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Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

May 7th, 2015 at 10:32am CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Kawhi Leonard ($7,235,148) — $4,433,683 qualifying offer
  • Cory Joseph ($5,058,153) — $3,034,892 qualifying offer
  • Aron Baynes ($3,946,300) — $2,596,250 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (26th overall)
  • 2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $34,159,326
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,185,784
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $54,332,375
  • Total: $89,677,485

It seems like the Spurs have been competing in the Finals or Western Conference Finals every season since Tim Duncan arrived back in 1997/98, but there were three times before this year when Duncan’s Spurs lost in the first round. It’s the second one that’s perhaps most instructive. The 2008/09 Spurs managed to go 54-28 in the regular season with Manu Ginobili around for only 44 of those games and none in the playoffs. They fell in five games to the sixth-seeded Mavs in the first round, and in the summer that followed, San Antonio signed Richard Jefferson to a four-year deal worth nearly $39MM. The Spurs put up their worst record of the Duncan era the next season and grew to regret their rare signing of a significant free agent.

February 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (21) looks on during the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Spurs 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Now, it appears the Spurs are plotting an even more serious foray into the free agent market, having reportedly made Marc Gasol their top target most of this season and more recently developed apparent mutual interest in LaMarcus Aldridge. The dynamics are somewhat different now than they were in 2009, since Duncan and Ginobili are six years older and that much closer to the end. Ginobili suggested this week that he’s contemplating retirement more seriously than ever, and that his decision will hinge on Duncan’s. Both are set for free agency this summer, ostensibly making it that much easier for them to say goodbye to the NBA. Still, there were questions even in 2009 about how much longer either of them would last, or at least remain productive, and both were integral parts of San Antonio’s fifth championship in 2014, when Jefferson was already long gone.

Duncan and Ginobili — and Tony Parker, who turns 33 this month — won’t be around forever, but it wasn’t a free agent signing that took the Spurs from two first-round ousters in three years back onto the champion’s podium. It’s chiefly the shrewd acquisition of the draft rights to Kawhi Leonard in exchange for valued role player George Hill that put the Spurs back in title contention, though no one would have known it at the time of the trade in 2011.

A run at free agency this year has been in the works awhile. Spurs coach/president Gregg Popovich more or less acknowledged that this week in his end-of-season press conference, saying that he, GM R.C. Buford and company put this group together with the idea that this summer would represent an opportunity to make key decisions. San Antonio would be entering the offseason with even more uncertainty if Parker hadn’t signed a deal last summer to extend his contract, which was to have expired this year. He’s one of the few Spurs virtually guaranteed to return, and Leonard is, too, even though he’s about to enter restricted free agency. That Leonard didn’t sign an extension of his own in the fall has as much to do with the utility of keeping his cap hold small as anything else, and he reportedly has no plans to seek offer sheets. Even if he did, San Antonio would be expected to match, and as it is, it appears Leonard is destined to continue growing into the centerpiece of the Spurs.

The challenge for Popovich and Buford is in how to surround the Defensive Player of the Year with the talent necessary to keep the Spurs in the title hunt for next season and for years to come. It’ll require some cap gymnastics this summer. If Duncan and Ginobili retire, the Spurs could renounce their rights as well as the rights to every other free agent except Leonard, release Reggie Williams and his non-guaranteed contract, and take a draft-and-stash prospect at No. 26 and get him to agree in writing not to sign in 2015/16. That would leave the Spurs with $44,545,032 against the cap, a total that consists of the team’s guaranteed salary commitments, Leonard’s cap hold, and six additional cap holds equal to the rookie minimum salary that account for open roster spots. The cap is projected to come in at $67.1MM, so that would leave $22,554,968, enough to sign just about any free agent to a max deal, according to our max-salary approximations. There would be roughly $3.5MM worth of breathing room between the max for Aldridge and Gasol, who fall in the 30% max tier, and the hilt of San Antonio’s capacity to clear cap room without a trade.

Of course, the Spurs might like to draft someone who can contribute immediately, or at least be a part of the roster next season, and Duncan and Ginobili might want to come back at more than the minimum salary. Those hypotheticals make the summer ahead especially unpredictable. It’s quite conceivable that Duncan and Ginobili have already signaled to the Spurs what they’d like to receive on their next deals if they were to play again. The cheap three-year, $25MM contract that Dirk Nowitzki signed with the Mavs last summer perhaps sets the bar for Duncan, though it’s tougher to find an analogy for Ginobili. A deal with a starting salary in the range of the full $5.464MM mid-level exception would allow the Argentinian legend a concession to the only NBA franchise he’s known without forcing him to play for a pittance, though that’s only my speculation. Reasonable deals for Duncan and Ginobili such as those would approach a combined total of $14MM for next season. That would knock the Spurs out of the hunt for any sort of marquee free agent unless they can find trade partners willing to take on some combination of Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson without giving up salary in return.

None of this accounts for Danny Green, either. He was playing in the D-League when the Spurs signed him in March of 2011, and little more than four years later he’s a sought-after “three-and-D” type whom at least one executive wouldn’t mind paying $6MM a year, as Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops reported. It wouldn’t be altogether shocking for the soon-to-be 28-year-old who’s shot 42.3% over his four full seasons as a Spur to command more than that. No one would pass up a star for him, but he’s been an indelible part of the fabric as a starter on four straight title-contending rosters.

Marco Belinelli has played nearly as many minutes as Green over the past four regular seasons, and he’s another sharpshooting weapon who can spread the floor in San Antonio’s intricate offense. His two finest defensive seasons have come in a Spurs uniform, as Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus data shows, though he wasn’t as sharp on either end of the court this year as he was in 2013/14, and he saw his fewest minutes per game since 2009/10. He’ll turn 30 next March, and unless he, too, wants to make a sacrifice and perhaps even take the minimum to stay with the Spurs, an end to his tenure in San Antonio seems a decent bet.

Perhaps a more difficult choice revolves around Cory Joseph. Other teams appear to be circling the waters for the point guard who capably handled the primary backup duties early this season while Mills recovered from shoulder surgery. The Spurs have the power to match competing bids for Joseph, but only if they tender a qualifying offer of more than $3MM. That would be a burdensome price to pay for a third-stringer if he were to simply accept that qualifying offer. Making Joseph a restricted free agent and retaining his rights would make more sense if the team trades Mills, though Mills’ salary for next season isn’t much more than the value of Joseph’s qualifying offer. So, there’s little sense in trading Mills to clear cap room if the Spurs intend to make Joseph a restricted free agent.

A max deal is waiting for Leonard, but Duncan and Ginobili hold the keys to the San Antonio summer, a status they’ve earned in spades. Retire, and the Spurs will have the capacity to sign a top free agent target without trading anyone. Come back, and other key Spurs will have to go if a major name is to join the team. San Antonio’s tradition of winning has made the club attractive to some of the best free agents in this year’s class. Still, given the Jefferson fiasco, it’s worth wondering if the Spurs would prefer instead to trade for the next Leonard, a young talent they could mold to their system from the start, rather than risk disrupting their culture by adding a star who would demand a prominent place in the team’s hierarchy. Finding gems like Leonard is by no means easy, and few teams would have even a moment’s hesitation if someone like Aldridge or Gasol came calling. But the Spurs wouldn’t be who they are if they hadn’t outsmarted the competition and made unconventional choices. Another surprise for the rest of the league may soon be on its way from Alamo country.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players technically remain on the books.
2 — The Spurs drafted Jean-Charles 28th overall in 2013 but have yet to sign him. San Antonio can keep his draft rights but remove his cap hold from its books if he and the team produce a written agreement that he won’t sign during the 2015/16 season.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014/15 D-League Usage Report: Heat

May 6th, 2015 at 9:15pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The relationship between the NBA and the D-League continues to grow, and 17 NBA franchises currently have one-to-one D-League affiliates amongst the 18 D-League teams. The remaining 13 NBA teams shared the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this season. We at Hoops Rumors will be recapping each team’s use of the D-League this season, looking at assignments and recalls as well as the players signed out of the D-League. We’ll continue onward with a look back at how the Heat utilized the D-League during the 2014/15 campaign…

D-League Team: Sioux Falls Skyforce

Affiliation Type: One-to-one

D-League Team Record: 29-21

Number of NBA Players Assigned To D-League: 4

Total D-League Assignments: 5

Player Stats While On Assignment

  • Andre Dawkins: 1 assignment, 7 games, 16.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG. .382/.325/.818.
  • Zoran Dragic: 1 assignment, 4 games, 16.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.3 APG. .382/.391/.750.
  • Shabazz Napier: 2 assignments, 4 games, 19.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.5 APG. .419/.450/.810.
  • Hassan Whiteside: 1 assignment, 1 game, 21.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 4.0 BPG. .909/.000/.500.

D-League Signings

Assignment/Recall Log

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Draft History: Dennis Lindsey

May 6th, 2015 at 5:30pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The 2015 NBA draft is less than two months away, and for teams that aren’t still participating in the NBA playoffs, the focus is on using that event to build toward a better future. The exact draft order won’t be known until the May 19th lottery, when the simple bounce of a ping-pong ball can alter the fate of a franchise. Of course, having one of the top selections in any draft doesn’t guarantee that a team will snag a future All-Star. Team executives and scouts still have the difficult task of making the correct call with their picks.

With this in mind we at Hoops Rumors will be taking a look back at the draft history of the primary basketball executive for each NBA team. Their names, reputations, and possibly employment will be on the line as a result of the decisions to come on June 25th, and we’ll be examining what they’ve done in previous years in charge of a club’s front office. Note that many of them have played other sorts of roles within a team’s executive structure, but this won’t take that into account. We’ll continue onward with a look back at the calls made by Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey…

Jazz (August 2012-Present)

2013 Draft

  • No. 9 Overall — Trey Burke *: 146 games, 12.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 5.0 APG. .374/.324/.818.
  • No. 27 Overall — Rudy Gobert **: 127 games, 6.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG..587/.000/.598.

Notable players passed over: Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15).

*Traded picks No. 14 (Shabazz Muhammad) and No. 21 (Gorgui Dieng) to the Timberwolves for the rights to Burke.

**Traded No. 46 overall pick (Erick Green) and cash to Jazz for rights to Gobert.

2014 Draft

  • No. 5 Overall — Dante Exum: 82 games, 4.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 2.4 APG. .349/.314/.625.
  • No. 23 Overall — Rodney Hood: 50 games, 8.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.7 APG. .414/.365/.763.

Notable players passed over: Elfrid Payton (No. 10), K.J. McDaniels (No. 32) and Jordan Clarkson (No. 46).

*Traded No. 35 overall pick (Jarnell Stokes) to Grizzlies for a 2016 second-rounder.

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Minimum Salary Exception

May 6th, 2015 at 10:08am CST by Chuck Myron

The minimum salary exception is something of a last resort for capped-out teams seeking to add players, as well as for players seeking NBA contracts, but it’s the most commonly used cap exception. It allows an over-the-cap team to sign a player to a one- or two-year minimum-salary deal, as the name suggests. Teams can use the exception multiple times, allowing clubs that have spent all of their other exceptions an avenue to add to their rosters. It also allows for the acquisition of minimum-salary players via trade, and players signed via the minimum salary exception don’t count as incoming salary for salary-matching purposes.

Players are entitled to varying minimum salaries based on how long they’ve been in the NBA. In 2014/15, a player with no prior NBA experience was eligible for a $507,336 minimum salary, while a player with 10 or more years of experience was eligible for $1,448,490. Over the course of the current collective bargaining agreement, the minimum salary will increase each season, as Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ outlines. For 2015/16, the breakdown is as follows:

Years of experience — minimum salary
0 — $525,093
1 — $845,059
2 — $947,276
3 — $981,348
4 — $1,015,421
5 — $1,100,602
6 — $1,185,784
7 — $1,270,964
8 — $1,356,146
9 — $1,362,897
10 or more — $1,499,187

The numbers demonstrate the wide disparity between the minimum salary for rookies and for long-tenured players. A minimum-salary veteran of 10 or more seasons will earn almost three times as much as a rookie making the minimum next season. The NBA doesn’t want clubs to shy away from signing qualified veterans, so the league reimburses teams for a portion of a minimum-salary player’s cost if he has two or more years of experience, as long as the contract is a one-year deal. For instance, when the Wizards re-signed 12-year veteran Drew Gooden to a one-year deal for 2014/15 using the minimum salary exception, the contract called for a salary of $1,499,187, but the team’s cap hit was just $947,276. The league reimburses the Wizards for the remaining $551,911.

Most salary cap exceptions can only be used once each season. When a team uses its full mid-level exception to sign one or more players, the club can no longer use that exception until the following season. Unlike the mid-level and other cap exceptions, the minimum salary exception can be used any number of times in a single season. The Nets, for example, used the minimum salary exception to sign five players who ended the 2014/15 season on the team’s roster.

The vast majority of 10-day contracts are for the minimum salary, and often the minimum salary exception is the only way for clubs to accommodate any 10-day deals. Teams used the minimum salary exception to sign 48 players to 10-day contracts during the 2014/15 season.

Many exceptions begin to prorate on January 10th, but the minimum salary exception prorates from the first day of the regular season. Teams often take advantage of this to sign players for cheap at the end of the season primarily so they can use them to help salaries match in a trade over the summer, since minimum-salary players do count as outgoing salary for matching purposes.

For example, the Kings signed David Stockton on the fourth day from the end of the 2014/15 regular season. The Kings used the minimum salary exception to sign Stockton to a two-year contract that covered the final four days of the 2014/15 season and all of 2015/16. The 2015/16 portion is non-guaranteed, so the only guaranteed money in the deal was Stockton’s prorated minimum salary, equal to 4/170ths of $507,336. Stockton faces an uphill battle to make the Kings opening-night roster in 2015/16, but if the Kings make a trade over the summer, they can include Stockton’s contract as part of the swap to make the salaries match, allowing the team that acquires Stockton to do the same in another trade or simply waive his non-guaranteed contract at no cost before the 2015/16 season begins. The Kings didn’t necessarily sign Stockton with the idea of trading him, but the minimum salary exception gives the team plenty of flexibility to do so.

Earlier versions of this post appeared on May 7th, 2012, April 28th, 2013 and June 10th, 2014.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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2014/15 D-League Usage Report: Grizzlies

May 5th, 2015 at 9:22pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The relationship between the NBA and the D-League continues to grow, and 17 NBA franchises currently have one-to-one D-League affiliates amongst the 18 D-League teams. The remaining 13 NBA teams shared the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this season. We at Hoops Rumors will be recapping each team’s use of the D-League this season, looking at assignments and recalls as well as the players signed out of the D-League. We’ll continue onward with a look back at how the Grizzlies utilized the D-League during the 2014/15 campaign…

D-League Team: Iowa Energy

Affiliation Type: One-to-one

D-League Team Record: 26-24

Number of NBA Players Assigned To D-League: 3

Total D-League Assignments: 14

Player Stats While On Assignment

  • Jordan Adams: 5 assignments, 11 games, 18.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.8 APG. .462/.383/.795.
  • Russ Smith: 3 assignments, 18 games, 19.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.6 APG. .479/.418/.719.
  • Jarnell Stokes: 6 assignments, 23 games, 15.1 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.1 APG. .617/.000/.698.

D-League Signings

Assignment/Recall Log

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Draft History: Rich Cho

May 5th, 2015 at 5:45pm CST by Eddie Scarito

The 2015 NBA draft is less than two months away, and for teams that aren’t still participating in the NBA playoffs, the focus is on using that event to build toward a better future. The exact draft order won’t be known until the May 19th lottery, when the simple bounce of a ping-pong ball can alter the fate of a franchise. Of course, having one of the top selections in any draft doesn’t guarantee that a team will snag a future All-Star. Team executives and scouts still have the difficult task of making the correct call with their picks.

With this in mind we at Hoops Rumors will be taking a look back at the draft history of the primary basketball executive for each NBA team. Their names, reputations, and possibly employment will be on the line as a result of the decisions to come on June 25th, and we’ll be examining what they’ve done in previous years in charge of a club’s front office. Note that many of them have played other sorts of roles within a team’s executive structure, but this won’t take that into account. We’ll begin with a look back at the calls made by Hornets GM Rich Cho…

Trail Blazers (July 2010-May 2011)

  • No draft picks

Hornets (June 2011-Present)

2011 Draft

  • No. 7 Overall — Bismack Biyombo *: 284 games, 4.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG. .497/.000/.530.
  • No. 9 Overall — Kemba Walker: 283 games, 16.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 5.4 APG. .395/.318/.814.
  • No. 39 Overall — Jeremy Tyler **: 104 games, 3.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.2 APG. .450/.000/.557.

Notable players passed over: Klay Thompson (No. 11), Kawhi Leonard (No. 15). Nikola Vucevic (No. 16), Kenneth Faried (No. 22), Reggie Jackson (No. 24), Jimmy Butler (No. 30), Chandler Parsons (No. 38), and Isaiah Thomas (No. 60).

* The rights to Tobias Harris (No. 19) were traded on draft night as part of a three team deal between the Hornets, Bucks and the Kings. Charlotte received the rights to No. 7 overall pick Bismack Biyombo and Corey Maggette in return.

** Tyler was traded to the Warriors for cash.

2012 Draft

  • No. 2 Overall — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 195 games, 9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.3 APG. .464/.167/.689.
  • No. 31 Overall — Jeff Taylor: 132 games, 6.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.8 APG. .409/.319/.665.

Notable players passed over: Bradley Beal (No. 3), Damian Lillard (No. 6), Andre Drummond (No. 9), and Draymond Green (No. 35).

2013 Draft

  • No. 4 Overall — Cody Zeller: 144 games, 6.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 APG. .443/.500/.750.

Notable players passed over: Nerlens Noel (No. 6), Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15), and Rudy Gobert (No. 27).

2014 Draft

  • No. 9 Overall — Noah Vonleh: 25 games, 3.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.4 BPG. .395/.385/.692.
  • No. 26 Overall — P.J. Hairston *: 45 games, 5.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.5 APG. .323/.301/.861.

Notable players passed over: Elfrid Payton (No. 10), K.J. McDaniels (No. 32), and Jordan Clarkson (No. 46).

*Traded the No. 24 overall pick (Shabazz Napier) to the Heat for the No. 26 (Hairston) and No. 55 (Semaj Christon) picks. The rights to Christon were then dealt to the Thunder.

Note: Until last year, it wasn’t entirely clear how Charlotte delineated the structure of power and responsibility between Cho and former president of basketball operations Rod Higgins. 

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Biannual Exception

May 5th, 2015 at 3:36pm CST by Chuck Myron

The most common method over-the-cap teams use to sign free agents from other teams is the mid-level exception, but it’s not the only tool those clubs can use to squeeze an extra player onto the payroll. The biannual exception is a way to sign a player who commands more than the minimum salary and less than the mid-level.

As its name suggests, the biannual exception can only be used every other year. Even if a team uses only a portion of the exception, it becomes unavailable the following year.

The biannual exception is available only to limited number of clubs, even among those that didn’t use the biannual the season before. Teams with player salaries, cap holds and cap exceptions that add up to less than the salary cap lose their biannual exception, as well as their full mid-level exception and any trade exceptions. Additionally, teams lose access to the biannual exception when they go more than $4MM over the tax threshold, exceeding what’s known as the tax apron. So, only teams over the cap but under the tax apron can use the biannual exception.

If a team uses all or part of the biannual exception, it triggers a hard cap for that season. Clubs that sign a player using the biannual can’t go over the tax apron at any time during the season in which the contract is signed.

The biannual exception provides for a starting salary of $2.139MM in 2014/15. That’s approximately 3% greater than the starting salary in a biannual deal this past season, and the starting salary of the biannual exception will continue to rise by about 3% each year under the collective bargaining agreement. A biannual contract can be for either one or two seasons, with a raise of 4.5% for the second season. Teams also have the option of splitting the exception among multiple players, though that happens much less frequently than it does with the mid-level exception, since a split biannual deal wouldn’t entail much more than the minimum salary. The biannual exception starts to pro-rate on January 10th.

Five teams used the biannual exception in 2014/15, the same number of teams that spent it in 2013/14. The Spurs had the biannual available for use last summer when they gave Aron Baynes a one-year contract equivalent to the value of the starting salary for a biannual deal, but San Antonio used part of its mid-level instead, preserving the chance to use the biannual again this year. Here’s a list of each team that used the biannual for 2014/15 and the players to whom they committed it:

Those five teams are ineligible to sign a player via the biannual in 2015/16. That’s true for Houston even though Smith only signed a one-year contract, for Portland even if Blake opts out, for the Clippers and Kings even though Farmar and Sessions are no longer with those respective teams, and Memphis even if it waives Udrih’s partially guaranteed deal.

Earlier versions of this post appeared on April 23rd, 2012, May 1st, 2013 and May 27th, 2014.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 5th, 2015 at 2:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (23rd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $23,073,077
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $5,808,345
  • Options: $9,920,465
  • Cap Holds: $48,548,397
  • Total: $87,350,284

Portland’s offseason hinges on one name: LaMarcus Aldridge. It’ll be up to him to decide whether he continues to wear a Trail Blazers uniform or not, and there will surely be a maximum-salary offer from the Blazers waiting there for the Arn Tellem client, with his choice of contract length and option clauses. Aldridge appears, by many accounts, to be reconsidering the pledge he made last summer to re-sign with the team in the offseason ahead, one that he reiterated this past fall as the season began.

Jan 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) controls the ball against the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not the first time that the 29-year-old, who turns 30 in July, has wavered on a decision. It seemed as recently as two years ago that his exit from Portland was inevitable as he appeared eager to leave a rebuilding situation behind, but Portland’s quick turnaround in 2013/14 had him talking extension midway through the season. Aldridge put an end to extension talk when he said last summer that he would re-sign when his contract was up in 2015, though that was merely a prudent financial move on his part, as collective bargaining rules greatly disincentivize veteran extensions.

It’s unclear what’s triggered Aldridge’s renewed interest in leaving the Blazers. Portland stumbled down the stretch and fell quietly in the first round of the playoffs, but injuries played an outsized role in that, and Aldridge’s subpar 33.0% shooting in the Grizzlies series contributed to the team’s demise, too. Of course, Aldridge was battling an injury of his own, a torn ligament in his left thumb that was supposed to knock him out for six to eight weeks this season. Instead, he put off surgery and played through it, a decision that seemed only to further cement his status as a Blazers legend before doubts about his future with the team crept in.

Regardless, the Blazers would clearly prefer to keep Aldridge if they can, but if that proves impossible, they won’t be left without a way to contend next season, as was the case when LeBron James and Dwight Howard left their respective teams in recent years. The departure of Aldridge would leave Portland with a chance to open some $40MM in room against a projected $67.1MM cap, about enough to sign two 30% max free agents. More importantly, Damian Lillard‘s presence looms as reason for max-level players to entertain the idea of playing in Portland, as does GM Neil Olshey‘s track record of building winners with the Clippers and Blazers. Portland, in a vacuum, wouldn’t necessarily be an attractive destination to marquee free agents, but with a budding superstar and a canny executive at the helm, the Blazers can put forth a convincing case to stars that they can win.

Marc Stein of ESPN.com raised an intriguing possibility last week when he suggested that the Cavs could enter the picture for Aldridge as a sign-and-trade destination if Kevin Love were to pull a reversal of his own and change his plan to opt in. Love is a California native and went to UCLA, but he first burst onto the national basketball scene while attending high school in suburban Portland. The Blazers would offer him the chance to return to a familiar place and a more expansive role next to Lillard than he’s had with both James and Kyrie Irving in Cleveland. A sign-and-trade would be tricky, since teams over the tax apron can’t take on players via sign-and-trade and Cleveland is in line to zoom well into tax territory, but on the off chance Love does opt out, the Blazers could just sign him outright.

Greg Monroe, to whom the Blazers were linked last summer, looms as a much more obtainable possibility, and so would Roy Hibbert, if he opts out, as Hibbert was reportedly ready to sign an offer sheet with the Blazers in 2012 before the Pacers made it clear they’d match. Of course, Hibbert hasn’t performed like a star lately and probably wouldn’t merit the max, and there are plenty of soon-to-be free agent big men whom Portland might find more valuable, like DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez and Tristan Thompson. None aside from Love and Marc Gasol are Aldridge’s equal among interior players in this year’s free agent class, but Gasol seems committed to Memphis.

Of course, Aldridge isn’t the only significant soon-to-be free agent in Portland. The value of Wesley Matthews has never been more apparent than over the last two months since the theretofore remarkably durable shooting guard tore his left Achilles tendon. The fortunes of just about every Blazers free agent seem intrinsically linked to Aldridge, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Portland pushes hard to bring back Matthews regardless of what happens with the power forward. It’s uncertain if the Knicks have abandoned their reported interest in the wake of the injury, which threatens to keep him from starting next season on time, and surely other teams will be wary of his recovery. Matthews turns 29 in October, but the injury is far from a death knell for his long-term productivity. If the Blazers are willing to stomach a market value deal given the possibility of a lengthy recovery and a slow adjustment to playing again, they can probably bring back one of their anchors, as he’s expressed a preference to remain in Portland.

The Blazers acquired Arron Afflalo at the deadline to serve as a sixth man behind Matthews, but the former Nuggets shooting guard wound up starting before missing time with an injury of his own to his shoulder. That injury cost Afflalo time in the postseason and was conceivably at the root of his woeful performance, but he nonetheless reportedly plans to opt out. He stands as an in-house alternative to Matthews, but the emergence of C.J. McCollum, who’s on a rookie deal much cheaper than what Afflalo will surely command, casts doubt on Portland’s need to hang on to the Sam Goldfeder client. Still, if all of the team’s other key free agents come back at salaries commensurate to what they’re making now, it would be difficult for the Blazers to afford a replacement who can produce the way Afflalo does.

Robin Lopez appeared to be the missing piece last season, when the Blazers shot from 33-49 to 54-28 and a first-round playoff series victory. The 27-year-old’s production slipped this season, though part of that had to do with a dip in playing time as the Blazers sought to make use of an upgraded bench. His game might not be quite as complementary to a big man who isn’t Aldridge, so if Aldridge leaves this summer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blazers look elsewhere for a starting center. Lopez would be a natural draw for brother Brook Lopez, but Brook appears likely to opt out and re-sign with the Nets, and the twins probably wouldn’t be as effective an on-court pairing as they were at Stanford.

Complicating the frontcourt for the Blazers is Meyers Leonard‘s candidacy for a rookie scale extension this summer. The former 11th overall pick rebuilt his game and added a three-point shot after falling out of the rotation last season, and he was strong on the boards in the playoffs, averaging 11.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He switched agents, hiring the Creative Artists Agency and Aaron Mintz, a hint that he intends to push for a deal this summer.

Of course, Leonard isn’t the most prominent Blazer up for a rookie scale extension. That distinction belongs to Lillard, who’s already made it clear that he has no plans to settle for less than a full five-year max deal. Portland probably won’t hesitate to give it to him and jump at the chance to secure the two-time All-Star for the long term. Regardless of whether the extension would prompt Aldridge to chafe against the notion that he’s not the team’s top priority, a feeling he sensed earlier in his career, the Blazers can’t afford to dally with Lillard. Quickly securing the elite point guard in the first few days of July would allow marquee free agents to bank on the chance that they’d have a star running mate for years to come if they were to sign with Portland. Aldridge might not want to be a team’s No. 2 priority, but surely other talented free agents would.

There’s little doubt that Aldridge holds all the cards this summer in Portland, but unlike some other teams, the Blazers don’t have all their chips in front of a single superstar. The preferable outcome involves the power forward returning, but the Blazers have the wherewithal to quickly jump back into contention this coming season or in 2015/16 if he bolts.

Cap Footnotes

1 — Kaman’s salary is partially guaranteed for $1,000,000.
2 — The cap hold for Afflalo if he opts out would be $11,625,000
3 — The cap hold for Blake if he opts out would be $2,492,400
4 — The cap hold for Aldridge will be the lesser of $24,384,000 and the NBA’s maximum salary for a veteran of nine seasons. It will likely be the latter, so an estimate is used above.
5 — This presumes the estimated average salary for 2015/16 won’t be equal to or greater than Lopez’s $6,124,729 salary from this season. If it is, Lopez’s cap hold would instead be $11,636,985.
6 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why Watson technically remains on the books.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Jarrid Famous Shifts Focus Toward NBA

May 4th, 2015 at 11:45pm CST by Zachary Links

Former Pacers and Grizzlies camp invitee Jarrid Famous has traveled the globe in his quest to play professional basketball at the highest level. After going everywhere from Lebanon to the Dominican Republic, the four-year pro has a passport that would make Carmen Sandiego jealous.

“I’m a huge anime fan so I loved playing in Japan and getting to know their culture there,” the 6’11” center said. “My favorite place though was probably the Philippines. They love their basketball there and you get to play in front of 20,000 screaming fans every night. Plus they have TGI Fridays, Outback Steakhouse, and Olive Garden there, so those things made me feel pretty much at home.” Jarrid Famous (vertical)

This year, after returning from China, Famous had an opportunity to play in another exotic location at a healthy rate of $30K per month, but no amount of money or bloomin’ onions could have swayed him. He shunned that opportunity and remained in the States to play in the D-League so that he could audition himself for NBA teams and get ready for training camp this coming fall, wherever that may be. Famous values his experiences around the globe, but he felt that he wasn’t getting the kind of in-game experience he needed playing internationally.

“I feel I belong in the NBA. I could have done the international thing all over again this year but I chose instead to stay here and train and do the things I need to improve in advance of training camp. Going overseas, I felt like I didn’t have the right people there pushing me. In years past, I would just go overseas and then jump right into camp or summer league. Now, I’m here, I’m preparing for camp at home and I already know that I’m going to be very well prepared for it all,” the Hazan Sports Management client explained.

So far, Famous’ plan of staying in the U.S. seems to be paying off quite well.  After initially signing with a Chinese team, Famous started the 2014/15 season with the Iowa Energy, who later facilitated his request for a trade to the Texas Legends, a team that had a greater utility for his rebounding. All in all, Famous averaged 16.0 points and an eye-popping 14.9 rebounds per contest. On offense, he filled out the stat sheet while remaining an efficient scorer, knocking down 56.5% of his shots from the floor. For his quality effort in Iowa and Texas, Famous earned a runner-up nod for the title of Most Improved Player in the D-League from Ridiculous Upside.

We’re still weeks away from the meat of the offseason, but agent Daniel Hazan says that Famous already has an offer to play in minicamp. Famous’ last training camp experience is one that he’d probably like to forget. The Grizzlies were gung-ho about him in 2012, a year in which he played in the summer league for both the Pacers and the Bucks, but things were put on hold when Famous separated his left shoulder while dunking.  Three years later, Famous is 100% healthy and he says he’s more ready than ever for the stiff competition he’d face in an NBA team’s camp.

Now, the well-traveled 26-year-old is making his home base at his one-time school, Westchester Community College in New York. With the help of a trainer, Famous says he’s in the best shape of his life. He also says he’s rock-solid mentally and readily credits his years of world travel for his advanced maturity.

“It’s a great experience,” Famous said of playing internationally. “It forced me to get out of my comfort zone and grow as a person. Going everywhere and seeing how other people live, it helped me appreciate the things that I have. Going to different places and how they do things helped me to grow as a person, and I took bits and pieces from every place that I went. It helped me grow.”

Famous contends that he’s a more well-rounded person, both on the court and off, thanks to his globetrotting. Years ago in college, at South Florida, Famous had a sometimes singular focus on scoring in bunches as he worked toward his NBA dream.  Now, he understands what he does best on the floor and what he needs to do to help his team win.  Often, that means putting up points, but it also means doing the little things, hustling, and playing tough D. Famous happily does it all and hopes to do it on the NBA stage next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Prospect Profile: Sam Dekker

May 4th, 2015 at 9:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Sam Dekker emerged as one of the stars of this spring’s NCAA Tournament but NBA general managers and scouts knew all about him before Wisconsin’s run to the title game. The 6’9” Dekker was considered a first-round prospect heading into his junior season with the Badgers and he moved up the draft board with his tournament performances. Dekker dropped as low as No. 25 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Insider Big Board but now sits on the fringes of the lottery at No. 14 overall and No. 5 among small forwards. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress has Dekker, who declared for the draft after three seasons with the Badgers, rated one spot higher at No. 13 in his first-round mock draft. Dekker also sits at No. 13 on Hoops Rumors’ latest 2015 NBA Draft Prospect Power Rankings.

Apr 6, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Sam Dekker (15) dribbles in the low post defended by Duke Blue Devils forward Justise Winslow (12) during the second half in the 2015 NCAA Men's Division I Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Dekker does not have one particular talent that makes him stand out from the pack but he has plenty of attributes that translate to the next level. Offensively, he’s a versatile player who can be used in a variety of ways. He’s an efficient scorer, particularly inside the 3-point arc, converting 52.5% of his field-goal attempts in his junior year.

Playing in Wisconsin’s patient system based on ball movement, Dekker was adept at moving without the ball and finding open areas for catch-and-shoot situations or making smooth cuts to the basket. He also possesses the footwork, moves and strength needed to convert on postups against smaller players. He’s athletic and quick enough to finish in transition, though he’s not a premier ball-handler. He’s also not a prolific rebounder for someone of his size but has a knack for slipping into the paint for second-chance opportunities, as evidenced by his team-high 29 putbacks in his final season.

He has shown he can slash to the basket on straight-line drives and score at the rim, though that ability will be tested when he’s faced with taller, quicker defenders than he saw in college. He’ll also have to be craftier at the rim when shot blockers come over to help on those drives.

Combining all of those strengths, Dekker delivered an unusually high 63.9% shooting percentage on his two-point attempts this season. The biggest issue for Dekker is his spotty shooting from long range, which he’ll need to improve to become a starter-quality NBA player.

Dekker’s 3-point shooting in his final two seasons with the Badgers was troubling. He knocked down just 32.6% of his long-range shots as a sophomore and improved only slightly as a junior (33.1). He shot 39.3% on threes during this year’s tournament but his streakiness was evident. He made 5-of-6 against Arizona in the regional semifinals and buried a couple more in clutch situations against Kentucky in the Final Four, then laid an 0-for-6 egg against Duke in the championship game.

With NBA teams basing their offensive strategies on pick-and-rolls and penetrating guards, Dekker must show he can make those shots when kickout passes come his way. Dekker’s shooting inconsistency might be a correctable flaw. He has some mechanical issues, according to Givony, which at times cause him to release his shot with poor balance and excessive arc. His free throw shooting is also subpar for a wing player. He converted 69.5% from the line during his college career with no noticeable improvement from year to year.

There are no questions about his basketball IQ or toughness. Dekker makes smart decisions with the ball and doesn’t get sloppy with his dribble. Dekker turned the ball over on just 7.3% of his possessions as a junior, making him the least turnover-prone player among this year’s draft prospects. That’s an underrated skill which is highly valued among NBA coaches, since games are often decided by a few crucial possessions.

Playing in the open floor more often could accentuate Dekker’s ability. He was a standout in last summer’s LeBron James camp, which led to the first-round projection for him prior to last season. Breaking free from Wisconsin’s system could turn Dekker into an even more dangerous offensive threat.

“I saw him at LeBron and I thought he was the best kid out there,” an unnamed scout told Ford. “That kid you saw in the tournament? That’s the kid we saw at LeBron and I think it’s who he is. I like him better than Kelly Oubre Jr. or Stanley Johnson. I’d take him in the lottery for sure. Maybe the top 10.”

Dekker is also a willing defender who has the build (230 pounds) and lateral quickness to match up with players at his position. Moreover, he has the height and strength to defend most stretch fours and enough foot speed to handle some shooting guards. With many NBA teams using smaller lineups, Dekker’s ability to guard three positions increases his value. He’ll be able to make switches on pick-and-rolls and acquit himself reasonably well on postups.

That emphasis on going small could mean that Dekker will see action at both forward spots, provided he doesn’t have to defend some of the more rugged and taller power forwards in the league.

Intangibles make Dekker all the more attractive. He plays with confidence and fire which turns into swagger when he’s making his outside shots. He comes from a winning, team-oriented program where he learned to make sacrifices and get the best out of his ability in Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan’s system. He loves the spotlight and isn’t afraid to take the big shot, make the extra pass or defend the opponent’s best player in crunch-time situations. With three years at a top-level program under his belt, he’s also more ready to contribute right away than most of the players in this year’s draft.

It would be an unreasonable to expect Dekker to develop into an All-Star caliber player unless he turns himself into a more prolific long-range shooter. He’s still worthy of being taken in the middle of the first round. He’s got enough talent to be a starter or, at the very least, a reliable rotation player off the bench.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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