Hoops Rumors Originals

Teams With The Most 2015 Draft Picks

Don’t cry for the Sixers because they didn’t wind up with either of the two extra lottery picks that could have come their way. GM Sam Hinkie isn’t morose about it, in part because the team will receive those first-rounders from the Lakers and Heat eventually, and because Philadelphia has a league-high six total picks this year anyway. That’s the case even though the Sixers traded away their own second-round pick. Only the Celtics, with four, even come close. If there’s a team that deserves sympathy, it’s the Clippers. They’re the only franchise without a pick this year, and thanks in large measure to their max deals for Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, they’re without many other means to improve this offseason.

Five of Philly’s six picks come in the second round, including two of the last three picks, a result of Hinkie’s prioritization of second-rounders in trades. A second-round pick isn’t as likely to become a productive player as a first-round pick is, but the Sixers have five times as many chances to find an exception to the rule than they would if they had stood pat.

While 19 of this year’s 60 picks changed hands, including 14 in the second round, precisely half the teams in the league possess two picks, the same number as if there hadn’t been any trades. Some of those teams did trade at least one of their selections, but in those cases, they pulled off other deals to even the ledger.

Here’s a breakdown of each team’s picks, categorized by the total amount of selections they have. To check out the order by selection, click here:

Six picks

  • Sixers (3, 35, 37, 47, 58, 60)

Four picks

  • Celtics (16, 28, 33, 45)

Three picks

  • Hawks (15, 50, 59)
  • Jazz (12, 42, 54)
  • Lakers (2, 27, 34)
  • Timberwolves (1, 31, 36)

Two picks

  • Bucks (17, 46)
  • Cavaliers (24, 53)
  • Heat (10, 40)
  • Hornets (9, 39)
  • Magic (5, 51)
  • Mavericks (21, 52)
  • Nets (29, 41)
  • Nuggets (7, 57)
  • Pacers (11, 43)
  • Pistons (8, 38)
  • Rockets (18, 32)
  • Spurs (26, 55)
  • Suns (13, 44)
  • Thunder (14, 48)
  • Wizards (19, 49)

One pick

  • Bulls (22)
  • Grizzlies (25)
  • Kings (6)
  • Knicks (4)
  • Pelicans (56)
  • Raptors (20)
  • Trail Blazers (23)
  • Warriors (30)

No picks

  • Clippers

Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (25th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $37,881,575
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,822,583
  • Options: $9,200,000
  • Cap Holds: $37,644,480
  • Total: $88,548,638

Five straight years, the Grizzlies have taken their core of Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to the playoffs, and five straight years, they’ve failed to break through to the Finals, much less win a title. A loss to the 67-win Warriors in this year’s playoffs wasn’t at all unexpected, but it was nonetheless tough to take after Memphis broke out to a 2-1 series lead. It’s worth wondering if this team, as constructed, can ever reach the pinnacle. The Grizzlies appear prepared to give it another try, to foist a maximum-salary contract on the 30-year-old Gasol with the faith that his improvement this season wasn’t the last step forward he’ll take as a player before he begins an inevitable age-induced series of steps back. Gasol, whose heart is in Memphis but who wants to win, has to decide this summer if he, too, believes that it’s possible with this Grizzlies team.

May 5, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) passes the basketball during the third quarter in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Grizzlies defeated the Warriors 97-90. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

The former Defensive Player of the Year has given precious few hints about the path he’ll choose, but signals from elsewhere suggest Gasol’s favored path leads right back where he’s been. The Spurs worry Memphis the most among Gasol’s many fans among NBA front offices, but they’re poised to pursue LaMarcus Aldridge, seen as more obtainable, before they go after Gasol, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com recently reported.  The Knicks became pessimistic early in the season about their chances to land Gasol, as Marc Berman of the New York Post heard then, and more recently Beno Udrih, whom the Grizzlies claimed off waivers from the Knicks last year, said he doesn’t think the Knicks have a chance. Indeed, most of Gasol’s teammates think he’ll be back, according to Michael Wallace of ESPN.com, and GM Chris Wallace does, too, as he told WHBQ-AM.

If somehow they turn out to be wrong, it would be a mighty blow to the franchise but not necessarily a devastating one. Memphis would likely be able to clear enough cap room for a max offer to at least the marquee free agents eligible for the 30% max, if not those in line for 35% or more. The Grizzlies could pitch Aldridge on the idea of having a team where he’d be an unquestioned lead dog. They could point to Gasol’s offensive strides and tell DeAndre Jordan that he can make the same sort of improvements under coach Dave Joerger and his staff. They could rectify perhaps the franchise’s most egregious mistake, trading Kevin Love on draft night in 2008, and tell him, if he opts out this summer, that he can compete for titles in Memphis just as he could in Cleveland but without the pressure of “fit in or fit out” admonitions from LeBron James.

Still, it appears the most likely scenario involves the Grizzlies luring none other than their own star to sign a 30% max deal, probably for the full five seasons. Unless Gasol engineers a short-term deal, Memphis would luck out and avoid him catching the first wave of the rising salary cap when it rolls in next season. The Grizzlies as it is are without any eight-figure salaries on the books for next season, and while a max deal for Gasol and an opt-in from Jeff Green would keep Memphis from opening cap room this summer, the team would be primed to go into the summer of 2016 with plenty of flexibility. That’s when Conley comes up for a new deal to replace the bargain contract that’s allowed the Grizzlies to make other moves to stay on the fringes of the title picture the past few seasons. Re-signing Conley would take the higher max that Gasol appears to be missing out on, and while whatever deal Gasol might sign this summer wouldn’t look like quite as much of a bargain come 2016/17 as Conley has been, the Grizzlies would benefit nonetheless.

For now, Memphis is waiting on Gasol and Green. It appears the thinking for now is that Green will opt in, as Stein wrote, but that’s far from certain. If Green opts out and Gasol re-signs, Memphis could open roughly $7MM in cap space, based on the projected $67.1MM cap and an estimated $19MM max for Gasol. That would involve stripping away a host of supporting characters, including Kosta Koufos, and unloading the 25th overall pick or using it on a draft-and-stash prospect. There would be ways for the Grizzlies to use that space to shore up some of their deficiencies. DeMarre Carroll would fit right in defensively and give the team a legitimate three-point threat. The same could be said of Danny Green, while Arron Afflalo, should he opt out of his deal with the Blazers, is a proven scorer who could add another dimension to the Grizzlies offense. Still, it would take a lot of contingencies to break in the right direction for any of them to end up in Memphis.

It seems more likely that Memphis stays above the cap and has the $5.464MM mid-level as its primary financial tool for an upgrade. Koufos has expressed a desire for more playing time, making him a threat to bolt, so the Grizzlies may well find themselves debating the merits of an upgrade on the wing or at backup center. The team’s level of faith that Jordan Adams, last year’s first-round pick, can make a contribution next season would play into that. Memphis knows what it has in Jon Leuer, who’s been on the fringe of the rotation the past two seasons, so that might be comfort enough for the club to go after the likes of Marco Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy, or Jared Dudley with the mid-level. The Grizzlies could probably split the mid-level and still come away with Gerald Green, Rodney Stuckey, Luke Babbitt or Wesley Johnson, though each of them comes with the risk of being just another wing player who doesn’t give Memphis enough of what it needs.

Indeed, these Grizzlies have always lacked a dynamic threat on the wing who can both attack the basket and shoot from the outside while playing capable defense. Such talents aren’t easy to find for a team without eight-figure cap flexibility, but the test for Wallace is to find one on the cheap, develop one from within or, as he and former CEO Jason Levien have tried to do since the Rudy Gay trade, cobble together the right mix of flawed but talented role players. That’s not easy, but Wallace would surely be glad to attack that deficiency rather than worry about how to replace his star center.

The emergence of the Grizzlies as one of the league’s most respected defensive forces over the past several years mirrored Gasol’s development into the same, and that’s no coincidence. This summer will go a long way toward determining whether that’s as far as they both can go, or if there’s another growth spurt left for both sides.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Grizzlies waived Melo in August 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
2 — The Grizzlies waived Franklin in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
3 — Udrih’s salary is partially guaranteed for $923,000.
4 — Green’s salary is partially guaranteed for $150,000.
5 — Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed for $150K if he remains under contract through July 15th and fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 25th.
6 — The cap hold for Green would be $13,800,000 if he opts out.
7 — The cap hold for Calathes would be $947,276 if the Grizzlies elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
8 — The cap hold for Gasol will be the lesser of $23,744,532 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a player with his seven years of experience. That maximum will almost certainly be less than  $23,744,532, so the number listed above is an estimate of the max.
9 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players technically remain on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2014/15 D-League Usage Report: Jazz

The relationship between the NBA and the D-League continues to grow, and 17 NBA franchises currently have one-to-one D-League affiliates amongst the 18 D-League teams. The remaining 13 NBA teams shared the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this season. We at Hoops Rumors will be recapping each team’s use of the D-League this season, looking at assignments and recalls as well as the players signed out of the D-League. We’ll continue onward with a look back at how the Jazz utilized the D-League during the 2014/15 campaign…

D-League Team: Idaho Stampede

Affiliation Type: One-to-one

D-League Team Record: 28-22

Number of NBA Players Assigned To D-League: 3

Total D-League Assignments: 5

Player Stats While On Assignment:

  • Ian Clark: 1 assignment, 7 games, 14.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.7 APG. .425/.450/.667.
  • Grant Jerrett: 2 assignments, 9 games, 12.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 APG. .444/.412/.571.
  • Toure’ Murry: 2 assignments, 6 games, 14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.0 APG. .424/.133/.667.

D-League Signings

Assignment/Recall Log

*Note: Jerrett had eight previous assignments as a member of the Thunder.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Wizards

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (19th overall)
  • 2nd Round (49th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $64,650,940
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
  • Options: $6,644,327
  • Cap Holds: $11,559,645
  • Total: $82,854,912

A year later, the Wizards wound up right where they had been. Washington came closer to the title than it had in more than three decades last season, and this year, the Wizards repeated their run to the sixth game of the conference semifinals against the East’s No. 1 seed. If the three-point shot from Paul Pierce that officials waived off after a replay review at the end of Game 6 against the Hawks had left Pierce’s hands a moment earlier, the Wizards might still be playing. Still, Pierce’s mere presence on the court that night signaled the progress the Wizards have made in the past 12 months, even if the results in the playoffs didn’t show it.

March 23, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) dribbles the basketball during the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Wizards 107-76. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A 10-time All-Star still capable of making a significant contribution such as Pierce wouldn’t have chosen to sign with Wizards if he didn’t find them capable of going far. No one, and probably Pierce included, would have mistaken this year’s Wizards for a title contender, but it’s a franchise with at least a few of the basic ingredients necessary to become one in the near future. John Wall further established himself as an elite point guard, taking fewer shots and dishing more assists. He averaged 10.1 assists per game in the regular season and an even more impressive 11.9 in the playoffs, and he said at the team’s end-of-season press conference that what he’d learned from Pierce this season had a profound impact, as the Wizards Twitter account relays.

Much of the future for the Wizards depends on how much Wall, who’ll turn 25 in September, and Bradley Beal, who won’t be 22 until next month, can improve before they hit their respective peaks. Still, in spite of coach Randy Wittman‘s apparent belief that Pierce will play again next season, the 37-year-old veteran of 17 NBA seasons is making no such guarantees, and even if he does choose to come back, it’s not certain that he will do so with the Wizards. Pierce can become a free agent this summer if he turns down his player option, and as he showed in the playoffs, he probably still has enough left to command a salary similar to the more than $5.5MM he’d make on the option.

Backup center Kevin Seraphin already has his sights set on a starting role, signaling that he’s on his way elsewhere, with Marcin Gortat only one year into a five-year contract. Drew Gooden, another frontcourt rotation player, is also a free agent this summer. Washington is already knocking against the projected $67.1MM salary cap, so the team has little capacity to replace the players who walk away. The most significant financial weapon that GM Ernie Grunfeld is likely to have at his disposal will probably be the $5.464MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, though he’ll also have the $2.139MM biannual exception two years after the ill-fated biannual signing of Eric Maynor. The signings that teams make with the mid-level and biannual are hit or miss. The Clippers were the only team to use the non-taxpayer’s mid-level to its full extent last summer, and they probably regret doing so for Spencer Hawes, while the Rockets held on to their biannual into the season and used it in December to nab Josh Smith, who was key in helping Houston oust the Clippers in the playoffs. In any case, the Wizards would be fortunate to find a player who can produce like Pierce did this year at those price points.

Grunfeld and the Wizards were creative in acquiring Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair via sign-and-trade last summer when they didn’t otherwise have means to sign them for more than the minimum, and while neither of them had an outsized impact, it shows there’s another way to upgrade. Washington has a pair of trade exceptions, one worth $4.625MM and the other more than $2.252MM, to facilitate those sorts of deals.

The Wizards could engender a more significant shakeup if they take heed to Gortat’s preference to play next to a stretch four. Nene doesn’t fit that description, and he’ll be on an expiring contract next season, when he’ll make $13MM. That salary won’t be easy to swap, particularly since many of Nene’s numbers were down this season amid fewer minutes per game than he’s seen since 2007/08, and he’ll turn 33 in September. It’s possible that Grunfeld could find a team with win-now aspirations that would be willing to take a short-term risk, like the Hornets, Kings or Raptors. However, unless one of those teams would be willing to send back an asset of real value, the Wizards are probably better off sticking with Nene and further reducing his role if Pierce, whose teams have played well with him at power forward, returns. Washington can always explore trades for Nene during the season if he grows discontent with his role, and the Wizards needn’t rush to add long-term salary to fix a short-term issue.

However the Wizards spend money in the offseason ahead, it’ll be with the summer of 2016 in mind. It’s no secret that the Wizards would love to persuade D.C. native Kevin Durant. set for free agency that summer, into a homecoming. The Wizards already have about $29MM in guaranteed salary for 2016/17, when preliminary projections show the salary cap surging to $89MM. An estimated starting salary for Durant in his next contract, based on that figure, would come in around $25MM. That would entail roughly $54MM for just three players, since Wall and Gortat are currently the only Wizards under guaranteed contracts for 2016/17. Nene is set to become a free agent that summer, and Otto Porter has a rookie scale team option for 2016/17 that season that the Wizards will surely pick up by the deadline to do so, which comes this year on October 31st. That’s also the last day the team can give an extension to Beal.

The Wizards are reportedly committed to giving Beal the max, and coach Randy Wittman signaled this week that the team intends to keep him around for the foreseeable future. The team has apparently been planning an extension for Beal for quite some time, but a five-year extension this summer is out of the question, since Washington already made Wall its Designated Player. The Wizards could sign Beal for five seasons if they wait until he hits restricted free agency after next season, and as Ken Berger of CBSSports.com noted, that would mean a significantly lower cap hold for Beal entering the summer of 2016, affording the team greater flexibility to chase Durant and others.

Regardless of when it happens, a max arrangement for Beal would mean he’d be making significantly more per season than Wall does, since the max salaries are escalating right along with the salary cap. The max for Beal would start at around an estimated $21MM, about $4MM more than Wall is scheduled to make in 2016/17, the season in which Beal’s next deal, whether in the form of an extension or a new contract, will begin. That might be too much for the shooting guard, even in the adjusted NBA economics that the surging salary cap will bring about, particularly given that he’s never posted a PER as high as 15.0, the mark of an average player. That metric is unfair to Beal, since he’s clearly more valuable than it suggests, but in any case, the Wizards seem poised to make a deeply consequential investment in the Mark Bartelstein client.

Washington didn’t make the progress in the postseason it might have hoped for this season, but the franchise is still in a much better position than it had been for many years, and more importantly, still seemingly a contender for Durant. Upgrades this summer would further the cause of attracting a superstar when the Wizards will have money to play with in 2016, but Washington is largely boxed in financially for now. A creative approach from the front office would help, but patience will be the key word for Grunfeld and company this summer.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The cap hold for Pierce would be $6,366,000 if he opts out.
2 — The cap hold for Temple would be $947,276 if he opts out, but he said he’s likely to opt in.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

Southeast Notes: Grant, Hornets, Heat

Notre Dame point guard Jerian Grant tells Hoops Rumors (Twitter link) that he’ll be working out for the Hornets on June 8th.  That audition will mark just the second team workout for Grant, who previously worked out for the Pacers.

Grant and his agent are hearing (link) that he could go as high as No. 8 with teams estimating his range to be somewhere between No. 8 and No. 20.  He added that based on those rumblings, it sounds unlikely that he’ll be available for teams selecting beyond No. 22.  Stay tuned for Grant’s entire conversation with Hoops Rumors as a part of our Draft Prospect Q&A series which also features conversations with Cameron Payne, Richaun Holmes, and more.

Here’s today’s look at the Southeast Division..

  • Historically, the No. 10 pick — owned by the Heat this year — has produced plenty of high-caliber, rotation-worthy players, as Couper Moorhead of Heat.com writes.  Some of the most notable players to come off the board at No. 10 include Paul Pierce, Eddie Jones, Jason Terry, and Joe Johnson.  In recent years, Brook Lopez, Andrew Bynum, Paul George, and Brandon Jennings have heard their names called at No. 10.
  • Heat president Pat Riley has indicated that he’ll be looking for perimeter defending and three-point shooting in the draft, Joseph Goodman of the Miami Herald writes.  In a perfect world, Riley has said he would like a player similar to Warriors shooting guard Klay Thompson, who was the 11th pick of the 2011 draft.
  • The Magic weren’t thrilled to land at No. 5, but GM Rob Hennigan and CEO Alex Martins put a positive spin on it, as Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel writes.  “We feel good about it,” Hennigan said. “We stayed where we expected to stay. Luckily, we didn’t move back, so we’ll take the hand that was dealt to us and certainly make the most of the pick we have.”
  • Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel is less bullish about the talent available at No. 5 and he feels that the Magic should dangle the pick in a trade.
  • More from Schmitz, who looked back at Kyle O’Quinn‘s season.  Fellow Sentinel scribe Josh Robbins reported last month that the Magic will make O’Quinn the qualifying offer necessary for them to be able to match offers for him in free agency this summer.

2014/15 D-League Usage Report: Raptors

The relationship between the NBA and the D-League continues to grow, and 17 NBA franchises currently have one-to-one D-League affiliates amongst the 18 D-League teams. The remaining 13 NBA teams shared the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this season. We at Hoops Rumors will be recapping each team’s use of the D-League this season, looking at assignments and recalls as well as the players signed out of the D-League. We’ll continue onward with a look back at how the Raptors utilized the D-League during the 2014/15 campaign…

D-League Team: Fort Wayne Mad Ants

Affiliation Type: Shared

D-League Team Record: 28-22

Number of NBA Players Assigned To D-League: 2

Total D-League Assignments: 4

Player Stats While On Assignment:

  • Bruno Caboclo: 2 assignments, 7 games, 3.4 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 0.7 BPG. .290/.333/1.000.
  • Lucas Nogueira: 2 assignments, 4 games, 8.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG. .429/.000/.500.

D-League Signings

  • No D-League signings.

Assignment/Recall Log

The Contract Cost Of Each Lottery Pick

Stretch your imagination for a moment to envision the Thunder winning the lottery tonight, as they have only a slim 0.5% chance of doing. The first thought in the minds of GM Sam Presti and other Oklahoma City higher-ups will surely be one of elation. The second thought may force them to swallow hard.

The rookie scale contract for the No. 1 overall pick this year will be worth more than $25.7MM over its four-year span if his team pays him 120% of the rookie scale amount, as is almost certain to happen. That’s about $16.1MM more than the approximately $9.6MM the rookie deal for the 14th overall pick will likely be worth. Naturally, that would be water under the bridge if the top pick turns out to be a superstar, but it seems that for every Anthony Davis, there’s an Anthony Bennett. The costs increase with each rung up the lottery ladder, and while most teams would surely celebrate a leap in draft position tonight, a higher pick carries consequences, particularly for teams like the Thunder, who already seem destined to pay the tax next season.

Below is a look at each lottery pick and the cost of the rookie scale contract associated with it, assuming that the team will pay the standard 120% of the scale amounts. Only the first two seasons of these deals are guaranteed, but it would be quite surprising if a team declined either its third or fourth year team option on its contract with a lottery pick.

contractcostofeachlotterypick

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more on the lottery, check out each team’s odds for each pick, and read our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry to see how the lottery works.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Jimmy Butler ($5,021,870) — $4,433,683 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (22nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $60,160,202
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,435,480
  • Options: $2,854,940
  • Cap Holds: $12,399,828
  • Total: $76,850,450

Most Bulls fans would probably have been ecstatic if you told them a year ago that their team would sign a free agent who’d score 18.5 points per game this season, that Nikola Mirotic would finish second in Rookie of the Year Voting, and that Derrick Rose would play in every playoff game. Add that Jimmy Butler would take a massive leap offensively, average 20.0 PPG, and win the Most Improved Player award, and those fans might have begun scouting locations in Grant Park for the championship celebration. Instead, a cloud of gloom seems to hang over the franchise in spite of all the positives that happened in the past year. Management is nearing an ugly split with coach Tom Thibodeau, and the sting of a missed opportunity in the playoffs is such that it’s left some, including Grantland’s Zach Lowe, to wonder if we’ve seen the last of the Bulls as we know them.

NBA: Playoffs-Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What seems almost certain now is that Thibodeau won’t be back. Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg appears to be the team’s first choice to replace the former Coach of the Year, but Hoiberg is only a month removed from open heart surgery, and there’s some doubt that he wants to embrace the NBA pressure for this coming season. One source told Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck that Warriors assistant Alvin Gentry is the favorite for the job, but he’s tied up with Golden State’s run for a title, and there’s no telling if he wants to try to work with a front office that apparently can’t get along with the well-respected Thibs. Bulls lead assistant Adrian Griffin is an intriguing in-house candidate, but he’s never been a head coach on any level.

Whoever coaches the Bulls next season will likely have to reckon with the notion that as strong Chicago’s roster is, Cleveland’s seems even stronger. The Cavs beat the Bulls without Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao for the entire series, without J.R. Smith for the first two games, and without whatever asset they’re poised to reap from the unusually valuable Brendan Haywood contract. Pau Gasol, that 18.5 PPG scorer the Bulls picked up in free agency last summer, turns 35 in July. Executives around the league apparently aren’t convinced that Joakim Noah will ever again be healthy enough to perform at his peak level. Rose looked at times like his pre-injury self in the playoffs and averaged 20.3 points per game, but he missed 31 regular season games and he, too, doesn’t appear capable of regaining all that he once had.

The good news for the Bulls is that they have the power to retain Butler for at least next season, and at least the next three seasons barring the thoroughly unlikely outcome that Butler signs his qualifying offer, worth slightly less than $4.434MM. The Bulls can preclude any opposing team from tendering an offer sheet like the one Chandler Parsons signed in 2014, which includes a player option after year two, if they make a maximum qualifying offer alongside Butler’s standard qualifying offer. The maximum qualifying offer is a five-year guaranteed deal for the max with full 7.5% raises and no option clauses. It sounds like the Bulls already have that kind of offer in mind anyway, and executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson has said Chicago will match all other offers, so Butler seems destined to remain with the Bulls for the foreseeable future.

Still, even securing Butler this summer will come with a tinge of regret for the team, since he and agent Happy Walters would reportedly have been willing to settle for an extension with salaries between $12.5MM and $13MM this past fall, when the team held the line at $11MM a year. The starting salary in a new max deal for Butler would likely approach $16MM. Sign Butler to the max, and Chicago’s staring at some $76MM in guaranteed salary for only eight players on the roster. That doesn’t include starting small forward Mike Dunleavy, who’s hitting unrestricted free agency, Kirk Hinrich‘s nearly $2.9MM player option, or the team’s draft pick this year, which comes at No. 22. The tax line is projected to be $81.6MM, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t known to be enthusiastic about shelling out extra money on his payroll. Reinsdorf might be particularly eager to keep costs in check after paying $13.549MM to the amnestied Carlos Boozer this year on top of the team’s more than $67.4MM in cap hits.

Chicago has little recourse to avoid the tax unless it feels as though an alternative to Dunleavy at small forward is already on the roster or unless it pulls off a salary-clearing trade. Doug McDermott didn’t win Thibodeau’s confidence in his rookie season, averaging 8.9 minutes per game across only 36 appearances, but last year’s 11th overall pick still holds promise as a potential solution at the three spot. Tony Snell showed improvement as he took on an increased role this past season, so perhaps he’s ready to take another leap into the starting lineup on the wing alongside Butler. Chicago could go big and start Mirotic or Taj Gibson at the three, though that would be a rather radical move in today’s NBA.

Gibson’s name comes up more often in trade speculation than in suggestions that he should start these days after his playing time receded this year. That reduced burn was largely a function of the acquisitions of Gasol and Mirotic, since there are only so many frontcourt minutes to go around. Still, his PER held steady at 16.1, virtually mirroring last season’s 16.0, a number he posted amid the most expansive role of his career as the Bulls de-emphasized Boozer. Gibson’s $8.5MM salary and his ability to start for another team make him a logical trade candidate, and the Bucks and Raptorsamong others, seemed interested. However, talks never appeared to get very far, signaling that Chicago didn’t have much inclination to part with him.

Another mechanism of breaking up the frontcourt logjam would be to move Gasol, whose trade value may never be higher than it is now in the wake of a renaissance season. His contract is ostensibly even more attractive to opposing teams than Gibson’s is, as it calls for him to make nearly $7.449MM next season with a player option worth almost $7.77MM in 2016/17. That would make him a fit for a team even if he were only playing at the level of a rotation-caliber reserve. However, the Bulls would be stuck paying a trade kicker worth $1,117,314 if they were to trade Gasol this summer, and it’s difficult to envision another team coming up with a fair package in exchange that would lessen Chicago’s salary burden for next season.

Trading Noah is another possibility, but not one that seems like it would be all that attractive to the Bulls, either. Chicago would be selling low on the 2013/14 All-NBA First Team center who’s been as much a part of the fabric of the Bulls as anyone. The continued presence of Noah would help keep the locker room together amid transition from Thibodeau to the next coach. Noah’s contract is up after next season, so if he fails to return to top form, the Bulls wouldn’t have any further commitment tying them to him.

Noah’s deal coming off the books isn’t the only reason why the team will have much more flexibility after next season than it does after this one. The sudden jump in the salary cap and the tax line will make it much easier for the Bulls to avoid tax penalties, meaning that a venture into the tax this season would set up as a one-year phenomenon that wouldn’t put the team in line to pay repeat-offender penalties anytime soon. Chicago has only paid the tax once in its history, and this season’s Boozer payment has been an added burden. Still, the league’s $24 billion TV deal brings the promise of greater revenue than ever, and with it, the capacity for owners to shell out even more for talent, even on top of what the rising salary cap will compel them to pay.

Ultimately, the decision about whether to make a concerted effort to avoid the tax or to move in the other direction and keep the team intact may well rest largely in the front office’s read on the degree of separation between this team’s title chances in the next few years and those of the Cavs. It’s conceivable that Paxson and GM Gar Forman will conclude that this roster just isn’t capable of scaling those last hurdles to a championship. The apparent urge to move on from Thibodeau is either a signal from management that it feels like another coach would help bring the team that extra step closer or that the club has to rebuild to some degree and thus it isn’t worth putting up with whatever it is Thibs does that’s so irksome. Last year, the Bulls looked outside of themselves, to Carmelo Anthony, to Love and finally to Gasol, to move ahead. The summer ahead will be a time for Chicago to look inward, and it’ll say much about the way the Bulls perceive themselves.

Cap Footnotes

1 — The Bulls waived Hamilton in July 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
2 — Moore’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 25th.
3 — Bairstow’s salary is partially guaranteed for $425K.
4 — The cap hold for Hinrich would be $5,190,800 if he opts out.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.

St. John’s Phil Greene Gunning For NBA

If you looked only at his box scores, you would never know that Phil Greene played hurt for the bulk of his four-year career at St. John’s.  His teammates, however, knew what he was dealing with.  Not wanting to let his locker room down, Greene refused to sit out and heal up, choosing instead to battle through the pain. True to his demeanor, Greene didn’t make a lot of noise about his injuries either.

I call him the quiet assassin,” former St. John’s coach Steve Lavin said between sips of coffee at a cafe in lower Manhattan. “That’s because he plays within the framework of our schemes and, yet, he had a propensity to step up in crunch time. He made game changing plays, whether it was dagger three-point shots, driving to the basket, or outside shots.”

The guard gave those kinds of performances throughout his tenure in New York, but he really showed what he could do in his senior season when he was 100% healthy.  Up until that point, Greene was like a live action Operation board.  First, the guard hurt his shooting wrist in his freshman year. Then, as a sophomore, he suffered a hip labrum tear.  Prior to his junior year, Greene went under the knife to fix that tear, but he admits that he rushed himself back to action a little too fast.

More than once, Lavin went to Greene and encouraged him to consider a taking a medical redshirt year. The coach also involved Greene’s parents in the conversation, but the guard couldn’t bear to spend a season on the sidelines. Ultimately, Lavin left the decision in Greene’s hands, and he decided to play through the pain.

When asked, Greene wasn’t sure how to quantify how banged up he was, but he knows he was well under 100% for his first three Red Storm seasons.  In hindsight, Greene wishes that he wouldn’t have tried to play the hero.  The guard might have been playing at MSG, but no one expected him to put on a Willis Reed impersonation.

Of course, I probably would have taken some time off if I could have done it over again. I should have had my surgery done sophomore year and come back 100%,” Greene explained. “But, now, I’m 100%. I haven’t had a single thing bother me all year long and I’m ready for what’s ahead of me.

Even with his setbacks in those three years, Greene still managed to be one of the top contributors on a talented St. John’s team. In his senior campaign, Greene got to show the world what he’s truly capable of when healthy. The 22-year-old went out on a high note, averaging 12.9 PPG with a 39.4% rate of success beyond the arc.  He was even stronger in conference play, leading the Big East in intra-conference three-point percentage (45.8%) with 14.5 PPG against Big East foes.

Greene had too many big games to count in his last collegiate season, but Lavin and the guard produced the same two answers when asked to list his very best performances. One came against Syracuse when he led the charge on a late game 17-2 run to help St. John’s down the Orange at the Carrier Dome for the first time in 16 years. The other was Greene’s final regular season college game at MSG, when he dropped 26 points on rival Georgetown.

We hate Georgetown. We hate them. We don’t like them at all,” said Greene, not wanting to leave any ambiguity on the subject. “So, to be at the Garden for my last game and put up 26 points, it was an amazing night.”

Lavin, too, fondly remembers that game.

Georgetown beat us bad the last time, so we absolutely smashed them there,” the coach said.

With brilliant scoring performances, late game heroics, and a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance, Greene closed out his St. John’s career in style. And, it turns out, NBA teams have taken notice. According to agent Keith Kreiter, Greene has already secured multiple workout invitations and a couple of teams are already showing intense interest in him. As of today, Greene is not featured on ESPN’s or DraftExpress’ mock drafts, but come June, he could very well find a place on the only big board that really counts.

Lavin describes Greene as a player who boasts shot making as his “greatest strength,” but also a player with a very well-rounded skill set.  In his senior year, he improved upon his ability to attack the basket and draw fouls, which made him even more dangerous on the offensive end. The Chicago native is also a keen ball distributor and Lavin cites his low assist-to-turnover ratio as one of his most impressive stats. In a league where the ability of a point guard to shoot and score is more important than ever, Lavin sees a bright future for his former pupil.

He’s fundamentally a very solid point guard, sure, but to me he’s a guard, period. You can put him on the floor and he can pass, catch, handle the ball, and he can create his own shot. One of his greatest strengths is his ability to create his own shot through footwork and his ball handling,” Lavin said.  “In the NBA, you’re sometimes isolated with not a lot of room, so your ability to create separation from a defender and make shots is valuable.  Phil has shown that he can do that.”

Lavin has also been impressed by Greene’s ability to heat up and take over a game.  The coach explained that on several occasions, the guard has given St. John’s scoring stretches of 9 or 10 points at a critical juncture of the game and he does it without forcing offense.

You could say he’s like a smaller Sleepy Floyd,” Lavin said when asked for an NBA comparison.  “Sleepy might have a couple of inches on Phil, but in terms of the ability to knock down shots from a distance and beating opponents off the bounce and nailing mid-range shots, that’s what Phil can do.

Greene can knock down shots from the outside, but he is also a gifted dunker.  One of his latest highlight reel slams had him throwing down a picture perfect alley-oop off a bounce pass from teammate D’Angelo Harrison.  The youngster’s primary focus is obviously on contributing in the NBA, but he also has a secondary goal on his check list.

I’ve thought about being in the dunk contest,” Greene said. “I think I could win it.

Prospect Profile: Willie Cauley-Stein

Willie Cauley-Stein brings some clarity to a process normally based upon on projections and expectations, at least on one end of the basketball court. There’s no dispute or concern about Cauley-Stein’s ability to be a defensive impact player in the NBA. He’s got all the tools and physical gifts to become one of the league’s premier defenders. That’s why the 7-footer is ranked as the No. 2 center in the draft behind Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and a virtual lock to be selected in the Top 10. He’s currently rated No. 8 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Insider Big Board, while Jonathan Givony’s DraftExpress slots him at No. 6 overall.

Willie Cauley-Stein

Courtesy USA Today Sports Images

The University of Kentucky product can not only defend other big men, he can handle wing players because of his quickness and length. He’s also one of the very few big men who can switch out on a point guard without that situation being an obvious mismatch. With most NBA teams relying heavily on pick-and-rolls to create space and quality looks, Cauley-Stein can switch, hedge and recover on those plays with aplomb, which will often force the offense to take low-percentage shots with the shot clock winding down.

He can also create turnovers and provide rim protection. He led the Wildcats in steals in both his sophomore and junior seasons and recorded 106 blocks during his sophomore campaign. That figure dropped to 67 last season, partially due to Kentucky’s ability to seal off the paint and also because Cauley-Stein had another shotblocker, Karl Anthony-Towns, patrolling the lane alongside him. With his long arms and ability to cover so much ground, Cauley-Stein should have no trouble altering and blocking shots in situations where he’s a help defender. Add up those attributes and it’s no wonder he’s already being compared to the likes of DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond as a defensive force.

If there are any issues regarding Cauley-Stein defensively, it would be his frame and defensive rebounding. His needs to get stronger to compete physically with other post players on a nightly basis, though that can be said for virtually any big man entering the NBA. A slightly bigger concern is whether Cauley-Stein truly likes to mix it up underneath. As Givony points out, he can be outworked in the paint at times and he doesn’t consistently establish good box-out position. That explains why his defensive rebounding rate was a relatively modest 6.6 per 40 minutes in college.

There were no surprises regarding Cauley-Stein’s physical attributes at the draft combine. He measured a tad over 6’11” without shoes and 7’0” wearing them. His wingspan was an impressive 7’3” and he came to Chicago in excellent condition with a body fat content of 6.3%.

If Cauley-Stein had any semblance of an offensive game, he could have been the top pick in the draft. But that’s where the uncertainty regarding Cauley-Stein kicks in. The word raw is frequently mentioned by draft experts, scouts and front-office personnel when the subject of his offensive game is brought up. His contributions on that end mainly consist of dunks and layups created by guard penetration, offensive rebounds and transition opportunities. He averaged 8.9 points last season in the Wildcats’ balanced attack.

Kentucky didn’t look for Cauley-Stein to score on postups and midrange shots. As a result, he failed to develop any signature moves or carve out any sweet spots where defenders had to respect him. He made just one-third of his two-point jump shots in his junior year.
Without getting frequent touches, Cauley-Stein has not developed a knack for passing out of the post or finding open shooters and cutters. He averaged less than one assist per game during his three college seasons.

One area where he did show steady improvement was his free throw shooting. He went from a brutal 37.2% as a freshman to 48.2% the next year to 61.7% last season. Even if he only improves marginally as a foul shooter as a pro, that will be good enough to discourage opponents from intentionally fouling him.

Another knock against Cauley-Stein is his motor. He has often been criticized for looking disinterested at times and taking plays off, though he played with more intensity as his college career unfolded. The lack of focus at times has many scouts wondering if Cauley-Stein has a love for the game.

As an unnamed GM told NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper, Cauley-Stein “leaves you wanting. You see the talent there, but you always think that there’s more he can give.”

Cauley-Stein has a difficult time understanding what all the fuss on this issue.

“If I didn’t love it, I wouldn’t put my body on the line, I wouldn’t run the way I do, I wouldn’t jump the way I do,” he told Scott-Cooper. “I’d be scared to do those things if I didn’t love the game. It just doesn’t make sense to me the way I play that I don’t love the game.”

There’s enough love over Cauley-Stein’s defensive prowess to quell most of the concerns about his shortcomings, perceived or otherwise. He should have a long NBA career, even if he settles for simply being a defensive stopper. Depending on team needs and draft-day trades, Cauley-Stein could even wind up moving into the top five. That’s the value of offering clarity in a sea of uncertainty.