Hoops Rumors Originals

Fantasy Hoops: Johnson, Rondo, Ilyasova

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its eleventh week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.


Tyler Johnson’s Value

The Nets shocked the basketball community when they signed Tyler Johnson to an offer sheet worth $50MM over four years. The move was seen as an overpay, but that sometimes comes with the restricted free agency territory, as teams have to find ways to discourage the incumbent team from matching. Many thought the offer meant that Johnson, a player who only played 36 games last season, would find his way to Brooklyn, but the Heat decided to match and give the 24-year-old an increased role. So far this season, it appears the team made the right decision.

The Heat are struggling, but Johnson isn’t the reason why. He’s one of five shooting guards seeing at least 30 minutes per game to have a positive rating on both the offensive and defensive end, according ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus. He’s making 39.1% of his shots from behind the arc, though his increased role has led to a dip in his overall field goal percentage.

Johnson missed tonight’s game against the Suns with a migraine, marking only the third time this season he’s been out of the lineup. The combo guard was playing well entering the contest. He averaged 17.1 points, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game over his last seven. He also added two 3-pointers and nearly a block per contest.

Goran Dragic was sidelined in three of those games and he was hindered in parts of others due to back pain. Dragic may be on the trade block and if the team deals the point guard, Johnson’s fantasy value could see a substantial boost.

Johnson is available in over 43% of ESPN leagues and he’s worth adding for both his production now and his potential to take on an even bigger role of the offense later in the season.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

  • The Bulls benched Rajon Rondo and he will reportedly seek a trade if he doesn’t see playing time. If he’s dealt, he could actually see a nice bump in value. His usage rate with the Bulls is his lowest since his rookie season and that’s due in part to the presence of Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. A new team may give him an opportunity to regain his status as a fantasy starter. If you can afford to wait out the situation, leave Rondo on your bench rather than dropping him, though taking the latter approach is a defensible action.
  • Michael Carter-Williams is starting in place of Rondo, but he’s not necessarily a must-own commodity. MCW won’t provide much 3-point shooting and he will certainly hurt your team in the field goal percentage category. However, he will add value in several other categories, such as steals, blocks, assists and rebounds, and he’s a nice streaming option in the right match-up.
  • Ersan Ilyasova continues to be useful for the Sixers and for fantasy purposes. He scored 19 points while shooting 50% from the field in tonight’s game against the Wolves. On Friday, Philadelphia will take on Boston, a team that is allowing the most points and eighth best field goal percentage to opposing forwards over their last five games.

Community Shootaround: What Should Hawks Do?

A weekend report suggesting that the Hawks are open to listening to trade offers for Paul Millsap has generated plenty of discussion and speculation over the past couple days, but Millsap isn’t the only Atlanta player who could be available. Reports have indicated that the Hawks are open to talking about anyone on an expiring contract, which means Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha, Tiago Splitter, and Kris Humphries figure to be involved in trade rumors as well.

Of course, just because the Hawks are fielding incoming calls and are receptive to trade ideas, that doesn’t mean the team will actually make a move. Millsap has been the subject of trade speculation for years, and hasn’t gone anywhere — it’s more likely than not that he’ll remain in Atlanta through the deadline once again this season.

Still, the Hawks’ upside with the current roster isn’t exactly sky-high. The team got off to a hot start in 2016/17, running out to a 9-2 record to open the season, but a 1-10 stretch followed. Recently, the club has bounced back a little, sitting now at 18-16, good for a No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, the Hawks aren’t a viable title contender, and moving a few players before they get a chance to walk in free agency could help the team retool its roster.

The asking price in any Millsap deal will reportedly be huge, even though he’ll have a chance to opt out of his contract a few months from now. Any team willing to make a play for him will have to be confident that he’ll strongly consider re-signing in July. That’s not necessarily the case for the Hawks’ other trade candidates.

What do you think? Should the Hawks seriously consider making a trade or two to shake up their roster? Will their approach depend on how they play over the next few weeks, or should they make a move regardless? If they decide to move Millsap, what sort of package should they need to get back? Jump into the comments section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Checking In On Traded 2017 Draft Picks

Depending on how active this year’s trade deadline is, we could see a number of first- and second-round draft picks change hands next month. But even if that doesn’t happen, there will be plenty of 2017 picks on the move. Many of those traded picks come with certain protection criteria, as we detailed back in September when we took a closer look at the first-rounders and second-rounders that have already been dealt.

With the 2017 draft inching closer and the February trade deadline just several weeks away, it’s worth checking in to see how this year’s standings have affected those traded picks. If a team knows it will likely have an extra pick or two coming its way in 2017, it could impact what sort of moves that club is willing to make at this year’s deadline.

So, using our 2016/17 Reverse Standings, here’s a breakdown of how the traded draft picks for 2017 would look if the season ended today and the lottery standings held to form:

First Round:

Conveyed:

  • Celtics would swap No. 21 pick for Nets‘ No. 1 pick (swap rights).
  • Sixers would receive No. 7 pick from Lakers (top-3 protected).
  • Bulls would receive No. 15 pick from Kings (top-10 protected).
  • Nuggets would receive No. 23 pick from Grizzlies (top-5 protected).
  • Raptors would receive No. 24 pick from Clippers (top-14 protected).
  • Jazz would receive No. 30 pick from Warriors (unprotected).

Not conveyed:

  • Sixers would not have opportunity to swap No. 2 pick with Kings‘ pick (swap rights; 11-30 protected). Sacramento’s obligation to Philadelphia would be extinguished.

Second Round:

Conveyed:

  • Hawks would receive No. 31 pick from Nets (unprotected).
  • Pelicans would receive No. 32 pick from Sixers (unprotected).
  • Grizzlies would receive No. 33 pick from Heat (41-60 protected).
  • Celtics would receive No. 36 pick from Timberwolves (unprotected).
  • Rockets would receive No. 39 pick from Nuggets (unprotected).
  • Rockets would receive No. 40 pick from Trail Blazers (unprotected).
  • Sixers would receive No. 41 pick from Pistons. May be No. 42 pick, depending on coin flip.
  • Jazz would receive No. 43 pick from Knicks.
  • Knicks would receive No. 46 pick from Bulls (unprotected). May be No. 47 pick, depending on coin flip.
  • Nets would receive No. 51 pick from Celtics (31-45 protected; contingent on Celtics swapping first-rounders with Nets).
  • Nuggets would receive No. 52 pick from Thunder (31-35 protected).
  • Nuggets would receive No. 53 pick from Grizzlies (31-35 protected).
  • Celtics would receive No. 54 pick from Clippers (unprotected).
  • Knicks would receive No. 57 pick from Rockets (unprotected).
  • Celtics would receive No. 58 pick from Cavaliers (unprotected).
  • Sixers would receive No. 60 pick from Warriors.

Not conveyed:

  • Hawks would not receive No. 33 pick from Heat (31-40 protected). Miami would owe Atlanta its 2018 second-round pick (unprotected).
  • Timberwolves would not receive No. 38 pick from Pelicans (31-55 protected). New Orleans’ obligation to Minnesota would be extinguished.
  • Magic would not receive No. 45 pick from Kings (31-55 protected). Sacramento’s obligation to Orlando would be extinguished.
  • Nets would not receive No. 46 pick from Pacers (45-60 protected). Indiana would owe Brooklyn its 2018 second-round pick (45-60 protected).
  • Spurs would not receive No. 49 pick from Hawks (31-55 protected). Atlanta’s obligation to San Antonio would be extinguished.

RealGM.com’s database of traded draft picks was used in the creation of this post.

Community Shootaround: MVP Race Check-In

The NBA season is nearing its halfway mark, which means it’s worth checking in on what’s shaping up to be perhaps the most interesting MVP race the league has seen in years. Multiple young players have made the leap to superstardom this season, while others who have been stars for years have taken their games to a new level so far in 2016/17.

Two of those young players that have taken a leap this season likely won’t receive a ton of MVP votes, given their teams’ middling performances. But Anthony Davis is blowing away his career highs in PPG and RPG, with 29.2 and 11.7, respectively, while also contributing a league-leading 2.6 BPG. Giannis Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, is doing a little of everything for the Bucks, with an eye-popping stat line of 23.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.0 BPG, and a .536 FG% in 32 games. Davis and Antetokounmpo are 23 and 22 years old, respectively, so even if they don’t get serious MVP consideration this season, they’ll have plenty more chances to compete for the award in the future.

Two former MVP winners have been as good as ever this season for the two teams expected to meet again in the Finals. In the East, LeBron James had been expected to play a slightly lesser role during the regular season in order to make sure he’s fresh for the playoffs, but the veteran forward has actually seen his MPG increase to 37.1, and his numbers this year are the best they’ve been since his return to Cleveland — 25.6 PPG, 8.7 APG, 7.9 RPG, and a .511 FG%, including 38.4% on three-pointers.

In the West, Kevin Durant has been the best player on a Warriors team that already featured three All-NBA stars, including last year’s MVP. While Stephen Curry‘s production has dipped a little, Durant’s efficiency has gone through the roof — he’s shooting a career-best 53.7% from the field, and has also emerged as a solid rim protecter and rebounder for a team lacking a traditional impact center. His 8.9 RPG and 1.6 BPG are career highs.

At this point though, the MVP race may come down to two of Durant’s former teammates. James Harden, who is coming off an astonishing 53-point, 17-assist, 16-rebound showing on New Year’s Eve, has led the league in assists with 12.0 per game, and has also averaged 28.5 PPG and 8.1 RPG for an overachieving Rockets team that won 15 of 17 games in December.

In a season full of incredible statistical achievements though, it has been Russell Westbrook who has arguably put off the most impressive stat line so far. Through 34 games, the Thunder point guard continues to average a triple-double, having scored a league-leading 30.9 PPG to go along with 10.7 APG and 10.5 RPG. As has been mentioned often this season, Westbrook would be the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double if he can keep up the pace.

With so many worth candidates this season, including a few I didn’t mention, who do you like so far in the NBA’s MVP race? Do you expect one player to take hold of the race in the second half, or will it be a toss-up at season’s end? Jump into the comments section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Hoops Links: Lillard, Grizzlies, Mavs

Every Sunday, we link to some of the very best work from around the basketball blogosphere. Do you have a link to a great basketball blog post – either your own or someone else’s – that you want to see featured on Hoops Rumors? Then you should send it to us at HoopsLinks@gmail.com. Here’s this week’s rundown …

Please send submissions for Hoops Links to Will at HoopsLinks@gmail.com.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/25/16 – 12/31/16

As we head into 2017, let’s take a look back at this week’s original content published by the Hoops Rumors staff:

  • Luke Adams broke down the roster counts for every team with the non-guaranteed salary deadline of January 10 looming.
  • Teams can start signing free agents to 10-day contracts in January, and 21 players on NBA rosters become trade-eligible on January 15. Luke Adams provides the details on all important January dates.
  • We let you know how you can track all of your favorite players on our Trade Rumors app.
  • Chris Crouse gave out his latest tips on fantasy basketball, including insights on Magic point man Elfrid Payton.
  • Luke Adams explored potential suitors for Kings forward Rudy Gay in our Trade Candidate series.
  • We gave you info on our Reverse Standings tool, which gives you a better idea of the June draft order.
  • Arthur Hill wrote his second installment of the 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, with Kevin Durant topping the list.
  • We asked readers to weigh in on a couple of topics in our Community Shootaround series.
    • There were a number of big stories in 2016, including the Warriors’ 73-win regular season, the Cavs’ first championship and Durant ditching the Thunder for Golden State. What do you think was the biggest story of the year?
    • Following up the Rudy Gay Trade Candidate piece as rumors continue to swirl, we sought out your opinion on this question: What team would be the best fit for Gay?

2016/17 NBA Roster Counts

For the first two months of the 2016/17 NBA season, virtually every team carried a full roster of 15 players. Most NBA teams wanted to see what they had on their 15-man rosters, assessing their offseason acquisitions, their young players, and their returning veterans.

Now that clubs have a better sense of where they stand, it makes sense to maintain a little more flexibility. A team with an open roster spot can easily add a free agent or acquire a player via trade without necessarily having to make a corresponding roster move. Ten-day contracts can be signed starting on January 5, so some teams will use their final roster spot to shuttle players in and out on short-term deals.

For the rest of the season, we’ll keep tabs on every team’s roster count in this space. This post, which can be found on the right-hand sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features,” will be updated frequently to reflect which teams have open roster spots, and which teams have players on non-guaranteed deals or 10-day contracts.

Here’s the current breakdown:

Teams with 15 fully guaranteed contracts:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Boston Celtics
  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Denver Nuggets
  • Detroit Pistons
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Houston Rockets
  • Indiana Pacers
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Memphis Grizzlies
  • Miami Heat
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • New York Knicks
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Orlando Magic
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • Sacramento Kings
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Toronto Raptors
  • Utah Jazz
  • Washington Wizards

Teams with more than 15 players due to having been granted a hardship exception:

(Numbers in parentheses indicate full-season contracts + 10-day contracts.)

  • Philadelphia 76ers (16)

Teams with full 15-man rosters featuring at least one player on a 10-day contract:

(Numbers in parentheses indicate full-season contracts + 10-day contracts.)

  • None

Teams with open roster spots:

(Number in parentheses indicates roster count, including full-season contracts and 10-day contracts.)

  • None

Last updated: 4-12-17 (11:21pm CT)

Submit Your Questions For Hoops Rumors Mailbag

We at Hoops Rumors love interacting with our readers. This is why we provide an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in our weekly mailbag feature, which is posted each Sunday.

Have a question regarding player movement, free agent rumors, the salary cap, the NBA draft, or the top storylines of the week? You can e-mail them here: hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com. Feel free to send emails throughout the week, but please be mindful that we may receive a sizable number of questions and likely won’t get to all of them.

If you missed out on any past mailbags and would like to catch up, you can view the full archives here.

NBA January Dates To Watch

Near the start of the 2016/17 campaign, we looked ahead and highlighted several dates and deadlines to watch on the NBA calendar throughout the rest of the season. While that list covered the general highlights, it’s worth taking a closer look, with January around the corner, at some of those key dates to keep an eye out for over the next month. Let’s dive in…

Non-guaranteed contracts becoming guaranteed:

January 10 is the date that all non-guaranteed salaries for 2016/17 will officially become guaranteed, but January 7 is really the day to watch. If a team wants to avoid having a salary become guaranteed, the player must clear waivers before January 10, which means he needs to be cut by January 7, at the latest.

Plenty of players without fully guaranteed salaries are in no danger of being waived within the next eight days, but several teams will take the opportunity to save a little money and open up a roster spot. We’ve already seen the Spurs do it with Nicolas Laprovittola and the Bulls do it with R.J. Hunter.

Here’s the full list of players on non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts, sorted by team and by position. It’s also worth noting that two Grizzlies players – Vince Carter and JaMychal Green – will have their 2016/17 salaries become guaranteed a little early, on January 1.

Teams can sign players to 10-day contracts:

Around the same time that many NBA clubs will be opening up a roster spot by waiving a non-guaranteed salary, teams will also be able to use those newly-created openings to sign players to 10-day contracts. Those 10-day deals, which can be signed as of January 5, give teams the opportunity to pick up a short-term injury replacement, or perhaps to get a brief look at a standout D-League player.

We have extensively outlined the details of 10-day contracts and explained how they work in our glossary entry on the subject.

More players becoming trade-eligible:

A huge percentage of the NBA’s offseason signees became eligible to be traded on December 15, but there are still many players who can’t be dealt. By the end of January, that list of players ineligible to be traded will shrink further, since there are two dozen players currently on track to have those restrictions lift this month.

January 15 is the key date, as 21 players will become trade-eligible as of that Sunday. That includes players who aren’t going anywhere, like LeBron James, Mike Conley, and DeMar DeRozan, but there are a handful of players on that list that could be involved in trade rumors in 2017 — the Trail Blazers, for instance, are likely to make at least one deal in the coming months, and they’ll have Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, and Meyers Leonard become trade-eligible on January 15.

The Blazers will have one more player become eligible to be dealt this month, in C.J. McCollum — the young guard will have his trade restrictions lifted on January 27, six months after he signed his extension. James Harden (January 9) and Ryan Kelly (January 31) also have unique trade-eligible dates next month.

Medical retirement for Nikola Pekovic?

Timberwolves center Nikola Pekovic has been ruled out for the entire 2016/17 season due to injuries, and he admitted this week that his health problems may force him into early retirement. If, one year after he last played in an NBA game, a player is ruled by an independent doctor to be medically unfit to continue his basketball career, his cap hit can be removed from his team’s books. The one-year anniversary of Pekovic’s last game with the Wolves arrives on January 31, so it will be interesting whether to see if the two sides pursue that medical retirement option at that point.

Other odds and ends:

There are a few other dates in January that are worth mentioning, but will perhaps come and go without any fanfare.

On January 10, mid-level and room exceptions – along with other cap exceptions – will start to pro-rate for the year, meaning a team with its full room exception available will no longer be able to offer the full $2.898MM amount to a free agent. Exceptions will decline in value by 1/170th per day, starting on January 10.

On January 12, one of the Cavaliers’ four trade exceptions will expire — it’s only worth about $845K, so it will almost certainly go unused.

January 15, meanwhile, is the last day that teams can apply for a disabled player exception to replace a player who is out for the season. A disabled player exception can give a club extra cap flexibility, though a team would still has to open up a roster spot to add a player using that DPE.

[Previously: NBA December dates to watch]

Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

Hoops Rumors lets you keep up with your favorite teams as they plot their moves, and we also provide ways to easily follow the latest on all of your favorite players and trade candidates. You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app is free and allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him.

Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box (located in the right sidebar); by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed; or, by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces. For example, Kevin Durant’s page is hoopsrumors.com/kevin-durant.

You can also set up an RSS feed for any of our player pages by adding /feed to the end of the page URL, like this: hoopsrumors.com/demarcus-cousins/feed. Entering that URL into the reader of your choice should enable you to get updates whenever we write about DeMarcus Cousins. It works for teams, too. If you’re a Kings fan, you can enter hoopsrumors.com/sacramento-kings/feed into your reader and stay on top of all the latest from Sacramento.

In addition to players and teams, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts. You can keep tabs on news related to the Collective Bargaining Agreement right here. Items about the NBA D-League can be found on this page. You can simply scan our top stories here. Again, you can set up a feed with any of these pages by adding /feed to the end of the URL.