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All of 2020’s top 50 free agents are off the board. LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, and several other notable players have signed contract extensions. Every 2020 draftee who is expected to sign a contract for the coming season has done so.

However, we’ll still waiting for news on the biggest contract question of the NBA offseason: Will Giannis Antetokounmpo sign a super-max extension with the Bucks?

Antetokounmpo’s decision figures to have a seismic impact on the rest of the league. Besides potentially making or breaking the Bucks’ future, it’ll also be a crucial turning point for all the teams who are maintaining cap flexibility in the hopes of making a run at the reigning MVP in 2021 free agency, including the Mavericks, Raptors, and Heat.

Even the teams that have no shot at landing Antetokounmpo themselves will be keeping a close on his situation, since the NBA’s balance of power could shift depending on where the star forward decides to spend the next few years of his career.

The Bucks and Antetokounmpo have until December 21 to finalize a super-max extension, which would add five years onto his current deal and pay him a projected $228.2MM (assuming the cap increases by 3% for 2021/22). If the two sides don’t reach an agreement by that point, Antetokounmpo will be on track to reach free agency in 2021, putting significant pressure on the Bucks to prove during the coming season that they’re a legitimate championship contender.

Reports leading up to the offseason indicated that the Bucks were projecting confidence about their chances of locking up Giannis before the regular season began, but Zach Lowe of ESPN said on The Jump on Tuesday (video link) that the team has “gone kind of silent” since then.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Bucks aren’t still confident, but it’s somewhat concerning when combined with reports that Antetokounmpo had been looking forward to teaming up with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who was seemingly on track to join the Bucks in a sign-and-trade deal last month before it fell apart.

Still, the Bucks have posted the NBA’s best record for two consecutive seasons and added Jrue Holiday to the mix for 2020/21. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be one of the best teams in the NBA again this season, and Holiday increases their postseason upside.

Antetokounmpo’s teammates also don’t seem too concerned about his contract situation, having jokingly gifted him with pens for his 26th birthday on Sunday, as Eric Woodyard of ESPN details.

It’s worth noting that the Bucks and Antetokounmpo could still complete the same five-year super-max extension during the 2021 offseason — they don’t necessarily have to get it done now.

But if he decides to wait, Giannis would be signaling that he wants to keep his options open, and speculation about his future would only increase over the course of the year, since super-max deals can’t be signed during the season. He won’t be able to get any more money by waiting, so if he knows he wants to stay in Milwaukee long-term, it makes sense for him to sign that new deal sooner rather than later.

What do you think? Will Antetokounmpo sign a super-max extension with the Bucks sometime in the next 12 days? Or will he forgo a new deal this month, choosing to keep his options open as his 2021 free agency approaches?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Although he won’t be among this year’s pool of NBA free agents, Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the player whose next move is monitored closest this offseason.

Entering the final year of his contract with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will be eligible for a five-year, super-max extension that would make him one of the NBA’s highest-paid players for years to come. However, after Milwaukee’s disappointing playoff showings during the last two seasons, there’s no guarantee that Giannis will sign that extension as soon as he’s eligible to do so.

Despite those postseason exits, Antetokunmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term. And while we’ve heard those kind of comments before from star players who eventually leave their teams, Giannis’ stance seems genuine.

Milwaukee is the only home he has known since arriving in America, the Bucks are a talented team that has led the NBA in wins over the last two years, and Antetokounmpo doesn’t sound like he’s simply reading from a generic script when he talks about wanting to break through and win a title with the Bucks.

Still, until Antetokounmpo officially puts pen to paper on a new contract, anything can happen. Specifically, there are four scenarios that could play out for Giannis and the Bucks over the next year.

1. Antetokounmpo signs a five-year, super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason. It would go into effect in 2021/22 and would start at 35% of the cap for that year.
2. Antetokounmpo forgoes an extension this offseason, but remains with the Bucks for another year, then signs a new deal with the team during the 2021 offseason. He could still sign the five-year super-max in ’21. Or he could opt for a shorter-term deal, especially if the league’s updated salary cap projections suggest that approach might be more financially advantageous in the long run.
3. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, then joins a new team when he reaches free agency in 2021 — either by signing outright or via sign-and-trade. His max contract would be for four years, starting at 30% of the cap.
4. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason and is traded before the 2021 deadline.

The fourth option has always seemed like the least probable outcome to me. As Tim Bontemps of ESPN reiterated this week, the Bucks are opposed to the idea of trading Antetokounmpo before his contract expires, preferring to make another run at a title with him in 2021. I imagine the team would only seriously consider a trade if Antetokounmpo asks for one, and he has stated he has no plans to do so.

The other three options are all more realistic possibilities, though I don’t have a feel yet for which outcome is likeliest. The Bucks will be able to put their super-max offer on the table for Antetokounmpo once the 2020/21 league year begins, which figures to happen in late November or early December. We should get a better idea by that point whether he’ll accept that offer this offseason.

If he doesn’t, the Bucks don’t need to panic. They’ll be able to put that same super-max offer back in play during the 2021 offseason and it’s worth more years and more money than Antetokoumpo can get anywhere else. Plus, if the Bucks can make the roster upgrades necessary to make a run to the NBA Finals in ’21, that would go a long way toward selling Giannis on a long-term future in Milwaukee.

We want to know what you think. Which outcome is the most likely for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks? Do you envision him remaining in Milwaukee for years to come, or are his days as a Buck numbered?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.