Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 12/16/15

The Heat have made a significant investment in combo guard Goran Dragic. First by giving up two future first-round picks to acquire him from the Suns, then by re-signing him to a five-year, $85MM contract as a free agent this past summer. Things haven’t quite worked out as Miami envisioned when it decided to pair Dragic alongside Dwyane Wade in the backcourt, and the team hasn’t found much consistency this season despite the strong play it is receiving from Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. Dragic has looked remarkably tentative on the court, and the Heat’s offense has run more smoothly when Wade and Dragic haven’t shared the floor.

This brings me to the topic for today: Can the backcourt of Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic flourish, or will Miami need to make a change?

Do you think the duo are merely experiencing a temporary downturn and will pick up their play as the season progresses, or are the two players’ games not a good match? If you believe a change needs to be made, then let’s hear your best solutions to the problem. Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on the matter. We look forward to what you have to say.

Hoops Rumors Chat Transcript

4:02pm: We hosted the weekly live chat.

3:00pm: Trade talk, as expected, has picked up across the league, with Tuesday the day that most (but not all) offseason signees became eligible to be dealt. A pair of the most significant stories from the past week nonetheless involved stability, as the Sixers and coach Brett Brown struck a deal on an extension to keep him under contract through 2018/19, while Andrew Bogut told USA Today’s Sam Amick that he and the Warriors are planning to talk extension in the offseason. Still, if the moves of the past year are any indication, it won’t be long until some players start changing teams.

Ranking Teams By Number Of Trades In Past Year

Nearly half the teams in the league have been involved in five or more trades in the past calendar year, as the Celtics lead the way with 10 swaps while the Bulls are the only team that failed to swing a deal. The unofficial opening of trades of trade season was Tuesday, when dozens of players became eligible for inclusion in trades, and that December 15th date opened the gates to a whirlwind of activity a year ago. One trade this season preceded the date, as the Grizzlies and Heat hooked up on the Mario Chalmers deal last month, the earliest trade to take place in the month of November since 2008.

Chicago hasn’t made a trade since July 14th, 2014, when the Bulls shed salary in a pair of deals with the Mavericks and Magic, offloading Greg Smith and Anthony Randolph, plus future draft picks and cash, for draft-and-stash players.

All but the Bulls and the Lakers have participated in multiple swaps over the past year. It’s tough to conclude that either activity or inactivity breeds success, since the three teams that made the most trades — the Celtics, Sixers and Suns — have combined for a record of 26-51 while the Lakers and Bulls have gone 18-29 put together. However, four of the five teams that made only two trades have winning records this season, and that group includes the Warriors and Spurs, the teams with the best records in the league so far.

Here’s a look at the number of trades each team has executed since December 15th, 2014:

  1. Celtics: 10
  2. Sixers: 8
  3. Suns: 8
  4. Hornets: 6
  5. Pistons: 6
  6. Thunder: 6
  7. Timberwolves: 6
  8. Trail Blazers: 6
  9. Bucks: 5
  10. Cavaliers: 5
  11. Grizzlies: 5
  12. Knicks: 5
  13. Nuggets: 5
  14. Clippers: 4
  15. Magic: 4
  16. Hawks: 4
  17. Heat: 4
  18. Nets: 4
  19. Pelicans: 4
  20. Rockets: 4
  21. Kings: 3
  22. Pacers: 3
  23. Wizards: 3
  24. Jazz: 2
  25. Mavericks: 2
  26. Raptors: 2
  27. Spurs: 2
  28. Warriors: 2
  29. Lakers: 1
  30. Bulls: 0

Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 12/15/15

Lakers coach Byron Scott plans on continuing his strategy of limiting the minutes of the team’s younger players despite the team’s poor record, according to Robert Morales of the Long Beach Press-Telegram. Scott’s philosophy has not been met with unanimous enthusiasm by fans of the team, nor the front office, which acknowledged the conflict between Kobe Bryant’s high usage and the need for young players like D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle to see minutes and touches. Morales also noted that part of the team’s plan is to use Bryant as an example of the sort of work ethic they want their young players to adopt.

This brings me to today’s topic: What is your opinion of Byron Scott’s player usage thus far this season?

The argument could be made that Scott is paid to win basketball games, and since part of his job security is tied to his won-loss record, he should play who he believes gives him the best chance to win. Plus, with Bryant in his last season, should the team not try and milk the farewell tour for all that it’s worth? After all, he is making $25MM for the season, so Los Angeles may as well let him work for it. Of course, the other side of the debate is that the franchise needs to do all it can to develop its young assets. This will not only help in identifying areas that need to be addressed via the draft and free agency. Plus, I’m sure many Lakers fans would rather see Russell and Randle on the court as much as possible, warts and all.

Which side of the fence do you sit on? Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts, opinions or rants against whomever in the Lakers organization you wish. We look forward to what you have to say.

2016/17 Salary Cap Projection: Thunder

The NBA’s salary cap for 2015/16 has been set at $70MM, which is an 11% increase from last season, and the luxury tax line is fixed at $84.74MM. The last cap projection from the league prior to the official numbers being announced had been $67.1MM, and the projection for the tax line had been $81.6MM. Many league executives and agents believe that the salary cap will escalate to a whopping $95MM for 2016/17, a higher figure than the league’s last projection of $89MM. This significant bump is a result of the league’s new $24 billion TV deal that kicks in just in time for next season.

The increase in the salary cap will almost assuredly set off a flurry of activity in the free agent market next summer, and it will also make it easier than ever for teams to deal away their higher-priced stars. Prudent executives are acutely aware of exactly how much cap room they have to play with, not just for the current campaign, but for next season and beyond as well. While the exact amount of 2016/17’s salary cap won’t be announced until next summer, it always pays to know just how much salary is on the books for each franchise. With this in mind, we at Hoops Rumors will be breaking down the projected 2016/17 financial commitments for each franchise, and we’ll continue onward with a look at the Oklahoma City Thunder:

  • Fully Guaranteed Salary Commitments: $65,906,301
  • Partially Guaranteed Salary Commitments: $0
  • Non Guaranteed Salary Commitments: $3,488,000
  • Total Projected Salary Cap Commitments: $69,394,301

If the salary cap were to fall in line with the projection of $89MM, Oklahoma City would have approximately $19,605,699 in cap space, or $25,605,699 if the cap were to be set at the higher mark of $95MM. Again, these are merely predictions until the exact cap amounts are announced, and they are not meant to illustrate the exact amount that the team will have available to spend this coming offseason.

Oklahoma City will also need to make a decision regarding Dion Waiters, who is eligible to become a restricted free agent next summer. If the Thunder wish to retain the right to match any offer sheet the player were to receive the team would need to submit a qualifying offer worth $6,777,589. That number would merely be a placeholder until Waiters either inked a new deal or signed his qualifying offer, which would then set him up for unrestricted free agency the following offseason.

Trades and long-term free agent signings made during the season will also have a significant impact on the figures above, and we’ll be updating these posts to reflect the new numbers after any signings and trades have been made official.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

How Late December 2014 Trades Affected Teams

Today is the first day that dozens of players are eligible for trades, a point on the NBA calendar that traditionally leads to player movement. Three trades took place in the 10 days following December 15th last year, including the blockbuster Rajon Rondo move. We’ll look at how those swaps have turned out for each of the teams involved:

December 18th

The worst-case scenario of the Rondo trade played out for Dallas, as he and coach Rick Carlisle clashed and the situation became so dire that the Mavs and Rondo essentially parted ways during the playoffs. Rondo went down with what was announced as a back injury, one that was reportedly a ruse that allowed the point guard to save face. Rondo departed in free agency for the Kings, but the Mavs are still benefiting from their less-heralded acquisition in the deal. Powell, the 45th overall pick in 2014, is in the Dallas rotation, averaging 8.9 points and an impressive 6.3 rebounds in 19.8 minutes per game.

This deal served largely as the catalyst for a whirlwind of additional trades for Boston, which pulled off six more swaps between this one and the deadline. One of them sent away Wright, for a protected first-round pick with a strong chance of turning into two seconds, and another sent away Nelson for Nate Robinson, whom Boston waived. Crowder emerged as a key part of the Celtics in the second half of last season, and the team showed a clear desire to keep it that way, committing five years to him in a new contract worth a total of $35MM in the offseason. The Dallas first-rounder didn’t convey this year, so it’s top-seven protected for 2016 and likely to be in Boston’s hands come June, unless the Celtics flip it.

December 19th

  • The Rockets get Corey Brewer and Alexey Shved.
  • The Timberwolves get Troy Daniels, Sacramento’s 2015 second-round pick as long as it’s within the top 49 picks (via Rockets), Houston’s 2016 second-round pick (top-45 protected), and $1MM cash (via Rockets).
  • The Sixers get Ronny Turiaf, Houston’s 2015 second-round pick, and the rights to Serhiy Lishchuk.

Only one player is still with the team that acquired him in this trade. That’s Brewer, and it took a new three-year, $23.421MM contract in the offseason for that to be the case. The signing hasn’t paid off yet, with Brewer averaging a career-worst 35.1% shooting this season. He nonetheless was a key part of Houston’s bench during the team’s run to the Western Conference Finals last season, unlike Shved, whom the team flipped to the Knicks along with two second-rounders for Pablo Prigioni. That move paid dividends for the Rockets when they were short on point guards in the playoffs, and Houston forwarded Prigioni to Denver in the Ty Lawson deal.

Daniels wasn’t long for Minnesota, as the Timberwolves sent him along with Mo Williams and cash to the Hornets for Gary Neal, who departed in free agency this summer, and Miami’s 2019 second-round pick. Minnesota still holds that pick and Houston’s 2016 second-rounder, but the Sacramento pick didn’t convey, since it didn’t come within the top 49 picks in the order.

The Sixers simply added Turiaf’s $1.5MM salary to their effort to reach the salary floor, since he was already out for the season because of hip surgery and was on an expiring contract. The rights to Lishchuk, an oft-traded draft-and-stash prospect, didn’t last long in Philadelphia either, as the Sixers conveyed them to the Clippers in January for Jared Cunningham, whom they immediately waived, plus $300K cash and the rights to Cenk Akyol, another draft-and-stash prospect who seems unlikely ever to play in the NBA. As ever, the key for Philadelphia was the second-round pick, but it didn’t wind up paying dividends. The Sixers used it on J.P. Tokoto, who reportedly let the Sixers know he was open to remaining unsigned for this season and becoming a draft-and-stash prospect. That didn’t happen, as Tokoto signed his required tender, forcing his way onto the preseason roster, and Philadelphia cut him before opening night, forfeiting his draft rights.

December 24th

The Pistons were just two days removed from shocking the NBA with their release of Josh Smith, and the acquisition of Tolliver followed along the same lines stylistically as Stan Van Gundy continued his transition toward a more modern, small-ball approach. Van Gundy didn’t play Mitchell at all during the first two months of the regular season, but Tolliver became a part of the rotation, averaging 7.7 points in 22.3 minutes per game and shooting 36.0% from 3-point range as a stretch four. Those numbers are off this season, in part because his long-range shooting has dipped to 31.9%, an ominous sign in a contract year. Mitchell didn’t play for Phoenix either, and a couple of weeks later, he was on waivers, as the team used the cap space it cleared in the trade to deal for Brandan Wright, who had just been involved in the Rondo swap.

Front Office Changes Since 2013 Offseason

The Sixers made waves last week when they hired Jerry Colangelo, a move that cuts into, if not usurps entirely, the power of GM Sam Hinkie. Half the teams in the league have undergone some sort of front office change since the 2013 offseason, when the Sixers hired Hinkie. Here’s a look at each of those moves:

  • Suns: Former president of basketball operations Lon Babby transitioned to an advisory role in August 2015. The move put GM Ryan McDonough in control.
  • Bucks: GM John Hammond has been around since 2008, but co-owner Marc Lasry indicated that coach Jason Kidd, whom the team hired in July 2014, has a sizable influence on personnel, and it’s clear to people around the league that Kidd is calling the shots in Milwaukee, as Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times recently told us.
  • Pistons: Hired Stan Van Gundy to coach the team and oversee player personnel in May 2014. Ken Catanella and George David ran the front office on an interim basis after the team parted ways with former president of basketball operations Joe Dumars in April 2014.
  • Hornets: Former president of basketball operations Rod Higgins resigned June 2014. That ostensibly left GM Rich Cho to run the front office, though owner Michael Jordan, vice chairman Curtis Polk, assistant GM Chad Buchanan and director of player personnel Larry Jordan all have some decision-making power, as Zach Lowe of ESPN.com detailed.
  • Clippers: Hired Doc Rivers as coach and senior vice president of basketball operations in June 2013, replacing a triumvirate of former vice president of basketball operations Gary Sacks, former coach Vinny Del Negro and former team president Andy Roeser. The Clippers changed Rivers’ title to coach and president of basketball operations in June 2014, when they hired Dave Wohl to serve as GM under Rivers.
  • Raptors: Hired Masai Ujiri as GM in May 2013, replacing former GM Bryan Colangelo.
  • Nuggets: Hired Tim Connelly as GM in June 2013, replacing GM Masai Ujiri, who left the team in May 2013.
  • Pacers: President of basketball operations Larry Bird returned to the Pacers in June 2013 after a year’s absence. He replaced Donnie Walsh, who held the president of basketball operations title while Bird was away.
  • Cavaliers: Fired GM Chris Grant and named assistant GM David Griffin interim GM in February 2014. They hired Griffin to the GM job on formal basis in May 2014.
  • Knicks: Hired Phil Jackson as team president in March 2014, placing him above GM Steve Mills. The Knicks had replaced Glen Grunwald with Mills in the GM role in September 2013.
  • Grizzlies: Restored power to GM Chris Wallace upon former CEO Jason Levien‘s resignation in May 2014.
  • Hawks: Installed coach Mike Budenholzer as the primary decision maker in the front office when former GM Danny Ferry took a leave of absence in September 2014. The Hawks added the title of president of basketball operations to Budenholzer’s title in June 2015, when Ferry resigned in a buyout deal.
  • Kings: Hired Pete D’Alessandro as GM in June 2013, replacing former GM Geoff Petrie. The Kings placed Vlade Divac on top of D’Alessandro on the organizational chart when they hired him as vice president of basketball and franchise operations in March 2015. The team changed Divac’s title to vice president of basketball operations and GM in August, after D’Alessandro left the team.
  • Timberwolves: GM Milt Newton assumed control of the front office when president of basketball operations Flip Saunders took a leave of absence in September, prior to Saunders’ death in October. The Wolves had hired Saunders in May 2013, replacing former GM David Kahn.

Slow Roster Churn Not Unprecedented For Hinkie

The Sixers have been uncharacteristically quiet on the transactions wire so far this season, but it’s not necessarily a signal that new chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo is putting a halt to the team’s roster shuffling. After all, Colangelo said the deal that brought him to the Sixers came together within the week leading up to his December 7th hiring, so that would mean that about a month went by with GM Sam Hinkie in charge of the front office by himself. Between opening night and the end of November, the Sixers made only one roster move, signing Phil Pressey via the hardship provision. Pressey’s release upon the expiration of that exception is the only change the team has made to its roster since.

Philadelphia had already made four signings, placed five players on waivers, and pulled off one trade by this time last season. Tuesday is the one-year anniversary of yet another set of Sixers moves, as Furkan Aldemir replaced Ronald Roberts Jr. In a twist, the Sixers released Aldemir before the regular season began this year but eyed him for the roster spot that ultimately went to Pressey.

The relative stability of the Sixers roster is reminiscent of Hinkie’s first season in charge of the team. Philadelphia only made one signing and placed one player on waivers between opening night and New Year’s Day in 2013/14. It wasn’t until the leaguewide guarantee date in January 2014 that Philadelphia’s roster carousel really started to turn.

It remains to be seen how Colangelo will change the team’s approach, but just because the Sixers aren’t making a bunch of moves now, it doesn’t mean the team is abandoning “the process” of its radical rebuilding. Here’s a look at the changes the Sixers made to the roster each of the past three seasons between opening night and December 15th, a common trigger date for player movement across the NBA. (Bear in mind that the Sixers could still add to their total for this season):

2015

2014

2013

2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

Tuesday is the unofficial start of trade season in the NBA, but most if not all of the moves that take place will happen with this summer’s free agency in mind. So, we’ll update our Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings before players start changing places.

It promises to be a wild offseason, with the salary cap projected to catapult to $89MM. Many executives and agents told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News they believe it’ll go as high as $95MM. The common narrative is that teams will have more money to spend than worthy free agents on which to spend it, though the top of the class is as strong as it gets, with Kevin Durant and LeBron James.

Durant has maintained mystery surrounding his free agency, though he’s given no indication he wants out of Oklahoma City. James almost certainly won’t leave Cleveland. Three others among our top 10 free agents are restricted, giving their respective teams the edge to keep them. Still, intrigue remains, particularly with fluctuating values. Joakim Noah, Timofey Mozgov and Roy Hibbert opened the season in our top 20, but you won’t find their names below.

We’ll break down each member of this month’s top 10 2016 free agents here:

  1. Kevin Durant – Encouraging signs for the prize of next summer’s free agent class include his rebounding, as he’s pulling down far more rebounds per 36 minutes than ever before, and his 3-point accuracy, which is at a career-best 44.3%. Even more encouraging for the Thunder is the near silence in the past few weeks regarding his free agency. Last time: No. 1.
  2. LeBron James (player option) – James, by contrast, is having the worst 3-point shooting season of his career, having connected on just 28% of his attempts thus far. And despite his remark that Kevin Love would be the focal point of the Cavs offense this year, James is taking 19.9 shots per game, his most since 2009/10, the last season before “The Decision.” Last time: No. 2.
  3. Mike Conley – It’s been an off year of sorts for the 28-year-old point guard, who’s never shot so poorly from the floor as this season’s 40.2% mark. He’s never had quite as high a percentage of his shots come from behind the arc, either. Still, he has significantly more assists and fewer turnovers than he did last season. Last time: No. 3.
  4. Andre Drummond (restricted) – He’s slowed a bit from his early-season 20-20 pace, but he’s still averaging more rebounds per game than anyone since ex-Piston Dennis Rodman grabbed 16.8 in 1994/95 for the Spurs. He’s fueled the Pistons to a 14-11 mark even after the departure of Greg Monroe. Still, Drummond is almost certain to remain in Detroit. Last time: No. 5.
  5. Al Horford – The Hawks center is averaging more points per game than Dwight Howard, has a higher PER, and rates better in Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus and ESPN’s Real Plus minus. Thus, Horford gets the last spot in the top five. Last time: No. 6.
  6. Dwight Howard (player option) – The good news is that Howard is playing in back-to-backs again. The bad news is that he scored 4 points in the second game of his most recent back-to-back. Still, it seems unlikely that Howard would opt in and miss perhaps his last chance at a max contract this summer. Last time: No. 4.
  7. Bradley Beal (restricted) – Health is a concern for Beal just as it is for Howard, but unless Beal’s stress reaction lingers much past two weeks, it’s tough to see the Wizards not making the max offer they’ve been planning on. The 22-year-old is averaging a career-high 19.8 points per game. Last time: No. 7.
  8. DeMar DeRozan (player option) – DeRozan would be higher on this list if not for his lack of a 3-point shot. He scores in plenty of other ways, and the Raptors get enough 3-point shooting from elsewhere in the lineup to make it work. It’s not a given that other teams could make it work just as well, though. Last time: No. 8.
  9. Hassan Whiteside — The 26-year-old has proven last year was no fluke, and he’s blocking shots like no one since Dikembe Mutombo, the last player to average more than four blocks per game, in 1995/96. Curiously, the Heat aren’t playing him in crunch time, but he still has a strong chance to go from the minimum salary this season to the maximum salary next year. Last time: Out of top 10.
  10. Harrison Barnes (restricted) – The Warriors only failed to outscore an opponent by 10 or more points five times in the 17 games Harrison Barnes played this year. They’ve failed to do so just as many times in the eight games Barnes has missed with a sprained ankle. Last time: No. 9.

We don’t always carry the rankings past the top 10, but we’re doing so this time. The next 10 leads off with a pair of resurgent veterans and a player who’s appeared to benefit from an offseason trade:

11. Rajon Rondo
12. Dwyane Wade
13. Nicolas Batum
14. Pau Gasol (player option)
15. Al Jefferson
16. Chandler Parsons (player option)
17. Ryan Anderson
18. Jordan Clarkson (restricted)
19. Evan Fournier (restricted)
20. Deron Williams (player option)

See all the previous editions of our rankings here. See the full list of 2016 free agents here.

Which player do you think should be higher, lower, or off the list entirely? Leave a comment and debate the merits of the 2016 free agents.

Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 12/12/15

The Sixers are reportedly talking to former NBA coach Mike D’Antoni about becoming an associate head coach. D’Antoni has a long relationship with Jerry Colangelo, who joined Philadelphia’s front office this week. With Colangelo and D’Antoni working together both in Phoenix and with USA Basketball, this is an early sign that Colangelo is exerting his newly acquired influence.

D’Antoni has been a head coach with the Nuggets, Suns, Knicks and Lakers, but he doesn’t seem to be a threat to current head coach Brett Brown, who agreed to a two-year contract extension on Friday. Brown is now signed through the end of 2018/19 season, and the front office has expressed support for him despite a 38-149 record since taking over the job before the start of the 2013/14 season.

The Sixers talk often about “trusting the process,” but there are indications that fans, players and even the league is becoming frustrated with the team’s non-competitiveness. The presence of Colangelo in the front office and D’Antoni on the bench would be signs that patience with the process is wearing thin in some circles.

So here’s the topic for today’s Shootaround: Are the Sixers in danger of having too many competing voices, both in the front office and on the bench?

Will Colangelo take too much of the decision making away from GM Sam Hinkie? And would D’Antoni be an experienced complement to Brown or would he give Sixers players the sensation of having two head coaches?

Please share your thoughts and opinions on the subject in the comments section. We look forward to hearing what you have to say.