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Central Notes: Giannis, Porter, P. Williams, Pacers

December 16th, 2020 at 8:14pm CST by Arthur Hill

Plenty of options were waiting for Giannis Antetokounmpo if he had reached free agency, but he chose to remain loyal to Milwaukee, which has been his NBA home for the past seven years, writes Eric Woodyard of ESPN. Antetokoumpo provided an early Christmas present to Bucks fans on Tuesday when he agreed to a super-max extension that runs through the 2025/26 season.

“The way that this city has supported me and my family has been amazing since day one, since the day I walked in the Cousins Center gym and Bradley Center, also. It’s been amazing. I was 18, I’m 26 right now. All I know is Milwaukee,” Antetokounmpo said. “When I came here, all I knew is that this is a city that loves basketball, it’s a city that … We have more things to do now, but when I came here we had a lot of things to do so I could just focus on basketball and it’s a place that I want to be.”

While the Bucks had a huge advantage in the money they could offer Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP had to be convinced that he could win a championship in Milwaukee. The front office was aggressive over the offseason, trading for Jrue Holiday and signing D.J. Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, and Torrey Craig.

“I think we can get better. I believe we can be better. We’ve got better,” Antetokounmpo said. “We have a great team. We have a great culture. I know that I’m working toward that goal. The front office is working toward that goal, so I’m good. I’m happy. I think everybody’s on the same page.”

There’s more from the Central Division:

  • Cavaliers swingman Kevin Porter Jr. didn’t travel with the team to New York, which means he won’t play at all during the preseason, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. The Cavs have chosen to address Porter’s legal issues internally, Fedor adds, and are being vague in their public statements. Porter didn’t practice with the team until December 10 and may not be ready for the season opener next week.
  • The Bulls gave first-round pick Patrick Williams a start in their third preseason game, notes Rob Schaefer of NBC Sports Chicago. The decision was based partly on the team’s shortage of personnel due to injuries and COVID-19 concerns, but coach Billy Donovan also wanted to see how Williams would respond to opportunity. “It’s just more to see, like, OK, what does Patrick look like with that first group,” Donovan said. “Does Otto (Porter Jr.), you know, give us a little bit of a punch off the bench from a scoring standpoint? We’re gonna have to make some sacrifices all the way around as a team in terms of how we need to play, and then also what guys’ roles may be, just because of the uniqueness of what we’re all dealing with at this point in time.”
  • The Pacers appeared to be on track to make another front office addition, possibly a second assistant general manager, but they’ve tabled those plans for now, tweets J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star.
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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

December 16th, 2020 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.

It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.

We’ll turn today to the Central…

Milwaukee Bucks

How many games will the Bucks win in 2020/21?
Over 51.5 73.74% (542 votes)
Under 51.5 26.26% (193 votes)
Total Votes: 735

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Bucks poll.

Indiana Pacers

How many games will the Pacers win in 2020/21?
Over 39.5 57.85% (350 votes)
Under 39.5 42.15% (255 votes)
Total Votes: 605

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pacers poll.

Chicago Bulls

How many games will the Bulls win in 2020/21?
Under 29.5 61.60% (409 votes)
Over 29.5 38.40% (255 votes)
Total Votes: 664

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Bulls poll.

Cleveland Cavaliers

How many games will the Cavaliers win in 2020/21?
Under 23.5 68.45% (423 votes)
Over 23.5 31.55% (195 votes)
Total Votes: 618

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Cavaliers poll.

Detroit Pistons

How many games will the Pistons win in 2020/21?
Over 22.5 53.88% (340 votes)
Under 22.5 46.12% (291 votes)
Total Votes: 631

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pistons poll.

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)
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More On Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Extension, Bucks

December 16th, 2020 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

Following the Bucks‘ second-round postseason loss to Miami, reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo made a conscious decision to play a more vocal role in upgrading the team’s roster, according to a report from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Kevin Arnovitz.

During a fall lunch with Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry, GM Jon Horst, and Giannis’ agent Alex Saratsis, Antetokounmpo named a number of players whom he thought would be good offseason targets for Milwaukee, including Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, per Windhorst and Arnovitz.

Beal wasn’t available, the Bucks never got close to a deal for Oladipo, and their efforts to sign-and-trade for Bogdanovic fell through. However, Milwaukee zeroed in on another player on Giannis’ list, Jrue Holiday, believing he’d be a natural fit in the team’s lineup.

According to ESPN’s duo, the Nuggets and Celtics were aggressive in attempting to acquire a top-10 pick in last month’s draft to flip for Holiday. The Hawks were also interested in moving the No. 6 pick in a deal for the Pelicans guard, but ultimately abandoned that plan due to uncertainty over whether he’d want to remain in Atlanta beyond 2021.

The Bucks didn’t have a top-10 pick in 2020 to offer for Holiday, but were willing to put plenty of future first-rounders on the table. According to Windhorst and Arnovitz, Milwaukee initially offered Eric Bledsoe, two first-round picks, and a pick swap (plus salary filler), then “reluctantly” added George Hill to the offer. The Pelicans countered by asking for one more first-rounder and one more pick swap.

Sources tell ESPN that the Bucks’ decision-makers knew that giving up two rotation players, three first-round picks, and two pick swaps was an overpay, especially since an extension for Holiday may cost in the neighborhood of $30MM per year.

However, the club badly wanted to upgrade its roster and to send a message to Antetokounmpo and decided to pull the trigger. If that deal ultimately helped convince Giannis to sign his super-max extension, the front office presumably feels the cost was worth it.

Here’s more on the Bucks and the Antetokounmpo extension:

  • The report from ESPN’s Windhorst and Arnovitz is worth checking out in full, as it’s packed with interesting nuggets about the process of extending Antetokounmpo. According to the ESPN duo, when the Lakers acquired Dennis Schroder from Oklahoma City, Giannis wanted reassurance that Milwaukee had made a “valiant effort” to land Schroder.
  • As a trio of writers from The Athletic reported on Tuesday, Windhorst and Arnovitz confirm that the Bucks first formally made their extension pitch to Antetokounmpo on December 5. During that meeting, team ownership and management focused on the team’s commitment to building a champion, pointing to its aggressive pursuit of Holiday and its willingness to pay future luxury tax bills, per ESPN.
  • David Aldridge of The Athletic argues that the Antetokounmpo extension is good for the NBA, since it’s hard for fans in non-glamor markets to fully invest in their teams if they believe star players always have one foot out the door.
  • Joe Vardon of The Athletic throws some cold water on the news of Antetokounmpo’s extension, writing that the new deal offers the Bucks a temporary reprieve, but doesn’t guarantee the superstar forward will be with the franchise for the next five years. Jobs will be “on the line” in Milwaukee if the team doesn’t make the NBA Finals and win a title within the next couple years, says Vardon.
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Giannis Notes: Signing Process, Masai, Butler, Small Markets

December 15th, 2020 at 5:45pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Two-time Bucks MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has inked a five-year, $228.2MM super-max contract extension to stay in Milwaukee. Shams Charania, Eric Nehm, and Sam Amick of The Athletic take an in-depth look into the process that saw the star forward opt to remain with the team that drafted him in 2013.

The Bucks made a big splash early in the offseason when they traded for defensive-oriented veteran guard Jrue Holiday. After a botched Bogdan Bogdanovic sign-and-trade deal, Antetokounmpo apparently wavered on a Milwaukee return — Giannis had strived to recruit the then-Kings guard, now with the Hawks.

The star stayed in touch with the Milwaukee front office throughout the offseason before coming to a decision, even though it took longer for him to sign on the dotted line than perhaps initially anticipated.

There’s more news surrounding ripple effects of the Giannis decision:

  • Now that Antetokounmpo will be forgoing free agency for the immediate future, Raptors team president Masai Ujiri will have to get creative when it comes to team-building, per Eric Koreen of the Athletic. Using a bevy of assets towards a trade for Rockets guard James Harden or Wizards guard Bradley Beal could make sense for Toronto. Ujiri’s contract with the Raptors will expire this offseason, and Koreen wonders if the loss of Antetokounmpo as a free agent prospect could affect Ujiri’s decision to remain with the Raptors long-term.
  • With Antetokounmpo no longer be a free agent candidate for the Heat next summer, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald breaks down the next steps Miami can take as it strives for long-term title contention, as well the reaction of Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler. Rather than expressing disappointment, the ultra-competitive wing appeared excited for the opportunity to do battle with the Bucks MVP soon. “I like it,” Butler said. “I don’t think you can go around him [for a title].”
  • The new extension for Antetokounmpo is not just a victory for the Bucks, but for the NBA and all its small market clubs, Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today contends. Giannis’ decision to stay with Milwaukee long term will free up general manager Jon Horst to build a team up around him without needing to worry about a starrier squad snatching him in 2021 free agency, Zillgitt notes.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Signs Super-Max Extension With Bucks

December 15th, 2020 at 5:30pm CST by Luke Adams

5:30pm: The Bucks officially announced their new agreement with Antetokounmpo (via Twitter).

3:35pm: Antetokounmpo’s super-max extension will feature a 15% trade kicker, reports Charania (via Twitter). Since a player’s trade bonus can’t push his salary above his maximum, that’s unlikely to matter unless the cap rises significantly during the later years of Giannis’ new deal.

12:23pm: Giannis Antetokounmpo has decided to sign a five-year, super-max contract extension with the Bucks, per Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Antetokounmpo published an Instagram post announcing the news.

“This is my home, this is my city,” he wrote. “I’m blessed to be able to be a part of the Milwaukee Bucks for the next five years. Let’s make these years count. The show goes on, let’s get it.”

The deal, which will feature a starting salary worth 35% of the salary cap, projects to be worth $228.2MM over five years, making it the largest contract in NBA history, Charania notes. The exact value will depend on how much the salary cap increases for the 2021/22 season — the $228.2MM projection is based on a presumed 3% cap bump.

In that scenario, Antetokounmpo would make $39,344,970 in year one, with annual 8% raises resulting in a fifth-year salary of $51,935,362 in 2025/26. That final year will be a player option, agent Alex Saratsis tells ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Antetokounmpo’s decision to sign the Bucks’ super-max extension offer, which has been on the table since the new league year began last month, is a massive development for the franchise. Milwaukee now has the two-time MVP locked up for the next five seasons and can focus on continuing to build a championship-caliber roster around him.

The Bucks’ efforts to bolster their roster around Antetokounmpo included trading multiple future first-round picks and pick swaps last month to acquire standout guard Jrue Holiday from the Pelicans. Milwaukee also attempted to land Bogdan Bogdanovic in a sign-and-trade, but that deal ultimately fell apart, forcing the club to look elsewhere on the free agent market. The Bucks instead signed D.J. Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, and Torrey Craig to fill out their rotation.

There was some speculation that the Bucks’ failed effort to bring Bogdanovic to Milwaukee may dampen Antetokounmpo’s enthusiasm for an extension, since he was said to be high on the idea of teaming up with the Serbian swingman. However, if that was the case, it wasn’t enough to dissuade Giannis from locking in a new deal with the Bucks before the December 21 super-max deadline.

Antetokounmpo, who turned 26 last Sunday, has led the Bucks’ to the NBA’s best regular season record in each of the last two seasons, establishing new career highs in 2019/20 with 29.5 PPG and 13.6 RPG in just 30.4 MPG (63 games).

In each of those last two years, the Bucks fell short of the NBA Finals, blowing a 2-0 lead to the Raptors in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals and then losing to the Heat in the 2020 Eastern Semifinals. However, Antetokounmpo’s long-term commitment to Milwaukee signals that he still believes in the club’s ability to win a title, since he has long maintained that an ability to compete for a championship was his number one priority in deciding where he wants to play.

With Antetokounmpo no longer on track to reach free agency in 2021, a handful of teams around the NBA will have to reevaluate their plans for next summer. The Raptors, Heat, and Mavericks were among the clubs hoping to take a run at the All-NBA forward. They could still use their projected ’21 cap room to pursue a star, but they’ll have to target someone besides Giannis.

Once he makes it official with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will become the sixth player to sign a super-max contract since the NBA introduced it in 2017, joining Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall, as Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets.

Antetokounmpo will also be the ninth player to sign a contract extension since the 2020/21 league year began and the seventh to ink a max deal, joining LeBron James, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Could Extension For Holiday Be Next For Bucks?

December 15th, 2020 at 3:07pm CST by Luke Adams
  • Now that the Bucks have secured a commitment from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Pelton of ESPN (Insider link) wonders if an extension for Jrue Holiday might be next up on the team’s to-do list. Since he was recently traded, Holiday can only get a 5% raise and one extra year (beyond his 2021/22 player option) for now, but those restrictions will lift on February 26, allowing for more money and more years.
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And-Ones: Doncic, Lin, G League, Duffy

December 14th, 2020 at 12:42pm CST by Luke Adams

A panel of eight NBA scouts and executives polled by Tim Bontemps of ESPN nearly unanimously view LeBron James as the league’s best player, but voted Luka Doncic as the frontrunner for the MVP award in 2021.

“It’s hard to see Giannis winning three in a row,” a Western Conference scout told ESPN. “And I think there’s more of an opportunity for Luka to kind of put on an MVP show and do more on an individual basis.”

Bontemps also had those scouts and execs weigh in with their thoughts on the 2020 offseason, polling them on which teams had the most success upgrading their roster in either the short or long term — or both. Half the panelists picked the Lakers as the team that had the best offseason, with the Hawks, Thunder, and Sixers also receiving votes. Meanwhile, the Pistons, Rockets, and Bucks got votes for the worst offseason.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Free agent guard Jeremy Lin practiced this weekend with the G League Ignite ahead of their scrimmages on Tuesday and Thursday, league sources tell Adam Zagoria of Forbes (Twitter link). Lin wasn’t among the veteran players previously announced as part of the Ignite, but Zagoria suggests in his full story that the veteran is expected to suit up with the squad on Tuesday.
  • Dakota Schmidt of Ridiculous Upside is keeping tabs on which teams are expected to opt in and out of the G League’s proposed Atlanta-area bubble. With the NBA’s opening night just over a week away, it seems like a formal update on the plans for the NBAGL should be right around the corner.
  • After making a clerical error that cost client Anthony Carter approximately $3MM in 2003, agent Bill Duffy vowed to repay Carter in full and has made good on that promise, making the last of his payments to Carter this year, as Sopan Deb writes in an interesting story for The New York Times.
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Trading For Harden Would Be Very Difficult

December 11th, 2020 at 9:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

James Harden has reportedly added the Bucks to the teams he’d be willing to play for but acquiring the perennial All-Star guard would be very complicated even if Milwaukee wants him, as Eric Nehm of The Athletic points out.

Milwaukee can’t move nearly half of its players on guaranteed contracts since the club added six players via trades or free agent signings. Most of those players aren’t eligible to be dealt until late February. The Bucks’ proximity to the hard cap also makes it nearly impossible to trade multiple players for Harden unless a third party is involved or Houston tosses in some minimum salary players.

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Nets Notes: Durant, G League, Dinwiddie

December 10th, 2020 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

As he prepares to make his debut for the Nets, nearly 18 months after joining with the team, Kevin Durant expects to be asked to play a few different positions, he told reporters on Wednesday. As Malika Andrew of ESPN writes, Durant will spend time playing frontcourt roles besides his old small forward spot.

“I think Coach (Steve Nash) is going to use me in a variety of ways, especially as a small-ball five and four sometimes,” Durant said. “And bringing the ball up, too, so I’ve just got to be ready for anything.”

Durant also said on Wednesday that he doesn’t have a set number of minutes in mind for the Nets’ preseason games as he makes his return from a torn Achilles. He’s just hoping to use those two exhibition contests as a measuring stick for what his body can handle, writes Andrews.

Here’s more on the Nets:

  • Durant was asked about the James Harden trade rumors again on Wednesday and deflected them, saying he’s “very excited” about Brooklyn’s current roster. “I don’t think about James Harden at all,” the Nets’ star said, according to Adam Zagoria of Forbes. “I mean, he doesn’t play on our team.” Durant previously insinuated that reports of him and Harden talking about teaming up in Brooklyn were “made up.”
  • The Nets are among the teams expected to opt in for the proposed G League bubble in Atlanta, tweets Zagoria. The Long Island Nets – Brooklyn’s affiliate – would be among the dozen-plus clubs likely to participate, Zagoria adds.
  • Spencer Dinwiddie was mentioned in some offseason trade rumors, with Shams Charania of The Athletic reporting today that the Nets guard was among the players pursued by the Bucks. However, head coach Steve Nash sounds confident that Dinwiddie will remain in Brooklyn for the 2020/21 season, per Brian Lewis of The New York Post (Twitter link). “I’m heavy towards not trading Spencer Dinwiddie and the front office feels the same way,” Nash said.
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Bucks, Heat Also Among Harden’s Preferred Trade Destinations

December 10th, 2020 at 8:35am CST by Luke Adams

James Harden now has the Bucks and Heat among his preferred trade destinations, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic. Milwaukee and Miami join Brooklyn and Philadelphia as the top landing spots on Harden’s wish list.

As we observed on Tuesday when we wrote about Harden adding the Sixers to his list of preferred destinations, the Rockets are under no obligation to send the former MVP to one of the teams on his list, since he has multiple years left on his contract and doesn’t have the ability to veto trades. However, it’s possible those clubs would be more willing to offer significant packages for Harden if they know he wants to play for them.

Neither Milwaukee nor Miami looks like an ideal trade partner for Houston, however, given the Rockets’ asking price of an All-Star caliber player plus several young players and/or draft picks. Both the Bucks and Heat have traded away multiple future first-round picks and/or pick swaps, compromising their ability to build an offer heavy on draft assets.

As for potential centerpieces, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo would presumably be off the table in any deal with Miami, while Milwaukee obviously isn’t moving Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks have other former All-Stars in Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, but neither is on a particularly team-friendly contract — Middleton is owed $147MM over four years, while Holiday can reach free agency in 2021. Tyler Herro would be an intriguing target in any deal with the Heat, but has only played one season, so the Rockets would have to be awfully high on his potential to accept a package built around him.

The Nets and 76ers are still atop Harden’s wish list, according to Charania, who says the 31-year-old has been “resigned to the belief” that he can no longer compete for a championship in Houston.

However, Charania hears that the Rockets have no interest in a Brooklyn offer that doesn’t include Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving. A Sixers offer would likely have to include Ben Simmons, but new head coach Doc Rivers has “privately made clear” that he wants an opportunity to try to maximize the potential of the Simmons/Joel Embiid duo, Charania writes.

General manager Daryl Morey and the Philadelphia front office, having added sharpshooters Seth Curry and Danny Green to complement Simmons and Embiid, appear committed to keeping their two young stars for the time being.

Harden is currently going through the NBA’s coronavirus testing process and will have to register six negative tests before he’s cleared to practice with the Rockets. According to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle, Harden only requires three negative tests to begin individual workouts, and Charania suggests the superstar guard is expected to have a workout in front of team personnel soon.

According to Charania, Harden has “maintained a dialogue” with trusted Rockets assistant coach John Lucas, even as he has been non-communicative at times with the club’s front office.

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