magic finished with the fifth-worst record in the NBA. This week, Aaron Goldstone of Orlando Pinstriped Post explored what that means for their lottery odds. The team with the fifth-best odds has won the lottery five times since its inception, Goldstone writes, but a simple look at the probabilities of possible outcomes reveals that the club is most likely to walk away with the No. 6 pick.

Rating: 9 out of 10 Spontaneous Math Tutorials
Author: Aaron Goldstone – @GoldstoneAaron
Link: Orlando Magic lottery odds

Might Kristaps Porzingis have intentionally published the cryptic Clippers tweet to send a message to Knicks owner James Dolan? Behold a conspiracy theory from the nefarious mind of one New York blogger notorious for having once trafficked in deceit himself to improve standing in the workplace. Richard Bertin of Daily Knicks suggests that the hacking claim rings false and that other motives are at play.

Rating: 7 out of 10 And Anyway, Leaving Your Account Open Isn’t The Same As Being Hacked Eithers
Author: Richard Bertin – @RichardBertin
Link: Kristaps Porzingis’ Clippers tweet

The shock of the Raptors‘ sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers has started to give way to action and a Masai Ujiri exit interview this week reassured fans that he’s well aware of what needs to be done. Adam Corsair of South of the 6ix is comfortable having faith in the Raptors president. A full Ujiri rebuild, Corsair writes, is eerily exciting considering we haven’t actually seen one yet.

Rating: 8 out of 10 Vetoed Knicks Trades
Author: Adam Corsair – @ACorsair21
Link: Ujiri’s options for Raptors offseason

He hasn’t played a game in the NBA yet, but that doesn’t stop the Sixers and their fans from planning a future with Ben Simmons in their lineup. Myles Stedman of The Sixers Sense went through each of the top draft prospects for this upcoming class and discussed how they could fit alongside 2016’s first overall pick.

Rating: 7 out of 10 Mock Draft Addictions
Author: Myles Stedman – @StedsTake
Link: Sixers draft prospects

It’s hard to know just what impact LaVar Ball‘s assumed involvement will have on Lonzo Ball‘s NBA career but Anthony Irwin of Silver Screen and Roll cautions that the most famous father in this year’s draft class is likely licking his chops at the size of the Lakers‘ platform. That could be one of several unnecessary distractions.

Rating: 8 out of 10 Luxury Flip Flops
Author: Anthony Irwin – @AnthonyIrwinLA
Link: Lonzo Ball and the Lakers

With age comes wisdom and a vastly improved three-point shot — the Raptors learned this the hard way not long after the Pacers did last month. Is 32 the new 22? The way LeBron James has been tearing through the NBA seems to suggest as much. For the King James Gospel, Dan Gilinsky wrote about how James and the Cavaliers are looking more dominant than ever.

Rating: 8 out of 10 Goats
Author: Dan Gilinsky – @ArmchairQBDan
Link: LeBron James aging well

It was a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad season for Pistons fans, and making matters worse is that Andre Drummond may not fully own up to what went wrong. Steve Hinson of Detroit Bad Boys recently broke down an interview the big man gave and wasn’t too impressed.

Rating: 7 out of 10 Mats Of Luscious Shoulder Hair
Author: Steve Hinson – @Shinons8
Link: Andre Drummond discusses Pistons season

It was a rough year for Chandler Parsons this season, as the 28-year-old posted career lows across the board just months after signing a max contract. Still, the most disappointing thing about it wasn’t Parsons’ lack of production, but his lack of awareness as to what it means to commit to the Grizzlies franchise. Joe Mullinax of Grizzly Bear Blues argues that the star should make more of an effort to fit into the Memphis community if he wants to be embraced.

Rating: 9 out of 10 Screencapped Instagram Comments
Author: Joe Mullinax – @JoeMullinax
Link: Chandler Parsons disappointing Memphis season

Minor tweaks to shooting mechanics could help Justise Winslow improve his jumper in much the same way that Kawhi Leonard benefited from slight changes to his own shot. Wes Goldberg of All U Can Heat broke down the Heat forward’s shooting stroke and suggests that establishing a more consistent base could help him increase a woeful 20% “wide-open” three-point percentage.

Rating: 8 out of 10 Spontaneous Physics Tutorials
Author: Wes Goldberg – @WCGoldberg
Link: Justise Winslow shooting mechanics

After a tumultuous few seasons, Lance Stephenson is back with the Pacers and Josh Padmore of 8 Points, 9 Seconds wonders if the swingman can return to near-All-Star form. He argues that Stephenson and the Pacers are just meant to be.

Rating: 7 out of 10 Memes
Author: Josh Padmore – @JPadmore92
Link: Lance Stephenson back with Pacers

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Which Players Are Helping Their Free Agent Stock The Most This Postseason?

May 10th, 2017 at 9:15pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA playoffs are a different animal than the regular season beast. The stakes are higher on a night-to-night basis, rotations are shortened, and the margin for error approaches zero. The league notices which players thrive in the NBA’s second season and those players can sometimes reap lucrative deals as a result of their performance.

Cody Taylor of Basketball Insiders compiles a list of which soon-to-be free agents have improved their stocks the most this spring. Jonathon Simmons, JaMychal Green, JaVale McGee, Joe Ingles, and Andre Roberson were the five players who made the scribe’s list, which is in no particular order. Hoops Rumors has decided to take it a step further and rank the players based on the change in perceived market value (it’s worth noting that we are purely speculating). Here’s our rankings of the aforementioned players:

JaVale McGee (UFA): Entering the postseason, it was unclear if McGee would see the floor. However, he’s carved out a nice role off the bench in limited minutes (11.4 per postseason game) and he should continue to give Golden State a shot-blocking threat for the remainder of their playoff run. He’s making the minimum this year, but it wouldn’t be out of the question for a rival team to offer him an annual salary of $7-10MM with the hopes that he could handle a slightly larger role.
JaMychal Green (RFA): The Grizzlies entered the 2016/17 season with questionable depth and they badly needed one of their fridge rotation pieces to step up. Green answered the call, showcasing his ability to help the team off the bench. He shot 43.8% from behind the arc this postseason and provided tremendous defense on both post players and wings. He proved he can play when the lights shine the brightest.
Joe Ingles (RFA): Ingles was a key rotation player for the Jazz all season and he stepped up when it matter most against the Clippers in the team’s opening series. He proved he can contribute to a playoff-caliber team and with the demand for wings with three-point range, he could see a sizable raise on his current $2.15MM salary.
Jonathon Simmons (RFA): Gregg Popovich continues to show the world how much he trusts Simmons by playing him in crucial situations during San Antonio’s playoff run. The small forward has displayed excellent defensive skills and it wouldn’t be surprising if a rival team hands him an offer sheet that’s simply too lucrative for the Spurs to match.
Andre Roberson (RFA): Taylor notes that Roberson may have been the second most important player on the Thunder this postseason. While that’s probably true, it’s more of a testament to the team’s roster than it is to Robinson’s impact. The small forward displayed tremendous perimeter defense, though he was a liability on the offensive end and no Thunder player other than Russell Westbrook looked particularly impressive this postseason. Heading into the playoffs, the 25-year-old defender was already in line to see a raise on his current salary. It’s hard to argue that the playoffs increased his value all that much.

Agree with the list? Believe another player belongs on it or that is should be rearranged? Let us know in the comment section below!

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

May 10th, 2017 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

It was an up-and-down season for the Hawks, who kicked off the post-Al Horford era last fall by winning nine of their first 11 games, then losing 10 of their next 11. The team went through several more swings throughout the season, including dropping seven straight games in March while battling for playoff position, and ultimately fell to the Wizards in the first round of the playoffs.

There were some positive signs worth taking away from the 2016/17 campaign, including the development of Dennis Schroder, who improved many of his per-minute averages and his field goal percentage while taking on a significantly larger role. However, Kent Bazemore failed to make similar strides after inking a lucrative four-year deal, and notable free agent addition Dwight Howard grew frustrated with his role down the stretch.

Here are five questions facing the Hawks as they enter the offseason…

1. Which direction are the Hawks headed?

Back in January, Atlanta sent Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers for a future first-round pick and appeared ready to continue to trade players in contract years, including Paul Millsap. However, just days after moving Korver, the Hawks pulled Millsap off the trade market, telling him he wouldn’t be going anywhere.

Korver, a free-agent-to-be in his mid-30s, wasn’t a core piece for the Hawks, but he was still the sort of player who could have helped the team in a playoff series. As such, it was odd that Atlanta would deal him for a future piece and then decide to take a win-now approach anyway.

Coming off a two-year stretch in which its regular-season win total has dipped from 60 to 48 to 43, the franchise will have to be more decisive in determining which direction it wants to go this summer. Is this still a win-now roster, or is it time to take a step back and retool? Front office changes may help in that regard, as there were reports that GM Wes Wilcox and president Mike Budenholzer didn’t see eye-to-eye on the Hawks’ direction. They’ve both been re-assigned and won’t have as much say in personnel decisions, which raises a new question…

2. Who will be making decisions in the front office?

The Hawks’ search for a new head of basketball operations is said to still be in the “infancy stage,” though names like Joe Dumars, David Griffin, and Troy Weaver have been mentioned as possible candidates.

Unlike the Magic, who dismissed their top two decision-makers and installed an assistant GM in the interim role, the Hawks didn’t fire anyone — they simply re-assigned Wilcox, removed Budenholzer’s president title, and kept the rest of their front office staff in place, as far as we know.

That will create an interesting dynamic for the executive the Hawks eventually hire. Will he be able to bring in his own people, or will club ownership expect him to keep the current front office group relatively intact? The Hawks have also said Budenholzer will still have a voice in basketball operations — how loud will that voice be, and will it undercut the new exec’s authority?

3. Will Paul Millsap be back?

A year after losing Horford to the Celtics, the Hawks have another All-Star big man set to hit the open market, and Millsap’s decision will play a large part in determining Atlanta’s approach to the rest of the offseason.

The former second-round pick is coming off another strong season, having averaged a career-best 18.1 PPG, and the Hawks can’t really afford to lose another All-Star for nothing. But the team will have to very careful about investing heavily in Millsap, who is 32 years old and will be eligible for a maximum salary of about $35MM in 2017/18.

The moving pieces in the front office shouldn’t impact the Millsap negotiations significantly, since he’s expected to negotiate directly with owner Tony Ressler anyway, according to one recent report. That’s not all that uncommon for a player of Millsap’s caliber, who will likely be in line for a maximum salary deal or something close to it, but it will create a somewhat unusual situation as the Hawks seek out a GM/president. Rather than Atlanta’s head of basketball ops negotiating with the team’s top free agent and going to ownership for approval, the new hire will likely have to be on board with Ressler’s decision on Millsap.

4. Will the Hawks try to re-sign their other free agents besides Millsap?

Millsap isn’t the only key player eligible for free agency this summer in Atlanta. Ersan Ilyasova, Kris Humphries, Mike Muscala, Jose Calderon, and Thabo Sefolosha will be unrestricted free agents, while Tim Hardaway will be eligible for restricted free agency. Not all those players will be in the Hawks’ plans going forward, but I’d expect the team to make an effort to bring back at least a couple of them.

Hardaway, in particular, was an important piece for the 2016/17 team, averaging a career-high 14.5 PPG and making 35.7% of his three-point attempts. Outside of Korver, no Hawk made more outside shots per game than Hardaway (1.9 3PG), so the club will need to find a way to add an outside threat if he doesn’t return.

5. Does Dwight Howard remain in Atlanta’s long-term plans?

Howard’s Hawks homecoming was a nice story last year, but the glow wore off as the season progressed, with the eight-time All-Star complaining in his exit interview about his reduced role.

It will be interesting to see how the Hawks’ new head of basketball operations views Howard, who is under contract for two more guaranteed years at a rate of nearly $24MM per season. The veteran center remains a useful rebounder and defender, but his salary and his desire to be more of an offensive threat complicate his value. If Atlanta doesn’t move Howard this summer, the team will have to find a way to keep him happy going forward, since he’s eating up a sizable chunk of cap room for the next couple years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hawks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Dwight Howard ($23,500,000)
Kent Bazemore ($16,910,113)
Dennis Schroder ($15,500,000)
Malcolm Delaney ($2,500,000)
Taurean Prince ($2,422,560)
Mike Dunleavy Jr. ($1,662,500) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
DeAndre’ Bembry ($1,567,200)
Total: $64,062,373

Player Options

Paul Millsap ($21,472,407)
Total: $21,472,407

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Mike Dunleavy Jr. ($3,512,500) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Ryan Kelly ($1,577,230)²
Total: $5,089,730

Restricted Free Agents

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,704,013 cap hold)
Total: $5,704,013

Cap Holds

Paul Millsap ($30,108,050) — If player option is declined
Ersan Ilyasova ($12,600,000)
Thabo Sefolosha ($7,315,000)
Kris Humphries ($5,200,000)
No. 19 overall pick ($1,936,920)
Jose Calderon ($1,471,382)
Mike Muscala ($1,471,382)
Total: $60,102,734

Trade Exceptions

Mike Scott TPE ($3,333,334) — Expires 2/23/18
Mo Williams TPE ($2,194,500) — Expires 1/18/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $30,922,632

By waiving their players without fully guaranteed contracts and renouncing all their exceptions and free agents (including Millsap), the Hawks would be left with six players on guaranteed deals, a cap hold for their first-round pick, and cap charges for empty roster spots totaling $70,077,368. That would give the club nearly $31MM in cap room, but if Atlanta wants to make an effort to re-sign Millsap, that space would go away — Millsap’s cap hold exceeds $30MM on its own.

Footnotes:

Dunleavy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Kelly’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 7.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Kyle Lowry And The Sixers

May 10th, 2017 at 3:34pm CST by Luke Adams

Kyle Lowry didn’t officially announce until this week that he would be turning down his 2017/18 player option in order to sign a new, longer-term – and more lucrative – contract. However, the decision had long been expected, and much of the speculation on Lowry’s potential destination in recent months has centered on the idea of a homecoming.

While the Raptors, who can offer more years and more dollars than any other suitor, are still considered the favorites to sign Lowry this summer, the Sixers will have plenty of cap room at their disposal and don’t necessarily have a long-term solution at point guard. Throw in the fact that Lowry is a Philadelphia native, and that the Sixers are being run by former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo, and it’s easy to connect the dots.

Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer made the case today for a union between the Sixers and Lowry, and Pompey’s report isn’t based entirely on speculation. The Inquirer reporter cited sources who have suggested that Lowry has been interested in playing for his hometown team “for some time.” Similarly, sources “have always said” that the Sixers intend to make Lowry a competitive contract offer this summer, according to Pompey.

While there’s a compelling case in favor of the Sixers seriously pursuing Lowry, there’s also plenty of reason to believe it won’t happen. Besides the fact that the Raptors head into free agency with the upper hand in negotiations, the Sixers and Lowry may not be looking for the same things this offseason, as Marcus Hayes of The Philadelphia Daily News argued this week.

While the Sixers haven’t found a long-term solution at point guard, they may have one on the roster already, as the team has announced its intentions to try No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons at that position this summer and fall. If Simmons can handle running the point and is better suited to that spot than a forward role, it may not make sense to bring in Lowry on a long-term deal.

Meanwhile, from Lowry’s perspective, the Sixers may be a little further from contention than he’d like. The All-Star point guard would certainly help Philadelphia become a legit playoff contender, particularly if Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric are all healthy next season. But Lowry said in his exit interview this week that getting a championship ring is his top priority — Philadelphia still looks multiple years away from developing into a team of that caliber.

What do you think? If the Raptors and Lowry can’t work something out, would Philadelphia make sense as a landing spot, or is the fit not quite right? If not the Raptors or the Sixers, which team do you think signs Lowry this summer?

Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts!

Rookie Scale Salaries For 2017 First-Round Picks

May 10th, 2017 at 2:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2017 NBA draft is about a month and a half away, and once teams make those picks, they’ll have to account for how to fit their newly-drafted rookies into their salary cap for next season. Even before teams officially sign their first-round picks, those players will count against their cap, eating into the cap room available this summer.

In every NBA league year, rookie scale amounts are assigned to each first-round slot, from No. 1 through No. 30. Teams can sign their first-rounders to as little as 80% of that rookie scale amount, or up to 120% of that figure. While that rule affords teams some flexibility, first-rounders virtually always sign contracts worth 120% of their rookie scale amount.

Under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, cap holds for first-round picks counted for 100% of their rookie scale amount, so teams would often wait a little longer to officially sign their rookies to contracts in order to maximize their available cap room. However, because 120% contracts are the norm, the new CBA increases those cap holds for first-round picks to 120%, slightly reducing teams’ cap flexibility.

For instance, in 2017/18, the rookie scale amount for the No. 1 overall pick is $5,855,200. Under the previous CBA, that figure would have represented the player’s cap hold. Under the new CBA, the cap hold for the No. 1 pick will be $7,026,240 — 120% of the rookie scale amount, and his probable salary.

With the value of rookie contracts set to increase by 45% within the next three years, salaries are on the rise for 2017 draftees. In 2016, 120% of the rookie scale amount for the top pick worked out to about $5.9MM in year one, with raises up to $8.11MM by year four. For 2017’s No. 1 overall pick, year one will be worth $7.03MM, and year four will get all the way up to $12.29MM.

Listed below are the rookie scale amounts for 2017 draftees. Rookie scale contracts are guaranteed for the first two years, with team options on the third and fourth years.

Rookie scale amounts (100%):

(Click for full size)

Probable salaries for 2017 first-rounders (120% of rookie scale):

(Click for full size)

2017 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Toronto Raptors

May 10th, 2017 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

Having acquired Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline, the Raptors looked well-equipped to make a run in the Eastern Conference playoffs and perhaps even challenge the Cavaliers, a year after falling to Cleveland in the Eastern Finals. However, the Raps got all they could handle from the Bucks in the first round, then were thoroughly dominated by the Cavs in a second-round sweep. With a handful of key players – including Ibaka, Tucker, and All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry – eligible for free agency, a “culture reset” may be on tap for the franchise.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Raptors financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2017:

Guaranteed Salary

DeMar DeRozan ($27,739,975)
Jonas Valanciunas ($15,460,675)
DeMarre Carroll ($14,800,000)
Cory Joseph ($7,630,000)
Lucas Nogueira ($2,947,305)
Jakob Poeltl ($2,825,640)
Bruno Caboclo ($2,451,225)
Delon Wright ($1,645,200)
Pascal Siakam ($1,312,611)
Total: $76,812,631

Player Options

Kyle Lowry ($12,000,000)
Total: $12,000,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Norman Powell ($1,471,382)¹
Fred VanVleet ($1,312,611)²
Total: $2,783,993

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Serge Ibaka ($18,375,000)
Kyle Lowry ($18,000,000) — If player option is declined
Patrick Patterson ($11,495,000)
P.J. Tucker ($10,070,000)
No. 23 overall pick ($1,645,200)
Total: $59,585,200

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $20,910,939

With nine players on guaranteed salaries and a cap hold for a first-round pick, the Raptors could add two cap charges for empty roster spots for a total team salary of $80,089,061. However, that scenario would involve waiving Powell and VanVleet, not to mention renouncing Lowry, Ibaka, Patterson, and Tucker. That’s not realistic. It’s far more likely that Toronto stays over the cap and makes an effort to re-sign some of its own free agents, forgoing potential cap room.

Footnotes:

Powell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
VanVleet’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 20.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Portland Trail Blazers

May 9th, 2017 at 3:50pm CST by Luke Adams

After a successful 2015/16 campaign that included a first-round playoff victory over the Clippers, the Trail Blazers kept their roster intact by retaining restricted free agents like Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, and Maurice Harkless. However, those players didn’t take major steps forward in 2016/17, and the team’s outside free agent additions – Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli – failed to have the desired impact.

A mid-season trade for a first-round pick and Jusuf Nurkic, who averaged a double-double in his 20 games for Portland, was a slick move by president Neil Olshey and the front office, and helped the team earn a postseason spot. However, the Blazers were quickly dispatched by the top-seeded Warriors and will now head into the offseason with more guaranteed 2017/18 money on their books than any other NBA club.

Here are five questions facing the Blazers as they enter the offseason…

1. What moves can the Blazers to make to reduce their payroll?

As detailed below, the Blazers currently have more than $133MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2017/18, which is a staggering amount, considering the tax threshold projects to be about $121MM. Standing pat with a roster that is set to go deep into tax territory after earning a No. 8 seed probably isn’t a viable option for Olshey, so trades will have to be considered.

The most obvious trade candidates on the Blazers’ roster are guys like Crabbe and Turner, whose 2017/18 salaries total more than $36MM combined. But coming off mediocre seasons, those players aren’t exactly hot commodities right now, and their long-term contracts would be viewed as a burden by most teams. Players in the $7-10MM range like Harkless, Leonard, and Al-Farouq Aminu would likely be more movable, but won’t exactly inspire bidding wars either.

Complicating matters is the fact that the Blazers won’t be able to take on much salary in return in any hypothetical deal, assuming their goal is to cut costs. That would rule out many over-the-cap teams as trade partners, and after last summer’s league-wide spending spree, there aren’t nearly as many teams this summer projected to remain under the cap as their were in 2016.

Of course, the two most expensive players on the Blazers’ roster are also two of the players with the most trade value. That leads us to our second question…

2. Can a Damian Lillard/C.J. McCollum backcourt work long-term?

McCollum’s new contract will go into effect this summer, meaning he’ll earn nearly $24MM, with Lillard making more than $26MM. Some NBA observers are skeptical that Portland can become a legit contender without breaking up the backcourt, and moving one of Lillard or McCollum would go a long way toward reducing the Blazers’ cap issues — not to mention likely landing the club a legitimately valuable piece or two in return.

Still, asked last month about the possibility of trading one of his two high-scoring guards, Olshey all but ruled out the possibility. And while it’s probably true that he wouldn’t tell reporters if he were considering such a move, Olshey sounded genuine as he explained his reasoning.

“The odds of anything ever coming up of commensurate value is so hard to even fathom,” Olshey said at the time. “I could give you the trite answer that nobody is untradable, but clearly they are.”

While there are long-term concerns about the lack of size and the defensive ability of a Lillard/McCollum backcourt, the Blazers could look to the Wizards as a source of hope — a year ago, there was speculation that John Wall or Bradley Beal needed to be moved in order for Washington to thrive. Now, the Wizards are two wins away from earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

3. How will the Blazers use their draft picks?

The Blazers cleverly nabbed a pair of extra first-round picks in trades with the Cavaliers and Nuggets this year, recognizing that this year’s draft class would be deep. Portland won’t have a lottery pick at its disposal, but with the 15th, 20th, and 26th overall selections under control, the team has some options.

The club’s cap situation will play a crucial role in determining how these picks are used. If the Blazers need to attach a first-round pick to an expensive multiyear contract in a trade, they have the flexibility to lose one selection while retaining two others. If they keep all three picks, they may use a couple of them to select draft-and-stash players, recognizing that even adding rookie contracts to their books right now would be an expensive proposition if they remain in the tax.

The Blazers may not land a star with any of those first-round picks, but they could become very useful currency as the team explores its offseason options.

4. Is Noah Vonleh a part of the Blazers’ future?

Vonley appeared in 74 contests for Portland in 2016/17, starting 41 of those games and averaging 17.1 MPG. The former ninth overall pick showed some signs of promise in his part-time role for the team, increasing his field-goal percentage to a career-best 48.1% and grabbing 5.2 RPG. But his overall impact was still quite limited.

Vonleh is still only 21 years old, and it can take time for young players to develop into consistent contributors — Nurkic, who was selected seven spots after Vonleh in 2014 and didn’t break out until this year, is a good example of that. Nonetheless, Vonleh is entering the final year of his rookie contract, so the Blazers will soon have decide whether it’s time to move on from the Indiana product or whether he deserves a longer look.

5. Can Jusuf Nurkic be extended this offseason?

Like Vonleh, Nurkic is entering the last year of his rookie deal, meaning he’ll be eligible for a new contract as of July 1. That puts the Blazers in a somewhat tricky spot.

Nurkic’s performance down the stretch demonstrated that he’s the sort of player Portland should want to lock up for years to come, but he only played 20 games, and the end of his season was cut short by a broken leg. With so many pricey contracts on their books already, the Blazers may not be in a rush to finalize a new long-term agreement with Nurkic when he’s coming off a quarter-season audition and a major injury.

Fortunately, the Blazers will have time to consider its options with Nurkic. The deadline for an extension won’t arrive until late-August, at which point Portland should have a better idea of how his leg has recovered and how the team’s cap situation looks going forward. And even if the two sides don’t reach an agreement at that point, the Blazers will have the right of first refusal in 2018 when Nurkic reaches restricted free agency.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Trail Blazers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Damian Lillard ($26,153,057)
C.J. McCollum ($23,962,573)
Allen Crabbe ($19,332,500)
Evan Turner ($17,131,148)
Maurice Harkless ($10,162,922)
Meyers Leonard ($9,904,495)
Al-Farouq Aminu ($7,319,035)
Ed Davis ($6,352,531)
Noah Vonleh ($3,505,233)
Jusuf Nurkic ($2,947,305)
Shabazz Napier ($2,361,360)
Anderson Varejao ($1,984,005) — Waived via stretch provision.
Jake Layman ($1,312,611)
Festus Ezeli ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $133,428,775

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Festus Ezeli ($6,733,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Pat Connaughton ($1,471,382)²
Tim Quarterman ($1,312,611)
Total: $9,516,993

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

No. 15 overall pick ($2,365,560)
No. 20 overall pick ($1,859,400)
No. 26 overall pick ($1,465,920)
Total: $5,690,880

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$38,119,655

Portland has an extraordinary amount of money tied up in guaranteed salaries for next season. If the Blazers were to waive all their players on non-guaranteed salaries, the club’s remaining salaries for 2017/18 – along with cap holds for first-round draft picks – would total $139,119,655, a figure that would be well above the tax line. Trades to clear some salary are possible, but the Blazers are a virtual lock to remain over the cap this offseason.

Footnotes:

Ezeli’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Connaughton’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 25.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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